2009 wins
LA Angels 97
Texas Rangers 87
Seattle Mariners 85
Oakland A's 75
The AL West won the most games on average but it was also the luckiest division, with the pythagorean wins coming in at 83. Pythagorous says that the AL East was the best division in baseball last season, just ahead of the West. Seattle were the biggest winners in the pythagorous differential, picking up eight wins more than their runs scored/allowed would have projected.
2009 Pythagorous wins
LA Angels 93 (-4 from actual)
Texas Rangers 84 (-3)
Seattle Mariners 77 (-8)
Oakland A's 81 (+6)
For 2010 Vegas Insider is projecting a close race
Vegas Insider 2010 Over/Unders
LA Angels 84
Seattle Mariners 83
Texas Rangers 83
Oakland A's 78
However some of the standings predictors have a different opinion, and they differ in who will win and who will come last. The variance between the two predictors listed for Seattle wins is 12 from Pecota at 89 to Chone at 77. The A's have an 8 win spread between the systems with Vegas predicting they will finish below either prediction.
Baseball Projection (Chone) 2010 Over/Unders
Texas Rangers 85
LA Angels 83
Oakland A's 79
Seattle Mariners 77
Baseball Prospectus (Pecota) 2010 Over/Unders
Seattle Mariners 89
Oakland A's 87
Texas Rangers 85
LA Angels 80
Based on the above there is an argument as to why each team will win the division. If any team can win what are the keys for each of the teams in 2010?
LA Angels of Anaheim - Can they survive the loss of John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero?
The loss of Lackey, Figgins and Vladdy, and replacing them with replacement level players, should cost the Angels 11 wins. According to Fangraphs, Figgins was worth 6 wins above a replacement player (WAR) in 2009, Lackey was plus 4 and Vladdy was plus 1. Replacing those three departed players are Joel Pineiro, Brandon Wood and Hideki Matsui. Pineiro is not as good a pitcher as John Lackey but he could be within a win or two of him at plus 2 or plus 3 WAR. Pineiro pitched very well for St. Louis last season but it remains to be seen whether the Dave Duncan effect wears off now that he has left St. Louis. Several pitchers have pitched well in St. Louis but not as well once they left Missouri. Brandon Wood was once one of the top ranked prospects in baseball but he has had trouble establishing himself and getting the respect of manager Mike Scioscia. Wood has shown a streaky side so far and he needs to hit at a reasonable clip in April or Maicer Izturis could step in and take his place. Wood will likely deliver 4 to 5 fewer wins than Figgins. Finally Matsui should do a little better than Vladdy given Vladdy's fall-off in 2009. All in all then the impact of the departure of those three players and the value of their replacements should, in theory, reduce the Angels from a 93 win team to an 88 win team.
None of the projection systems put the Angels at 88 wins, why so? In 2009 the Angels benefitted from a career year by Kendry Morales (300 ba and 34 home runs) and a solid year by Bobby Abreu. If we look at the 2010 lineup it is solid with few holes, Brandon Wood might be the biggest question mark. At catcher Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis are an effective platoon. In the infield Morales, Kendrick, Aybar, Wood and Izturis can all play at league level with Kendricks defense and health, and Wood's bat being the big uncertainties. In the outfield and at DH Matsui, Hunter,
Rivera and Abreu are each solid too. Anaheim's offense is very balanced and they can get performance from every position in the order.
The rotation is anchored by Jered Weaver backed by 2009 newcomer Scott Kazmir; Joe Saunders; Joel Pineiro; and Ervin Santana. Santana was not very good in 2009 as he battled injuries all season, if he is back to his old form the Angels pitching will be in good shape. Other than santana the other four pitchers pitched well last season and are expected to repeat their performance in 2010.
The bullpen includes Fernando Rodney, a recovered Scot Shields, last seasons closer Brian Fuentes, hard-thrower Kevin Jepsen plus others. As usual with the Angels the bullpen is strong.
All-in-all this is a solid team with few holes. The core is getting a little older so injuries may be an issue and they might not be able to be as aggressive as they once were on the bases but this team looks like a mid to high 80's winner to me.
How does Anaheim win? They need to play up to their potential and have the "new guys" perform well enough that the "departed guys" are forgotten.
Seattle Mariners - Can the addition of Figgins, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley offset the expected fall-off from their 2009 over-achievement? How many starts will Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Eric Bedard make?
Seattle won 85 games in 2009 and with the addition of Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley the Mariners expect to contend in 2010. Baseball Prospectus likes the Mariners and have them on top of their predictions for the AL West this season.
Seattle increased their wins totals by 24 games in 2009, they lost 101 games in 2008. Teams that make such a big forward jump in wins often slip back the following year, the big jump was usually helped by big years from several players who regress to the mean in the second year. In 2009 the Mariners improvement was helped by newcomer Franklin Gutierrez who hit and fielded well, as well as Russell Branyan who came over from the Brewers and hit 31 home runs and Jose Lopez had a big year hitting 25 home runs.
For 2010 the Mariners will probably have rookie Adam Moore and veteran Rob Johnson behind the plate, Kenji Johjima has gone back to Japan. The infield will be manned by Ryan Garko/Casey Kotchman; Figgins; Jack Wilson and Lopez. This is a good defensive infield but I much prefer the Anaheim bats. In the outfield the Mariners have Ichiro; Gutierrez; and some combination of Milton Bradley; Ryan Langerhans and Eric Byrnes. Ken Griffey is the DH. The Mariners are hoping that several players who struggled elsewhere will find their bats in the northwest. Garko; Kotchman; Wilson; Langerhans and Byrnes have all had mixed records with other teams, as has Milton Bradley but for other reasons. With Bradley's injury tendencies and temperment the Mariners will do well to get 120 games from him. I see this offense as being weaker than the Angels. Other than Ichiro and Figgins who here is an established bona-fide hitter? Lopez had a strong 2009 but he is switching from second base to third base, that could hurt his mental preparations. Gutierrez had a good 2009 but it might have been a career year. Moore, Johnson, Garko, Kotchman, Wilson, Langerhans and Byrnes are not offensive strong points.
On the mound the Mariners have the two best pitchers in the division, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. Those two are the strength of the pitching staff. However Lee has a pulled oblique and might miss some or all of April. Obliques can be slow to heal and if he hurts it again he could be out for a long stretch. Behind them are Ian Snell; Ryan Rowland-Smith; and Doug Fister with Eric Bedard possibly coming back sometime from May though June. If Hernandez, Lee and Bedard could make 100 starts between them the Mariners would have a good chance to win the division. However today it looks like 85 would be the top end of the range. Substituting a number five starter for one of those pitchers would knock up to three wins off the Mariners expected record, those three wins could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
In the pen the Mariners have ex-Jay Brandon League as well as David Aardsma who emerged as their closer last season.
How does Seattle win? Obviously a lot is riding on King Felix and Cliff Lee staying injury free, Eric Bedard making a quick return from his injury, and the Mariners finding two other reliable starters. If some of the less heralded starters step up the Mariners could win, but I think their lack of depth across all positions will hurt them and I see them finishing behind the Angels.
Texas Rangers - Can the young guys deliver for the Rangers, and can the old guys stay healthy?
Texas has brought a lot of young talent to the major leagues recently, Neftali Feliz; Elvis Andrus; Jarrod Saltalamacchia; Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland. The Rangers have recently had good hitting teams, their pitching has generally been below par. The 2010 team still has some good hitters: Ian Kinsler; Michael Young and Nelson Cruz. But they have some questions behind the plate and with the production abilities of Chris Davis; Elvis Andrus; Josh Hamilton; Vladimir Guerrero and Julio Borbon. At catcher Saltalamacchia was injured midway through 2009 and has struggled to come back this spring. Backup Taylor Teagarden has not hit yet in the majors. Davis was a K machine last season and didn't live up to his promise from his 2008 debut. Andrus is still very young and his defense is ahead of his hitting. Borbon is another rookie who reportedly is very fast but again his defense is better than his offense at this point. Josh Hamilton can hit but he is regularly injured and has missed time already in spring training with injuries. Finally Vladdy is getting old and his body is breaking down. Last season he was just a little above average, is there much left in his tank?
Finally Ian Kinsler has been injured this spring and the Rangers are unsure whether he will be ready for opening day. So the offense of the Rangers has a lot of questions and a lot is riding on all those hitters to have good seasons.
The mound picture is not so clear. Rich Harden is the Rangers newest starter and reports on him this spring, and in particular his velocity, have been mixed. Scott Feldman is the number two coming off a very good 2009. Tommy Hunter was pencilled in the rotation but has an oblique strain and probably won't be ready until mid-April. The last three spots are being contested by Matt Harrison, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Brandon McCarthy and Derek Holland. It looks like Neftali Feliz will be in the bullpen. at this point Colby Lewis will be the number three and CJ WIlson is getting close to locking up the number four spot.
My opinion is that the Rangers have too many questions and while some players will step up others won't and they will finish around 500.
How does Texas win? Rich Harden needs to start 25 games with his "A" stuff; Josh Hamilton needs to play 150 games; Scott Feldman needs to maintain his 2009 form; and Davis, a catcher, Andrus, Vladdy and Borbon need to hit.
Oakland Athletics - Can promise turn into performance? Can duct tape hold the rotation together?
The Oakland rotation is not the healthiest group in baseball. The rotation will be made up of the oft-injured Ben Sheets, the oft-injured Justin Duchscherer, the 2009 injured Dallas Braden, the rookie Brett Anderson and most likely the other rookie Trevor Cahill. Sheets misses time most seasons with a variety of injuries so counting on him for 33 starts would be optimistic. Duchscherer missed most of 2007 and 2009 with a different variety of injuries so double up on the Sheets comment. Braden missed two months last season with a foot problem which has been partially corrected so he too has a risk label. Finally Anderson and Cahill pitched around 175 innings last season up from the 110'ish they pitched the previous year so they too have been labelled.
Other than the risk factors the A's could have a nice rotation. Sheets when he is healthy is a premier pitcher, Duchscherer and Braden pitched well when healthy over the last two seasons while Anderson has the potential to be the best of them all. Cahill is fighting Gio Gonzalez and Vince Mazzaro for the fifth spot. When all five of these guys are healthy their rotation can go head to head with Anaheim and Seattle.
The A's bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Closer Andrew Bailey was the rookie of the year last season while underarmer Brad Ziegler and Michael Wuertz are also nasty and can close when required. Lefty Craig Breslow rounds out the top of the bullpen.
The A's lineup is not as strong as their pitching. Kurt Suzuki is perhaps their best all-round player and underrated too. Around the infield the lineup includes Daric Barton; Mark Ellis; Cliff Pennington; and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Jake Fox and Jack Cust can take a turn in the infield or DH. The outfield includes some combination of Coco Crisp; Ryan Sweeney; Rajai Davis; Gabe Gross and Travis Buck. In some ways the A's are similar to Seattle, very good pitching and defense (mostly) with questionable hitting. Other than Kouzmanoff the A's can field above average defenders at every position. The above average hitters are fewer in number, ZiPS lists only Cust, Barton and Sweeney as above 101 OPS+, Pennington and Crisp are forecast in the 80's OPS+.
How does Oakland win? Injury free pitching and over-achieving hitters. It can be done but I wouldn't bet on it.
Summary
I believe the Angels will once again prevail in the AL West with approx. 88 wins. The healthiest of Seattle and Texas will come in second at 84 wins with the injury-prone team at 81 wins. Oakland will win 75-79 games.
Agreed?
