Fien's got some nice numbers - though say what you will about minor-league relievers - but I don't know where he's going to fit in the Toronto pen.

So, I was curious what happened with Fien and checked out his 2009 game log. He only pitched in one meaningful situation (on July 31) and faced 2 batters, giving up a ground ball, a fly ball and a line drive.  Whatever they were, they both fell in for hits.

As Ryan said, he's got a nice minor league record but at this stage, he is injury-insurance.  Never a bad idea. 
 

Walton was just on PTS with McCowan.

I heard about the last half. Nothing earth-shattering - he's pretty positive about everything, as one would expect this time of year. However, I was impressed with him. He was well spoken, sounded intelligent and seems like a good guy

One thing walton said was that McGowan is on pace to get into a live game mid-month.  That would make him a long shot for the rotation.

Due to days off, the Jays only need a 5th starter 3x in April, on the 14th, 19th, and 29th. If I had to guess now, Romero, Marcum, Morrow, and Rzepczynski will make the rotation, and Tallet will be the designated 5th man/swingman until McGowan is ready to join the rotation, ideally by April 29th or May 4th.

They are much better off if McGowan isn't ready to answer the bell.  Putting him on the DL and letting him rehab in the minors is much better then keeping someone not ready to pitch in the major leagues on the roster from day 1. 

Jordan Bastian has a nice story about the three new Jays.

When you're a young player," Wallace said, "the thing you dream about is having an organization that wants to push their youth and kind of rebuild with that and not go out and maybe sign the big names and stuff, but give their guys the chance. ... It's fun to just come over and be a part of that, and I think as we grow together we're going to have a competitive team in Toronto

There was no implication that McGowan would hang out on the MLB roster until he's ready; 3 to 5 starts in the minors should be more than enough to get him up to speed, assuming there are no setbacks along the way (he has a full month in the minors on the DL before they have to do something with him). Having Tallet in the rotation as the #5 to open the season opens a spot for someone like Zech Zinicola in the pen, and allows more time for the arms race to sort itself out.

Due to days off, the Jays only need a 5th starter 3x in April, on the 14th, 19th, and 29th.

I could see them keeping a 5 man rotation even with the off days. With such a young rotation it will help keep the innings spread out a bit more. I don't see it hurting the guys to pitch on 5 days rest instead of 4 once and a while.

In theory you have to be hurt to be put on the disabled list.  You can't just put him there because you'd like to not pass him through waivers.  If he's throwing innings in spring training and seems healthy it puts them in a tough spot.

I really like the Fein claim. He was good to very good at every minor league stop and MLBTR (not sure if it was Tim or...) pointed out that with several guys lacking options (which Fein has) he serves an important role to provide depth if we lost a couple of the guys in front of him when we try to cut the roster down.

I also think the discussion here of TRYING to DL McGowan until the end of the month and letting Tallet pick up the two odd April starts is a solid idea. The only drawback I see to it is the potential of tapping out Morrow's available innings too soon but by that point in the season we'll have plenty of options.


On Walton's discussion-

>I like his praise of RR Cool-J

>I worry about his caution on Marcum

> like his assesment of Morrow

In theory you have to be hurt to be put on the disabled list.  You can't just put him there because you'd like to not pass him through waivers.  If he's throwing innings in spring training and seems healthy it puts them in a tough spot.

If his arm is up to speed, he'll make the rotation, because the Jays have every reason to see what they can get from McGowan. If it isn't, they will be justified in DLing him for a month, because he is still building up his pitch count/arm strength. This has nothing to do with trying to sneak him through waivers, because a healthy McGowan belongs on the MLB club. There isn't really a scenario where even if McGowan is healthy and throwing on schedule he doesn't make the rotation, putting them in a tough spot.

I know that's why you said in theory, but i don't believe that applies here - he was held back due to his rehabilitation. It's not a stretch in the slightest to consider his arm build-up as part of that rehab - it doesn't seem any different than rehab starts in the minors. The only caveat I'll throw in is if he's at 5 innings or 80 pitches in his last ST start, then it becomes tough since he should be at 90+ in his next outing.

I said 'in theory' because by rule you need to be injured by teams have flaunted that for years.  I highly doubt he'll be ready for the rotation in April, unless they are punting this season so quickly that they are willing to let him go out and make 50 pitch starts.  If he isn't on the DL and he isn't in the rotation, it's going to be very difficult to get him the work he needs to re-enter the rotation this season. 

I'd guess that rehab from shoulder surgery and knee surgery is enough. He's just started throwing from a mound a couple weeks ago. Just because he isn't injured at this moment doesn't mean he doesn't qualify for the DL - he is in the recovery process from two surgeries. If he isn't in the rotation, it's 99% likely it's because he isn't ready yet. This is because he was on a very restrictive throwing regimen. This is part of his rehabbing from knee and shoulder surgery. That sounds like a DL trip to me. There isn't really any gray area involved here.

I wonder if it's not better just to stick McGowan in the bullpen, at least to start the year. Keep the strain on his arm as minimal as possible, working some middle relief until the all-star break. He's had his shoulder and elbow repaired now, so I'm concerned about his ability to stay healthy as a starter.

Exactly what I was thinking, Ryan.

This would also leave open the possibility that the club may decide, with personnel changes happening around mid-season, that McGowan is better suited in the longer term to the ace reliever role, in light of his arm injuries. 

If you can get 100-120ip a year out of him as an "ace reliever", it may be the way to go - it's a good idea for a pitcher like Rich Harden.

You mean Texas Rangers (projected) Opening Day starter Rich Harden?

Could always look at being creative and going with the 6 or more man rotation.

Have those who are healthy and whole (Romero for example) go full games, then have the #4 and/or #5 slot being shared between two guys - for example McGowan goes 4 innings followed by Cecil for another 4 innings. Over 32 starts each would get 128 innings under that plan. If after a month or so one of them is doing much better than the other you just add innings to the one doing well and, eventually, demote the other to the pen (traditional use) or AAA.

This is how things go in spring training, so you'd basically be extending the spring but in games that count. Since the Jays are not likely to contend this year (to put it mildly) why not do that? Also could do it again later in the year as guys get closer to inning limits - mix and match so two guys get 4 innings each (alternate who starts) and they can pitch until the end of September.

Jose Bautista's home run off Cole Hamels to open the game should silence the sceptics, especially when he followed it up with a double off J. Ramirez.  Even more encouraging was Morrow's sparkling two innings pitched: no hits, a walk and two strikeouts against Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez...  Wow.  Carry on, gang.

Have those who are healthy and whole (Romero for example) go full games, then have the #4 and/or #5 slot being shared between two guys - for example McGowan goes 4 innings followed by Cecil for another 4 innings. Over 32 starts each would get 128 innings under that plan. If after a month or so one of them is doing much better than the other you just add innings to the one doing well and, eventually, demote the other to the pen (traditional use) or AAA.

The full-on tandem starter regime is not likely to happen, but this would be a cool first step.  Let a thousand flowers bloom.

Jose Bautista's home run off Cole Hamels to open the game should silence the sceptics

In the first week of spring training games? No, it shouldn't.

No, it certainly won't silence the skeptics.  But if anyone on the Jays roster has a chance to win the Marco Scutaro award this year -- for the veteran utility guy who suddenly has a breakthrough season -- it might be Bautista.

I like Bautista quite a bit, but he's a career 227/316/366 hitter against RHP. That's not the guy you want getting 4-5 at-bats per game. Most of his value is tied up in his defensive versatility and ability to hit LHP, so he's not likely to shine as the everyday RF and leadoff hitter.

He is a 275/359/487 hitter in the leadoff spot, for whatever 93 games is worth.

I might help my case if I learned how to spell skeptics, lol.  Adios, Alex Rios.

Bautista would have been a helluva upgrade on Garth Iorg.  You could make him the everyday third baseman anytime, and hit him 5th or 7th, flipping with Snider depending on who is pitching.  That might happen in the second half.  At this point, as a third baseman, he's an average player with unusually high platoon splits so far in his career.

I'm starting to wonder if Bautista has as good a shot at Type B status as Overbay. He very well could get 650+ PA.

Anything's possible, but I suspect he'd be one of those fringey Type Bs that either a) will accept arbitration, or b) no one will want to sign at the expense of a draft pick.

You don't give up a draft pick for signing a type B.

Bautista would never be a starter on a contending team. I don't even like him as a backup personally. I'm willing to put up with him this year but the sooner he is gone the better.

There would be no reason to be hesitant about him accepting arbitration if he's playing at a level that vaults him to Type B status - at the very least he's a valuable utility player at 4m, which is a reasonable raise on 2.4m.

The Blue Jays are going to reinvent bullpen roles with Cito Gaston at the helm?  How about he hits Snider higher then 9, then we'll move him up to the advanced level classes.

If he's the regular leadoff, there's  a good chance that Bautista will have a career year.

"Because we're not quite sure about the pitching, I think the strength of this club right now has got to be the hitters."

—Manager Cito Gaston, assessing his team's strengths and weaknesses.

If he's the regular leadoff, there's  a good chance that Bautista will have a career year.

True.  Only thing to be determined is whether it'll be a career best or career worst.

I expect the Jays hitting to be average at best (and more likely below-average), but there could be an interesting surprise or two in players like Encarnacion, Snider, Ruiz and Dopirak.

Some things I would love to see in '10 (some of these are more probable than others):

- McGowan, Marcum and Litsch returning to full health (this might be the biggest potential boon for the Jays)
- Brandon Morrow staying healthy and finding his mojo (or at least his command of the strike zone)
- Wells returning to form (at least somewhat) with an OPS of 800+ and league-average defence
- Strong seasons from Overbay, Downs and Frasor (for trade purposes--hey, I'm thinking about the future)
- Arencibia regaining solid prospect status
- Health and productivity from the Doc prospects: Drabek, Wallace and D'Arnaud
- Snider making incremental gains (he doesn't have to bust out IMO--he just turned 22--he just has to keep getting better)
- *One* of Jackson, Ahrens, Tolisano, Eiland, etc stepping up and finally having a decent season to help salvage the '07 draft
- Some intelligent use of over-slot bonuses in the 2010 draft
- A pleasantly surprising season from one of the semi-salvaged pitchers (Eveland, Fien, Henn, Gregg et al.)
- A good first season for Chad Jenkins

WOW!

I just watched the Yanks Jays game on MLB/TV - BUT - I watched it on my HDTV by hooking it up to my laptop.

WOW!

This is going to be fun! Can't wait to be watching four games at once on their four way split screen.

Bautista would never be a starter on a contending team.

There's nothing even remotely unusual about players of Bautista's quality starting for contending teams. Just looking at last year, we can assemble the following group of starting outfielders (and Dhs) on contending teams who had an OPS+ the same or lower than Jose Bautista in 2009:

Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Elssbury, David Ortiz, B.J. Upton, Gabe Gross, Pat Burrel, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, David Murphy, Andruw Jones, Wladimir Balentien, Ken Griffey, Jeremy Hermida, Garret Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn.

It's probably more unusual when a contender doesn't have someone only as good as Bautista playing regularly...

Magpie is the best writer/poster on this site, so he knows better then anyone that Bautista hit 202/331/333 against right handers and his overall OPS+ isn't comparable to players like Ellsbury who had almost 700 plate appearances and wasn't hidden against right handers. 

He isn't wrong that a player like Bautista could play everyday for a contender because plenty of worse players have but... come on.

Ellsbury played Center Field, not a corner.  Ellsbury stole 70 bases against only 12 times caught.  Ellsbury had a higher OBP and SLG.  Ellsbury is left handed so his OPS+ gets dropped by a park factor for a stadium that highly favors right handed hitters.

It's complete nonsense to try and say that Bautista was as good as Ellsbury last year, never mind realistic expectations going forward.  Either it was intellectually dishonest or it was stupid, I was giving him the benefit of the doubt.

The last word I'll say on this.  It is unusual for a right-handed hitter to have sustained large platoon differentials.  If you were going to project Bautista to full-time play, you would regress his platoon differential to some significant degree and his overall projection would not change much.  He had many more at-bats against RHP than LHP over the last two years.

Meanwhile, it's not going to matter much.  Aaron Hill is reaching base 90% of the time, Vernon Wells, Randy Ruiz and Adam Lind are knocking the cover off the ball, so even if Bautista falls back to earth, this team is bound for glory!

I don't think Bautista is better than Melky Cabrera or B.J. Upton. But I haven't actually given it any thought, and don't intend to. I don't really care. I'm just saying what should be blindingly obvious - it's not at all unusual for players of Batista's general productivity to play more or less regularly for teams that win 85 plus games.

Hey, the Red Sox plan to give every day playing time to a guy who's put up an OPS+ of 87 and 97 in his two major league seasons. And they're going to play this guy in left field. I think they'll manage to be contenders anyway.

Reds? Who played for the Reds?

Wladimir Balentien is the guy I believe he's referring to when he mentions the Reds.