(reposted from other thread)

First lets get this off the table: Jose Valverde would like to remind you that offering arb to a middling reliever, let alone a good closer, is a fool's gamble. do that and you WON'T get draft picks because no one is giving up a pick for Kevin-f'n- Gregg.

Second, we have enough arms that if Roenicke needed to be in AAA he would have been.

Third - what team gives up a good prospect for Frasor when THEY could have signed Gregg? Not to say Frasor isn't better, he clearly (to me) IS - but is he ENOUGH better than someone gives up a solid prospect for the difference? I doubt it seriously. Downs maybe but only because he's left handed.

Forth (referencing a different post) - Even Gregg's "good" season was pretty marginal. His best ERA+ was 127. for reference, Frasor's was 173 last year. Even Shawn Camp's was 124 and against tougher competition.

I just saw on the TSN website that Hayhurst is having "exploratory shoulder surgery" and won't be ready for spring training.

Sour.

Kevin Gregg is better than people give him credit for being.

Is he a shoe-in closer? No, but neither are Frasor or Downs. If this a precursor to a trade... fine. If he bumps Camp or Accardo... fine. He is better than both.

Personally, I hope this means Downs is moving and we get something for him before he totally falls apart.

With MLB calling out the Marlins' pocketed shared revenues and (if I recall correctly) the Pirates too, this could be very much be a move to appease Bud Selig.  A 60 million dollar payroll is probably approaching the point of generating a small profit, once you factor in all revenue streams. So if you had to add an unnecessary player to the team to keep the welfare cheques coming in, you probably could worse than a mediocre relief pitcher.

With MLB calling out the Marlins' pocketed shared revenues and (if I recall correctly) the Pirates too, this could be very much be a move to appease Bud Selig.  A 60 million dollar payroll is probably approaching the point of generating a small profit, once you factor in all revenue streams. So if you had to add an unnecessary player to the team to keep the welfare cheques coming in, you probably could worse than a mediocre relief pitcher.

Also according to Bastian (via Twitter) the deal hasn't yet been finalized and is currently held up by "some routine physical-related steps"... here's hoping the Jays find a reason to back out of the deal.

From Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzepczynski, Cecil - whom do you trade?   From Purcey, Mills, Ray, Richmond, McGowan - whom do you trade?   From Downs, Frasor, Tallet, Accardo, Camp - whom do you trade? 

From each group you must trade one.   From that group of three, find a trade.   We need a Shortstop (core) and a Right Fielder (core).   Who's got what?   Signing Gregg means A.A. is working on something. let's see if we can figure it out. 

I was just saying even if there's a worse-case scenario with Hayhurst, the Jays still have ample arms in the pen. But I understand the clarification to make sure false rumours aren't spread.

I agree with Mike about service time. I think you saw elements of that debate play out in the discussion here on our opinions of where Morrow could and should be pitching in early 2010.

I don't see much point to the signing, but if he has a great start he becomes trade bait

I'm not a fan of acquiring someone whose main purpose is to serve as trade bait. What if Gregg goes crazy with 15 saves in April and May and an ERA around 1.00. Who will that fool? Who will suddenly decide he has morphed into Mariano Rivera?

I think fans overvalue their teams' potential trade chits (or chips, as some prefer). For every $2M signing who "can be moved at the deadline", how many really get moved at the deadline and for a decent exchange? How much of this trade bait talk is based on empirical evidence and how much is wishcasting? I won't pretend that I have studied the matter, but my instincts lie with the latter hypothesis.

I still don't understand why everyone is so tied up in knots about this. It is only 2.75 million for some more insurance. Who really believes the team will come out of Spring Training with every player healthy? Last, this team needs all the turnover it can get to just get a new start.

BTW, who else thinks Wells is going to have a monster year now that the team isn't going to try and be competitive?

This might help John, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions ; Wiki is a good help.   As is Cot's, http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html .   Then you have to search out player's records.   I think there are better choices available?!

- OR -

I have people whom I trust with the accuracy of information they put forth (be it from Television, Newspapers, Radio or 'net).   Their reputations ride on the sincerity of the data.   Three people say same thing (looks, walks, talks like a duck) and I find supporting data, it must be true.   I would be pleasantly surprised to be wrong.

Ruiz is 25 and would be blocked by Wallace and Lind at 1B and DH, respectively.

Serious question - is there a realistic chance that Gregg, if he miraculously puts up a 4.09 ERA, 1.58 K/BB and 33 saves to become type A, will [a] decline arbitration AND [b] actually get signed? If the answer is 'yes,' even though Gregg wasn't offered arb this winter, and if someone can convince me there's a chance Gregg actually survives the AL East, it might move me off the ledge a bit.

He's sure to decline arb with those numbers - only 45 days of his salary is guaranteed.  Would you take a guarantee of about $300k or take your chance in free agency, though he wouldn't be signed by a team that stood to lose a first rounder.  Still that's over half the league who may be interested.

It's more likely though that he performs himself down into the Type B category.  Which would probably be optimal.

But I'd ask this:  if we made this signing and then traded Brandon League for Brandon Morrow, would you be happier?  AA said through a Bastian tweet that he should be thought of as League's replacement.

well said 92-93