Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Baseball America's Top 10 Jays Prospects Redux

Baseball America's Top 10 Jays Prospects Redux

The biblical scripture known as Baseball America arrived in my mailbox yesterday and it's the issue I look forward to the most every year - the Top 10 Prospects for the American League East!

Featuring the Orioles Brian Matusz on the cover, it contains a revision of the Jays Top 10 list that BA posted on its website last month. The changes reflect the three prospects added in the Roy Halladay deal and each of them ranked highly on the revamped list.

Righthander Kyle Drabek is the Jays new #1 prospect according to Baseball America, bumping fellow righty Zach Stewart from the perch.

Baseball America's new Top 10 Jays Prospects list...........

Kyle Drabek, RHP
Brett Wallace, 3B
Zach Stewart, RHP
J.P. Arencibia, C
Travis D'Arnaud, C
Chad Jenkins, RHP
David Cooper, 1B
Henderson Alvarez, RHP
Jake Marisnick, OF
Josh Roenicke, RHP

Along with Drabek vaulting to the top spot, Brett Wallace grabs the number two spot on the list while Travis D'Arnaud makes it to number five. Other changes see Stewart dropping from one to three while Arencibia falls from two to four. The others drop three spots each with Jenkins going from three to six, Cooper from four to seven, Alvarez from five to eight, Marisnick from six to nine and Roenicke from seven to ten.

Dropping out of the top 10 are LHP Brad Mills, SS Justin Jackson and C Carlos Perez - they were ranked eight through ten respectively on the initial list.

If you want another take on Drabek's abilities, check this out.

Discuss, debate, pontificate - Bauxites! The floor is yours!

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 02:22 AM EST.

Baseball America's Top 10 Jays Prospects Redux | 39 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

jmoney - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 09:14 AM EST (#211069) #

Well if you have to trade the face of your franchise then getting three new prospects in your top five is one way to do it.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 09:44 AM EST (#211071) #

Well, at least they've got the top 2 prospects right. I wonder if the BB Minor League crew might venture a pre-season top 15, what with the new additions. I'd pay more attention to BB's list.

92-93 - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 02:44 PM EST (#211086) #

At what point does JP Arencibia enter into the useless, Curtis Thigpen category? Curtis kept showing up on these prospect lists too...

PeterG - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 03:00 PM EST (#211092) #

Arencibia is nowhere close to that category. Had he better plate discipline he would easily be a top 5 prospect. He can hit for power and maintain a decent BA. He needs to become more selective at the plate and hopefully that will happen this year in AAA. His defence is regarded as good in particular his throwing. A friend of mine who saw him at Vegas last year often asks why is not in Toronto. Thigpen never had this level of ability - not even close.

rpriske - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 03:28 PM EST (#211095) #

Some new, minor-league signings: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100113&content_id=7911150

Also, if you heard the Carlos Delgado rumours, apparently they have been shot down.

binnister - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 03:36 PM EST (#211097) #

So, where does this put the the Jay's in relation to other clubs prospects?

If they were in the lower 3rd, are they now middle of the pack?

92-93 - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 04:16 PM EST (#211098) #

It's hard to maintain a decent BA when your MiLB OBP is .305.

ogator - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 09:25 PM EST (#211100) #

Such a result is kind of a two-edged sword. The high ranking might be saying something significant about the players that the Jays acquired. It is just as likely to be saying something profound about the prospects that they already had.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 10:16 PM EST (#211101) #

Definitely a much-improved list (consider where the top ten would be without the Halladay and Rolen trades...not pretty). But it's also a top-heavy list. The dropoff after Jenkins looks pretty steep. And I would rank D'Arnaud and Jenkins ahead of Arencibia (from a long-term perspective).

BA devoted very little time to the Jays' system in a recent roundtable discussion of AL East prospects. The consensus was something like, "the less said, the better," although AA did receive some kudos for acquiring good value in the Doc trade.

brent - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 10:24 PM EST (#211102) #

This upcoming June draft is critical that the Jays get some top talent. If it's a deep draft (like I keep hearing), I don't want to hear from AA and Beest that players were not the right value. You don't get any better value than picking out of the draft. Even if they paid relatively a little more, it doesn't matter because the team needs all the young talent they can get right now.

92-93 - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 10:54 PM EST (#211103) #

BA devoted very little time to the Jays' system in a recent roundtable discussion of AL East prospects. The consensus was something like, "the less said, the better," although AA did receive some kudos for acquiring good value in the Doc trade.

I too listened to that recently, and it's pathetic that BA continues to ignore the Blue Jays when 3 of the guys they acquired were originally in BA's Midseason Top 25 Prospect rankings (Stewart was taken out in the final version, and apparently just missed). That they can continue to pretend Toronto doesn't have a strong farm, especially when you consider the amount of pre-arbitration talent on the team, is downright bias/hatred towards the Jays.

92-93 - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 11:15 PM EST (#211105) #

If it's a deep draft (like I keep hearing),

i've heard more than once (Keith Law being one of the sources) that it's not a particularly deep draft, especially on the position player side, and that 2011's looks much stronger.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 13 2010 @ 11:54 PM EST (#211106) #

Well, the Jays should be selecting pretty high in 2011, too. :)

Btw, is anyone going to sign Barajas? Having that extra Type B pick would be nice. Speaking of which, can R-Bar still accept the Jays' arbitration offer?

To be fair to BA, the roundtable discussion was pretty effusive in its praise of the Jays' farm system last off-season, if I remember correctly (that was when players like Jackson, Cooper, Campbell, Arencibia and Emaus were still fairly highly regarded). Maybe the writers were hurt that all those prospects fell flat, so they decided to snub the organization this year.

92-93 - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 02:49 AM EST (#211107) #

Barajas may be waiting for Bengie Molina to sign, as he may be those teams' second choice.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:29 AM EST (#211108) #

The question should be: "Is John Buck our Starting Catcher". it is highly possible Rod Barajas will return to the team. Just go to http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html and http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/mets-close-to-signing-bengie-molina.html#disqus_thread . You will find the useless NY Mets holding up the signing of Benjie Molina (35). Rod Barajas and Yorvit Torrealba are the remaining cream of the crop. Hopefully AA is waiting until people "become a little desperate" before making a move (Pitchers and Catchers report in approx. 30 days).

Why BA does what it does is a mystery to most, including BA.

Jdog - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 09:06 AM EST (#211112) #

Arencibia is definitely going to be a big league Catcher. Bengie Molina put up the line of .265/.285/.442 that offensive line and a throwing arm that has to now be in the below average category and the base running skills of an old Mo Vaughn will still land a 2 year deal for millions of dollars. That alone should let you know that Arencibia is a nice prospect. He may not be a sexy 5 tool stud, but as catchers go the bar is pretty low right now.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 09:27 AM EST (#211113) #

He may not be a sexy 5 tool stud

Metaphorically speaking. Arencibia will hopefully get healthy and tear up Las Vegas as Snider did last year, in order to earn a shot. That shouldn't be until late next year, at the earliest. At this point, between Arencibia, D'Arnaud and Perez (who I like the best), the club is well-positioned behind the plate. Would that this were the case at third base and centerfield...

ayjackson - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 09:57 AM EST (#211114) #

It would be bad business if Colorado ended up with Torrealba and we ended up with Barajas. We should just agree to sign each other's back up so that we both get the compensatory pick.

Denoit - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 11:46 AM EST (#211115) #

I too listened to that recently, and it's pathetic that BA continues to ignore the Blue Jays

If you listen to the December 18th podcast you woudl know they spend nearly half the show talking about the Halladay trade, the prospects invovled and the state of the Jays fanchise. Its probably a big reason why they left them out of the next podcast because it was already covered. I think they do a good job at keeping every team involved. The Jays by no means are ignored.

Flex - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 12:13 PM EST (#211116) #

"We should just agree to sign each other's back up so that we both get the compensatory pick."

Agreed, but ... wouldn't that officially be considered collusion?

TamRa - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 02:29 PM EST (#211118) #

somewhere in this thread someone posed the question of what happens to our pick of RB signs a minor league deal...

This dude (Marc Topkin):

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/shouse-gets-minor-league-deal-red-sox-rays-dont-get-extra-draft-pick

Writes that the Rays missed out on a pick for Brian Shouse because he signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox so if that is accurate, we have the answer to that question.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 02:54 PM EST (#211119) #

1) On BA's Blue Jays Prospects coverage - I've been a subscriber with BA since 1984. I've NEVER seen then ignore and or diss us like this EVER. I think the fact that there are SEVEN guys (Drabek, Wallace, Stewart, D'Arnaud, Jenkins, Roenicke and Marisnick) in the top NINE - who weren't with the Jays at the start of the previous season has them flummoxed - I think it's unprecedented that seven ninths of a teams top players have such a tiny track record in that organization from the year before. I really think they don't know what to think.

2) Three of these NEW guys - Drabek, Stewart and Jenkins are odd on bets to be our starting pitchers from mid-2011 going forward and Alvarez is likely to join the rotation as a top five guy by mid-2012. It's not very often that FOUR of a teams starters of the future are on one years Top 10 Prospect list. AND - all FOUR of these guys are projected to be "mid-rotation" guys AT WORSE.

3) In Wallace, Arencibia and D'Arnaud we've three very solid full time position players - guys that could play their position for a competitive quality team.

4) Marisnick - has the tools to be a quality starting outfielder, Roenicke - has the tools to be a quality relief guy and Cooper - has the tools to work in McDonalds or Tim Hortons. OH well, nine out of ten ain't bad.

5) Be interesting to see how BA ranks this set of guys next year.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:03 PM EST (#211120) #

I myself like the chances of Zep and Cecil better than any of the newbies except for Drabek. It is of course much better to have 10 pitchers with a decent chance of having a starting role in two years rather than 5 pitchers, because of the drop-out rate.

John Northey - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:10 PM EST (#211121) #

The most interesting thing will be how the Jays handle it this year. With so many potential young arms you have to put them in the right environment and get them all enough innings to judge who will be here for 2011 and beyond. Who do you trade, who do you keep, who do you demote (so they get their innings)?

Mix in a stack of draft picks and things get very messy - but in a good way. I suspect by mid-season we'll see a few young pitchers either fall off pace and move to the pen or be traded for some hitting talent. I'd expect the Jays to try to get Marcum and McGowan (if healthy of course) as many innings as possible early on with plans to trade either or both should offers come in by mid-season as they are both into arbitration years. Romero, Cecil, Rzep, Drabek, Stewart, Jenkins and various others will be given full shots at slots with various older guys eating innings when needed.

2010 will be interesting.

#2JBrumfield - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:17 PM EST (#211122) #

Cooper - has the tools to work in McDonalds or Tim Hortons.

A funny line but that's pretty harsh. I salute anyone who can work at Mickey D's and Timmy Ho's! Anyways, let's not pull the plug on Cooper. He had a good first year and a poor second year. Be patient! :D

Jdog - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:31 PM EST (#211123) #

Kevin Goldstein over at BP did his Bluejays prospect list today. Of note he has Stewart ranked 6th which is the lowest ranking we have seen for him, however if he is seen as a reliever rather than a starter that ranking would be about right. Im not an insider so i didn't get to read the whole article but it appears Goldstein ranked the young pitchers and was much higher on Rzep than Romero or Cecil. I tend to agree with him here. Im hoping to be proven wrong but it seems like now would be a perfect time to sell on Romero.

Jim - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:36 PM EST (#211124) #

He does have Zep ahead of Romero and Cecil, but he has Morrow well ahead of all three.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:38 PM EST (#211125) #

Cooper has AT BEST - Overbay's bat - only without even Lyle's moderate home run power and his defense at first is much like mine - in other words he's a DH without power. IM(H)O.

Having said that - and I stand by that - I remember reading just after we drafted him that some pundit thought his MAXIMUM UPSIDE was that he could have a bat like Molitar - but no defensive, or on-base skills once he got on-base. Man, it would be cool IF I was really wrong about the guy - BUT - Idon'tthinkso!

Jim - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 03:44 PM EST (#211126) #

The comments on Cooper around here amaze me. This is a website where people once believed in Joey Metropolis and Chip Cannon but Cooper gets beat up like crazy. I guess it's the difference between having a first round pedigree and being a late rounder and the expectations. The Box in general doesn't give up on guys who are long past the point of non-prospectdom, but Cooper gets drilled constantly.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's a great prospect or anything but I just am a bit confused why he's treated differently then everyone else.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 04:30 PM EST (#211127) #

All the talk of young pitching reminds me ... don't forget to ask the folks in Oakland about Todd Van Poppel, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer ... four young "aces" can quickly become two jokers and couple of sixes ...

Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 04:36 PM EST (#211128) #

Hmm. I went back and checked. The highest we ever ranked Cannon as far as I can tell was #13. This was after he absolutely destroyed A ball at age 23. Joey Metropoulos did not make it out of the 20s, as far as I can recall.

I haven't given up on Cooper, but being drafted in the first round only carries you so far. Like Cannon, he's at best a marginal fielding first baseman and he's very slow, so he's going to have really mash to have any kind of major league career. He might do it, but his chances as of age 22 aren't really significantly better than Cannon's were at age 23. Cooper needs to add power; Cannon needed to develop better strike zone control.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 04:38 PM EST (#211129) #

don't forget to ask the folks in Oakland about Todd Van Poppel, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer ... four young "aces" can quickly become two jokers and couple of sixes ...

if you ask nicely, they will probably say: "yeah, but...Hudson, Mulder and Zito"

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 05:05 PM EST (#211130) #

Mike - on Zep and Cecil.

What has me so optimistic about our starting pitching going forward is that besides the VERY SOLID - YOUNG - five of: Morrow, Drabek, Jenkins, Stewart and Alvarez - we also have Romero, Zep, Cecil and I'd add Mills to that list as well. In the BA 2009 Prospect book they rated Mills (7) just ahead of Romero (8) and Zep (9). (Not to mention some other guys that might blossom this year).

The reason - IM(H)O - the first five are superior to the the last four is that ALL of the first five bring more smoke. All four of Romero, Zep, Cecil and Mills throw in the very low 90's - except for their four seam fastballs which can reach 94ish. However, four seamers - not having the movement of two seamers aren't as important - if you throw them much you'll get lit up. Having said that - no question any - or all - of these four could turn into VERY USEFUL mid-rotation pitchers. We're in a VERY fortunate spot. We've a wonderful set of young talented pitchers - Mike, as you said earlier in this thread - 2010 is going to be a very interesting year - to which I say - RIGHT ON!

Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 05:19 PM EST (#211131) #

My understanding was that Jenkins did not bring serious heat. Morrow has major control issues. Alvarez is just a kid with great stuff; if he stays healthy and performs in high A and double A this year, he'll move to the top of the class. For now, though, I'd prefer the pitchers who have actually succeeded in the high minors (and have pretty impressive stuff themselves).

Jim - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 07:34 PM EST (#211132) #

I'm not talking about their rankings, I'm just talking about the tone of the commentators.

Jim - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 07:39 PM EST (#211133) #

According to fangraphs Mills averaged 87.4 on his FB and Zep was at 88.0. Cecil was 90.7. Romero was 91.7.

brent - Thursday, January 14 2010 @ 11:06 PM EST (#211135) #

Don't forger Ariel Prieto with those other busts.

mathesond - Friday, January 15 2010 @ 07:43 AM EST (#211140) #

I'm not talking about their rankings, I'm just talking about the tone of the commentators.

As I recall, one of Chip Cannon's most popular attributes was his name, which sounds perfect for a ballplayer.

Matthew E - Friday, January 15 2010 @ 09:33 AM EST (#211143) #

I think "Chip Cannon" sounds like something the chip vendor might break out between the fifth and sixth innings.

Baseball America's Top 10 Jays Prospects Redux | 39 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.