Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - You Better You Better You Brett!

Who comes up with these titles!?! A belated Happy New Year, Bauxites! The first Batter's Box POTD of 2010 features a pitcher who showed promise at times in 2009.

Brett Cecil pitches against the Minnesota Twins at the Rogers Centre September 10th.

In his final start of the season, Cecil gave up two runs on seven hits and a walk over six innings to earn the victory as the Jays shelved the Twinkies 3-2.

The 23 year-old lefty from Dunkirk, Maryland didn't waste time getting to the big league stage. The 38th overall pick of the 2007 amateur draft from Maryland started his pro career in Auburn and helped the Doubledays capture the New York-Penn League title by winning the clinching game against Brooklyn with a solid seven inning performance. Cecil continued to climb the minor league ladder in 2008 by making stops in Dunedin, New Hampshire and Syracuse. He began 2009 in Las Vegas but was called up to make his major league debut against Cleveland at the Rogers Centre May 5th. Despite plunking three batters, Cecil struck out six over six innings and walked nobody as he allowed just two runs. He was in a position to get his first major league "W" but the bullpen couldn't hold the lead for him. However, the Jays did prevail with a 10-6 victory.

The 6-foot-2, 225 pound Cecil would earn victories in his next two starts by pitching eight shutout frames in Oakland and he picked up his first home win with a three-run, six inning effort against the White Sox. However, he would get rocked by the Red Sox at Fenway Park as he was torched for eight runs in 4 2/3 innings for his first career loss. The season went to hell in a handbasket for both Cecil and the Jays as Cecil was sent down to Las Vegas while the Jays went 0-9 on their road trip through Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore.

Cecil came back up on June 20th and did his best to help the club win on my birthday but his three-run, seven inning effort was not enough as the Jays lost in Washington 5-3 in 12 innings. He endured a pair of rough starts by giving up five runs to Cincinnati and seven runs against New York while failing to reach the fourth inning. Cecil would avoid getting charged with the loss in both instances but the team wasn't as lucky. Cecil did get back on the beam by supplying six shutout frames against his hometown Orioles in a 2-0 Jays victory at Camden Yards July 5th. He won his fifth game of the season in his next start in Oakland in a four-run, seven inning effort but Cecil suffered a knee injury while fielding a Robert Andino bunt against the Orioles at Rogers Centre August 8th. He didn't start again until August 20th and was raked for 22 runs over his next four starts that included losses to Boston, Tampa and the Yankees and a win during an 18-10 slugfest against the Rangers in Arlington. His knee injury may have played a role during his rought patch but Cecil finished 2009 on an high note with his quality start against the Twins September 10th. For the season, Cecil was 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA and pitched 93 1/3 innings. His K-BB total was 69-38 and his WHIP was 1.65 thanks to 116 hits given up. Along with 49 innings pitched in Las Vegas, Cecil was shut down for the remainder of the season.

Cecil featured a fastball that ranged from 90-92 MPH along with a slider in the mid-80's as well as a changeup and a curve. Two things Cecil will have to work on at the big league level are keeping the ball down and keeping it in the park. With ground ball rates in the 50-70 percent range in the minors, it was only 44 percent in the major leagues as he did give up 17 home runs. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .340 but conventional wisdom suggests that will drop for Cecil in 2010 as the typical BABIP for most pitchers checks in around .300.

Where Cecil pitches in 2010 appears to be up in the air. In a recent article, Jordan Bastian of bluejays.com pegs Cecil to be the number five man in the Jays starting rotation with the recent acquisition of Brandon Morrow and the expected return of Shaun Marcum from Tommy John surgery. However, Cecil will have lots of competition to hold down his starting role as there's speculation Dustin McGowan may finally return in 2010 after missing part of 2008 and all of 2009 with a shoulder injury. It'll be interesting to see how Cecil fares in 2010.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 07:02 AM EST.

You Better You Better You Brett! | 25 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 08:58 AM EST (#210855) #

Brett Cecil will have to compete for a position on this team, whether as a starter or as a reliever. Through New Hampshire (AA), Brett Cecil was a Star. 2008 in Las Vegas (AAA), followed by 2009 Spring Training was an eye-opener for him. 2009 in Las Vegas was a disaster. With the Jays in 2009, he had 5 great starts, 3 decent starts, 3 bad starts (Bos, NYY, Cin) and ran out of gas after July. Brett will have to work very hard and be very very good to make this team. Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero are locks to make this team (only a disaster prevents this). Marc Rzepczynski is the favorite for another position. Who wins the remaining position is open.

Denoit - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 09:12 AM EST (#210856) #

I feel Scott Richmond is a good guy to hold down the 5th spot, unless Cecil or someone else comes to camp and really shows something. I like players to be pushed, but only if they show they are ready. I think Cecil was rushed a bit last year and it wouldn't hurt my feelings if he started the year in AAA.

perlhack - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 10:56 AM EST (#210863) #

Dusting McGowan says he's aiming to return to the lineup for the beginning of the season.

�I'm shooting for the first of the year," McGowan stated. "I plan on (doing so well at spring training), making it hard for them not to put me on the mound."

He states that he has recovered from both the knee surgery in July and the shoulder surgery in 2008, and feels that his fitness level is at "somewhere around 85 percent".

Note: apparently, I accidentally submitted an earlier draft of this comment in text mode...sorry about that.

christaylor - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 12:45 PM EST (#210868) #

My brain just penciled him in for 32 starts like this one:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200706240.shtml

Ah... endorphins.

Now comes the reality crash that I realize I read similar stories to this at around this time last year.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 02:24 PM EST (#210874) #

Who comes up with these titles!?!

ANY reference to Townshend and The Who is a good thing, sir. This is actually one of the Top 15 or so headlines in Box history. And that's agin' some derring-do competition we got going here!

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 02:34 PM EST (#210876) #

Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, David Purcey and just possibly Dustin McGowan will complete for probably just 1 starting position. Someone might make the Bullpen. Of course, barring any future A.A. moves, including a Chapman acquisition, we have too many pitchers. So changes to all this might be made, yet.

dan gordon - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 02:55 PM EST (#210879) #

Just saw on Rotoworld that the Blue Jays have signed another SS who can't hit. Brian Bocock, former Giant, is now a Jay. AA certainly seems to like good gloves at SS, no matter how weak their bat. Bocock is fountain of futility with the wood in his hands. At 24 years of age in A+ ball last year he hit .241 with an OPS of .642. At AA he hit .171 with an OPS of .483. In 2008 he managed to hit .143 with the Giants and .163 in AAA, in the Pacific Coast League. Using the term "hit" loosely.

TheBunk - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 04:16 PM EST (#210889) #

I don't think a Chapman signing would really complicate anything, I seriously doubt he sees time in the majors in his first year minus a september call up.

Jim - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 09:27 PM EST (#210899) #

we have too many pitchers.

A team that had a 97 ERA+ last year which included 239 innings of a 155 ERA+ from a pitcher who is no longer with the organization has 'too many pitchers'? I know I've read that sentiment here many times, but it's could not be further from the truth.

Scott Richmond is 30 and his ERA last year was 5.52. Brian Tallet is 32 and his ERA last year was 5.32. David Purcey is 28 and has a career ERA of 5.81. McGowan, Marcum and Litsch are all coming back from injury. Even in his great rookie season Romero's ERA+ was 101. The Blue Jays used 12 starters and that was WITH Halladay.

This team might have 'too many pitchers' but it doesn't have too many pitchers.

92-93 - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 09:52 PM EST (#210902) #

What Jim said. None of these guys have ever even thrown 200 innings in a professional season.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 10:21 PM EST (#210904) #

What the Jays need are more front-of-the-rotation-calibre pitchers (and young, controllable, above-average players generally). Stewart, Drabek, Morrow, Marcum, McGowan, Jenkins, Romero, Cecil...all have that potential, but each player has a lot to prove before he acquires (or reacquires) that status going forward. I think the Jays will be fortunate if two of those players become true #1-3 AL East pitchers for the long haul. In the meantime, the organization should continue to build a stable of high-upside pitchers--which is pretty much what AA has been doing so far.

christaylor - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 10:34 PM EST (#210907) #

I agree with Jim and 92-93 but here's a thought... this organization has a unique opportunity with a glut of starters that have low perceived ceilings, injury histories or are generally unproven. Throw out the Veducci 30 IP rule. War of attrition. Acid test. Have all the potential ML starters aim for 200 IP. If they break down, so what. Aside from Drabek and Morrow (maybe Cecil) there's no compelling reason to protect these arms.

If followed, perhaps the Jays would be lauded as an organization that allow its pitchers to "learn how to pitch at less than 100%". I doubt this will happen, given that starters were shut down at the end of last year, but it seems to be just as like as another idea floated on da box (tandem starters).

There's value in allowing people/pitchers to fail. I hope the Jays exploit this opportunity...

Denoit - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 10:47 PM EST (#210908) #

If they break down, so what. Aside from Drabek and Morrow (maybe Cecil) there's no compelling reason to protect these arms.

That has to be one of the dumbest things I've heard in a long time. First lets start at the personal level, these are people not just pawns of the Blue Jays. They deserve every right to be taken care of so they can have the longest and most sucessful careers possible. Second....you know what im not even going to go through all the reasons this was a dumb comment because its going to take to long.

TamRa - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 10:50 PM EST (#210909) #

all true, but they still face the logistical challenge of all of them pitching in their proper role at a challenging level. Assuming health for all (Litsch in the second half) then you have

Potential major league rotation:

Marcum
Romero
McGowan
Rzep
Morrow

Potential Vegas rotation:

Cecil
Stewart
Mills
Purcey
Ray

Potential N.H. rotation:

Drabek (likely to move up before mid-season)
Perez
Gonzalez

Potential Dunedin rotation:

Jenkins (potential promotion candidate)
Alverez
Bell (potentially moveing up if he does well by mid season)
Chapman (if signed)

that leaves Richmond presumably in the major league pen (which is also crowded) and Litsch potentially displacing someone when he returns.

Yes, someone will almost certainly be hurt and yes someone will disappoint, possibly to the level of being ditched.

but on the other hand, what if the major league five is healthy and effective and Cecil has done all he can do at AAA? (for just one example)

i can see a scenario develop in which we have a troubled MLB rotation where Marcum is mid rotation and everyone else is worse - but I can also see a situation develop when you have 6-8 guys in hand that you'd really like to have in the major league rotation.

It's not a matter of having too much talent - just a matter of crowding and logistics.

sort of like how the Jays parse out LF/1B/DH

christaylor - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 12:04 AM EST (#210911) #

Thanks for calling me dumb. Real productive. I'm sure people who have trouble speaking really appreciate that comment.

I'm aware that they are people... but would you object so vociferously if I were talking about lawyers or day-traders?

I was intentionally being provocative, I'll admit that.... however, I do believe the Verducci rule is is obviously stupid, because it does not recognize individual differences.

92-93 - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 12:51 AM EST (#210912) #

There's a big difference between calling a person and his idea dumb.

Jim - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 08:02 AM EST (#210919) #

I don't think there is any doubt that teams have gotten overprotective. The Yankees are doing everything in their power to ruin Joba Chamberlain for example. I would toss out hard and fast rules like the 30 inning Verducci rule and have a plan for each individual pitcher. I wouldn't abuse anyone but the Jays have been pretty conservative with the youngsters and it's not like they don't have a raft of pitching injuries over the past half decade.

Jim - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 08:13 AM EST (#210920) #

but on the other hand, what if the major league five is healthy and effective and Cecil has done all he can do at AAA? (for just one example)

I really don't think there is anything to worry about. McGowan last threw a pitch in the major leagues on 7/8/07. Marcum's last inning was 9/18/07. The chance that they are both healthy, effective and able to take the ball every fifth day in April has got to be close to zero. Cecil was terrible in Vegas last year and is months away from doing all he could do at AAA.

The logistics look complicated right now, but I have little worry that these 'problems' will solve themselves.

ayjackson - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 10:36 AM EST (#210928) #

"There's a big difference between calling a person and his idea dumb" Not when it's your idea.

92-93 - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 11:57 AM EST (#210933) #

Intellectual people sometimes have stupid ideas.

TamRa - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 03:45 PM EST (#210942) #

I really don't think there is anything to worry about. McGowan last threw a pitch in the major leagues on 7/8/07. Marcum's last inning was 9/18/07. The chance that they are both healthy, effective and able to take the ball every fifth day in April has got to be close to zero.

I disagree (big surprise, eh?) somewhat.

Saying "Marcum last threw..." is a pretty meaningless thing. Coming back from TJ is very routine now and the guy who doesn't is the rare exception. thus, the odds of Marcum coming back and being effective every fifth day are probably more like 90%

Now, McGowan is most definately a wild card - there's no way to put a value on the likelyhood that he is an effective member of the April rotation, but you have to assume that the odds of that are essentially zero for your claim to be correct.

Still, the thing is that even if you dismiss McGowan, it is still possible you have five effective starters at a point when you have a guy knocking down the door.

To take 2009 for an example - there was a long early season stretch when you wouldn't have wanted to take Richmond out of the rotation. True he didn't finish well and I have pretty modest expectations for him but we can be pretty sure if a guy is on a hot stretch Cito won't replace him.

Hell, for a couple of months last year even Tallet was locked in.

It's far from impossible that Marcum/Morrow/romero/Zep and someone else (Richmond, McGowan, Purcey, whoever) could all be pitching well enough FOR A WHILE that you'd be blocking Cecil or whoever out of the rotation.

To be clear, I'm NOT predicting that - with the Jays history of injuries and bad luck I would sooner risk a bet that they will put three of those guys on the DL in April than that they will be blocking someone.

just saying it's possible.

Jim - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 05:43 PM EST (#210948) #

I have little doubt that Marcum is going to be a very good pitcher for them going forward. I just wouldn't count on him being ready to give you 6-7 innings every 5th day starting from opening day. As for McGowan I'll believe he's back when I see him on a major league mound.

Brett Cecil was a top-50 prospect last year in almost every publication last year... shouldn't he be able to go to Dunedin and show them enough to win a rotation spot over Tallet and Richmond in a season where they aren't even trying to create the illusion that they are trying to compete?

If there is one thing this team isn't going to lack it's available innings at the major league level. Even if all 5 of those projected starters were able to go come April, it would be a second miracle if they averaged more then say 5+ innings a start across the board. You have to go into the season thinking at least 10 pitchers will get multiple starts, if the over/unders on RIchmond and Tallet were set at 5 starts I'd bet the over on both of them.

Mike Green - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 10:41 PM EST (#210952) #

CHONE projects the Jays to have seven starting pitchers with 19-28 starts (Purcey, Romero, Zep, Marcum, Litsch, Richmond and Cecil) and ERAs between 4.58 (Marcum) and 5.27 (Richmond). If the usage matches the projections, these seven would make 157 starts, but none would throw more than 154 innings. It's a reasonable plan.

Magpie - Saturday, January 09 2010 @ 12:04 AM EST (#210953) #

would you object so vociferously if I were talking about lawyers

I suppose the equivalent would be forcing a young lawyer to do something that could quite possibly get him disbarred. So that he could never practise law again.

It's not that it's a dumb idea, but that it would be a really dumb thing for a young lawyer to do.

christaylor - Sunday, January 10 2010 @ 03:12 PM EST (#210991) #

"I suppose the equivalent would be forcing a young lawyer..."

I think it comes down to how much one believes that young pitchers can be or are coerced to pitch. My default opinion is that they want to pitch as much as possible and that the fashionable thing to do is to for teams say "no." Their desire to pitch has been stymied (as Jim mentioned see Joba for an prototypical example) and that's probably not good thing... My hope, which tends to be echoed by retired pitchers is that taking the ball as much as possible has value, even when there is pain in the elbow. In short: I object to the word "forcing", I don't think teams would generally need to do any coercion to get young pitchers to pitch. Pushing/encouraging people to succeed has value.The Japanese system of "throw as much as possible" is probably too extreme, but I think it would be good for teams to learn from Dice-K who was extremely durable, until he was under the care of MLB and has said many times he wants/needs to throw more.

Thanks for the comment though, I hadn't considered that angle w/lawyers and being disbarred. I picked the two professions I did, because both, like pitchers, have clear measures of wins/losses. Also thanks for people who raised the level of discussion about when to take duafter the loaded words dumb/stupid came into the discussion which, I am embarrassed to say was a level below what I expect and appreciate from the discussion of da box, so I am sorry I touched it off.

You Better You Better You Brett! | 25 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.