Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Jays Hire Ed Lynch ex-GM of Cubs

Yup, a former Cubs GM is now in the fold.

OK, so things aren't too exciting at this time of year in MLB. But what this indicates is the Jays are still chasing down top scouting talent. It sounds more and more like they are trying to do a 'Detroit Red Wings' method where you have guys who have tons of experience on hand as talent evaluators and assistants to make sure good choices are made. Lynch was the GM of the Cubs from late 1994 to mid-2000. His top draft picks in 1995-2000 were not the best - flops in 2000/1999/1996, Corey Patterson in 1998 (3rd overall), Jon Garland in 1997, Kerry Wood in 1995. He was the one in charge when Sammy Sosa jumped to 60+ HR a year, Kerry Wood coming up too soon and pushed too hard (Prior drafted the year after he left), Todd VanPoppel put into the pen and becoming effective, the Cubs making the playoffs once and flopping the rest of the time. Hired Jim Riggleman then Don Baylor to run the team.

For a list of his transactions go to...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1995-transactions.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1996-transactions.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1997-transactions.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1998-transactions.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1999-transactions.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2000-transactions.shtml

Not too popular with Cub fans at the end (2 last place finishes in a row after a playoff appearance will do that) he has been with the Cubs for a long time. Probably a case of the Jays opening up the chequebook to get a quality scout, although I don't think I'd trust him on the first pick given the above history. Any opinions or is this just reaching like mad for baseball content?

Posted by John Northey on Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 09:33 AM EST.

Jays Hire Ed Lynch ex-GM of Cubs | 57 comments | Create New Account

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lexomatic - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 10:13 AM EST (#210565) #

i'm not overly concerned with his draft picks, without knowing how the org worked at the time, how much input other people had etc. etc. if he has a prior history as a scout i'd be more concerned with knowing that.. who he signed, or hwo he wanted his org to sign but they didn't (ok that's a tough one, but would be great to know.) didn't BA publish the name of the scout who signed prospects in their prospect lists... you'd think they'd have an available database of who signed who.

i'm ok with just having lots of different pairs of eyes, with different strengths and specialties. someone will see something that someone else doesn't.. as long as you have that information you can weigh it.

christaylor - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 10:26 AM EST (#210567) #

"'m ok with just having lots of different pairs of eyes, with different strengths and specialties. someone will see something that someone else doesn't.. as long as you have that information you can weigh it."

On the surface it is hard to agree but there've got to be diminishing returns somewhere -- to use the old truism "of too many cooks in the kitchen". More pairs of eyes are better in that more and different ground gets covered but an orgy of information leads to an expanding problem of correctly weighting and synthesizing the information.

It concerns me a little that while we've heard of hire after hire on the scouting side, there's been comparatively little news on the analysis side of the coin (the same coin of course). Developing good metrics that can combine structured scouting reports ought to be a primary focus of the Jays especially if they bring a ton of information in -- there's leeway to be had in the first few years, but using historical studies (good point lexomatic on past aigning history data) and using a fine statistical comb to find the best combination of structured scouting reports (methods like PCA/ICA could be helpful) seems like it ought to be a priority.

More scouts are always nice but better whose data (scouting reports) are used more effectively is even better. I have faith in what the AA regime is doing so far, but I hope there's more to this than throwing scouts in a room and seeing a) how many agree b) who has the most seniority and c) what sticks.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 10:31 AM EST (#210568) #

In successive years from '98-'00, the Cubs traded Scott Downs away, then traded for him, then traded him away again. He was last sent packing by the Cubbies on July 31, 2000. I imagine Lynch resigned before this date in July 2000, but maybe someone should ask him what he thought of Downs.

lexomatic - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 10:36 AM EST (#210569) #

chris.. are you forgetting the consultancy with tango?
unless you find someoen you really like to do all the in0house why not consult on specifics.

also i found this which refers to the pretty amazing run of draft picks during the early 90s with the padres. how involved lynch was.. i dunno, as farm director probably not as much as scouting director reggie waller.
http://www.nctimes.com/sports/baseball/professional/mlb/padres/article_75a86255-a09e-5873-962f-17b5a4e3b761.html

i cant imagine what would've happened with the padres if they'd signed glaus, and helton also way back when

Forkball - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 10:52 AM EST (#210570) #

I'm not sure there's a whole lot to look at here, especially if we don't know what Lynch's role will be. But unless it's coming in to be AA's right hand man (which I can only assume it isn't with Lacava and Brown around) it's hard to knock; it just looks like AA continuing the plan to continue building the scouting base.

And just because he wasn't a stellar GM doesn't mean that he can't be a great asset for the Jays. He was obviously good at something to get to that position so if you get him to focus on his strengths and leave his weaknesses to others you could be a lot better off.

ayjackson - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 12:34 PM EST (#210571) #

Here's a roster exercise for the new staffer - find a rotation home in Toronto or Vegas for the following 14 near-ML ready pitchers:

Marcum, Romero, Richmond, Morrow, Cecil, Rzepczynski, Purcey Ray, Mills, Gonzalez, Perez, Stewart, McGowan, Drabek

My attempt:

Toronto:

Shaun Marcum
Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
Mark Rzepczynski
Scott Richmond

Toronto bullpen:

Dustin McGowan

Vegas rotation:

Brett Cecil
Zach Stewart
Brad Mills
Rei Gonzalez
David Purcey

Dunedin

Jesse Litsch

New Hampshire???

Bobby Ray
Luis Perez
Kyle Drabek

John Northey - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 12:36 PM EST (#210572) #

Yeah, pretty much a non-story but that's what you get at this time of year.

Still, he did seem to figure out that some guys should be shifted to the pen (Van Poppel) and might have a strength or two in that area. I think finding someone who is known to be good at figuring out which pitchers are best in what role would be a very valuable asset to have. That is what I think AA is trying to do, find people who are great at judging not just talent but also where to put that talent.

For example, one scout could be great at judging if a pitchers arm will fall off if he does 100+ pitches, another great at judging if he can handle the pressure of being a closer, another if a guy has the skill to learn new pitches. For hitting you would want someone who can tell if a guy can adjust from a pure pull hitter to a 'use all fields' or vice-versa rather than doing the Cito/Olerud approach (push the kid to switch when he really can't do that). Someone who can tell if an infielder has the eyes/hands/arm to shift from one slot to another smoothly (just because a guy has a great arm doesn't mean he would be great in RF - he might not have the attention span to stand out there for the 3 plays a game that might come to him). You need other scouts to tell if someone can handle being a catcher and if so where they'll need help with others doing that help.

Lots of scouts, lots of coaches. Very cheap to hire, with amazing ROI potential (remember the legendary Halladay retooling).

As to raw analysis - I think the idea of hiring guys on a consultant basis does make a lot of sense. There are many, many, many of us out here with statistical skills who do this stuff for free for fun. There are many inexpensive web sites that provide a ton of data as well. Thus I'd probably go out and hire some minimum wage junkies to do stuff like track raw data throughout the system (from rookie ball to the majors) then bring in top talent to analyze it a few times a year - say, $10k per report on the system and its strengths and weaknesses plus another $10k to figure out some methods for ongoing tracking - minimal dollars and overhead but lots of results. Have some minimum wage baseball junkie in the office doing research online about other teams and your own as well so you know what rumours exist and any potential issues with guys in other teams systems when you negotiate - mix it into a big searchable database by player and by team mixed with scouting reports (something that I'd be able to put together in a couple hours since I'd be having fun with it, have a kid do the data entry after). In truth, it would be a mix of Rotoworld/Baseball-Reference added to scouting reports.

Eh, just my two cents of advise to a GM who probably will never read it. Such is the life of a baseball fan who blogs.

Chuck - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:17 PM EST (#210573) #

Vegas rotation:

Brett Cecil
Zach Stewart
Brad Mills
Rei Gonzalez
David Purcey

I thought I read somewhere that Purcey is out of options. I could be mistaken.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:20 PM EST (#210574) #

It would be a lot easier to find a home for all those pitchers who you need to develop, but not overwork, with a tandem starter regime, AYJ. :) In the meantime, you can watch their workload by starting a couple out in the pen and switching them with a couple in the rotation in June.

I would definitely have Morrow working at Las Vegas until he got his walk rate under 4/9IP. That would probably mean all of 2010.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:28 PM EST (#210575) #

Chuck, you're not mistaken. Purcey is out of options.

ayjackson - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:30 PM EST (#210576) #

The thin air in Vegas seems to affect our pitchers' ability to throw strikes, especially with offspead stuff, so I'm not sure that's the place I'd send Morrow. It doesn't seem as though the Jays are looking to work Morrow in the Minors and I'm not sure I disagree, he'd demolish double-A.

As for stashing a few in the bullpen, there are 13 already vying for seven spots there (Downs, Frasor, Accardo, Carlson, Tallet, Camp, Janssen, McGowan, Roenicke, Zinicola, Henn, Hayhurst and Broadway).

Regarding Purcey's options, I was under the impression that he was out, but read somewhere recently that he had one left.

ayjackson - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:38 PM EST (#210577) #

Purcey was added to the 40-man roster on November 20, 2007. He spent part of 2008 and 2009 in the minors, using two options. The Jays should have one left.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:50 PM EST (#210578) #

He was the one in charge when Sammy Sosa jumped to 60+ HR a year

Actually I believe it was Victor Conte who was in charge of that.

Forkball - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:52 PM EST (#210579) #

For example, one scout could be great at judging if a pitchers arm will fall off if he does 100+ pitches, another great at judging if he can handle the pressure of being a closer, another if a guy has the skill to learn new pitches. For hitting you would want someone who can tell if a guy can adjust from a pure pull hitter to a 'use all fields'

I've always been a little curious about that. Scouts have to look at everyone, but I can't imagine that scouts evaluate equally across the board among pitching, hitting, and defense. And that's probably magnified the further down the chain you get all the way to high schoolers.

just my two cents of advise to a GM who probably will never read it

I'm guessing AA is on top of that, and more, already.

Jevant - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 01:56 PM EST (#210580) #

"Actually I believe it was Victor Conte who was in charge of that."

Zing! Well put.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 02:28 PM EST (#210581) #

True enough Forkball - I'd hope a ML GM would be far ahead of a guy who just types this stuff out for fun :) Still, fun to do it anyways.

christaylor - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 03:50 PM EST (#210582) #

I don't think I expressed my point clearly enough. I forget where I read it, but the number of managers required for an effective workforce is not a constant. Specifically, in this case, the more scouts the more people in the front office will be needed per extra scout.

The extra scouts will generate a ton of data and it won't be nicely structured as statistics. Ideally, the Jays have (or will have) a system to codify and quantify scouting observations (beyond the 80 system).

To an extent this is AA and his assistants job - assimilating information and making decisions. Hiring consultants (Tango is tops in my books) and math wizzes who love baseball on the cheap is great, but scouting information is a much richer set of data than anything on baseball-reference.

This goes doubly for the development reports the scouts will be required to do... I suspect/hope the Jays know things about the prospect "busts" they had over 2009 (Jackson, Arencibia) that go beyond what we can see in the stats. The glaringly obvious is there (K rate, BB rates).

So in sum, I really hope (and have faith that he does) that increasing the scouting arm of the organization is a large enterprise, akin to developing a small business in to a much larger corporation.

Denoit - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 04:12 PM EST (#210584) #

I enjoy these updates, and the discussion that goes with them. Any news is better than no news

He may not have had the greatest track record as a GM, but he must have done something right to get into that position. The more eyes they can get on players the better judgement they can make come draft day, or guys they are looking at in trades.

Thomas - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 04:25 PM EST (#210585) #

I disagree with these thoughts on Morrow, quite strongly. The odds of Morrow achieving success with his walk rate are not high to put it charitably. If you're worried about him struggling with pitching in Vegas then how do you expect him to fare against the Yankees and Red Sox? Morrow needs a good half season, at least, in the minors, IMO. I'm not convinced he'd demolish Double-A, but there would be worse things for him than building up confidence with a couple of goods months in New Hampshire. That being said, I'd probably send him to Vegas.

ayjackson - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 05:11 PM EST (#210586) #

My point, Thomas, was that Vegas doesn't seem to be the right place to send a guy to work on his breaking pitches. Breaking pitches don't seem to do much in Vegas due to the thin air (less resistance between the laces and air).

You could send him to New Hampshire, but we'll agree to disagree on the usefulness of that. I don't see much problem with letting him throw more breaking balls at the ML level. We're not in it to win it, so to speak. I don't think he'll have to face New York and Boston more than 20-25% of his starts.

Regardless of what I think, when looking at the roster battles both in Vegas and Toronto, it's usefull to consider that the Jays seem inclined (from what I've read) to leave Morrow with the big club.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 05:23 PM EST (#210587) #

Keith Law wrote last week that he expects Morrow to see some action in Double-A, as mentioned last week, because Vegas is "a hitter's park in a division of hitter's parks."

My thought is that Morrow is a tough kid who can grind out a challenge and should face up to them because, well...the Jays play in the AL East. He shouldn't be shy and is too old to be sucking his thumb. On the other hand, he's a kid who needs to learn how to pitch. He ought to have the composure to know what he needs to do to be successful without worrying about the score or how close the fences are, but maybe that is expecting too much.

He should be a pretty good comp to Burnett in his future, I believe, for what he can do on the field. He could still learn to be a smarter pitcher, too. Those years in Seattle were pretty much a waste, development-wise.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 06:53 PM EST (#210589) #

I would like to see Morrow get used to dominating hitters, somewhere. I think it would be good for his walk rate. He hasn't really been allowed to do it in professional baseball at any level, ever, except maybe for the first half of 2008 as a reliever in Seattle. New Hampshire would be a sensible place to accomplish this.

PeterG - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 07:07 PM EST (#210591) #

I agree. NH is the right place for Morrow to start. Saving service time until he is really ready for the bigs is also wise. I think he only has one year of options remaining. If so, it would make sense to use it to imrove his secondary pitches.

Spifficus - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 08:02 PM EST (#210592) #

I'm of two minds when it comes to where to start Morrow. If service time is the motivator, he needs to stay down for at least 81 days if my calculations are correct (Cots had him at 1y, 139d service time going into the year, and he was down for around 58 days last summer). So, to make it worthwhile from a service time standpoint (in this case, delaying free agency a year), he needs to stay down for about half the year. If the plan isn't to leave him down and forget about him until July, he may as well open the year in Toronto.

Developmentally, the biggest issue is consistency with his secondary stuff, his slider especially. His walk rate is horrible, but that looks like unreliable secondary stuff more than horrific fastball command. Given that, I'd want to put him in the environment that most encourages secondary stuff usage. In the minors, that'd be Vegas. Well, it'll certainly encourage him to use something other than a high fastball, anyway.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 29 2009 @ 08:17 PM EST (#210593) #

I would like to see Morrow matched up with a good pitching coach, whether that means Bruce Walton or Mel Queen or someone else. I don't think pitching against the Red Sox and Yankees is going to help his game much in the short term (say, the first half of 2010). Both teams are OBP machines. He might walk six or seven batters a night against those clubs.

jvictor - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 12:12 AM EST (#210595) #

Been thinking about moneyball again; looking at market weaknesses this time with the NFL in mind. I wondered about the success of Bill B. in New England and thought to meself Billy B. likes smart players and maybe this was a weakness in the market. Yes we all like the stud/cut individual of unlimited potential. But the majority of any roster is filled with also rans. What if the also rans were on the higher end of the IQ scale be it football or baseball.

I remember Bill James had a metric but I don't have the time to rumage my library. I recall OBP being there as well as FP and stealing percentage. What think youse. Will this mean a whole nother study and what would a baseball IQ test look like?

jgadfly - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 01:16 AM EST (#210596) #

Vegas or NH ? ... I still have visions of McGowan standing on a mound in Erie Pa or some such place in the middle of a snowstorm for an 11AM Monday game on a travel day just before he blew his arm out ... my vote would be for Vegas or even Dunedin, at least until the warm weather arrives.

jmoney - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 09:52 AM EST (#210598) #

AA seems to be a workaholic so as long as he is directing all these scouts to gather intel for him so that he can make decisions it should work out fine.

As for Morrow. I think its a good idea to start in AA. No point getting taken deep throwing flat sliders in Vegas. The kid wants to get back to the bigs so he'd probably resort to trying to get his fastball by everybody in AAA.

Forkball - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 10:20 AM EST (#210599) #

For what it's worth, the Jays don't seem to think pitching in Vegas is that big of a deal (I seem to remember Lacava saying this). They didn't hold anyone back from Vegas this year who would have been in Syracuse if the affiliation didn't change.

Maybe AA changes the approach and puts more of the better prospects in the Eastern League but I'd be surprised. This is one of those things that I think gets over-thought when nothing is going on.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 10:23 AM EST (#210600) #

New Hampshire would be fine for Morrow.

Forkball - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 10:36 AM EST (#210601) #

The Las Vegas comment was in this interview around the 7 minute mark: http://www.fan590.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20091224_154809_7788

John Northey - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 10:56 AM EST (#210602) #

James' baseball IQ was a mixture of stolen base percentage, fielding percentage, and stuff like that. Basically, things that even a slow runner or poor fielder can control by understanding their own limits and finding the right times to do things. For example, Carlton Fisk (he who has caught more games than anyone else) stole 17 bases while getting caught 9 times at the age 37 (!). Lifetime he was 128 SB vs 58 CS (a perfect 3-0 at age 44). That is just amazing for a catcher.

The only problem was that some guys who are thought of as having a ton of baseball IQ didn't do so well - Alfredo Griffen being the prime example. 192 stolen bases vs 134 caught stealing (64 more stolen than Fisk but caught 76 more times). 340 errors over 1861 games or 30 per 162 games (a very poor number). Plus iirc he wasn't the best at knowing when to take the extra base. Rance Mulliniks also viewed as smart was just 15-12 for SB/CS (at least he knew not to try too often) while having just 57 errors in 730 games at 3B (13 per 162 which is a good number, 961 fielding percentage which also is good at 3B - Scott Rolen is at 967, Mike Schmidt 955 for example).

Yes, fielding percentage doesn't tell you tons about their fielding quality but it does say the guy knew when not to throw, knew how to hold onto the ball, etc. which are viewed as skills you can learn. Same with baserunning - learning pitchers moves to the plate, knowing which catchers have killer arms, getting a good lead. You can't be Rickey Henderson on the bases with just knowledge but you certainly could equal Carlton Fisk.

China fan - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 12:21 PM EST (#210603) #

Thank you, Forkball, for providing the documentary proof of a point that should make sense to us anyway: the Jays don't regard Las Vegas as some kind of massive challenge for a young pitcher. Morrow might need to do some minor-league work on his off-speed pitches, but the idea of sending him to New Hampshire is a little ridiculous. He's had a significant amount of experience (131 games) in the majors. He has flaws, but he has enjoyed some success at the major-league level. His 26th birthday is approaching, and he's not a young Doc Halladay who needs to be totally rebuilt after posting an ERA of 10. This guy can handle AAA without suffering a nervous breakdown.

ayjackson - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 01:45 PM EST (#210604) #

I agree we're over-thinking this whole Vegas-NH thing for Morrow. He's 26 and has 200 ML innings under his belt. He's had plenty of work in Venezuela and AAA to work on his offspeed pitches over the past two years.

He can handle Toronto in a rebuilding year. Unless they want to "Mel Queen" him, he'll be in the ML rotation.

Moe - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 02:07 PM EST (#210605) #

I'm not sure whether this has been mentioned somewhere else, but the Jays did not sign Ramon Castro.

http://bases.nbcsports.com/2009/12/remember-the-jays-signing-ramon-castro-well-they-kinda-didnt.html.php

John Northey - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 02:33 PM EST (#210606) #

Yeah, a few people noticed it awhile ago. I suspect AA figured out that Castro was a bit of a scum bag although in sports that really doesn't mean much sadly enough.

So, Buck and kids plus Chavez behind the plate. Not great, but given it is a rebuilding year at least we know Buck has lots of experience with it being an ex-Royal and all.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 03:42 PM EST (#210607) #

Sure, Morrow could handle Toronto in a rebuilding year, but at the current rate, he'll have figured out the strike zone just in time for free agency. He's got an option year left. Use it.

ayjackson - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 04:18 PM EST (#210608) #

I don't buy that he can learn something in NH he can't learn in Toronto. I don't argue that it's easier to throw strikes to 22 year old AA players, I'm just not sure that's beneficial.

christaylor - Wednesday, December 30 2009 @ 08:36 PM EST (#210609) #

I was going to bring up the Lacava quote - glad I read the thread before I did. LV ought not to be a factor, from interviews he seems to have his head on straight about his situation - enough to realize that some factors are/were out of his control, like his being jerked around in SEA.

Deciding where Morrow ought to go isn't something that ought to be decided until well into spring training. If he dominates during the spring, there is no sense in relegating him to AAA or AA. If in the more likely event he still struggles send him to LV and wait until he solves his development issues. If he doesn't do so in the first half of the season, bonus, FA is delayed a year.

Purcey concerns me more than Morrow. He's been a bust but lefties seem to develop late. I have a faint hope that he can crib from Cliff Lee's play book of 2008... a very faint hope.

Marcum back a full strength, Morrow finding command, Romero putting up a full season of his 1st half of 2009, one of Zep/Cecil establishing themselves and any of Litsch/McG/Purcey producing has the feel of a rotation that could take a big step forward. That's even leaving Drabek out of the discussion (he really ought not to be in it, but he could force it). Then again all these folks could break our hearts. It may be blasphemy but that might be more fun than watching another all but automatic gem from the dearly departed Doc.

Now if AA could get on fixing RF -- I'm hoping for another reliever for "failed" prospect deal. Wlad Balentien doesn't fit since he's been moved to CIN but someone like him would be great... or at least get the detestable thought of Jose Bautista playing out the year in RF.

TamRa - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 03:59 AM EST (#210616) #

my attempt:

My edit

TBJ:

Marcum
Romero
Morrow (see below)
Rzepczynski
Purcey (this is what I'd do - I'd give him EVERY chance to succeed in the majors and at least accumulate a bit of trade value before cutting the cord. I'd probably stick with him until someone in AAA forced me to promote them. But if I was predicting, I'd predict Richmond will be here and Purcey in AAA)

LV51:

Cecil
Stewart
Mills
Ray
McGowan trying to rebound if healthy*, or Purcey (see above)

NHFC:

Drabek
Perez
Liebel
Gonzalez
K. Rodriguez

*McGowan would push Richmond to the pen
*Litsch is a non-issue for now;
*I don't consider Gonzalez a SP prospect in an organization this deep;
*If Purcey is the #5 then Richmond would be in the pen and Gonzalez might fill out the AAA rotation unless they decided to let Boone hold that place (for Drabek of course);
*I wouldn't be REMOTELY shocked if Drabek were in Vegas to open the year (not the least of reasons is because of the cold in N.H.) and in any less deep a group I'd be predicting it;

As for the bullpen:

Frasor
Downs
Accardo
Carlson
Roenicke
Tallet
Richmond

If Richmond is pushed to the pen, and no one is hurt, he probably pushes Janssen or Roenicke to the minors (doesn't Janssen have options? if so it would be between him and Roenicke depending on who's pitching better)

LV51:
(in no particular order)

Janssen/Roenicke
Zincola (if he's not lost back to the Nats - I'm anticipating a potential minor deal here)
Hayhurst
Broadway
Boone (if he's not in the AA rotation)
Romero
Henn
Stidfole

NHFC:

Farquhar (in Vegas by mid-season)
Collins
Magnuson
Dials
Polanco

Regarding Morrow:

I would like to see Morrow get used to dominating hitters, somewhere. I think it would be good for his walk rate. He hasn't really been allowed to do it in professional baseball at any level, ever, except maybe for the first half of 2008 as a reliever in Seattle.

This is not correct.

In 2007and 2008, with the exception of one horrendous two week stretch in late August 2007 and early September, hitters couldn't touch Morrow when he pitched in relief.

for those two years minus two weeks, his stats were:

2.19 ERA
1.26 WHIP
10.5 K/9
and that with a 5.6 BB/9

I don't have the cumulitive slash lines against but here's how they went for most of 2007, then the end of 2007, then for all of 2008 in relief

.225 BAA / .644 OOPS
.200 / .530 << extreme small sample
.143 / .504

So yeah, Morrow has most definately dominated major league hitters for an extended period of time.

Yes, it was as a reliever but you didn't make that distinction.

In smaller samples, as a starter, Morrow made the following progression as a starter in 2009:

The first line is when he was yanked into the rotation from the major league pen
The second set is in AAA
and the third set is 4 September starts back in the majors.

4.55 ERA / 1.73 WHIP / 5.5 BB/9 / 9 K/9 / 6 starts
3.60 / 1.33 / 3.8 / 6.5 / 10
2.66 / 1.18 / 4.9 / 6.9 / 4

Now, sample size and September stat caveats apply, but those are otherwise good trend lines.

It's also true that Romero had similar concerns coming into ST 2009 and it only took that long to refine his approach.

I, for one, am going to trust the team to make the right choice and if they think he doesn't "get it" during ST i'm sure they will ship him out but I don't expect that and I SURE won't presume to know better than the team if it doesn't happen.

It's also worth noting that Gallaro had a noteably higher BB/9 last year than people are saying Morrow needs to find and Kershaw was in the same area.

If Morrow gets it under 5/9 then he's going to be pretty impressive.

Off the pitching topic - just because Castro wasn't signed doesn't mean the Jays are done signing catchers.

consider - the Rockies are closing in on Olivo and that would block out Torrealba whom the jays were once talking to...

It wouldn't be a stunner if they brough Barrett back on a minor league contract if nothing else. Fragility aside, they seemd to like him as a person and a teammate last year.

Now if AA could get on fixing RF -- I'm hoping for another reliever for "failed" prospect deal. Wlad Balentien doesn't fit since he's been moved to CIN but someone like him would be great... or at least get the detestable thought of Jose Bautista playing out the year in RF.

I have proposed some of our excess pitching - possibly Brian Tallet - to the Mets for Angel Pagan.

He compliments Bautista well and he's good lead-off speed.

Out of the free agents, Church or Winn could do it or take a flyer on Ankiel and concede you won't have a natural lead-off type.

Jim - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 10:38 AM EST (#210619) #

Losing Syracuse was a big blow. Look at the dance you have to do to avoid using pitchers in Las Vegas. Just one more self-inflicted headache for the organization.

Flex - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 10:56 AM EST (#210620) #

Yeah, there were a lot of self-inflicted headaches in the Ricciardi era. It may be time to look back and rethink the general hostility toward Griffin and Elliot for what we perceived as their knee-jerk hostility toward Ricciardi. It seemed unreasonable at the time. But maybe they were right all along.

John Northey - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 11:36 AM EST (#210622) #

Losing Syracuse was largely due to providing them a non-competitive team for years. How to fix that? Hrm. Either you stock up on AAAA guys in Vegas to make it so other teams think 'wow, they want to help us' or you dream up something else.

This is where stuff like covering 100% of the cost of food for players would help (improve profit margin for AAA team, improve nutrition for players via more team control over it). Also covering other costs that lead to better conditions could be a good investment. Of course, the best method would be if the Jays just bought a AAA team and stuck it wherever was best for them (I suspect a team could work in Montreal or Ottawa as both have had success in the past, just need to figure out how to deal with weather issues - wonder if a team could go into the Big Owe and use the lower bowl only for seating).

ramone - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 12:52 PM EST (#210624) #

There is a decent article over at Baseball America by J.J Cooper regarding the Jays 'returning to their roots" by focusing on scouting and player development, it's suscriber only so I won't post the link, but those with subscription access the article link is posted on BA"s main page. There is alot of quotes from the Jay's new scouting director Andrew Tinnish. The article contains several subtle jabs at JP, and relays excitement from Tinnish and a current Jay's scout regarding the new (or return to the old way) direction for the Jays.

Dewey - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 01:37 PM EST (#210627) #

Nah. Their hatred was personal, not professional at all. It was unreasonable; and they were not �right all along�. Not at all. Griffin, especially, just could not let it go, which made him look nasty and mean-spirited, (not unlike our glorious PM of the moment). In fact, much so-called journalism is like that now. Demons and angels. No room for a middle ground. Maybe the internet has polarized us all into electronic mobs?

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 03:13 PM EST (#210629) #

(1) I disagree with starting Morrow in any other place than New Hampshire. For 10 - 12 starts he will throw his #3 pitch - 50% of the time, his #4 pitch - 30% of the time and his #1 & #2 pitches the remaining 20% of the time. Until his secondary pitches are good quality or better, he stays in AA. Once his 'stuff' is ready, he goes to Las Vegas. Here he will be given a chance to dominate the opponents for at least 10 - 12 starts. If satisfied, call him up. (2) I totally agree that David Purcey must start as much as he can. You must find out 'what he is capable of' to be able to determine his value. (We have too many pitchers we're not sure about.) (3) I always thought Rule 5 picks, like Zechry Zinicola, must spend the whole year on the major league team, unless injured, or must be offered back to his previous team? (4) Dustin McGowan starts as soon as he is ready. Let's find out if he can start, be our closer, or a prime trade value. (5) Accardo - 1st, Frasor - 2nd and Downs - 3rd choice for Starting Closer.

Happy New Year everyone!

TamRa - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 04:01 PM EST (#210630) #

A Rule 5 pick must stay on the roster all year (unless injured) or be offered back to the former team BUT the drafting team CAN and sometimes does offer the former team some compensation in odred to keep the player and send him down. in essence, you send the guy back and then trade them something to get him back without the strings.

Losing Syracuse was a big blow. Look at the dance you have to do to avoid using pitchers in Las Vegas. Just one more self-inflicted headache for the organization.

Well, constant suckage in Syracuse was a self-inflicted wound (for decades) but the whole merry-go-round that left us holding the bag in Vegas when we thought we were getting Buffalo was largely a result of forces outside the teams control.

Making a play for Buffalo when you knew that the Syracuse relationship was ending was smart - Buffalo turning it's attention elsewhere wasn't something the Jays had a lot of ability to prevent.

Flex - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 04:30 PM EST (#210632) #

Richard, that sounds like a smart way to handle Morrow. When you say that 50% of his pitches will be his #3 pitch, etc, is that speaking from knowledge about the particular plan for Morrow, or is that generally what they do with developing starters?

92-93 - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 04:49 PM EST (#210633) #

"For 10 - 12 starts he will throw his #3 pitch - 50% of the time, his #4 pitch - 30% of the time and his #1 & #2 pitches the remaining 20% of the time."

It's beyond ridiculous to force a guy with Morrow's fastball/slider combination to throw changeups and curveballs 80% of the time...that will do absolutely nothing to further his development and will in fact hinder it.

Mylegacy - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 05:20 PM EST (#210634) #

Morrow is going to be a tough call. Clearly - he currently doesn't have AL East level control and command. He will have Spring Training to show how he uses his pitches and how he controls them. My gut feeling is we start him as the number 4 guy (regular every fifth day) and work with him between starts to ensure he uses his selection of pitches and gains control. IF - by the end of May he's just not improving - we put him at AA (preferably), or AAA, until he gets it together or September - which ever comes first.

I think the REAL PROBLEM with Morrow will be between his ears as he may not take well to being sent down - but seriously - a starter without control and command in the AL East is just gas to a fire. He either gets it or we put him down til he does.

Nolan - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 09:53 PM EST (#210637) #

Hmmm, think I may be going crazy. I thought I already made a post on this thread. The short version:

I will cheer for guys like Barry Bonds, Milton Bradley, and Dinosaur Carl, but not the like of Brett Myers and Ramon Castro. So hurray for the news that we didn't sign him.

In regards to the Conte/Sosa remark upthread, it's a bit of a cheap shot at Sosa as the only "proof" that hhe did steroids are the home runs and hacks like Murray Chass.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 11:31 PM EST (#210639) #

In regards to the Conte/Sosa remark upthread, it's a bit of a cheap shot at Sosa as the only "proof" that hhe did steroids are the home runs and hacks like Murray Chass.

1. i guess my 'cheap shot' is just "a bit" of a cheap shot rather than being a full-blown one, in that anyone with a whit of intelligence knows that all the players you list that you want to pay to see are (unlike Murray Chass) cheaters, chronic liars, and in some case perjurers. If they were any better than cheaters, habitual liars and perjurers, then it would be an all-out 'cheap shot'.

2. Murray Chass is a person not a "proof", your sentence makes no sense.

Richard S.S. - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 06:22 AM EST (#210641) #

In order to determine if Morrow will be your Ace, #2 or #3-5, you need to know just how good Morrow can be. Having great #1 & #2 pitches is a start, but without a great #3 pitch (or two good #3 & #4 pitches), he will never be an Ace. Using / developing these pitches works best in a pitchers' league (New Hampshire), where they are your primary pitches (80% usage) - develops muscle-memory. After 10 - 12 starts, you should know if he's got the third pitch(es) he needs. Move him to Las Vegas and tell him to have fun - let's see if he dominates. After 10 - 12 starts, bring him up. By the time the season ends / his inning limit is reached, you will know what you have. This is an easier way to let him be a Star than trying to repeat some of Seattle's mistakes (they traded him without knowing he could start). He can be a number 5 pick, a possible Roy Halladay heir, if you let him grow into it, this year. Kyle Drabeck is another pitcher you can treat this way - great #1 & #2 pitches needing a third. Is he your Ace, let's find out?

AA should see if Tallet and/ or Frasor are of interest to the Cubs, if we can add a top SS, a top 3B piece or maybe a top RF piece, this could be a deal worth exploring.

ayjackson - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 10:46 AM EST (#210646) #

The only thing throwing a breaking pitch 80% of the time is going to develop is chronic elbow problems.

Mike Green - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 05:47 PM EST (#210655) #

He either gets it or we put him down

Starting out 2010 with some really tough love, eh?

Nolan - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 05:59 PM EST (#210656) #

My two comments really had no connection with each other. My first comment was simply to say I can look past cheaters to cheer for them [not my first choice obviously...], but can't cheer for probable rapists or wife beaters.

I guess I really should have spelled it out a lot better: Neither the homeruns or Chass are proof that Sosa did steroids [rather they are "proof"]. There is no evidence he did steroids. Unless you take the word of writers like Murray Chass who accuse players of steroids on facts that the players have back acne.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 09:13 PM EST (#210751) #

Well, constant suckage in Syracuse was a self-inflicted wound (for decades) but the whole merry-go-round that left us holding the bag in Vegas when we thought we were getting Buffalo was largely a result of forces outside the teams control.

Making a play for Buffalo when you knew that the Syracuse relationship was ending was smart - Buffalo turning it's attention elsewhere wasn't something the Jays had a lot of ability to prevent.

Here's hoping the Bisons have another brutal season and maybe they'll want the Jays instead of the Mets in 2011! The Jays-Las Vegas affiliate agreement is up at the end of the 2010 season and it'll be interesting to see where the Jays wind up for 2011 and beyond. The Las Vegas 51's had announced they were changing their nickname for the 2009 season but they missed the MILB deadline to submit a name change so they stuck with the 51's moniker last season. As far as I know, there's been no announcement the team will change its nickname for 2010 either. I wonder if Las Vegas is holding off until they have a new afilliate in place before changing its name. I'm sure the Jays can't be thrilled to have their team at outdated Cashman Stadium and the 51's would probably prefer an American affiliate.

Anyways, here's a list of the Player Development Contracts that are up at the end of the season. I'm not sure if there will be a whole lot of movement in the International League but a lot can change between now and early September.

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