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For now is certainly the winter of my discontent.

Anyway - Roy Halladay finishes his Blue Jay career (not that I've actually reconciled myself to this!) a solid second (sometimes third) in pretty well every significant career pitching category. And that, assuming I eventually get over what's happened this month and am able to look at all of this with a clear eye and a cold heart, is probably just about right where he stands in the overall picture.


Dave Stieb's spot atop most of these leader boards survives for at least another generation, one would think.  Halladay's generally the second best starter in team history: wins, strikeouts, ERA (third actually), complete games (third again), shutouts, and so on. Sometimes he's very close to the leader (his 3.43 ERA is a Jay is 0.01 behind Stieb and Key), sometimes he's well back (shutouts, complete games, hitting guys with pitches. Stieb normally laps the field here.) If we set the bar at 1000 innings as a Blue Jay, Halladay leads in three career categories: ERA+, K/W ratio, and BB per 9 innings.

Anyway, you know you want it. Let's make a Data Table:

Category    1.             2.                 3.

ERA Stieb 3.42     Key 3.42    Halladay 3.43
Wins    Stieb 175    Halladay 148    Clancy 128
Games   Ward 452    Henke 446    Stieb 439
IP    Stieb 2873    Clancy 2204.2    Halladay 2046.2
Ks    Stieb 1658    Halladay 1495    Clancy 1237
Starts  Stieb 408    Clancy 345    Halladay 287
CGs    Stieb 103    Clancy 73    Halladay 49
SHO    Stieb 30    Halladay 15    Clancy 11
K/W    Halladay 3.29   Wells 2.667    Key 2.337
HR/9    Stieb 0.702    Halladay 0.756    Guzman 0.851
WHIP    Key 1.196    Halladay 1.198    Stieb 1.241
Hits/9  Stieb 7.97    Guzman 8.14    Key 8.62
BB/9    Halladay 2.001  Key 2.144    Wells 2.304
K/9    Guzman 7.625    Halladay 6.574    Wells 6.143
ERA+    Halladay 133    Stieb 123    Key 121

If the bar is lowered to 500 Toronto IP, those last seven categories all change dramatically, as you would expect, and some strange names show up:

K/W     Henke 3.880     Halladay 3.286    Towers 3.129
HR/9    Ward 0.415    Stieb 0.702    Halladay 0.756
WHIP    Henke 1.025    Key 1.196    Halladay 1.198
Hits/9  Henke 6.57    Ward 7.32    Stieb 7.97
BB/9    Towers 1.628    Halladay 2.001    Alexander 2.064
K/9    Henke 10.295    Ward 9.281    Burnett 9.040
ERA+    Henke 167    Halladay 133    Quantrill 131



I do think it's fun sometimes to limit these team leader boards to guys who never played anywhere else. No one will be too surprised to learn that Luke Appling has the most hits of anyone who only wore a White Sox uniform. Appling has the most hits of anyone who wore a White Sox uniform. But do you know who has the most home runs of anyone who only wore a White Sox uniform? After you eliminate, as you must, Thomas and Baines and Konerko and so on and so forth.

Of course you don't.

It was Ron Karkovice. Ron Karkovice himself probably doesn't know that.

Who has the most wins for a Toronto pitcher who never pitched anywhere else? For now, it's Halladay. But in a few months, it will be Luis Leal. Leal will hold the same distinction for pretty much every other pitching category as well, with the exceptions of things like Games and Saves, where Jason Frasor will stand atop the rubble of our history.

Dave Stieb and Roy Halladay each made their Blue Jays debut at age 21. Halladay was a September callup, who spent his first full season as a swing man, his second as a punching bag, and his third going back to A ball and reinventing himself. When he returned, in June 2001, he... arrived. More on that anon.

Stieb was added to the rotation in mid-season 1979 and hardly ever missed a turn for the next twelve years. His first career appearance on a disabled list came when he suffered the shoulder injury that destroyed his career in May 1991. It seems odd, but in retrospect one of the key distinctions between Stieb and Halladay is this: from the day he arrived, Stieb was far more durable. Stieb was even more of a workhorse. Hard as it is to imagine anyone being more of a workhorse than Doc, who led the league in IP three times (Stieb himself led the league twice.)

Halladay stayed here through his age 32 season, and Stieb's last full year as himself was likewise his age 32 season (1990). At that point in his career, Stieb was 166-123, 3.34 with an ERA+ of 126. He got in another 9 starts early in 1991 before the injury.

Roger Clemens, of course, owns the best single season by any Toronto starter. Halladay was having his best year in 2005, but Kevin Mench put an end to that before the All Star Break. As it stands, Doc's best single season is probably 2002, the year before his Cy Young. But you could make a case for 2008, or the Cy Young year itself. (2003).

Stieb should have won a Cy Young in a season (1982) that certainly wasn't his personal best. He had an excellent case for the award in 1983 and 1984 as well. But Stieb never actually pitched better than he did in 1985. He led the league in ERA (2.48) and ERA+ (172, second time he led the league) - but somehow managed to go just 14-13 for a team that won 99 games. (Well, I can tell you exactly how it happened - Stieb lost three games by a 2-1 score, another one by a 2-0 score. Plus his bullpen blew no less than seven leads he had entrusted to them.)

I was in the house for the Roberto Kelly game in 1989 (the best live baseball experience of my life - better than Mitch pitching to Joe in October 1993) and the Bobby Higginson game in 1998 (Stieb was there too, in the bullpen, expecting to make one last appearance in the season finale, but the kid on the mound had other ideas.) But the games I'm remembering most vividly right now... were very different.

One was that May 1991 game. Stieb was locked up in a pitcher's duel with Mike Moore of the A's. A night game in Oakland, the A's ahead 2-1 in the seventh, McGwire on first with one out. Walt Weiss hit a grounder to the hole on the right side, but Alomar got to it and threw to second for the force. Gonzales relayed it to Stieb covering first - he made the catch but stumbled over the base in the process and landed on his shoulder.

It seemed like nothing at the time, nothing at all...

But that was all she wrote. He faced two more batters, came out of the game, and didn't return until twelve months later. And he was just a faint shadow of what he had been...

Youneverknow.

On June 22, 2001, Roy Halladay completed his return from the land of the lost. He began the year in the Dunedin bullpen, moved up to make 5 starts in Knoxville and 2 in Syracuse before returning to Toronto. Lord Voldemort was the Blue Jay starter, and his evil was unspeakable. He faced seven batters and didn't retire any (the only out recorded was on a caught stealing.) Manny Ramirez hit a three-run homer, Brian Daubach a two-run double, and Halladay was summoned from the pen.

And it all began.

Two groundouts to end that first inning. Two more groundouts and a strikeout the next inning. It all fell apart on him in the third, when the Red Sox roughed him up for five runs on a couple of walks, a bunch of bloops, and more Manny. But it didn't matter. You could tell, you could absolutely tell, that it was a new guy out there. It wasn't the kid who had been so awful the year before, and so inconsistent the year before that. He was Doc, I tell ya. He was here, at last.

Good times we had.
Dave and Doc: Better Days | 24 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
actionjackson - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:34 AM EST (#210387) #
Thankyou Magpie. It's never complete until the Magpie missive, or in this case mini-missive. Now the healing can begin.  ;)
actionjackson - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:37 AM EST (#210388) #
dola,

Stieb has a case for four straight Cy Youngs from 1982 and 1985, as there was nobody better in the AL in any of those four years. The BBWAA's shameful worship at the altar of the win kept him from getting the recognition he deserved.  :(

Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:41 AM EST (#210389) #
Ya think? I'm not so sure....

It occurs to me now, that while Dave and Doc are both listed as arriving with the team for their age 21 seasons, and were in fact 21 years old when they made their debuts, this is one of those cases where the similar baseball age is slightly misleading. Halladay was born in May, Stieb in July. When they're the "same age," Stieb is ten months older.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:48 AM EST (#210390) #
That was the healing I'm not so sure about!

As for the Cy Youngs - I've got no real problems with Quis in 1983 or Saberhagen in 1985. I can even take Hernandez in 1984. (But Lamar Hoyt? And Pete Vuckovich? Begone!)

But Stieb's 1981 season, the strike year, was just amazing. He was 11-10 that year. The ball club was unbelievably awful. The leadoff hitter hit .209 with a .289 OBP. The third baseman hit .187 and slugged .228. The best bat in the old - the best bat - was a 21 year old kid named Moseby who hit .233 and slugged .357. A horrible, horrible team. Stieb started 25 games, and they scored 68 runs for him. 68!! They were shutout in 5 of his 25 starts.

But when they scored at least 2 runs for him - he went 11-3. It was an astonishing performance.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 06:10 AM EST (#210393) #
one must observe that Stieb has the equivilant of 4 seasons worth of starts as a Jay more than Doc.

If Doc was here four more years...

Still, few pitchers in the last 40 years are more under-appreciated throught baseball at large than Stieb.

It's a shame he was laid-low too soon like that.


AWeb - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 07:53 AM EST (#210395) #
I always find it remarkable how much worse Halladay's career numbers look because of that one terrible stretch of 67.2 IP. They raise his ERA almost 0.3 points, his ERA+ ten points. His Hits/9IP would be right alongside Key. I almost always mentally throw out that year when I look at his numbers - it's not his fault that the team wouldn't stop sending him out there deespite keeping his ERA remarkably consistent between 10 and 12 (not easy to do in a horrifying way).

So long to Halladay, who I would say goes down as the best pitcher in Jays history, although it is close. To get from Halladay's 133 ERA+ to Stieb's 123 ERA+, you need the 826 innings to be thrown at a 98 ERA+ level. That's pretty much generic average starter (Romero was at 101 last year) level.  Roughly, Stieb also had 53.5 WAR for his Jays career, Halladay managed 47.4 (with a stunning -3.2 during his lost year). It's too close to call? Either way, let's hope the next one comes along soon and beats them both out.
Chuck - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 09:11 AM EST (#210397) #

Either way, let's hope the next one comes along soon and beats them both out.

Ignoring Clemens, the team has had two such talents in thirty years. Maybe we shouldn't hold our breath.

Forkball - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 09:34 AM EST (#210399) #
one must observe that Stieb has the equivilant of 4 seasons worth of starts as a Jay more than Doc.

Well, part of that is Halladay's struggles and re-birth at the beginning of his career (while Steib was chugging along), and the other that Steib was just more durable (at least until the shoulder). 

If you take the 8 full years where Halladay was great (beginning 2005), you annual starts of:

36, 34, 33, 32, 32, 31, 21, 19 (average 29.8)

Where Steib from his first full year in 1980 until his age 32 season (1990) you have:

38, 36, 36, 35, 34, 33, 33, 32, 31, 31 (average 33.9)  He also had 25 in a the 81 strike year where they played 2/3rds of the year which would have likely been at least 35 starts)

Halladay had the fluke leg injury, but it was typical for him to miss a few starts each year with the forearm tightness.  Steib was able to average 4 more starts/year over a longer period.  Halladay could last longer now, but up until this point in their career Steib was a little better for a little longer, particularly in those first few years.

And when you think about that you have to think about how under appreciated Steib is.

---

Anyway, the best part of this site are the Magpie essays.  Nicely done.
jgadfly - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 11:28 AM EST (#210403) #

"Ignoring Clemens ... "  What a great idea ! ... Two years, two Cys and a whole lot of 'vitamins' vs Four years, four sighs a whole lot of nothin ... where's the justice in that. 

 How about ... Let's misremember !  Two Cys for Stieb, one each for Hentgen and Halladay !   ...  There , doesn't that sound better ?   I propose an amendment to the Blue Jay's official media guide, any seconders?

Chuck - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 11:38 AM EST (#210404) #

Ignoring Clemens ... "  What a great idea ! 

I'm not sure if you're fer me or agin' me, but I was suggesting we ignore Clemens in the Stieb/Halladay context since he was neither a Blue Jay product nor a pitcher who excelled longterm in a Blue Jay uniform.

Clemens' two seasons as a Blue Jay were certainly the best ever by a Blue Jay pitcher and his career accomplishments dwarf those of Stieb and Hallday (he currently ranks ahead of Stieb and Halladay's combined innings pitched). Yes, his record is tainted because of the drug use and yes, he's seemingly an ass of epic proportions.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 11:43 AM EST (#210405) #

Ah, another mag(pie)num opus ... well done, sir. Well done.

In allegorical terms, Mags is this site's Stieb or Halladay. Solid rotation horse, leading the entire World-Wide Webnet-thingy in WPA+ (Words per article above Web average) and you never, ever have to worry about tapping your arm (or mouse) to call in the relief-writer or pinch-editor.

MatO - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 12:46 PM EST (#210413) #
What's forgotten about Stieb is the heavy workload up to 1985 seems to have taken a heavy toll on him.  He was not the same power pitcher starting in 1986 and the numbers reflect that.  He was performing so poorly that he ended up in the bullpen for part of the year.  It took him a couple of seasons to figure it out and by 1988 he was his effective self again but as more of a junkballer.  It seemed to me that his fastball had lost some velocity and the slider did not have quite the same bite but he added a curveball to become more of a Marcum-like pitcher (without the changup).  I don't think he's ever gotten enough credit for that.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:14 PM EST (#210415) #
he was his effective self again but as more of a junkballer.

It was quite strange, when you think on it. In Act IV of Stieb's career (1988-90), he was nowhere near as impressive and while he was quite good he was truly not as effective as he was in Act II (1981-85), when he was simply the best pitcher in the league. But in Act IV, Stieb went 51-22, 3.11 - and gave us the no-hitter, the Roberto Kelly game, and 5 (five!) one-hitters. In just three seasons.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:21 PM EST (#210417) #

Gonzales relayed it to Stieb covering first - he made the catch but stumbled over the base in the process and landed on his shoulder.

That's Rene, not Alex for those of you who didn't know.  Not only was he a bad Eric Lindros impersonator (he wore #88) but he hit .195 in his lone season in '91.  I remember watching that game but I can't remember if it was Gonzo's fault with an errant throw or if Stieb was late covering the bag but #37 was never the same after that.

Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 01:37 PM EST (#210418) #
I can't remember if it was Gonzo's fault with an errant throw or if Stieb was late covering the bag

I think Stieb was just a touch late breaking for the bag. Unusual for him, but while it was his 399th game with the Blue Jays, it was just his 9th with Roberto Alomar playing second. I daresay he may not have expected it to stay in the infield.
TimberLee - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 02:54 PM EST (#210426) #
Neat, magpie.  Thanks.
brent - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 06:12 PM EST (#210435) #
Could we get a thread/post about Sickels list of Jays' prospects, please?
joeblow - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 06:13 PM EST (#210436) #
I watched and listened to alot of Stieb games and the career quest for a no-hitter was compelling, but Doc vs Stieb is no contest. If the numbers tell a different story, or make it close, then the numbers lie.

With Stieb pitching I thought we had a good chance to win, but there always seemed to be an easy excuse when he didn't (bad bounce, bad bullpen, bad wind, etc). With Doc, it was as close to money as you could get. (Except for Clemens, but that was artificially enhanced).

With a big game pitcher, you have the option to let him close the game out. Stieb always seemed to hit a wall.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 06:28 PM EST (#210438) #
brent, if you want to write up a Sickels story, I'll post it for comments (after review and edits, of course). Just send it to me at mickwrites@hotmail.com ... this "Pinch-HIt" offer is extended, as always, to any member Bauxite. Submit something for consideration, especially during the "down time" between Winter Meetings and Spring Training, and we'll certainly consider featuring it ...
brent - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 07:32 PM EST (#210446) #
I'll do it if no one else wants to, but usually the Box is quick at getting stuff up for the minor league stuff. Maybe everyone wants to take Christmas off ^.^ 
Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 10:17 PM EST (#210448) #
Stieb always seemed to hit a wall.

Well, that explains the 103 complete games.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 10:30 PM EST (#210449) #
Magpie, I suspect we're roughly of the same vintage. i loved watching Stieb throw, and was thrilled when the Jays were becoming a strong team in the early mid-80's while watching opposing hitters be beside themselves with Stieb's frisbee. We used to debate whether it was a curve or a slide.

But as much as I liked Stieb, and agreed with tossing Derek Bell after the locker incident, I would give the edge to Roy. And the reason for that is that Stieb didn't face the stacked 'superteams' of the AL East that have arisen since salary disparity has grown so large, magnified by the unbalanced schedule. The Yankees and Red Sox teams of this decade have resembled the types of superteams that arise in 5 team strato leagues. That wasn't the case during Stieb's tenure, as good as some of those teams were. The 1985 Royals, even with George Brett, come nowhere near the present day Yankees. To have played his career in this division with the unbalanced schedule, and accomplished what he has, for what would otherwise be a second-division team, has been remarkable.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 23 2009 @ 11:15 PM EST (#210450) #
The two pitchers careers have quite different shapes, which doesn't help if you want to compare them. Halladay struck out lots more batters but Stieb was much harder to hit. Halladay didn't walk nearly as many hitters as Stieb did (this was actually a byproduct of Stieb being so hard to hit, but its a big edge for Halladay) - Stieb did a much better job at holding baserunners and fielding his position.

I dunno. Stieb accomplished more in his time here mainly because he was more durable than Halladay and he hit the ground running. Halladay needed a couple of years to evolve into the Doctor. At their absolute peak - Stieb in 1984-85, Halladay in - I dunno, 2002? 2008? - there's simply not a lot to choose between them.

Halladay has an edge on all contemporary pitchers partially because of the innings he eats and the games he finishes. But obviously he doesn't have that edge on Stieb, who threw more complete games in his four peak years (1982-85) than Halladay has thrown in his career. Of course that reflects changes in how pitchers are used, but... well, it is what it is.

I do think, however, that Halladay has already extended his peak longer than Stieb was able to. Stieb did waste some of his best work on some really crummy teams. Halladay was on one truly lousy team here - he made 21 starts for the 2004 squad that went 67-94. Even that's a half game better than the 1980 team that Stieb started 32 games for, and much better than the 1979 and 1981 teams that Stieb started 43 games for (they went 90-178, which is - gulp - .336 ball.)

But hey - Halladay never got to pitch for a 99 win team either.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 24 2009 @ 10:57 AM EST (#210465) #
Stieb is in the Hall of Merit, but it was close.  As long as he stays away from line drives, Halladay will be in, and it won't be close.

Rally has the peaks as Halladay- 7.5 WAR (2003), 6.9 (2002) and 6.8 (2009), Steib- 7.7(1984), 6.8(1982), and 6.5(1985).  I think we can safely call that a draw. 
Dave and Doc: Better Days | 24 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.