I like the Gathright signing.  Pinch runner behind by a run or game tied, late inning defensive replacement with a lead. 

Agreed. It would be nice to have Gathright on the bench if the team can find the space on the roster. The team hasn't had a true pinch-runner in years. I assume it was a minor-league deal, although I didn't see confirmation of that in the article.

As for Zinicola, it seems like a bit of a strange pick based on the stats. However, I'm sure Antholpolous and LaCava see something in him they like and it'd be good to hear what it is. His Triple-A stats aren't impressive, with a 7.54 ERA over 68 innings with 27 walks surrendered and 8 homers allowed.

I'm not sure if Gathright being on the Jays will increase or decrease the number of times Jamie Campbell mentions how he can jump over a car.

I was wondering what ashington was... Presuming it was a low minors affiliate or some high school known for flame-outs.

Apparently Dana Brown was high on Zech back in the day, expecting him to be in the Majors by 2007. He was ranked the 3rd best proepect in the system at one point, and his slider was ranked as the best.

A quick google search also indicates in Nov 2007 the Nats were unwilling to part with him in a trade for Zach Dials.


Not sure I'm the hugest Happ fan, but I do like those Phillies OF prospects.

Hey, Gathright IS THE MAN!  He'll tell you that himself.

As for Zinicola, I'm sure that selection was influenced by new assistant GM Dana Brown, who was the longtime scouting director with the Nationals.  Zinicola generated a lot of ground ball outs with a ratio of 2.5 to 1 in AA this year and 1.7 in AAA this past season.  He was the Nats minor league player of the year in 2006.  According to the linked story, he throws 90-95 with his heater and also throws a change and slide piece.  He was a 6th round pick of the Nats back in '06.  He had 5 saves with Harrisburg and 32 so far in his minor league career.

   ashington is what you call that city when it loses its place as capital.

Ooooh ... comments like that, TL, are when I wish Da Box had a "Like" button! Bravo.

For all his speed, Gathright has never been a great base-stealer (just 73%) nor had a reputation as a great gloveman (though he'd surely be better than Lind and Snider). With a 12-man bullpen, it's difficult to see someone with his narrow skillset finding a spot at the end of the bench.

In the minor league phase of the rule 5 draft the Blue Jays added a pitcher and didn't lose anyone.  They picked up another Washington pitcher, Ruben De La Rosa, who pitched in the GCL as a 22 year old last season.  De La Rosa is short, 5'9", but he recorded 14k/9ip.  I assume Dana Brown put in a good word on him.

JA Happ and Joe Saunders have a lot in common, in that they both aren't very good, and have no business being centerpieces in a Doc deal.

""Don't rule out them including Cole Hamels" in a potential deal." (NYDaily News) - I'd trade Halladay for Hamels straight up.

93-93: The only difference between them would be the fact that Happ has had decent peripheral rates in the minors while Saunders has shown absolutely no ability to strike anyone out -- ever.

Although I wouldn't be heartbroken if Happ was included in a package with one of Brown/Taylor. However, considering today's comments by Amaro Jr., a deal with the Phillies in any regard doesn't look to be very realistic.

Chuck, UZR likes Joey a lot.  +8.5/150G in CF over his career and +17.5/150G in LF.  If they end up starting the season with Vernon Wells in centerfield, Gathright to center and Wells to a corner as a late inning move is a natural.   Aaron Hill might put in a word for him, too. 

It's funny. If Gathright worked on the little things- improving his bunting and his stolen base efficiency- he might very well have had a decent major league career.  If you are going to make a living putting the ball on the ground, being able to bunt effectively is particularly important. 

I suppose Jesse Chavez is the lightning rod guy for dumping salary? Iwamura for Chavez, Soriano for Chavez. What's next? Zito for Chavez? Wells for Chavez?

It is surprising the Braves couldn't get more for Soriano. Even more surprising than that the Rays are taking on salary ahead of other potential teams. Does anyone make sense of this deal?

I can't get "Lola" from the Kinks out of my head thanks to the acquisition of Zinicola....

Cola, Za-Za-Zini-Cola, Za Za Zini-Cola.

That's right up there with "Brad Wilkerson/Bad Medicine" by Bon Jovi or Calle Johansson/Patio Laterns by Kim Mitchell.  If Zinicola makes it to the bigs, Coke has some advertising possibilities here.  

Why would Phil Coke want to advertise an opponent?

Chuck, UZR likes Joey a lot.  +8.5/150G in CF over his career and +17.5/150G in LF.

Well, as flawed as UZR may be, I certainly trust it over my loosely-formed, second hand impressions. But, even conceding that Gathright may in fact be a top flight defender, he's still really more a 5th outfielder than a 4th, and would still probably have trouble finding space on most 12-man-pitching-staff, major league rosters.

The Jays' bench will consist of four bats: a catcher, Overbay's platoon partner (though the first base story is subject to change), McDonald and a 4th outfielder, presumably a RH Bautista-type (if not Bautista himself) who will platoon with Snider.

Gathright would be an acceptable 4th outfielder (if the club is stuck on the 12 man staff).  He brings enough defence to the table that if you give him 30 starts, it is not the end of the world. 

On the other hand, the team might be reconstructed by the end of the off-season as follows.  LInd at first base, acquired new DH, Hill, Encarnacion, Wells, Snider, new leftfielder.  Your "unnecessarily short" bench would be catcher, McDonald, Gathright and Bautista (who backs up the corner OF and IF). 

Don't forget "Gregory Zaun - has got it goin' on" to the tune of 'Stacy's Mom' by Fountains of Wayne...

As long as the Jays don't platoon at 1B or DH, I admit there is room to squeeze Gathright onto the roster.

Given the righthandedness of the lineup (only Lind and Snider bat left), I'd imagine that the new DH/1B (whatever Lind ain't) would need to be a lefty. If so, he'd likely require a platoon partner, though the already existing Bautista, or whoever, could be his platoon-mate with the defense shuffled around as required.

Does a 75-win team deserve this much thought expended on who should be its 25th man? Especially In December?

If Zinicola makes it to the bigs, Coke has some advertising possibilities here

I'd hope for another sponsor to swoop in for Zinicola and 'Pepsi' Rzepczynski.

Something minor league related to pass along.  The Concord Monitor has a piece on new New (see what I did there?) Hampshire manager Luis Rivera.

Does a 75-win team deserve this much thought expended on who should be its 25th man? Especially In December?

No.  We're nuts.  But, you knew that already! 

I confess that I still am hoping that with the assistance of Tango, AA will try some truly creative new ideas, such as moving to a 6 man pen.  'Tis the season, and all that. 

Just an idea, because I was discussing ways for the Braves to improve their club by trading some pitching, without having to eat some of Lowe's salary. Tommy Hanson + Freddie Freeman (and a lower level guy or two) for Adrian Gonzalez. Who says no?

Ear worm alert!

I could never hear Hakeem Olajuwon's name without immediately singing the chorus to Simply Red's "Holding Back the Years" (Hakeem Olajuwon replacing "I'll keep holding on"). 

Zinicola is an interesting pick. He actually had a better season than his base stats would suggest. The right-hander posted a 3.25 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in 20.2 innings at double-A and a 3.29 FIP in triple-A, so his defense definitely let him down at the higher level, which led to the 47 hits in 33.1 innings, and misleading ERA. The .417 BABIP and 52.5 LOB% are definitely not going to stick.

As mentioned above, Zinicola does have a nice heater (tops out more around 93 mph), which led to a strikeout rate of 8.37 in triple-A, and he displayed at least average control in '09. You also have to love the 56.7% ground-ball rate, as well as the low 11.8% line-drive rate. On the worrisome side, Zinicola has struggled against right-handed batters in each of the past two seasons (.345 average in '09, .318 in '08), possibly due to inconsistent fastball command.

The big question I would have is... Where does Zinicola fit in the pen (which is one of the club's strengths)? I'm not sure I would burn a roster spot in that area, with catcher and the outfield being areas of larger need, but it's a low-risk grab.

Thanks Marc.  I was thinking earlier today that Dirk Hayhurst wouldn't be a happy guy today.  This could be a pre-emptive or an insurance-type selection.  We have heard that Accardo could be dealt and if the Jays ended up dealing from strength by trading a couple of relievers there could be a need at the back of the bullpen.  Depending on what happens with trades it could come down to 'cola or Dirk.

I'm thinking the non-tender date could be interesting in Jays land.

Checking Cot's contracts the following are arbitration eligible.
Bautista: $2.4 last year
Frasor: $1.45 last year
Tallet: $1 last year
Accardo: $900k last year
Camp: $750k last year
League: $640k last year
McGowan: $419k last year
Janssen: $414k last year
Marcum: $405k last year

That is one position player and 6 (!) relievers and 2 injured starters.  Mix in that Downs is signed for 2010 ($4 mil) and you have a lot of guys who you really don't want to go to arbitration with if you are in a 'building' mode.

So, who goes and who stays is the question.  If anyone is interested in trading for a pitcher then great.  Non-tenders possibilities are, most likely, Tallet, Camp, and Janssen imo with Bautista being very likely.

making it a Iwamura for Soriano trade for the Rays.

That's just nuts.

laying aside questions about TB taking on that much salary or whatever, that's a VERY slick upgrade. I am thinking there MUST be another prospect involved because i can't believe the Braves would have settled for a guy who was traded for a guy who could have simply been non-tendered.

I would very much have liked to see the Jays get in on that, if for no other reason than to have an asset to flip or reap picks from down the road.

Kudos to the Rays.

That's just nuts.

The Soriano trade makes perfect sense to me.

The Braves signed Wagner and Saito expecting Soriano to not accept arbitration. When Soriano did accept, he represented an $8M expense that the team was not expecting and wanted no part of (especially in light of their outstanding shopping list), so they traded him for nothing to simply unload the contract. When Soriano consented to being traded (which he didn't have to do), the Braves were presented an opportunity to take a mulligan on offering him arbitration.

Certainly, time will tell if TB has spent their $8M wisely, but the cost was "only" cash. TB effectively dipped their toes into the free agent pool without having to give up draft choices. Had Soriano rejected arbitration, thus costing draft picks, I doubt the Rays would have had any interest.

none of that is relevant to the fact that Soriano has legitimate trade value superior to that which TB had to surrender.

I understand the Braves need to move him, I can even understand needing to move him without taking back salary (although I also think they could have dealt him for someone who made the same or less money who solved their 1B problem) and I understand the Raysa being interested when no draft picks were involved.

but there's no way a guy with Soriano's ability and results should have been dealt for so little this quickly.

Mike Green, with Halladay gone, I think you really do want the extra guy in the bullpen. When the team had Doc these past years, they should have dropped the extra guy. I think what the team really needs are a couple of guys who can go 3-4 innings when the starter can't make it to the fifth inning. Of course, I would probably try to stack a pair of starters to see how it works out (Especially in a rebuilding year!).

If Soriano was your average reliever it would make sense to dump him when he got too expensive. But if he fits the category of young, healthy and dominant that so few athletes, let alone relievers can attest to.... how can he ever be just a salary dump? Yes, he is going to be a little expensive this year. But he's really very good.

If Braves management can't be blamed for stupidity to dump him for so little, then they can certainly be blamed for the lack of foresight it took to paint themselves into a corner with Wagner and Saito. It would be like the Jays signing Bay and then dumping Lind off for whatever they could beg. Or signing Wells to a big contract and then crying poor for half a decade... Terrible mismanagement. Braves fans must be crying over this, no?

Either Soriano's ability and achievement is smoke and mirrors or Atlanta figures he's more likely to injure himself for the season tying his shoelaces than being a serviceable All-Star reliever. No other way to make sense of this whatsoever.

I know the conventional wisdom is that Doc's price will come down, but I think you could make a case that his value will at least hold steady. Basically, what teams like Philly and Anaheim have to realize is that acquiring Halladay may be the difference between being a serious WS contender in 2010 and being merely pretty good. For NY, acquiring Doc means that they attain near-absolute dominance in the AL next year. These are nontrivial outcomes. WS droughts can last for a long time (as Jays fans know so well). And each of these teams has an interest not only in benefitting from Roy's services, but also in preventing other WS rivals from doing so.

Mike Green, with Halladay gone, I think you really do want the extra guy in the bullpen.

One of the core principles of the 6 man bullpen, which if memory serves Mike has espoused in the past, is that the 5th and 6th spots consist of a rotating cast that is frequently shuttled between AAA and the bigs. The advantage of having a 7th man on the active roster is minimal; how often do you need to use 7 relievers in a game or even a series? The advantages of a 5th bench guy might outweigh the disadvantages of a short bullpen, especially if it enables you to form an effective platoon at some position.

The advantages of a 5th bench guy might outweigh the disadvantages of a short bullpen, especially if it enables you to form an effective platoon at some position.

That's the idea, but the very universality of seven man bullpens has made that very difficult to actually achieve. Twenty-five years ago, teams used the extra hitters on their bench to set up a platoon advantage. Now teams use the extra arms in the bullpen to nullify that very thing. It's much easier to do.

If Halladay were to be traded for Upton/Davis, say, what I'd really like to see is a 4 day tandem rotation.  Marcum/Cecil,  W.Davis/R. Romero, Richmond/Zep, and Frasor/Purcey with League, Downs and an 11th man starter type in the pen.

The tandem guys each throw 50-75 pitches, depending on what they have that particular day, the opposition's platoon tendency and the game situation.  That gets you through at least 7-8 innings.  Downs and League are deployed in a way best suited to take advantage of platoon factors, without doing the 1 batter thing unless you're in the ninth in a very high leverage situation.  The tandem guys should throw "complete" games fairly often. 

The aim is to get 160-170 innings/season out of the tandem starters.

Its an interesting thought MG... I'm just not sure if we need to go to that strategy yet.  Our offense next year is probably going to be such that it won't matter how our pitching is, plus our pitching has been fine the past few years. On the chance that the strategy does work, I'd wait until our offense has caught up before embarking on anything revolutionary. 

I'd be interested in what that kind of strategy would do to the salary structure of our staff.  There's nobody going 9 innings- so probably no 10 million dollar men.  But at the same time we've eliminated the middle reliever entirely which means costs there would go up.

Things get a little hazed over in the AL East. Toronto's offense relative to the league was better than its pitching. Just wander over to Fangraphs and compare.

One issue about the tandem rotation idea, which I've wondered about:

How do you decide which starter starts? Do you want the more efficient one, the one with bigger splits, the better one, the worse one, the first one alphabetically?

The one with the higher contract bonus for number of starts made pitches second. 8-)

Speaking of Buck (in the other thread at least), the Royals released John Buck on Thursday. If the Jays don't want to go with Kyle Phillips as their backup catcher, Buck is an upgrade on Chavez with the bat and has a good defensive reputation. If I was AA I'd take a look to see if he'd be interested in backing up the still-to-be-acquired starter here on a reasonably cheap deal for a year plus maybe a club option. I can't imagine he'll get a starting job anywhere.

Back to Soriano again, he's signed for one year and $7.25M.  AP story

And Putz signs with the Pale Hose for one year and $3M.

To recap the Braves moves, they signed 38-year old Wagner to $7M and 40-year old Saito to $3.2M, then Soriano accepted arbitration and they DFA'd Ryan Church and traded Soriano for a ho-hum RHRP.

Maybe Atlanta management isn't deserving of as much blame as it seems for stupidity. Who could have predicted that Soriano, in the position he was in, would be willing to take anything less than a multiyear deal for big money? It's all Soriano's fault --he's making the organization look very stupid.  So what is the matter with Soriano? From the AP article:

“I chose salary arbitration because they had showed interest in keeping me. Then they said I was too expensive and that I wasn’t going to be their closer,” Soriano said from the Dominican Republic.

“Either way I think everything turned out the way it was supposed to and I’m happy to be part of Tampa Bay’s team now. … I had been speaking to my agent and preparing mentally for whatever may happen and wherever I may end up.”

He chose arbitration because they offered it? Who is his agent?

In a tandem starter system, who goes first is up for grabs.  You could always run out the same order,  perhaps in order of quality.  Or you could vary up the order depending on the platoon splits of the typical opponent starting lineup, perhaps with adjustment for the park.  There might be pitchers who are less effective when they come in to the game in the middle of an inning.  If it were my club, I'd leave the whole issue to managerial discretion. 

Each time this has been mentioned, I've thought "It is a good idea, but will never happen." -- it is even more "out there" than the 4 starter rotation. Which is not to say it is not a good idea, I *definitely* think it is... Cito's track record on this issue is a couple of starts with Escobar, which is to say, if the decision is managerial, there's a ton of evidence that he's not going to consider it (but probably more than the average manager, ugh)...

My final conclusion on this idea hasn't strayed from what it was the first time I heard it, if someone tries it, and it works, the team that does it will have a bunch of copycats, if not, no one will ever try it again. Which is to say, here's hoping the Yankees try it with people like Joba/Hughes rather than, um, let's pick a teams at random, wow what luck of the dice, let's say, the Royals/Pirates are the first to try a rotation of tandem starters.

Since this idea (the idea of aging in baseball) has been carried across many threads, here's yet another volley in that debate:

http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/aging.pdf

Full disclosure: I think I'm more and more convinced that JC is correct (for reasons such as I think JC Bradbury has a better handle on interpreting and carrying out regression analyses -- more disclosure: I've done graduate work in statistics) but I'm not sure that opinion will carry the day because the differences are subtle and in some respect matters of taste.