Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The winter meetings begin today in Indianapolis and the major theme appears to be fiscal prudence.  There is no suggestion that either Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or John Lackey will find a new home soon.  The Mariners signing of Chone Figgins could be the biggest news of the meetings.

From the Jays perspective the Roy Halladay soap opera continues but it would be a big surprise if he was traded this week.

In the news today Rob MacLeod leads with the Halladay sweepstakes.  Bidding begins for Halladay

According to the Globe AA is willing to trade anyone:

“There's definitely players you'd rather not trade,” the 32-year-old Anthopoulos said. “But I've told every team when I've talked to them, when I've asked about players – and I've asked about a lot of good players – to open it up, I've told teams flatly, name the price. There's some [players] that we're more willing to part with than others, but we wouldn't rule anything out. I've told every team that I don't want to close any doors when you're looking to get better.”

The bad news is further down the story:

Anthopoulos doesn't think he will be able to strengthen the Blue Jays via trades.  “Certainly there's players I'd love to acquire,” he said. “And just unfortunately at this time there just looks like there isn't a fit.”

AA started on the job with a lot of enthusiasm and was very keen on making some trades to strengthen the young core of the team.  However it appears as though the other GM's are not playing ball and AA is finding it harder than he thought to upgrade his core group.

Jeremy Sandler in the National Post continues with part two of his three part look at the state of the franchise, this part looks at finances and Sandler talks with Paul Beeston.  Here is the money quote from Beeston:

This is the point I have been making for months now.  There is no chance Rogers will increase the payroll to $100m or $120m unless they have the revenue to support it.  As Beeston says they could make a short term investment in a loss if they are confident they will make the money back in the future.

Finally Bob Elliott in the Sun talks 2010 draft and the rumour going around the winter meetings is that the Jays will have $16m to spend on the 2010 draft.  "Jays to open vault for picks" is the headline.

"It's going around the scouting community that Toronto is set to spend $16 million (US) next summer on the June draft signing players," said an envious scouting director of a large-revenue club.

"I don't know how they are going to spend $16 million," said another scouting director. "It must be counting international players signed."

While that is good news the returns will be seen in 2012 at the earliest.

Finally Buster Olney twitters that Halladay is willing to listen to all possibilities no matter where they hold their spring training.  

The LA Angels of Anaheim, come on down, the price is right!

Winter Meetings - Will Anything Happen? | 152 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:13 AM EST (#209094) #
McLeod said:

"Alex Anthopoulos heads into today's start of baseball's winter meetings with arguably the game's best pitcher on the open market and a need for a starting catcher and perhaps a corner outfielder. "

A corner outfielder?  Why?  Because Vernon Wells is ideally suited for centerfield for the next 5 years?  If the club is not realistically attempting to compete in 2010 and doesn't really care about defence, they can leave Lind and Snider and Bautista/Encarnacion as corner outfielders.  If the team is trying to improve the outfield defence in order to give the young pitchers a confidence boost, Wells ought to be moved to a corner and a centerfielder obtained. 

Chuck - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:29 AM EST (#209095) #
In his new, post-lawyer fulltime baseball gig, Craig Calcaterra, ex of Shyster Ball at THT, is at the meetings, posting his observations.
christaylor - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:51 AM EST (#209096) #
$16M on the draft? Either the quote from the scouting director is correct and that number is conflated with international signings or the team is willing to "go Porcello" with a pick. That pick worked out, thus far (although the low K rates are a concern) but I don't think this organization can afford to do a 2010 version Todd Van Poppel or Brien Taylor.

It might be a blessing in disguise that the trade market is just not there... it might push AA in the direction of keeping Halladay signing a Harden/Bedard/Sheets plus a legitimate bat. I think people underestimate how popular a contending (in September) Jays team could be in Toronto. Even with the false "hot start" last year apparently the TV/radio ratings were rebounding and crowds were looking good for meaningless games against the O's and Rays. A 90ish win team that is the playoff hunt after labour day would draw. Especially given that all the other Toronto sports teams are less than stellar... a winner in T.O. would, well, be very novel.

Lastly, I am not even sure what profitability means for the Jays, given the structure of Rogers Corp. The gate pays for the team plus some cash left over? The gate + dome revenues + TV/radio revenues? I wish a reporter or someone could pin Beeston (or anyone @ Rogers) down on this point. If it is just the gate, it is going to be a chicken/egg problem, the team is not going to draw until it spends, but it won't spend unless it draws. Perhaps hitting on draft picks will break the cycle, but I've never been convinced projecting from draft day to the majors is anything other than a gamble. What a headache.
Dave Rutt - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 12:03 PM EST (#209097) #
MLBTR has 24/7 coverage of the meetings, which seems like overkill, but hey, some people just need their fix.
joeblow - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 01:03 PM EST (#209098) #
The Beeston article helps clear up the numbers we will be looking at for the next few years.

"The Jays receive more than US$30-million from baseball's central funds (including television money, licensing rights, revenue sharing etc.) and take in another US$70-million or so from ticket sales, local television, concessions and the like. Every 100,000 tickets sold are worth approximately US$2.5-million to the team's bottom line."

So the party line is that with base payrolls around $70m for the next few years, the club will have flexibility to boost the minor system and also to add payroll to the big league team if they appear to be breaking out.

What the fan hears is: "Prepare to suffer, and if we get lucky and stay in the hunt by June, we may talk about adding players, but by then it will be too late and we're losing again and there's no good players available and yada yada..."

Expect attendance to be closer to 1.5m the next few years. More importantly, you have no chance to capture a whole potential generation of fans now under the age of 20. You won't ever get them, they have too many other things to do.

Mike Forbes - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 02:04 PM EST (#209099) #
Buster Olney has tweeted that Halladay is open to all trade options. If this is true, it definitely expands the market from just the Yankees.
christaylor - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 02:16 PM EST (#209100) #
This little calculation is obvious: but torking from the figures in the article (who knows where they come from...) if the team lost $15M in 2008, spent $100M in payroll for 86 wins and a marginal win is worth $2.5M (which is probably false as this figure probably increases as the team gets closer to a playoff spot and jumps when a playoff berth is secured) then the team needs 92 wins to justify a $100M payroll.

The fun bit of fantasy: the Jays pythagorean winning percentage in 2008 was 93 wins. It is not a stretch to think $100M ought to pay for itself more often than not... trouble is the salary structure of the team is out of whack because of the usual suspects (Wells' deal, BJ Ryan's sunk cost).
Noah - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 03:27 PM EST (#209102) #
Heyman just tweeted that apparently the Angels are willing to bid on Halladay if he will agree to sign long-term.  Rumoured deal would centre around Joe Saunders.
Forkball - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 03:52 PM EST (#209103) #
A flyball pitcher with a low strikeout rate entering arbitration with a lot of wins the last two years.  I can't really see the Jays having Saunders being the focus of a trade for Halladay.

I wouldn't doubt that the Angels were offering him, but I can't see the Jays seriously considering it, unless he was a secondary player in the trade.

Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 03:59 PM EST (#209104) #
Heyman said Joe Saunders "possible bait".  If that's it, it aint worth biting.  Saunders is already arb-eligible, and he's a pitcher.  If the club is trying to win in 2010, they ought to keep Halladay.  If the club is building for the future, Saunders is near the bottom of the players you want.  Trout, Conger, Bourgos et. al would be the ones that you need to think about. 
John Northey - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 04:21 PM EST (#209105) #
Those figures have trouble passing the sniff test.  Shared TV revenue over 10 years ago was around $10-15 million per team, the licensing rights have been stated to be worth as much as the TV rights, the internet revenue is supposed to be getting into a couple of million per team, then the Jays probably get some revenue sharing one would think.
Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 04:36 PM EST (#209106) #
Right.  Revenue sharing is supposed to total $440-$450 million this year, according to Selig.  I don't know how much the Jays' share of it will be, but I am guessing that all in, they're good for more than 30m. 
John Northey - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 04:40 PM EST (#209107) #
Revenue sharing, on average, then is $14.7 to $15 million per team.  Given the Jays cry poor a lot they should be getting the average and if they aren't then their gross revenue should be around $200 million (given past Selig statements about MLB wide revenue being over $6 billion = $200+ million per team).
DH - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 05:02 PM EST (#209108) #
Saunders would seem to represent 50 cents on the dollar given the evident drawbacks re: arbitration and tendencies but he does satisfy the supposed need for a ML ready starter. That, however, is curious given the presence of Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Zip and the slew of others at the back end. AA should be aiming for the biggest haul of talent, preferably near-ready, but quality vs. quantity. An offer from the Angels of Rivera, Reckling, Bourgos, and Conger would fit the bill. If there's a need to fill a veteran arm in the rotation then the money saved on Halladay - Rivera's salary could be deposited in the bank account of one of the many reclammation projects such as Harden, Bedard, Sheets, etc.


Ron - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 05:30 PM EST (#209109) #
Last time I checked Canada has a MLB team. I have well over a hundred channels and I can't find the MLB network. Is Rogers just going to continue to pull their thumbs while they wonder how they can get enough Canadian content to please the CRTC? Just give us the American version please. Bring ESPN/ESPN2 while you're at it. Not every single Canadian cares about their channels having a certain amount of Canadian content on it.



TamRa - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 05:32 PM EST (#209110) #
per Rosenthal-
(maybe already posted but I'm not taking the time to read the thread first or I WILL get scooped)

"The Rays have asked Toronto officials about Halladay, according to one major league source, and might be willing to offer star pitching prospect Wade Davis and outfielder B.J. Upton.

Toronto could then flip Upton to a third team."

throw in Brignac and we have a deal, and forget flipping Upton, I'd keep him.


TamRa - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 05:35 PM EST (#209111) #
And too be clear, I'm down with including some gray going there way, including cash, if need be to make it work.


Jdog - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 05:49 PM EST (#209112) #
Im with you on that Will.  Brignac, Upton and Davis for Halladay and Cash or prospect would work good for both teams.  Toronto gets a SS and CF they badly need. Rays get a true ace and only really deal a couple blocked prospects and an OF they seem to be tiring on. Also Roy would probably love to play in Tampa considering he lives in the area. 
DH - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 06:11 PM EST (#209113) #
I'd write a cheque for Pat Burrell's salary to make that deal happen. I wouldn't want Burrell but six years of Davis, Brignac and a couple of Upton is worth doing whatever you can to make it happen.
Petey Baseball - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 07:05 PM EST (#209114) #
Love the idea of a possible three team swap for any package of players.  Also good to hear that AA is apparently looking to get creative, me thinks it would take a lot of extra work to pull of a three team thingy compared to a conventional trade as well.
 I tend to disagree respectfully Will, if this rumor is true Upton should be flipped for more prospects.  The Jays already have an injury prone, underachieving CF remember?
Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 07:43 PM EST (#209115) #
I'd much rather have Desmond Jennings than Upton or Davis or Brignac.  Halladay and a prospect and cash for Jennings and Davis would really work for me. 

As for a straight Halladay for Davis and Upton, that would be something worth considering depending on other options.  The key would be Wade Davis.
Brent S - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 08:11 PM EST (#209116) #
Jennings would be best case scenario, but I would bet that Davis/Upton will be the best package that Halladay would fetch. I'm always willing to be proven wrong though.

Whether or not this is true, simply the fact that another team might be interested could drive up Halladay's value. If the Angels start poking around with greater interest, things could start to get interesting.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 08:35 PM EST (#209117) #
Gammons has blown the Upton/Davis longshot rumor out of the water (mlbtraderumors). Why on earth would the Rays trade a key offensive player and a top pitching prospect for what would likely be a one-year rental? Particularly when they don't know yet what the two teams who finished far ahead of them will look like.
TamRa - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 10:36 PM EST (#209118) #
Well that applies only to the extent you find Gammons more trustworthy than Rosey (which I don't favor one over the other either way) - all through this process you get one reporter sure it's "A" and another insisting it's "B"...and often it turns out to be C but oh well.

I can see why TB would do it though, there window of opportunity at this point is only so big. they can easily afford to deal Davis and Jennings stands to be the long term replacement for Upton who WILL go at some point, whether or not it's this winter.

the only big downside for them is that that dealing Upton makes it more imperitive to re-sign Crawford. they'd have to be willing to spend there if not for Doc. But then replacing Upton with a league minimum guy would free up some flexibility on that too.


rtcaino - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:38 PM EST (#209119) #
There is always a certain negotiating window that may quell team's fear of a rental situation.

Hopefully these negotiations are not too public. I would hate if there was a deal struck between the teams, which many were happy with, only to find the team and Doc couldn't come to terms.

andrewkw - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:39 PM EST (#209120) #
Adam Everett re-signed with The Tigers for 1 year and 1.55 million.  How was Johnny Mac worth basically twice this?  Who were the jays bidding against, who decided if they couldn't have Mac they didn't want a better player for less.

I mean it's not a huge deal, but still seems silly to me.  Better to get into the habit of spending market value on role players now when it doesn't matter vs in a few years from now where giving multi year deals to bench players may make a difference.
rtcaino - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:41 PM EST (#209121) #
Also, 16m seems insane.

However, such reports indicate that some may have been a bit quick to jump to conclusions regarding the draft.
Thomas - Monday, December 07 2009 @ 11:56 PM EST (#209122) #
Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration. I believe he was one of the players ahead of Scutaro in terms of the Class "A" status, so that's good news for Jays fans.

Carl Pavano also accepted arbitration from the Twins. I'd be fine with that, as a Twins fan. Pavano is okay on a one-year deal, far less so on a multiyear deal. He didn't pitch as poorly as his ERA indicates and, if healthy, could give the Twins 30 league average or better starts for $6 million or so.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:32 AM EST (#209123) #
Everyone who accepted arb potentially made the pick for Barajas a bit higher too, and all subsiquent picks for that matter
TamRa - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:37 AM EST (#209124) #
Here's a thought-

Braves might need a 1B and need to get rid of the roughly $7 million that Soriano is going to make...

How about proposing dealing Overbay and some boot for Soriano?

Seems unbalanced to me because I have to assume that some other team would make a better offer but clearing 1B for Lind and getting a more economically sensible value out of that seven mil makes sense for us, plus you get the potential draft picks if you don't extend Soriano


Chuck - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 07:13 AM EST (#209126) #
How about proposing dealing Overbay and some boot for Soriano?

Players accepting arbitration can't be traded until June 15.
Wildrose - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 08:10 AM EST (#209127) #
Players accepting arbitration can't be traded until June 15.

Unless that player gives permission ( at least according to Rosenthal)

Soriano, because he is a free agent, cannot be traded before June 15 without his permission. But he might grant that permission to go to a club that would use him in his familiar late-inning role. -- Ken Rosenthal


 
Forkball - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 09:05 AM EST (#209128) #
Barajas declined arbitration.  I'll be curious to whether he gets at least $2MM from some team.  I'm doubtful, but Pudge just got $6MM over 2 years so who knows.  Catcher is a bit of a crazy position to predict.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091208&content_id=7772620&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor


Denoit - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:33 AM EST (#209129) #

Adam Everett re-signed with The Tigers for 1 year and 1.55 million.  How was Johnny Mac worth basically twice this?  Who were the jays bidding against, who decided if they couldn't have Mac they didn't want a better player for less.

McDonald is making 3M over two seasons. So he is actually making 50K less than Everett this year. McDonald and Everett are not that far off. Just goes to show that Maybe the Jays didn't really overpay that much for McDonald. Plus you get a class act and a fan favourite back in town.  Everett Batted .238/.288/.325 in 118 games and McDonald was .251/.271/.384 in 73 games.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:40 AM EST (#209130) #
Everett is 3 years younger and didn't get guaranteed a 2nd year despite a very similar skill set, that's the point. That has to make one wonder whether the Jays were bidding against themselves when they extended JMac.
Chuck - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:51 AM EST (#209131) #

Unless that player gives permission ( at least according to Rosenthal)

And the conspiracy theorists are now running with this.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:40 AM EST (#209132) #
Adam Everett's UZR/150 over the last 4 years:  27.2, 29.2, 11.2, and 13.6.  John McDonald's UZR/150 over the last 4 years: 4.5, 12.4, -1.4, and 2.1. 

If you're going to get a good glove, why not get a good glove?

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 12:10 PM EST (#209133) #
Seems unbalanced to me because I have to assume that some other team would make a better offer

Do you mean that some other team would make a better offer for Soriano, or for Overbay? I doubt that Soriano would lack suitors, but Overbay is going to be hard to move. Unless the Jays look at taking back salary and some nominal Scott Wiggins/John Hattig/Brian Wolfe type return, I suspect he'll be playing out his contract with the Jays hoping he makes the Type A cutoff. He's certainly not going to bring back Soriano, so I suspect you meant the former.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 12:21 PM EST (#209134) #
Upton might make a nice piece for the Yankees, and Austin Jackson would fit in well in TO  (this is not to say that a straight-up deal would be reasonable from a Jay perspective, but it is certainly possible to construct a workable 3 way deal arising from a Halladay deal). 

Anthopoulos seems to be handling this part of it well.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:01 PM EST (#209135) #
I'm not sure the Yankees have the prospects to entice the Jays to trade Upton for Jackson+, and such a trade would further signify to me that this team, despite all its pandering, has zero intention of competing in the next few years. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade an All-Star calibre CF whose salary is controlled in arbitration and has already shown what he can do at the MLB level for a CF prospect.
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:01 PM EST (#209136) #
I believe that Austin Jackson may be dangled by the Yankees as well Mike.  He is reportedly one of the prospects that is being dangled in the three team deal between the Tigers, D-backs and Yanks.  The deal involves Granderson and Jackson from the Tigers and Scherzer and potentially Chris Young from the D-backs.
Denoit - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:03 PM EST (#209137) #

If you're going to get a good glove, why not get a good glove?

Im assuming its because McDonald is willing to accept the backup role and not be a disturbance to the team. I think defensive statistics are flawed anyways but I know I wont win that argument here.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:05 PM EST (#209138) #
Would the Yanks acquiring Granderson take them out of the running for Doc?
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 01:26 PM EST (#209139) #

The three way trade between Detroit, Arizona and New York is reportedly almost a done deal.  If it doesn't close today, it seems like it almost assuredly will by the end of the winter meetings.

 

http://blog.mlive.com/cutoffman/2009/12/live_blog_tigers_curtis_grande.html

Thomas - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:02 PM EST (#209140) #
I would have thought some team would have been able to beat Austin Jackson, Kennedy and Coke in a deal for Curtis Granderson. I appear to be mistaken, though. Perhaps Granderson's troubles against lefties have diminished his value more than I thought or perhaps Jackson projects a bit better than I thought at first glance. Still, this is a good move for New York and I'm bit a sick of seeing those.
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:13 PM EST (#209141) #
That was a deal where Detroit needed to cut salary pure and simple.  If they were in a good financial state, they would have never pulled the trigger.  They are trying to save their pennies so they can sure up Verlander.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:15 PM EST (#209142) #
That's assuming Edwin Jackson is being traded for Max Scherzer and Mark Schlereth, which sounds like too much to me. The Tigers are receiving a nice haul here.
fozzy - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:21 PM EST (#209143) #
Perhaps Granderson's troubles against lefties have diminished his value more than I thought or perhaps Jackson projects a bit better than I thought at first glance.

I thought Granderson was a whole lot better than a 28OPS+ against lefties last year too, which severely diminishes his value (making him a 100OPS+ player overall, despite all of the HR and SB). Unless they plan to platoon him with Melky, it seems like a fair bit to give up, especially since Jackson was being bandied about in the Halladay rumours.
Forkball - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:23 PM EST (#209144) #
I don't think you're going to see the 2007 Granderson anymore.  His OPS the last three seasons:  .913, .859, .780.

It's funny, you look at his line last year and you see .249/.327/.453 you would never guess he hit 30 HRs.

A nice player, particularly if you spot his days off well, but it's not something I'd get too worked up over.

The Tigers got 3 players at or near the majors in return for he and Jackson.  Seems like a pretty good deal from their side.  I'm not sure I really get the move for Arizona - a starter and reliever for a starter and reliever (unless they think Kennedy is going to start).
Ron - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:28 PM EST (#209145) #
What an incredible deal by Cashman and company. We just picked up a star CF who is only 28 years old and has 3 more years left on his contract without giving up a major piece off the current 25 man roster. Oh by the way Austin Jackson was drafted and developed by the Yankees (8th round pick in 2005).

 At this point, it seems like there isn’t much of a market for Halladay given the circumstances. There’s a lot of knocks against a trade for Halladay right now:

 - will be 33 years old next season (an age where most players are on their downside of their career)

- has a lot of mileage on his arm

- only 1 year left on his contract/makes a very high salary

- will likely take at least 3 prospects to get him/giving up at least 18 years of service time for 1 year

- if Halladay demands an extension, you’re going to be committing a huge amount of money/years for an “old” pitcher. Not many pitchers remain at a Cy Young level in their mid 30’s

 

Gerry - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:29 PM EST (#209146) #
Granderson is a Yankee stadium player, left handed hitter who can take advantage of the short right field wall.  I assume his numbers would benefit from the switch from Tiger Stadium to the Bronx.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:38 PM EST (#209147) #
The Yankees should still be players on Mike Cameron...it would make for a lethal CF platoon, and they could choose to play Cameron in RF vs. RHP most of the time with Swisher or Damon at DH.

"Oh by the way Austin Jackson was drafted and developed by the Yankees (8th round pick in 2005)."

Yeah, a high-schooler who they conveniently gave first round money to keep him from going to high school. Please don't pretend like he's a prize jewel unearthed by the Yankees' system.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:39 PM EST (#209149) #
er, *college
AWeb - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:42 PM EST (#209150) #
As much sense as it would make in a vacuum, the Yankees did not acquire Granderson to platoon him. If the Yankees started getting top players just to platoon them, they would stop going there. Players want to play, and earn their next contract as well. There are limits to what the Yankees can do, although they are essentially "the best available player at every position". There is no reason for players who are marginal/average starters elsewhere to go there and sit on the bench, unless they are close to retirement and hoping for a ring.
Paul D - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:49 PM EST (#209151) #
if Halladay demands an extension, you’re going to be committing a huge amount of money/years for an “old” pitcher. Not many pitchers remain at a Cy Young level in their mid 30’s

Halladay is not going to 'demand' an extension.  Teams are going to demand that he sign was as part of trading for him.
Ron - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 02:51 PM EST (#209152) #
Yeah, a high-schooler who they conveniently gave first round money to keep him from going to high school. Please don't pretend like he's a prize jewel unearthed by the Yankees' system.

29 other teams in baseball had the chance to draft him and talk him out of his basketball scholarship to Georgia Tech. The Yankees signed him for only $800,000. Every single owner in baseball could afford that amount. This just another example of why going over slot is a good strategy in the draft.
MatO - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:09 PM EST (#209153) #

We just picked up a star CF

When did you start working for the Yankees? 

Who's the star the Yankees got?  I thought they got Granderson.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:10 PM EST (#209154) #
There's a massive difference between having the chance to draft him and the means to make risky, over-slot signings.
Jdog - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:34 PM EST (#209155) #
The D'backs must be worried about Scherzer's arm. He has had arm troubles in the past. Without that worry there was really no reason to make the trade. Kennedy will probably be a decent 5th starter over in the weaker league, he definitely needed out of the AL east.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:34 PM EST (#209156) #
The part of this trade that would seem to benefit the Jays is that the Tigers effectively got Scherzer for Jackson, which wouldn't be a shabby return for Halladay. It would seem there's a good market for starting pitchers.

Unless the Diamondbacks are insane, or there's some problem with Scherzer I dont' know about.

Jdog - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:35 PM EST (#209157) #

A question for Mick

Do you have an evil brother named Ron who may or may not work for the Yankees?

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:45 PM EST (#209158) #
Granderson has hit particularly poorly at Comerica.  He's a career .284/.353/.516 hitter on the road.  In other words, like Vernon Wells (offensively) in his best years.
Brent S - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 03:54 PM EST (#209159) #
A newspaper out of Pittsburgh is reporting that the Pirates and Jays are talking about a trade involving Ryan Doumit. Doumit is coming off wrist surgery and is owed about $9.15m over the next two years. Depending on the price, it's not a bad pickup.
rpriske - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 04:04 PM EST (#209160) #
Further rumours are linking Accardo to this deal.
rtcaino - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 05:41 PM EST (#209161) #
A catcher that can hit right handed pitching?

If he's healthy I like that, depending on what we give up of course.
lexomatic - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 06:16 PM EST (#209162) #
brent your link doesn't work. i just get voids
Brent S - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 06:34 PM EST (#209163) #
Sorry about that. Serves me right for trying to use the built in software for links.

Here is the link to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette re: Doumit.

Denoit - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 06:41 PM EST (#209164) #
Doumit would be a nice pickup. If he has a bounceback year and Arencibia is ready he could again be flipped in the offseason. He is a good buy low guy right now.
Brent S - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 07:15 PM EST (#209165) #
Hold on to your knickers, Bauxites, it's getting interesting:

It was widely reported in July that Aybar was the sticking point in the Angels' trade talks with the Blue Jays about Halladay, the dominant right-hander who won the 2003 American League Cy Young Award. Toronto wanted Aybar badly; the Angels refused to part with him.

"I never said Aybar was the sticking point in that deal," Reagins said today at the winter meetings. "He has tremendous value for us, but Brandon Wood can play shortstop and third base, and Maicer Izturis can play shortstop, third base and second base, so there's some flexibility if we wanted to include any of those three guys in a trade."

Link

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 07:36 PM EST (#209166) #
FWIW, I like the Upton/Davis package better than the Aybar/Saunders/Napoli package.  I hadn't realized that this was Upton's first year of arbitration eligibility.  Always check Cot's. :)
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 07:38 PM EST (#209167) #

A question for Mick

Do you have an evil brother named Ron who may or may not work for the Yankees?

Well, not that I'm aware of -- just the two older sisters -- but I'd have to ask Ma and Pa to be sure. Nuffin'd serprise me ennyways, leastways anudder brother out dere in da Bronx with our half-bros Derek and Robinson and Joba.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 08:18 PM EST (#209168) #
Aybar/Napoli/somebody who's not Saunders
4
Doc, or Doc and downs or some such

has a lot of appeal to me IF we don't get the dude from Pittsburgh first....well, heck, I guess it does anyway cause we could always flip Doumit or play him in RF if need be.

In fact, if you got Napoli and somehow managed to get him signed to a favorable deal it might make JPA a trade chip in a year or two.

One wonders, if you did get Aybar in a deal, don't you then have to go to Gonzo and ask him to give you clearance for a trade?

christaylor - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 08:47 PM EST (#209169) #
"...there's a real good chance we'll see that as an Angel."

Slow news day. Discussing Halladay for Aybar/Saunders make the Angels seem less like actual trade partners than a team than a team that the rumour mill has decided ought to be a player for Halladay.
Ron - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 08:53 PM EST (#209170) #
When did you start working for the Yankees? 

I’m a special advisor to the front office :)

Who's the star the Yankees got?  I thought they got Granderson.

I think it’s fair to call a 30 HR CF who fields his position well a star. I’m sure the majority of GM’s would agree with me.

There's a massive difference between having the chance to draft him and the means to make risky, over-slot signings.

Last time I checked every owner in MLB is at least a multi-millionaire. Signing Austin Jackson for $800,000 isn't going to financial cripple any club. Every club has the opportunity to make over slot deals but many choose not to because they want to please Uncle Bud/Ownership isn’t financially committed regarding the draft/GM's don't understand the value of the draft. A team like the Jays don’t like to go over slot and as a result they lost 3 of their top 4 picks over a couple hundred thousand. While they wanted to draw the line in the sand with these picks they had no problem forking out 2.4 million for Jose Bautista. It doesn’t make any sense.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 08:58 PM EST (#209171) #
I think the Angels are just hyping Wood to increase his trade value. The Halos know they have a good thing in Aybar--he isn't getting dealt for Roy.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 09:00 PM EST (#209172) #
Not many pitchers remain at a Cy Young level in their mid 30’s

Why do people say this about Doc? "Not many" starting pitchers are Roy Halladay either.

Halladay isn't in the class of pitchers who go south in their mid-30's like for instance Bart Colon or Freddie Garcia or Jack McDowell. In fact, he's already outlasted most of those sort of guys age wise.

Doc is in a class with Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson and John Smoltz and Greg Maddux and other great pitchers who were SO great that the endured to 40 and beyond.

The LAST thing another team has to worry about on doc is tying up money on an "old" pitcher.

Now, the large number of innings is possibly a more valid concern, but you look at, for an example, Clemens - he average 230 IP per season for his first 10 full seasons (age 23-32) and he averaged 217 a season for his next 10 full seasons (age 33-42)

By contrast, Doc has averaged 214 a season over his previous 8 seasons.

So no, I don't think the innings are a concern either.

COULD he break down next year and fade away into overpriced irrelevance like, for instance, Jason Schmidt?

Sure. So could Felix Hernandez or Josh Johnson for that matter.

But Doc pitching at a Cy lev el at age 32 is already enough of an accomplishment to prove he's not one of those early/mid-thirtiys fades that so many good-but-not-great pitchers become.

Doc is a GREAT, and the greats have a better track record of lasting, at least in recent decades.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 09:18 PM EST (#209173) #
Last time I checked every owner in MLB is at least a multi-millionaire. Signing Austin Jackson for $800,000 isn't going to financial cripple any club. Every club has the opportunity to make over slot deals but many choose not to because they want to please Uncle Bud/Ownership isn’t financially committed regarding the draft/GM's don't understand the value of the draft. A team like the Jays don’t like to go over slot and as a result they lost 3 of their top 4 picks over a couple hundred thousand. While they wanted to draw the line in the sand with these picks they had no problem forking out 2.4 million for Jose Bautista. It doesn’t make any sense.

Actually, I think there is more to the story - perhaps a tale we as fans will never know - when it comes to the Jays and the last draft.

I say that because the Jays essentially did pretty much exactly the same thing in 2009 re Marisnick as the Yankees did with Jackson (and to a lesser extent with Hobson too). Marisnick signed for almost $700K over his slot value - almost three times what the slotting system called for.

So the story of the Jays 2009 draft is not, IMO, a story of slavish devotion to slot. In fact, there were a couple of other low round picks that the Jays went well over slot for (I think Daniel Webb got like 3 times his recommended slot value too didn't he?)

So, um...no, the Jays didn't lose those three pitchers because they were slot obsessed, whatever the actual reason might have been.

That said, your initial point is valid. the Yankees didn't get Jackson solely because they went over slot any more than the Jays got marisnick, Thames, Sobolewski, or other players that we here brag about "stealing" because they are big spenders.

Rather, they did what many teams do occasionally and gambled a lower round pick on the POSSIBILITY that they could convince the "unsignable" player to sign.

that's not an argument for or against the baseball savvy of the Yankees organization. Lots of teams take those chances, occasionally they work out, often they don't.

When they do - and when the player develops as projected - you look smart. But that's pretty much just an illusion created by circumstance.

IMO, the Yanks are no more, or less, to be congratulated on jackson than the Jays are on Marisnick.


Going back to my original point though, I do wish Motor-Mouth would let it slip somewhere along the way what the REAL reason was that the jays felt Marisnick and Hobson and Webb were worth going over slot on and the upper round guys weren't.

Rich - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 09:51 PM EST (#209174) #
Halladay isn't in the class of pitchers who go south in their mid-30's like for instance Bart Colon or Freddie Garcia or Jack McDowell. In fact, he's already outlasted most of those sort of guys age wise.

Doc is in a class with Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson and John Smoltz and Greg Maddux and other great pitchers who were SO great that the endured to 40 and beyond.

The LAST thing another team has to worry about on doc is tying up money on an "old" pitcher.


This is 100% true IMO.  In addition, I would add:

1. Doc has the reputation of being one of the game's most dedicated and prepared players, both in terms of his physical conditioning and mental approach and preparation.  Although he has suffered some injuries over the past few years, it's perfectly reasonable to project Doc as one of the best pitchers in the game 4 years from now (and that is not just through rose-tinted specs).

2. Physically, Doc has several traits that portend well for continued success as he ages.  Despite his heavy workloads, he has outstanding mechanics.  He has had very few arm problems throughout his career.  He has an ideal pitcher's body - tall and powerful but not heavy like a Colon.  Even if he loses some velocity he likely to maintain his outstanding command, heavy sinker, and strong braking ball.  He should continue to be a force even when he can no longer touch the mid-nineties.

This is exactly why I don't want to see him traded within the division.  Even if AA does a great job rebuilding and the Jays are a good team in 3 years I can't see them overtaking the Rays, Sox, or Yanks with Doc as their ace (though obviously there are other variables involved).
Hodgie - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:13 PM EST (#209176) #
Maybe it is just me, but a 100 OPS+ season from a 28 year old CF that fields his position well is, a valuable season but is he a star? I don't hear anyone claiming Franklin Gutierrez is a star but that 26 year old CF just put up a 103 OPS+ season in Safeco and Granderson is certainly no Gutierrez in the field.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:23 PM EST (#209177) #
Come to think of it, forget Mike Cameron. The perfect platoon candidate for Curtis Granderson is a free agent, and his name is Reed Johnson. That would likely give the Yankees the most valuable CF spot in baseball, with each mashing the opposite side. I'd love to see Reed play for the Yankees.
Jim - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:38 PM EST (#209178) #
The story of the Jays 2009 draft was that Rogers pulled the rug out from under them.  They drafted under one set of circumstances and then tried to sign the players under a different set. 

Make all the excuses in the world for the Non-Yankee franchises but New York was sitting on Austin Jackson and were willing to deal him.  If the Yankees decided they wanted to win 120 games in 2010 by going all in by trading their prospects they could. 

The Blue Jays are in this position because of how the franchised was managed.  It isn't Boston's or New York's fault. 



zeppelinkm - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:42 PM EST (#209179) #
Can we get any other sources on this?

I have these two, but there is simply no way this can be true, is there?

Rangers offered Smoak and Feliz for JJ?

http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/marlins_not_dealing_josh_johns.html

and

http://espn.go.com/dallas/columns/rangers/blog/_/post/4725755

That's all I got. How comparable are Johnson and Doc? I know JJ is younger. But common... Roy Halladay is Roy freaking Halladay. JJ is cost controlled for 2 more years. I really can't see that extra season being the difference maker. Could it be?

Jim - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:45 PM EST (#209180) #
Here is the problem with Halladay:  He's too good.

Halladay is such a great pitcher that he's impossible to get value for in a trade.  Whoever would be able to pay him has to pay such a ridiculous price in controllable talent that it's nearly impossible to come to an agreement. 

For example the Red Sox understand that you need to package something like Buchholz, Bard and Westmoreland to acquire someone like Halladay, then they realize they won 95 games last year without Halladay and Buchholz/Bard/Westmoreland/15 million dollars is awfully hard to trade for one year of a starting pitcher, even if he is the best pitcher of his generation.

Magpie - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:46 PM EST (#209181) #
Two more reasons Halladay has an excellent chance to still be extremely effective five years from now:

1. Not only are his innings pitched significantly less than someone like Clemens, those innings were far more efficient.  He regularly is among those major league pitchers who throw the fewest pitches per inning.

2. Whlle he's still throwing around 92 most of the time, with occasional gusts up to 94, he should still be able to pitch at a high level if and when his velocity eventually drops to 89 or so. For one thing, he's already done it - he spent the entire 2007 season pitching that way, possibly just to see if he could.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:47 PM EST (#209182) #
I've heard that Feliz/Smoak thing from about 15 places, ranging from local DFW radio to newspapers to Web sites. But they're all citing each other as sources, and nobody has cited anything back to Jon Daniels or Larry Beinfest. I suspect this is the Fish trying to drive the price WAY up. Johnson is a fine pitcher -- one of baseball's 10 best, maybe -- but Ranger fans would storm the stadium with pitchforks if that deal were consummated.
Gerry - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 10:48 PM EST (#209183) #
As of today the Jays do have two left handed hitting outfielders.  One option might be to sign Reed Johnson especially if the Jays non-tender Jose Bautista.
Thomas - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:03 PM EST (#209184) #
Interestingly, ZIPS has Toronto as one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. I didn't realize it had shifted from a nearly neutral park to an undisputed pitcher's park according to the projection model.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:05 PM EST (#209185) #
I'd love to see Reed play for the Yankees.

Me, too. After all, Sparky isn't really much of a player anymore.  He plays CF pretty badly, and since turning 30 his OPS+ have been 66, 98, and 89. He's been on the DL in each of those seasons. He's almost exactly two years older than Vernon Wells and these are not the sort of things that normally turn around as a player approaches his mid 30s.

I think the Angels have a better situation in CF than the Yankees. And the Orioles. And the Dodgers. Not to mention Cleveland. Seattle, now that I think of it. And there's a reasonable chance that either the Mets or the Rangers could have the best of them all.
Rich - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:06 PM EST (#209186) #
Halladay is such a great pitcher that he's impossible to get value for in a trade.

There's a good discussion about this today at BP.  Basically the author says AA is in a very tough spot and all he can do is try and pick from the best offer out there.   The chances of actually getting fair value in a trade are very slim.  Santana is a case in point, though the Jays did do pretty well when they traded Clemens.  If Doc would agree to a mid-season trade the Jays would have a lot more leverage but as of right now they have very, very little.
Rich - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:09 PM EST (#209187) #
Interestingly, ZIPS has Toronto as one of the worst hitting parks in baseball.

How does the model work?  Does the fact that the Jays have had good pitching staffs and lousy offences for a few years now have any effect?  I don't see how the park itself can change over time if the dimensions, backgrounds, and weather remain constant.  On the surface that seems like a bizarre conclusion.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 08 2009 @ 11:35 PM EST (#209188) #
I think the Angels have a better situation in CF than the Yankees. And the Orioles. And the Dodgers. Not to mention Cleveland. Seattle, now that I think of it. And there's a reasonable chance that either the Mets or the Rangers could have the best of them all.

In the last 3 years there's been 2 CFs who posted an OPS greater than the .899 Granderson + Johnson put up last year, if you play their platoon splits. One was Josh Hamilton in 2008 at .901 (who is a bad defensive CF) and the other was Curtis Granderson himself in 2007. I disagree with the notion that Reed isn't much of a player anymore and that he plays CF "pretty badly", and I have no idea why his OPS+s are relevant when he won't be facing a RHP in my plan (which would presumably also help to keep him healthy).
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 12:07 AM EST (#209189) #

a reasonable chance that either the Mets or the Rangers could have the best of them all.

I can't comment on the Mets' situation, but you must be thinking Josh Hamilton there for the Rangers, and he's moving to a corner. They've been very clear that Julio Borbon is the starting CF on Opening Day. He's a nice player, maybe a potential future All-Star and Gold Glove, but he's not even in the current conversation for "best of them all."

Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 12:12 AM EST (#209190) #
Incorrect, 92-93. The perfect backup CF for the Yankees is Coco Crisp. He's a better pickup than Reed Johnson because he would certainly post a higher batting average and probably OPS as a full-time player. (This is important because if Granderson gets hurt, off the top of my head I don't think the Yankees have anyone in their system to replace him. They have Gardner, but he's unproven so he doesn't count.) Conveniently, Crisp also switch-hits, so he can start against the lefties Granderson can't hit. In fact, Crisp's career OPS is 25 points higher against LHP than against RHP! It's a perfect fit. Why do you insist on overrating Johnson, who has no discernible baseball skills and never did? It must be because he hustled a lot as a Jay. You need to be more objective and stop simply pumping up players you like.

(In all seriousness, Reed's CF defense is not good and I'm not as convinced as you are that he is a sure bet to continue to destroy LHP. Aging and the AL East exchange rate are real. But the Yankees have never really cared about defense and their pitchers K everyone, so whatever. I think it would be a sensible move.)

rtcaino - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 12:24 AM EST (#209191) #
RJ v. Lefties over last three years.


.329.395.483.878

Of course, this is no unique skill. But he's a fan fav, vet clubhouse presence, and has a good defensive reputation. We'll start the bidding at 2 years, 1.5 each?
John Northey - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 12:34 AM EST (#209192) #
Doc also has a lot in common with...
Dave Stieb: 10 wins after age 32
Frank Viola: 13 wins after age 32
Bret Saberhagen: 26 wins after age 32
Dwight Gooden: 17 wins after age 32
Pedro Martinez: never over 10 wins after age 33
Juan Guzman: 0 wins after age 32 after 200 IP and a 125 ERA+ at age 31 (yeah, not in the class of the others but did get an ERA title too)

An interesting group there of guys who everyone thought would last well past 32. All pitched against Clemens and Johnson the like but none would last ala Clemens.

There is a reason we all think of Clemens, Ryan, Johnson, Maddux and the like as greats - they are rare. Halladay at this point is a great Blue Jay but isn't yet a HOF'er and many things can happen to prevent the HOF from ever calling his name. Just ask Dave Stieb.
Hodgie - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 01:30 AM EST (#209193) #

Forgive me John but what exactly does Doc have in common with the aforementioned group?

Gooden was essentailly done because of various demons and injury issues by age 29, Juan Guzman's most similar pitcher through 32 was Earl Wilson, threw 200+ innings only 3 times in his entire career and consistantly battled injury. Pedro is the least similar pitcher I can think of to Halladay in every physical way (excluding performance) whose small frame has just plain broken down. Viola was a fine, durable pitcher but hardly a dominating ace in the mold of Halladay. Stieb at least is a word of caution as he fell off a cliff after injury at age 33 and was never the same again. Saberhagen is the only pitcher that is even listed as similar through age 32, and he struggled for years before that with injury and only approached 200 innings once after his age 25 season.

Not saying that Doc is guaranteed to sustain his dominance into his 40's but the pool of pitchers usd in the comparison you drew doesn't seem to be all that relevant.

TamRa - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:00 AM EST (#209194) #
^^^
Great answer.

And just to complete the circle - IIRC Stieb made notorious use of one pitch that was thought to be death to arms...a slider maybe?

He also averaged 275 innings a season from '82 to '85 and given that he also averaged 88 walks during that time my guess is he threw way more pitches per inning than Doc has.

I think being similar has to do with something more than just numerical results.
---------------------------------
For what the B-R comparables are worth, there's Mike Mussina up near the top of the list too. Over the previous 7 seasons he had posted a 3.62 ERA, a 128 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP and 224 IP a year

Over the next five seasons, he averaged 3.95, 112, 1.21, and 194 in those same stats.

For comparison Doc's last seven seasons in those stats look like this:

3.16, 142, 1.22, 210

So Doc was something like half a run better (which begs the question why he's the second best comparison) and if he slipped to the same degree Mussina did he'd still be noteably better than Mussina was in his prime.

Without getting into the Clemens type Hall of Famers, Mussina is an example of maintaining a high level of value too

(albeit, I for one am convinced that Doc is in fact a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher much more worthy of comparison to Clemens et al than comparison to Viola and the like)


rtcaino - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:46 AM EST (#209196) #
In fairness, the cutter that Doc relies on heavily is not reputed to be the best for a pitcher's forearm.
Forkball - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:57 AM EST (#209197) #
And I thought he adjusted by barely throwing that beginning a couple years ago, no?
rtcaino - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:08 AM EST (#209198) #
Iirc, he experienced tightness and made an adjustment. But still throws it regularly, as I understand.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:20 AM EST (#209199) #

Any offer with Joe Saunders in it does not impress me.

I wonder how realistic Montero/Hughes from the Yankees actually is. I don't know if NYY would do it , depends on how high they are on Montero, but that's the best rumored deal in terms of upside that I have seen so far (if it is even an offer at all).

Just don't trade for need. Get the package with the highest upside. Period. If it happens to be from New York or Boston, fine. Just end the circus already and give Roy a chance to pitch in the post season before he retires.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:24 AM EST (#209200) #
FWIW, fangraphs shows Doc as having used his cutter more and more every season. I know there are issues with pitch type recognition software so the results should be taken with a grain of salt.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P

It's odd because I too remember Doc talking about reducing the use of his cutter, so I wonder if he's been able to get more and more sideways movement on his sinkers (as he throws them more) that they are being classified as cutters?

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:31 AM EST (#209201) #
Actually, that is the only logical conclusion, that it's his sinkers being classified as cutters. There is simply no way he threw cutters 41% of the time and his fastball 31% of the time. That's too extreme to make sense.
Lugnut Fan - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 10:07 AM EST (#209202) #
I could see that kind of split.  A cutter is a fastball....It is just a two seam fastball that through with putting more finger pressure on one side than the other.  It wouldn't put much more stress on your arm than a four seam fastball if at all and acts similar to a slider without the same elbow concerns.  Greg Maddux made a HOF career out of throwing a cutter almost exclusively.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 11:16 AM EST (#209203) #
Or maybe he throws two kinds of cutters. There's a good breakdown of that here - http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2009/12/eyes-have-it.html

Jose Bautista could also be a nice pickup for the Yankees, if they aren't bringing back both Damon and Matsui. They could start him in LF with Damon at DH and Cabrera/Gardner in CF vs. LHP.
Brent S - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 11:21 AM EST (#209204) #
I have no idea why Hank Conger's name isn't coming up in rumours with regards to Halladay. A great hitting catching prospect seems like it would be right up the Jays' alley. The only question would be the Angels' reluctance to trade him.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 12:47 PM EST (#209206) #
My point was that pitchers can be Cy Young contenders and even appear durable at times then suddenly fall off a cliff after age 32.  Age 32 is a killer age in baseball terms for some reason.  I recall (but don't have links) studies that showed a major drop off at that age for players who were All-Star caliber falling off the face of the (baseball) Earth at that point. 

Basically, in 1990 Stieb was viewed as a workhorse, Cy Young contending ace who you could count on.  Then suddenly his career was over.  Viola was also an ace who suddenly had his career end.  Gooden, same thing (drugs mixed in).  I mixed in Guzman because his name came to my mind as a Jay pitcher who ended quickly although I forgot just how quickly his career ended.

When things go wrong for a pitcher their career is over with rare exceptions.  Doc could (and I hope) be an exception.  The exceptions tend to go to the HOF.  The rest end up as guys we have good memories of and wonder 'what if' with.  Locking in Doc for $20 mil a year for 3 years right now could be a major mistake for whatever team does it.

In the end it is better to trade a guy a year too soon than a year too late (cough...Rios...cough).

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 02:36 PM EST (#209208) #

Another trade? Jamey Newberg reports just now,

According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles and Rangers are “nearing an agreement on a trade” that would send former O’s closer Chris Ray to Texas for Kevin Millwood and “some cash,” according to multiple Orioles team sources.  Zrebiec writes that “[m]any of the particulars have been agreed upon, but the there are still a few details to work out, including a review of medical records.”  Ray, a righthander, had Tommy John surgery on his elbow in August 2007. Stay tuned.

Gerry - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 02:55 PM EST (#209209) #

Yorvit Torrealba is going back to the Rockies apparently.

The Halladay story appears to be picking up steam.  While the Yankees and Red Sox don't appear to have stepped up, the Angels and Phillies are interested.  It is good to have some competition if Halladay is to be traded, hopefully we won't end up with a bottom of the barrel offer.

Finally BA are not too high on Moises Sierra.  According to Callis today Sierra is a long way away from being the Jays #1 pick.  The top ten is released by BA next Monday.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:00 PM EST (#209210) #
Millwood's a league average starter at this point in his career, but the O's needed a couple of pitchers to give them 180 league average innings to make things interesting in 2010. One down, one to go.   Millwood's salary is $12 million.  I am guessing that the Rangers sent $2-$3 million along. 

It's easy to imagine the O's having a decent rotation by July. Candidates include Guthrie, Millwood, Bergesen, Uehara Hernandez, Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta.  It wouldn't be a shocker if two of the last three pitchers are very good, and there is a supporting cast. 

Lugnut Fan - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:07 PM EST (#209211) #
Another trade potentially in the works for the Tigers.  Apparently the Dodgers and Tigers are looking for a third team to include in a Carlos Guillen / Juan Pierre swap.  The Dodgers apparently are looking for a pitcher.  I don't see this happening because I can't imagine another team would find Guillen attractive.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers got back into the Halladay sweepstakes in the very near future.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:19 PM EST (#209212) #
Every G.M. has his achilles heel that is the bane of his existence.   Alex's just might be Catchers.   Lyle Overbay for Chris Snider - discussing who kicks in $$$$.   (Try Lyle +$5.0 Million for Chris Snider and their #10 prospect).   Free Agent Yorvit Torrealba - unable to meet $$$ and/or time?   Ryan Doumit trade?????
Brent S - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:22 PM EST (#209213) #
Via <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-wednesday-1.html">MLBTR</a>:<br><br><i>"SI's Jon Heyman says the Blue Jays requested <b>Jesus Montero</b> and one of <b>Phil Hughes</b>/<b>Joba Chamberlain</b> plus more from the Yankees for Halladay."</i><br><br>I have to ask, now that the Yankees have traded Austin Jackson, who is the "more" in the Yankees' system?<br><br>
Brent S - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:28 PM EST (#209214) #
Sorry about that, everyone.
Ron - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 03:41 PM EST (#209215) #
According to Jon Heyman, the Jays asked the Yankees for Montero, Joba or Hughes, plus more. If this was requested in a face to face meeting I wonder if Cashman was able to keep a straight face. At this point, the Jays would be lucky to get Hughes plus filler. It doesn't appear teams are tripping over themselves to get Halladay. The Jays would have been better off taking the 5 players the Red Sox offered last season.





SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:07 PM EST (#209216) #

I'd be happy with Montero/Hughes for Halladay. A simple 2 for 1 trade. Forget the other stuff. Take quality over quantity. Plus it has been a while since the Jays gave a Hall of Fame calibre pitcher to the Yankees (Clemens and Cone in the 90's).

PeterG - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:07 PM EST (#209217) #

People much closer to the talks than you, strongly disagree. The final package will at least be the equal to that requested of the Yanks but likely not more.

Matthew E - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:12 PM EST (#209218) #
I say if the Yankees want Halladay, they can dashed well pony up some value for him. And if they don't want to, maybe somebody else will. And if nobody wants to, then he's quite welcome to spend another year in a Toronto uniform, and the Jays can take the draft picks. Why make things more easy for the Yankees? They should have to pay more.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:17 PM EST (#209219) #

Not sure you're right Ron. The Jays are better off with another season of Halladay, the extra revenue, and the two picks than Hughes plus filler.  Getting a #3-5 starter back in the deal is senseless for the Jays.  A #3-5 starter is the ONLY thing our farm system has proved capable of producing the last few years.  We have like 4 Phil Hughes' right now. Ditto for Joe Saunders and Anaheim...

We need a BAT... or 7. Otherwise no deal! And if there isn't a decent deal to be had then there's nothing wrong with running Halladay for another season and protecting Romero, Zep and Cecil. That's why the compensation system exists in the first place. 

If the Yanks don't want to give Montero then they can go sign Eric Bedard, or worse yet watch him beat C.C. 1-0 in October next year as a member of the Red Sox. Ditto the Angels and Aybar/Wood.

PeterG - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:23 PM EST (#209220) #

This from Sherman of the NY Post less than 2 hours ago. Appears to discredit Ron's assessment:

And the Yankee contingent is signaling they are in by making it clear to Toronto officials that they are willing to discuss major prospects even after letting the touted Austin Jackson go in the package for Granderson.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yanks_remain_in_hunt_for_halladay_RVrAn1rTCOqnuk3TKslVlI#ixzz0ZEEsXcT2
And the Yankee contingent is signaling they are in by making it clear to Toronto officials that they are willing to discuss major prospects even after letting the touted Austin Jackson go in the package for Granderson
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/yanks_remain_in_hunt_for_halladay_RVrAn1rTCOqnuk3TKslVlI#ixzz0ZEEsXcT2

Denoit - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:28 PM EST (#209221) #
Montero is the kicker for me, if they include him and 2 other filler guys I would be tempted. I wouldnt let the deal breaker be Joba or Hughes.
Jim - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:41 PM EST (#209222) #
If they get Montero AND Hughes then they should have a parade for AA when he comes home.  Huge bat moving out from behind the plate to first base.  If he lives up to the hype it's Delgado 2.0.
Ron - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:41 PM EST (#209223) #
Not sure you're right Ron. The Jays are better off with another season of Halladay, the extra revenue, and the two picks than Hughes plus filler.  Getting a #3-5 starter back in the deal is senseless for the Jays.  A #3-5 starter is the ONLY thing our farm system has proved capable of producing the last few years.  We have like 4 Phil Hughes' right now. Ditto for Joe Saunders and Anaheim...

I disagree. I would much rather have Hughes and filler (assuming this is the best trade offer out there) than Halladay for one season plus the 2 picks. As much as we love Halladay, he doesn't have a big impact at the box office. Once you remove the noise in attendance (opening day, games vs. Red Sox/Yankees), crowds at Halladay games aren't much bigger than the rest. The Jays had a hard time filling up half of the stadium during what most people thought was Halladay's last game (I'm talking about the game near the end of the season and not the trade deadline). The 2 draft picks the Jays would receive wouldn't be high picks. It's not like the Jays would be getting the 1st and 4th overall picks in the draft. I think you would find a lot of fans and people inside baseball that consider Hughes to be better/have the potential to be better than a number 3-5 starter. I would include myself in this group. I see a big time power pitcher that is only 23 years old. He has a good chance of becoming a number 1 starter.
Paul D - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 04:59 PM EST (#209224) #
If they get Montero AND Hughes then they should have a parade for AA when he comes home.  Huge bat moving out from behind the plate to first base.  If he lives up to the hype it's Delgado 2.0.

If he can stay at catcher, and I realize that's a big if, you could be looking at Mike Piazza 2.0. 
92-93 - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 05:07 PM EST (#209225) #
It's not about drawing on Halladay starts, it's about drawing because Halladay is on the team. If Doc is traded and the casual fan doesn't recognize the players coming back, this team is going to have a hard time filling seats after lying to the fans about what their plans for 2010 were. Most people are smart enough to read straight through Beeston's "building, not rebuilding" crap, or AA's need for a "model of sustained success". I'm still trying to figure out why the latter means the team can't spend a competitive amount on payroll this year.
Ron - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 05:28 PM EST (#209226) #
It's not about drawing on Halladay starts, it's about drawing because Halladay is on the team. If Doc is traded and the casual fan doesn't recognize the players coming back, this team is going to have a hard time filling seats after lying to the fans about what their plans for 2010 were. Most people are smart enough to read straight through Beeston's "building, not rebuilding" crap, or AA's need for a "model of sustained success". I'm still trying to figure out why the latter means the team can't spend a competitive amount on payroll this year.

Just take a look at the attendance from last season, despite having Halladay on the roster the Jay did not draw well. As the season went along, it got worse. There looked to be about 6000 people inside the Skydome during some of the games in September. Generally winning is what sells tickets, not having certain players on the roster. The Jays are going to have a hard time selling tickets next season regardless of what players are wearing the uniform. It’s hard to sell tickets for a franchise that has been irrelevant for about a decade and a half.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 05:42 PM EST (#209229) #

I haven't looked at the reported numbers but from personal experience the attendance definitely increases for Roy's starts. Even if the announced attendance is similar, the actual attendance does increase, and that does have some value.

Beyond that my main point was reinforced by 92-93 that season tickets and packages would be down without Halladay (My God could they go down). The Jays need at least another year of building up Hill, Lind and Romero before they can be the focus of a fanbase.

As for the two draft picks, I would point out that Hughes himself wasn't drafted with the "1st and 4th picks in the draft".  Those picks have plenty of value, Cecil was a compensatory pick for example, there are plenty of others.

Speaking of Cecil, I think you would find alot of fans and people inside baseball that consider him to be better than a number 3-5 starter.  I would NOT include myself in this group, nor would I include myself in the Hughes group. I'm just using it to illustrate that Yankees prospects routinely get more hype than other prospects, but that doesn't make them any better. Where are Wily Mo Pena, and Drew Henson right now? Kevin Maas (ok I'm dating myself)?

Essentially, based on the above I don't see how Hughes has significantly more value than two Comp picks. Obviously in the next 2-4 years he does, but we're not realistically competing then and we'll have wasted arb years.

owen - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 06:31 PM EST (#209233) #
Even if the Jays suffer a slight dip in revenue because we lose Halladay - and I'm not convinced that this would happen - who cares?

It's not as if Jays attendance figures dictate salary projections.  In other words, it's not as if 1000 more fans a game will lead to a big-ticket free agent signing next season.  The Jays will draw huge crowds when they win.  AA knows that.  Beeston knows that.  Frankly, I think Rogers knows that.  And while it may or may not be true that Halladay's presence on the team impacts ticket sales, when we as fans say "the Jays would be better off keeping Halladay and protecting our numbers at the gate," we really mean "Rogers" would be better off with Halladay, not "the Jays" as a baseball team, which should be what we, as fans, truly care about.  I think.

metafour - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 06:54 PM EST (#209237) #
this team is going to have a hard time filling seats after lying to the fans about what their plans for 2010 were.


What? I think Anthopolous has been fairly clear about the plan being to take some sort of step backwards in order to rebound sometime in the future.  What has he said to suggest otherwise? Because he's made it clear that:

A) We aren't going to be players in the FA market (ie: we aren't spending to try to make it look like we want to compete)
B) Trading Halladay is as much a priority if not a bigger priority than it was at last year's trade deadline.
C) He has mentioned a few times that we have NO "untreadable" assets (ie: we aren't "close" to winning)

I fail to see how he has suggested anything other than the fact that we WANT to trade Halladay and that doing so means we are more or less retooling.  Lets make it clear that no one is going to go out and say "We aren't going to spend any money, we're rebuilding so dont bother showing up if you expect a winner."
metafour - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 07:13 PM EST (#209239) #
Hughes has more value than compensation picks because in all reality you're going to have to hit it pretty big to get a prospect anywhere near Hughes' value with a late first round pick or a sandwich pick. I realize that Hughes hasn't come close to living up to the hype, and he may have been a bit overrated as a prospect (due to NYY status), but for all intensive purposes he dominated the minors and was one of the top prospects in baseball. At his age I think it is a bit ridiculous to assume that his value has plummeted all the way down to "#3-5 starter". Prospects always have more value than draft picks...see: Kevin Ahrens.
dan gordon - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:28 PM EST (#209243) #

Rotoworld says the Toronto Sun is reporting that the Angels have offered Joe Saunders, Eric Aybar and OF prospect Peter Bourjos for Halladay, and that the Jays would trade Gonzalez to make room for Aybar at SS.  I don't have a very high opinion of Saunders, with his mid 4's ERA and low K counts.  Aybar would be nice.  Bourjos has speed and has hit some at A+ and AA his last 2 years at ages 21 and 22.  Not much power and doesn't walk a lot.  His splits last year indicate he hits lefties very well.  Sounds like a mediocre package to me.  I'd much prefer the Davis/Upton thing with Tampa if there is any truth to that, or a Yankee deal that got them Joba or Hughes and Montero if that would be possible.  I think the Phillies could do better than that Angels offer. 

Brent S - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:38 PM EST (#209244) #
I really don't understand any offer that is built around Saunders. He's just entering his arbitration years and should expect significant increases due to his high win totals. His low K rates (4.7/9 in 2008, and 4.9/9 in 2009) and rising HR rate (1.0/9 in 2008, and 1.4 in 2009) aren't looking terribly pretty.

Aybar becomes a free agent after 2012, yet has the potential star power at a scarce position needed to build a deal around him. However, aside from Napoli/Conger, I'm not sensing the Angels have a lot to offer other than scaring a couple of the other teams into action.

Jdog - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:41 PM EST (#209245) #
Aybar is a nice little player who would solve the SS hole, but I would rather a package be centered around a potential impact power bat. Also with all of the catching the angels seem to have it would be foolish to do a deal with them without getting a C thrown in (Conger or Napoli). Im still pulling for the Phillies to get this done. At the very least this deal would keep Halladay out of pinstripes which would help me sleep at night.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 08:49 PM EST (#209246) #
Brent, I agree. I think - hope - both sides are aware that Saunders is the centerpiece of the Angels' offer only in the same sense that Encarnacion was the key to the Rolen trade.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:08 PM EST (#209247) #
Who would play SS for the Angels if they trade Aybar? My impression is that Wood is more of a 3B, apart from other issues he might have (BP's Joe Sheehan made some comment about his low walk rate...or maybe it was a high K rate).
Jim - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:15 PM EST (#209249) #
One way or another Roy Halladay isn't going to be on the Blue Jays on Opening Day in 2011.  What's more important:  Using him to help rebuild the franchise or trying to pretend that the casual fans haven't already deserted the team?
Jim - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:19 PM EST (#209251) #
The Jays have been seemingly in love with Aybar for years.  I have to admit, I wasn't high on him going into last year but by the end of the year I had really warmed up to him.  If it was Aybar, Saunders, Bourjos and one more B prospect I might be able to live with that.  It's hard to tell how serious Boston and New York are or if they are just playing chicken with each other.
Jim - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:21 PM EST (#209252) #
If the Yankees would do Montero and (Hughes or Joba), the press conferences would have already been held.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:37 PM EST (#209253) #
I think the question AA has to ask himself is: how do these players contribute to the rebuilding of a contender (which, realistically, will take at least a few years)? That's why I think he should aim for a top prospect or two (for example, Montero, Brown or Kelly), even if there is a significant risk that they won't pan out, instead of older players who may have a lower ceiling or become too pricey too fast.

The Angels offer (assuming it's not just a rumour, which is a big if) is certainly respectable, if a bit on the low side. If they threw in a higher-ranked prospect like Reckling or Conger instead of (or in addition to) Bourjos, I think AA would pretty much have to take it. *Unless* when faced with the newfound competition for Doc, the Yankees bite the bullet and deal Montero.
PeterG - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:41 PM EST (#209254) #
If the Angels deal is finalized as is, the jays would net an additional prospect as they should have no problem trading Gonzalez for at least a B prospect if not better.
Jim - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:50 PM EST (#209255) #
Didn't the rumor say that Gonzalez was going back to Anaheim in the trade?  He has to approve any trades made before June 15th or so right?
Gerry - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 09:57 PM EST (#209256) #
The good thing about the Angels offer is that now other teams see there is a legitimate offer that the Jays might accept.   So if the other teams have a better offer it is time to step up.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 10:09 PM EST (#209257) #

I don't think its that much of a stretch to say that Hughes may peak as a 3rd starter (or a 5 on the Yanks). 

Either way I'd be happier with the Anaheim offer.  Saunders can be flipped the moment he starts to get expensive, but Aybar is they key to the deal obviously.  Plus they won't be taking a playoff spot from us during Halladay's tenure.

greenfrog - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 10:18 PM EST (#209258) #
I agree. The other good thing about it is that if the Angels are offering Aybar, Saunders and Bourjos, it's only a starting point--they pretty much have to be expecting a counteroffer. If I were AA, I would make a counteroffer of Doc for Aybar, Saunders, Reckling and Conger.

But I'm still not convinced that this rumour is accurate.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 10:42 PM EST (#209262) #
IMO, Napoli and Aybar have to be in the deal, even if you have to include Downs or someone to get the right balance.

If we have to take Saunders instead of Weaver, then I'd be very interested in seeing him flipped, I don't want a middling guy like him standing in the way of our youngsters.

I haven't heard anything about Gonzalez going back the other way but that would be an easy thing to agree to if it helped the deal.

Ideally, Napoli + Aybar + Weaver comes back For Doc and Downs and Gonzo or some such...but as long as we come away with two very solid guys and another player or two...



Thomas - Wednesday, December 09 2009 @ 10:58 PM EST (#209264) #
Bastian reports that Marco Scutaro phoned Cito to thank him for everything he did during Scutaro's time with the Jays and Cito thanked him for his play and effort over the past two years. Classy thing for Scutaro to do and, potentially, indicates that either he was not part of the supposed mutiny from last year and/or Scutaro still remains very appreciative for the adjustments in his batting stance suggested by Cito and Tenace.
westcoast dude - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 12:46 AM EST (#209267) #
So long as Halladay stays out of pinstripes, then I am a happy man and the world is unfolding as it should be.  Anything else is all good. Anything. Of course, if he stays put and mentors the young pitchers, well, that would be the icing on the cake. Time for a Laphroaig Quarter Cask nightcap, Cheers!
Jim - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 07:39 AM EST (#209269) #
It will be pretty funny if they trade for Aybar and end up with 3 shortstops on the roster.  Based on how quickly AA moved to sign McDonald to an extra year, there must be a market for him..... right? 

Brent S - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 08:40 AM EST (#209270) #
Three pieces of news:

1. I'll lead off with the more exciting piece. Our good friend Kenny Rosenthal is reporting that the Phillies have jumped into the fray and offered J.A. Happ and one of Brown/Taylor. I have to believe that if this is a serious offer, this puppy is pretty much done.

2. Not only have the Phillies shown interest, but Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News quotes one source who says ""Don't rule out them including Cole Hamels" in a potential deal."

3. According to the Toronto Sun, the Jays have signed Joey Gathright. No word as of yet whether it is a major or minor league contract.

Forkball - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 09:00 AM EST (#209271) #
I can't imagine the Jays are signing a player in the minors last year to a major league contract.

Unless they really want to see car jumping in person.
92-93 - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 11:29 AM EST (#209284) #
What? I think Anthopolous has been fairly clear about the plan being to take some sort of step backwards in order to rebound sometime in the future.  What has he said to suggest otherwise?

The liar I was referring to was Paul Beeston, the guy who told us he was scaling back payroll in 2009 so the team can see what it has for a 2010 push, all while claiming he was searching for a president (for over a year) who ended up being himself.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, December 10 2009 @ 11:41 AM EST (#209286) #

I can't believe you left Gathright until #3. This is a HUGE shift in philosophy from this organization.  To sign someone who's only skill is speed? I literally can't remember the last guy we had like that, Nixon? You might stretch to say Stewart, but he was a regular with a very good BA.

The ability to pinch run and put someone in scoring position is a HUGE strategic advantage and might help to fix our terrible record in 1 run games.  That's an absolute WORST case scenario if he makes the ML roster; there's always the chance that he learns how to hit, or just has a fluke year of BABIP too. 

My memory has his OF defense surprisingly bad, but at least he's another option in CF other than Wells.

Winter Meetings - Will Anything Happen? | 152 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.