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A hat tip to KaneCoKeith who alerted me that Dimaond Futures had begun ranking the farm systems of the major league teams with the Blue Jays.  Chad Jenkins is the top rated prospect.  In case you were wondering they didn't pick the Jays out of interest, Toronto is their 30th ranked minor league system.

And in other news Dick Scott has a new home.



Diamond Futures makes the following claim:

Diamond Futures is a site that is over a decade in the making. We use a unique blend of analytical tools to strip away the ‘hype’ and uncover the substance that lies behind prospective Major League players. We have a track record of not only identifying who will succeed or fail and why, but of doing it first. We have developed a probabilistic methodology that recognizes that no analytical system can accurately anticipate the unique nuances inherent in predicting future performance of human players. So we don’t deal in ‘absolutes’, rather we deal in definable ‘likelihoods’. Our comparative player database has over 40 years of data and contains over 12,000 player profiles. There are plenty of places to go if you want to find conventional wisdom…at Diamond Futures we rewrite it!

Even though they make that claim they do note in a recent story that prospect evaluation is still a risky business.  42% of their top 100 prospects from 1999 have had solid major league careers, still less than 50% for the best of the best players. 

Their rankings are here.  Diamond Futures assign a grade to each prospect, as does John Sickels, as well as ranking the players.  Here are their top rankings, write-ups are in the link.

1. Chad Jenkins - B+

2. Zach Stewart - B

3. JP Arencibia - B

4. Moises Sierra - B

5. Yohermyn Chavez - B

6. Henderson Alvarez - B

7. John Tolisano - B

8. Kevin Ahrens - B

9. Tim Collins - B

10. Tyler Pastornicky - B

11. Jake Marisnick - B-

12. Brad Mills - B-

13. David Cooper - B-

14. Gustavo Pierre - B-

15. Eric Thames - B-

Others of note (all C+): 16) Carlos Perez, C; 20) Justin Jackson, MI; 21) Brad Emaus, 2B; 23) Brian Dopirak, 1B; 24) Darin Mastroianni, CF; 27) Daniel Farquhar, RP; 28) Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B/1B;

In other news Dick Scott has been named the Astro's minor league field coordinator.

Prospect Ranking - Diamond Futures | 36 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, November 17 2009 @ 09:33 PM EST (#208478) #
Excellent article.

The assessment that the most recent year's draftees are at the top of the system out of lack of competition rather than merit, was a constant throughout the Ricciardi years.
iains - Tuesday, November 17 2009 @ 10:05 PM EST (#208480) #
I find it interesting they rank Marisnick 11th when he has yet to play a game in the minors.
tercet - Tuesday, November 17 2009 @ 10:51 PM EST (#208483) #
Boo 30th, even thought I think that's a bit low, BA / BP will probably have us 25~ or so.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 17 2009 @ 11:22 PM EST (#208486) #

I really like their top 10 list best so far , even better than Da Box - with respect to the 30th ranking, I am waiting for WILLRAIN to write his

long winded defence of JP's farm system - always good for a laugh. 

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, November 17 2009 @ 11:36 PM EST (#208487) #
I find it interesting they rank Marisnick 11th when he has yet to play a game in the minors

Most of them would be ranked higher had they never played in the minors.
TamRa - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 04:48 AM EST (#208488) #
I am waiting for WILLRAIN to write his long winded defence of JP's farm system - always good for a laugh.

When did I suddenly become your whipping boy?

and when did it become cool to take potshots at other posters out of the blue around here like this was some other lame forum populated by children?

Geez. I'm about ready to say "f*** it" to the whole idea of being a sports fan.

too much damned immaturity.

jerjapan - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 08:16 AM EST (#208491) #
Hear hear Will.  I don't always agree with what you have to say, but you always argue it fairly and well, and I very much appreciate that you are willing to go against the grain when necessary and call it like you see it.   Amidst all the keen observers here, you are one of the posters who I read closely as often as possible. 


rtcaino - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 08:42 AM EST (#208492) #
I agree that comment was probably unnecessary.

But for all the reasons why being a sports fan is prob a waste of time, I wouldn't rank some internet criticism as one of them. Just gotta get that dirt off your shoulder.
Denoit - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 08:59 AM EST (#208494) #
How does a guy who has never pitched a game in pro ball become the #1 prospect. I dont care how thin your system is that just doesnt make sense. I understand there is alot of potential with him but there have been numbers high draft picks with lots of potential never see a sniff of the Major Leagues.  I think Brad Mills, Zach Stewart or Henderson Alvarez should all be higher untill he proves something in pro baseball. But I guess thats just what it is an opinion...
Geoff - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 09:12 AM EST (#208495) #
How does a guy who has never pitched a game in pro ball become the #1 prospect.

This futures game is getting to be a tough business. Next thing you know they will be ranking kids who haven't picked up a baseball yet. And what comes after that? The unborn.
PeterG - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 09:18 AM EST (#208497) #

I may take some heat for this, but I don't necessarily agree that the farm system, despite its shortcomings, is quite as bad as some are making it out to be, Obviously, there are no A rated prospects and I assume this is what drags the ranking down. Were it not for injuries, there would be A rated prospects that would have played in the minors last year but were on the big club instead so that situation may not be as dire as it seems on the surface. However, I agree there is a definite gap between the likes of Snider, Romero, Cecil,  Rep, and the prospects at the top end of the system.

However, in going through the BB rankings 1-30 plus those who just missed, it appears to me that there is more depth to the system than is the norm and that some of those prospects in the 20-35 range could actually make it. Some of these guys who had off yerars last year should improve. The system seems particularly strong in pitching depth. So, is it just me trying to be overly optimistic when only pessimism is due or does any of what I'm thinking make sense. Thioughts?

 

 

nanook - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 09:20 AM EST (#208498) #
ComebyDeanChance: Great name. That's about it for positives.


christaylor - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 11:03 AM EST (#208501) #
Ignore this mook. No matter how closely he's been reading the box, he's not exactly put himself and his opinion out there by posting of 37 comments in 4 years. Coming out of the blue with a potshot is just plain against the spirit of this site -- something I thought I'd left behind after I stopped reading the Jays MLB board.
christaylor - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 11:11 AM EST (#208502) #
This list agrees with what many have commented about the Jays farm systems - many second tier prospects that are about the same ranking with few top tier prospects.

Another way of looking at this is there's depth in the system and a chance a prospects could take a jump forward.

JP Arencebia is a good example, he floundered this year, but has a decent chance of taking a big step forward. He's only 24. If he comes up and is an above average hitting catcher with decent defence and that's a B prospect, then B prospects are very valuable - especially given how much that production would cost on the open market. If he doesn't make an impact, no big deal, how many C prospects have failed in the Jays system. Developing them is difficult.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 11:32 AM EST (#208503) #
Ignore this mook

Ah yes.  Keema from The Wire.  Great show with lots of baseball content.

I haven't seen the people behind Diamond Futures before.  I do agree that the Jay organization has many B, B- and C+ prospects and no A and A- prospects. It's a bit deceptive, as the club's best young players (Snider, Cecil, Zep) are all up, and one or two of them might very well have been given more time at triple A. 
John Northey - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 12:24 PM EST (#208504) #
Yeah, if either AJ was resigned or Marcum or McGowan were healthy in 2009 then odds are Cecil and Zep would not have been in the majors enough to lose rookie status which would've helped the rankings a bit.

Still, it will be interesting in a few years to see how things work out.  For example, in 2002 when JP took over BA's top 100 had 5 Jays listed - 36. Josh Phelps, c, 70. Jayson Werth, c, 75. Gabe Gross, of, 81. Orlando Hudson, 2b, 98. Dustin McGowan, rhp.  Phelps never got 500 PA in a single season, Werth has been solid for 3 years now but just one with 500 PA (and made the All-Star game, who'd have thunk?), Gross has yet to get a 400 PA season in, Orlando Hudson has been great (4 GG, 2 ASG), McGowan has qualified for the ERA title once (barely) but has a lifetime 93 ERA+.  So out of everyone in the system that year the biggest hits were Werth and Hudson (not counting anyone who didn't make BA's top 100).

Heading into this year the Jays had 3 on the top 100 - Snider, JP Arencibia, and Cecil.  2 are major leaguers now (although Cecil will probably get more AAA time) while one dropped in rankings I strongly suspect.

So, what does it all mean?  The Jays system coming in 30th in anyone's ranking is a bad sign.  Yes, some talent has made it but we should have a few more.  As many have said, if the draft this year had actually signed all the top picks things would be different but not drastically so.  The key is getting prospects who look good on paper (such as Jackson) to develop rather than fade.  Rios looked like a bust a few times, as have others.  Still, once all the majors come out with their rankings if the Jays still are bottom 5 then JP being let go was a necessary move as is revamping the entire minor league system here.
earlweaverfan - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 03:55 PM EST (#208516) #
85bluejay, over the years you have contributed many solid arguments and opinions that I have taken time to read and in many cases, found persuasive.  I trust this is the kind of response you hope for when you take the time to write.

Just two comments.

First, this shot against WillRain is the least value-adding comment you have made in all those years.  Its time to raise your game.

Second, agree or disagree with him, WillRain has provided as much thoughtful, well-researched, well-reasoned input as any volunteer contributor on this site.  Moreover, he is among the most likely to raise perspectives not already beaten to death by others.

Conclusion:  Ad hominem attacks like this only serve to lower your brand, not his.



brent - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 06:22 PM EST (#208520) #
After the team signs its 10 picks from the first 100 drafted players (2010 draft), this farm system thing will be all cleared up and everyone will be saying how the Jays will be stacked for the future.
92-93 - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 06:33 PM EST (#208521) #
There is no reason to think that will happen. Beeston handled the Paxton negotiations, and Anthopolous the Eliopolous ones - lot of good that did.
ayjackson - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 07:42 PM EST (#208523) #

Beeston handled the Paxton negotiations, and Anthopolous the Eliopolous ones

I smell a conspiracy.

Denoit - Wednesday, November 18 2009 @ 09:26 PM EST (#208526) #

It does seem weird that ownership has said they are willing to spend the money if the plan makes sense. Well doesn't drafting high ceiling players fit into a good plan? Maybe there was something going on behind the scenes we just didn't know about. Antholopolous has alot of cards in his hand to turn this team around. Hopefully he plays them right. Looking back I didn't think the failure to  sign the players was as big of deal as some people made it out to be. They still had the picks this year. Now I think it might have even been a good idea now that a new direction is in place the scouting is revamped and there is stability going forward.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 10:35 AM EST (#208534) #
20th: Chad Jenkins http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Chad-Jenkins-2.shtml was signed for $1.39Million.  37th: James Paxton http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/James-Paxton.shtml initially wanted $1.5 Million, counter-offered $1.35 Million and refused the offered $1.0 Million.   Prove to me that Paxton should be paid equal to or more than Jenkins.  I think Beeston got it right.  Too much of the draft is fueled by the hype of the moments leading up to the draft, and not on real substance.  That's how Paxton got there and that's how Eliopoulos got there.  I think Anthopolous got this one right too.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 11:19 AM EST (#208536) #
Those Paxton negotiations seem to me to be about small potatoes.  If the organization thought well enough of Paxton to draft him (notwithstanding his well-known bonus demands),  I can't understand why they wouldn't fork over the additional 350K. 

The only "rational" explanation I can give for the team's behaviour is a progressive tightening of the team's finances by ownership.  That fits with other well-known facts about the last year (at least). 

Gerry - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:05 PM EST (#208538) #

From BA, some releases by the Jays:

RHP Jonas Cuotto, RHP Ryan Koch, RHP Jason Roenicke, RHP David Slovak, LHP Hunter Moody, 1B Kevin Denis-Fortier, 2B Kyle Gilligan

We are down to one Roenicke now.  A couple of Canadians get the boot too.

Denoit - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:18 PM EST (#208539) #
Dogers are reportedly interested in Halladay according to mlbtraderumors.com. (Obviously there are alot of teams interested) I just find them to be a perfect fit. They lack a legitmate ace, and have the prospects to do the deal. Billingsley is reported as the centerpiece and if they could also pry DeJesus Jr away I'd be all over it.
John Northey - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:26 PM EST (#208540) #
Interesting rumour.  Billingsley is at 3+ years of service so arbitration and 3 years of time before free agency.  ERA+ of just 98 last year but 119 lifetime over 634 IP.  8.2K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 to go with a 0.8 HR rate.  Solid skill set, wildness needs to be brought under control.  Ivan DeJesus doesn't seem too impressive to me offhand (good OPS in 2008, but 23 now coming off injuries).  I'd want something different for Halladay myself.
PeterG - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:39 PM EST (#208541) #
I would be very interested in DeJesus. That is the kind of risk that needs to be taken. Another prospect would need to come along with him because of that risk, hopefully an additional position player.
Denoit - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:42 PM EST (#208542) #

Agreed there is some issue with the injury, but a middle infeilder who OPS .843 as 21 year old in AA has to open your eyes a bit. He led the league in OBP that year and was 5th in batting average.  He will probably return to AA to start the year and if all goes well could be fighting for a job in 2011. He has leadoff hitter written all over him. His injury was a broken leg, and obviously you would have to get some medical information before pulling the trigger but he is very interesting to me. The only question would be is if he could stick at SS as he has some defensive issues to be worked out.

Ryan Day - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 01:53 PM EST (#208543) #
I don't think it's a question of whether Paxton (or the others) was worth $X, it's that they drafted him and then didn't sign him. Did they not know what he wanted? Did they think Boras was bluffing? Those would both be pretty stupid, and I don't think that fits Ricciardi's history. Though there is this article suggest Beeston may have been somewhat naive in his negotiation - "c'mon, play for Canada" is not going to work with Boras)

So I agree with Mike's theory that someone in ownership changed their mind about something, whether it was a pure $$ decision or based more on not wanting to annoy the commissioner's office.
FisherCat - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 02:43 PM EST (#208547) #

Anyone know why Brad Emaus had to cut his AFL season short?  (albeit by less than 3 games).  Also noteworthy is he played 1B in his last game.

The first thing I thought when I saw a "T" next to his name in the AFL stats line was that he was traded...but any insight to whether there was an injury or not, would be interesting.

MatO - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 02:47 PM EST (#208548) #
They seemed to have no problem in going over slot for Marasnick and Hobson, so money or the commissioner's office doesn't make sense to me.  My theory is that they decided sometime after the draft that the system was too pitching heavy if they signed Paxton and Eliopoulos so they playedplay hardball with them.  They signed the hitters that were drafted and decided to take the picks in the 2010 draft in order to draft positional players instead.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 03:30 PM EST (#208551) #
I guess that's possible, MatO, as part of a devolution of authority away from Ricciardi. Whatever it was, it doesn't fit within any management style likely to lead to long-term success. 

Incidentally, what would the harm be in Anthopoulos indicating that the club is taking steps to ensure an organization balanced as between position players and pitchers, if for no other reason to signal a break with the former regime?

Chuck - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 03:53 PM EST (#208554) #

Incidentally, what would the harm be in Anthopoulos indicating that the club is taking steps to ensure an organization balanced as between position players and pitchers, if for no other reason to signal a break with the former regime?

You get the sense that given his young age and his association with (loyalty to?) the past administration that he's going to tread very lightly where the former regime is concerned. Were he somebody experienced who was parachuted into the organization, he might speak more boldly.

GM-speak always requires a babel fish. (Is it any coincidence that 42 is the number that baseball retired?)

 

Ryan Day - Thursday, November 19 2009 @ 05:33 PM EST (#208556) #
There really isn't a break with the old regime. Anthopoulos and Lacava were both Ricciardi's people, as are likely still a fair number of people in the organization. Cito was hired by Ricciardi, and promoted/extended by Beeston, who also promoted Anthopoulos. Rogers is still running the team, and the only change in their philosophy is that they seem to have gotten even more fickle.

The Jays have shuffled the deck a bit, but I have a hard time believing the team will be run in a significantly different fashion.

bball12 - Saturday, November 21 2009 @ 06:33 PM EST (#208594) #
After looking at Diamond Futures Top 15 - I think it would be a reasonable suggestion that they change their name to Zirconium Futures.



Gerry - Saturday, November 21 2009 @ 08:34 PM EST (#208596) #

The Phoenix Desert Dogs played in the final of the AFL today.  The Desert Dogs are home to most of the Blue Jays playing in the AFL, David Cooper played for Mesa.

In the final Reidier Gonzlaez was the only Jay to play in the final, he pitched a three up, three down inning.  Loewen, Jimenez or Mastroianni didn't play, neither did Robert Ray pitch.  And that just sums up the most disappointing minor league season in many years.

Prospect Ranking - Diamond Futures | 36 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.