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This Blue Jay was on the verge of going back to the team he began his major league career with.  He's the subject of our POTD.

Lyle Overbay bats against the Twins at the Rogers Centre September 7th.

A proposed deal that would have sent first baseman Lyle Overbay to Arizona for catcher Chris Snyder is apparently not going to happen due to Snyder's back woes.  It would just be too confusing with Travis Snider already here and who needs the aggravation.  :D

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John Northey - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:47 PM EST (#208234) #
Interesting that Overbay is still here.  Glad that AA is smarter than Gord Ash.

Of note: ML free agent rankings.  Barajas just in the B group, Scutaro an A.  B's are good as they cost nothing but cash for the team signing them, A's cost a first round pick (both provide a sandwich pick).

Noteworthy B's: Erik Bedard,Adrian Beltre,Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, Nick Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez and so on.
Gwyn - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 06:35 PM EST (#208238) #
Another Overbay rumour, this one from Rosenthal's live winter meeting blog at foxsports.com:

"Bradley to the Blue Jays. First baseman Lyle Overbay to the Mets. Second baseman Luis Castillo to the Cubs."
Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 06:56 PM EST (#208240) #
An interesting idea but I have to assume the Jays are getting some financial relief for Bradley; I don't see it taking more than eating $2 million on Overbay's contract to move him for something...Bradley on the other hand...
Schad - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 08:31 PM EST (#208251) #
That would be a very curious move, and would seem to go against AA's stated philosophy of only adding salary if doing so makes the team capable of competing. It would be interesting from the perspective of our outfield composition, though...Bradley is no great shakes in CF, but he's significantly better than Wells (who isn't?), and the fact that the Jays are considering such a move suggests that they are either serious about moving Lind to 1B, or believe that Dopirak can play the position next year.
Chuck - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:07 PM EST (#208253) #
Bradley is no great shakes in CF

Center field? Shirley, you jest.
John Northey - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 10:35 PM EST (#208258) #
Bradley has done decently in RF in the past but is mainly a DH I suspect. Putting him in RF, Snider in LF, Lind DH/1B/LF (sometimes) might make sense. He is at $9 and $12 for the next two years vs Overbay's $7 next year. Fangraphs has Bradley as being worth $4.7 mil last year, $20 in '08, $9.9 in '07, ... basically since 2003 he has been $7+ mil a year except for last season.

Bradley is listed by Bill James for 2010 as likely to hit 276/384/450. Overbay is listed at 267/359/443. If those numbers held up (crossing leagues and all) then if you figure the defense is a wash (Bradley>Snider>Lind while Overbay>Lind or other replacement) then Bradley would be an improvement. Hrm. An interesting idea this one, especially if the Cubs eat some salary.
Schad - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 12:19 AM EST (#208261) #
Center field? Shirley, you jest.

Heh, Wells was the worst defensive CF in baseball this year according to Totalzone, and the third-worst player overall. Much like Wells, Bradley was a good defensive CF at one point before injuries slowed him down; Bradley would be a butcher as well, but the bar for besting Wells is exceedingly low.
TamRa - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 01:10 AM EST (#208262) #
Overbay to the Mets...makes sense...Castillo to some one else...makes sense...BRADLEY to the Jays?

Heck no! Not if we're not trying to throw together a 2010 contender especially.

I'd just send O'bay over to the Mets for prospects and let them figure out Castillo on there own.


jgadfly - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 01:25 AM EST (#208263) #
Did Halladay ever agree to the Ranger trade ?  Flipping Bradley with RH and cash may bring some young talent that could fill a lot of holes  ...
Ron - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 02:01 AM EST (#208264) #
Did Halladay ever agree to the Ranger trade ?

Jon Heyman said Doc had no interest in going to the Rangers (according to Heyman the Rangers offered a package of players including Justin Smoak) while JP said this wasn't the case. One of these guys is a liar.
Chuck - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 06:30 AM EST (#208265) #

Much like Wells, Bradley was a good defensive CF at one point before injuries slowed him down; Bradley would be a butcher as well, but the bar for besting Wells is exceedingly low.

I don't disagree that Wells is miscast as a center fielder, but I just don't see a 32-year old Milton Bradley being the one to supplant him, both for reasons of pragmatism and optics. I think any AL team that lands Bradley will tuck him away at DH for sake keeping.

I imagine that Wells' eventual replacement, whoever that is, is going to be speedy fly catcher whom all can see is the logical choice for center field. I don't think his replacement is going to be someone only incrementally better. Hell, the seemingly obvious Wells-Rios flip-flop was a move that could have been made for free and it, apparently, never got serious consideration.

FranklyScarlet - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 06:47 AM EST (#208267) #
Thomas - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 09:54 AM EST (#208268) #
Not that I expected them to view it any differently (and not that Jays fans view it any differently), but it's always refreshing to hear MLB General Managers refer to Wells as "the most difficult player to trade in the major leagues" and that his contract may be "the worst in baseball history."
Forkball - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 10:56 AM EST (#208269) #
One of these guys is a liar

No, at least one of these guys is a liar (or is misled).  Heyman writes a lot of stuff that doesn't smell right (like what he said Boston offered for Halladay).

Olney's blog today said that "there is no chance the Cubs and Blue Jays will make a deal involving Milton Bradley" (probably unless they were inclined to take Wells).
Ducey - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 12:15 PM EST (#208273) #

One of these guys is a liar

"Its not a lie if you know the truth" - JP Riccardi

Chuck - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 01:00 PM EST (#208275) #
"Jerry, just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it."
-- George Costanza (on how to effectively sell an untruth)
Ron - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 01:55 PM EST (#208277) #
No, at least one of these guys is a liar (or is misled).  Heyman writes a lot of stuff that doesn't smell right (like what he said Boston offered for Halladay).

JP and Theo denied that Red Sox offer ever happened but Heyman still stands by that report. This is a case where we will probably never know who was telling the truth and who wasn't.
Dewey - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 03:43 PM EST (#208282) #

I'm reminded of a New Yorker cartoon from a few months back. Two 'wise men' or 'guru' figures meet on a path. Each is bearded of course, dressed in the usual cartoon garb of robes and sandals and carrying a staff. They're going in opposite directions, and behind them is a sign-post with “Truth” written on it. The one coming from the direction in which the sign-post is pointing says to the other, “Gimme me a dollar. Save you a trip.”

Magpie - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 09:51 PM EST (#208291) #
"the worst in baseball history."

I dunno. It's not like they signed a starting pitcher coming off a 20-7 season to a 10 year contract only to see him completely blow out his arm after one season.
Chuck - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 10:20 PM EST (#208292) #
Darren Dreifort's 5/55 was a beaut as well.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 10:52 PM EST (#208293) #

Oooohh ... a Wayne Garland reference! I was a lad of 10 living in Ohio at the time. Mr. Unkle Magpie's stories are such memory-bringers!

Remember the part about the contract being worth a ludicour $2 million? Um, that was over the course of the contract, or $200K a season. Is that even the minimum salary for rookies now?

timpinder - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 11:27 PM EST (#208294) #

At the time Wells signed his contract I didn't think it was that bad, even though I was hoping Wells would be traded for a young pitcher (that the Jays needed at the time) and a shortstop.  I also liked that Wells would have to accept a slight pay-cut if he picked up the 3-year player option.   Now I'll admit that Wells' contract is bad.  However, I don't think it's that terrible.  Perhaps I'm naive, but I attribute his ridiculously poor offensive performance to his wrist injury.  I still believe that Wells could be an above average RF or passable defensive CF with above average offense.  I would bet that he hits somewhere around .295/.350/.500 over the next couple of years.  In my opinion he'll never come close to being worth what he's getting paid, but I still think he could be an above average player over the next few years if he's moved to the corner outfield.

timpinder - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 11:31 PM EST (#208295) #
On second thought, maybe a little closer to an average of .285/.340/.490 over the next few years, but still not as terrible as he was last year.
Jays2010 - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 11:50 PM EST (#208296) #
Not that Wells is going to be put in RF in 2010 (at least I think it is unlikely)...but I predict if Wells is a RF in 2010, he will be a more valuable player (combining offense and defense) than Jason Bay . And Bay is probably getting, at the least, 4 years and $60 million. I think Wells will have a good enough year to make himself tradable with the Jays eating maybe 25-35% of the contract. At least I am hoping for all of this...
ayjackson - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 09:00 AM EST (#208298) #
One thing to remember about Vernon is that in his career to date, he has been worth about $45m more than he has been paid.  If the Jays are still ahead in that regard by the end of the contract, it will be a moral victory.
Chuck - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 09:20 AM EST (#208300) #

One thing to remember about Vernon is that in his career to date, he has been worth about $45m more than he has been paid

This is not entirely true. FanGraphs' valuations are based on value in the free market. Vernon Wells was not a free agent for the first six years of his career. One reason that players make so much money in years 7 and beyond is specifically because the rules of the game allow their salaries to be suppressed during years 1 to 6. This frees up owner money for the free agents (since they are "underpaying" their 1-6ers) and artificially props up demand for those handful of free agents, thereby overinflating their salaries.

Were all players free agents from the very start of their careers, the shape of ownership spending would be very different. Wells certainly would have been paid more than he was during seasons 1-6, but his big contract extension would have been for considerably less money. Owners would be spending the same amount of money overall, but robbing Peter to pay Paul. In this case Peter is Wells 7+ and Paul is Wells 1-6.

ayjackson - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 10:56 AM EST (#208306) #

Thanks for the correction on the oversight, Chuck, but I'm clinging (desperately) to the moral victory barometer!

John Northey - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 12:42 PM EST (#208311) #
Looking at FanGraphs and at Cot's Contracts you quickly see that the Jays really timed Rios nearly perfectly in a financial sense.  From signing as a drafted player to the start of 2009 he made $7.455 million, then the Jays paid about 1/2 of his $5.9 mil salary last year before dumping him.  The White Sox get to pay him $59.7 million plus 1/2 of last year's pay minimum (add $12.5 if they keep him for 2015).  So the Jays paid around $10 million for $69.3 million of value (via FanGraphs) while the White Sox have to pay over $60 million for (so far) negative $4.5 million of 'value'.

Now, if only JP traded him a year and 1/2 earlier for Lincecum... sigh.
ayjackson - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 02:05 PM EST (#208319) #

It sounds like AA is indifferent toward trading within the division, which makes sense (make your rivals stronger now and weaker in the long term).  Here's a shopping list courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 02:43 PM EST (#208323) #
Austin Jackson is the Yankees' 9th best prospect, according to the THT link  If so, they'd probably take a middle reliever for him. :)

I would trade with the enemy on those terms.

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