It's easier than you might think.
Step 1: Do Nothing
The Jays won 75 games last year, but Pythagoras suggests they should have won 83 (actually, 83.5 to be more precise). The only significant non-random factor that affects a team's deviation from its Pythagorean record is the strength of its late-inning relievers. While the Jays don't have an elite closer like Rivera, Papelbon or Nathan, the tandem of Jason Frasor and Scott Downs was great last year, and between those guys, Brandon League (who was actually really good in 2009 - check out his peripherals) and the huge stable of other relievers the Jays have, I'm confident they can cobble together a league-average back end. It only needs to be league average to be expected to perform according to Pythagoras, and it very well could be above average, in which case the Jays could be reasonably expected to out-perform their Pythagorean expectation.
That might be beyond the talents of our faithful manager, though. We'll stick with 83 wins (83.5 to be more precise) for now.
Step 2: Sign Mike Cameron
Milwaukee recently acquired a new center fielder, so Cameron looks to be superfluous. Before I get into the feasibility of the Jays signing him, you're probably wondering "how the $#&@ is Mike Cameron going to add 5 wins??!?!?! (4.5 to be more precise!!?!??!)"
Well, if you believe in numbers, specifically the value statistics from Fangraphs, it's certainly possible. Let's look at said numbers.
Mike Cameron was worth 9.8 runs with the bat and 10.0 with the glove last year. That is excellent value from a center fielder (4th most in the majors in 2009). In fact, it's the best value Cameron has provided in the 8 years of data Fangraphs has. Given that Cameron will turn 37 before the 2010 season begins, this should make you a little wary. However, it should be noted that his 2009 line was a near-duplicate of his 2008 performance, on both offense and defense, and none of his luck-indicators such as HR/FB, BABIP or batted ball type scream fluke. But for our back-of the envelope 2010 projection let's knock him down to +8 runs on each aspect of the game just for posterity.
Vernon Wells, on the other hand, was not one of the most valuable center fielders in 2009. Actually, as I'm sure you all know, that's quite an understatement - he was, in fact, the 2nd least valuable. He was worth -8.1 runs with the bat and -18.2 with the glove last year.
The other player we need to consider is the only one who managed to eclipse Wells' suckitude on the CF value leaderboard - Alex Rios. Rios' 2009 stats in his time with the Jays: 0.6 runs on offense, -3.3 on defense.
Lastly, the rest of the Jays' right fielders - Joe Inglett and Travis Snider both managed to accumulate about -2 runs on defense in very small sample sizes, while Jose Bautista was really good in his limited time. Overall, Jays' RFs were -3.4 last year.
Okay, time for some math. (I just realized I failed to mention that in this scenario, Cameron is taking over center while Wells shifts to right. But you already knew that.) Replacing Wells' defense with Cameron's nets about 26 extra runs. Replacing Rios' offense with Cameron's is another 8 runs. I'm going to take the liberty of assuming that Wells' offense will bounce back a little bit - let's be conservative and say he's just going to be a league average hitter. There's 8 more runs. The last thing is Wells' defense in RF - for what it's worth, Fangraphs says his arm was slightly above average last year, and his terrible UZR numbers were based primarily on his rapidly deteriorating range, so maybe right field, where a good arm is perhaps more important relative to range, would suit Wells. Anyway, let's say Wells would duplicate that -3.4 figure.
That brings us to 42 more runs for the 2010 club. I don't know the exact formula for converting runs to wins, but the Fangraphs value numbers suggest it's around 10:1. So, 42 more runs = 4.2 wins, and with some convenient rounding, that brings us up to 88 wins (87.7 to be more precise!).
Can we sign Mike Cameron?
Before 2008, Cameron got a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, with a $10 mil club option. Despite his excellent performance over the last 2 years, he's into his late thirties, so I doubt it would take much more than that, especially since so much of his value is tied up in defense.
Large Caveat: of course, this analysis is in a vacuum. I've been assuming that the performance of the rest of the club stays the same from 2009, and that might be unreasonable, especially given the great seasons from Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro and Ricky Romero.
Also: 88 wins sounds nice, but in the AL East, it's not enough. Is there any point to shooting for 88 wins? If you ask me, if the Jays want to try to contend in 2010, this is a move they should try to make, but they would need to make a couple others as well (today's rumour of Chris Snyder for Lyle Overbay might be a good start, though the loss of defense at first base could make it a wash. Further analysis pending)
Anyway, what do you think, Bauxites? Would you sign Cameron? Are there other CF options out there that interest you? (Here's a list of free agent center fielders from MLB Trade Rumors.) Or are you on the complete opposite side of the fence - blow it up and contend in 2015?
Step 1: Do Nothing
The Jays won 75 games last year, but Pythagoras suggests they should have won 83 (actually, 83.5 to be more precise). The only significant non-random factor that affects a team's deviation from its Pythagorean record is the strength of its late-inning relievers. While the Jays don't have an elite closer like Rivera, Papelbon or Nathan, the tandem of Jason Frasor and Scott Downs was great last year, and between those guys, Brandon League (who was actually really good in 2009 - check out his peripherals) and the huge stable of other relievers the Jays have, I'm confident they can cobble together a league-average back end. It only needs to be league average to be expected to perform according to Pythagoras, and it very well could be above average, in which case the Jays could be reasonably expected to out-perform their Pythagorean expectation.
That might be beyond the talents of our faithful manager, though. We'll stick with 83 wins (83.5 to be more precise) for now.
Step 2: Sign Mike Cameron
Milwaukee recently acquired a new center fielder, so Cameron looks to be superfluous. Before I get into the feasibility of the Jays signing him, you're probably wondering "how the $#&@ is Mike Cameron going to add 5 wins??!?!?! (4.5 to be more precise!!?!??!)"
Well, if you believe in numbers, specifically the value statistics from Fangraphs, it's certainly possible. Let's look at said numbers.
Mike Cameron was worth 9.8 runs with the bat and 10.0 with the glove last year. That is excellent value from a center fielder (4th most in the majors in 2009). In fact, it's the best value Cameron has provided in the 8 years of data Fangraphs has. Given that Cameron will turn 37 before the 2010 season begins, this should make you a little wary. However, it should be noted that his 2009 line was a near-duplicate of his 2008 performance, on both offense and defense, and none of his luck-indicators such as HR/FB, BABIP or batted ball type scream fluke. But for our back-of the envelope 2010 projection let's knock him down to +8 runs on each aspect of the game just for posterity.
Vernon Wells, on the other hand, was not one of the most valuable center fielders in 2009. Actually, as I'm sure you all know, that's quite an understatement - he was, in fact, the 2nd least valuable. He was worth -8.1 runs with the bat and -18.2 with the glove last year.
The other player we need to consider is the only one who managed to eclipse Wells' suckitude on the CF value leaderboard - Alex Rios. Rios' 2009 stats in his time with the Jays: 0.6 runs on offense, -3.3 on defense.
Lastly, the rest of the Jays' right fielders - Joe Inglett and Travis Snider both managed to accumulate about -2 runs on defense in very small sample sizes, while Jose Bautista was really good in his limited time. Overall, Jays' RFs were -3.4 last year.
Okay, time for some math. (I just realized I failed to mention that in this scenario, Cameron is taking over center while Wells shifts to right. But you already knew that.) Replacing Wells' defense with Cameron's nets about 26 extra runs. Replacing Rios' offense with Cameron's is another 8 runs. I'm going to take the liberty of assuming that Wells' offense will bounce back a little bit - let's be conservative and say he's just going to be a league average hitter. There's 8 more runs. The last thing is Wells' defense in RF - for what it's worth, Fangraphs says his arm was slightly above average last year, and his terrible UZR numbers were based primarily on his rapidly deteriorating range, so maybe right field, where a good arm is perhaps more important relative to range, would suit Wells. Anyway, let's say Wells would duplicate that -3.4 figure.
That brings us to 42 more runs for the 2010 club. I don't know the exact formula for converting runs to wins, but the Fangraphs value numbers suggest it's around 10:1. So, 42 more runs = 4.2 wins, and with some convenient rounding, that brings us up to 88 wins (87.7 to be more precise!).
Can we sign Mike Cameron?
Before 2008, Cameron got a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, with a $10 mil club option. Despite his excellent performance over the last 2 years, he's into his late thirties, so I doubt it would take much more than that, especially since so much of his value is tied up in defense.
Large Caveat: of course, this analysis is in a vacuum. I've been assuming that the performance of the rest of the club stays the same from 2009, and that might be unreasonable, especially given the great seasons from Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro and Ricky Romero.
Also: 88 wins sounds nice, but in the AL East, it's not enough. Is there any point to shooting for 88 wins? If you ask me, if the Jays want to try to contend in 2010, this is a move they should try to make, but they would need to make a couple others as well (today's rumour of Chris Snyder for Lyle Overbay might be a good start, though the loss of defense at first base could make it a wash. Further analysis pending)
Anyway, what do you think, Bauxites? Would you sign Cameron? Are there other CF options out there that interest you? (Here's a list of free agent center fielders from MLB Trade Rumors.) Or are you on the complete opposite side of the fence - blow it up and contend in 2015?
