Will the AL East become a league where the Jays consider it a victory if they finish third?

While finishing 3rd has now become a legitimate challenge due to TB's emergence, I don't think the fans will respond to the moral victory of finishing only behind New York and Boston. They didn't when doing so was easy and they won't much care now that it's more difficult.

Fans don't care about context, just the bottom line. To many, the payroll disparity issue is "just an excuse". That's the burden the next GM will be stuck with.

Three words: HARD SALARY CAP

A whole bunch of words: why on earth would the union ever agree to such a thing?

I agree.

That interview with the Canadian Press was ridiculous. If the camel's back wasn't broken before it is now.

"In the Blue Jays organization - if you dont play well - and you are an early rounder - you dont really care all that much - because you will probably be promoted the next year anyway."

I don't know if this is 100% correct, all of the Dunedin kids will be repeating their level next year including first rounder selection Kevin Ahrens, JP said prior to Arencibia going for his kidney surgery that Arencibia didn't play well enough for a sept call up, David Cooper will likely be in AA again next year.

But it's worth recalling this: the norm in the history of the American League is for the Yankees to win everything. They won regularly in the Babe Ruth era, in the Joe DiMaggio era, and in the Mickey Mantle era.

And at the outset of the free agent era, also The Reggie Jackson era. And in the first half of the Derek Jeter era.

But the tide has turned, with brief interruptions of success, in the past 45 years. Consider; from 1964 -- 13 years of no titles, then a run of success with four AL pennants and two titles in six years from 1976-81; then 15 years of no titles followed by six AL pennants and four titles in eight years from 1996-2003; nothing for the past five years.

Relative to other teams, that is wildly successful, true. Relative to Yankee dynasties past, that's ... erratic. Just for example elsewhere, the Reds have one title in the last 33 years and none in 19; the Rangers have none, in what is now 37 years. Do we really need to mention the Indians and Cubs?

So the Jays, now at 17 years without a title, are really quite middle-of-the-road in MLB.

As a long time JP apologist even I have had to resign myself to the fact that he probably has to go fairly soon (though I still would be okay with him finishing out his contract). Not because he has done a poor job - but because I see little upside in keeping him at this point, espescially when so much of the fanbase seems to hate him with a passion.

However, if I were a national league team - pretty much any one of them - I would gladly have JP as my GM. From 2006 when the Jays were bumped into the middle of the pack in payroll, he has pretty much had a team that should compete as a top 10 team in baseball every year (with a balanced schedule of course). And he has clearly improved "on the job". But I don't think there is any way to suggest he can actually bring this team back to contention (even if he has developed those skills...nobody notices).

I pretty much stopped paying attention to the Jays this year once Rios was dumped...but I'd like to suggest possibly trading Ricky Romero (depending on the return). I don't see him as any better than Zep or Cecil (though he looks like a mid-rotation starter I suppose) and this franchise is in desperate need of position players, moreso than 2/3 starters who will eventually need TJ surgery. So how about Ricky Romero for Carlos Gonzalez. Not sure who is worth more now (though it should be noted that 250 AB's ago Gonzalez was merely a piece in the Holliday deal and young left-handed pitchers are presumably worth more than position players). The Rockies don't need a CF and we need to move our $126 mill CF to a corner. The organization doesn't have an ace after Doc anyway - and I am more than satisfied to fill the 2-5 spots with Zep/Cecil/Marcum/Richmond/Stewart etc...

Here's to an interesting off-season.

Lind and Hill are great. Romero will always drive me crazy due to the circumstances surrounding him. It keeps me up at night knowing we passed on Tulowitzki.

Now Magpie, the poster was probably talking about Snider and Cecil. Those two never did anything to deserve their promotions.

Oops!

Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 27 2009 @ 03:09 AM EDT (#206507) #

Not if you're the Yankees or the Red Sox. No shortage of mistakes, no shortage of bad trades. No problem.

To be fair, neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees had Payroll restrictions, while trying to buy their Home Field.  They didn't restrict draft picks to the total exclusion of High School Players.  They didn't follow the blind adherence to the Slot Toronto did.  There are more problems inherrent to Toronto than a sound Management Structure and an extra $50.0 M - $125.0 M in cash. That should cover almost anything.

At least someone is making less doom and gloom suggestions as to the off-season.  Take a good look: http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/09/26/its-not-a-rebuild-its-a-remodel/   He's right about one thing, we can trade a lot of top value and still be strong in the minors, and powerful on the big league roster.

One good thing about Rogers - they love a write-off.  (see Thomas, Frank and Ryan, BJ)

They seem a little tempermental in their support for the Blue Jays, but at least money has been there at times.  In fact, the evidence is that it has always been there (according to Beeston).  The only reason it wasn't there this year, presumably, is that Beeston didn't request it - asked them to sit on it.  Rogers plays the role of the bad guy, but evidence is foggy as to who slapped the handcuffs on JP.  If you beleive Beeston, it's him.

Thought this article was kind of interesting re: artificial turf.

Tampa Bay is examining possible sites for a new ballpark, which would have grass. While the Rays for now have to play on artificial turf under the last fixed dome in the major leagues, the Blue Jays could put in grass because their roof retracts.

"We could do it, but it would probably be a really, really expensive, proposition for us," general manager J.P. Ricciardi said. "It's been a thought, but I just don't think it makes sense for us financially."

Yeah, you've only had the last two third basemen ask for trades partially due to the surface they play on, a 126 million dollar centerfielder who's become one of the worst defensive centerfielders in baseball and no stranger to injury, and a left fielder with a thick build who's knees will surely have troubles playing on artificial turf for at least the next 5+ years, and that's not financially viable?

Unless it costs a billion dollars to have real grass, I don't see how protecting 90+ million dollars worth of athletes per year isn't financially viable.

I would also love to get my hands on a list of how many players specifically won't come to Toronto because of the artificial turf.

A decently high home run total in a bandbox a few years ago is the only thing that you could even consider hanging your hat on.

It was last year that he hit 26 homeruns. The home/road split was 15/11.

His OPS+'s the last three years (before this one) have been 108, 101, 106.

as the stat is already weighted against league average you'd have to make the case that the NL central pitchers are significantly worse than the pitchers in other divisions.

I don't really have the time or desire to build the statistical case that the NL Central is a weak division but I've seen enough things like Sabathia and Holliday go berzerk in the division to know it's not the AL East.  

Do we really need to compare the pitching staffs from New York, Boston and Tampa versus Houston, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh?  Houston has maybe two pitchers that could crack the Yankees top 10.  LaTroy Hawkins got destroyed in this division and he's Houston's top set up man.  The Brewers after Gallardo have Looper, Suppan, Parra and Bush.  Baltimore is better then that today.  Russ Ohlendorf is the Pirates' third starter.  Heck, half of Pittsburgh's staff is Yankee rejects: Ohlendorf, McCutchen, Karstens, Claggett.   Matt Capps would need a 5 run lead and 2 outs in the 9th to close out games in the AL East. 

The American League dominates the National League.  The American League East dominates the AL Central and AL West.  How can you not discount what Encarnacion did in Cincinnati?

I'd just like to point out that Rolen's 2008 OPS+ was 107. An OPS+ in the 105-110 range is more than adequate for 3B.

Encarnacion is not going to have a 105-110 OPS+ in the AL. 

Encarnacion can be had on the cheap and has upside.

Isn't it strange then that an even poorer team traded him?

His glove hasn't seemed as nearly as bad as advertised.

I think it's been worse.  4 years of consistently horrible metrics I guess we should throw out?

He's exactly the sort of player the franchise needs

Sure, if the goal is to be in 75 win purgatory from now til eternity.

then EE can be easily traded precisely because he's relatively cheap and has upside.

I must really be misreading the market on players who don't hit, can't field and make 4 million dollars.  If he has so much upside why was he better when he was 23 then he was when he was 25?   Aren't players with upside supposed to improve and not regress?

I'm sure St. Louis will be crushed to find out that Albert Pujols never had any upside, what with him being better at 23 than at 25. Ditto Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera.

Do you really think there are that many players who follow a smooth development path and never regress even a tiny little bit (which would be a reasonable assessment of the difference between Encarnacion's 06 and 08)?

This is a serious argument?  It's a bit different when you are A: regressing from a 5th place finish in the MVP voting when you are 23 (Mauer, Cabrera finished 6th) and B: Not putting up an OPS+ below 90 in your age 26 season.  If the excuse is he stinks this year because he's hurt, then how does that increase his trade value or the chances he's better next year. 

Encarnacion will probably be here next year because there are so many other things that need to get done that it's about the 5th priority.  Next year when everyone is wondering why the young pitchers are struggling, it's because of decisions like Encarnacion as the everyday third baseman.

Instead of just criticizing other people's responses I'd like you to suggest a course of action for once.

I'm sorry that Wilner's trade suggestions are ridiculous.  Today he updated his proposal to Romero instead of Purcey, it's still a joke.   

I've given my course of action probably at least a dozen times:

The general manager and the field manager need to go next Monday morning. 

The present (2010) is a completely lost cause and any move that pretends that it isn't is a waste.  They have already held onto Halladay too long, and the only way to ever fix this organization is through the draft and amature free agents and we know how that went this year.

If you can get value for Frasor, Downs or Overbay you take it and don't look back.   I don't really see any other veterans that would bring anything back.

I've GOT to develop Cecil, Zep, Romero and whatever Halladay brings back.  Wells can't play center and Encarnacion can't play third, I've got to have a team that can play defense.  The pitching staff is not good enough nor deep enough to have a poor defense behind them.  I've already got a problem with Lind/Snider because you've got to put one of them in a corner OF spot and that isn't ideal.  Having a good defense is my best chance of building trade value in the only place I might end up having a surplus of talent and that's the pitching staff.

I offer Scutaro arbitration but know that he isn't going to accept.  I take the picks, I see no way he can live up to the next contract and even if he has this year 2 or 3 more times, it's not getting me to the playoffs.  I understand I'm going to have scrapheap catchers and a scrapheap SS, but it's better then paying Scutaro as he turns back into a pumpkin.

I know I'm going to lose a lot of games in 2010, 2011 and 2012.  I'd rather lose 95 for those years and at least have a plan to build towards instead of multiple seasons like this one where you lose 86 games and accomplish nothing for the near term or the long term.

If Encarnacion is the worst defensive player in the league and potentially has a league average bat, how is he a league average player? 

As for evidence.... how about the Blue Jays so far this year.  Using July 31st a cutoff as when the Rolen trade and Rios claim roughly went down.. the Jays were giving up 4.4 runs a game until that point.  It's 5.1 since.

Granted there is a lot of other noise in those numbers, but not having your two best defensive players has to be a big part of 0.7 runs a game.

Jim, you're actually calling that a PLAN?   To sum up:  you would dump any player who can be traded, accept 95 losses per year for the next three years, and "develop" three young pitchers -- who are already being developed quite nicely by the current management.  How does that constitute a "plan" or a "course of action" in any logical sense of the word?  Even when you are challenged to present a plan, all you can do is offer more doom and gloom.  It's no wonder that people are losing patience with your sweepingly defeatist comments.

You talk vaguely of "building trade value" in your pitchers -- but it's the current Jays management that has already done that, quite impressively, despite all your sniping.  The Jays already have a very deep collection of pitchers who can be used for trading value in the next one or two seasons.

Your only other specific "course of action", as far as I can discern, is to collect draft picks.  The Jays have actually done that in the past couple of seasons, and then were sabotaged by their cheapskate owners who failed to provide the money to sign them.  In this aspect of your "plan", you are simply repeating the obvious strategy -- collecting draft picks -- that almost every non-contending ball club has followed for decades.   The point is this:  if you're going to snidely dismiss the Jays as a bunch of dunces and dunderheads, we'd like to see the brilliant options that you've devised that the Jays have never thought about.  Failing that, it's just vague negativity.

Jim, you're actually calling that a PLAN? 

It's the only actual plan that I've seen anyone post on this website that can be executed without a huge increase in the payroll.   If you want to turn a blind eye to the reality of the situation this baseball team is in, why don't you blow us away with Wilner like ideas. 

Maybe you guys aren't paying attention, but this team besides Halladay has a team ERA+ of 89.  I know everyone here thinks this is a great pitching staff and is filled with a ton of great prospects, but the numbers don't reflect that. 

Romero probably has good value, but he's been giving some back in the second half of the season.  Rzepcynski had 11 good starts.  Who else could they possibly turn into valuable assets right now?  Cecil's year was close to disasterous.  Marcum and McGowan won't bring anyone back until they can prove they are healthy.  Stewart is proabably their most valuable arm now in the high minors, and he had to be combined with 2 other players to bring back a guy who makes $11 million next year at the deadline. 

The rest of the baseball world can see that the Jays need a total rebuild, so you can stop pretending like my opinion is an outlier just because I'm not going to cling to the notion that this is a team that has any chance in the world of catching the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa anytime soon.

The offense. 

Your outfield is going to be Lind/Wells/Snider and you think that your pitchers are going to blossom?  Maybe once the Jays get finished petitioning for realignment and more playoff spots they can convince the AL to play with 3 DHs.

I like that you think Scutaro's career might be over and in the same post you hit him leadoff.

seasons like this one where you lose 86 games

There goes Jim with his starry-eyed optimism again.  He's predicting a 4-2 road trip to end the season!  Why don't you take off your rose-coloured glasses every once in a while, ya big homer?

Yes, you can probably develop pitchers with a bad defense.  Seems like you are making it tougher on yourself since:

A.  Giving away outs forces them to throw more pitches and leads to more pitches thrown per inning

B.  Could potentially cause them to lose confidence

C.  Might make them focus on striking hitters out which causes them to struggle

It's not anything that can probably be proven, but it seems pretty sensible to me that if you've got young pitchers it's better to actively try and help them by putting a good defense behind them. 

If EE had an .800 OPS I guess he wouldn't be a total disaster, I just don't see that happening in the AL East leaving the Great American Band Box.  With his defense I think he'd have to get to 115-120 OPS+ to truly be an average player.  Toronto plays pretty neutral so I think that is about .830.  I do get the feeling I value defense much more highly then most here, and I think that baseball in general is moving towards that direction.  Riccardi seemed to be ahead of the curve at one point in valuing defense and now they have seemed to go in the other direction.

Encarnacion will probably be here so I guess we'll find out.  I'd prefer to move him and put the money elsewhere but it's not like it's going to make a huge difference one way or the other.

Without a statistical case showing that Encarnacion his his 26 HR against the weaker division, you've got nothing. You cite a bunch of anecdotal evidence that means absolutely nothing. The NL has just as many stars as the AL. Using Pittsburg is no argument, what about KC? Is that an argument that Cabrera, Maurer and Morneau aren't a good hitters and ought to have their numbers discounted?

Wow.  You really don't think the American League is stronger then the National League?  You really don't think that the American League East is better then the Central?

I'm not really in the mood to dig up the links that show the statistical proof that the AL is better then the NL, but it's so distinct and obvious that I can't even believe someone would argue against it. 

American League baseball is much better then National League baseball at this point in time.   You have to take that into account when projecting players between the leagues.  The unbalanced schedule makes it very important.  You can't seriously try to argue that playing 40% of your games in the NL Central wouldn't be an advantage versus playing 40% of your games against the AL East. 

Every legitimate projection model from ZIPS to PECOTA contain corrections for the level of play between the AL and NL. 

Nice leap though.  Because I said you have to discount someone's National League's numbers when they change leagues that means I don't think Mauer and Mourneau are good hitters.  That's exactly what I said. 

Yes, you can probably develop pitchers with a bad defense.  Seems like you are making it tougher on yourself since:

A.  Giving away outs forces them to throw more pitches and leads to more pitches thrown per inning

More development time for them then! But more seriously, I don't dispute this will happen, just that it matters all that much in the end. 

B.  Could potentially cause them to lose confidence

So could losing a series of 2-1 games where a single bad pitch cost them the game. Trying to be "too fine" can happen either way.

C.  Might make them focus on striking hitters out which causes them to struggle

Oh no, not striking people out! Clemens, Burnett, Halladay, Stieb, Guzman, Clancy - these are the names with the most strikeouts in a single season for the Jays. I'd rather a pitcher try to strikeout batters, just to see if they can do it. If they can't do it, chances are slim that they are good enough to stick around.

It's not anything that can probably be proven, but it seems pretty sensible to me that if you've got young pitchers it's better to actively try and help them by putting a good defense behind them. 

I acknowledge that this is common wisdom, but that doesn't mean it is true. It would be quite a large study - identify similar pitchers of the same ages coming from the minors, compare how the careers went and how the defense during their formative years (first 2-3?) may have factored in. Way past anything I have time to do, but possible. I don't see anything that indicates it's been done before...but the intertubewebs are a big place.

With all this talk of grass and EE's defence, I was wondering...the TV talking heads (Cambell and some old guy) were mentioning the other day that the Field Turf is slower than grass.  The Jays apprently play their fielders closer to the plate than say the Yankees because the Jays fielders know the ball will get to them slower.

If this is true, then wouldn't this a) help EE or most fielders with their defence (range, reaction), and b) be something the Jays could take advantage of or even market to players?

Maybe the "Butterfield effect" is actually related in part to the surface?

What does that even mean? Please make sense. Jason Bay was traded from a poor team to the Red Sox, does that make him a bad player? Answer: No.

Uh Jason Bay wasn't cheap.  If someone was cheap and had upside wouldn't the team most familiar with him value him more highly?   Cincinnati pretty clearly didn't.

Why should EE be impervious to Butter's instruction. EE has made more than a few good plays since arriving. No the metrics shouldn't be thrown out, but as I mentioned according to +/- a lot of his trouble has been with ball right at him. If he's coachable that seems like one of the most coachable aspects of playing 3B.

He looks as bad as the numbers look to me.   Sure maybe Butterfield can coach him to respectability, I wouldn't take it to the bank but the possibility exists.

A cheap 3B for a team that has no other options in the system. Sure that spells 75 wins for eternity. Again, you're making no sense. I see that many other posters disagree with you. This team needs players with upside. EE has upside, in fact, more upside than Rolen. The fact that you can't see it, doesn't make it true that he has no upside.

Rolen is an old man, of course he has more upside then EE.  The fact that you think he has upside doesn't make it any more true then me thinking that he doesn't.  Of course the team needs players with upside.  I just don't think this player has much, neither did his former employers.

Yes, every player follows a smooth trajectory upwards until they reach the magic number of 27. Yes, that's precisely how baseball works. Baseball players aren't human they're just statistic producing robots who work exactly like *the average data* say they should. C'mon, you must have realized how absurd that statement was when you wrote it. Take your I hate EE glasses off and get a dose of reality, please.

I don't hate the guy, just don't think he's an everyday third baseman in the major leagues.  Who said players need to have smooth trajectories?  You are saying he's going to be much improved next year over this year and the prior years.  I see that he hasn't improved at all the last three years, so it's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take that the fourth time around will be the magical improvement especially as he transitions to the most competitive division in baseball.

A dose of reality?  He's a player having a horrific year and by every defensive metric has been one of the worst third basemen in the game for a long time.  He hasn't improved one bit over three seasons and I'm just supposed to accept that he's going to be an average major league player next year based on nothing other then the Blue Jays have a good infield coach and he's going to be 27 years old.  All the evidence points the other way, the only thing on your side is your nebulous definition of 'upside', which another major league team who had a front row seat for many years decided wasn't there.  

Oh no, not striking people out! Clemens, Burnett, Halladay, Stieb, Guzman, Clancy - these are the names with the most strikeouts in a single season for the Jays. I'd rather a pitcher try to strikeout batters, just to see if they can do it. If they can't do it, chances are slim that they are good enough to stick around.

Well no kidding you want guys to strike out a lot of hitters if they can.  You don't want guys nibbling because they are scared of contact.  I know it's chic in baseball to just assume that all the people inside the game are wrong, but there is something to be said for common sense. 

OPS+ isn't corrected for the level of play it was acheived against.  It in no way corrects for the huge gap between the pitching talent in the AL East versus the NL Central.  Since that is where almost half your games are played that's a pretty huge issue and forces a discount when you are projecting the new situation.

With six games to go, he's up to 263/314/406. Now, that's certainly not great--it's not even good

I know what your saying, but that is still brutal. 314/406? If he was a gold glove shortstop or something maybe that would be tollerable, but bleck! That's some major suck.

Fangraphs shows this as EE's worst defensive year by UZR.  I don't see anywhere it breaks out the number Reds vs. Blue Jays.

I respectably disagree on the difference between the AL East and NL Central.  I think 5-6% is being conservative.

Based on today's rosters:

Yankees:Pirates  Pirates:Durham Bulls

If the Yankees and Pirates played 162 games, the Yankees would go something like 115-47.  I think the Bulls would be better then 47-115 against Pittsburgh.

I think everyone can agree that the Jays are considerably better then the Pirates or Reds or Astros.  The Jays are 15-37 (.288) against NY/Bos/Tampa.  Jays are 5-9 (.357) when Halladay starts against those teams and 10-28 (.263) when he doesn't. 

The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays would demolish the NL Central.  The Yankees would win 110, Red Sox 105, Rays 100.  The Yankees have played (.662) baseball against everyone but the Red Sox (.500).   That's 107 win pace in the AL outside of the other superpower.

There is nothing you can do - and nowhere for him to go -

You could increase Wells' salary per AB.

Alex, took me a sec to realize what you were saying, but dude, that's sheer genius (not necessarily the plan -- the way you worded it!)

Aaron Fitt did have good things to say about the Doubledays' prospects in the chat.  He said that Wellington Ramirez was #21, based on feedback from league managers and scouts (though he was less enthusiastic, given 4 years in the DSL).  He commented on Goins, Schimpf (good bats, regardless of size), Gomes (good defender, pop should come) and Ochinko (might move to 1B).

Age shouldn't have been too much of a concern as the majority of the top 20 were 20-22 years old.

Maybe the team that signs McDonald to play LF can also sign Millar to play 3B. He'll be starting there tonight while Ruiz sits and watches, wondering what he has to do get playing time in September.

Millar keeps the clubhouse aka 'the ship' from sinking. Ruiz can't do that.

How bout some good news? The Sun is reporting that Dustin McGowan made 50 throws from 125 feet yesterday and reported no discomfort in his shoulder.

Also, I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere else, but Canada won the Bronze medal, their best finish ever, in the 2009 Baseball World Cup, with a final record of 12-3, with their loses coming against the US and Cuba (Gold and Silver medal winners) and an extra innings loss to Australia.  Trystan Magnuson won the tournament award as the best reliever and Angel Sanchez (playing for Puerto Rico) was named the most outstanding defensive player.

Lind, as far as I'm aware, still can't play the field because of nagging injuries. That's the reason Bautista's starting every game in the outfield and Ruiz isn't playing (although he should be playing first base against lefties instead of Millar).

I don't believe the issue was that there wasn't enough money to pay draft picks. It was that ownership didn't allocate enough money to the draft and/or didn't want to go too much over slot.

It's the exact same thing.  Fine, the annoying thing about Millar is that he's employed by an organziation who is willing to pay playing time bonus money to a player who doesn't deserve any playing time  while in the same season either cutting back their draft budget between draft day and the signing deadline or changing their mind about going over slot after picking players they knew they would have to go over slot to sign.

Being willing as an organization to pay Millar bonus money is an indictment of every person in the organization who is involved in decision making.  Does Millar have sort of Jedi mindtrick that makes Cito and JP want to hand him a sack of cash on his way out the door?  Does a 75 win team really need to reward the clubhouse leaders that led them to such a lofty position?

How about avoiding the plate appearances just out of respect for the 500 fans who care enough to even notice something this ridiculous situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but did you just complain that the Tampa-Baltimore game was too short?  Granted, you'll get your wish in the playoffs when Papelbon takes 2 minutes and 47 seconds between every pitch.

Baseball has always had meaningless games in September.  Their issue this year is that 15 of the 16 games are now meaningless. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but did you just complain that the Tampa-Baltimore game was too short?

I'm all for well played crisp baseball.  When you have 7 pitching changes in a game total and play it that quickly, that isn't crisp baseball.  That is just batters giving away plate appearances.

There always has been meaningless baseball in September, it just wasn't flaunted so obviously by the teams and managers.  You are a major league baseball team with the ability to put 40 men on your roster.  You are charging full freight, you should field a lineup within reason (for example, no Baldelli and Millar playing third) and not blow off the game to the point where there are more pitching changes then pitches taken.  Letting a good soldier like JMac play the outfield to build value in his mind is one thing, to let your third catcher toss meatballs when your franchise charges huge dollars for their tickets is another.

September has turned into March.  Certainly a lack of good pennant races is effecting interest, but 'professionals' that can't even pretend to go through the motions are a sham. 

It's going to be an interesting off season.  It feels as though there are a pretty large number of franchises who are going to look at their attendance, look at the economy and decide to get even more conservative. 

Some of the teams that have the most empty stadiums are the most troubling: 

Cincinnati is drawing flies and they spent their budget room on Rolen already.  They have some good young arms that all seem hurt and are so far away from being competitive even in that division it's hard to believe. 

Washington was a terrible idea in the first place and it's been even worse then you could expect.  Strasburg will at least put some people in the stadium next April but if you just look at their television ratings it's hard to think that short of being a perenial World Series contender they are ever going to have any interest.  Angelos is crazy, but he wasn't totally wrong about the Baltimore/Washington situation. 

Cleveland plays their home games in front of what looks to be a couple of thousand people on good nights.  They are lucky to be in a division where a quick turnaround is possible, but unless they find a rotation it is hard to believe they fell so far so fast from the ALCS only 2 years ago. 

You can start to see some promise on the field in Baltimore, but their fan base is just disgusted with another late season disaster.  I love teams that build from within, but if they don't hit on those starters they will just continue to give up so many runs that they will won't be competitive before it's time to pay Jones & Weiters - assuming that they even continue to blossom into stars. 

My guess is that these teams pull an Anti-Detroit and pull back spending and budgets which will only make it harder to sell tickets.  If you don't sell tickets in the offseason and get off to a slow start it's just another season of the same cycle.

I started to feel like things had gotten out of hand between the haves and the have nots in baseball around 2000, but was encouraged by the next half dozen seasons or so.  It seems more dire now then ever though.  The high spending teams have gained such a huge advantage that there are about a dozen franchises that have started to atrophy and it's hard to really see how they can do anything other then try and catch lightning in a bottle.

This is just a guess, but I have a feeling that the television ratings for the playoffs are going to be shockingly bad.  Even here in the Northeast US people are starting to get Red Sox-Yankees fatigue. 

There's no hidden agenda with Millar. 

Exaclty. Cito knows what he's doing. It's obvious. The more games Millar was in the line-up, the more loses pile-up, the higher the draftpick the Jays recieve in 2010. Cito has been looking longterm after all. Unfortunately, Paplebon hit and injured Lind and Ruiz has snuck back into the line-up. Again, revealing the sham, I mean, plan.

I do, and I'm in the middle of the other thread defending him against unwarranted criticism. I agree that Phillips won't get the starts at 3B, but I still believe he should.

Actually, a more accurate description is that I want to know how well or poorly Phillips can handle third. If the Jays feel confident on their own internal scouting reports (or feel like one game in Baltimore won't give them much of an idea) that's fine, but I want to know if, should Phillips make the roster next year, the team can count on him as a backup/emergency 3B or is he a catcher in the same way John McDonald's a catcher?

I'm sure Phillips isn't very good at 3B, but is he not very good but tolerable in certain situations or not very good as in an absolute trainwreck.