The Jays are now tied for the 8th worst record in MLB. Hopefully they can still catch the Mets and Diamondbacks, but youneverknow. As long they can secure a top 10 pick, I won't be pulling my hair out. 

Interesting stat from Buster Olney today.....

Here is a look at the teams with the most losses from their bullpen:

Nationals - 37
Blue Jays - 28
Mariners - 27
Mets - 26

This helps explain how the Jays are underperforming based on runs scored and allowed. 

We're #2!

I guess this is as good a thread as any for an Alex Rios update (what with his September performance being the antithesis of Bautista's):

Rios, Tor  264/317/427 (479 PA)
Rios, Chi  147/162/216 (106 PA)
Rios, Tot  242/289/387, OPS+ 76

As FYI, Wells:  264/317/407, OPS+ 90

Guillen has been mainly playing Rios in CF and batting him 8th or 9th. He wouldn't look out of place as a 9th place hitter in the NL where his White Sox slash line is awfully close to that of NL pitchers: 139/179/177.

can Bautista be trained to play shortstop? If he can, Encarnacion can remained at 3B and solving the eventual aging of Scutaro, shortage of MLB-ready shortstop in the Jays system and avioding signing free agent shortstop at high prices.

Bautista's second outfield assist at Yankee stadium this season, this latest nailing Rodriguez at home plate  on Tuesday, was a game changer (it usually is). Two home runs there in two games, one "a howitzer" into the wind, resulted in awe and respect in the YES colour guy's voice.  If the Blue Jays can't resign him, maybe the Yankees will.

Bautista shall be resigned. He seems to a valuable asset to be kept and Blue jays shall hang on ot him given the fact that there are not enough MLB ready hitting prospect from the minor leagues.

I'd be surprised if the Jays resign Bautista.  His contract was viewed pretty negatively round these parts last year, and he's been worse in 09 than in 08.  Add in that we are cutting costs and I call him as close to a goner as any free agent this side of Johnny Mac.

Heh.  This year the pen is preventing the Jays from winning the close ones.  Last year we had a killer pen though and still were a mile below the runs scored/allowed ratio.  Go figure.

In truth the difference is what it always has been.  Random odds.  The Jays just happen to be the one team with horrid luck lately (8 games below this year, 7 last year), while the Angels have had great luck (5 this, 12 last).  Just try to figure out why one has had the luck and the other has not and I doubt you'll find any common factor that can be applied to both years.

In 2008: LAA 94/111 OPS+/ERA+
In 2009: LAA 105/100

In 2008: Tor 94/122
In 2009: Tor 101/99

In 2008 the Jays were better, in 2009 the Angels but the Jays should've been close to them both years in W-L one would expect.  Yet the Angels are getting to the playoffs both years and the Jays sit at home.  Go figure.

To depress further, if we switch the 'luck'...
Toronto 2008: 105 wins, would've been viewed as best team in MLB
Toronto 2009: 79 wins, still 7 back of Boston for the playoffs (88 win pace)

LAA: 2008: 81 wins, still in playoffs by 2 games (!)
LAA: 2009: 74 wins and in 3rd in the west just 6 up on the A's for last place

Interesting. Depressing, but interesting.

Next year's shortstop, if Scutaro leaves, is not currently in the system. It's not Aaron Hill - he gave it a try and made almost as many errors as Russ Adams but without Adams' range. It's not Jose Bautista, who's played exactly 2 professional games at the position, way back in A ball. There is probably an example of a 29 year old third baseman making a successful switch to shortstop. But I doubt there's very many of them.

Very strange year with the bat for Bautista. Despite the anemic BAVG, he gets on base. He gets on base much more often than Aaron Hill. But Johnny Mac has a better slugging percentage.

There was an absolutely awful moment last week when I looked at my scoresheet and realized that at that moment John McDonald had a better slugging percentage than half the guys the Jays were starting that day. At that time, McDonald was out-slugging Wells, Snider, Millar, and Bautista, all of whom were playing that day. (Luckily - for the sake of my sanity - Chavez, Inglett and Encarnacion weren't in the lineup. Johnny Mac was outslugging all of them too.

The prospect of John McDonald having the second best slugging percentage in any lineup shouldn't ever be a possibility, not in this universe or any other. But there it was.

In truth the difference is what it always has been. Random luck.

This year's winner in the Random Dumb Luck Sweepstakes, of course, are the Seattle Mariners. Which is simply a waste. It's not like it's done them any good. Their insane good fortune has let them coast to a third place finish, rather than having to fight it out with Oakland. The Mariners have been outscored by 54 runs, but they've been ridiculously lucky in one run games (30-17).

All this is likely to accomplish is to give the people running the team a distorted view as to just how good their team is. Or isn't, to be precise. That's got to be the most pathetic offense in the major leagues.

Here is a look at the teams with the most losses from their bullpen:

Nationals - 37
Blue Jays - 28
Mariners - 27
Mets - 26

One thing I noticed when looking back at this year's schedule: the Jays are 1-9 in road games that went into extra innings. How many teams have that many extra-inning games on the road? It's not all bad luck, of course - the Jays don't score a lot of runs - but it's hard to win in extras on the road. They're a much more respectable 4-3 in extra-inning games at home.

If you just take away those 10 road games, the Jays are 65-71 - which isn't great, but is a lot better than where they are now.

Seattle is the team that hired Tango as an independent advisor. I'm sure they are perfectly aware of lucky they are.

I'm sure they are perfectly aware of lucky they are.

Well, I'm sure Tango is aware! Now he's just got to convince his employers..

Besides the obvious potential problems on defense, the idea of Bautista being your everyday SS is a bad one for another reason - he sux vs. RHP which will make up roughly 3/4 of the at bats in any season.

Here's his slash stats vs. RHP this year:
.199 .352 .280 .631
If one were to assume he'd be the 9th hitter, and that 1/4 of his at-bats were against lefties, and base the number of at bats on what all #9 hitters have accumulated this year (pro-rated to 162 games) then you have

155 plate apperances vs LH and 465 against RH

projecting from this year's stats, that might look something like this:

vs RH
465 PA, 367 AB, 73 H, 9 doubles, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 80 BB, 112 K, 7 SB
7 HBP, 11 SH

vs LH
155 PA, 131 AB, 36 H, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 22 BB, 25 K, 1 SB, 0 HBP, 1 SH

Total-
620 PA, 498 AB, 109 H, 17 - 2 - 12, 42 RBI , 102 BB, 137 K,  8 SB, 7/12

For slash stats of -
.219 - .371 - .333 - .701

That kinda cancels out the appeal of doing the work to convert JB to SS for me.


(disclaimier - of course such a projection is kinda silly since few players are the same year over year, but JB's splits are on par with his career splits so its not like he's likely to suddenly figure out RHP)


If the Jays non-tender JB and bring him back to work almost entirely against lefties for...say $1 million or so, I'm down with that. But he's making too much now for what he brings.

 I doubt you'll find any common factor that can be applied to both years.

Mike Scioscia?

Scioscia, a good bullpen, a good bench, and some wheels (and hence the ability to use one-run strategies where required). 

Good bullpen - exactly what the Jays had in 2008. Wheels? Tampa Bay has more SB and fewer CS than Anaheim this year but are 4 games below their expected W/L (their pen is decent but not amazing).

Dusty Baker seemed to do it for a few years but checking he seems more to alternate good with bad - kind of a random pattern :)

Since 2004 LAA have been above their expected W-L (6 years now) but 2001/2002/2003 they were below it and just one win above in 2000 (Scioscia's first year there). Maybe they did figure out something, or maybe it is just luck.

Bautista has a great outfield arm, flexibility at 3rd, and an unreliable bat. That gives him some value to certain teams. Unless the Jays have an unaddressable shortage, however, he has no value to a team that isn't contending for anything, and has very little budget.

If the question is play him or play Encarnacion, then I play Encarnacion. We won't be contending for anything, and one player has a possible upside, while the other doesn't.

Inglett can be the backup at 3rd, and in some outfield spots, as well as at 2nd. He's not as good defensively in the outfield, but better at 2nd. For outfield defense, we need a fast guy who can play center (given Vernon's declining skills) and pinch run (a current gap) anyway. Which leaves Bautista with no role.

Any offseason trades could change the scene at 3rd. If they ship Encarnacion out and don't bring in another 3B player, then we may need the depth Bautista provides, since the farm has nothing. If we can't satisfy the need with equivalent talent, for less.

The money saved can be put into the draft.

Dear Cito,

It's 2009.  A 9-4 game in the 8th inning isn't over and a stolen base should not be an affront to you.  Welcome to the 21st Century it's an exciting time.

A couple of thoughts on Saturday's game:
-I don't see why EE's being bashed that much - his defense seems pretty solid so far.. maybe it's just me and the condensed game summaries.. Seems to make even most non-routine plays and has a strong arm.
-IMHO, Ricky Ro came back after a shaky 1st and really settled down
-Matt Garza just freaking owns the Jays
-putting League out there after 6+ of Ricky Ro seemed to be just plain EEEEEVIL..

Next year's shortstop, if Scutaro leaves, is not currently in the system. It's not Aaron Hill - he gave it a try and made almost as many errors as Russ Adams but without Adams' range.

Hill's play at SS was very early in his career. He should not be precluded as a failure there because of that experience. SS range may be a little different than 2nd base range, but Hill handles the range at 2nd exceptionally well. No reason to believe he can't handle the range at SS. He would not be the reincarnation of Ozzie, however Hill at short and Inglett trying out at second would not be a weak fielding configuration. Also, that arrangement could provide some strength for the offense.

This year's winner in the Random Dumb Luck Sweepstakes,

Sorry to be picking on you today Magpie, but I was just wondering if use of the terms Random and Dumb was redundant??

Next year's shortstop, if Scutaro leaves, is not currently in the system. It's not Aaron Hill - he gave it a try and made almost as many errors as Russ Adams but without Adams' range. Hill's play at SS was very early in his career. He should not be precluded as a failure there because of that experience. SS range may be a little different than 2nd base range, but Hill handles the range at 2nd exceptionally well. No reason to believe he can't handle the range at SS. He would not be the reincarnation of Ozzie, however Hill at short and Inglett trying out at second would not be a weak fielding configuration. Also, that arrangement could provide some strength for the offense.   In an ideal world, if Hill is converted into a SS, Scutaro/Ingett platoon is good enough. Given the age factor, Scutaro's performance decline with age and thus places Scutaro himself out of the starting lineup more. Inglett can just pick up the slack. Encarnacion plays at 3B. Overbay, Ruiz, LInd, Wells, Barajas all remain in their positions. The above scenerio is based on no free agent signing.

I am quite convinced that Bautista is not suitable for shortstop. For spring training invitee from the minor league hitters from within the Jays system, Dopirak, Kyle Phillips and maybe Kevin Howard can be awarded with invitations. But Arencibia is, em, unfathomable.

BTW, Former Jays AAA hitter Erik Kratz is awarded AAA all-star this season; do you guys think he is a younger version of Raul Chavez?

The Rios watch continues...

After breaking out with a 2-hit game yesterday, his second in three gamse, he was pinch-hit for today. By Mark Kotsay. Ouch.

I'm sure the White Sox brass will have many discussions in the off-season trying to figure out how to turn Rios around. I smell some good-cop-bad-cop coming.

Another former Jay, Scott Eyre, might be forced to retire after an elbow injury. He carved out a nice career while remaining under the radar.

Burnett may also be paying the price for having such heavy season last year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=512&position=P

Even though he has been healthy, his seasonal value is less than half of what it was last year. His K's are down and walks are up. His fly ball rate is rising and his fastball hasn't been as effective.

just wondering if use of the terms Random and Dumb was redundant?

Not at all. It's Dumb Luck because it's got nothing to do with any virtue (such as wisdom or foresight) and it's Random Luck because it just lands on a team for no apparent reason, keeps them company, and flitters away to nest somewhere else for a time.

Alternatively, we could simply regard the adjective "Dumb" simply as an intensifier, emphasizing the nature of the Luck that is being described. We can regard "Random" as an adverb describing how this Dumb Luck manifests itself in the world...

:-)

In other words, dumb luck is when my opponent's finesse in bridge succeeds.  When mine succeeds, it is purely due to good planning and foresight. 

It's Dumb Luck because it's got nothing to do with any virtue (such as wisdom or foresight) and it's Random Luck because it just lands on a team for no apparent reason,

Mmmm... Let me see if I understand how there is no redundancy. Dumb Luck = no virtue such as wisdom or foresight (i.e. no apparent reason) and Random Luck = no apparent reason (i.e. no apparent virtue such as wisdom or foresight).

;-)

I'd put it like this: random luck is where you try something that might or might not work, and it does. Dumb luck is where you try something that probably shouldn't work, but it does.

Isn't luck inherently random?  If not, how does it choose its victims?

Oh boy, it's a *really* dull September for Jays fans.   A semantic scrap has broken out on Da Box!  (Don't forget Magpie's Joycean connections:  he'll slip out of this little encumbrance with ease.)

It could be worse...the organization could've won the bidding war for Angel Villalona.

That would have been an appropriate end to this season.