Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2009 Minor League Season

2009 Minor League Season - Impressions

In a season where the minor leagues send players such as Travis Snider, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski and Scott Richmond to the big league club, is it fair to say that 2009 was a disappointing year for the minor leagues? Although those players made a great contribution to the major league team the system behind them is thin and many players who had great expectations on them failed to develop in 2009. A major area of concern for the Jays should be the lack of development in most of the high school hitters picked over the last three drafts. The Jays do a great job in developing pitchers, the success with hitters, in particular the high school hitters, has been less so. The Jays need to evaluate whether their drafting has been poor or if they need to change how they develop those high school hitters.

The 2009 minor league season has just ended and none of the affiliates are playing in the post-season. The season records for the Jays system was not good this season, coming off several promsing years. Here are the 2009 records:

Las Vegas            71-73
New Hampshire 64-78
Dunedin              67-67
Lansing              54-84
Auburn                26-49
GCL                     30-28

Combined 312-379 .452

The objective of the minor leagues is player development and 2009 was a good year for players coming to the major leagues. The problem is that behind them the cupboard is looking bare. If you ask the question "what minor leaguers should make their major league debuts in 2010?", the list is short. Zach Stewart is one but he is a Reds product. Brian Dopirak is another but he is a Cubs/Jays product, with questions. JP Arencibia could debut if he can improve his approach at the plate. There is not much else. If you understand this then it appears more likely Roy Halladay will be traded for major league ready position players because the Jays don't have them. The Jays need a shortstop, a centrefielder, a thirdbaseman and a catcher. The closest shortstop is in Dunedin, either Jackson or Pastornicky, the closest centrefielder/outfielder would be in AA, Mastroianni or Sierra, there is no third baseman, and Arencibia is close as a catcher.

Of all the high school players drafted by the Jays in 2007 and 2008 only one, Tyler Pastornicky, has stood out and stepped up. Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, John Tolisano, Eric Eiland, Marcus Brisker, Jon Talley, and Kenny Wilson have not yet burst into the prospect spotlight. They are young and time is on their side but they haven't shown yet that they can hit anywhere close to .300. Hopefully 2010 will see a host of Moises Sierra's who boost their batting averages from the .220's to over .300.

The old saying is that one third of your prospects will improve, one third stagnate and one third decline. 2009 feels like a year where 50% declined, almost all the high school kids, Brad Emaus, JP Arencibia, Brian Jeroloman and Scott Campbell declined in 2009. Or to put it another way in a gross generization, the pitchers moved up and the hitters moved down the prospect rankings.

The Jays do still have pitching on the way, albeit more relievers than starters. Pitchers like Danny Farquhar, Bobby Bell, Luis Perez, Trystan Magnuson and Tim Collins are all a year or two away. Andrew Liebel pitched well this season despite his #4 or #5 starter label; Chad Jenkins will be on his way in 2010 as well.

Prospect development can be cyclical, the Jays have graduated a lot of players to the major leagues recently, now they have a cupboard that is running low. 2010 will be a make-or-break year for many of the high school draftees. In the off-season the Jays might want to re-evaluate how they develop high school hitters. Right now it isn't working for them.

Stats Time

I had a quick look around the system looking at the following (feel free to guess along):

Which hitters had the best OPS and which had the best OPS+

Which hitters struckout the most?

Which hitters walked the most and had the best eyes?

Which pitchers had the best WHIP/9?

Which pitchers had the best K/9 rates?

Which pitchers had the best strikeout to walk ratio?

Looking at the OPS+ question first it is interesting to see how the league average OPS increases at the higher levels. Here is my estimate of league OPS based on the team totals.

PCL 763
EL 715
FSL 680
MWL 698
NYPL 660
GCL 648

The leaders at each level for the Jays were (with appropriate AB cut-offs):

PCL - Randy Ruiz 976; 128 OPS+
EL - Brian Dopirak 951; 133+
FSL - Darin Mastroianni 816; 120+
MWL - Brian Van Kirk 840; 120+
NYPL - Welinton Ramirez 830; 126+
GCL - Carlos Perez 797; 123+

Obviously Randy Ruiz and Brian Dopirak had the highest absolute numbers. Dopirak put up a 115 OPS+ in AAA too. From a league average perspective Dopirak in AA was the best with his 133 OPS+. Interestingly all the leaders were in the 120'ish range.

The leader in strikeouts among the affiliates was Yohermyn Chavez with 137 in 508 AB's. Second, surprisingly, was Brian Jeroloman with 120. Also high were Balbino Fuenmayor - 119, JP Arencibia - 114, and Adam Loewen - 114. Among short-season teams Eric Eiland had 95 strikeouts.

On a percentage basis Eiland was the leader with 44% of his at-bats ending with a K. Loewen was second at 34% with Jeroloman at 33%.

Some of the biggest whiff artists were also the biggest walkers. Loewen and Eiland led their teams in walks. Other walk leaders include Jason Lane, Todd Donovan and Brian Van Kirk. Donovan led the Jay's minor leaguers with 74 walks.

The best eyes belonged to Howie Clark who had a 34/27 BB/K ratio. Scott Campbell and Jon Diaz each had 2 more walks than K's in more limited playing time in New Hampshire. Donovan was close with a 74/75 ratio as was Darin Mastroianni at Dunedin with a ratio of 37/38. In AA Mastroianni kept his good eye with a 39/45 ratio.

Among the worst were Balbino Fuenmayor who had 9 walks against 119 K's. Jesus Gonzalez had 10 walks versus 99 K's. Gustavo Pierre walked three times and struck out 45 times.

Turning to the pitchers the leader in WHIP was Dunedin's Bobby Bell at 0.91. Bell started the season as a reliever and recorded a .99 WHIP. For the latter half of the season he started and reduced his WHIP to .86 as a starter. Tied in second place were a pair of Lansing relievers, Matt Daly and Frank Gailey at 1.09. Daly followed that up with a .86 WHIP in Dunedin to end the season. Next was Henderson Alvarez at 1.13; Reidier Gonzalez at 1.13; Tim Collins 1.16; Kenny Rodriguez (Dunedin) 1.19 and Chuck Huggins (Dunedin) 1.20. In short season Dave Sever, Matt Fields, Dennis Tepera and Nestor Molina all had good numbers.

The pitcher with the best K/9 rate was Tim Collins at 13.8 in Dunedin. Collins followed that up with a 12.1 in 12 AA innings. In second place, among full-season teams, was Collins' team mate Bobby Bell at 10.5. They were followed by Marc Rzepczynski (AA) at 10.3 and Danny Farquhar (AA) 10.1. In short season ball Casey Beck had a ratio of 12.2; Matt Wright 11.0; and Dennis Tepera 10.3.

The K/BB ratio leader was Bobby Bell at 5.1; Henderson Alvarez was second at 4.8. Dirk hayhurst was at 4.0; Tim Collins 3.5. Reidier Gonzalez, Chuck Huggins and Andrew Liebel also had scored better than 2.5. In short season ball Dave Sever led Auburn at 3.8; Dennis Tepera and Matt Fields in the GCL had the crazy ratios of 10.5 and 8.0 respectively.

You can see from these numbers that in general the hitters are better at the higher levels and pitchers find the K's going down and the walks going up. If that doesn't happen then you are major league material.

In summary the Jays have some deep analysis to do in the off-season. If a couple more of the high school hitters had develop strongly in 2009 we would be talking about what a good year it was for the minor leagues. Between the 2007 and 2008 drafts the Jays selected nine high school hitters in the first ten rounds, six hitters in the first five rounds. You should expect to get three to four major leaguers out of that group, here's hoping.

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 11:17 AM EDT.

2009 Minor League Season - Impressions | 36 comments | Create New Account

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Ducey - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#206016) #

Thanks Gerry,

I had been under the impression that the Jays were pushing/ challenging their high school hitters by putting them at higher levels than might otherwise have been the case.

Is this not correct?

Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#206017) #

Excellent summary, Gerry.

Between the 2007 and 2008 drafts the Jays selected nine high school hitters in the first ten rounds, six hitters in the first five rounds. You should expect to get three to four major leaguers out of that group, here's hoping.

The high school hitters drafted in 2007 and 2008 in the first 10 rounds were:

Ahrens (1st round-16th overall), Jackson (1st supp), Tolisano (2nd), Eiland (2nd), McDade (6th), Wilson (2nd), Pastornicky (5th), Brisker (6th), Jimenez (9th)

In my view, par for the course would be two major leaguers and three would be very successful drafting (one of the two first rounders, one of the three second rounders and one of the four fifth to tenth rounders).

On another note, has anyone got a scouting report on John Tolisano at the plate? His W/K/HR rates are good for his age and level, but his BABIP was very low this season and has never been good. It might be suggestive of a player with an uppercut who pops up a lot.

Gerry - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#206018) #

Ducey:

The Jays have challenged their young hitters but other than Pastornicky, and perhaps Jimenez, they haven't responded. When I interviewed Dick Scott earlier this season and asked him about the 2007 draftees at Dunedin he said that the second half of 2009 was the time for them to step and start hitting. Jackson, Ahrens and Tolisano did not step up and now they will start 2010 as 20/21 year olds and they need to show they can hit. They haven't so far and hitting usually shows through by age 20.

Mike:

When I said 3 or 4 major leaguers I was including "cup of coffee" guys. Right now it doesn't look like many of the hitters will even get here for their cuppa. Two full timers would be a good return.

Gerry - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#206019) #

This link is to a Fangraphs summary that looks at prospect success rates. Here is an excerpt:

* 59% of �B grade� hitting prospects bust.
* 52% of �B grade� pitching prospects bust.
* 83% of �C grade� hitting prospects bust.
* Around 75% of all �C grade� pitching prospects bust.

I am not sure if any of the Jays high school hitters made it to grade B.

ramone - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#206020) #

As dissapointing as the draft was this year, I suppose it's good that the hitters were signed oppossed to the pitchers that were not. JP has not been able to draft a 3rd baseman or short stop in his entire term as GM, or a first basemen either. I'm hoping with perhaps a top ten pick in the 2010 draft that the Jays can land a college infield positional player (anything but a 2nd basemen mind you).

After looking at this summary of the farm system and the current needs of the MLB club, I really don't see them near contention even if they up the payroll in 2010. I'm more inclined to believe that they do need to trade Halladay, try a new GM, and obviously completely re-evaluate their dafting and development process of high school hitters.

lexomatic - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#206021) #

According to this post Gerry... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/8/12/985750/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-pre
Jackson was a B+
Mills, Arencibia, Cooper, Cecil and Snider were the others to get a B or higher ranking.

I`m curious what the ebb and flow is for guys who stay on the lists for a few years... which is the most predictive ranking (re Frangraphs siummary) the first one or one of the subsequent ones. I think I`m going to post that question now.

John Northey - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#206022) #

The Jays have been successful with pitching, more or less, via the aggressive promotion method. Scott Richmond barely saw the minors after being signed from an independent team, Brett Cecil was in short season A in 2007, jumped all the way to AAA in 2008 before coming to the majors. Marc Rzepczynski was in low A (full season) last year before striking out everyone in AA/AAA and being at 8.8 K/9 in the majors this year. Robert Ray was only in A+ in 2007, less than 100 innings in AA last year before getting his shot this year (before injuries). Brad Mills was short season A in 2007, under 33 IP in AA last year and majors/AAA this year (before injuries).

Hrm. That injury thing keeps coming up doesn't it? Still, it is interesting that 5 guys made the rotation at times this year who were in low A or worse in 2007, many of whom I doubt many here thought would get a shot in the majors in 2009 and probably not even 2010. So predicting who will be on the staff in 2010 in the event (OK, the certainty) of injuries is impossible as guys who pitched in low A this year (such as Charles Huggins for example) could be here in 2010.

Hitting though... ugh. Seems like guys have to master each level before promotion to get here. J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman are close but seems to be stalled out. Angel Sanchez seems good but no one hypes him so I doubt he'll be getting a shot anytime soon even though he is in AAA playing shortstop and hit 305/363/428 this year. Only two infielders under 24 reached AA or higher - Sanchez, Luis (22 SS hitting 188/263/243 overall between A/AA) and Emaus, Brad in AA (23-3B, 253/336/376). JPA was the only catcher that high. In the outfield Sierra, Moises is the big hope at 20 in AA (292/360/399 overall), with just Snider, Mastroianni, Darin (297/398/364 and 70 SB) and Van Kirk, Brian (265/373/434) under 24 in AA/AAA. The only remaining kid in AA/AAA is Cooper, David who is 22 and hit 258/340/389 this year.

Not a ton of young talent in AA/AAA ready to jump in right away. If Mastroianni is solid on defense I'd love him in CF despite the lack of power as he'd be fun to watch I'm sure. Sierra could climb even faster to the majors though as being just 20 this year makes him likely to have another big jump (20 year olds in AA or higher are golden). So more and more outfielders coming up thus making the Rios move even more sensible (last 14 days hitting 105/105/132 but getting hot with his 158/158/158 in the past 7). FYI: looked to the ChiSox blogs and can't find a lot of anger towards Rios - they seem to think he'll bounce back to a 750+ OPS guy and be solid in CF. Bit of a surprise there.

jgadfly - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#206023) #

RE: Angel Sanchez ... I thought the Jays might give him a look in September with Scutaro possibly leaving but they would have had to have added him to the 40 man roster. Also, he missed the last 5 games of the season and was replaced by Manny Mayorson who was resigned to the organization. I could not ascertain whether he was injured or whether he left the team on September 2nd when perhaps he found out that he was not being promoted.

Ozzieball - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#206024) #

~~controversial opinion~~

JP Arencibia actually improved from last near, as judged by his LD%, K%, and K/BB but his overall numbers dropped due to a large drop in BABIP.

Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#206025) #

Arencibia's performance in Las Vegas this year was, in my view, pretty comparable to what he did in New Hampshire in 2008. He was perhaps a bit unlucky in Las Vegas and a bit lucky in New Hampshire. If you mark him down as hitting .250 in the high minors with a poor W/K and good pop, that is a fair description. Needless to say, those numbers don't translate well.

Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#206026) #

On a positive note, there were a couple of young players who did make some progress this year. Mike McDade made some significant strides adding power and some semblance of plate control. He is, broadly speaking, on the Ryan Howard track right now, and might be a valuable contributor in 2014 or so. A.J. Jimenez hit .260 with little power and no control of the strike zone. That doesn't sound like much, but for a 19 year old catcher in the Midwest League, there is actually promise there.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#206028) #

2009 Draft Class has some promise, even though Stephen Jenkins, Jacob Marisnick, Kristopher Hobson, Andrew Hutchison, Robert Webb won't be playing until 2010. Sean Ochinko (C), Egan Smith (LHP), and Stephen Turnbull (RHP) started in Auburn and did well. Ryan Goins (SS), Ryan Shopshire (RHP) start in GSL and advance to Lansing for doing well. Ryan Schimpf (2B), Yan Gomes (C), Jack Murphy (C), Evan Teague (LHP), Shawn Griffith (RHP) progressed from GSL to Auburn after doing well. Honourable mention to Brian Slover (RHP), Dennis Tepera (RHP), Matt Fields(RHP), Lance Lofton (RHP) and Alex Pepe (LHP). We shouldn't see anyone from this Draft Class before 2011, at the very earliest, more like 2012 -14 for the majority of the fast risers.

wacker - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#206032) #

im a big fan of the young hitters the jays have. i was at spring training this year and as stated in the past i am a big fan of jon talley mike mcdade j jackson etc. one example i give is talley i believe he had 4 or 5 homeruns during spring batted well over 300 gets sent to lansing, goes in the tank, and from what i understand the hitting coach there changed his whole approach at the plate why?. then look at what happened to mcdade last year couldn't hit a lick in lansing goes to auburn and tears it up.why? you all know what jackson did in lansing.why? makes me wonder if its not so much the kids but who they have working with them.

Waveburner - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#206033) #

Gerry,

I know you are very knowledgable about minor league prospects, but with regard to Jackson: I'm guessing the reason he didn't start hitting in the second half is because he had surgery and never played :) Overall I must say the HS prospects are disappointing, especially Ahrens and Eiland to me (Not going to to judge the 2008 guys much on their first pro season). I know Ahrens was drafted a touch higher than projected but he still had very fine scouting reports, and was considered one the top 5-7 pure hitters coming out of HS with solid power projection. He's a long way off that right now. I liked the Eiland selection out of the draft but he actually seemed to get significantly worse this year compared to '08. Tolisano I was never a fan of, though I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

wacker - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#206034) #

didnt jackson have surgery this year? last year in lansing he broke the team record in strikeouts and ahrens wasnt far behind

Gerry - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#206036) #

Justin Jackson is still a good prospect despite his struggles. Last year his hitting was OK but he struck out a lot. Then he started 2009 striking out at an even higher pace. He went on the DL in May and came back in June hitting well. But then he faded and had surgery. There was some talk that he started the season doing things the way he wanted and only when he struggled was he willing to change. The coaches say that a player has to fail before he will be willing to change. What we don't know is how much the sore shoulder interfered with Jackson's hitting, we will find out next spring.

You always hear about how Derek Jeter hit .200 in rookie ball and look where he is today. But if you leaf through the Baseball America prospect handbook and see how the top prospects hit in their first few years you see that a hitter can hit. Some do struggle in their first season but good hitters will figure out how to hit pretty fast. Look at Travis Snider, he came out of the draft hitting. Alex Rios had three years of hitting at .260, but he only struck out 10% to 15% of his at-bats. Then he went on to hit over .300 his next two seasons. Vernon Wells hit around .300 in each of his first three seasons. The more and longer that these high schoolers don't hit the more we have to devalue them as prospects. Maybe these high schoolers are Alex Rios's and they will hit .300 next season but if they don't hit next April or May they probably never will.

Pistol - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#206040) #

I am not sure if any of the Jays high school hitters made it to grade B.

I think Sierra might be the only hitter that makes it to a B grade, regardless of how they were acquired, and that's in part because of his defensive value.

From afar, it's tough to tell if there's a problem in selecting the players or developing the players, but it seems to be pretty fair to at least question the Jays ability to develop minor league hitters, particularly the younger HS hitters at this point.

bball12 - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#206041) #

Anyone can have a bad season - especially in the beginning of their professional career.

Not many can afford to have 3 bad years in a row.

The age thing - and the potential thing - really gets old after awhile.

Potential doesnt win games - nor does hype.

Only performance wins games.

Perhaps that needs to be recognized a bit more.

Perhaps.

Waveburner - Thursday, September 10 2009 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#206042) #

Just wondering, Casey Beck has great K numbers but how did the Jays acquire him? Doesn't seem to be a draft selection. Another Indy leaguer? Undrafted FA? Is he a prospect despite the age? 22 in short season.

Mylegacy - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#206045) #

The pitching continues to shine in the minors. Clearly our strength. Almost exceptional - really!

Snider and Ruiz are the two "young" guys that should help the team in 2010. Bearing in mind Ruiz will be 31 - ah - but young at heart. Dopriak has power - but - I feel Randy is more Dandy. The only position players who are "prospects" and "playing like prospects" are our four outfielders - Chavez, Thames, Sierra and Loewen. Of this group - Thames may be the best but he's very fragile, Chavez may end up making the biggest impact with his HR bat. Loewen will either star or flame - I'm leaning towards "Star" and Sierra made the biggest leap this year both in league level and personal performance.

Jackson, Aherns, Eiland, Brisker, Balbino, Talley, Tolisano and Wilson all remain "potential" - all could end up being busts - none has taken ANY meaningful step forward this year. Pastornicky can steal bases and get on base - at least a bit - in this crowd that makes him stand out(ish). The ONLY two Baby Jays who are deep prospects and doing something to prove it are Gus Pierre and Carlos Perez. Both of whom look like keepers - once they graduate out of diapers. Also INTERESTINGLY - the ONLY guy at AAA with GOOD stats and at least the guy has been a "prospect" at one time - before his missed 2007 season is Angel Sanchez who seems to get NO RESPECT from the team. With Scutaro going (hope not but probably) surely you'd think they'd give the ONLY GUY in the organization that might be able to replace him a September look? His not being up for September is a mystery to me.

Overall - while disappointing on one level - there is a LOT of talent 'specially pitching - that will end up having meaningful careers in the Bigs. I give the system an overall D for "stars", an "A" for pitching quantity, an "A" for pitching quality, and an overall rating of C-.

Jdog - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#206046) #

Kenny Wilson would be my pick for breakout prospect next season. He seemed to be coming around with the bat, and was injured. You heard it here first.

Forkball - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#206047) #

an "A" for pitching quality

I would think you would have to have at least one pitcher with an ace type ceiling to give that grade, or at least a handful of potential 2/3 starters.

Mike Green - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#206048) #

I make Pastornicky a B prospect at this point.

Gerry - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#206049) #

Angel Sanchez has been mentioned by a few posters. The issue with Sanchez appears to be his defense. Mike Wilner had the Las Vegas radio announcer on his program a month or so ago and he mentioned that Sanchez's range was a problem. I also heard Alex Anthopoulos say the same thing on the radio during a game earlier this week.

tstaddon - Friday, September 11 2009 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#206052) #

Zach Stewart may become the top pitching prospect (and overall prospect) in the system, but Bobby Bell sure appears on course to be a really interesting arm in the next 18 months. Wouldn't surprise me to see him hit AAA in 2010 and maybe even stop by for a cup of coffee, depending upon injuries.

timpinder - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#206054) #

Are the Jays going to use Stewart as a starter or a reliever? When the trade was made my understanding was that he was going to be groomed as a starter, but the Jays used him in relief in the minors. Was this just an innings thing, or his future in the bullpen?

Ozzieball - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#206055) #

Was this just an innings thing, or his future in the bullpen?

Cinci had already moved him to the bullpen once he hit AAA to keep him under his innings cap for the season. There is nothing to indicate that he will not be a starter from here on.

Maldoff - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#206056) #

Speaking of the trade, does anyone know why Roenicke hasn't pitched in September?

Gerry - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#206057) #

HRoenicke had a sore elbow for a while but I think he is ready to pitch now.

ayjackson - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#206058) #

Brian Dopirak was Baseball America's Blast From The Past for there full-season edition of the Hot Sheet. They quote his AA manager:

"He was not a professional hitter when we got him. He didn't know how to use the whole field. For whatever reason, (our Double-A batting coach) Paul Elliott really clicked with him last year, and opened up the whole field for him.

"He has taken to instruction and uses the whole field now, and his BP round is all to center and right-center field. He has power to all fields. He's also a real leader, a natural leader for us. He's an easy guy to root for."

Mylegacy - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#206059) #

Bobby Bell has been FANTASTIC - WONDERFUL - however he'll start 2010 at 24 years of age and been advanced by the organization at a GLACIAL pace despite DOMINATING everywhere he's been given the little white ball with red stitches and told throw this thingy past the batter to the catcher. Obviously - he follows instructions like a pro!

On the 2009 draftees and their performances - all that matters is "age and level" - some of these guys are 21ish playing against 18ish age guys - their performance means next to nothing. Next year they'll start to sort themselves.

As to the Jackson, Wilson, Aherns cabal - we have to remember that Sierra (who played the full 2009 season at 20 years of age) had a "break out" season. Like Jackson etal - he was considered a possible break out candidate - who broke out. The youngsters STILL have lots of time and chance to blossom. Hopefully, there's an orchid their somewhere.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 13 2009 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#206062) #

Mylegacy - Saturday, September 12 2009 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#206059) #

On the 2009 draftees and their performances - all that matters is "age and level" - some of these guys are 21ish playing against 18ish age guys - their performance means next to nothing.

You might not want to make so broad a statement as that. A good performance is a good performance is a good performance by any other name (to paraphrase). Of the 34 Draft picks in 2009, 5 did not play, 11 started in Low A, 18 start in GCL. Of the 29 players that started GCL in 2009, 20 are deemed College draft picks, 2 are deemed High School draft picks and at least 7 are considered International Signings (of how much experience). Starting in GCL and moving to Mid A is significant for a draft pick of 2009.

Any person who believes a High School Graduat-ish is "all grownup" is deluded. Just getting out of Rookie ball is a big accomplishment, don't denigrate the achievement. Some of these picks will be on the Top Blue Jay Prospect List when it comes out. Pay attention to the fast movers, they might be here in 2011.

Mylegacy - Sunday, September 13 2009 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#206063) #

Richard SS -

You say: "You might not want to make so broad a statement as that. A good performance is a good performance is a good performance by any other name..." Actually... a good performance by an 18 year old against 18 year olds IS a good performance. A good performance by a 21 year old against 18 year olds - not so much.

You say: "Of the 29 players that started GCL in 2009, 20 are deemed College draft picks, 2 are deemed High School draft picks and at least 7 are considered International Signings (of how much experience)." I SAY - the 20 college draft picks playing against mostly 18 year old competition SHOULD do better - they are older and more mature. However the 2 HSers and the 7 International Signings - who are closer to HS AGE - their performance in the GCL is MORE relevant because they are playing against their peers - not older kids.

You say (and quite boldly I might add...):

"Starting in GCL and moving to Mid A is significant for a draft pick of 2009."

I say: You are correct IF the kid moving up is YOUNG - it is not so "significant" if the kid moving to High Rookie (Auburn) or Low A (Lansing) is a college kid. Remember -MOST college kids START in Auburn or Lansing (or their teams equivalent of those two teams).

You Say: "Any person who believes a High School Graduat-ish is "all grownup" is deluded. "

I say: I agree 100% - IN FACT that is MY point. That is PRECICELY why college kids records against HS kids don't mean much in their first year just after being drafted. Thank you for at least PARTLY understand what I was saying in my post.

Now - lets play ball!

Gerry - Sunday, September 13 2009 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#206067) #

On mlb.com Tony LaCava talks about some of the Jays prospects.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 13 2009 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#206072) #

We have a problem(s). Roy Halladay starts 2010, unless J.P. or some one else (new management) trades him, and makes 33+ starts as usual. Shawn Marcum will be totally heathy (re: recovering from surgery) but will be on an inning limit for this year and next. Dustin McGowan is making very good progress, and might be back sometime next year (2 year inning limit). Ricky Romero starts 2010, unless traded, and should be able to make 33+ starts. Brett Cecil starts 2010, unless he's beaten out for the position, but will be on an inning limit once again (approx. 180). Jesse Litsch should return mid-season and will be on a possible inning limit as well as in 2011.

Scott Richmond may start, if not traded, but will have an inning limit. Brian Tallet might start, but will be inning limited also. David Purcey can start, if he learns control, and should not be inning limited. Brad Mills and Robert Ray might learn to pitch at this level and will also be limited.

We may not have enough money to fill all the holes through free agency. As a result, we would fall back on trades to fill holes. Who do we use for trades?

TamRa - Sunday, September 13 2009 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#206074) #

"He has taken to instruction and uses the whole field now, and his BP round is all to center and right-center field. He has power to all fields. He's also a real leader, a natural leader for us. He's an easy guy to root for."

I know I do. One of my founder wishes considering the Jays' prospects is that BD will come up and prove the naysayers wrong.

I have a short list of "pet prospects" I especially root for and he's on it.

2009 Minor League Season - Impressions | 36 comments | Create New Account

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