Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Affiliates Looking to Finish Strong

A 3-3 record on a Friday night is reason to celebrate. There is just over a week remaining in the minor league regular season, so it's time for prospects to leave a positive impression going into the off-season.

Reno 6 Las Vegas 0

Davis Romero, much better suited to the bullpen, was roughed up again in a start and allowed four runs in five innings. He also allowed two homers. Bill Murphy's struggles continued with two runs allowed in two innings. Edward Buzachero worked two scoreless innings. The offense managed just five hits. JP Arencibia went 1-for-4 with the only extra base hit, a double. Kevin Howard went 1-for-3. Angel Sanchez was 1-for-2 with two walks. Brian Dopirak went 1-for-3 with a walk.

New Hampshire 6 Portland 2

Kenny Rodriguez continues to finish the year strong with one run allowed in six innings. He allowed just three hits and two walks, while striking out eight. Leon Boyd struggled out of the pen but Zach Dial worked a scoreless inning to end the game. Darin Mastroianni had another nice game with two hits and two steals. Brad Emaus also nabbed two bases and went 1-for-3 with two runs scored and an RBI. Nick Gorneault drive in three runs and was 2-for-4.

Dunedin 3 Lakeland 2

Minor league vet Vince Bongiovanni has been a life saver in Dunedin this year and he had another nice game on Friday night. Bongiovanni allowed just two runs in six hits and no walks over 6.1 innings. He added six Ks. Matt Daly pitched 1.1 innings and recorded all his outs via the strikeout. Alan Farina finished up the game with a scoreless ninth and he struck out the side. Tyler Pastornicky and John Tolisano each had two hits. Eric Thames went 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Matt Luizza went 1-for-3.

Lansing 5 Dayton 1

Lansing defeated Dayton behind the strong pitching of Joel Carreno. The right-hander allowed just four hits in seven innings, but he did walk three batters. One run scored against Carreno and he struck out nine batters. Yorman Mayora finished the game with two scoreless innings. Offensively, Michael McDade continued to swing the hot bat with a 2-for-4 day. Welinton Ramirez has really enjoyed his promotion to Lansing and he went 1-for-4 with his fifth double in eight games. Justin McClanahan went 2-for-4 with a stolen base. Kenny Wilson had a hit and stole a bag. Yohermyn Chavez went 0-for-4 with two Ks.

Batavia 9 Auburn 7

The bullpen struggled for Auburn. Evan Crawford started the game and allowed two runs in 5.1 innings. Josh Wells, though, allowed four runs in one innings, while Dan Miller allowed on run in just one-third of an inning for the blown save. Zach Anderson allowed two runs in one inning for the loss. At the plate, Sean Ochinko went 4-for-5 with a double, RBI and two runs scored. Ryan Schimpf went 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBI. Markus Brisker broke out of his season-long slump with three hits and a stolen base. Kevin Nolan, and Yan Gomes each had two hits. Gomes smoked his 20th double in 51 games. Rehabbing Jon Del Campo went 0-for-5 with three Ks.

GCL Yankees 2 GCL Jays 0 (Eight innings, rain)

The baby Jays were no-hit in a rain-shortened game. Gustavo Pierre had the roughest day with three Ks in as many plate appearances. Kevin Denis-Fortier was the only player to get on-base and that was via a walk. Robert Ray made a rehab appearance and pitched one inning. Ross Buckwalter also made a rehab appearance with one inning pitched. Nestor Molina finished the game up by allowing one run in five innings. He walked one, allowed three hits and struck out four batters.

Three Stars:
3. Matt Daly for recording all four of his outs via the K
2. Joel Carreno for one run in seven innings of work
1. Sean Ochinko, for four hits

Posted by Marc Hulet on Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 09:39 AM EDT.

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Mike Green - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#205682) #

Pastornicky is at .274/.339/.351, and a solid W/K and good SB numbers, for the season. For a 19 year old shortstop in the Midwest League and FSL, this is excellent.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#205683) #

I haven't seen any comments on Friday night's game, so I'll put this here.

Another one run loss is irritating, but I've gotten used to that. What was especially galling, though, was that the Red Sox spent the evening throwing at the Blue Jays' heads with no response. Then in the eighth, Snider slides into Varitek with the tippy-tip of his tippytoes, so as not to inconvenience Jason in his effort to catch the ball and apply the tag. I suppose Snider then apologized: "I'm sorry, Mr. Varitek, sir, I hope I didn't scratch your nice shinguards there."

Lord, this team is hard to watch.

92-93 - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#205684) #

It would have been harder for me to watch if I saw our 21 year old, franchise player risking injury and barreling into the catcher in the last week of August when you are 15 games out of a playoff spot. That was the right spot for a hook slide; you run through the catcher when the ball badly beats you to the plate.

westcoast dude - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#205685) #

Snider will also learn to lay off the high Papelbon heaters. Ian Browne of MLB.com writes, "Jonathan Papelbon has become the tantalizer to his opponents this season. He sets them up for pivotal rallies and then takes the air out of them by making the pitches when he truly needs them." In point of fact, he reminds me of B.J. Ryan last season: slowly losing his effectiveness and skating on thin ice. Smoke and mirrors will only get you so far: at some point, maybe today or tomorrow, the logjam will break, and Humpty Dumpty will have a great fall.

PeterG - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#205686) #

Kenny Rodriguez has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts at AA. Someone will likely suggest that this is to be taken with a grain of salt due to his age(24). Being that he is a pitcher(often mature later) and in his 2nd year in NA, I would postulate that he can now be considered a genuine mid level prospect with a chance to make it to the show.

TamRa - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#205687) #

Kenny has been one of my sleepers since last year.

This year I'll add to the sleeper list Mr. Robert Bell who's dominated since moving to the rotation, albeit his a bit old at that level he's been very good.

Dewey - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#205688) #

The replay seemed to suggest that Snider took a pretty good thump: his head seemed to bounce a bit as he landed on his tail-bone. I was actually a bit worried about his back. Not long ago that had him on the DL.

PeterG - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#205689) #

Does anyone else think we should package 2/3 decent pitching prospects for a good major league ready(hopefully blocked by an incumbent) ss. I really like Pastornicky as a prospect who might be the guy down the road but I don't think it would be wise to gamble on just one guy when we appear to have an abundance of pitching from which to trade. Maybe try to package League with a prospect from AA & A?

pooks137 - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#205690) #

Maybe try to package League with a prospect from AA & A?

Would you trade a ready-for-prime time version of Justin Jackson for a middle reliever plus? Players like League are a dime-a-dozen unless he figures out how to be nasty more consistently, and even then, he won't have much value until he actually racks up some saves to pad the stats.

PeterG - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#205691) #

If your system is lacking young pitching and you have an extra ss, yes there could easily be a team that would do this.

Jim - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#205692) #

If your system is lacking young pitching and you have an extra ss, yes there could easily be a team that would do this.

Half the teams in the league don't have one shortstop or legitimate shortstop prospect. Who has an 'extra'?

Mylegacy - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#205693) #

Marc - Sanchez any shot to replace Scoots? Reasonable average, reasonable OBP, no speed (ie no steals), no power, OK defense?

Ozzieball - Saturday, August 29 2009 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#205694) #

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pagePCLpeak.php

His peak-adjusted DT (his statistics adjusted for both league and age) come across as 253/310/367, and an EQA of .236. Not someone you want to be your everyday starter at SS.

TamRa - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#205695) #

Half the teams in the league don't have one shortstop or legitimate shortstop prospect. Who has an 'extra'?

The Dodgers, though it's anyone's guess whether Hu will be a decent major league SS

Texas, though Arias is an even longer shot.

Milwaukee, though the incumbant is the one who'll go.

Jim - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#205696) #

Exactly. League and another pitcher aren't bringing back Hardy unless you are talking about someone who is already in the major league rotation.

TamRa - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#205701) #

Dunno, it's hard to judge what Hardy's value is.

In a vacuum it wouldn't be really high and League's "potential" would probably go a long way....but with so few options out there, even a guy coming off a pretty down year has more value than he normally would.

Still, League and Mills might do it, League and Purcey if they think they can fix Purcey

Might could use someone lower like Alverez if you were willing to risk giving up a guy that young.

Also, if Cito has a beef with Accardo, I'd rather try to get them to like Accardo as League. As frustrating as League is, it's even more frustrating to have a perfectly good commodity go to waste because the manager won't use him.

Jays2010 - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#205702) #

Exactly. League and another pitcher aren't bringing back Hardy unless you are talking about someone who is already in the major league rotation.

I don't know about that; League and another pitcher wouldn't bring back Alicides Escobar, that's for sure. And finding a SS in general will be extremely difficult without some luck. But JJ Hardy isn't worth, for example, League and someone like Scott Richmond, is he? I'd have to believe he is worth much less than that. But considering the lack of potentially quality SS options in the majors, maybe Hardy is worth a ton.

As was mentioned in another thread, perhaps trading Adam Lind makes sense. However, I wouldn't do it for prospects. Instead of targeting a team with an excess at SS (since not many teams have a SS surplus), I'd rather the Jays target a team with an extra CF like the Rockies. Carlos Gonzalez has had a nice 170 AB's for the Rockies and is still very young. And hopefully acquiring someone like him would finally move Wells to a corner OF spot. I'm not sure if Lind is too much or too little for Gonzalez and the Rockies don't necessarily need a LF, but I think it's critical that the Jays start addressing the gaping holes they will have after 2011 in important positions. CF, SS, 3B, C (though JPA is still a wildcard at this point), #1 starter, closer...I think the Jays will be fine in the #2-5 rotation spots and in middle relief (and quite possibly closer as well) as well as 1B/DH/LF/RF/2B. But there are 4 critical spots in the lineup as well as an ace that needs to be replaced...the Rockies seem to be underutilizing Gonzalez and have Fowler as their CF for the next few years...I'm not sure what he'd take to acquire, but I'd hope he is someone the Jays look at...

zeppelinkm - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#205703) #

I don't think Richmond and League would land you Hardy. Maybe League and Romero. And not Davis...

Hardy is far from a super elite talent. But he is entering his age 27 season next year, and he has posted two mid 20 HR seasons. He still has value. The wild card for me is his defence. I don't get to see many Brewers games (ok... virtually none, unless I happen to tune into Peach Tree while a Braves - Brewers game is on) so I don't really have a feeling for it. If he can play a capable SS until he's 31 or 32 he certainly has a lot more value than if he'll have to be moved to 3B in a couple years.

PeterG - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#205704) #

Some of you are underestimating the value of prospects. Surely that was obvious at the trade deadline. The Jays have many tradeable pitching prospects at the AA and A level. If Alvarez was offered for Hardy, I think it would be taken without any further negotiation but I don't think the Jays would offer that. For Alvarez you would need a higher ceiling return coming back. We could get something done with 2 good prospects not named Alvarez(say Higgins and Carreno) for example plus a League or Accardo. I think you could get a very good position player(much better than Hardy) for that.

Jim - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#205705) #

If you called the Brewers and offered Alvarez for Hardy you'd hear a fit of laughter and then a dial tone.

Alvarez is an interesting prospect and all but you aren't getting a legitimate major league shortstop who is under control for 2 more years for him.

Richmond has been a great suprise and a wonderful free talent pick up, but he has little trade value because pedigree matters. It doesn't really matter anyway because Toronto is hardly in a position to trade somewhat established players who make the league minimum for players who make a lot of money.

Hardy is a huge question mark, but there are so few available shortstops that his value is artificially inflated.

Jim - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#205706) #

According to Fangraphs Hardy was worth 4.9 WAR in 2008 when he was 25. Even as bad as he's been this year he was worth 1.4 WAR by their estimation.

He's coming into his age 27 season and the defensive reputation as always matched the numbers.

If you want J.J. Hardy you need to make something a lot better then Brandon League the centerpiece of a deal.

PeterG - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#205707) #

Quite frankly Jim , I find the only thing laughable to be your responses in this thread. I am not usually one to criticize but I think that many of your posts over the last few weeks seemto be aimed at provocation(in a negaive sense) and nothing else. I am certain the Jays can find better than Hardy and that they can do it without having to give up Alvarez.

Schad - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#205708) #

With Sean Ochinko doing unspeakable things to baseballs in Auburn, and splitting time between C/1B/DH (18/13/13 games, respectively), what level is he likely to end up at next season, and what position is he likely to fill going forward? The Jays have a surplus of mediocre quasi-prospects between Lansing and Dunedin at the moment, and Carlos Perez has probably earned a chance at low-A. Given that he'll be 23, should Ochinko go straight to high-A, or play musical chairs with Perez et al in Lansing?

PeterG - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#205709) #

I will not be surprised if Ochinko gets an opportunity at High A but if at 1b, he will be battling McDade for playing time. Could still work out though as either can dh and Ochinko might do some catching depending upon who else is there(Jiminez?). As for which position he will settle at going forward, Icannotanswerand at this point theJays may have not yet decided. Sure looks like a good hitter,

Thomas - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#205710) #

I am certain the Jays can find better than Hardy and that they can do it without having to give up Alvarez.

Peter, I think you're wrong on this point. The Brewers wouldn't take Alvarez for Hardy. I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong on this point, but JJ Hardy is still one of the better young shortstops in baseball. You aren't getting him for Alvarez and if Jim's exactly right about how valuable young shortstops are.

Look at some of the shortstops who have the most games started or who are currently starting for playoff contenders. Red Sox: Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez. Twins: Nick Punto and Orlando Cabrera. Cubs: Ryan Theriot (not quite a contender now, but still). San Fransisco: Edgar Renteria.

Do you honestly believe that none of these teams would offer more than Alvarez for a major league shortstop under their control for at least two seasons?

PeterG - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#205711) #

It appears that the Jays couldn't get a prospect much better than Alvarez in an offer for Halladay, so no I don't agree. It may be that at this particular point in time the value of a ss has surpassed the value of a starting pitcher but if so it doesn't seem evident in the draft where, if anything, pitching seems overvalued. Perhaps I simply do not agree with your high assessment of Hardy and you do not agree with my valuation of Alvarez. I remain unconvinced that Hardy will net a better return than Alvarez or the other package I suggested. I do concede, however, that I may be underestimating the present value of a ss . I shall study it further .

Jim - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#205712) #

I am certain the Jays can find better than Hardy and that they can do it without having to give up Alvarez.

I'm sorry but you are just wrong. They might be able to do better then Hardy, but they aren't doing better then Hardy giving up Alvarez or less.

Hardy is an above average defensive major league shortstop who doesn't cost that much and is going into his age 27 season. Alvarez is a pitcher who isn't striking out 7 per 9 in the Midwest League and has a good ERA because he never gives up a HR.

Jim - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#205713) #

It appears that the Jays couldn't get a prospect much better than Alvarez in an offer for Halladay, so no I don't agree.

If the reports on what the Red Sox offered are true, it's certainly appears to be the exact opposite of this. It certainly appears they at least some combination of Buchholz/Anderson/Masterson/Bowden/+ lesser prospects.

Hardy was a 5 win player at shortstop when he was 25 years old. I think you are severely underestimating just how in demand he is going to be.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#205714) #

If Halladay's value continues to decline, the Jays' failure to negotiate a deal for him in July will be another sorry chapter in the team's recent history. Personally, I think the idea of garnering a king's ransom for Doc in the off-season is just about done. In fact, I would be surprised if JP gets even one top-20 prospect for him (Smoak, Feliz, Escobar, Brown, Bumgarner--someone of that calibre).

A lot will depend on how he performs over the next month, but I see the modest packages obtained by Minnesota and Cleveland for Santana and Lee as far more likely than the Brown/Drabek/Happ and Holland/Smoak/Borbon-type deals that JP was setting as his baseline in July. IMO Doc's value probably peaked during those brilliant starts in the two weeks before the deadline.

My guess is that JP's inexperience in making high-stakes deadline deals probably factored into the equation (all that public posturing, failing to read the market, waiting too long to pull the trigger). Meanwhile, Billy Beane did the prudent thing and made a preemptive strike, dealing Holliday for Wallace and two prospects a week ahead of the deadline.

Jays2010 - Sunday, August 30 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#205715) #

My guess is that JP's inexperience in making high-stakes deadline deals probably factored into the equation (all that public posturing, failing to read the market, waiting too long to pull the trigger). Meanwhile, Billy Beane did the prudent thing and made a preemptive strike, dealing Holliday for Wallace and two prospects a week ahead of the deadline.

The thing with Wallace (and Laporta last year) is that even though they are blue chip prospects, they are blue chippers that their respective teams could afford to trade. Wallace is really a 1B (one scout went so far as to say he "throws like a girl") and Laporta is a 1B/LF who was blocked by Braun/Fielder. And, quite frankly, the Jays would have been better off with 3 decent assets (such as Rolen/Freddy Sanchez and Matt Holliday) than one super-asset like Doc. Teams simply aren't willing to gut their farm systems/major league rosters for a franchise pitcher, even for two playoff runs. Look at the subpar deal (in my opinion) that the Indians made for Lee. This isn't necessarily JP's fault...perhaps he was sincere in his belief that the Jays could have made a run in 2010 with Doc (though that seems awfully tough to hope for at this point). If someone wants Halladay next year, I'm sure one blue chip position player and a couple of B prospects will be offered; but it never was going to be a Bedard-type raiding of a team. Would the Rangers even trade Feliz for Doc straight up in the offseason? I doubt it...

TamRa - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#205719) #

A lot will depend on how he performs over the next month

Um...dude.

that's f'n INSANE.

Unless, OF COURSE, he is found to be injured, not one - NOT ONE - baseball professional is going to dismiss Doc's career history in light of one or even two ordinary months.

You might be right that the value of blue-chip prospects is so over-rated at this point that no one will turn lose of there kids BUT that will NOT be a reflection of Doc's August sudenly erasing the widely held opinion that he's one of the 2 or 3 best in the game.

TamRa - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 03:12 AM EDT (#205721) #

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2009_08_30_renaaa_lvgaaa_1&t=g_box&did=milb

Who the heck is this guy and what did he do with David Purcey?

A nine-inning three-hit shutout and ZERO walks (against five K's)??? WHAT??

And at home, no less

JPA went 3/4 with 2 homers
Dopirak still purring along too (.350 in last 10)

greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#205723) #

"Unless, OF COURSE, he is found to be injured"

This is premised on the idea that either Doc (a) is injured or (b) will continue to be his old self, i.e. a dominant ace. It's possible that he's more or less healthy but is simply slowing down a bit or losing some stuff. Now, many teams would be interested in 200+ innings of a slightly-depreciated Doc. But will they give up frontline talent to get him? My guess is that opposing GMs now know they can drive a hard bargain with JP, and will push hard for a package of middling-to-good, but not great prospects.

Jim - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#205724) #

that's f'n INSANE.

If he keeps pitching poorly teams are going to be afraid that he's hurt. He's been so good so long that if he keeps getting beat up teams will be scared to death something is very wrong.

I don't feel like running the numbers right now but trading Rolen at the deadline and then Rios leaving soon after has made the defense much poorer and it feels as though the pitching has been much worse since then so there may be some correlation. Certainly doesn't explain everything that has happened to Halladay since but it certainly isn't going to help.

Jim - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#205725) #

I did this in partially in my head so it might not be exact.

Pre July 31 4.5 RA per game

July 31 and after 5.6 RA per game

Jim - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#205726) #

A word of caution for those that think the Jays should go all in to compete in 2010.

Against Boston/New York/Tampa

10-31 155 RS 217 RA

Pythag 14-27 .350

Against Rest of League

48-39 449 RS 380 RA

Pythag 50-37 .575

Seems they are mostly 'unlucky' against the three really good teams in the division.

China fan - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#205732) #

re Halladay: an interesting statistic dug up by Jordan Bastian is the following: Halladay is 93-38 in the 1st half and 51-36 in the 2nd half for his career.

In other words, Doc has always traditionally done much better in the 1st half than in the 2nd half. Maybe his level of brilliance simply can't be sustained for every week of a full season. Or there could be other explanations -- I'd welcome your theories.

But given his career tendency to tail off somewhat in the 2nd half, maybe we shouldn't be too astonished by his mini-slump in the 2nd half of this season.

John Northey - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#205739) #

Glurg. The Jays are a strong playoff team vs everyone else, but suck vs Boston/NYY/TB? Sheesh. How do we get moved to the AL Central?

As to Halladay... ERA by month
April: 4.13
May: 3.21
June: 3.57
July: 3.31
August: 3.96
September: 2.51

No real strong pattern, although that is a nice figure for September.

zeppelinkm - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#205743) #

And Doc's career ERA is 3.48... and now if you take the two outlier months, April and September, add them together and divide by 2, you get a nice not surprising 3.32 ERA average (horribly simplified, I know, I have no idea what the inning variation is between Apr - Sep, probably definitely a heavier weight on April) which is well, pretty much average for Doc!

Jays2010 - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#205746) #

A word of caution for those that think the Jays should go all in to compete in 2010.

Against Boston/New York/Tampa

10-31 155 RS 217 RA

Pythag 14-27 .350

Against Rest of League

48-39 449 RS 380 RA

Pythag 50-37 .575

Seems they are mostly 'unlucky' against the three really good teams in the division.

Yes, Jim...this is the problem this year...just like they have a crappy bullpen this year and you explained how many of the teams underperforming their run differential/3rd order record have this same bullpen problem. But last year (or every year in general) was this a trend? The Jays had an elite 'pen and were still "unlucky". This just seems to be an excercise in finding a reason why the Jays are unlucky...but it is just an after-the-fact guess. Last year the Jays underperformed their Pythag. because (hmm, they weren't total garbage against the division, they had a strong bullpen)...they couldn't hit! I've figured it out! Of course, even their "lack" of hitting still gave them a +100 run differential....which should have been enough for 90+ wins. I guess they couldn't "hit in the clutch"...

Really, if the Jays want to contend in 2010 they have to address the black holes in their lineup, espescially in the post Rolen/Rios era. That means addressing SS, C, 3B and one corner OF/DH position (I personally believe that Snider and Ruiz should not be expected to comprise 2/9th's of the starting lineup - I'd prefer to consider those two a "platoon"). If the Jays management listen to your reasons as to why they should not attempt contention in 2010, they really should just get advice from Richard Griffin as to why JP and friends should be canned.

Jim - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#205747) #

This just seems to be an excercise in finding a reason why the Jays are unlucky

Not it at all. If you want to make the playoffs you have to start by finishing ahead of 2 of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. If they are outscoring you by 60 runs head to head in 41 games you've got a lot of ground to make up. When you have already made your team weaker since much of that differential was compiled you've got even more ground to make up.

Spifficus - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#205751) #

It's an interesting thought. I wonder if this (under-performing the pythag against the beasts of the east) has been an issue beyond this year. Otherwise, I'd worry about it being a confirmation bias generated from a seductively small sample. I wonder if some of the more luck-variable games might explain it better (walk-off record, extra innings, and 1-run games).

Jim - Monday, August 31 2009 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#205752) #

I looked at it quickly. 2008 is the same if not worse.

Boston 9-9 91/60
New York 9-9 82/65
Tampa 7-11 64/64

Without doing the math it's probably 6 or 7 games off against those three teams.

2007 New York 8-10 82/87
Boston 9-9 79/91

So maybe 1 game in the other direction in 2007.

China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2009 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#205758) #

John, thanks for the month-by-month ERA numbers on Halladay. Guess I was wrong to see a pattern from his W-L numbers. Maybe he just had a lot less run support in the second half of the season -- which might be part of a broader pattern of the Jays turning apathetic and indifferent when they fall out of playoff contention in the second half of every recent season.... Maybe even Doc finds it harder to get motivated in the second half.... although the September ERA does seem to bely that theory.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2009 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#205763) #

Wouldn't be surprised if August is the worst for non-contending teams when it comes to motivation. There is still a lot of season to go, but you know you aren't making the playoffs baring a miracle. You've been playing a long time and the trade deadline is past thus you figure you're stuck where you are. The heat gets bad, the spouse is tired at home with the kids after over a month away from school, and you just want to lay down and sleep. Wait, that is more like how I feel at times :P

Still, it would apply to ballplayers as well. September would bring the knowledge that the season is almost over and it is time for a final push to make your year look good. To have some good feelings going into the offseason. Eh, its a theory.

Spifficus - Thursday, September 03 2009 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#205797) #

I looked at it quickly. 2008 is the same if not worse.

This is such an intriguing notion. Are they losing more games late, either through giving up late runs or not getting the number of comebacks they 'should'? Are we beating up on #5 guys? How does this discrepancy break itself down? Is there anything to learn from them, or is it just a mish-mash of things that points to bad luck? The only thing I now know is that I'm going to have to pony up for a Baseball Reference subscription at some point since I don't know if the answers are there without the advanced searches of the play index.

Matthew E - Thursday, September 03 2009 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#205799) #

It just occurred to me to wonder... there's nobody left in the Jays' minor league system drafted by Gord Ash, is there? It's all been turned over since then?

John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2009 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#205802) #

I found one guy, although he has left and come back since. Manuel Mayorson played first in Medicine Hat in 2000. He has yet to reach the majors. He is a utility infielder who played a few games in AA for the Jays and a few more in AAA for Florida. Not sure if he is still here right now.

If you can live with a guy who pitched a little (7 games) a few years ago in the majors we have Davis Romero was signed in 1999 although he didn't pitch in the regular minors until 2002 (probably in the Dominican summer leagues or something before that).

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