Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Jays take 2 of 3 from AL West Leader

Hey, gotta take the positive wherever you can these days!

Yesterdays box score is here.
Other news includes...
Girardi squashes talk of Burnett-Posada conflict
Rice misquoted? Rivalry to blame, HOFer claims - Jim Rice doing his best bitter old man impression
Red Sox’s chances of signing Wagner in doubt - Wagner not interested in Sox as he doesn't want to be a setup man

So, we've been going through from frustrating times - the Jays and the fans. Thought we should look for what is good at the moment and provides hope for 2010 (figure many others will cover what will not give us hope).

Cheap wins: where a guy goes under 6 innings or gives up more than 3 runs and gets a win anyways. Total of 7 for the team with no pitcher getting more than 2 (Roy Halladay & Ricky Romero)
Tough losses: quality start but loss comes his way anyways. Total of 10 for the team, 3 each for Tallet & Halladay while 4 others got 1 each.
Why this is a positive: shows that the staff has still been unlucky and their W-L isn't always a good indicator.
Why this is a negative: shows how annoying our offense has been, again.

Team Record in starts: Guys with over 500 team records when they start: Halladay (duh), Romero, and Cecil with Romero having the best team record. Given these 3 are likely to be in the rotation in 2010 this is good news, especially for the kids. The team doesn't normally win unless you go deep and do well given the cheap wins/tough loss figures. Bad news is for Marc Rzepczynski who they are just 3-6 when starting despite his 120 ERA+. His 2 unearned runs aren't enough to cover it, but odds are the fact Rzep hasn't gone more than 6 1/3 yet is. Kid has to learn to throw strikes more often. Scott Richmond has seen a 500 team record btw.

Quality Starts: Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Marc Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond, and Brett Cecil all have over 1/2 their starts as quality ones (6+ IP, 3 or fewer ER) with Romero & Halladay over 60%. For comparison the Yankees have 3 guys over 50%, just AJ over 60% (guess he learned a lot from Halladay) while the Red Sox have 3 over 60% (Lester, Beckett, Wakefield) but no more over 50%. Tampa has 2 over 50%, 1 at 60%. I'd say this is a good plus going forward.

You'll notice not a lot is said about Brian Tallet. Largely because A) he hasn't been that good and B) he is not likely to get a lot of starts in 2010, if any, unless the team is injured like they are this year.

Of the big 5 listed in the QS list only Halladay is over 30 (32) with Richmond the only other one over 24 at 29 years old. We have a young staff who are doing very, very well vs what the big 3 in our division have.

So, what about offense?
We have a 100 OPS+ which is a big improvement from 2008's 94 and 2007's 95 but still a long ways away from 2006's 108. What hope does it have of improvement?
Kids... (ie: under 27)
Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Edwin Encarnacion (just 26) are all regulars now and will be in 2010. Only Encarnacion is a downgrade vs what we were playing before.
In prime years (27-31)...
Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Randy Ruiz, Joe Inglett. Not as good a group, with just Wells and Hill locks for 2010 (one a woohoo and one ... not).
Decline time (32+)...
Rod Barajas, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scutaro, Kevin Millar, Raul Chavez, John McDonald. Scary that McDonald and Millar are likely to get even worse, thankfully neither is signed for 2010. Only Overbay is signed from this group and his 129 OPS+ is just fine to keep around anyways and it should be OK even with a decline to the 110-119 range. Barajas should be allowed to leave (68 OPS+), as should Scutaro if he asks for too much (great OPS+ of 118 but 96 is his previous high so I'd expect serious regression in 2010). Millar, Chavez, and McDonald will all vanish into the sunset unless they take a AAA contract one hopes.

So just one decliner on contract vs 3 kids and 2 primes giving us 3 slots to figure out for 2010 - catcher, shortstop, DH. Ruiz has been nice as the DH so far (138 OPS+) but I sure wouldn't count on him keeping it up. JP Arencibia has talent but I sure wouldn't count on him. Angel Sanchez has done well in AAA this year, but again not a guy to count on.

So on the positive note we do have kids in regular positions, a couple in their prime who are signed (one good, one not good contract), and just one decliner who is locked up for 2010. For comparison the Yankees have tons of talent but their CA/SS/3B/LF/DH are all on the wrong side of 32. Of course a team OPS+ of 117 can suffer a lot of age related decline with no ill effect overall. Boston has 4 positions like that and just a 101 OPS+ overall (wow, the Jays are almost hitting as well as the Sox - who'd have thunk). Sadly Tampa has just 2 guys over 30, just one at 32 and a team OPS+ of 105 which is likely to stay strong in 2010. ::Shakes head:: must stay positive somehow!

OK, so the offense has needs. But at least only one bad contract locked in and one of the offensive holes (catcher) has just free agents in the majors and at least a couple of prospects in the minors who are known for their defense. Our offense is likely to improve for the 2nd straight year, while 2 of the big 3 are not as likely to improve given age of lineup. We have starting pitching up the wazoo and it is young and (largely) left handed with help coming in 2010 (Marcum, maybe McGowan).

Nothing much new here, but hope is there if you look for it. Of course, it would help more if the Jays moved to the AL Central or NL Central or NL East or if the playoff structure was shifted to an NHL/NBA model but at least we should see lots of short games in 2010 with a killer young pitching staff (outside of Rzep starts where 100's of pitches could be thrown by the home side although a good result could still occur). Plus, of course, no more 'Rios moments' to endure.

Posted by John Northey on Monday, August 24 2009 @ 12:42 PM EDT.

Jays take 2 of 3 from AL West Leader | 103 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

92-93 - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#205498) #

It's hard to follow the team on a daily basis now. Sitting in the Dome yesterday I WANT the Jays to win, but I also want to look up at the end of the season and see that #8 overall draft pick. As a fan I find myself watching the individuals as opposed to caring what the team does collectively.

China fan - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#205499) #

Thanks for the interesting analysis, John. You could be even more positive about 2010 -- you forgot to mention Litsch as another potential addition to the stacked deck for rotation spots. There is plenty of room for optimism about 2010 if only the Jays ownership would FINALLY bring itself to invest in this team -- invest in an extension for Halladay, a new contract for Scutaro, a stronger catcher and a free-agent DH and/or 3B.

Speaking of which -- you declare that EE "will" be the 3B next year. Are you certain that there's no chance for a replacement, either by trade or by free agency?

VBF - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#205500) #

Ditto the individual accomplishment support. Pulling for Doc's Cy Young campaign, Romero's ROY campaign and thinking how awesome it would be to have a 35 home run second baseman (dude!) and one who's contract includes a gazillion team options. And really glad to see Snider making good at bats.

But for some reason I can't root for those guys more than I am for Ruiz. Not only is this guy just a generally nice person but I'm getting a Moonlight Graham/The Rookie vibe from him. Growing up across from Yankee Stadium (where his grandma still lives!) and playing the game because he loves it. He's remindimg me why this game really is special. He's a completely longshot to be on this team next year but in just a few weeks he's not doing anything to warrant a demotion. (Of course he's probably loaded with roids but..)

Mick Doherty - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#205501) #

(Of course he's probably loaded with roids but..)

I trust you have some sort of valid reason for posting that. If so, what? It's certainly not funny if it's just a throwaway line. Too much by too many, and all that.,

Spifficus - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#205502) #

I trust you have some sort of valid reason for posting that.

He had two PED suspensions in the minors.

Jevant - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#205504) #

Didn't he get busted for them a few years back? I assume that's why the joke.

I like Ruiz, and it'd be great to see him succeed, but if he is the primary DH heading into next year, this team will be in trouble.

Forkball - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#205505) #

In prime years (27-31)...

Isn't a players prime at age 27, making the prime years more like 25-29 than including 30-31?

VBF - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#205507) #

I trust you have some sort of valid reason for posting that. If so, what? It's certainly not funny if it's just a throwaway line. Too much by too many, and all that.,

Career minor leaguer who's been passed by by team after team, exploding onto the scene at age 32? I'm having my doubts, PED suspensions prior to or not. Every player's a suspect for using PEDs.

Denoit - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#205509) #

I would love to see the playoff format changed for sure. Shorten the season and have 6 teams make it. I havnt really thought of format, but top teams would be given an advantage of some sort. The top teams from each division plus the remaining 3 best records. If the season ended today the american leauge playoff teams would be, New York, Detroit, Anaheim, Boston, Texas and Tampa Bay. All of those team are very good, and anyone could win. I think it would keep more fans interested.

Maybe something like 1vs6 , 2vs5, and 3vs4 ...top team reaming gets a bye to the league finals. (some could argue a bye really isnt an advantage) but still 6 teams would be great if they could figure it out.

Mick Doherty - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#205510) #

NYY and ANA (best records in the AL) get a first-round bye. BOS v. DET and TEX v. TAM; best record of the winner gets ANA, worst gets NYY. winners advance to ALCS.

Assuming five-game series in the first round, seven in each of the next two and a seven-game schedule for the following World Series, you're looking at needing to shorten the season by about a week. You could do that by reintroducing doubleheaders to the common schedule and the owners would still make a tonnadough. If they split it with the players, everyone wins ... but actually, I hate the idea. More teams in the playoffs means MLB is even more like the NHL and NFL and <<shudder>> NBA.

I have no memory of MLB before divisional play started, but further devaluing the regular season by expanding the playoff bracket seems ... unwise.

John Northey - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#205511) #

The ages were more to be a map of how growth tends to be viewed. Before 27 you are likely to have your best years ahead of you, up to 32 you should be able to be stable, beyond 32 cliff diving is what your stats could do at any time.

As a reminder, the Bell/Moseby/Barfield outfield of the 80s were all washed up and done by 32 (Bell played a bit beyond but not much). Other Jays to have that happen include Alomar (34), Cruz Jr (32), Green (retired after age 34 season), Willie Upshaw (retired at age 32), Kelly Gruber (done at 31), Sprague (retired at 34 strangely after posting his highest OPS+ ever although in just 107 PA), ...

Basically I'm setting it up so guys who are 28-32 in 2010 are 'prime', 27 and under are 'growth' while over 32's are 'trade now!!!!!!!!!'

John Northey - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#205512) #

Eh, more playoffs = more fun post season imo. The regular season is the real challenge while the post season is for the lighter fans. World Series wins are big but the '85 and '87 teams were far superior to the 92/93 ones, the main differences being luck and managers. Two of the biggest winning teams ever (Cleveland in 1954 and Seattle in 2001) didn't win it all due to a bad week. That tells me all I need to know about the postseason. Fun, but not telling of who really is the best team (especially if you mix in Minnesota in 1987).

Chuck - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#205513) #

Basically I'm setting it up so guys who are 28-32 in 2010 are 'prime'

I'm wondering if this very mindset isn't prevalent among GM's when it comes time to signing first-time free agents, who typically fall in this age range. This mindset is just begging for buyer's remorse, in my opinion.

While we can all find numerous exceptions (no need to quote them to me), I wonder if teams wouldn't be better served to consider 26-28 a player's prime, with the recognition that a descent is more likely than not to happen thereafter. Of course, if your peak is high enough, you can still be plenty valuable during your descent (e.g., an early-30's Vladimir Guerrero was still a terrific hitter if not the same caliber as during his peak).

While Mike Wilner remains bullish on Rios's potential, given his athleticism, I can't help but think that the odds are just not in his favour to "put it all together" next year at age 29. Sure he could improve on this season's 91 OPS+, but a return to his peak? I wouldn't bet my money on it.

TamRa - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#205514) #

Am I the only one who thinks it's distinctly possible Scutaro accepts arbitration if the market is indeed still down?

Ozzieball - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#205515) #

Am I the only one who thinks it's distinctly possible Scutaro accepts arbitration if the market is indeed still down?

I doubt it because after this year he's probably going to at least roll the dice to see if some GM will give him a silly contract based on this year's numbers. If not, then it's unlikely that another team will be willing to surrender their first-round pick for him, and he'll return to the Jays.

westcoast dude - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#205516) #

A slugfest in the making, hey, this is fun!

Something about Randy Ruiz, reminds me of David Ortiz: both came from the Twins, and he must like to win, 'cuz he's smokin' the ball cheez Louise!

lexomatic - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#205517) #

Let me be the alarmist and first to suggest this...
It was just mentioned on the radio broadcast that Halladay has been pushed back a day on his next start, and that he hasn't had his best stuff for awhile.
who wants to speculate on how hurt he is, and whether that had anything to do with shopping him before his value cratered (though this conspiracy theory wouldn't make sense without having accepted the Phillies offer.) I'm trying to relieve the boredom

also I feel sorry for Mets fans... they've had even more serious injuries than my fantasy team.

greenfrog - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#205518) #

"A slugfest in the making, hey, this is fun!"

Speak for yourself--I'm worried about the doctor.

Jays2010 - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#205519) #

Scutaro will in all likelihood regress...but he can regress a little and still be a steal at 3/18, for example. If he plays as he has so far this season for simply 1/2 of 2010 and then returns to being a solid super-utility player for the following 2.5 years, that contract will be fair for both parties. And if he manages to keep up something near his 2009 production for 2/3rds of the contract, it will be a massive steal. I'm not sure why people who presumably want to make a longshot run at contention in 2010 don't want Scoot back, even for a $20 mill commitment - he probably will decline...but he is playing like an MVP candidate right now so even moderate decline will make him a steal...and if the Jays want to attempt for 2010 contention, they will need some things to go right anyway, such as praying that Scoot doesn't fall off a click, as unlikely as that may be...

Now if the Jays don't want to contend in 2010 then let Scoot walk...

Mike Green - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#205520) #

Yeah, 26-28 is prime. On average, by the time a player crosses 30 there is some noticeable decline, with more lost time due to injury being the big item.

Jim - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#205521) #

Scutaro won't take arbitration, the Red Sox alone will drive the market to where he gets paid for mulitple years.

He might get something like 3/18 and I wouldn't want to be holding the bag on that contract unless I've got a 140++ MM payroll.

Jim - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#205522) #

I've been a fan of Scutaro's since he was a Met. But one of these things is not like the others... Scutaro OPS+ since he became more or less 'full-time'
79
85
96
89
87
118

Baseball history warns us against 33 year olds who have seasons that are this far askew from the player's normal performance. Like Theo Epstein lamented on the Lugo contract.. he paid for past performance and should have known he wasn't to get an exact replica.

Jays2010 - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#205523) #

He might get something like 3/18 and I wouldn't want to be holding the bag on that contract unless I've got a 140++ MM payroll.

Why not? His current WAR is at 5.1. He has shown that he can play SS at an elite level. Now obviously he is doing this for the first time in his career in his early 30's which is a huge caveat, but even with defensive and offensive regression he can earn (and quite possibly exceed) $18 million fairly easily. I expect his slugging to take the biggest hit next year...but just watching him and hearing things about how he has changed his plate mechanics and seeing his new-found ridiculous ability to draw BB's, I just think an $18 million gamble in the hopes that he can play somewhere near this level, even if only for one season, is worth it if the goal is to contend in 2010.

the shadow - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#205524) #

Doc's troubles, seem to me, goes back to when he went on the DL for that groin pull.

lexomatic - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#205525) #

shadow, i agree.
i think the only real risk is a compensatory injury. right now his arm is fine. worst case would be blowing it out becasue of compromised mechanics.

lexomatic - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#205526) #

so i was listenign to a bit of the post-game and i only barely caught somethign relating to the team not hitting after the first 3 innings (somethign like 900 ops before then like 500 after or something equally horrible), ovre the last dozen games or so (but the host's impression was that this had been happening for awhile, 80 games or so.)
does anyone have the capabilities (and desire/boredom) to look into that?
i'm just curious if it's a case of the players quitting, or a case of changes in the way the team is pitched and the hitters just not making adjustments?

TamRa - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#205528) #

What a portrait of the frustration of this season:

going into a game in which you want just the small satisfaction of getting Doc a win closer to the CY, and knocking Neimann a win back in the ROY....and finding yourself ahead after 3 innings by a score of 6-3....

Yet Neimann still gets a win and Doc gets a loss (not like either SP deserved a W but still)

Just damn.

rtcaino - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#205529) #

I say expand the play-offs to six teams, and have two divisions per league.

This would have the added benefit of watering down our schedule.

Jays2010 - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#205531) #

I say expand the play-offs to six teams, and have two divisions per league.

This would have the added benefit of watering down our schedule.

To me, this is the best solution. First off, I hate divisions. The same thing in hockey with the Southeast division and a crappy team like Carolina getting the 3rd seed when they should be 8th (or lower if there was a balanced schedule). But half the teams make the playoffs in that league.

6 playoff teams seems reasonable (just like the NFL). 4 is too few and 8 is too many, IMO. FWIW, when asked by Wilner the other day which is the most likeliest between a salary cap, balanced schedule and more playoff teams, JP guessed more playoff teams and I'd have to agree with him. I just don't see the point of any sport in which it is harder to make the playoffs than to win the WS once having made the playoffs. The 2008 Blue Jay team is the perfect example - it had as good a chance as anyone to win the WS if they had made the playoffs (although having Jesse Litsch and Scott Richmond/David Purcey as the 3/4 starters in the playoffs is underwhelming), espescially since they were hot in September and they had possibly the best 1-2 punch in the league with Halladay and Burnett. A change in the playoff format is a lot more important than another $20 million in payroll...and with 6 playoff teams, I'd wager that Halladay already would have signed an extension...

jmoney - Monday, August 24 2009 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#205532) #

Worried about the Doc. Looks like he's pitching hurt. His velocity seems a bit down and he's getting the ball up. He doesn't seem to throw the hammer much anymore either. Just nibbling cutters.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#205533) #

On Scoots - 3/18 sounds about right. IF - it goes past that our ONLY in house option is Angel Sanchez who is 25 and used to be an OK(ish) prospect before he got hurt and missed 2007. He's actually hitting quite well at AAA - MIGHT be for real. Do we want to find out? Further down we've Tyler Pastornicky who seems like the best all-round SS in the system. Jackson should be sent to Lourdes - he needs a miracle with the bat to be anything other than JMac - only picture JMac IF JMac couldn't hit EVEN AS WELL as JMac hits...ugly...I know.

ON Roy - he's clearly hurt/buggered/finished or something... since he came back over a month ago he's been our WORSE starter. Ugh. Could be JP's "Come one, come all, what'll you give me for this kewpie doll that pitches" routine may have shattered Roy's ego/concentration/desire or something. Interestingly - he's been so awful lately that I suspect they couldn't trade him this off-season even if they wanted.

IF - Scoots goes and Barajas goes - and since we didn't sign our first 24 draft picks in 2009 - we'll have EIGHT picks by the end of the third round.. Surely - we could sign one of those? ALSO of interest - we could end up getting somewhere between the 8th and 11th pick. BEAR IN MIND - we get that level pick EVERY round - that's gotta give us something? Surely?

pooks137 - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#205534) #

Could be JP's "Come one, come all, what'll you give me for this kewpie doll that pitches" routine may have shattered Roy's ego/concentration/desire or something.

So now we are blaming JP for Roy pitching poorly, distracted with all the trade deadline line hooplah? This seems to me to be on the Richard Griffin level of absurdity/JP bashing.

What about those yearly articles on Doc's meticulous, OCD-like preparation and concentration? It all dissipates when the going gets tough? I don't think any of us would blame Roy for feeling disheartened and unhappy with the future outlook, but to blame this on JP shopping him at the deadline seems just a lit bit over the top to me.

If Roy is the consummate professional he is supposed to be and I'm sure he is, he shouldn't let the business side of the game affect his on-field performance. He doesn't need to be handled with kid gloves.

Sano - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#205535) #

The tone on this site has been really bad the past couple weeks. The team's in the dumps I know but it doesn't mean that we can't be civil with each other.

brent - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#205536) #

Go to Tango's site to do fan defense evaluation!

The Jays' fans are already way behind some teams.

scottt - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#205538) #

I like Ruiz, and it'd be great to see him succeed, but if he is the primary DH heading into next year, this team will be in trouble.

I don't know. The Jays haven't had a good DH in a long time. Ruiz is cheap and can be signed year to year. If he falters, you can always bring up Dopirak, no?

AWeb - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#205539) #

Not to mention that DH is an under-exploited position, in terms of finding very good hitters. I don't know if Ruiz is a very good hitter, or just a guy on a hot streak, but the average DH usually puches in around an .800 OPS. Toronto is trailing this category again this year thanks to the "contributions" of Millar (.483 OPS in 73 PA). Barring changes to the roster, Lind will be playing a position next year nearly full time, so it's pretty vital to find someone. The Jays have actually gotten pretty good DH production the most of the last few years, with Frank Thomas in 2007, a big mix of guys in 2006 (Hillenbrand..there's a name I hadn't thought of), Catalanotto/Hinske/Hillenbrand in 2005. Last year stunk, as did 2004.

Not a single team has killer DH prodcution this year (Angels/Yankees at the top, OPS around .870), so properly used, the position can provide an actually advantage for the Jays perhaps.

Oh, and watching Tampa smack around Halladay worried me. Maybe he's tipping pitches and Tampa is on to him, or he's just slightly off right now, but Halladay didn't have anything last night. Sit him down and rest him for a start or two if he has any nagging problems. He's not only the best player on the team, but the most valuable resource.

Jim - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#205541) #

I just think an $18 million gamble in the hopes that he can play somewhere near this level, even if only for one season, is worth it if the goal is to contend in 2010.

Spending big money on 34 year olds coming off a career season is a recipe for disaster. The prospects for winning in 2010 are nowhere near high enough for me to start handing big money to 34 year old free agents who have 1 season worth paying for. I can see the logic of bring back Halladay and Scutaro and gunning for one season, but they still need more key upgrades to even dream of winning in 2010. Wells needs to move to a corner and they need a CF. They need to do something about 3b. Catcher can't be a black hole. They would need to upgrade the bullpen. If there isn't another 40 million dollars to spend in the offseason in free agency and trades, I don't see why you'd want to take on Scutaro's age 35 and 36 seasons at 6 million dollars per, there is no way to put enough around him in 2010 to make it worth paying him in 2011 and 2012.

Forkball - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#205542) #

Am I the only one who thinks it's distinctly possible Scutaro accepts arbitration if the market is indeed still down?

Hope so. Given that his salary is currently low and he hasn't put up big numbers that the arbitrators like, I think this is the ideal situation - one year at a modest salary.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#205544) #

As the song goes: "Old Dogs and Children and Watermellon Wine" describe this time just fine. Roy Halladay just doesn't have anything left after JULY. It's probably 50-50 as to whether or not he asks for a trade.

Marco Scutaro is too old, and just too pricey to keep next year. If 35 is the new 40, then 30 is the new 35. We must avoid anyone, but a horse like Halladay, if they're over 32. Young players are usually cheap , hungry, and full of passion - fun to watch. Young player with talent and experience are GOLD - a reason to hope. How long has it been?

John Northey - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#205545) #

Scutaro taking arbitration or leaving via free agency for two draft picks are the two best situations for the Jays. I wouldn't want him for more than a 2 year contact as odds are he'll revert to the 90 OPS+/average at best fielder that he was every season before this one. He is having a big career year and to pay for 3 years for it is foolish.

Now, there aren't a lot of good options out there, but there are plenty of defense first guys who hit for an OPS+ of 60-80 much like McDonald a few years ago who you can get for $1 mil or less. Sign one or two of those to cover 2010/2011 (ideally on one year deals with an option) so you have a backup as well and hope for a kid to emerge from the minors by then. Keep an eye out for bargains too.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#205546) #

Jim - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#205547) #

As it was, he declined more than that for the first two years, but his OPS+ in 2009 is 100.

His problem at this point is that he has the range of a cactus. How bad does your defense have to be when your team will pay you the balance of a huge contract so they can trade for Alex Gonzalez.

Is the National League a Quad A league at this point. Clayton Richard is throwing shutouts, Lugo has a 124 OPS+ with St. Louis, Matt Holliday turned into Babe Ruth, Cliff Lee is on his way to contending for the NL Cy Young.....

Matthew E - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#205548) #

Check me on this. Encarnacion was put on the DL to make room for Downs, right? So the Jays are now carrying 13 pitchers and 12 hitters? (That's counting John McDonald as a hitter, for the purposes of this discussion.) Is there any way that's a good idea?

Chuck - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#205550) #

So the Jays are now carrying 13 pitchers and 12 hitters?

I believe TB is doing the same at the moment. I guess they figure they only need to get away with this for another week, before reinforcements arrive.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#205551) #

Matthew E For 5 days I think its fine, then we get the September Callups.

Sorry to couple this with a separate post, but I have been a little bored at work. I am not one who is of the opinion that the Jays are going to magically have a 100 million dollar payroll next year. I'd love for it to be true mind you, but I guess I'm a skeptic. So given that I got to thinking about the opposite strategy. What if we were only able to go with internal options next season. How would you construct the roster and why.

So my solutions are as follows. FYI I followed the Florida Marlins "sink or swim" mentality and didn't care if they were ready.

My rotation: Halladay, Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Rzepcynski
LRP: Richmond, Tallet
MRP:Carlson, Zach Stewart
Setup: Downs, Fraser
Closer: Accardo

CF: Matroianni
3B: Encarnacion
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
LF: Snider
RF: Wells
DH: Dopirak
C: Arencibia
SS: Sanchez

Bench: Inglett, Jonathan Diaz, Chavez, Coats

Marcum's only listed as the 3 to avoid 3 straight lefties. I keep Richmond and Tallet both as long relievers to give us lots of long relief options. Accardo closes with a view to Zach Stewart moving there (ala Andrew Bailey) if necessary.

Mastroianni finally gives us legit speed at the top of the lineup even if his bat isn't quite there yet. Coats is insurance there as well. Edwin in the 2 hole obviously assumes a return to form next year, and if Snider plays well he and Hill swap places in the lineup (to me Hill is a perfect 5/6 guy). Overbay's gone for any salary relief we can get and Dopirak takes his place for now.

I'm most excited for the speed of Dustin, the development of Lind and Snider as middle order guys, the defense of Jonathan Diaz from time to time, the presence of Arencibia, the rewarding of Dopirak, and the potential of Stewart to emerge as a closer.

Its not like its a high win team, but there's enough there to get me to tune in.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#205553) #

Some cacti cover lots of ground, Jim. :)

The range of your average shortstop does decline with age in the early 30s, of course. There probably is research about how much, but I don't have it at my fingertips. In any event, it is likely that Lugo did decline more than average and it is questionable whether this loss of range more than the norm was foreseeable.

Jim - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#205554) #

In any event, it is likely that Lugo did decline more than average and it is questionable whether this loss of range more than the norm was foreseeable.

I certainly wouldn't expect Scutaro to decline like Lugo did. From where I sit, Scutaro seems like a consumate professional, while Lugo has always had makeup issues. It doesn't mean I want a 35 year old shortstop, especially when I've got NOTHING behind him.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#205556) #

Many seem to forget that Scutaro was rated very poorly at shortstop recently.
Via FanGraphs for seasons with 40+ games at SS (his other seasons were below 20) UZR/150 games
2005: -4.6 (663 innings)
2006: -28.1 (573 innings)
2007: 2.6 (348 innings)
2008: 20.3 (472 innings)
2009: 9.5 (1061 innings so far)

So you have one very ugly season, one very good season, two average seasons, and this season. Given he is 33 I'd expect a decline very soon back to average (I suspect the coaching here has helped a lot thus the rise in his early 30's) and below. The figures are better than I remembered overall though, with just the one super-ugly mixed in.

What about Lugo?
2005: 4.8
2006: -8.0 (free agent after this year)
2007: 4.3
2008: -2.6
2009: -35.9 (!)

Ick. Now _that_ is a quick decline and he is the same age as Scutaro.

lexomatic - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#205557) #

A reasonable offensive projection for Scutaro in 2010 is roughly .280/.340/.400. He has been a good defender at shortstop since arriving in Toronto, and he projects to be at least average there.
I have to disagree with those numbers being a reasonable expectation considering they would be the second best of his career. I would think 270 360 370 would be a reasonable expectation, with a high end of 300 380 400...with average defense. His ability to get on base has always been decent, but I think has improved, and a little bit of power and average increase over previous good seasons (260 340 360) is reasonable. I think the rest of the season is also when we see the Rolen effect come into play. Everyone was just a little bit better because one position (3rd) was great. I'm in agreement with the opinion already expressed that either Scutaro accepts arbitration (or signs a 1 year deal) or leaves and the team gets 2 picks.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#205558) #

Lexo, saying one position was great is underselling the ability of Aaron Hill significantly. He is definitely a great defensive 2B. And for the record, Overbay is definitely "very good", if he isn't considered great with the glove.

Perhaps it was a infield synergy created by the presence of having amongst the best defensive players at their respective positions beside him that aided Scutaro. Perhaps it is Brian Butterfield. We will see.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#205559) #

A reasonable offensive projection for Scutaro in 2010 is roughly .280/.340/.400. He has been a good defender at shortstop since arriving in Toronto, and he projects to be at least average there. In a logical baseball world, this combination of offensive and defensive competence would be a valuable package.

Especially given what else is available. The brutal fact is that among those shortstops who are either free agents or reasonable trade targets, there is only one other guy you could be reasonably confident about approaching that value - JJ Hardy )albeit you could potentially gamble on someone like Hu and strike gold).
There's no one after 2010 but Jeter and Hardy either.

Scarcity of a commodity drives up it's value and it's cost.

So what that means is whoever signs Scoot WILL potentially pay more than his stats are worth in a vacuum because they are paying for a scarce commodity. Scutaro's value isn't just what he produces, but his superiority to, for instance, Alex Gonzalez or whoever the next best alternative is.

There's also the factor of the marginal cost. IF it would cost you $2 million (annually) to sign the second best FA SS, and it would cost you $5 million (annually) to sign Scutaro - then you are paying $3 million a year for the difference in Scuatro and whoever is #2

Let's also note for the record that most of the pathetic SS class this winter is at least as old if not older than Scutaro. Crosby is 30, Green is 30 - they are the youngest.

It doesn't mean I want a 35 year old shortstop, especially when I've got NOTHING behind him.

What we have behind Scutaro is a seperate issue. It would be a failure of planning if the Jays didn't try to add a Hu or an Arias or some other young player who has at least a chance to develop into a competetn player whether we extend Scutaro's stay or sign some slightly younger guy.

The fact is that the market is a barren wasteland - if you don't go get JJ Hardy (at an unknown cost in terms of talent) then you either sign Scutaro and HOPE he holds together reasonably well or you sign some other guy who's ALREADY fallen apart.

Now, having described the ways that Scutaro has value in terms of baseball economics, I agree that what everyone has said here about age and potential decline IS true - but here's the kicker: every GM in baseball can see those facts just like we can - PLUS, every OTHER GM would have to also give up a high draft pick in order to take that gamble.

It's for that reason that I think that there is a not inconsiderable chance that, especially in a depressed market, Scutaro might not get a high-dollar offer before the deadline to accept arbitration...and if that happens he may well consider the plight of Orlando Cabrera and accept.

This would be a best case scenario for us, IMO.

And if he does, you can feel him out about a multi year deal that pays him, for instance, 5-4-4 or maybe 5-5 with a team option for the third year. If he declines, you can still delay the problem for a year and take a run at Hardy or some other solution next winter.

The worst possible situation is that Scutaro is a bench/utility guy in 2012 for the Jays at a price of 5 or 6 million - doing a job that should by rights pay maybe 1-2...which would mean we were "wasting" $4 million that year. Unless we're going down to the $50-60 million neighborhood in payroll, I wouldn't worry too much about that (as a worst case outcome - yes it would be bad if you KNEW it would happen and did it anyway)

Bottom line, for me, is this - given the alternatives on the market, I'm perfectly oka with a deal for Scoot for no more than $12 over 2 seasons, or $15 over three - and I think 2+ an option would be the best case.

A lot of people will say "whoop-de-doo, he'll get more than that elsewhere"

If he does, so be it. But I'm not sure AT ALL that he will.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#205560) #

By the way, when analyzing the collective infield defense, let's remember that EE's defensive issues are almost entierly on the throws. He's no Rolen (no one is) but getting to the balls he's supposed to and catching them isn't the issue and thus it's not like Scutaro suddenly has a lot different context in which to work.

lexomatic - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#205561) #

zeppelin, i wasn't meaning to undersell the other infielders' skills.. just that I consider them to be very good, but Rolen all-time good. Best I've seen (I don't remember the good Gruber years.) Sometimes that one upgrade makes a world of difference. My perception would suggest that the defence took a step forward with teh arrival of Rolen (that could also be the combination on the left side.) Hopefully it doesn't fall off too much. it's not like I was suggesting the whole defence goes to crap (though it apparently has recently.)

Chuck - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#205563) #

it's not like I was suggesting the whole defence goes to crap (though it apparently has recently.)

I wonder if fatigue is starting to take its toll on everbody's defense.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#205564) #

I'd hope fatigue isn't occurring. Scutaro has played more SS than ever before, Hill is recovering from an injury so both of them have reasons. The rest, not so much.

So far Hill has missed just 1 game this season, Scutaro 2, Wells 3, Lind 5. Everyone else has had at least 23 games off (Overbay at 100 of 123 is the most used guy after the big 4 and Rios).

Barajas' 98 games is the 4th highest he has ever played in the majors with him playing more than 108 overall just once (120 in 2005). 6 more games and he passes his highest since that season.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#205565) #

One more thing of note: Cito has used Lind (73 games), Millar (19 games) and Ruiz (12 games) as the DH while everyone else has no more than 2 games in that slot. Obviously Cito hasn't felt like using the DH as a rest area for the players despite having two CF'ers for a big chunk of the season (thus providing an easy semi-rest day for Wells or Rios).

What is interesting looking at the fielding stats is that Inglett didn't get into one game at 2B while he was up, with just 36 innings played by someone other than Hill (32 by McDonald and 4 by Scutaro). A perfect chance to give Hill a day off but not taken. Guess he feels Hill doesn't need it. Given Hill has hit 296/324/510 over the past 28 days I guess he hasn't needed it yet.

FYI: 65 innings off for Wells in CF, 50 for Scutaro at SS.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#205568) #

Leyland has been playing Magglio lately, and even moved him up to #3 last night in the order. He only needs another 65 or so PA for the 18m 2010 option to kick in. Earlier in the year it seemed unthinkable that the Tigers would let him reach that, but he's getting alarmingly close. Are they really planning on paying him 18m next year, or perhaps they have a cut planned right as he approaches the PA threshold (cue MLBPA grievance)? If I'm Dombrowski I'm not too excited about the idea of paying Ordonez, Willis, Bonderman, and Robertson 52.5m in 2010 (and you guys thought the Jays commitments were scary!).

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#205575) #

My $.02 on Scutaro: I haven't been watching closely, but I don't think I recall seeing him go deep into the hole to field a ground ball, the way we used to see J-Mac do it all the time. This doesn't necessarily mean that he can't do it - he just didn't need to while Rolen was here. Rolen had so much range to his left that he picked off everything that would have gone to the hole. This may be why the Jays assumed that Scutaro could handle the everyday SS job.

If the Jays had any hope of contending next year, or had a larger budget to work with, signing Scutaro might be a worthwhile gamble. Even if they have to eat the last year or two of his contract, he might be able to help a team over the top next year, given his OBP. But the Jays are likely to face two or three Dark Years while they reload and/or get sold to new owners. By the time they emerge into the sunshine again - if they ever do - Scutaro will be too old to play shortstop regularly. So it goes.

jmoney - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#205577) #

Dammit Wells. The Jays looked like they were putting together a big inning and he goes and hits into a dp. Why couldn't he have done one of his patented mile high infield flies?

CeeBee - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#205578) #

" Why couldn't he have done one of his patented mile high infield flies?"

He saves those for 2 out or non force situations ;)

jmoney - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#205579) #

I should apologize to Vernon. I didn't realize Cecil was going to be this awful.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#205581) #

Wow, Rios has really continued to slide in Chicago. He's 0 for 3 so far tonight and is down to a Wells-like 258/309/420. I wish Alex the best in the Windy City and hope he finds his mojo again, but right now I'm guessing Ken Williams is having just a wee bit of buyer's remorse.

StephenT - Tuesday, August 25 2009 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#205583) #

"I WANT the Jays to win, but I also want to look up at the end of the season and see that #8 overall draft pick"

Something that's become obvious to me just recently: it's a mistake that the draft in baseball (and especially in hockey) are in reverse-order of finish (or at least probabilistically in reverse order in hockey's case). It should be a lottery every year. That would be fair to every team as the years go by, and there would no longer be a reason for intelligent fans to cheer against their own team.

(The actual scheme I would favor would be
-lottery for 1st round, with 2nd and later rounds in reverse order of 1st round to try to equalize as much as possible within one year;
-the next year, reverse the order of the previous year, i.e. just do the lottery every two years, using opposite orders in consecutive years;
-the 3rd year, do a fresh lottery again;
-hold the lottery at the end of the season so teams know their draft slots at the same time as now for scouting purposes.)

lexomatic - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#205584) #

stephen, the purpose of the draft was to equalize, that it does not succeed doesn't mean that the winningest (read richest) franchises get an equal chance to draft the best talent. that would make the problem worse. there's ways to deal with it, but i don't know enough to suggest them. All i konw is that things need fixing.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#205585) #

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#205587) #

He [Rios]'s 0 for 3 so far tonight and is down to a Wells-like 258/309/420

His numbers for the White Sox in 43 AB: 195/209/341, 1 HR, 2 RBI

John Northey - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#205588) #

Just imagine if Halladay had been traded too. With him and Rios both performing poorly JP would've looked like a master of timing for once.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#205589) #

And the Phillies have to be thrilled over having to "settle" for Cliff Lee, whose cumulative 2009 numbers are only slightly off his 2008 numbers (gaudy W-L excluded, of course).

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#205590) #

Rios had some tough luck last night, a ball caught at the wall and a line drive caught by Drew with runners on 2nd and 3rd.

Wildrose - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#205591) #

I'd hope fatigue isn't occurring. Scutaro has played more SS than ever before, Hill is recovering from an injury so both of them have reasons. The rest, not so much.

I'm not sure being physically fatigued is as much of a factor in baseball as many think. Tango did a study in the 2009 Hardball Times that compared the offensive output of catchers given a day of rest as opposed to playing everyday. The sample size was massive and the results surprising-no significant difference between the groups, in fact the non rested guys did slightly better.

I'm not sure the notion baseball players need time off because of physical fatigue is warranted. There's lots of standing around in baseball, little physical contact as compared with such sports as hockey and basketball. Baseball has a huge mental component, players minds tend to wander when playing out the string. Giving players days off to improve their overall seasonal statistics has not been substantiated, in fact the opposite as the Tango study shows, occurred.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#205592) #

Those Tango results are interesting.

When I threw out the notion of fatigue affecting defense, I was referring to mental fatigue as well. I'd imagine that it would be tough to stay sharp in the latter stages of a season going nowhere (the mind wandering you referred to).

Of course, ideas on the role of fatigue, or at least perceived fatigue, are just conjecture, just as the role of "protection" in a batting lineup once was. If the numbers don't support the conjecture, it's time to reassess.

Wildrose - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#205593) #

In any discussion regarding Scutaro I think there's something to be said for being an everyday regular at one position. Basically Cito Gaston is the first guy to ever give him an everyday job at one position. Prior to this he's been a spot starter/utility player getting about 70% playing time at several positions.

Given that he's had his best offensive and defensive output over this time period may be reflective of his "true" value. Most people perform better if they know they have the backing of the boss.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#205594) #

Tango's study is a weak piece of evidence for what you are arguing, Wildrose. If a catcher has a day off in May, it might be a scheduled day off or it might be due to a minor injury or illness. Reduction in performance might very well be expected in these circumstances.

Cumulative workload is a different thing. You could look at the change in performance in September for players who had 125-130 games through August (or whatever figure would be less than 5 games off) vs. those who had 119-124 games. Cal Ripken hit very poorly in September over his career. He might be the exception or he might be the rule.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#205595) #

I recall a study from years ago (darned if I can recall the source) which said that players basically had a drastic improvement if they had 5-7 days off a season vs playing every last game. ie: one day off a month did the trick.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#205597) #

Just thought I'd check how much Ruiz being here has affected Millar.

In the month of August Millar has played a total of 4 games, 15 PA's. In July from the 1st to 25th he had 10 games, 40 PA's. 14/50 in June, 15/43 in May, 8/34 in April. Ruiz' first game was August 11th, since which Millar has played twice and gone 0-7. Snider came up on the 18th since which Millar has played just once and gone 0 for 3.

Phew. Took Cito a long time to pull Millar but now Millar is right in the McDonald zone - living on the bench and used as rarely as possible. Just vs LHP for Overbay (still too much imo).

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#205598) #

For those who enjoy a good conspiracy theory, it should be noted that Millar is due $50K bonuses at the 250 PA and 300 PA marks. The 300 ain't gonna happen and now the 250 looks to be in jeopardy. Millar is at 220 PA at the moment.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#205599) #

Thanks for pointing that out, Chuck. I can't wait to watch the Jays flush $50,000 down the toilet for zero reason whatsoever.

VBF - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#205600) #

Phew. Took Cito a long time to pull Millar but now Millar is right in the McDonald zone - living on the bench and used as rarely as possible.

His presence is still hurting this team. He doesn't have platoon splits, he plays one defensive position mediocrely, he's not really fast. As long as McDonald isn't in the game, there's no real time in any game where you're thinking "Why isn't he pinch hitting Millar?!". I get the 'clubhouse guy' argument, since I think that if anyone's ever a 'clubhouse guy' it's him, but on the field, it's pointless having him here.

I'd much rather have Dopirak coming off the bench when he's not starting against lefties. I suspect that on September 1st, this will happen. If free agency fails to bring in anyone, I wouldn't object to going with this platoon on Opening Day next year.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#205602) #

Millar's got nothing on Magglio Ordonez for expensive playing time thresholds. Ordonez has an $18M 2010 option that is perilously close to kicking in.

Jim Leyland has a serious balancing act on his hands. He's got a division that he is trying to win and that will mean fielding the best team possible. He's got a GM that has probably urged him to go ahead and win that division but, in so doing, limit Ordonez to fewer than 163 PA and 31 starts in the team's final 37 games (either of which would trigger the 2010 option, if my math is correct).

Ordonez, who has been eminently benchable all season long, has decided to start hitting in August (OPS 1019). And I don't know that there is anyone on the bench whose performance is screaming for playing time at his expense.

Officially, Leyland would never admit to any GM intervention, but it must be there, right? Right? $18M is a lot of change.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#205603) #

You owe me a coke.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#205604) #

The Tigers will be looking for a DP combination during the off-season. They could use some of the Ordonez' money to pursue Scutaro.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#205607) #

I like the idea of a league wide lottery, although not all 30 teams. Perhaps teams 1 - 6 get a chance at the #1 overall pick, 7 - 15, 16 - 30, or something along those lines. It would add some excitement to the offseason.

I think Dave has it right, actually - this is a plan I'd love to see:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/abolish-the-draft

TamRa - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#205608) #

Speaking of Millar - he's back in the cleanup spot tonight.

I'm going to have to start a fire Cito campaign I think. I almost wonder if he's doing it just to prove he's too big to fire sometimes.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#205612) #

Magglio is hitting .319/.394/.538 since the All Star break. 18m option or not, Leyland is going to keep plugging him into the order during a division race. He's batting 3rd today for the 3rd game in a row, against a left-hander.

Wildrose - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#205619) #

Cumulative workload is a different thing. You could look at the change in performance in September for players who had 125-130 games through August (or whatever figure would be less than 5 games off) vs. those who had 119-124 games.

Obviously I did a poor job of explaining Tango's study. We see managers in baseball often do things like giving a catcher the day off after playing Friday evening and having a game scheduled for Saturday afternoon, in the belief that the physical grind of constantly squatting, throwing, being nicked by foul balls will wear catchers out. The hypothesis is that catching is quite physically demanding and catchers would benefit by being rested on occasion.

He looked at every game caught by catchers over the last 50 years. He chose the top 20 who were worked hardest in their twenties, and then followed them for the rest of their careers, this is the very definition of as you say " cumulative workload". He then looked at their performance when rested-it didn't matter if it was late in the season, a teams day off, injury or a managerial decision. Rest is rest.

The expected outcome was that catchers would benefit by being rested ( Gaston and Gibbons, like most managers, follow this program by giving their catchers a day off here and there) and their performance should reflect these breaks.

This did not occur. No statistically significant difference in WOBA was to be found between being ridden like a mule or being given the odd day off. I'll quote Tango;

"We should have seen some larger degradation in the numbers, and we don't see it . Perhaps the degradation does exist-as it really should, since catchers are human beings-but its effect is rather muted."

So yeah, I stand by my original assertion that the need to rest position positional for no particular reason in the belief that they are physically tired is generally overstated.

Matthew E - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#205621) #

Wow. The circus was in town tonight.

westcoast dude - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#205622) #

Had 'em all the way--and League gets the win.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#205623) #

The circus was in town tonight.

Not a good night for the umps. Injuries, botched calls on the bases, a bizarro 9th inning where strikes get called balls...

And the "tactically inert" Gaston sees fit to pinch-hit for Chavez yet, oddly, not for MacDonald, either in the 7th against a RHP or in the 9th against a LHP. But it doesn't matter because JP Howell pitches like Thurston Howell (or maybe Lovey?).

And 4 hours of Rod Black and Pat Tabler. That's just cruel and unusual punishment.

Matthew E - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#205624) #

He couldn't pinch hit for McDonald, could he? Who would go in to play defense--Halladay?

Matthew E - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#205625) #

Now that I think about it I guess Bautista could come in from the outfield and Lind could come off the bench.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#205626) #

Wasn't Lind available (did I miss something)? Lind pinch-hits, plays LF, Bautista slides from LF to 3B.

Spifficus - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#205627) #

And 4 hours of Rod Black and Pat Tabler. That's just cruel and unusual punishment.

And yet somehow it's not worse than listening to the Rays announcers, who to this point are the only pairing can think of that are distinctly worse than Tabler and Black. The first place to reinvest some of those Rios-dollars is on a good set of announcers a la Krukow and Kuiper, Remy and Orsillo, Buck Martinez and Bob Campbell and others. This would go a long way toward improving the product presented. As for the TSN side, rent them out cheap - it's important to protect your brand against the likes of their uninspired duo.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 26 2009 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#205628) #

"He couldn't pinch hit for McDonald, could he? Who would go in to play defense--Halladay?"

I have way more confidence in Janssen at the hot corner. I know he played some first and third before and when he first got to UCLA.

Alex Obal - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#205629) #

I feel like Rod Black has improved this year. His marvel-at-Yankee-intangibles act is still insufferable, but he seems to be enjoying himself more than usual.

TamRa - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 02:00 AM EDT (#205630) #

Rox DFA'ed Matt Murton tonight - might not be a bad get as a spare outfield and bench bat next year (or even as the shuttle rider)

He was once expected to be a pretty good hitter.

Probably be the second coming of Bobby Kielty but if it cost us little, it couldn't hurt to see what he could do for us.
In fact, outside of 2008 he's been average or better as a hitter every year of his career.

Chuck - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#205631) #

And yet somehow it's not worse than listening to the Rays announcers, who to this point are the only pairing can think of that are distinctly worse than Tabler and Black.

God God, really? Who calls their games, Gilbert Godfried and Pee Wee Herman? (I'm trying to imagine what worse sounds like.)

Frank Markotich - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#205632) #

I would put the Diamondbacks and Nationals announcers at the very bottom of any list. Cincinnati's are pretty bad, too.

Spifficus - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#205634) #

Actually, for some reason, I have mixed feelings about Dibble. I mean he's a pull-cord toy for baseball cliches, but he's pretty amusing when he starts telling a clubhouse story or goes on a rant or something. The comments are so, umm, colourful that it seems more genuine. I think I listened to a few games he did with Carpenter (who normally does the Orioles games, I think), and the duo seemed to work quite well together. Black's 'announcer voice' kills me. It just feels so put-on and grating, but when he's conversing more naturally with Tabler, his speech style is much closer to tolerable (no comment on the content). The best comparison is a political one - Layton (disclaimer: this is just a comment on one particular oratory device, and not a political comment). He has a sound-bite voice; when he's about to give his quotable line, his voice drops two octaves and slows down. For Black, it's more a pacing thing, and it's especially bad at the intro or outro to an inning, when he's searching for that pithy recap. Speaking of rant... I'd better stop now before this one gets even more off-track.

Spifficus - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#205635) #

Definitely have to agree about the Diamondbacks crew, though. Grace is just downright freakish. And not in that amusing way... more of the awkward-is-an-understatement way. I remember one time they had a guy dressed up as a taco in the booth doing a promo, and he couldn't let it go. I mean, he was commenting on how 'he didn't like his tacos with arm hair' and stuff like that for the rest of the game, and it was so often that it went well beyond him just trying to be funny. If I remember (I've tried to block it out), the game went extra innings. Ugh.

Four Seamer - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#205636) #

Wasn't Lind available (did I miss something)? Lind pinch-hits, plays LF, Bautista slides from LF to 3B.

It was implied on the radio broadcast that Lind was unavailable to pinch-hit, as it might jeopardize his 8-game hitting streak. Move over, Joe DiMaggio.

This was after Alan and Jerry spent the entire top of the sixth inning discussing the no-hitter Rzepczynski had going, pulling for the Rays to get a hit so Cito could take him out after six. I like those two, but they are about as ready for the off-season as the rest of us.

Matthew E - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#205638) #

Seriously? Lind couldn't go up to bat because he'd be too sad if he didn't get a hit? I really hope that's not what anybody was actually thinking.

92-93 - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#205639) #

If anything, there's more logic to Cito's "lose one now to win two later" mentality when the team is 13.5 out of a playoff spot. I agree, let Lind keep his hitting streak, there's no reason now to all of a sudden start managing like you actually want to put your team in the best position to win ballgames.

Chuck - Thursday, August 27 2009 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#205659) #

Alex Rios has lost some of his shiny new toy appeal in Chicago, and is sitting tonight in favour of Mark Kotsay. That is most definitely not a good sign for him.

Jays take 2 of 3 from AL West Leader | 103 comments | Create New Account

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