To begin with I decided to look at the results of this year’s draft to see if there was a comparable failure to sign picks their picks from any other team in the majors. In the 2009 draft there were 24 unsigned picks in the first 10 rounds, which totalled 321 players (I did most of the math/data entry in this column quickly and late at night, so I apologize if I made any oversights or errors, although I’m confident they would be very minor.) Those 24 players include Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, who are eligible to sign up until the date of next year’s draft. I’m going to operate on the assumption both sign, as although neither is an “easy” sign, I doubt Crow wants to return for another year of independent ball and Scheppers will be a focus for Texas moving forward.
If Scheppers signs that will leave the Rangers, Rays and Jays as the teams with the most unsigned draft picks in the top ten at three each. Texas didn’t sign their first rounder (another reason I expect Scheppers to sign eventually, as Texas will want to make up for not signing Purke) and Tampa was unable to agree to terms with their first or second rounder. However, each team’s remaining unsigned pick(s) were in the lower third of the top ten rounds (TB 10th rd; Texas 9th and 10th round).
To be fair the Jays did spend more money than six other teams in the majors on their draft class (although Texas may make that five once they sign Scheppers), but the team appears to have let a golden opportunity slip away in not signing three of their top four picks. The team did spend money on a few names later in the draft, but these names had mixed scouting reports, especially relative to names like Paxton, Eliopoulos and Barrett.
The failure to sign three of the top 100 picks is something probably unprecedented, but I wanted to find out more than that. If we draw the line at 100 than we’re creating a standard where the minimum is just below what the Jays “accomplished” and then acting surprised when everyone else is outside of it. Using Baseball America’s draft tracker, I decided to go back as far as I could and see if I could find any comparable drafts where teams failed to sign three picks in the first five rounds. This would open the criteria up to about 175 players a year and include six or more players for many teams when supplemental picks were included.
Surely there would be another team that had a similar draft, right? For those that can’t wait I’ll end the suspense and say that there wasn’t in the five drafts I looked at, including 2009. One hundred and fifty draft boards and only one had three picks in the first five rounds not sign. And, there were hardly any with two picks to not sign.
In 2008 there were two teams that failed to sign two picks in the first five rounds. The Angels failed to sign a supplemental third rounder and a fifth rounder and the Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole, their first round pick, as well as their second round pick The Yankees did sign a supplemental first rounder between those two unsigned picks. They also made up for not spending in the draft by signing C.C. Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira that offseason. With such an investment in free agency I can understand cutting a million or two out of the draft budget and if the Jays spend $400 million in free agency I’ll completely understand their failure to sign Paxton and the others.
How about 2006? How many are there that year? One. The Astros failed to sign their third and fourth rounders, which incidentally were their two picks in the draft. That’s pretty bad, but the Astros have hardly been the model franchise over the past few years.
Skipping back to 2006 there were no teams that even failed to sign two picks in the first five rounds. Strangely, Baseball America has a draft database for 2003, despite not having one (or one I could find) for 2004 and 2005. I checked 2003 and, like 2006, not one team had a draft with two unsigned players in those first few rounds.
To repeat, I looked at one hundred and fifty drafts and found four where the team didn’t sign two picks in the first five rounds (Astros 2007, Yankees 2008, Angels 2008 and Rays 2009). Oh yes, and one where the team failed to sign three picks in the first three rounds.
What do the Jays have to show for this? Well, the team will receive a makeup pick for each unsigned player and will have six picks in the first three rounds next year, at least. Hopefully they’ll be able to add at least two to that total through offering arbitration to Scutaro. So, the Jays have a reasonable chance to have eight picks in the first three rounds next year.
And that’d be great if I had any confidence that the Jays would use those picks wisely and sign those players. Right now, I have no such confidence and I don’t see how one can assume the team will sign all the players until they have six or eight signatures at the bottom of contracts next August.
Regardless, the Jays have already lost leverage for the 2010 draft as they will not receive a pick in 2011 if they fail to sign whomever they draft in the slots that are given as makeup picks for Paxton, Eliopoulos and Barrett. Thus, the Jays have lost negotiating leverage. If I was a player drafted in one of those slots by the Jays next year I’d hope my agent pushed a very hard bargain in negotiations, as the team will lose the pick if the player isn’t signed.
Consequently, I expect to see at least two Magnuson/Storen-type picks in those slots. It’s not that Magnuson or Storen aren’t talented prospects, but rather that they were considered easy signs or had little leverage themselves and were drafted higher than where they should have been. I expect you’ll see college seniors and overdrafts in these makeup picks, as the Jays will have to sign these players or end up with egg on their face.
I have no idea what went on in the negotiations between the Jays and these three players, but I find it hard to believe the Jays drafted them without a good idea of what it would take to sign them. I have no idea if James Paxton will ever make the major leagues. But, based on the information that is available, there is nothing one can do but conclude Toronto’s failure to sign top picks this draft is unprecedented and, as far as I can see, does not fit into any larger strategy or plan for the team’s future. The team will have a chance to correct this in 2010, but with more players to sign and less leverage it is hard to see how it will be possible without a significant increase in the draft budget. And whether that will occur is anyone’s guess.
