All discussion around Overbay continues to confuse me. Some see him as part of the problem, lumping him in with Rios and Wells. Others see him as having enough value to make him tradeable. Others yet are calling for his replacement by Lind or Encarnacion or Dopirak or Willie Upshaw or Willie Aikens or Willie Keeler.

Overbay's OPS split for his career is 845/717 (vs RHP/LHP). Last year it was 865/540. This year it is 913/556.

He is almost certainly stretched as a full-time first baseman, but his numbers against RHP make him worthy of a platoon job. Add in plus defense and I can't see where the problem lies. Flip Millar for Dopirak and maybe, most definitely not assuredly, you've got a mega-cheap platoon mate.

Now, is a platoon 1B worth $7M? Well, that can certainly be debated, especially on a potentially dollar-crunched roster. But to trade him, as many have suggested, sending some money to offset the salary and not asking for much back... what's the point? Who is he holding back?

This roster is currently shy a good LH bat at 1B/DH/LF. Hopefully Snider fills that role. Chasing Overbay away just creates one more hole.

Here's a thought...if EE finishes the year strongly, he probably has positive trade value. Could he be traded for Brandon Wood if the Halos let Figgins walk? I suppose it depends on how well EE plays. What about JJ Hardy with the Brewers grooming Escobar? Personally, I hope he plays very well down the stretch and can then be traded for someone who profiles better defensively at the hot corner...

I think trying to resign Scoot is imperative if the team wants to attempt to contend in 2010. Losing the elite defence and downgrading offence on the left side of the infield is not going to make contention even a longshot possibility...

they don't seem as uptight about defense asthe Jays are.

Actually, I think, with the Big Z in his first year as GM, they're actually more defense-centric than the Jays (Gutierrez, Chavez, Hannrahan, getting rid of Betancourt, etc). Also, it would be a stroke of crazy to offer Beltre arbitration. Cot's has his 2009 salary at $12M. Can't remember if the 80% max-cut rule applies to these arb cases, but even still he probably wouldn't see much of a cut anyway. So, that's effectively a $10M+ offer for a 3B coming off a season just killed by a bum shoulder he had to have surgery on. I would much rather wait til the offseason and see if I can get him on the 'cheap' while he tries to resuscitate his value. Safeco has killed his power numbers, and he's about the only guy actually better than Rolen at third. As long as he comes back looking healthy, he'd be my target and not Figgins.

We need Lyle's OBP more than we need additional slugging.  To get both in one 1Bman with plus defence would be an expensive proposition.   Losing Rolen, Scutaro and Overbay next season would be a killer to OBP and our offense.

I think Overbay/Dopirak at 1B for $7.5m could be excellent value.

Barajas is a free agent. I don't know that the Jays will pursue him (though I don't know that they won't, either).

Edwin Encarnacion is not a defensive diamond in the rough. He's friggin' Edward Scissorhands. All the Butter in the world is not likely to make him a passable defender. He'll have to earn his keep by hitting enough to offset what he gives up with the leather.

Dopirak has been beating up AA pitching at age 25 and is now hitting well in the PCL. His age must temper any projection, even one from someone who by his own admission indulges in self-delusion! For the time being, let's just set the bar at hitting LHP better than Kevin Millar.

oh dear lord that wells contract is killing us.

1. SS M.Scutaro
2. 3B E.Encarnacion
3. LF A.Lind
4. 2B A.Hill
5. 1B L.Overbay
6. CF A.Rios
7. RF T.Snider
8. DH B.Dopirak
9. C R.Barajas

with Snider/Dopirak possibly moving up to those 4/5 spots.

Would we be a better team right now if we dropped Wells and added Dopirak? I think maybe.

The Jays are 8th in the Majors in IsoP and 14th in the league on OBP.  Their wOBA is .336, which ties them with the Dodgers and Rangers for 8th in the Majors.

Not familair with above stats.  Someone else mentioned we need slugging more then on base.  No way.   Tampa and Boston are out-walking us and that factor alone explains the differences in runs scored. .  Extra base hits are almost the same.   If the slugging was normalized to plate appearances it would be the same.  Only reason Tampa and Boston are ahead in slugging is because 80 of our outs are walks for them... so less at bats.  But extra base hits per plate appearance would be the same.   We are not a bad offensive team.  We swing at bad pitches sometimes.  Our rivals swing at bad pitches less.  After the Denbo fiasco I have no idea how to get a team to walk more...  But I do know it is a key to winning.  It seems when we tried we just ended up with called strike three down the middle.  Boston and Tampa have successfully implemented good plate discipline.   Props to them.  We never have.  JP's greatest failure is the inability to increase the teams on base percentage... 

Boston hit .268 123 homers, Tampa .267 128 homers,  Toronto .269 122 homers.  

Boston 548 runs, Tampa Bay 544, Toronto 512

Boston 430 walks, Tampa 427 walks, Toronto 350 walks. 

Tampa has stolen 130 bases, Boston 85,  Toronto 56.  but if stolen bases were making a difference we would expect Tampa to score more runs then Boston.  Doesn't happen.

If we did a correlation, the thing that made the difference would be walks.

It is not a HUGE deal.  Costing us 30 or 40 runs compared to those teams.  But it is the difference maker right now.   And traditionally Boston and New York out walk us, sometimes by as much as 200 walks.  Every walk is worth about 1/3 of a run.

 just went to the ESPN website to check out some of these numbers (the Jays aren't 14th in the league in OBP; they're 14th in the majors.

I meant to imply the entire league by leading into the discussion referencing the "majors".  The point is that we're a better slugging club than an OBP club, which figures to get much more pronounced without suitable replacements for Rolen, Scutaro and Overbay. 

Did you ignore some of the earlier posts on this very thread? Are you nursing some unexplained grudge against Lyle Overbay? To quote Ryan Day earlier in the thread, "[Overbay]'s hitting 256/374/470 this year, 277/401/512 agains RHP."

Here are the names of eight other 1B in the majors. Derrek Lee. Lance Berkman. Mark Teixeira. Todd Helton. James Loney. Miguel Cabrera. Carlos Pena. Paul Konerko.

If he was ranked alongside those first basemen Overbay against RHP would be fourth of nine in OPS. He only trails Berkman, Teixeira and Pena.

Now, that's not entirely fair as it takes Overbay's splits and takes seasonal stats for the other players (although I tried to leave out some players with a huge platoon split, like Howard, who Overbay against RHP is also beating), but it shows you that Overbay against RHP is a perfectly acceptable first baseman, particularly when his strong defence is taken into account. Not a star and certainly nothing close to elite, but a very productive player. He just needs to have his at-bats against LHP kept to a minimum (and Dopirak is a right-handed batter who hits lefties better....)

What some people's obsession with getting rid of him is, I have no idea. To echo Ryan Day again, I have no objection to trading him away for some return, but to give him away on waivers is foolish unless the budget forces it and all other options have been exhausted.

Randy Ruiz is a someone who probably should have been given more at-bats in the majors than he has to this point in his career. He's someone who deserves some MLB time based on his Triple-A performance this year and he deserves a spot on the Blue Jays roster far more than Kevin Millar.

But he's not a long-term solution. Ruiz is not a better player than Lyle Overbay right now. He won't be next season either. Lyle Overbay is not a star first base, but there's no reason the Jays can't platoon him and Dopirak at 1B next year, give Lind/Snider the DH role and stick the other one in a corner OF spot. If they sign a corner OF/DH bat then they can look to trade Rios or Overbay, but he should not be given away under the pretense Ruiz is an everday 1B or the assumption that a corner OF bat that hits better than Overbay will be signed in free agency.

What some people's obsession with getting rid of him is, I have no idea. To echo Ryan Day again, I have no objection to trading him away for some return, but to give him away on waivers is foolish unless the budget forces it and all other options have been exhausted.

I would rather the Jays lose Overbay and his $7 mill for next year than keep him...he is a decent player, but based on last year's market I think $7 million can be spent as well or better. It would be different if he could hit LHP, but he can't. So $7 mill for a 400-450 AB player? It's not worth it, in my opinion, when the free agent market will have enough 1B/DH/OF options and Lind can shift to 1B. Sure, the 1B defense will suffer...but perhaps a decent OF can be put in LF (or Snider) to upgrade the LF defense which will make everything balance out. Either way, I don't think anyone would pay Overbay $7 million in 2010 for what he does. More like $5 million I'm guessing. I think it is more valuable to have $7 million to spend in the upcoming FA market than to have it tied up in Overbay...hence, if he were claimed on waivers, I'd be okay if the Jays received nothing in return.

However, it is entirely possible that if JP manages to clear $7 million he won't be given an opportunity to spend it in 2010...which would then make it better to just keep Overbay...

I do agree, though, that it would be VERY dangerous to lose the top OBP players like Overbay, Rolen and Scoot...it may very well cancel out the potential gains of better slugging from guys like Encarnacion, Snider etc.

Fair enough, but we're still guessing at what the free agent market will be like this offseason and we don't really know how that's going to play out. Don't forget that while we're paying $7 million for Overbay's 450 at-bats the Jays also have a ready-made platoon mate in Dopirak so they'll only be spending $7.4 million on the position.

Also, I'm not sure which free agent will outproduce Overbay/Dopirak for less than $7 million. The top-tier will price themselves out of the Jays range and I don't have too much confidence in Garrett Anderson, Geoff Jenkins or Aubrey Huff doing too much at the plate. I guess maybe that's the sacrifice the team has to take to shed payroll, but I still think Overbay has value at $7 million and isn't a waiver wire dump.

Not familair with above stats.  Someone else mentioned we need slugging more then on base.  No way.   Tampa and Boston are out-walking us and that factor alone explains the differences in runs scored. .

Unfortunately this is the approach that the previous regime under Gary Denbo and his predecessor preached and, I'm sorry, but the results were FAR WORSE than even what we are seeing now!  I agree with the people preaching that we don't have sluggers!  I don't have time to research the numbers, but I suspect that a strong contributor to the offensive offense is (team HR total AND the lack of HR's with runners on base!)

On base percentage is the most important stat.  Patients is the most important hitting attribute.  No question about it.  No question at all.  

This is the trap that many of us feared.  Denbo didn't work out.  Nobody is arguing that.  But comments like this scare the bejeezus out of me.  NOBODY is arguing that we should take strike three down the middle.  We realize you can't just say 'Draw more walks boys'.  

BUT.  The Yankees are patient.   Tampa is patient.  Boston is patient.  We are not.  Tampa became patient the last 2 years... since then joining Boston and New York as elite teams.  The teams ahead of us are patient.  They outwalk us.  They have been out walking us for the last 15 years.  Hitting with runners in scoring position is alot of luck.  It is questionable whether it is a measurable skill.  But if it is I suspect it is related to patience.

Everybody from Cito Gaston to the ballboy realizes the importance of pitchers NOT walking guys.  David Purcey is wild.  It is obvious this is bad.  David Purcey is in the minors.  Vernon Wells faces a wild pitcher.  Swings at some bad pitches rescues the pitcher.  People are mad.  But not as mad as they are at David Purcey.  Why is it not = both ways???

Alex Rodriguez is up runners on base.  Carlos Pena is up.  Low pitch.  They are patient.  Respect their team-mates.  Know that the teamate can do the job to.  They take the pitch.  Ball four.  Posado, or  Zobrist turn next.  A team.  They take a crack. 

Vernon Wells is up.  Low pitch.  Groun ball to second double play.  Our clutch hitting is awful.  Just need some clutch.  Carl Crawford.  He'll do it,.  Walks are over rated.  Money ballers know nothing.

That is exactly it.  

The problem is at bats where no good pitches go by but our hitters swing away anyway.  Why does Vernon Wells hit a popup??  Because the pitch was too high.  Why does Vernon Wells hit a ground ball double play??  The pitch was too low.   

A simplification ofcourse but If you compare Wells to Bobby Abreu the difference is 40 at bats where no good pitches came by.  Wells swung anyway and hit popups and grounders.  Abreu took walks. 

It's not a matter of just telling Vernon to walk more.  That just doesn't work.  I'm not a GM.  I don't know how you implement plate discipline.  All I know is that the jays have failed at it miserably.  When JP showed up he told us he was an 'on base percentage freak'.  But our on base percentage hasn't changed much. 

My gut feeling is you just have to start teaching plate discipline from a young age.  Try and draft and sign players with strong walk rates (tex a-rod).   Collect guys with good obp in the minors (Gross, Zobrist).  Well at least thats what it looks like our better smarter rivals have been doing.

But we will run around in circles trying to be 'clutch' chasing a skill that may not even exist.  

On base percentage is the most important stat.

If you only had one stat that you were allowed to look at between BA, OBP and SLG, then yes, OBP is the most important stat. If you're only looking at one stat, then you're only looking at one brush stroke on the Mona Lisa. Hopefully it's a better one than the one you're looking at on Dogs Playing Poker.

As for the rest of it, Moneyball is more about finding undervalued assets, not about finding beer-leaguers who can hit HRs and take walks. Carlos Pena was an undervalued asset. Delmon Young was an overvalued asset that was leveraged at his peak. Howell was an undervalued asset (Joey Gathright? Really?). Aybar was the quintessential undervalue asset (off-field issues killed his value). Zobrist was always a patient hitter in the minors, but that didn't do him any good until he started hitting the ball with enough authority to scare pitchers out of the zone.

For all the crapping on Wells, his patience stats on Fangraphs are pretty much league average across the board. That's not the problem. Looking at the breakdowns, it seems to be a major boost in his FB rate, a major drop in his HR/FB rate, and a significant drop in his LD rate. When pitch f/x meets hit f/x, we'll be able to say with more certainty, but right now, it looks like Vernon's being Vernon. Cito's explanation is plausible enough - he's not getting his foot down in time (or some variation on that). Late swings = bad contact (or no contact, but that's not really his problem this year). He also had wrist trouble at the beginning of the year (and may still) that could be slowing his swing down, or maybe his Hammys aren't just killing his defense. I don't know, but his pitch selection doesn't seem to be anything un-Vernon

Zep????  Back of rotation??  Stuff doesn't impress????  Where did you get that impression???  Your not alone, but I have not heard this from an official source. 

I saw a report a while back comparing him to Webb.  Here is a guy that stormed through the minors striking out 10 per game with a crazy low homer rate.  Had the best groundball and strikeout rate in the eastern league.  Continued striking out 9 per inning in the majors.  Only given up one homer so far.  Doing all of this with less then stellar control.

So without great stuff, and with bad control how is he having this type of success??  For 250+ innings at all levels now????

We are a society that doesn't think and doesn't use logic.  How can a guy without great stuff, and with bad control have any success??  The only logical explanation is that he does have good stuff. 

What I have heard is that he has low 90s stuff with incredible movement.  Brandon Webb like.  What he doesn't have is good control. 

I have also heard from Keith Law that he has bad mechanics and a funky delivery.   When BJ Ryan was awesome in 2006 would you consider him having 'not great stuff'??  He only through 90 even back then.  But great movement.

So putting it all together you've got a guy with terrific stuff but control problems.  Doesn't give up runs because he doesn't give up bombs, but can only go 5 because he has bad control.   If he could lower his walk rate he could be terrific.  He could also be a surgery waiting to happen.     

Gabe gross was always a patient hitter in the minors...  he's never started hitting the ball with enough authority to scare pitchers away from the strike zone.  But he still draws walks.  And is an underrated part of Tampas success. 

Marco Scutaro certainly doesn't hit with alot of authority.  All of a sudden he's drawing alot of walks even though the pitchers have huge incentive not to walk him.  Aaron Hill draws no walks but is still successful.  And you'd think the pitchers would be avoiding him this year.

Why would anyone every walk Ricky Henderson when he was stealing 100+ bases??  Yet he often walked 100 times and stole 100 bases.

It's a complicated issue.  And if you read my posts you know I realize the Denbo way was not the answer.

Walks are like pulse rate.  An indication of the heart problem.  The offense has a problem.  The walks are an indicator that something is wrong.  We have not had more walks then Boston or NY in a long time.  Haven't walked more then NY since 1992.  Now Tampa starts walking and are up with Boston and New York.

I doubt we have an offense competitive with Boston, Tampa, NY, until we walk as much as them. But not as simple as getting Denbo to say 'walk more boys' I know that. 

Would you trade Snider for Gordon Beckham?

But if the team is putting Millar at the clean-up slot as some kind of message to Rios and Wells, couldn't they find a better way of sending a message without weakening the lineup so drastically?   If they called up Snider and Dopirak and put one of them ahead of Rios and Wells in the lineup, wouldn't that be a better way of sending a message to the sleepy duo?  Why does Millar, of all people, have to be the Western Union telegram guy?

And, in fact, do we really need to be sending messages to Rios and Wells anyway?  Don't they fully understand the message by now?  Isn't it possible that they are getting so many messages -- from management, from the fans, from their teammates implicitly if not explicitly -- that they are pressing too hard, putting too much pressure on themselves, trying too hard, etc?  Of course the psychology of a highly paid baseball player is a complicated and tricky business, but psychology has to be part of the equation when we're trying to understand why Rios and Wells are failing to fulfill the expectations of their expensive contracts.

Gabe gross was always a patient hitter in the minors...

Yes, he was. And he was still a meh player unless he was hitting for a tolerable average. Aside from that, the pitching patterns on him have distinctly changed over the past 3 years... You know, when he had his second straight season of a .202 ISO (his previous high was .101)? The biggest difference? First pitch strikes. They have gone from 58% to 52%. Also, from 50% strikes overall (average) to about 47%. Oddly enough, he's also swinging at more out-of-zone stuff... and making more contact with it. So, overall, I'm not really sure what this example nets you, other than pitchers are pitching him differently since his highest ISO years... which probably more supports the Zobrist theory I had. Data's too out-there to feel real good about it, though (too many variables).

Right now, the biggest flaw I see in our offence is that we're more of a long-sequence sort with too many holes. We have 3 guys with an ISO above .200 (Lind, Hill, and our most-times 1B, Overbay... When you add in the Millar factor, we really only have 2). This means we're going to be heavily dependant upon batting average to get things done. We have a sequence of 3 that can put something together at the top of the order, and then... well... I'd rather not talk about it too much. There are 2 ways we could go - More HR power to get those runs scoring, or more BA to keep the line moving (I say BA since it is the single biggest factor in both OBP and SLG, so it covers a lot of basis). The Darren Ersted's have me cautious of advocating the BA approach due to its variance. Of course, HRs have become more and more expensive. Unless we can score Nick the Stick or Abreu on the cheap, BBs are also quite expensive (the other guys either have power as well, or expensive contracts). It's really not a fun choice to have, especially when you have no distinct points of weakness (catcher aside, and this is assuming a scoot resign). Basically, I think we still need a couple pieces of star talent, and relying on Wells and Rios to have bounceback seasons is starting to taste too much like "If only things broke our way." My brain tells me there should be some rebound, but they're starting to look like too much of a variance to be counted on. I wouldn't mind if they were the pieces we were hoping to take a contending team over the top, but to have to rely on their bouncebacks to even get near contention is not a flavor to my personal liking.

And, yes, Millar needs to Cowboy Down. Our DHs are a league-average bat, in spite of 72% of the plate appearances going to Lind. Millar's 73 PAs gave almost all of that value back. Just thought I'd throw my hat into the ring on that one

I'm not sure batting Millar cleanup is justification for firing Cito. I'm not even sure why you're bringing it up. Firstly, Cito's done nothing that should cause him to be fired. Batting Kevin Millar cleanup is highly highly questionable and not something I agree with at all, but a fireable offense it is not. Secondly, JP has shown no reluctance to shed parts of the Jays past from Delgado to old scouts to entertaining notions of trading Halladay. I don't think he'd keep Cito around if he truly felt that he was becoming a bad manager.

More importantly, Cito's crime of batting him cleanup is only occurs because Kevin Millar is on the roster. JP is the one with bigger questions to answer. Millar's Cowboy Up time is over and it's time to look elsewhere. There was never any chance he could be traded, but JP had time pre-deadline to give him to a contender. Now, let's drop the pretense he might be traded post-waiver deadline and just move on with things.

Right, about the roster construction:

3 outfielders Wells 10 (bonus) + Rios 6 + 0.5 Lind + Snider 0.5     That makes about 17 million for the outfielders. Millar is at 0.8 at DH.

Next Season- Wells 12.5 + Rios 9.7 + raises for Lind and Snider. That makes about 24 million for the outfield and DH position.

For four positions, that works out to about 6 million a player.

2011- Wells 23 + Rios 12 + Lind and Snider >40 million for four positions

JP will be paying on average over 10 million a position every year after 2010. Most evidence would point toward JP as an average GM, but he needed to do better at collecting cheaper talent for the outfield (going forward).

If I were the GM, Millar would be DFA'd not just because of his lack of production but a good part of that argument would be just for the sole purpose of preventing him from hitting cleanup, and how sad is that? That your player personel moves are somewhat based on the lack of confidence in your field manager in putting together a competent lineup (and I'm not convinced lineup management is worth that much). I agree with Thomas, this isn't worth firing and I feel that I don't really know 96% of Cito's day to day job, but man is it frustrating to sit back and try and root for these inexcusable decisions to work out.

This is the same manager, however that let Joe Carter hit cleanup in 1997 with his all mighty .284 OBP and .399 slugging.

What about the infield?

This season J-Mac 2 + Scutaro 1.5 + Overbay 7 + Hill 2.5 + Bautista 2.5 + E5 0.5 + Rolen 9-10 (depending on the rumor)

That makes about 25 million over four positions and two back-ups. If the plan was to have about 100 million in payroll, half would go to positions and half to pitching. I guess there could be worse strategies than this.

2010- Overbay 7 + Hill 4 + Rolen 0-3 (depending on the rumor) + E5 5 + maybe Bautista, SS, and back-ups.

This is where the Jays really need the minor leagues to step up and provide a solid player on the cheap. It would even help if they could have the back-ups just making the minimum. JP or the GM can't be expected to find a Scutaro off the scrap heap every season.

I know this has been commented before, but it bears repeating- JP can't use the payroll excuse and still not be trying to drive better contracts with some of the players. A million here and million there are killing this team as much as the noted bad contracts. JP needs to go year to year for arb players unless they are elite talent. If Hill couldn't have returned healthy after the concussion, that would have been as much as BJ Ryan money again as a sunk cost. I think everyone sees that Overbay extension with some regret. JP has done extremely well in limiting his liabilities with his catchers; he should do the same with a lot of other players too.

Hi.  The site has eaten my last 5 attempted posts, so I'm a bit gun-shy, and will keep this post short.

Fire Cito?  Please, please don't trade in the insight which I usually enjoy from this site for more whinging JP apologia.

The problem has been hitting, and, yes, roster construction.  When the Jays' games count again Snider will be up, and Millar will be gone.  If Cito decides to bat the catcher, whoever he may be, in the cleanup spot, then maybe the grumblings will be merited. 

Until then, please direct your bile to JP Ricciardi and Rogers, Inc., where it is deserved.

Starting Rotation

This season

Halladay 14 + everyone else healthy enough to pitch all at the minimum

This is definitely where the strength of the Jays' farm system lies.

2010 Halladay 16 + arb raises from whoever is healthy

Bullpen

2009

BJ Ryan 10 + Downs 3.75 + Frasor 1.75 +Tallet 1 + Minimum

The money seems to be fairly split between the bullpen and rotation. Obviously, the Jays cannot afford to take a risk by signing an expensive closer unless payroll is going to be heading towards 120 by 2011.

I would guess that Millar keeps getting ABs mainly in the longshot hope that he puts a few good games together, gets his stats looking better (and even just a few good games would make them look alright), and maybe they can trade him to another team looking for some veteran leadership on the backend of their expanded roster, and maybe get some sort of asset back for him.

Either way, I doubt it lasts very long - I'm guessing Dopi and Snider will be up here very soon.

"Cito isn't and never will be a good tactical manager. As much as I hate to say it, as I disliked him as manager - Gibbons was better on field guy. Cito and his tendencies not to pinch hit are embarrassingly bad at times. If JP goes at the end of the season, I hope Cito goes as well."

As frustrating as some of the post-championship decisions were, I surely can't be the only one to remember Cito managing circles around Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox, Jim Fregosi, and, um, Gene Lamont back in the day.

Other than the affection for Millar, Cito has done a much better job of trotting the right lineup out there every day (hello Lind and Scutaro, goodbye junk and MacDonald).  His handling of Rolen was perfect, and he's integrated the youngsters on the pitching staff very well.

Over the course of the season, putting the right players out there to play is much more important than the odd pinch-hitting oversight of a guy that shouldn't be on the roster.

Who (that could reasonably be expected to accept the job) would possibly be a better manager for the Jays (and help maintain confidence in the franchise) than Cito? 

The man's not perfect, but he's led this team to 2 more World Series than any of us.

There's a Cransick article at ESPN which alleges:

This August, two aging former Red Sox could have Conine-type allure.

Kevin Millar is hitting .227 with five home runs in 185 at-bats for Toronto. But he has pennant race experience, he’ll fit seamlessly in any clubhouse and he could have enough left in the tank to provide a big hit or two down the stretch.

I'm not sure batting Millar cleanup is justification for firing Cito.

Not alone. And I wasn't saying he needed to be fired NOW for THAT alone. I was saying that the accumulation of a multitude of peices of evidence COULD occur (and is, in my view, begining to) and nevertheless it would be difficult to let him go so quickly.

And it's not JUST hitting Millar 4th, it's not pinch hitting for him in the 8th. Where the logic to that? do the veteran guys not now KNOW Cito believes in them? More to the point, Kevin f'n Millar is not long for this team so who cares if he gets offended? Are we REALLY losing one now  to win two later (supposedly) when you are over 100 games int othe season?

I'm not even sure why you're bringing it up.

Because the negatives of Cito's in-game style - which all of us long time observers remember from the 90's - are back in full bloom and it's exactly what I was worried about when he was brought back. I made the observations myself about how much better the team hit last year but that was in defense of the player's abilities, not Cito's managment. I'm respectful of Cito's ability to manage players off the field but I've NEVER been a fan of his on-field managment.

I'm bringing it up because it has cost us SEVERAL potential wins this year - noteably the refusal to pinch hit.

Firstly, Cito's done nothing that should cause him to be fired. Batting Kevin Millar cleanup is highly highly questionable and not something I agree with at all, but a fireable offense it is not.

Not in isolation. I wasn't even remotely implying it was - I simply said "the legend of Cito" gives him teflon that his on-field managment isn't worthy of.

Secondly, JP has shown no reluctance to shed parts of the Jays past from Delgado to old scouts to entertaining notions of trading Halladay. I don't think he'd keep Cito around if he truly felt that he was becoming a bad manager.

That's probably a better counter argument - especially when there's a new president in charge. I'd like to think that this is true.

More importantly, Cito's crime of batting him cleanup is only occurs because Kevin Millar is on the roster. JP is the one with bigger questions to answer. Millar's Cowboy Up time is over and it's time to look elsewhere. There was never any chance he could be traded, but JP had time pre-deadline to give him to a contender. Now, let's drop the pretense he might be traded post-waiver deadline and just move on with things.

I'm not shy about questioning JP's fixation with expired veteran bench players. It is, along with inaction at the deadline, his greates flaw, IMO. The question DOES need to be ask. but I don't think for one second that it excuses a manager using a bad player improperly (or at all save in emergency) just because he's there.

Moreover, Cito's calling card - the thing for which he has made his reputation - is getting the most out of his players. I thing he has done that in four cases out of over a dozen position players. i don' think that's a better than average rate.

And I worry about how he handles Snider. I have not forgotten that the worst trade in Jays history happened because Cito was in love with Joe Carter and had no idea what to do with John Olerud.

Thankfully, maybe JP won't roll over and do something stupid because Cito has a dumb idea.

Other than the affection for Millar, Cito has done a much better job of trotting the right lineup out there every day (hello Lind and Scutaro, goodbye junk and MacDonald).  His handling of Rolen was perfect, and he's integrated the youngsters on the pitching staff very well.

Over the course of the season, putting the right players out there to play is much more important than the odd pinch-hitting oversight of a guy that shouldn't be on the roster.

Why should we assume that a league-average manager wouldn't put Lind and Scutaro out there, wouldnt rest Rolen, wouldn't recognize a good young pitcher (as if there were fading vets here for an alternative in the first place)?

Before you point to Gibbons and Lind, Gibbons played Lind. We have no evidence Lind stayed down so long because of any opinion of Gibby's.

IMO, Gibbons wasn't a bad manager - he just let some personality issues get away from him. I fully expect he'll get a job somewhere else and be a winner.

I thought Millar was in a Blue Jays uni because of his positive impact in the clubhouse.

If we assume that he has such an impact, isn't this enough to justify his inclusion in the lineup every once and awhile? 

A pure stats analysis wouldn't justify it but if you figure a good clubhouse and positive work environment are important (as I assume Cito does), maybe he brings other things that lead to overall better team.  A good clubhouse makes guys play better (arguably), helps in attracting and keeping freeagents to the frozen north, and avoids the Shea vs Zaun type incidents of a few years ago.  You can't measure it but having a veteran guy who gets everyone going the right way seems to be important.

Ideally, that guy can also play a little, and its a stretch to turn that into batting him cleanup, but it seems that there is some justification for having him around.

"So without great stuff, and with bad control how is he having this type of success?? For 250+ innings at all levels now????"

Didn't say his control was bad. Said he didn't have Jimmy Key control. Which isn't the same thing. In retrospect, the comment of "We are a society that doesn't think and doesn't use logic" might not have been your best response.

Watching Gameday, Zep has high 80s stuff, rather than low 90s. Velocity is nothing special. Control isn't terrible, but isn't special either. The movement is something I hadn't seen as clearly, which could change his upside. That could be special. But, a guy who doesn't usually go deep into games isn't going to be a #1 or #2 guy. He may be a #3 guy if very good, a #4-5 guy otherwise. I don't see Zep as a #5 guy, and maybe middle-back" would have expressed this sense more clearly. But I tend to see pitchers as #1/#2 "you want them in a playoff game" types, and everyone else.

Zep's definitely more of a dilemma than Cecil or Romero.

"If he could lower his walk rate he could be terrific"

With excellent movement, he could. Is that likely, now, at the major league level?

"He could also be a surgery waiting to happen"

He put on a Blue Jays jersey, which seems to pre-qualify him. But a higher probability has to factor in to evaluations of whom you might trade.

Now, lowering walks while in the majors is not unprecedented, and guys have pitched a long time with "funky" deliveries. And if he does that, it could be an often-regretted trade. And if he doesn't, the regret is likely to be not trading him when his "potential" gave him higher value.