TAM (54-44) 000 001 422 001 10 17 1And what did I think of today's game?
TOR (47-51) 222 201 000 000 9 16 0
Price, Cormier (4), Thayer (6), Balfour (7), Choate (8), Wheeler (8), Howell (6-2) (10), Nelson (12)
Tallet, League (7), Accardo (8), Downs (9), Frasor (10), Camp (0-5) (11)
A few thoughts from under the band-wagon:
Passed balls contributed to the last two losses. Errors by Overbay and Bautista contributed to losses earlier in the week. Normally good defensive players are now coughing it up in turn.
Scott Downs has not been sharp since he was on the DL.
Many fans still cling to the dream that this team, with Halladay, can compete in 2010. But when a team disappoints and under-achieves year after year then maybe it is our view of the team that is wrong. Can this team realistically hope to compete in 2010 without career years and no injuries?
If Matt Holliday can bring a return of a premium prospect what should Marco Scutaro bring? Both are free agents after this season. According to Fangraphs Holliday has 16.5 runs of offensive value and has delivered 29.6 runs above replacement overall. Scutaro has 11.5 runs of offensive value and 37.7 overall, so Scutaro is more valuable than Holliday. Will we get a premium prospect back if Scutaro is dealt?
Rolen's similar numbers are 11.5 and 27.7.
Scutaro might be traded because he will be a free agent. If Rolen is dealt then the team is truly dumping salary. Rolen is playing well, under control for next season, and the Jays have no replacement in-house.
Checking BPro's adjusted standing I see the Jays were underperforming by 5 games this morning, third worst in the majors behind Washington and almost tied with the Indians. This team is underperforming in a big way, they have scored 33 more runs thatn their opponents.
Cito is not a god. I am not blaming Cito for the teams performance but the Cito magic disappeared in May.
I expect this team to go on a run after the trade deadline. That is the Jays normal pattern and I expect this year to be no different.
I think JP is on shaky ground. Not only is the team under-performing but the fans are getting restless. Both Blair and Bastian said that they never saw so many anti-JP signs at Friday's game. This team is all about the marketing and the marketing needs a new face to give fresh hope to the ticket buying fanbase.
Cito is not a god. I am not blaming Cito for the teams performance but the Cito magic disappeared in May.
Some remnants of the Cito wizardry are still apparent:
He gave Lind a chance over Mencherson last year (big payoff); would that have happened with Gibbons? Possibly, but it sure didn't look that way. On the flip side, I can't condone his handling of Snider.
JP: I need a SS/leadoff hitter!
Cito: Done.
Without Cito giving Scoot the chance over Eck/Jmac, I can't see Scutaro EVER getting a chance as a starting SS, turning into an elite defensive player and taking base on balls out of the leadoff spot like there's no tomorrow.
Cito has also kept Rolen healthy (or at least it is reasonable to believe that Cito's handling of Rolen is better than Gibby's).
The "Cito effect" is probably over with (if it ever did exist)...but some of his decisions have been very good (from an outsider's perspective) and, on the whole, I'll take him over Gibbons. I still see this as a team with a decent shot at 85 wins this year (if Doc isn't traded). If Doc is traded, that Philly's package seems underwhelming (and yet the Phils rejected it). If Knapp isn't too seriously hurt, something like Drabek/Carrasco/Knapp/Brown & Donald seems like the kind of robbery that is fair to get the MVP of baseball. Adrian Gonzalez can go on the block tomorrow and the Yankees/Phillies and a bunch of other teams seemingly CAN't trade for him due to Teixiera & Howard. Same with Pujols if he were actually being shopped (though I'm sure the Yanks would find a way). EVERY team could use Halladay - he would become the number 1 on EVERY single team and playoff series are about aces, not backend starting depth (do the Phillies actually think their top 3/4 starters are good enough? Sure, their offense is loaded, but...). The price should be ridiculous.
I don't think Scutaro should be traded. Well, I do if the team can get the right package for him, but I don't think that there will be an offer out there that makes sense to the club. I'd rather see the team hold onto Scutaro and offer him arbitration rather than deal him for a C prospect. I can't imagine Scutaro accepting - and it's not going to cripple the team if he does - and I think the picks would be worth the risk. Orlando Cabrera resulted in compensation picks last year and, even if Scutaro's offense has returned to normal, his defensive improvements alone should entice a club to give him a 2-year deal.
As for today's game, Downs hasn't been sharp since returning from the DL, but I don't blame Cito or the management for running him out there today. If there are clubs interested in him then they may well have wanted to see an effective and sharp Downs before considering trading for him and the team needs to give him the opportunity to prove he can be effective post-injury. I thought Cito should have removed Tallet from the game sooner. I supported removing him after 6 strong, but if not then he should have been out of there once a couple of guys got on in the 7th. He gave the team a really strong start after an extended layoff and I'd rather have seen his arm preserved than Cito trying to squeeze one more inning out of him. With Halladay's outing yesterday the bullpen was well rested and did not need to be protected.
Scutaro is the 10th most valuable player in baseball
Based on his performance to date this season and making the appropriate postional adjsutments, I find that assessment reasonable.
Now, two very valid questions are: how will he perform for the balance of 2009 (which immediate suitors would care about) and how will he perform in 2010 and beyond (which longterm suitors will care about in the off-season)?
Is it a given that at some point soon he'll turn back into a pumpkin? Or will he merely regress yet remain eminently useful at a very low-bar position? With his 115 OPS+ he can concede a lot of offense and still be an asset.
I would imagine that any team that acquired him for their final 60 games would be well rewarded. Scutaro's pre-2009 reputation will certainly minimize the return he fetches, but a team like Boston -- said to be eyeing Cabrera! -- could do itself a lot of good bringing him in.
While I don't expect Scutaro to play like an MVP for the rest of his career, there are two things I think he has improved upon this year that make him valuable going forward: elite SS defense and an ability to draw walks. I'm sure his slugging will go down and so too will his OBP eventually, but Cito has mentioned a couple of times about a tweek to his batting adjustment that has helped him see better pitches, walk more etc. I think he has a good chance to have a decent (though not ridiculous) walk rate the next couple of years. A .750 OPS with excellent SS defense seems reasonable to expect from him in 2010 - I certainly would love for him to be retained for a couple of years...but it does not look like it's going to happen.
How about Rolen and Scutaro for Encarnacion and Bailey? Toss in Tallet or Purcey if necessary. The Reds could use some better SS production if they are making a run at a playoff spot (though they really shouldn't be trying to do that)...
Bit off topic but has anyone else noticed that Bautista's OBP > SLG?
No offense, but this has been evident for much of the season.
Historically, Bautista has always drawn walks at a better than league average rate and added to that some pop, making him a 330/420 type player. Useful, but perhaps one stretched as a starter.
This year, however, he seems to be employing the Lance Blankenship strategy of expressly trying to draw walks at the expense of power. So while his 2009 mid-90s OPS+ is entirely in keeping with the past three seasons, it understates his value because it is OBP-heavy (OPS+ equally weights OBP and SLG which is its biggest flaw).
His walk rate is slowing down as the season marches on, perhaps a sign that opposition pitchers are cottoning on to his strategy.
Based on his performance to date this season and making the appropriate postional adjsutments, I find that assessment reasonable."
You think that it is reasonable to say that Scutaro has been one of the top-10 players in all of baseball this year? Seriously? Better than Kevin Youkilis for example who ranks 3rd in OBP and 4th in SLG in the AL while playing both 1B and 3B? For players with 250 or more PAs, Scutaro os 85th in OPS. (35th in OBP). He's been the 7th best offensive SS in baseball. He's ranked ahead of Jason Bartlett who has had a way better year. (Scutaro is ranked high because he has, for some reason, the highest "replacement level" value as if Scutaro would be the single hardest player in baseball to replace.) This is what happens with unified statistics. They get absurd because they factor in the measurable (offensive stats) with whatever they want. (defense, positional scarcity, etc...)
"Now, two very valid questions are: how will he perform for the balance of 2009 (which immediate suitors would care about) and how will he perform in 2010 and beyond (which longterm suitors will care about in the off-season)?"
This is is career high in OBP and in SLG both by a wide margin and at age 33. Maybe he has learned to play at a different level entering his mid-30's, but I doubt anyone will risk a good prospect to find out. He has been a great surprise for the Jays and may result in them getting some value for him where they wouldn't a year ago. That, in itself, is great.
Oh, and I agree that Youkilis deserves bonus marks for playing two positions, something the Fangraphs model cannot adequately capture.
Scutaro can play like 6 or 7 positions...just because he hasn't doesn't mean he can't. Would he be more valuable if his elite defense could travel around the diamond. Sure. But we really haven't needed him to replace any of our other infielders (what with Bautista and the fact that we have had a surprisingly healthy group of hitters this year). Let's not forget that the amount that Scoot has played at SS this year has basically made himself his own backup...and that backup has like a .380 OBP with GG defence.
If Scoot would take 2 years at $10 mill...maybe even slightly more...I'd gamble on the chance that he can provide a nice ROI with his nice defence and walk rate.
Completely random thought for how to handle Doc (since I am holding steady to the delusion that the Jays can contend in 2010). DO NOT trade him this year or in the offseason. If Doc is traded, do it at next year's trade deadline. Now if Doc REALLY wants to be a good JP/Blue Jay soldier, this is what he agrees to:
Doc receives a chance at an extra $5 million in incentives in 2010 based on wins, innings, playoff performance and other achievements that cannot be hit until the last 2 months of the season (i.e. a minimum of 200 innings, 17 wins, playoff wins etc). For this incentive, Doc has to agree to another contract stipulation: if he is traded at the 2010 trade deadline, he AUTOMATICALLY receives a one year, $20 mill extension for 2011. Hence, any team that gets him receives Doc for 2 titles runs, same as this year. The team that acquires him are responsible for ALL of the incentives since none of them can be reached until after next July.
Now, I am of the opinion that the Jays will NOT receive any extra value for the fact that Doc is currently well below market value for a true ace. If market value is maybe $22-25 million for Doc, he is well below that and I think a team such as the Phillies would give up the exact same package if Doc were $20 mill/yr as opposed to $15 mill. With my proposal, 1 1/3rd years of Doc would cost $5.25 mill + $5 mill in incentives (if reached) for a team in 2010 and $20 million for 2011. That seems like a fair price for 2 title runs to me, since the acquiring team would be a contender obviously.
Also, it seems like Doc would probably go to a few teams right now but his preference may be the east coast; if this is true, he can invoke his NTC if he doesn't want to spend the end of 2010 and all of 2011 in LA, for example, just like he can now and STILL receive his $5 mill in 2010 incentives if reached (well, the innings and wins incentives) from the Blue Jays. So the only thing Doc loses is his ability to be traded at next year's deadline to a place he would only want to pitch for half a season. And surely this can be amended at next year's deadline if that is the ONLY way to get some value back for the Jays.
Now, obviously this benefits the Jays a lot more than Doc (unless Doc ONLY agrees to a trade at next year's deadline if the 2011 extension is voided)...but, really, he does not lose ANYTHING if he does not want to. If he wants to explore free agency after 2010, he simply does not accept a trade at next year's deadline OR he tells the GM that he will only accept a trade contingent upon the 2011 extension being voided and he still collects his 2010 incentives.
I am sure there is a simpler way to achieve the same goal, which is to keep Doc for a 2010 run and still maximize the return if he is traded next year, but this is all I have so far. It would take a miracle for all of this to happen...but, what exactly is there to gamble on other than Doc's honour and loyalty to the Blue Jays organization? I have way more faith in this than in the organization as a whole, the GM, the playoff chances in the AL East...
.289 - .358 - .463 - .818The Jays have rejected the Phillies' counter proposal of Happ, Carrasco, Donald and Taylor for Halladay. Well I would hope so. The Phillies aren't going to get Halladay by taking their two best prospects (Drabek and Brown) out of the mix. I think a compromise of Drabek, Taylor, Donald and Carrasco/Marson would be acceptable, but not ideal. I'm starting to think there might be better trade partners out there and that we might be shocked if or when a deal is struck. I'm guessing the Brewers are going to make a late push.
He wants to win and while some here are holding onto the delusion that this team could win in 2010, Halladay himself has pretty much said that he disagrees.
When did Roy Halladay say this? I heard him say "a bunch of things need to go right" in the AL East (just like JP), but I don't recall him stating that the Jays can't win in 2010. And even if Roy believes that, so what? Wasn't VW praising some new tool to measure defense even though we can all agree that he is not a good CF anymore? Whether or not the Blue Jays contend in 2010 has nothing to do with your interpretation of Roy Halladay's remarks.
What did they show before the game...that the Jays are like 10 games below .500 in games decided by less than 2 runs. If they are .500 in these games (and their strong run differential certainly suggests that they could have a much nicer record) they are 6 games above .500. If the reverse were true and the Jays were 10 games above .500 in these games, they are 16 games over .500 (which would require a disproportionate amount of good luck). A bunch of close losses to the AL East does not mean that the Jays, with a 2010 roster that should be better than the 2009 roster, cannot contend in 2010...
Jim, the product is not mediocre. The results may be due to the division and playoff format. That is not going to change for a while, obviously. But this has been around a top 10 team in baseball (and even better the last year and a half) since 2006 when JP got a payroll hike into the middle of the pack. Every time you see someone evaluating the club they do agree that a lot of stuff has to break right for a playoff spot...but the only ones who call them mediocre are Richard Griffin and myopic fans (or anti-fans) such as yourself. How many times have we heard Keith Law, Heyman, Crasnick, Bastian etc. say that they could win the AL Central or hear a random scout say that they would win the NL. It just so happens that 4 of the top 8-10 teams in baseball are in the AL East - let's not go overboard and act like this team is "average" because that simply is not true. Heck, a balanced schedule this year would have precluded many of these 2 runs or less losses to AL East foes and teams like Twins and White Sox would have looked "mediocre" for the last few years with a balanced schedule. Frankly, the fact that the top 4 teams in the AL for the last year and a half have all been in the AL East masks how good each one of the 4 teams actually is.
Kazmir is by no means a lock to be a top of the rotation starter going forward (obviously), Pena and Crawford are gone after 2010 (if they are not traded sooner), Iwamura is the same, Bartlett after 2011...let's see how long guys like Zobrist can keep playing over their heads and considering how poor Tbay has been from turning high ceiling (according to BA) prospects into productive ML players (other than their high draft picks) I am not sure how much better Tampa can be without a willingness to increase payroll by maybe $10-15 million every year as their 0-6 players require raises and other players creep closer to free agency...
I still do not see what is so special about Baltimore. Their team could be good, but let's see them develop some pitching first. And if the Jays do, in fact, move Halladay and others such as Rolen I think their is a good chance that their young talent will be as good or better than Baltimore's.
So, yes, the Jays play in the AL East...we all know that already.
Is there some very good reason why they are precluded from most discussions? (other than being in the same division, which hasn't completely held back speculation on the Big Two.)
It's not like Tampa hasn't got interesting young cheap pieces. i.e. Price, Beckham, etc. Or is it that they are well known to be committed to player development to stay alive and under no circumstance would they try to go for it by buying a Big Piece mid-season by mortgaging their future?
Or perhaps they have been explored at almost every turn and I've completely missed it.
Fortunately, they've got five hitters who can fill those positions: Saunders, Langerhans, Ken Griffey Jr., Russell Branyan, and Mike Carp.
Unfortunately, all five of those hitters bat left-handed. Just one right-handed batter -- though two would be preferable -- would give Don Wakamatsu a great deal more flexibility.
If the M's don't get a better offer for Balentin, why not see if they will bite on Ruiz and a inconsiquential prospect like Rei Gonzalez or Randy Boone?
If we're not going to use Ruiz, we might as well see if they think he'd help.
Given Rogers pattern on spending money and taking money away, I don't think anyone can predict what is coming next. They could get the notion that the only way to make more money is to compete financially, or do the complete opposite.
This is what is so frustrating. All indications were that the Jays would spend b/w $110-$120 million once VW's contract spiked in 2010. And now it looks like it may be down to $80 million, though Ricciardi told Rosenthal today in regards to moving Doc that "we are under no financial crunch whatsoever. We don't have to move any money at all. We can bring the whole team back and not have to worry about money." Imagine the Red Sox trying to compete by scaling payroll down to $100 million after being around $140 million. It just does not work and Ricciardi is being made the scapegoat here, in my opinion.
I am not sure if "bringing back" includes Scutaro and Barajas or a similar $2-3 million catcher. That would mean somewhere in the neighbourhood of $100 million next year (which would have been closer to $110 with Burnett). I guess for now all there is to hope for is that Beeston is "convinced" that the team, with 6 somewhat established starters (Doc/Marcum/Romero/Richmond/Cecil/Zep) is an impact bat away from contention. And then Beeston needs to convince Rogers.
This still seems fishy if a package of Happ/Drabek/Brown is enough to change the entire direction of the Jays for next year and beyond. I'm with KLaw: the Phillies don't have a single player impactful enough to consider moving Doc without a huge bounty of players coming back like the Dodgers do with Kershaw, for example. My bet is on Doc staying and, hopefully, that is an indication that Rogers will gamble on contention in 2010.
Even if the Jays are not close enough in 2010...considering that the A's got Wallace for Holliday and the Tribe got LaPorta for CC...it's not like the Jays will get diddly if they wait until next year's deadline.
Exactly. Drabek/Brown/Happ is the sort of deal I expect to get for Halladay next trade deadline.
The only thing I'll disagree with is I do not think the Jays would get a premier pitching prospect like Drabek at next year's deadline. However, something like Taylor/Brown & Carrasco+ is certainly attainable.
If I am a team like the Dodgers, I would think that Doc could cut up the NL much like Sabathia did for TWO PLAYOFF RUNS. Heck, Doc is better than Sabathia but I have to give CC credit for what he did in the NL last year. That was ridiculous. Honestly, teams are overvaluing their very good prospects as far as I am concerned. Drabek is NEVER going to be Doc. I fully understand an unwillingness to give up someone like Kershaw...but common, Drabek? He'll probably compensate Burnett's loss by racing the chilli peppers himself.
Really what I'd love to see is Sabean (last yr of his contract I believe) propose a package centred around Bumgarner. Halladay/Lincecum/Cain with a crappy offense wins the world series, in my opinion.
It means something when people are Tampa is da bomb because they are a "player development machine" (as has been said in one form or another by everyone from Kieth Law to you) and the Jays supposedly suck at it.
Tampa didn't develop Garza and Bartlett, yet Garza has been key to their success for a year and a half now. in other words, it's the difference in quality analysis, a knee-jerk assumptions (or parroting someone else's knee-jerk assumptions in some cases)
Now you are posting charts to argue things with me that I've never said. I don't think Tampa is a "player development machine", if I've said that please show me where and when.
The Jays have done a decent job of coming up with pitching depth and they developed Lind and Hill which is a nice duo. Tampa is better then the Jays because they have a better roster and right now and they have a better farm system. They are going to have some serious budget issues going forward as well, the difference is that the players they can't afford like Crawford have trade value while the players the Jays can't afford either don't have any (Wells, Ryan) or as much (Rolen).
I said Baltimore has the pieces to improve and rise in the division and so far you've told me that Toronto's rotation will be as good as Tampa's and that Tampa isn't a player development machine.
Are you arguing that the Jays have a brighter future right this second then Tampa does? How would that even be up for discussion?
Reasonable people don't assume a remark like that is literal.
It is true however, IMO, that the team has been remarkably unlucky over the last 3-4 years. Not so much in terms of injuries (except maybe in 2007) but in the overall sense of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.
So we can't take each other's posts literally? That makes discussion on the internet a bit difficult doesn't it?
I still don't see what has been 'unlucky'. The last 3 years they have won 87, 83 and 86 games. The evidence points pretty strongly to they are what the record says they are. Certainly there is luck in baseball but throw in the 100 games this year and that's 600 games that give you a pretty idea of how good this team is. Isn't it more likely that you are overrating the individual parts then there is some greater force holding them back over a 600 game stretch?
Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matsuz are the kind of premium talents you need to compete.
Just thought I'd point out that Markakis' current age-25 season is not as good as Rios' age-25 or age-26 seasons. On the other hand, Markakis will obviously explode while Rios is clearly finished. In Pessimism Nation, that's how we do.
hopeful outlook
If the hopeful outlook came with a realistic plan to improve the baseball club. Pretty much the hopeful outlook comes with every player having a good season will have the same season next year and every player having a bad season will have a better season. Every pitcher who is hurt will be healthy and every healthy pitcher will stay that way. The other teams will all stand still and Rogers will add 20+MM to the payroll.
As for Markakis, I didn't expect Rios to get worse that's why I don't expect Markakis to get worse. Markakis has a seemingly high baseball IQ while Rios has one of the lowest baseball IQs in the major leagues. 25 year olds generally get better, because Rios didn't that means Markakis won't? He might not get better, but he has nothing in common with Rios other then they both play the outfield and were good hitters when they were 25.
Wells I would imagine will settle in the next few seasons a little bit better then he is playing this year. Even at an .800 OPS he's still a liability. .750-.775 for a few seasons would be my guess.
He isn't hitting quite as well in his age 25 season, as previously.
After a roughly 8% walk rate at ages 22 and 23, he went crazy and walked 99 times at age 24. Now he's back to his old 8% schtick without an offsetting bump in batting average or power. Is he going to be great or merely good?
Without IBB's being a big part of the equation, you wonder how a batter's walk rate can change so dramatically year over year. Cal Ripken was like that. 102 walks in 1989. 57 walks in 1990. Ivan Rodriguez walked 53 times in 2003 and only 11 times two years later. What gives?
My uneducated guess would point to scouting reports changing from year to year. Which also may be tied to health of the player. Go aggressive after this guy. Stay away from him. Don't ever throw it to this zone on him. Pound him with pitch X here. Essentially, the pitcher's approach can dictate a lot on whether a guy walks as often from one season to the next. Or maybe it's his hitting coach. Or his girlfriend. Then there's the backup theory of dumb luck. And between a plausible theory and the General Theory of Chance you should be able to explain anything in baseball.
Well before this horrendous season PECOTA had Wells at a .765 projection for 2010. It had him at a weighted mean of .761 for this season with a 29% collapse rate....
I know that I'm doom and gloom... but how about this for a stat from BP yesterday:
Throughout 2002-2009, the Blue Jays have won 64 percent of the games that Roy Halladay has pitched and only 46 percent of the games that he has not pitched.
This year 58% when he pitches, 47% when he doesn't.
