Robert of Dudek returned to action the other day, and in the course of the ensuing discussion he noted:
91 mph is a below average MLB fastball now (for a righthander). Richmond is a serviceable starter, but it is very unlikely to become an ace.
Now he's probably right about that second sentence, but later for that. It's the notion of an average major league fastball that has caught my attention. Oh look! It's a Bright and Shiny Object - and away I go. I'm gonna need a Data Table....
I piped up in the first place because I thought it strange to see Richmond described, as he had been, as a "soft-tosser." I have perhaps a unique notion on these matters, but I like 91-92 mph fastballs. I actually prefer them, in fact. I am always doubtful of pitchers who throw 95 mph and up. I immediately suspect two things about each and every one of them: 1) you're probably going to hurt yourself throwing that hard, and 2) throwing that hard, you probably never had to learn how to pitch until you got to the majors. And that's not going to work against big league hitters. No way, no how.
Yeah, I know - Mark Prior and Daniel Cabrera (and Dustin McGowan and Billy Koch and... you get the idea!) have permanently warped my perspective on this business. I am aware - oh bitter irony - that Richmond is on the DL right now. But that's my ancient prejudice, which is probably neither here nor there. I do know why the scouts like these guys, of course. They're all thinking the same thing, which is basically this:
We can't teach you to throw 95 mph. But we can teach you how to pitch.
And indeed they can teach it, but it's still alarming how few guys who throw 95 can actually learn.
Well, let's look at some numbers. There are 95 right-handed pitchers who have made 10 starts in the majors this season, and FanGraphs provides the average fastball velocity for each and every one of them.(I am absolutely not going to compare the velocity of starters to relievers.)
Drum roll, please...
Is he a serviceable starter? Sure - his ERA+ of 117 ranks 16th among the 41 AL RH starters and tied for 33rd among the 95 major league right-handers.
Is he unlikely to become an ace? Yes - but they are all unlikely to become an ace. Until they actually do. Unless and until then - it's always very unlikely.
91 mph is a below average MLB fastball now (for a righthander). Richmond is a serviceable starter, but it is very unlikely to become an ace.
Now he's probably right about that second sentence, but later for that. It's the notion of an average major league fastball that has caught my attention. Oh look! It's a Bright and Shiny Object - and away I go. I'm gonna need a Data Table....
I piped up in the first place because I thought it strange to see Richmond described, as he had been, as a "soft-tosser." I have perhaps a unique notion on these matters, but I like 91-92 mph fastballs. I actually prefer them, in fact. I am always doubtful of pitchers who throw 95 mph and up. I immediately suspect two things about each and every one of them: 1) you're probably going to hurt yourself throwing that hard, and 2) throwing that hard, you probably never had to learn how to pitch until you got to the majors. And that's not going to work against big league hitters. No way, no how.
Yeah, I know - Mark Prior and Daniel Cabrera (and Dustin McGowan and Billy Koch and... you get the idea!) have permanently warped my perspective on this business. I am aware - oh bitter irony - that Richmond is on the DL right now. But that's my ancient prejudice, which is probably neither here nor there. I do know why the scouts like these guys, of course. They're all thinking the same thing, which is basically this:
We can't teach you to throw 95 mph. But we can teach you how to pitch.
And indeed they can teach it, but it's still alarming how few guys who throw 95 can actually learn.
Well, let's look at some numbers. There are 95 right-handed pitchers who have made 10 starts in the majors this season, and FanGraphs provides the average fastball velocity for each and every one of them.(I am absolutely not going to compare the velocity of starters to relievers.)
Drum roll, please...
Pitcher Team FBv ST IP ERA ERA+On the major league list, Richmond and his 91.5 heater is tied for 36th in a field of 95.If we were to restrict the list to AL starters, he's a little closer to the middle of the pack (he'd be 19th in a field of 41.) I'd say it's at least an average major league FB, or a shade above average. He throws harder than your average guy - he throws harder than a lot of guys who are better pitchers than he.
1 Jimenez COL 95.8 19 122.2 3.82 118
2 Verlander DET 95.5 19 122.1 3.38 133
3 Paulino HOU 95.3 10 55.0 7.04 59
4 Johnson FLA 95.0 19 128.0 2.74 152
5 Jackson DET 94.4 18 121.2 2.52 179
6 Beckett BOS 94.3 18 121.0 3.35 140
7 Hernandez SEA 94.2 19 132.1 2.51 170
8 Burnett NYY 94.2 18 113.1 3.81 116
9 Scherzer ARI 93.8 17 96.1 3.64 124
10 Greinke KCR 93.7 18 127.1 2.12 204
11 Penny BOS 93.7 17 93.2 4.71 99
12 Oswalt HOU 93.3 20 128.1 3.65 114
13 Zimmerman WAS 93.3 15 86.0 4.50 96
14 Garza TBR 93.0 18 115.2 3.73 120
15 Guthrie BAL 93.0 18 101.0 5.35 86
16 Cueto CIN 92.8 18 109.1 3.62 122
17 Halladay TOR 92.7 17 123.0 2.85 151
18 Lincecum SFG 92.6 19 134.2 2.27 189
19 Carmona CLE 92.6 12 60.2 7.42 61
20 Meche KCR 92.5 19 108.0 4.50 96
21 Chamberlain NYY 92.4 17 97.0 4.25 104
22 Carpenter STL 92.4 14 91.2 2.26 185
23 Cain SFG 92.2 18 117.0 2.38 180
24 Hammel COL 92.1 15 89.1 4.43 102
25 Harden CHC 92.0 15 80.0 5.06 87
26 Berken BAL 92.0 10 50.1 6.44 71
27 Gallardo MIL 91.8 18 114.2 3.22 131
28 Pelfrey NYM 91.8 18 103.0 5.07 83
29 Peavy SDP 91.8 13 81.2 3.97 95
30 Hochevar KCR 91.8 10 57.1 5.34 81
31 Billingsley LAD 91.7 20 127.0 3.76 111
32 Padilla TEX 91.7 16 96.1 4.67 95
33 Floyd CWS 91.6 18 115.2 4.44 104
34 Niemann TBR 91.6 16 91.2 3.73 121
35 Snell PIT 91.6 15 80.2 5.36 76
36 Volstad FLA 91.5 19 113.1 4.53 92
37 Richmond TOR 91.5 13 85.1 3.69 117
38 Maine NYM 91.5 11 61.2 4.52 93
39 Wellemeyer STL 91.4 18 100.1 5.56 75
40 Nolasco FLA 91.4 17 96.2 5.77 72
41 Contreras CWS 91.4 12 73.1 4.54 102
42 Jurrjens ATL 91.3 20 120.1 2.77 151
43 Davies KCR 91.3 14 79.2 5.76 75
44 Zambrano CHC 91.2 17 107.0 3.36 130
45 Feldman TEX 91.2 15 96.1 3.83 116
46 Vazquez ATL 91.0 18 119.0 2.95 142
47 Baker MIN 91.0 17 101.1 5.42 76
48 Porcello DET 90.9 16 87.0 4.14 109
49 Lackey LAA 90.9 12 73.0 4.93 91
50 Wainwright STL 90.8 19 130.1 3.04 137
51 Haren ARI 90.8 18 130.0 2.01 225
52 Correia SDP 90.8 18 104.0 4.50 83
53 Galarraga DET 90.7 18 99.0 5.09 88
54 Lohse STL 90.6 11 61.1 4.26 98
55 Marquis COL 90.5 18 123.1 3.65 124
56 Dempster CHC 90.5 17 105.2 4.09 107
57 Ohlendorf PIT 90.4 18 106.2 4.64 87
58 Blackburn MIN 90.3 18 123.1 3.06 134
59 Shields TBR 90.2 20 134.1 3.75 120
60 Millwood TEX 90.2 19 130.0 3.46 129
61 Pavano CLE 90.2 18 107.0 5.13 88
62 Harang CIN 90.1 19 114.0 4.18 106
63 Kawakami ATL 90.1 16 88.2 4.26 98
64 Gaudin SDP 90.1 15 87.1 4.84 77
65 Cook COL 90.0 19 114.2 3.85 117
66 Martis WAS 90.0 15 85.2 5.25 82
67 Ortiz HOU 90.0 10 73.0 4.44 94
68 Garland ARI 89.7 19 116.0 3.41 132
69 Wells CHC 89.6 12 76.0 2.72 161
70 Blanton PHI 89.4 17 103.1 4.44 97
71 McCarthy TEX 89.4 11 64.0 4.92 90
72 Cahill OAK 89.2 19 103.0 3.45 119
73 Stammen WAS 89.2 11 66.2 4.46 97
74 Looper MIL 89.1 19 107.1 4.95 85
75 Myers PHI 89.1 10 63.2 4.66 92
76 Colon CWS 89.1 11 55.1 4.23 109
77 Bergeson BAL 89.0 16 104.1 3.54 130
78 Slowey MIN 88.9 16 90.2 4.86 84
79 Pineiro STL 88.7 17 115.1 3.20 131
80 Weaver LAA 88.6 18 120.1 3.22 140
81 Karstens PIT 88.6 10 78.0 4.50 90
82 Lowe ATL 88.4 20 118.2 4.40 95
83 Palmer LAA 88.4 11 75.2 4.76 95
84 Owings CIN 88.3 16 94.2 4.94 90
85 Arroyo CIN 88.1 19 119.0 5.07 87
86 Bush MIL 88.1 14 81.0 5.67 74
87 Bannister KCR 87.8 17 103.1 3.66 118
88 Moehler HOU 87.6 15 79.2 5.08 82
89 Sonnanstine TBR 87.3 15 81.2 6.61 68
90 Uehara BAL 87.0 12 66.2 4.05 113
91 Suppan MIL 86.8 19 105.2 4.43 95
92 Geer SDP 85.8 15 92.2 6.02 62
93 Young SDP 85.8 14 76.0 5.21 72
94 Hernandez NYM 84.6 17 100.2 5.10 83
95 Wakefield BOS 72.7 17 108.2 4.31 109
Is he a serviceable starter? Sure - his ERA+ of 117 ranks 16th among the 41 AL RH starters and tied for 33rd among the 95 major league right-handers.
Is he unlikely to become an ace? Yes - but they are all unlikely to become an ace. Until they actually do. Unless and until then - it's always very unlikely.
