Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Examining the Entrails I: The Two Losing Streaks

Examining the Entrails I: The Two Losing Streaks

Since that hot 27-14 getaway of blessed memory, by going 17-32 since the Blue Jays have given 15 games back to .500. By strange coincidence, they gave away exactly 15 games to .500 on those two Road Trips From Hell - the 0-9 trip in late May and the 2-8 run that just concluded the first half.

So what the hell happened there, anyway?

The first one was truly horrific - the team scored just 23 times while allowing 53 runs. At that rate, you're actually fortunate that you can lose only 9 times in 9 games.

As it happens, three of the starts, by the rookies Cecil, Ray, and Romero (his first outing on returning from the DL) were pretty bad. But the Jays actually got five quality starts on this road trip, and it's a little unusual to go 0-5 when that happens. Three of the games (from Halladay, Tallet, and Janssen) were tight, low-scoring games - each time the offense came up one run short. In Tallet's other start, he left trailing 2-1 to the Braves - B.J. Ryan allowed the Orioles some insurance. Two other fine starts, from Halladay and Richmond (not actually a QS, he went just 5 IP) went to naught after catastrophic bullpen failures (Carlson blowing a five run lead against the Orioles, Camp and Frasor getting tagged for seven runs in a tie game against Atlanta.)

So while the bullpen certainly didn't distinguish itself, the pitching wasn't all that bad. The responsibility for this streak of ineptitude rests almost entirely on the offense. Scoring just 23 runs in 9 games is bad - bear in mind that 10 of those runs came in one game. Here's who did what:

May 19-27    G  AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS  RC RC/27
                                                                                       
Overbay      7  24   2   9   2  1  0   3  3   2   0  0  0  0  0   1  .375 .444 .542 .986   6  9.40
Wells        9  38   4  12   3  0  0   2  2   4   2  0  0  1  0   0  .316 .341 .395 .736   6  5.42
Hill         9  41   2  13   1  0  1   3  1   4   0  0  0  0  0   0  .317 .333 .415 .748   6  5.16
Scutaro      9  41   5  13   4  0  0   4  2   3   1  0  0  0  0   2  .317 .349 .415 .763   5  4.89
Millar       7  17   2   4   0  0  1   3  2   2   0  0  0  0  0   0  .235 .316 .412 .728   2  4.59
Snider       1   3   0   1   0  0  0   0  0   1   0  0  0  0  0   0  .333 .333 .333 .667   0  4.18
Bautista     5  14   2   3   2  0  0   2  3   5   0  0  0  0  0   1  .214 .353 .357 .710   2  3.88
Rolen        8  26   2   5   3  0  0   1  6   2   0  0  0  0  0   1  .192 .344 .308 .651   3  3.57
Barajas      8  29   2   7   1  0  0   2  2   4   0  0  0  0  0   0  .241 .290 .276 .566   2  2.82
Rios         8  36   0   9   2  0  0   1  0   5   0  1  0  0  1   2  .250 .270 .306 .576   2  1.98
Lind         9  35   2   4   2  0  0   1  3   9   0  1  0  0  1   0  .114 .205 .171 .377   1  1.02
Inglett      4   6   0   0   0  0  0   0  1   4   0  0  0  0  0   0  .000 .143 .000 .143   0  0.16
McDonald     2   1   0   0   0  0  0   0  0   0   0  0  0  0  0   0  .000 .000 .000 .000   0  0.00
Chavez       2   4   0   1   0  0  0   0  0   0   0  0  0  0  0   1  .250 .250 .250 .500   0  0.00
                                                                                
TEAM         9 319  23  81  20  1  2  22 25  47   3  2  2  1  2   8  .254 .311 .342 .653  33  3.49

That's pretty well what happened. Adam Lind had a lousy road trip (4-35) and the offense completely collapsed without him. Can it be that simple? I guess so, if no one picks up the slack.

Here's what the pitchers did:

May 19-27    G GS  W  L SV HLD BSv IP    H   R  ER  BB  SO HR HBP   ERA   BF   BAVG  OBP   SLG    OPS
                                                                                    
Halladay     2  2  0  0  0  0   0  14   13   3   3   3  11  1   0   1.93   56  .245  .286  .321   .606
Tallet       2  2  0  2  0  0   0  12   11   4   4   4  10  0   0   3.00   50  .244  .300  .311   .611
Janssen      1  1  0  1  0  0   0   6    8   3   3   1   0  0   0   4.50   26  .320  .346  .400   .746
Romero       1  1  0  1  0  0   0   5.1 11   5   5   1   3  3   0   3.08   27  .440  .462  .880  1.262
Carlson      5  0  0  1  0  0   0   5    5   6   6   1   2  0   1  10.80   21  .278  .333  .333   .667
Richmond     1  1  0  0  0  0   0   5    5   2   2   0   5  2   0   3.63   19  .263  .263  .316   .579
Frasor       4  0  0  0  0  0   0   4.2  4   4   4   2   6  1   0   7.71   20  .250  .316  .500   .816
Cecil        1  1  0  1  0  0   0   4.2 11   8   8   2   3  5   0   4.38   24  .500  .542 1.273  1.815
Ray          1  1  0  1  0  0   0   4.1  6   5   4   1   4  1   0   4.44   21  .300  .550  .333   .883
Ryan         5  0  0  0  0  1   0   4    7   4   4   2   4  1   0   9.00   20  .412  .450  .824  1.274
Wolfe        4  0  0  1  0  0   1   3.1  7   3   3   1   3  1   1   8.10   19  .412  .474  .647  1.121
League       2  0  0  0  0  0   0   2.2  3   1   1   0   3  0   0   3.38   10  .300  .300  .400   .700
Downs        2  0  0  0  0  0   1   1.2  5   2   2   0   1  0   0  10.80    9  .625  .556  .875  1.431
Camp         2  0  0  1  0  0   0   1.2  3   3   3   2   3  0   0  16.20   10  .375  .500  .625  1.125
                                                                                 
TEAM         9  0  9  0  1  2   1  74.1 99  53  52  20  58 15   2   6.30  332  .326  .364  .556   .920

The second bad spell, the one just concluded, was quite different. Over the last 10 games, 8 of them losses, the Blue Jays scored 41 runs and gave up 50. All the games were close - five games were decided by one run, five were decided by two runs. They could have easily come away with a split, or gone 4-6. They could have have actually gotten lucky for once in our lives, and fluked out a 6-4 mark. But no. They didn't.

Jul 3-12    G  AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS   RC  RC/27
                                                                                        
McDonald    3   8   2   3   1  0  1   2  0   1   0  0  0  0  0   0  .375 .375 .875 1.250   3  13.18
Wells      10  43   7  16   3  0  2   2  2   6   1  2  0  0  0   0  .372 .400 .581  .981   9   8.61
Scutaro     9  38   6  14   4  0  0   6  3   1   1  0  1  1  1   1  .368 .419 .474  .892   8   7.69
Bautista    8  17   1   6   1  0  0   0  3   5   0  0  0  0  0   1  .353 .450 .412  .862   3   7.10
Millar      4  14   3   4   2  0  0   1  3   3   0  0  0  0  0   0  .286 .412 .429  .840   3   7.01
Lind        9  41   3  10   2  0  3   6  2   9   0  0  0  0  0   1  .244 .279 .512  .791   5   4.46
Rios       10  44   5  12   3  0  1   9  1   7   1  1  0  0  0   1  .273 .289 .409  .698   5   3.60
Chavez      6  20   2   5   3  0  0   3  0   4   0  0  0  0  0   0  .250 .250 .400  .650   2   3.35
Hill       10  45   4  10   3  0  1   4  2   7   0  0  1  0  1   1  .222 .271 .356  .626   4   2.95
Rolen       9  39   2   9   3  0  0   5  2   4   0  1  0  1  0   0  .231 .262 .308  .570   3   2.51
Overbay     9  27   5   4   2  0  0   0  4   8   0  0  0  0  0   0  .148 .258 .222  .480   2   1.98
Dellucci    6  20   1   1   1  0  0   2  2   6   0  0  0  0  1   2  .050 .174 .100  .274   0   0.32
Barajas     6  21   0   2   0  0  0   1  0   3   0  0  0  0  0   0  .095 .095 .095  .190   0   0.25
                                                                                  
TEAM       10 377  41  96  28  0  8  41 24  64   3  4  2  2  3   7  .255 .303 .393  .696  43   3.84

On the mound:

Jul 3-12    G GS  W  L SV HLD BSv   IP    H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR HBP  ERA   BF BAVG  OBP   SLG   OPS
                                                                                   
Romero      2  2  1  0  0  0   0   14.1  14   6   6   6   8   2  1   3.77  58 .275 .362  .490   .852
Halladay    2  2  0  1  0  0   0   14    18   8   8   3  11   3  0   5.14  62 .305 .339  .475   .813
Rzepczynski 2  2  0  1  0  0   0   12     7   4   4   7  12   1  0   3.00  49 .167 .286  .286   .571
Cecil       2  2  1  0  0  0   0    9.2  13   7   7   7   9   1  0   6.52  49 .310 .408  .381   .789
Tallet      2  2  0  1  0  0   0    9    17  11  10   6   7   2  1  10.00  50 .395 .480  .581  1.061
Camp        4  0  0  1  0  1   0    6.2   5   2   1   3   5   0  0   1.35  28 .200 .286  .240   .526
League      5  0  0  1  0  0   0    6.1   6   2   2   3   6   1  0   2.84  26 .261 .346  .478   .824
Frasor      5  0  0  1  1  1   0    5.1   5   3   3   3   6   0  0   5.06  24 .238 .333  .286   .619
Carlson     6  0  0  1  0  1   0    5     3   1   1   2   4   1  0   1.80  20 .167 .250  .389   .639
Accardo     5  0  0  0  0  0   0    4.1   4   2   2   4   4   1  2   4.15  21 .267 .476  .533  1.010
Hayhurst    2  0  0  0  0  0   0    3.2   5   1   1   2   1   0  0   2.45  15 .385 .467  .615  1.082
Downs       2  0  0  0  1  0   0    1     1   0   0   1   2   0  0   0.00   5 .250 .400  .250   .650
Ryan        1  0  0  1  0  0   0    0.2   1   3   3   2   0   1  0   6.53   4 .500 .750 2.000  2.750
                                                                                
TEAM       10 10  2  8  2  3   0   92    99  50  48  49  75  13  4   4.70 411 .277 .370  .439   .808

So... now what?

I suppose I should kick in my own two cents on Halladay trade talk.

There are a few things I don't get. As far as I can tell, the impetus to make the trade does not seem to be coming from the player. And the organization's position going forward has been for some time that 2009 would be a year to retool and 2010 was the targeted year to make a run for the roses. It's hard to see how trading Halladay helps the team contend in 2010, and it's hard to see how not contending in 2009 and 2010 helps the GM continue in his position. Wouldn't he be better off keeping Halladay and trying to win something in 2010?

Unless he's under the impression that he can trade Halladay, finish fourth or fifth this year and the next, and still have his job in 2011.

I don't think he would have formed that impression all by himself.

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 07:45 PM EDT.

Examining the Entrails I: The Two Losing Streaks | 15 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Sano - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#202686) #

So what you're implying is that ownership has basically guaranteed his position for 2011 no matter the results?

Mylegacy - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#202690) #

On the two streaks from hell... shit happens. Baseball is a marathon - there will be streaks of good and bad - that's the game. Remember there are 30 teams that all want a WS ring - only 1 a year wins.

As to trading the "Franchise" we have to remember we get a first draft choice and a supplemental pick IF we keep him until we finish our playoff run in 2010. I STILL think we've got a tiny chance this year and a reasonable chance next year - with the team as it is now + either Marcum back and Cecil or Rzep taking a step forward to come near to Romero - this years BIG find.

However, part of me is facinated by what Doc might bring. Ironically, I'm looking forward to seeing how JP handles this situation - I think JP must know that not only his term here in TO is at stake BUT his long term future (if he has one) in baseball will be forever judged by what he does at this moment.

I might be the only one on planet earth who trusts JP to handle this - BUT I think he's up to this challenge. I'll be confident if he decides to keep Doc - and very interested to see what he gets for him - or a combination of our players - IF Doc, and possibly some others on the team - are traded.

No question this is a once in a career situation - the best pitcher of his generation and his fate is in JP's hands. Think I'll get me a double scotch (single malt - natch) and a big box of popcorn - sit back - and watch this unfold.

Forkball - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#202691) #

If you read the Blair ASG chat he says essentially that the change in ownership and change in revenues has Rogers cutting back on things.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#202692) #

Well, it looks like how Lind goes, so go the Jays. In wins 1.218 OPS, in losses .650 (568 spread) . You expect guys to do worse in losses but that seems extreme. For comparison...

Overbay 1048 vs 608 (440)
Barajas 895 vs 465 (430)
Rolen 1033 vs 666 (367)
Scutaro 933 vs 676 (257)
Wells is at 827 in wins vs 618 in losses (209 spread)
Rios 806 vs 655 (151)
Hill 870 vs 766 (104)

Hill is the best hitter in loses, Lind in wins. That 568 point spread is easily the largest though, with Overbay next at 440 and Barajas the only other regular over 400.

Sure is extreme eh? Last year Wells was the only one over 1000 in wins (1057) while he hit just for a 603 in losses. Not as extreme as Lind, but obviously a factor. Thus we gotta get Lind to focus better when the team is behind I guess :P

John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#202693) #

Well, if payroll drops to, say, $80 million then about $20 million has to be cut.
Guys making $10+ next year...
Halladay, Rolen, Rios, Wells.

Overbay is at $7 next year, no one else at $5+.

Scutaro ($1.1) and Barajas ($2.5) are free agents as is John McDonald ($1.9!). Bautista is the most expensive arbitration case at $2.4 right now with Tallet a possible one to climb over him thanks to the starting role he is in now.

My personal trade list would be lead by Rolen & Overbay as both are doing better than expected and are on the wrong side of 30. Dump them and you have enough left to hold Halladay. Clear out a few of the arbitration guys (Bautista, Tallet, Frasor) and you gain a few million more in breathing room. Only Rolen would be hard to replace of that group given the current organization strength and weaknesses plus what would likely be available in the bargin bin this winter. Scutaro should be resigned, Barajas ideally would be as well, but neither at over $4 million a year and neither gets more than 2 or maybe 3 (via options) years.

An $80 million payroll could be done without gutting the team amazingly enough. Having Romero, Marcum (arbitration but first year and with the injuries shouldn't get much), Cecil, and the rest should help too. Guess we'll see what comes.

ayjackson - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#202695) #

Tallet gets the Saturday afternoon versus Boston showcase start this week. I don't think they can afford to go to arbitration with him, when they have daRomero and faCastro able to do his job for the league minimum (assuming there really is a cash crunch - maybe Beeston's got his hand in the cookie jar). Anyways, Tallet is my top contender to be traded at the deadline.

Geoff - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#202696) #

And the only reason some of those guys hit as well as they do in losses is because often they don't realise they are going to lose that game.

And to Magpie's confusion about trading Roy, I don't think there can be any doubt that Roy has requested his exit. He's decided he needs to get going to a contender, that Toronto's chances at the playoffs for the next three years look dubious, particularly if he's been informed that the club must cut payroll. He wants to win and he's graciously putting up with all the hoopla to pay his debt to the organization who wants to get a maximum return while it pays its debt to its greatest player and honors his wish to be moved to a contender.

I'm afraid it's so. Sorry.

Geoff - Wednesday, July 15 2009 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#202697) #

This quote from Roy says all you need to know I believe:

"There is a lot there to look forward to," he said of the Blue Jays. "But I just think it's so hard for any of us to say that [the year we win] will be this year or this year or this year."

The Great Hero will champion this cause no more. Long live Aaron Hill.

jerjapan - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#202699) #

Tallet gets the Saturday afternoon versus Boston showcase start this week. I don't think they can afford to go to arbitration with him, when they have daRomero and faCastro able to do his job for the league minimum

Castro and Romero have both been struggling badly. I can't see any way that Romero contributes to the big league team going forward, and while Castro still has some upside, he's certainly not ready to help out signficantly.

Dave Till - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#202704) #

Cutting back on salaries because of poor attendance is the classic example of a negative feedback loop. If the team starts losing even more, even fewer people will go to games. The result is the Montreal Expos Death Spiral.

If ownership isn't interested in trying to win, I see no point in following the team any more.

John Northey - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#202705) #

Looking at Rogers first quarter results the media portion (sportsnet, city tv, Fan590, other radio & tv, Blue Jays) was a net loser by about $10 million in the first quarter. July 28th is the date they release 2nd quarter results (April/May/June) which will give a far stronger idea on the effect of the Jays on Rogers. Of note is that Rogers has a ton of liquidity at the moment, which means they have no shortage of available cash which traditionally means a corporation is looking to aquire, not get rid of, assets.

Given the media portion is losing money odds are we'll see Rogers start to clear out the losing portions. Will that include the Jays, and if so who will buy them? The rumour that Beeston wants to buy is interesting and if true then we'll probably see a push to trade Halladay with Wells mixed in so that Beeston will have a clean payroll (outside of Rios & Hill who are very affordable) come 2011 and a cleaner one for 2010 if others like Rolen & Overbay can be sent away. It would suck to be in rebuilding (again) mode but with the young pitching here stuff could happen quickly.

Yes, I was one of those oddballs who kept thinking the Expos had a chance in the early 2000's.

Frank Markotich - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#202706) #

Attendance and advertising revenue is down because of the economy, so indications are that in the time-honoured corporate tradition the response will be mindless short-term cost cutting, since this quarter's bottom line is the main priority.

I agree 100% with every word Dave Till said above.

jmoney - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#202707) #

Without knowing the people involved. I'm assuming that Ted Rogers was a fan of the Blue Jays and the city of Toronto. With his passing the team is now under the eye of a boardroom that is facing a recession and looking to cut the fat wherever they can.

I agree with the sentiment that there isn't much point in following a team that has no real commitment from management to win. The Jays could end up like the American league version of the Marlins. Which isn't that bad if we win a World Series every five or six years.

Ron - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#202745) #

I agree with the sentiment that there isn't much point in following a team that has no real commitment from management to win. The Jays could end up like the American league version of the Marlins. Which isn't that bad if we win a World Series every five or six years.

I could only wish the Jays would become the AL version of the Marlins. If this was the case, that means the Jays would win the World Series and have a smart front office. In the past 12 seasons (not including the current season), only 1 team has won more World Series than the Marlins.

Geoff - Thursday, July 16 2009 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#202746) #

Has me thinking that if Florida stepped up with an offer for Roy, Rolen and Downs, what shot would they have for more postseason glory?

I'd think they would be a very good but not a great team, with a fighting chance to do damage in the postseason. But they have pressing needs for leadership with the front and back end of the pitching staff, and a slugger and defender for the lineup (not to mention depth).

When is their new stadium ready for them? They likely won't beef their payroll until then, but they certainly do well lying in the bushes.

Examining the Entrails I: The Two Losing Streaks | 15 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.