It's pretty obvious that the Blue Jays 2009 season so far breaks
nicely into two quite distinct halves: that rollicking 27-14 start
(good times!) and the alarming 17-32 run that took them to this week's
Break in the Action.
So let's look at the Happy Start. In their first 41 games, the Jays scored a stunning 234 runs (5.70 per game). No one could have seen that coming, especially if advised that Vernon Wells and Alex Rios weren't going to be doing much of anything during this period. Now, one of the keys to this remarkable offensive performance was three players - Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Marco Scutaro - performing at a level none of them had ever managed to do before - at least not for a full year in the major leagues:
The optimistic point of view at this point was to note that even if some of those players came crashing back to earth, there was plenty of evidence that Wells and Rios were both capable and likely to pick up the slack. We'll see how that worked out.
Meanwhile the pitchers were allowing an impressively stingy 174 runs (4.24 per game.) - this despite two of the original five starters and the bullpen's closer not making it out of April. Jesse Litsch pitched poorly in two starts and went on the DL - David Purcey had a couple of decent outings, but after walking 17 hitters in 25.2 IP Cito Gaston (whose patience with struggling pitchers is notoriously non-existent) had seen enough. The Jays used nine - nine! - different starters in those first 41 games. Four were rookies, all of whom acquitted themselves well - another was a bullpen mainstay pressed into duty. Roy Halladay held it all together, of course, winning eight of his first nine starts.
So where did they go from there? Besides off the cliff?
The offensive falloff was the most dramatic. By quite a bit. In the next 49 games, the team scored just 203 times (4.12 per game). Observe:
Adam Lind and Marco Scutaro both saw their production sink significantly. But no one can complain - both men continued to be very productive hitters. They were simply not as brilliant as he had been over the first six weeks. Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay basically carried on in exactly the same fashion as they had over the season's first segment. That was all good news.
Vernon Wells also carried on exactly as he had over the first 41 games, however, and that was bad news. The only time Wells has been effective has been on the road - you may have noticed yesterday that during the two prolonged road losing streaks, Wells was hitting quite well indeed (28-81, .346). But he's been simply awful in his home park, and his ongoing struggles proved especially unfortunate because Aaron Hill came crashing back to earth. Hill has continued to hit home runs all year long, but he really hasn't done much else since mid-May.
The news was just as bad for the other hitters. Alex Rios did not pick up his production - indeed he fell back a little, and continued to make observers wonder just what on earth he's actually thinking about while the games are going on. And while Travis Snider was the weakest bat on the team during the season's first part, after he went down to AAA his roster spot was taken first by Joe Inglett, then by Russ Adams, and finally by David Dellucci. All of whom have been significantly worse than Snider.
And to complete our Tale of Woe - Rod Barajas and Kevin Millar simply went over the cliff and crashed onto the rocks below. All you can do is avert your eyes.
The pitching fell off as well, but still managed to be better than league average
The strength of the staff, for the most part, has been the patchwork starting rotation. Halladay, Romero, and Richmond have all pitched very well. And this being the 2009 Blue Jays, all of them have made a trip to the DL. Tallet has been adequate for the most part - he's had a few pretty grisly outings when he simply can't throw a strike when he needs to. But the bullpen is becoming an issue. I should acknowledge that this was foreseen by some of you - Glevin, Pistol, Mike Green - at the beginning of the year. Right when I was explaining that the young starters were not going to be the utter disaster many had foreseen. Seeing as how Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond have both been better than the A.J. Burnett of last year or this, I think that's working out so far.
The same seven relievers returned from last season, but B.J. Ryan had completely lost his effectiveness and Brian Tallet was needed in the rotation. Scott Downs slipped smoothly into the closer's role (and being a Blue Jay pitcher somehow managed to hurt himself as well) but the ensuing chain reaction has been unfortunate. Where last year there were three effective southpaws getting the ball to the closer, this year there has been but one and Jesse Carlson, it turned out, couldn't carry that load. After a solid start, Carlson was awful, posting an 8.72 ERA over 24 outings (May 5-June 30). On the whole, the three returning right handers have been about as effective as they were last season. Brandon League has been erratic, and definitely only useful for one inning at a time, but Jason Frasor, in particular, and Shawn Camp as well have both been better than they were last year. Tallet and Ryan have been replaced by a pair of right-handers, Jeremy Accardo and Dirk Hayhurst. Both have been quite all right, but I suspect Gaston would prefer some left-handed support for Carlson.
So now what, Cito? As a manager, Gaston has in the past demonstrated one persistent failing - he can be far too patient with his struggling hitters. This weakness does not afflict him when it comes to pitchers, not at all. Gaston will decide very, very quickly that a pitcher is not useful. It's hard to see where he's ever been wrong about a pitcher he decided was no longer any good - Danny Darwin, maybe? - and this is probably why we haven't seen David Purcey despite all the opportunities that have arisen to give him another shot.
But if a hitter has produced for Gaston in the past, he assumes that he'll be able to do it again. He sticks with him. This has burnt him before, repeatedly. On the other hand, it's not like Vernon Wells or Alex Rios have ever won Gaston a World Series ring. So while he was surely reluctant to do so, Gaston has already removed both his high paid outfielders from the heart of the order.
Of Gaston's two conspicuous strengths, off his past performance, one has been his capacity to bring order to situation that is confused and murky. The non-stop injuries to the pitching staff have made that difficult - with the exception of Litsch's injury, the health problems have been fairly short term, which means the adjustments and replacements have been going on non-stop. He's lost three pitchers to the DL for injuries that didn't even involve their pitching arms (Halladay, Romero, Downs.)
Gaston's other virtue, historically, has been his ability to identify useful relief pitchers and get them in the roles they're best suited for. He had his bullpen humming along quite nicely last season, but the loss of Tallet and Ryan this season has turned his current pen into a work in progress. There's been a fair bit of experimentation, and he's bumped his head on the limits of some of his pitchers - Carlson and League in particular. I do think he's almost got that sorted out.
And I'm telling you this - the second half will be better than the first. Significantly better.
Unless there's a trade... in which case, all bets = OFF.
So let's look at the Happy Start. In their first 41 games, the Jays scored a stunning 234 runs (5.70 per game). No one could have seen that coming, especially if advised that Vernon Wells and Alex Rios weren't going to be doing much of anything during this period. Now, one of the keys to this remarkable offensive performance was three players - Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Marco Scutaro - performing at a level none of them had ever managed to do before - at least not for a full year in the major leagues:
The optimistic point of view at this point was to note that even if some of those players came crashing back to earth, there was plenty of evidence that Wells and Rios were both capable and likely to pick up the slack. We'll see how that worked out.
To May 18 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC RC/27
Lind 39 152 25 49 14 0 7 35 19 30 0 0 0 0 0 4 .322 .398 .553 .950 33 8.11
Hill 41 177 30 62 6 0 11 34 11 27 2 1 0 2 1 8 .350 .387 .571 .958 36 7.76
Rolen 36 132 22 42 10 0 3 15 12 17 2 0 0 1 2 0 .318 .381 .462 .843 25 6.96
Scutaro 41 155 36 44 10 1 5 20 35 19 3 2 2 2 1 5 .284 .415 .458 .873 31 6.87
Bautista 26 73 15 22 4 0 1 6 15 20 3 0 3 0 1 2 .301 .427 .397 .824 14 6.60
Overbay 28 93 13 23 8 0 5 19 17 16 0 0 0 2 0 2 .247 .357 .495 .852 17 6.09
Barajas 32 113 14 35 11 0 3 22 6 16 0 0 2 4 1 0 .310 .339 .487 .825 20 5.97
Rios 41 170 23 45 9 2 5 21 14 30 3 0 0 3 3 6 .265 .326 .429 .756 23 4.66
Millar 19 67 10 20 5 0 2 13 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 5 .299 .338 .463 .801 8 4.58
Wells 41 170 27 44 10 1 5 21 15 17 6 0 0 1 0 7 .259 .317 .418 .735 22 4.34
Snider 31 96 12 23 6 0 3 12 7 24 1 0 2 0 0 2 .240 .291 .396 .687 11 3.69
Barrett 7 18 3 3 0 0 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 .211 .333 .544 1 2.21
McDonald 16 17 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .235 .235 .235 .471 1 1.82
Chavez 9 29 1 7 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 .241 .241 .241 .483 1 1.37
TOTAL 41 1462 234 423 93 4 51 222 156 235 20 3 10 15 9 43 .289 .358 .463 .821 240 5.75
Meanwhile the pitchers were allowing an impressively stingy 174 runs (4.24 per game.) - this despite two of the original five starters and the bullpen's closer not making it out of April. Jesse Litsch pitched poorly in two starts and went on the DL - David Purcey had a couple of decent outings, but after walking 17 hitters in 25.2 IP Cito Gaston (whose patience with struggling pitchers is notoriously non-existent) had seen enough. The Jays used nine - nine! - different starters in those first 41 games. Four were rookies, all of whom acquitted themselves well - another was a bullpen mainstay pressed into duty. Roy Halladay held it all together, of course, winning eight of his first nine starts.
Apr 6-May 18 G GS W L SV HLD BSv IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF BA OBP SLG OPS
Halladay 9 9 8 1 0 0 0 68 63 23 21 8 57 5 2 2.78 269 .244 .272 .368 .641
Richmond 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 40 39 21 19 16 31 6 0 4.28 173 .250 .320 .455 .775
Tallet 10 6 2 1 0 0 0 42.1 33 23 22 21 31 7 1 4.68 184 .206 .301 .431 .732
Purcey 5 5 0 2 0 0 0 25.2 28 22 20 17 26 4 1 7.01 119 .283 .390 .495 .885
Romero 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 21 19 4 4 4 13 1 1 1.71 81 .250 .296 .368 .665
Cecil 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 20 17 5 4 4 15 2 3 1.80 80 .233 .300 .342 .642
Ray 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 20 17 10 8 5 9 3 2 3.60 80 .239 .304 .423 .726
Litsch 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 9 14 9 9 1 8 4 1 9.00 42 .350 .381 .725 1.106
Burres 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 6.1 12 12 10 5 4 0 0 14.21 37 .375 .459 .563 1.022
Carlson 21 0 1 2 0 5 2 21 17 8 8 7 12 2 2 3.43 88 .221 .302 .338 .640
Downs 18 0 0 0 5 3 0 19.1 13 5 4 2 22 1 1 1.86 76 .178 .211 .247 .457
League 16 0 1 1 0 1 2 18 16 9 9 8 13 1 1 4.50 74 .250 .342 .359 .702
Camp 13 0 0 1 0 2 0 15 16 8 7 7 7 2 0 4.20 66 .271 .348 .475 .823
Frasor 16 0 4 0 1 2 1 14 9 1 1 1 9 0 0 0.64 49 .188 .204 .208 .412
Murphy 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 4 4 4 8 6 1 0 3.18 45 .111 .267 .278 .544
Ryan 7 0 1 0 2 0 2 6.2 8 7 7 6 6 2 1 9.45 32 .320 .469 .600 1.069
Bullington 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 2 2 6 5 0 0 3.00 31 .304 .433 .435 .868
Wolfe 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 3 0 0 3.00 12 .273 .250 .364 .614
TEAM 41 41 27 14 8 13 7 373.2 340 174 160 127 284 41 16 3.85 1565 .242 .309 .402 .710
So where did they go from there? Besides off the cliff?
The offensive falloff was the most dramatic. By quite a bit. In the next 49 games, the team scored just 203 times (4.12 per game). Observe:
May 19-Jul 12 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC RC/27
Lind 48 191 25 56 13 0 12 24 17 33 1 1 0 0 3 5 .293 .360 .550 .910 36 6.83
McDonald 15 17 2 6 1 0 1 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 .353 .353 .588 .941 3 6.71
Rolen 41 162 23 52 16 0 3 20 13 16 2 2 0 2 2 2 .321 .374 .475 .850 29 6.55
Overbay 44 131 18 33 10 1 4 22 28 27 0 0 0 1 0 3 .252 .381 .435 .816 23 5.96
Scutaro 48 202 28 59 17 0 1 19 21 22 5 2 3 2 1 5 .292 .358 .391 .749 29 4.93
Bautista 30 70 9 16 3 1 1 5 16 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 .229 .372 .343 .715 10 4.57
Wells 49 195 26 52 13 1 4 17 13 27 7 2 0 3 0 3 .267 .308 .405 .713 25 4.28
Snider 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 4.18
Hill 48 213 22 52 10 0 9 26 11 31 1 0 1 1 2 4 .244 .286 .418 .704 25 3.87
Rios 47 193 20 50 13 0 5 25 11 32 11 3 0 0 2 8 .259 .306 .404 .710 22 3.86
Chavez 20 61 4 17 4 0 2 8 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 2 .279 .279 .443 .721 7 3.79
Millar 30 91 12 18 4 0 2 9 14 21 0 0 0 0 0 1 .198 .305 .308 .612 9 3.21
Barajas 40 129 10 26 2 0 5 18 6 24 1 0 0 0 0 0 .202 .237 .333 .570 11 2.60
Adams 8 20 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 .238 .200 .430 1 1.59
Inglett 15 24 1 4 0 0 0 1 2 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 .167 .231 .167 .397 1 1.48
Dellucci 6 20 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 6 0 0 0 0 1 2 .050 .174 .100 .274 0 0.32
TOTAL 49 1742 203 447 107 3 49 198 155 294 29 11 7 9 11 37 .257 .320 .406 .726 224 4.35
Adam Lind and Marco Scutaro both saw their production sink significantly. But no one can complain - both men continued to be very productive hitters. They were simply not as brilliant as he had been over the first six weeks. Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay basically carried on in exactly the same fashion as they had over the season's first segment. That was all good news.
Vernon Wells also carried on exactly as he had over the first 41 games, however, and that was bad news. The only time Wells has been effective has been on the road - you may have noticed yesterday that during the two prolonged road losing streaks, Wells was hitting quite well indeed (28-81, .346). But he's been simply awful in his home park, and his ongoing struggles proved especially unfortunate because Aaron Hill came crashing back to earth. Hill has continued to hit home runs all year long, but he really hasn't done much else since mid-May.
The news was just as bad for the other hitters. Alex Rios did not pick up his production - indeed he fell back a little, and continued to make observers wonder just what on earth he's actually thinking about while the games are going on. And while Travis Snider was the weakest bat on the team during the season's first part, after he went down to AAA his roster spot was taken first by Joe Inglett, then by Russ Adams, and finally by David Dellucci. All of whom have been significantly worse than Snider.
And to complete our Tale of Woe - Rod Barajas and Kevin Millar simply went over the cliff and crashed onto the rocks below. All you can do is avert your eyes.
The pitching fell off as well, but still managed to be better than league average
May 19-Jul 12 G GS W L SV HLD BSv IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Tallet 11 11 3 5 0 0 0 61.1 65 37 35 30 47 5 2 5.14 274 .272 .354 .389 .743
Romero 10 10 5 3 0 0 0 66 61 25 25 26 56 10 2 3.41 272 .253 .330 .440 .769
Halladay 8 8 2 2 0 0 0 55 55 18 18 9 49 5 0 2.95 220 .264 .291 .351 .642
Richmond 9 6 2 3 0 0 0 45.1 33 16 16 14 40 9 0 3.18 176 .204 .267 .420 .687
Janssen 5 5 2 3 0 0 0 26 40 19 18 7 11 4 2 6.23 123 .354 .398 .593 .991
Cecil 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 25 42 23 23 13 18 6 0 8.28 123 .385 .447 .642 1.089
Rzepczynski 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 12 7 4 4 7 12 1 0 3.00 49 .167 .286 .286 .571
Mills 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 7.2 14 12 12 6 9 4 0 14.09 42 .400 .476 .800 1.276
Ray 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 4.1 6 5 4 1 4 1 0 4.44 21 .300 .333 .550 .883
Camp 18 0 0 3 0 1 0 26.2 23 11 10 10 23 1 1 3.38 110 .235 .309 .337 .646
League 22 0 0 3 0 4 1 24.2 25 15 15 6 26 4 2 5.47 103 .266 .324 .479 .802
Carlson 23 0 0 2 0 1 0 20.1 26 16 14 8 18 1 1 6.20 95 .317 .368 .463 .832
Frasor 20 0 1 2 2 2 1 19 16 8 8 9 20 1 1 3.79 80 .235 .329 .309 .638
Hayhurst 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.2 16 3 3 8 9 1 2 1.84 66 .296 .394 .444 .838
Ryan 18 0 0 1 0 2 0 14 14 8 8 11 7 3 0 5.14 63 .280 .403 .540 .943
Accardo 11 0 0 0 1 0 0 10.1 9 4 4 8 9 2 2 3.48 46 .257 .413 .457 .870
Downs 10 0 1 0 4 0 1 9 8 2 2 3 8 0 0 2.00 37 .242 .297 .303 .600
Wolfe 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 5.1 10 6 6 2 5 3 1 10.12 29 .417 .464 .875 1.339
TEAM 49 49 17 32 7 10 4 439.2 465 232 225 177 364 61 16 4.61 1902 .277 .346 .450 .796
The strength of the staff, for the most part, has been the patchwork starting rotation. Halladay, Romero, and Richmond have all pitched very well. And this being the 2009 Blue Jays, all of them have made a trip to the DL. Tallet has been adequate for the most part - he's had a few pretty grisly outings when he simply can't throw a strike when he needs to. But the bullpen is becoming an issue. I should acknowledge that this was foreseen by some of you - Glevin, Pistol, Mike Green - at the beginning of the year. Right when I was explaining that the young starters were not going to be the utter disaster many had foreseen. Seeing as how Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond have both been better than the A.J. Burnett of last year or this, I think that's working out so far.
The same seven relievers returned from last season, but B.J. Ryan had completely lost his effectiveness and Brian Tallet was needed in the rotation. Scott Downs slipped smoothly into the closer's role (and being a Blue Jay pitcher somehow managed to hurt himself as well) but the ensuing chain reaction has been unfortunate. Where last year there were three effective southpaws getting the ball to the closer, this year there has been but one and Jesse Carlson, it turned out, couldn't carry that load. After a solid start, Carlson was awful, posting an 8.72 ERA over 24 outings (May 5-June 30). On the whole, the three returning right handers have been about as effective as they were last season. Brandon League has been erratic, and definitely only useful for one inning at a time, but Jason Frasor, in particular, and Shawn Camp as well have both been better than they were last year. Tallet and Ryan have been replaced by a pair of right-handers, Jeremy Accardo and Dirk Hayhurst. Both have been quite all right, but I suspect Gaston would prefer some left-handed support for Carlson.
So now what, Cito? As a manager, Gaston has in the past demonstrated one persistent failing - he can be far too patient with his struggling hitters. This weakness does not afflict him when it comes to pitchers, not at all. Gaston will decide very, very quickly that a pitcher is not useful. It's hard to see where he's ever been wrong about a pitcher he decided was no longer any good - Danny Darwin, maybe? - and this is probably why we haven't seen David Purcey despite all the opportunities that have arisen to give him another shot.
But if a hitter has produced for Gaston in the past, he assumes that he'll be able to do it again. He sticks with him. This has burnt him before, repeatedly. On the other hand, it's not like Vernon Wells or Alex Rios have ever won Gaston a World Series ring. So while he was surely reluctant to do so, Gaston has already removed both his high paid outfielders from the heart of the order.
Of Gaston's two conspicuous strengths, off his past performance, one has been his capacity to bring order to situation that is confused and murky. The non-stop injuries to the pitching staff have made that difficult - with the exception of Litsch's injury, the health problems have been fairly short term, which means the adjustments and replacements have been going on non-stop. He's lost three pitchers to the DL for injuries that didn't even involve their pitching arms (Halladay, Romero, Downs.)
Gaston's other virtue, historically, has been his ability to identify useful relief pitchers and get them in the roles they're best suited for. He had his bullpen humming along quite nicely last season, but the loss of Tallet and Ryan this season has turned his current pen into a work in progress. There's been a fair bit of experimentation, and he's bumped his head on the limits of some of his pitchers - Carlson and League in particular. I do think he's almost got that sorted out.
And I'm telling you this - the second half will be better than the first. Significantly better.
Unless there's a trade... in which case, all bets = OFF.
