Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 71 Games Down

71 Games Down - Jays 1 Game Out Of Playoffs

Yup, still just 1 game out of the playoffs and just 10 games from the mid-season point.

So, being so close to mid-season what do we get if we double Jay statlines? Just going with basic stats for fun here.

HR Leader: Hill on pace for 30, Lind 28, Rios/Overbay both going for 18
RBI Leader: Lind & Hill both shooting for 96, Overbay for the 80's, Rios & Barajas for the 70's
Runs: Scutaro 106, Lind, Wells, and Hill are all going for the mid-80's.
Hits: Hill has a shot at 200 still (186 if you double his current total)
Doubles: 3 guys are shooting for 40 (Lind, Rolen, Scutaro) with Rios close behind (just needs one more over the next 10 games to be on pace) as is Wells (17 right now) and Overbay (16).

Pitching...
Wins: Halladay shooting for 20, then Frasor & Richmond for 10 - yes, no one has more than 1/2 the wins of Halladay with Romero & Tallet (4 each) the only others over 2.
Strikeouts: Only Halladay, Richmond, Tallet, and Romero have shots at 100+ K's right now, no one else has K'd 30.
Walks: The flipside - only Tallet has walked more than 30 (on pace for around 80), Richmond more than 20 (23, pace to be under 50). Everyone else is 19 or less.

As to the good ol' rankings... the Jays are
#1 in the AL for AB, H, 2B
#2 for Average
#3 for total bases
#4 for sac flies & OPS
#5 for runs, HR, BB, OBP, Slg%

Pitching...
#1 for IP, SO/BB ratio
#2 for wins, walks, BB/9 IP
#3 for strikeouts, shutouts
#4 for runs allowed/game, H/9 IP
#6 for runs allowed

Interesting that they can still do so well pitching wise with 6 starters (including their pre-season top 4) on the DL.

Other baseball news...
Manny is almost back - his return is July 3rd.
Tony LaRussa has 2500 wins #3 all time for managers.
AJ Burnett has his suspension reduced to a useless 5 games
CC Sabithia is hurt, but felt he didn't have to leave the game.
Dice-K is on the DL and it looks to be for awhile.

While you never want guys getting hurt it is nice to see that not only the Jays get hurt in the AL East.

Posted by John Northey on Monday, June 22 2009 @ 01:22 PM EDT.

71 Games Down - Jays 1 Game Out Of Playoffs | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Pistol - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#201682) #

AJ Burnett has his suspension reduced to a useless 5 games

Well, that still, at least, backs up a start by one day.

And I believe that he forfeits that money which works out to several hundred thousand which isn't exactly chump change.

AWeb - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#201683) #

Doubling the totals at game 71 is a pretty conservative projection method...that's knocking 20 games off the season for these guys. For something like RBI and runs, that's 10-15 for guys who play every day. Injuries aside, I'll take the "over" on Lind getting 96 RBIs, and possibly Hill as well (although his totals depend more on Scutaro's continued excellence).

Looking at the more advanced stats, BABIP shows that only Scott Rolen has been especially "hit lucky" this year, with a BABIP of .361 (.314 career). Scutaro has been on the lucky side too, but not outrageously, "that can't possibly happen for the second half too" lucky. It's hard to imagine Scutaro maintaining a .400 OBP, but even a .350 OBP would be a great help from him. A small drop-off from the left side of the infield would be offset quickly by Wells performing at the plate at "bad Wells" levels for the second half - i.e., a league average hitter. I like the chances of the Jays offense remaining one of the top 5 in the league in the second half.

Both Lind and Hill have a good shot at well over 300 Total bases, and could break into the Jays top-ten single seasons if they keep their current pace. In the same stat, Wells will move into second in Jays history unless he's injured/benched (needs only 50 to get past Fernandez and Bell). I don't see many other major movements in franchise leaderboards in the second half though. It'll be another year or two before Rios and Hill start showing up on the counting stats top-ten lists.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#201684) #

Tony LaRussa has 2500 wins #3 all time for managers.

That didn't sound right, so I looked it up at BBRef -- and it is right, by gosh. In fact, did anyone out there realize that three of the top five managerial win totals of ALL TIME are currently held by active managers -- Larussa, Cox and Torre are 3-4-5, and if you don't count Mack's absurd owner/manager half-century, it's actually three of the top four ... and five of the top 25, with props to Sweet Lou Piniella (14th and not moving from that spot for a while) and Sour Jim Leyland (25th, despite a career mark under .500, with a shot at moving all the way to 21st by the end of this season.) ... Leyland is fourth in career wins among managers under .500, with Mack of course, again solidly (if somewhat ridiculously) in first.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#201685) #

TRIVIA TIME ...
Just two managers in big league history won at least 800 games as a skipper AND had a career winning percentage of better than .600. One should be easy, one not so much, but both are enshrined Hall of Famers. A Batter's Box No-Prize (and maybe a cuttlefish) to the first person to name both without looking them up.

mathesond - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#201688) #

I'll go with Miller Huggins and, I dunno, I was thinking Casey Stengel but those mets teams probably brought hit career percentage down. How about Bobby Cox?

mathesond - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#201689) #

And if Wikipedia is to be believed, I am wrong on both counts. As to the 2 correct answers, I had no idea one of them was ever a manger, much less one that enjoyed that level of success

Sano - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#201690) #

Are people happy with the lineup as its currently being filled out? When Cito reshuffled things I expected that Hill and Lind would occupy the central 3/4 places. Why not put Rolen up in second. Take advantage of his high average/OBP and enhances the power from the middle order. Something like:

Scutaro
Rolen
Hill
Lind
Wells
Overbay
Rios
Barajas
DH

And having done that I realise just how badly we need a better hitting DH. No AL team should have their DH batting ninth.

92-93 - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#201691) #

Totally misread the question. I was thinking of possible PITCHERS who have managed their teams to 800 wins as well as having their own .600+ while on the mound. Tommy Lasorda wishes.

One of the answers has to be Joe McCarthy with those amazing Yankee teams of the 20s.

And now that I've looked it up, that actually does make for a great trivia question. As far as I can surmise, who is the only pitcher in MLB history to win 60% of his games and go on to manage in 800+ wins? I think Bud Black is the only current manager who pitched.

92-93 - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#201692) #

"Looking at the more advanced stats, BABIP shows that only Scott Rolen has been especially "hit lucky" this year, with a BABIP of .361 (.314 career)."

He actually hasn't been lucky, it's his new stance/swing. Rolen leads all of baseball with a 30.2 LD%, and the next closest is still pretty far behind - Nick Johnson at 26.5%. Don't be surprised if Rolen hangs around the batting title race this year (assuming Mauer doesn't blow everyone away).

Alex Obal - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#201693) #

Good time to give Adams a shot, against two hittable righties in Owings and Arroyo. He definitely has more potential than Inglett, who I see as a known quantity. I'm not sure I'd rather have him on the roster if Game 7 of the World Series were tonight, but might as well give him one last opportunity.

Adams has a career .271 BABIP - he has generally made weaker contact than an average hitter. So, I find his Las Vegas stat line heartening. The strikeouts are a concern, but if he's turning on more balls (and flying out to left less) I'll take them. I also like that he's had this much success with only one homer in 80 PA.

John Northey - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#201694) #

Yeah, I did doubling for two reasons...
1) I'm at work and don't have the time to multiply by 2.28
2) The leaders for the team will probably slow down somewhat thus making a conservative estimate appropriate, unless you really think Hill will shoot past 30 HR this year.

As to sub-par performance, Rios has climbed back over 100 for OPS+ (104 right now) while Wells and Snider are at 81 and 80 right now (with Snider not moving anytime soon). The only other regular sub-112 is Barajas at 91. Hill is next worst at 113. Scutaro and Rolen in the 120's, Lind in the 130's and Overbay in the 140's (yes, Overbay). Bautista, a near regular, is at 100 while Millar is at 86 (please release him already - make him a coach if you got to keep him around but stop letting him hit). To put it into perspective last year we had a peak of 121 from Wells then 111 from Rios. 2007 had 3 guys in the 120's and one other over 100. 2006 had 4 guys over 120. 2005 peaked at 115 (Catalanotto). 2004 129 for Delgado with Wells at 105 and the rest very forgettable. In 2003 we finally get someone to crack 130 with Delgado at 161 and Wells at 132 and Myers at 125. All these are among guys listed as regulars at Baseball-Reference btw thus not listing Matt Stairs at 138 for 2007 - the only guy to appear in 81+ games and get over 130 in that time span.

So, having 4 guys over 120 and two over 130 is a real oddity in the JP years I'd say.

John Northey - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#201695) #

Brain is freezing on the trivia. I'd bet on the Dodgers manager for the 50/60's would be there (pre-Tommy Lasorda) - Walter Alston but no idea on the other guy.

Checking B-R I see Alston didn't make it - 'just' a 558 percentage with 7 division/league wins in 23 seasons (back when making the playoffs was a lot harder).

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#201696) #

TRIVIA ANSWER ...

The "easy one" ... those of you guessing Miller Huggins and Casey Stengel were in the right ballpark -- literally. We were looking for the answer "Joe McCarthy."

The other HOFer, you probably know his name well enough, especially if you've been to Chicago -- no, it's not "Wrigley," they're the chewing gum people ... it's the other side of town and Charlie Comiskey!

Interestingly enough, Comiskey spent his entire managing career as a playr/manager.

Gerry - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#201697) #

I don't remember this fangraphs analysis of Wells and Rios being discussed here. In it Eric Seidman suggests V_Dub is down to the replacement player level. He thinks better of Rios but thinks his 2008 value was helped by playing centre field. It does not make for pretty reading.

Magpie - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#201698) #

Mack of course, again solidly (if somewhat ridiculously) in first.

It's not all ridiculous at all.

Granted, his ultimate total of 3731 is somewhat ridiculous - Mack hung around long past the time he could effectively manage a baseball team.

But when Connie Mack was Joe Torre's age, he was still an extremely sharp baseball operator - he had just finished building his final great baseball team (the Lefty Grove-Jimmie Foxx A's). He had already managed 2745 wins by then (through 1933), which is more than anyone except John McGraw (2763).

Magpie - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#201699) #

I was almost tempted to go further with comparing manager's win totals by age - which on one level is kind of silly and another level... oh, it's still silly. But can I help myself? I think not..

LaRussa is 64 (seven months younger than Gaston) and LaRussa does have a couple hundred more wins than Mack did at that age. LaRussa has a few more losses than Mack as well - he's managed a couple hundred more games than Mack had through age 64. La Russa started very young - he was 34 when he took over the White Sox - and he's had the somewhat longer schedule working for him as well.

And how was John McGraw doing at age 64? Well, he'd been dead for three years. I for one always forget how young McGraw was for much of his managerial career - he was just 29 when he took over the Giants.

Mike Green - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#201706) #

The Rays are giving away to Pythagoras what they got from him last year, and the Rays and Red Sox lead the AL in run differential by a significant margin. The home nine has actually "underperformed" its run differential.

92-93 - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#201711) #

No guesses for the only pitcher in MLB history to finish with a winning % of above .600 and go on to manage in 800+ wins?

Dave Till - Monday, June 22 2009 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#201712) #

I tend not to look at the standings too often, especially after losing streaks, so it was a shock to discover that the Jays were only one game behind in the wild card race. And that they had the fourth-best run differential in all of baseball, despite losing an entire pitching staff to injuries and ineffectiveness. (Four of the top five are in the AL East. Whoa.)

What does this say about the New York Yankees: after having spent a jillion dollars, they're still only one game ahead of the Jays. Where would Toronto be if they had been given the opportunity to sign two front-line starting pitchers and one Big Scary Bat? Ah, well: rooting for the Jays is a reminder that life is not always fair, which is useful to remember.

TamRa - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#201713) #

I've stayed out of lineup discussions because with Cito in charge it's ultimately futile but based on current performance...

I'd do it like this:

Scutero
Rolen
Lind
Hill
Overbay
Rios
Wells
Barajas
DH

This would rely on Hill to keep it up though and as much as i love him he's very very streaky.

Anders - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#201714) #

Gotta check this out

http://www.flipflopflyin.com/flipflopflyball/index.html

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#201718) #

This is more a result of the MVP thread, but I was looking up leaders in different offensive categories (trying to figure out where Mauer would place amongst catchers all time with some made-up career curve over the next 7 - 10 years) and saw what I thought was a good trivia question (albeit not as challenging as the ones posted already!).

There is currently 1 active player in MLB with a higher career OBP than The Great Albert Pujols. Who is this man?

AWeb - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#201719) #

Todd Helton? Even with his power gradually slipping away, he's been an on base machine most of his career, and I think still is hitting north of .330 for this career. I can't think of another high average + lots of walks guy who might be better.

Jeremy - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#201720) #

I'm guessing the pitcher/manager is Clark Griffith

Jeremy - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#201721) #

Wow...since the beginning of Blue Jays baseball in '77, the home nine's record in one run games is 736 wins, 735 losses.

perlhack - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#201725) #

Jerry Crasnick at ESPN has written an article about VDub. Not much in there we don't already know.

Flex - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#201727) #

Thanks for the link, perlhack. I think you're underselling the piece. It's a very thorough and pretty sympathetic look at Wells's struggles this year. Yes, if you're a Jays follower, you know all this too painfully well. But it's always interesting to see it written from an outsider's point of view.

One thing that irritated me: Millar talking about how much easier it was for a struggling player in Toronto, a market with "three beat writers instead of 40".

Yeah, let's just be clear here, Kev: Toronto isn't New York, and it isn't Los Angeles. But in terms of media it doesn't take a back seat to any other city on the continent. This isn't Kansas or Milwaukee. It's not a backwater. It's got four major daily newspapers, for starters. Some US cities are on the verge of having none. Let's get real.

LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#201728) #

Why is Camp wearing a different cap than everyone else? Is there a story behind that?

ramone - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#201729) #

Here's a better question, what's Camp doing giving up two walks in a 6-0 game?

LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, June 23 2009 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#201730) #

This is the Reds' version of Tim Collins...

subculture - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#201736) #

I was at the game tonight, and looking at the Jays lineup, Well's stats were glaringly out of place in the 3-hole. His OPS was significantly lower than EVERY other Jay, including Barajas! Granted Russ Adams in the 9th spot just got here, but to me it's clear that Wells, and not Rios should be batting near the bottom of the lineup. I actually think it will help take a lot of pressure off him, and he might see better pitches as well.

I actually have a theory that Wells is relatively easy to read by other team's catchers.... they can sense from his body language, or perhaps scouting reports, when he's expecting a fastball vs a change vs a slider etc... that's the only explanation why he always seems to be guessing the wrong way.

I think he and Rios both need to realize that they are getting steady outside low fastballs, and need to actually look to drive it the opposite way, instead of their current strategy which seems to be to hope the pitcher makes a mistake and throws one down the middle of the plate, or inside half.

I still think he's a great centerfielder, but he seems to have lost some focus, and dropped balls he would have gobbled up routinely a few years ago. He still gets there, but doesn't always come up with the catch now.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#201738) #

With the home nine still in the hunt despite all the injuries, I wonder how Marcum's recovery is coming. There was talk of some minor league work in late June.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#201740) #

Weird how this season is going. The 5 who should be the rotation are DL'd, yet the Jays just moved into a tie for a playoff slot. Marcum could now end up being a key late season addition if he can come all the way back and help out the rotation as the kids reach their inning limits for the season.

What a bizarre, but fun, season.

perlhack - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#201741) #

Flex, you're right, I did undersell the piece a bit, given that it appeared as the lead article on ESPN.com's MLB coverage. I also agree with you about the perception of Toronto vis-a-vis New York or LA, given that this could be said of any US city too.

As an aside, there was an article last week in ESPN Magazine about which matchup players would like to see. The most popular answer from the 11 interviewed players was some guy named Albert versus the Doc.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#201743) #

Marcum could now end up being a key late season addition if he can come all the way back and help out the rotation

That seems rather optimistic. Marcum might be healthy and pitching by September, but I wouldn't expect him to be good that soon.

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 24 2009 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#201746) #

Based on current "hotness", I'd probably set the lineup like this:
Scutaro
Hill
Lind
Rolen
Overbay
Rios
Barajas
DH
Wells

Wells is fast enough that if he gets on, he won't slow Scutaro et all down. This should mostly remove the LOOGY/ROOGY strategy as well, except for Wells/Scoots/Hill. Marco can hit anybody, Wells is futile against both, and Hill is either on or off..

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