Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Gonna free fall out into nothing
Gonna leave this world for a while

It was just about this time last season when a three week death spiral cost John Gibbons his job. What's different about this one?

Two things, mainly. This one has gone on a little longer. The bad streak from last year covered 19 games. The team went 4-15, and Gibbons walked the plank when it reached 4-13. The 2009 team has just lost 17 of 24 games. That's the bad news.

The good news is that this year's slide has left the 2009 team just about where the 2008 team was when their bad stretch started. The 2008 squad was 31-26 when they plunged off the cliff, and woke up to find themselves at 35-41.

Anyway, what's gone wrong?

Pretty much everything. You don't play .292 ball for most of a month without a whole lot of players failing to contribute.

Here is what the hitters have done, ranked, as is my custom, by Runs Created:

          G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP   SLG  OPS  RC RC/27
                                                                                                   
Overbay  21   66 10 22  8  1  3  15 13 12  0  0  0  0   0   2 .333 .443 .621 1.064 19 10.74
Scutaro  24  100 12 32  9  0  0   9  8 13  3  2  1  1   0   2 .320 .367 .410  .777 15  5.45
Rios     23   95  9 28  8  0  4  10  4 16  7  2  0  0   2   4 .295 .337 .505  .842 15  5.61
Lind     24   95 12 25  8  0  5  10  4 18  1  1  0  0   2   4 .263 .307 .505  .812 13  4.70
Rolen    18   65 10 21  8  0  0   4  8  7  0  1  0  0   0   1 .323 .397 .446  .843 11  6.66
Hill     23   98  6 24  2  0  3  10  5 13  0  0  0  1   1   2 .245 .286 .357  .643 10  3.36
Wells    24   90 11 18  5  1  0   7  8 13  4  0  0  3   0   1 .200 .257 .278  .530  8  2.59
Millar   19   58  9 10  1  0  2   7  8 11  0  0  0  0   0   1 .172 .273 .293  .566  5  2.61
Barajas  22   70  5 14  1  0  1   8  3 16  1  0  0  0   0   0 .200 .233 .257  .490  4  2.05
Bautista 12   37  3  6  2  1  0   3  8 15  0  0  0  0   0   1 .162 .311 .270  .581  3  2.87
Chavez    7   18  1  5  0  0  1   2  0  2  0  0  0  0   0   1 .278 .278 .444  .722  2  3.49
Inglett  11   20  1  3  0  0  0   1  2  6  1  0  1  0   0   0 .150 .227 .150  .377  1  1.40
Snider    1    3  0  1  0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0  0   0   0 .333 .333 .333  .667  0  4.25
McDonald  8    5  0  1  0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0  0   0   0 .200 .200 .200  .400  0  1.28

Lyle Overbay has been great. Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro, and Alex Rios have been just fine. Everybody else...

Vernon Wells makes the most money and therefore gets the most grief. Fair enough, but he's not alone. Adam Lind's production during this period is almost entirely confined to four games (two against the Angels and two in Texas) in which he went 12-18 with 3 HRs. He hasn't been streaky. He's been either explosive or inert. Aaron Hill was due for a slump, and he delivered a doozy. Rod Barajas has been even worse.

And the demotion of Travis Snider clearly seems to have hurt the offense. It's not that Snider was doing much himself. But with him gone, Kevin Millar and Jose Bautista have been asked to do more. They have responded by doing less, and using up many more outs while they were about it.

Over the first 41 games, the Jays averaged 5.71 runs per game; over these last 24 games, they've averaged 3.71 per game. Here are the team totals for these two periods (as well as the overall)

         G   AB   R   H   TB  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP SLG  OPS 
                                                                                                    
1st 41  41 1466 234 423  677  93  4 51 222 156 237 20  3 12 15   9  43 .289 .355 .462 .816 
2nd 24  24  820  89 210  325  52  3 19  86  71 144 17  6  2  5   5  19 .256 .317 .396 .713
TOTAL   65 2286 323 633 1002 145  7 70 308 227 381 37  9 14 20  14  62 .277 .341 .438 .780

Oh, what a fall was there my countrymen! So have the pitchers picked up the slack?

No.

          G GS GF CG  W  L SV  IP    H  R ER BB SO HR HBP  ERA   BF BAVG  OBP   SLG  OPS
                                                                                    
Tallet    6  6  0  0  2  3  0  35.1 32 20 20 14 27  3   1  5.09 149 .242 .315  .364  .679
Halladay  5  5  0  2  2  0  0  35   32  8  8  4 31  1   0  2.06 135 .250 .267  .289  .556
Janssen   5  5  0  0  2  3  0  26   40 19 18  7 11  4   2  6.23 123 .354 .398  .593  .991
Romero    4  4  0  0  1  3  0  22.2 27 14 14 10 19  7   0  5.56 102 .300 .366  .600  .966
Richmond  4  2  0  0  0  1  0  15.1 13  8  8  5 11  3   0  4.70  62 .228 .290  .474  .764
Cecil     1  1  0  0  0  1  0   4.2 11  8  8  2  3  5   0 15.43  24 .500 .542 1.167 1.709
Ray       1  1  0  0  0  1  0   4.1  6  5  4  1  4  1   0  8.31  21 .300 .333  .550  .883
Ryan     11  0  5  0  0  0  0   9.2  9  4  4  3  6  1   0  3.72  40 .250 .300  .444  .744
Carlson   9  0  1  0  0  1  0   8.1 14 11  9  3  7  0   1  9.72  43 .368 .419  .447  .866
League    8  0  3  0  0  2  0   9.1 13  9  9  1 10  2   1  8.68  42 .325 .357  .550  .907
Frasor    8  0  2  0  0  0  0   9.1  6  4  4  2 10  1   1  3.86  36 .194 .257  .323  .580
Downs     7  0  6  0  0  0  3   7    7  2  2  2  5  0   0  2.57  29 .269 .310  .346  .656
Camp      6  0  0  0  0  1  0  10.1 10  4  4  4 11  0   0  3.48  43 .256 .326  .410  .736
Wolfe     5  0  4  0  0  1  0   5.1 10  6  6  2  5  3   1 10.12  29 .417 .464  .875 1.339
Hayhurst  4  0  1  0  0  0  0   5.2  4  0  0  0  4  0   2  0.00  22 .211 .273  .263  .536

The pitching hasn't fallen off quite as dramatically as the bats - but while it's not as deep as a well nor as wide as a church door, 'tis enough. 'Twill do. Or not do, as in this case.

The rotation continues in a state of flux. Roy Halladay has been Roy Halladay, and Tallet has been okay. Tallet throws up a real stinker every now and then, which inflates his ERA - but he hasn't been the problem. I think Romero will be okay, but I'm not nearly so sanguine about Casey Janssen. No one is successful starting in the major leagues allowing hitters to put the ball in play this often. If he doesn't start to miss a few bats, I think it'll be time to summon David Purcey and see if Janssen can once again be effective as a reliever.

As for the bullpen, Downs, Frasor, and Camp have been fine. Carlson has been consistently awful. Brian Wolfe was worse. And what happens when Brandon League pitches has been quite a bit like what happens when Adam Lind has been hitting. Most of the time, nothing dramatic happens - which is good for League, bad for Lind. It's just that every once in a while balls just go ricocheting all over the yard. Which is very bad for League.

I was surprised to see that B.J. Ryan has made the most relief appearances during these 24 games. I was far more surprised to see that the only reliever who has been significantly better than Ryan is Scott Downs himself. I assume Gaston is attempting to do with Ryan what he did with Tom Henke in 1989 - slowly work his erstwhile bullpen ace back into the mix, letting him rebuild his game and his confidence. When Gaston took over in 1989, Henke had pitched himself out of the closer's role and there was serious speculation that he had simply lost it. At the time, Henke was 1-3, 7.84 - he had saved the first two games of the season and failed in every save opportunity afterwards. So Gaston used Henke in low pressure situations for more than a month before placing him in another save situation. Henke got his game back together - he finally got his 3rd save, on June 23 - and he pitched brilliantly for the rest of the season (all but three of his second half appearances were scoreless). And for pretty much the next six years, come to think of it.

Anyway, the staff posted a 3.85 ERA over the first 41 games, and that's shot up to 5.10 over the last 24. Here are the team totals:

          G  GF CG   W  L  SV   IP     H    R  ER  BB  SO HR HBP ERA    BF BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
                                                                            
1st 41   41  39  2  27 14   8  373.2  340 174 160 127 284 41  16 3.85 1565 .230 .309 .402 .710
2nd 24   24  22  2   7 17   3  208.1  234 122 118  60 164 31   9 5.10  900 .287 .337 .476 .813
TOTAL    65  61  4  34 31  11  582    574 296 278 187 448 72  25 4.30 2465 .258 .320 .429 .749

So that's where we are. We know what must be done.

This far and no further! The line must be drawn here!

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 10:00 AM EDT.

Slump? What Slump? | 75 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#201380) #

Here is how THT's defensive numbers have the AL centerfielders. To fully appreciate the significance, you need to look at both RZR and OOZ/inning (out of zone per inning). By this measure, Wells has been more than 15 plays below average defensively in centerfield. This amounts to over 10 runs in under half a season. UZR agrees.

In fairness, we do have a pretty good group of centerfielders in the AL- Gutierrez, Gomez, Sizemore, Granderson, Jones is a helluva top rung.

Wildrose - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#201384) #

Here's an audio clip of John Lalonde talking about the recent MLB draft. Sounds like a bright guy.

Frank Markotich - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#201385) #

And Dewan's plus / minus system also has him at -10 runs to date this year.

The big negative comes in deep fly balls, which Wells used to score well on.

Wildrose - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#201386) #

More fielding metrics. The boys from the Fielding Bible weigh in;

Aaron Hill is no surprise here. He posted 25 Defensive Runs Saved at second base in 2006, and won the Fielding Bible Award in 2007 with another 21 Runs Saved. After missing the majority of 2008 with an injury, Hill has bounced back nicely, totaling 13 Runs Saved through 59 games this season.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#201387) #

Lyle Overbay is a nice player. But when a guy whose most-similar players (per BBRef) include Rico Brogna, Greg Colbrunn, Sid Bream and, yes, Brad Fullmer, is your best offensive weapon for the better part of a month -- that's a sign of serious trouble.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#201389) #

But when [Overbay] is your best offensive weapon for the better part of a month -- that's a sign of serious trouble.

No it's not. If Overbay had been hitting at his normal established level during this period and been their best offensive weapon - then it certainly would be.

But an OPS of 1.064 is an OPS of 1.064 and it's not be quarrelled with. If you do that for the entire season (which Overbay certainly won't), you're an MVP candidate.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#201392) #

I've been thinking about the rotation and how many guys have been used. Lets look at the JP era.

2009: starters used = 10 Starters used for 5+ starts = 6
2008: starters used = 8 Starters used for 5+ starts = 8
2007: starters used = 11 Starters used for 5+ starts = 8
2006: starters used = 12 Starters used for 5+ starts = 9
2005: starters used = 9 Starters used for 5+ starts = 7
2004: starters used = 11 Starters used for 5+ starts = 7
2003: starters used = 10 Starters used for 5+ starts = 8
2002: starters used = 13 Starters used for 5+ starts = 9

Cecil and Ray were both at 4 starts before going down, Burres and Litsch shouldn't get any more this year. So odds are good the Jays will reach 8 guys with 5+ starts (around their average with JP) and have Brad Mills and Fabio Castro in AAA awaiting their turns while Dirk Hayhurst could get an emergency start should one occur. Marcum is another guy who could be in the mix for a few starts if his recovery continues well. So while the totals at this point of the year look bad (more starters than last year already, just 3 shy of their peak in the JP era) it shouldn't get much worse for raw number of guys used.

To be honest, this surprised me. I was certain it would look a lot worse vs the Jays recent history.

As to the AL East...
Boston: starters used = 6 Starters used for 5+ starts =6 (one over the minimum)
NY: starters used = 6 Starters used for 5+ starts = 6
Tampa: starters used = 6 Starters used for 5+ starts = 5 (Price has 4 starts - 2.37 ERA but 18 walks in 19 IP)
Baltimore: starters used = 9 Starters used for 5+ starts =6

Interesting that the 2 teams ahead and the team tied with the Jays have used just one starter over the minimum thus far each. Says something that the Jays have stayed within 3 of the wild card with this mess.

chris_jays - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#201398) #

How does one get stats for players from a certain time period...
ie over the last 24 days or from May 17 to June 5th.

is there a site where I can see how a player fared from April 6th to June 3rd of 2009.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#201399) #

You can go to BBRef (www.baseballreference.com), search for the player and go to the player's gamelogs for 2009. There is a feature that allows you to sum from one spot to another. Here is Alex Rios from May 15 to June 14.

jmoney - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#201402) #

My local paper which is very limited in the scope of it's Jays coverage had a scathing piece on just how awful Vernon Wells is/has been for the team this year.

The only gripe I had with the article is that it made the claim that as Wells goes so do the Jays. When the Jays were flying high. Wells was still largely terrible.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#201408) #

How does one get stats for players from a certain time period...

What Mike said. The precise method (which I stumbled onto completely by accident, but I'm sure they explain it somewhere!) - you bring up the Game Log. Click on the first game of the period you're interested in. Nothing - absolutely nothing will happen. (Nothing is highlighted, in other words.) But when you click on the last game of the period, a window pops up with the totals from that series of games.

Mike D - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#201411) #

Inexcusable baserunning. This is really hard to watch.

slitheringslider - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#201412) #

It is game like this that makes me want to stop following the Jays. We've left about 400 base runners on base this game. I don't really know what the issue is there but I could never imagine the Red Sox or the Yankees choke that badly on a play like that. That was very very disheartening to watch

Jdog - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#201413) #

Thats the kind of mistake my wife makes in the odd softball game, glad to see she's not alone. Thanks Rios.

snider - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#201414) #

Looks like the Phillies are indebted to some mobsters and are throwing the game. When you can't strike out Rios with the bases loaded you aren't trying. Of course if League comes out for the 10th we might be able to give it back.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#201415) #

When you can't strike out Rios with the bases loaded you aren't trying.

Alex Ros is 18-69 in his career with the bases loaded. He's struck out 14 times in 76 plate appearances.

So you're telling us most AL pitchers aren't trying?

jerjapan - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#201416) #

This is really hard to watch.

Hardest for me to watch was Downs limping off. With all this talk of how much Cito hates American league pitchers getting hurt in interleague play, what was Downs doing batting there?

Anyway, big win, and nice to see Rios and Wells contributing.

snider - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#201417) #

Alex Ros is 18-69 in his career with the bases loaded

Did you see his AB in the 9th? The ump could have given him 8 strikes and he would have still walked back to the bench.

Seriously though, should Nick Leyva be sending his resume out? What was he thinking?

scottt - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#201418) #

what was Downs doing batting there?

The only explanation I have is that nobody was warming up in the pen. Why would you want your closer to go 2 innings when there's a 5 run lead? There was a runner in scoring position, why not pinch hit and put more pressure on the Phillies pen, why not rest Downs for tomorrow?

Anyway, another decent start for Ricky.

If Down goes on the DL, I hope they bring up Accardo and let Frasor close.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#201419) #

The ump could have given him 8 strikes and he would have still walked back to the bench.

It was one at bat. I've seen a lot of lousy at bats. Even Babe Ruth had a bad at bat or two as well - hey, he struck 1300 times and made more than 5000 outs. Most at bats end with the batter making an out, and often looking pretty bad while he's doing it. Get used to it.

I have no idea what went on with Leyva and Rios. But obviously Leyva thought the ball was falling in. I wonder if he was actually waving at Millar to keep coming to third. (And of course Millar at this point was past second and heading for third, and had to jam on the brakes and go back to second.)

Downs was batting because he was going to pitch the bottom of the tenth. Downs used to pitch in the NL, and although he was about as bad a hitter as you could ever want to see, he's actually made it around the bases and scored a couple of runs in his career.

jerjapan - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#201421) #

Downs last played in the NL in 04. At the age of 33 now, that was ages ago in baseball years.

ramone - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#201422) #

Bastian reports from his twitter page that Down's xray came back negative, MRI scheduled for tomorrow, but likely a DL case, so what are the odds Accardo is up?

Magpie - Tuesday, June 16 2009 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#201423) #

Which means that not only does he have more ABs than the rest of the staff combined - he was actually been hitting more recently than the other guys on the staff.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#201424) #

Accardo would be the obvious choice - he's already on the 40 man, he's pitching OK in Vegas....

But does Gaston want to contemplate a world where his only LH options out of the pen are Ryan and Carlson? (And back in March, who would have thought this team would be running low on lefty relievers? Youneverknow.) Anyway, Castro has pitched better than Accardo (he's pitching a nice game tonight), he's left-handed, he's even got a little bullpen experience at the major league level.

brent - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#201426) #

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=wellsve01&year=Career&t=b#count

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=wellsve01&year=2009&t=b#count

Somebody said that Vernon should keep hitting the first pitch because that is what he does best. Vernon is not physically the same as he was (my theory), so he needs to work the count. The first link shows his career numbers, the second shows the current 2009 season.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#201427) #

Everybody has good numbers when they hit the first pitch. You can't strike out if you hit the first pitch.

Tenace sounds convinced that at this point Wells' problems are in his head. Apparently he's been taking extra hitting, studying video from 2006, he thinks he's seen something different in what he's doing with what his front foot.... Tenace seems to think he should let all that go, that he needs to clear his mind and get his pitch.

smcs - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#201428) #

I'm pretty sure the only person left on the bench was Raul Chavez. Cito's plan from the beginning of the inning was either a) the Jays get 0 runs, so bring Downs back out for a 2nd inning and then do what you must in the 11th or b) the Jays get 1 or more runs, so bring Downs back out because he is your best bullpen arm. He clearly did not expect to bat around in the 10th, and was down to his last bullet in Chavez. Cito had already used 4/5 of his bench players and was on his 4th reliever in Downs. You don't count on going 20 innings, but you have to give yourself the best shot of either winning, or prolonging the game another inning, and using Downs for 2 was the best choice.

I think interleague has turned into an absolute farce. Someone doing the highlights on Sportsnet mentioned the Jays facing their rivals, the Phillies, in their lede. I (along with every major fan) would rather see the rivalry with the Tigers continued based on history...but I digress. (Full disclosure: I was born a year after the 1987 travesty and one of my earliest Blue Jays memories is Joe Carter in '93, but give me Jays-Tigers over Jays-Phils/Braves).

subculture - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#201429) #

Rios and Barajas should thank their teammates for giving them the oppty to not wear the goat horns tonight! Until that last inning, those were 2 of the worst performances in recent memory of any Jays players!

The frustrating thing about Rios is that he'll look great stealing a base, but look terrible ambling to first-base on double-play balls that should be much closer if he would actually hustle down the line. I can forgive a guy not hustling each at-bat, even if he has great speed. I can forgive the odd mental lapse by a player, in a long season. BUT NOT BOTH ON THE SAME GUY!

I don't think I've EVER seen anybody not tag up on a play like that!

The weird thing about this Jays lineup is that the only speed we have is from our 3-4 guys, Rios and Wells. And our 1-2 batters are showing more pop and better hitting with runners on base. It would almost make sense to swap them in the lineup, except Rios and Wells aren't getting on base enough! Otherwise the lineup might actually be pretty good starting with.. Rios/Wells/Scooter/Hill...

Agree with Snyder's demotion/poor-hitting impacting the team overall... having a guy like that as a legit power threat in the 9-hole just made the lineup much more intimidating, as well as more balanced lefty/righty. Him getting healthy and promoted and productive is a key to this team going anywhere this year (among other things of course). Hopefully Delucci can contribute.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#201431) #

1) on JMac batting - reminds me of the WS against Philly. We were behind by a lot in game ? and Cito let the pitcher hit - the AHole announcer for the American TV was laughing he said it "proved" Cito didn't care if we lost the game. Eventually - we won that game. Deja vu all over again.

2) Rios - he gets a mulligan - the 3rd base coach was clearly telling him to run.

3) Wells - no question he's hitting like my 87 year old granny - BUT - on the bases - AND in the field he's CLEARLY TRYING to do what he can. I'm actually getting to like the guy more - the longer his time in hell goes on. HOWEVER - when we start paying this guy 20+ big ones I'm gonna cry.

4) Romero - the guy's a SOLID number 3 pitcher. JP you waz right!

5) On Downs - S - H - I - T (and all in capitals). Bring up Accardo or Castro and or Cecil. Those three guys are all gonna be up before too long anyway.

6) Lind - this guy's the real deal.

7) Rolen - for a guy with one shoulder - he's got a heart bigger than the CN Tower AND his "new" batting system works wonderfully - pity he can't get just enough better to get some home run loft on the ball. BUT - beggers can't be choosers.

8) Overbay looks like he's got stomach indegestion - all the time - goin good or goin bad he's got that look like his tummy hurts. Lately however - he's not just goin good - he looks confident.

9) Ryan - what a big improvement! The guy has worked himself up to being worth the major league minimum! BIG IMPROVEMENT!

10) Cito - I still love ya - always will.

Ron - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 02:58 AM EDT (#201433) #

Scott Downs is one of my favorite Jays but to injure yourself while running towards a base is absolutely pathetic. I would throw Jake Peavy and Chien-Ming Wang in the same group. Why do I continue to hear the same old terrible argument about how you probably shouldn’t have inter-league games because pitchers can get injured running the bases? Even in non inter-league games pitchers have to cover the bases, backup the catcher, try to field balls that are hit around them, etc…..

We had another Rios being Rios moment last night. On that play, he has to know there is only 1 out and he can easily tag up on a flyball deep to the Outfield. There’s no excuse for what he did. The Jays did everything they could to lose and yet they still won by 5 runs. This will go down as one of the most memorable games of the season for Jays fans.

Aaron Hill said in an interview a couple weeks ago that he pretty much swings at everything. I find it odd that a player who was patient in College and in the minors becomes a hacker at the major league level. Drawing walks is a skill that usually sticks with you as you move up the ladder so it’s odd to see Hill do the opposite.

brent - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#201435) #

Overbay had surgery on like 2 or 3 hernias in the offseason. He might have some stomach pain.

scottt - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#201436) #

There's a reason why you don't see a lot of pinch running in the NL. You need that bench for hitting.
A double switch with Chavez would have made a lot of sense, besides, the odd of the 8th/9th slot coming up again were pretty small.

Accardo's splitter works best against lefties. I thought he was still in AAA because they needed someone to take out the right handed hitters.

Why do the Jays suck so much in interplay? Poor scouting?

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#201437) #

I don't think it was the actual running that hurt Downs- it was the actual swinging the bat that did him in. It looked liked he stumbled finishing off his swing. He may have been in shock after making contact. I know I was.

Rios did not have a bad game. He had a pretty good game, marred by a baserunning mistake. It's not like he struck out five times.

Leyva was waving someone, that's for sure. He obviously misread the play, although it's not a play you expect a lousy outfielder to make. I sort of assume Leyva was waving Millar, because the runner on third isn't supposed to need a coach on a play like that.

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#201438) #

What Magpie said.

The runner on third with less than two outs **always** tags up on any ball hit in the air. It doesn't matter if the third base coach is waving his arms or doing cartwheels.

CeeBee - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#201439) #

Too bad the Jays didn't sign Milton Bradley like many were calling for. Math is not his forte either.

Atheletes are human and atheletes make mistakes. Some are just more obvious or often.

Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#201440) #

"Most at bats end with the batter making an out, and often looking pretty bad while he's doing it."

Not to mention the fact, if a player makes an out 7 times out of every 10 that he puts the ball in play, we consider that player a very successful hitter (at least using traditional batting average measurements).

Thomas - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#201441) #

What Magpie and Frank said. Whatever Leyva was doing on the play, that's still almost entirely Rios' mistake. I tend to agree that it looked like Leyva was signalling Millar, anyway. Rios isn't going to be look back at Leyva's handsigns, Millar would be looking at them as he approached third.

Rios had a good game and is beginning to shows signs of life with his bat, but when he makes mental mistakes they are often Howie Kendrick-style howlers.

snider - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#201442) #

I can't understand why everyone is so willing to be positive about Rios. If the Jays can get a bucket of balls for him in a trade they should do it. In my opinion, there is no way the Jays are winning anything with Rios on the team.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#201444) #

Brain fart and all, Rios got on base 4 times, scored twice, drove in a run and made a nice catch in the outfield. After a slow start, he is up to his career batting line. My bet is that he beats it significantly this year.

He has always been susceptible to these momentary lapses of judgment. It has been worse this year, perhaps due to some off-field challenges. In any event, they are part of the overall package. He is still a good player.

chris_jays - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#201445) #

That baserunning error was inexcusable, literally unbelievable.

I don't care what the hell Leyva was doing, that's an absolute bone-headed play by Rios and should earn him a spot on the bench tonight if I was running the show.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#201446) #

In my opinion, there is no way the Jays are winning anything with Rios on the team.

Well, I heard all this stuff about Devon White when the Jays got him and for much the same reason. Tall, graceful athletes always make it look easy - they always look nonchalant. Especially in contrast to the little guys on the team. After all, you can practically see Aaron Hill's legs churning when he runs. You can see the effort in a way that you didn't with White or with Rios. But they're running just as hard and, better still, they're getting there faster.

I don't know if Alex Rios works as hard on his game as Aaron Hill works on his - but I don't know that he doesn't. And neither does anyone who's not at the ballpark with these guys for the whole day, not just the three hours we see on TV.

Rios is a flawed player, but what the hell - every player active since Honus Wagner has some weaknesses. (The Willie Mays camp may want to weigh in at this point, and their thoughts will be treated with respect!) Rios is the fastest guy on the team, but he's not a particularly good baserunner (something else he has in common with Devon White.) He's subject to the occasional brain cramp. But the positives outweight the negatives. He helps the team more than anyone else they might stick in RF.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#201448) #

Magpie, what weakness did Joe Morgan have on the field? I guess if you count "not being able to hit homers in the Astrodome", he had one.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#201449) #

There are - what - three kinds of mistakes a player can make? Physical mistakes, mental mistakes, hustle mistakes. Any others? Anyway, you forgive physical mistakes. You correct mental mistakes. You discipline hustle mistakes.

So I don't bench Rios. That was a mental mistake - clearly, something confused him. You talk to him about that.

You would bench him for not hustling (as Gibbons did a few years back.)

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#201450) #

Good one, Mike. Hmmm... could he have been a little more durable? I suppose, but not much - he was a second baseman and he played 2600 games in the middle of the diamond.... Maybe a little more power? Just four 20 homer seasons, peak of 27... of course, he actually led the league in slugging pct that one time.... Could his peak have lasted a little longer? He was a great, great player for a long time - but for two years there he absolutely towered over the game, like Wagner, Ruth, Mantle and no one else. Ever. But just for two years...

This is pretty serious nit-picking. Joe's a pretty tough guy to find fault with.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#201451) #

Willie Mays is an easy case by comparison. It's easy to find the flaw there.

He couldn't find a way to avoid going into the army in 1952. It's the only reason Henry Aaron was the guy who broke Ruth's record rather than Mays.

And he didn't hit much in the post-season. His swan song with the Mets actually improved his career post season numbers.

jerjapan - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#201452) #

There are great reasons for halting interleague. Being fearful that pitchers will get hurt running the bases is an awful reason. If AL teams cannot expect pitchers to bat and run the bases without getting hurt, that is flat-out embarrassing. It stings that Downs limped down the baseline, but he could have just as easily done this running to back-up a play at the plate...which is what he did last year.

How about halting it because it's not fair? Look at Romero's night at the plate ... 3 ABs, 3 SOs, 8LOB. NL pitchers have rough nights too, but they'd have to have the advantage over their AL counterparts ... has anyone crunched the numbers recently on AL pitcher hitting vs. NL pitcher hitting?

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#201453) #

has anyone crunched the numbers recently on AL pitcher hitting vs. NL pitcher hitting?

Not recently. But I did do a big piece on it back in 2005 - When Pitchers Wield the Lumber - and I was moved to say:

More or less half the AL pitching staffs swing the bats with about the same general level of mind-numbing incompetence as their NL counterparts. And the other half is even worse, busily plumbing new depths of non-performance. These guys suck. Pretty well all of them. Even Mike Hampton sucks, when you get him out of Coors Field.... He's Ken Huckaby with a little more power.

It just doesn't matter.

Mainly because even NL pitchers are almost all throughly incompetent hitters as well. In 2008, AL hitters batted .115/..165/.150, while their NL counterparts tore the cover off the ball at a .139/.177/.175 clip. They're all a joke.

Pistol - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#201454) #

has anyone crunched the numbers recently on AL pitcher hitting vs. NL pitcher hitting?

I'm sure someone has at some point, but you also have to consider that AL teams generally will carry a DH much better than what the NL will put in the DH spot.

On the Rios baserunning episode, it seems like Leyva did something to screw him up, because after the ball was hit Rios took a step home, and then started heading back to the 3rd base, but then started going home again.

Regardless, it was a bad play, but I don't think Rios was getting any help either. And if you're the 3rd base coach you should be automatically telling him to stick on 3rd base if there's a ball hit to the outfield until it falls in or is caught (and maybe he did).

chris_jays - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#201455) #

Rumours of Brad Mills making the start tomorrow instead of Janssen?

Anyone else here this?

chris_jays - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#201456) #

With casey going to the pen and Mills getting the start I have a question.

Is this move neccessary because Downs may be going on the DL and the pen needs some help.

Or is this move because of Jannssen's ineffectiveness lately.

Would Mills still have been called up had Downs not gotten hurt last night?

jerjapan - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#201457) #

Is this move official? Who's going down - or is it Downs to the DL?

Brad Mills is an interesting choice - he hasn't been great since he impressed in spring, but neither had Hayhurst and he's been the most effective bullpen call-up yet. Are the Jays just trying to get their prospects feet wet, or are they trying to catch lightning in a bottle and find a hot hand to ride?

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#201458) #

I haven't heard it, and I'd be surprised if it happens. It is Mills' day to pitch, and he's been better than the 1-8 mark suggests. But he'd have to be added to the 40 man, and it's hard to see what he's done to get a shot before Castro if that's what you want to do.

Michael Barret has started a rehab assignment at Dunedin, so I'd expect to see him back in the majors in the next week or so.

The_Game - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#201459) #

Ken Rosenthal is reporting it, Magpie. It's happening. My guess is that Downs is being put on the DL to bring up Mills.

It's odd that Janssen was only given 5 starts at the major league level, though I suspect he would have been given a bit more rope if Downs didn't get hurt.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#201460) #

Yeah, found the Rosenthal link. Presumably Down goes to the DL. I assume Gaston thought about the prospect of sending Richmond and then Janssen up against Utley/Howard/Ibanez on consecutive nights and just couldn't go through with it.

And 5 starts is a short audition, but Gaston has no patience whatsoever with struggling starters. He's always been this way. When he thinks he's seen enough, it's over.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#201461) #

The Phils do hit noticeably better against RHP. Last year, they hit lefties better with Burrell leading the charge.

The_Game - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#201462) #

Ryan Howard's splits would explain that.

Gerry - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#201463) #

Jordan Bastian says Janssen is going on the DL with shoulder inflamation and Brad Mills will start Thursday.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#201464) #

"Not to mention the fact, if a player makes an out 7 times out of every 10 that he puts the ball in play, we consider that player a very successful hitter (at least using traditional batting average measurements)."

While I understand what you were trying to say, most people don't consider guys with .300 BABIPs to be "very successful hitters".

92-93 - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#201465) #

"I'm sure someone has at some point, but you also have to consider that AL teams generally will carry a DH much better than what the NL will put in the DH spot."

Is this true anymore? DH is not the position it used to be, clearly. They are hitting .250/.337/.436 this year. Surely NL teams have bench players they can squeeze that line out of in a platoon situation.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#201466) #

I'm sure someone has at some point, but you also have to consider that AL teams generally will carry a DH much better than what the NL will put in the DH spot.

You didn't explicitly state the logical conclusion to your "also have to consider" statement. If that conclusion were: "so perhaps AL teams have a bigger advantage hosting NL teams than vice versa", then I'd say you have a legit argument.

On the Rios baserunning episode, it seems like Leyva did something to screw him up, because after the ball was hit Rios took a step home, and then started heading back to the 3rd base, but then started going home again.

Rios looked like a kid in little league, totally lacking self-confidence, listening to and reacting to everything adults are yelling at him. Once the ball was up in the air, he should have known to go back to third and wait for it to drop or be caught. He shouldn't have paid any attention at all to Leyva. But, alas, he is Rios, flawed man.

Regardless, it was a bad play, but I don't think Rios was getting any help either. And if you're the 3rd base coach you should be automatically telling him to stick on 3rd base

Especially when, as a third base coach, you know the runner is Rios and could use helpful reminders. Once the ball was in the air, Leyva should have screamed and pointed for Rios to head back to third, in the anticipation that Rios might not have thought of this himself. Leyva's job is to know his players and while he shouldn't, in a perfect world, have to teach Rios the basics, he should know that he might very well be called upon to do it.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#201467) #

Rios looked like a kid in little league, totally lacking self-confidence, listening to and reacting to everything adults are yelling at him.

Yes! That's exactly what he looked like.

ramone - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#201468) #

Just listening to a Gaston interview posted on the fan590 website from this morning, Cito said it's Down's toe and he could be out anywhere from 1 week to a worst case of 6 weeks. Not the news I was hoping to hear, I'm sure it's the news Accardo wants to hear though.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#201469) #

Brain fart and all, Rios got on base 4 times, scored twice, drove in a run and made a nice catch in the outfield. After a slow start, he is up to his career batting line.

Hill's OPS+ is 118. Rios' is 108. Certainly a lot closer than many would expect.

Pistol - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#201472) #

Surely NL teams have bench players they can squeeze that line out of in a platoon situation.

Apparently not.

Last year NL DHs hit .237/.305/.396 vs the AL DHs of .256/.339/.435

This year the difference is even greater (771 vs 629 OPS).

92-93 - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#201473) #

There may be sample size issues there. In 2007 NL DH's hit .275/.344/.442. Regardless of the numbers, on a team by team, game by game basis I really don't see the AL as having that great of an advantage. DHs with gaudy stat-lines just don't exist anymore.

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#201478) #

And another one for the Curious Managerial Decisons file - pinch running with Inglett (instead of McDonald) so that McDonald (instead of Inglett) gets to pinch-hit later. I don't think Inglett is all that much faster than McDonald (if at all), is he?

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#201480) #

With Casey Janssen on the D.L. http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20090617&content_id=5372612&vkey=pr_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor and Mills getting the start, how soon will it be before we see Fabio Castro? I believe he's the last pitcher we'll need to see.

chris_jays - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#201481) #

Am I wrong in assuming that something is up since Dellucci isn't in the lineup today for Las Vegas's 4:00 game?

Pistol - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#201482) #

Here's the differences between AL DHs and NL DHs (by OPS) the last 10 years. Overall the AL has a 50 point advantage, and the NL has been better in only 1 year.

..........
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 AL DH
0.771 0.774 0.801 0.818 0.777 0.790 NL DH
0.629 0.701 0.791 0.679 0.725 0.753 Diff 0.142 0.073 0.010 0.139 0.052 0.037

2003 2002 2001 2000 Ave 0.788 0.788 0.785 0.824 0.792 0.884 0.724 0.740 0.787 0.741 -0.096 0.064 0.045 0.037 0.050

(hope the formatting holds up!)

Magpie - Wednesday, June 17 2009 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#201494) #

(hope the formatting holds up!)

Alas, it didn't. I had trouble figuring it out, so I went to baseball-ref.com to figure it out. I assume you used a different source - their AL OPS totals for DHs differ from yours (generally by about .001) and the NL ones seem to have a wider variation. But I think you were trying to do something like this, no?

         2009   2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999
AL DH    .772   .775  .802  .819  .778  .791  .788  .788  .786  .824  .840
NL DH    .674   .716  .787  .675  .716  .762  .880  .733  .753  .795  .740
AL adv.  .098   .059  .025  .144  .062  .029 -.092  .055  .033  .029  .100

In all but one of these seasons (2003), AL DHs were more productive, and sometimes by a quite substantial margin. (League total plate appearances by NL DHs are typically 550-600 in a season - just like a regular!)

Mike Green - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#201502) #

Two Scott R. comments about yesterday's game:

1. Richmond's off-speed stuff was really biting. Despite his career platoon splits, he seems to do better when he goes right after the left-handed hitters rather than pitching around them, as he did against Kansas City. He's now thrown about 100 career major league innings with an ERA+ of 117, and component pitching data relatively consistent with that. I was also impressed with his handling of the ball on the DP.

2. Rolen's swing appeared to me to be freer than it was at any time this season. Perhaps his shoulder was feeling better than usual. It seems that Gaston's decision to give him extra time off has paid real dividends.

Chuck - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#201505) #

The Phillie lefties going 3 for 20 (all singles) off Richmond was a huge surprise given that LHB had a career OPS off RIchmond of over 1000 heading into the game. It will be very interesting to see if this success is something he can repeat. Obviously everything changes for Richmond if he can decrease his vulnerability to LHB.

China fan - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#201506) #

Eleven strikeouts against the NL's second-best team is impressive. Richmond now has 60 strikeouts vs. 23 walks on the season. He was also excellent in his recent long-relief stints in the bullpen. I dunno, but he's looking a lot better than a 5th starter to me. Interesting to learn that he's been studying Dorfman's book, "The Mental ABCs of Pitching" -- the bible of Doc Halladay. Coincidence?

jmoney - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#201551) #

Looking at the highlights it appears that Vernon had a real good game today. Too bad the game was during the day and I missed it. Looked like a good one.

Hodgie - Thursday, June 18 2009 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#201565) #

For all the consternation expressed earlier over Rolen's lack of power due to his re-tooled swing, it is intersting to see that he has pushed his OPS up to career norms after today's game. This comes with a only a slight drop in SLG% (.479 vs .500) and an equally slight increase in OBP (.394 vs .371). For all the things that have gone dreadfuly wrong for our boys in blue this year, this is certainly a very pleasant development!

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