They might be going in to find out what is wrong along with replacing the old one. It's probably better to get it done than wait around to try and rehab it until they decide they need to do it anyway. Perhaps there is no good decision in this situation?

That's crazy.

After all this, I halfway expect to see an article online tomorrow announcing that I'll be having Tommy John surgery.

Unfortunately, there is a history of inaccurate reporting with respect to pitcher injuries.  I wouldn't be sure that the two MRIs were clean unless the report came directly from the specialist rather than filtered through the club.  The other seeming possibility is that the Jays are now going to be in the habit of replacing the UCL of starting pitchers with healthy ligaments at the hint of arm pain...move over, Lee Majors.  Personally, I'll take door #1, Alex.

Shame. Real shame. There has to be something missing here in terms of information. Recall the famous "it is not lying if we know the truth" quote (I'll add that I thought (and still do) think that was a funny and absurd when I heard it on the radio live on WWJP). I can't say I'm surprised -- when it was first called a forearm strain many commented (here and Wilner for certain) how that is usually code for "Tommy John Surgery". Too bad they couldn't have done it a month ago.

Litsch, McGowan and Marcum so promising in 07 & 08 -- and the Jays'll get zilch from them in 09. That's more than a little unfair.  

Anyway, to get to what I really wanted to comment on, anyone else have some suspicions around Litsch adding a 4 seam FB at the end of last year? He was really getting his 4-seamer up there on the gun late in 08 and there may have been unusual wear and tear on the elbow around the new pitch. 

We've heard rumours, but how realistic is it to expect Marcum or McGowan to pitch again this year? It sure would help to have one or both back in the rotation in August or September.

There was a ballgame in Texas tonight (unlike the phantom game against the Yankees of a few weeks ago).  This one went much better. 

You have to appreciate what Scott Rolen has done.  He has changed his swing in his 30s to accommodate the shoulder injury, sacrificed power and gained better control of the strike zone.  This adaptability means that he is likely to be around for quite a few more years.  I'd be talking contract extension with him. 

I see Ryan's fastball is sitting at 85mph these days.  Maybe he purchased Jesse's seemingly healthy ulnar ligament.

A contract extension for Rolen at this time is not a good idea at all. You have more than a season and a half until he's a free agent, and a lot can happen in that time frame to a guy with his kind of body and injury history. The bidding won't be too high for a 36 year old Rolen after 2010 that you need to think about saving a few bucks by extending him now.

And besides, I'd bet he hates the turf and would rather look elsewhere once this contract runs out.

While I don't want to see anyone hurt, and while I am NOT one of those who think "Listch is just like Chacin" and was playing way over his head....

I'm really not that disappointed that Listch is on the sidelines for a year or so.

the Jays best rotation with everyone healthy probably doesn't include Listch anyway, and it's not totally a bad thing to have a little less crowding in the competition for the rotation next spring.

Will, I know what you mean. I'm happy that an injury or demotion to someone currently in the rotation will mean we see one of Cecil/Castro/Purcey/Mills instead of Litsch. Still, losing an asset for at least a year is never a good thing.

I've read the nay already, but I agree with the sentiment of extending Rolen.

Given what Blair has said about him both on radio and in print (that Rolen fits really well into this clubhouse and shows none of the act that had him leave STL and PHI on less than great terms) and the way he's played in a Jays uni save for about 4-6 weeks last July-August; I'd talk turkey with him. Especially if he's willing to trade years for $/year.

There aren't any real options down the road at this point and both Ahrens/Fuenmayor seem like long shots to hit the bigs let alone be replacements in the next few years. Maybe the solution is in shifting Hill over and filling 2B with a younger player, but given Hills unwillingness to move from 2B to SS and his general value as a 2B I don't think that'd be good.

I'd like to see Rolen retire as a Jays. Never warmed to Glaus but Rolen, has seemed like a Blue Jay since his "firty-free" press conference when he first got here.

Hmm. A quick pop over to fan-graphs had something glare out at me: this year he's been a below-average fielder. They also show a big drop in UZR from his years in STL to last year. Dewan's plus/minus (via billjamesonline) show him a +3 which given that its a counting stat and we're a 1/4 of the way through the year (more or less) shows that he's as good as ever. I'm not that familiar with UZR. Anyone willing to step up to the plate and explain to me the strengths/weakness of UZR (I never use it and just glance at it) compared to plus/minus (which I see as the gold standard of fielding stats).

Hmm. Sorry for starting out at A (re-signing Rolen) and ending up out in the nether regions of advanced fielding stats. Such is my brain after hours of writing.

Anyway to sum up:

1) I'm all for resigning Rolen for 2-3 years given a reasonable salary given the dearth of options.

2) I'm puzzled why UZR and plus/minus (and my eyes for that matter) come to such different conclusions on Rolen as a fielder.

I said a year ago (albeit before the Lost July but still) that the day would come when taking 2 years and an option on to the end of Rolen's deal would look like the smart play.

It's too early for me to crow about that yet but I'm glad to see I'm no longer the voice in the wilderness on that.

Might not do it until after I had Doc settled though.

I'm still more interested in a Scutaro 1-2 year extension.

On Doc: I really hope Wilner's theory of saying "here's the vault" on Doc is right. If it takes CC $$, do it. Maybe not CC years given the age difference, but do it.

I think Halladay's personality (from what I've heard/read and seen) is conducive with him staying in Toronto where he's comfortable. I'll be really unhappy as a fan if he's plays out his last year of his contract.

I really hope Roy stays as he's the last link to that 1998 team that rekindled the Jays fan in me. I think I've long since past the point where "baseball fan" out weight "jays fan" but Roy is a significant player in me holding onto the enthusiasm "for the pajamas (uniform)". Losing Delgado was a huge hit too and I hope that the Jays are able to bring him back for one last kick at the can before he retires.

You simply can’t trust the Jays when it comes to injuries. I remember their was talk Litsch and maybe McGowan would be back in June. I know pitchers are frequently injured but the Jays have had 3 of their young starters get TJ surgery in about a year. It seems like the Jays young starters suffer more serious injuries than any other team in baseball.

Their was a lot of Roy Halladay talk the past week on the various ESPN platforms. Some of the talking heads said it was a shame Halladay pitches in Canada. Doc said he’s not a person that seeks the spotlight so he enjoys pitching in Toronto. He’s able to go out with his family without being hounded.

What are the chances Halladay gets elected into the Hall Of Fame?

I, for one, would be willing to pay a slightly larger cable bill to subsidize a new Halladay contract. He's the best pitcher in baseball, he's a career Jay, and he's nowhere near on the downside. Where would they be without him?

I think Rolen's defense is just fine. This is anecdotal, but: do you recall seeing Scutaro ever having to go deep into the hole to field a ground ball? He doesn't have to, because Rolen moves to his left and cuts all those balls off. (This is partly why the Scutaro-at-short experiment has been successful: he doesn't have to do the really really hard things for shortstops to do.) He seems to really fit in well in Toronto, and he's making a big contribution: Rolen-for-Glaus is now looking like a big win. The Jays don't have to decide whether to re-sign him until next year; they can worry about that then.

As for Litsch: I am beginning to wonder whether Arnsberg offers a Faustian bargain. According to my theory, he gives pitchers the ability to pitch over their heads and become major leaguers, at the cost of shredding their arms. Litsch wasn't highly rated coming through the system, and I don't recall Marcum being rated that high either. (McGowan is a different story, but his high pitches per inning count did him in.) Of course, another theory is just that very few pitchers can handle the expected workload of a starting pitcher, and the only way you can find out is to try them out.

I'm still more interested in a Scutaro 1-2 year extension.

Oh yes, I think that that ought to be one of those rare in-season" moves where you go ahead and see if you have some good will with him that would lock him down now. But definitely something needs doing there.

but the Jays have had 3 of their young starters get TJ surgery in about a year.

No. Two. McGowan and Janssen were shoulders.

It seems like the Jays young starters suffer more serious injuries than any other team in baseball.

Wilner pointed to a BTBS study which indicated the Jays actually were near the bottom in terms of time lost to the DL....though it's unclear if that's a seperate breakdown for pitchers. Someone here has probably seen it.

What are the chances Halladay gets elected into the Hall Of Fame?

Assuming no major change to his career path, it's almost certain. One thing the Hall vote looks at is dominating your era, and since the age decline of the last great wave (Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Johnson etc) Doc and Sanatana are clearly the dominant guys over the last several years combined.

I think we learned with Mike Sirotka that MRI's don't always give you all the answers.  My teenage son had full ACL reconstructive surgery recently and 3 MRI's were inconclusive as to how bad the tear was.  His knee was fully functional 95% of the time and only certain motions let him know there was something wrong.  It's quite possible that it wasn't clear how bad Litsch's tear was.  McGowan pitched for years with a wonky UCL before he finally had TJ surgery.

I am beginning to wonder whether Arnsberg offers a Faustian bargain. According to my theory, he gives pitchers the ability to pitch over their heads and become major leaguers, at the cost of shredding their arms.

It does seem like the Jays lose a higher number of young pitchers getting injured (and Will Carroll mentioned this as well a month or two ago).

But it's hard to point to Arnsberg as the problem.  As far as I know the Jays aren't doing anything controversial with their pitchers - no high strain pitches, no high workloads, no unusual throwing program on off days, etc.  Unless there's something I'm missing I think it's probably just bad luck.

The suggestion was made that Arnsberg's handling of pitchers prior to his tenure in Toronto led to increased arm troubles. 

It is a very difficult thing for a lay person to make any comment on.  New pitches are constantly being worked on, and very refined comments from a pitching coach about mechanics can make the difference between a smooth adjustment and one that leads to problems.  There is often, unfortunately, a connection between effectiveness and risk of injury. 

Litsch's problem might be the most puzzling of all.  He had the proverbial rubber arm prior to his arrival, was not overworked when young, and did not have a delivery or build which in any way suggested to the lay person that he was at risk. 

"He had the proverbial rubber arm prior to his arrival, was not overworked when young"

How does that make any sense? The reason "he had the proverbial rubber arm prior to his arrival" was because he WAS overworked when he was young. Jesse's dad has been notorious for commenting on various Jays sites and has always pointed out that Jesse was an absolute horse when he pitched in high school and juco, and would often be asked to throw the next day after tossing 200+ pitches.

I forget where I read it, but I could swear I read somewhere that Arnsberg was teaching the kids new pitches which were higher stress but also higher return.  If so then it would explain the interchanging of pitchers this year with a fair degree of success.  Get tons of top prospects, wear them down over their first 6 years, then let them go with worn out arms if they make it that far.  Namely, get as much return as possible from them at the lowest cost. Works for the team, not so good for the pitchers in all cases though.

How does that make any sense? The reason "he had the proverbial rubber arm prior to his arrival" was because he WAS overworked when he was young. Jesse's dad has been notorious for commenting on various Jays sites and has always pointed out that Jesse was an absolute horse when he pitched in high school and juco, and would often be asked to throw the next day after tossing 200+ pitches.

Off course there's two theories about pitch counts. Some believe that the more you pitch, the stronger your arm will be, others believe that high pitch counts, especially in younger arms, especially when pitching  "tired" may cause increased injury.

The evidence is inconclusive, although I lean towards the later.

Basically I'm of the opinion that pitching is such an unnatural motion , that sooner or later most pitchers will suffer a serious arm injury at some point in their careers. Now some don't, Roy Halladay being prime example # 1 ( although his career is far from over), so is this random luck or is he doing something that's different?

 I forget where I read it, but I could swear I read somewhere that Arnsberg was teaching the kids new pitches which were higher stress but also higher return

I believe there's been some discussion around the cutter as being possibly a dangerous pitch ( it certainly isn't the four seam fastball which is the most basic and widely used pitch in all of baseball). Until you actually run a study however, like lots of beliefs in baseball, it may just be a myth.

How many pitchers who have been in the Major Leagues for ten years have never been on the DL?

I think the answer is:   TWO,  and I think they are Derek Lowe and Livan Hernandez. Someone can look it up, but the point is that most pitchers get hurt.

How many pitchers who have been in the Major Leagues for ten years have never been on the DL?

I'll bet there aren't all that many pitchers who make it through five years in the majors without hitting the DL. Off the top of my head, the only Blue Jay was Dave Stieb: he came up in 1979 and never went on the DL until 1991. And I guess Pat Hentgen, who - let me check - OK, he stayed healthy through his first five years in the rotation, but was shut down early in his sixth. No one else comes to mind, in more than 30 years.

definitely Maddux and maybe Glavine

An interesting question.  One interesting data point is Nolan Ryan.  Seriously injured at the start of his career, then healthy as a horse until the end when his arm blew out.  Shows that an injury early on does not mean you can't take 200+ pitch games :)

Ryan was told around 1983 that his elbow ligament was hanging by a thread, that it would eventually just snap on him, and that he should have surgery. Ryan decided to keep pitching instead. And the doctor was right - it did snap eventually, on the last pitch ever threw.

Dave Stieb was advised to have his elbow operated on after the 1986 season, and there was a fair bit of unhappiness around the club and the fanbase when decided not to have it done.

The Star reminds us this morning that three guys on the Jays staff (Tallet, Downs, and Frasor twice) had their Tommy John operations before they came to Toronto.

Would there be any benefit in giving your young AA starter TJ surgery even if he doesn't need it, just to get it out of the way?

I jest...sort of. 

"and Frasor twice"

Kinda strange to remember that when Ricciardi traded for Frasor, the reason he gave was, "we like his arm."

There was talk once of pitchers getting TJ surgery just to up their arm strength.  Luckily I don't think any did that without their arm needing it.  The day is coming though when pitchers will have surgery to up their arm strength even if it means their arm falls off by the time they are 40.  Wonder how MLB and the various anti-drug groups will react to it.

I can just see the Michelle Obama public service announcement: "kids, just say no to PED and TJ".  Jay-Z will do the tune. 

The cutter is the pitch that pitching coaches worry about.

"Are there things that you'd do differently? In my own opinion, honestly, there's not one thing that I'd do any differently," Arnsberg said.

"The only thing that I think I might have done, but (Litsch) was so successful, was keep him from cutting the ball so much. It's real tough on that ligament, real tough on that flexor pronator and those are the areas that are kind of affected."

I don't think you'll see a rush by young pitchers to have TJ surgery as a prophaletic  treatment given the near 2 year recovery period, the intense rehab and the less than 100% guarantee that it'll work.

      Belated cudos to J.P.,  Arnesberger and staff ...   How many of the other teams could have fared as well as the Jays who have now basically lost their closer and their number 2 through 5 starting pitchers from last year and have done so by promotion from within their own organization ?  I guess they must have been doing somethings right.

 I suppose if I'm handing out cudos to people I should at least get their names right ... that should be Arnsberg ...