Anyone notice that Buck Coats played a bit of 2nd base on Saturday night? Wonder if it was because of a short bench, an extra-inning game and a substitution...or some larger organizational notion to Skip Schumaker him.

Do you see their current 2b?  Johnathan Diaz, hitting nearly 0.05 over 30ab.  It seems that Clark must have been injured recently, adding to the list of 2b that are injured, adams, campbell, and clark.  Diaz put up horrible stats in A,AA last year, but since were so short on 2b our system, him and Coats have to play, lol

Markus Brisker has been sent down to extended spring training and Chris House recalled.  I am not 100% sure but Talley might be injured as he did not catch Friday or Saturday and left yesterdays game early.  Brisker was probably headed for Auburn once the short season started and once Kenny Wilson returned from injury so this move is probably a week ahead of when it would have happened anyway.

High school pitching abounds in the mock draft world.  Callis had us taking Chad James and now Law has us taking Kyle Heckathorn (James went 21) at #20 in his mock.

See I can see the Jays going for a high school arm, but not someone as 'toolsy' as Heckathorn sounds.  We don't really want to get into 'projects' again do we? 

When Law made the selection of Heckathorn, he noted that while the Jays may go "high-school arm", don't expect them to get an unpolished one.  I take that as meaning Heckathorn is polished.  He has two plus pitches and a projectable frame.  He'll probably get to work on a changeup and two-seamer in the fall.

Heckathorn was born in 1988 and is a junior at  Keenesaw State University.  I presume that means that he left high school a few years ago.  "Keenesaw" as in Landis?

Anyways, if the scouting report is accurate, he doesn't sound like my kind of prospect- too straight fastball, awesome slider and poor control doesn't do it for me.

And there was me thinking that "kennesaw" must have been a high school.  *hangs head in shame*

Count me out on Heckathorn.

That's what I meant when I said I just don't see JP getting involved in 'project prospects.'  In the guy's scouting report it also indicated that he will probably never be considered a control pitcher and we all know how JP loves pitchers who pound the strike zone.  Just don't see this happening to be honest.

For those that have been reading the mock drafts of BA and Law, why do they see the Jays going high school arm in this draft?

Hey Guys,

I don't post here too often but if you follow the draft then you may recognize my name from the scout.com boards and John Sickels' site (where I am the SD for the mock draft this year)

I just wanted to invite anybody who wants to come and participate in the mock draft for the Jays to come to the Blue Jays MOD and post there thoughts.

Also, if you want to check out the thread on scout.com I think it's a very good one with a TON of good links for prospect coverage. Here's a link.

On Heckathorn, I think you guys may be underrating him some. Firstly, he is a junior from Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State just recently moved into Division I and wasn't eligible to go to the postseason this year. However, it is quickly becoming a strong program as Heckathorn and another RHP from the team, Chad Jenkins, look to be first round picks this year. Additionally, the top pitcher in the state of Georgia and likely top 10 pick, Zack Wheeler, is committed to the program (though he will almost certainly forego college). While the program is improving quickly they are not in a tremendous conference so the question of the quality of competition lingers.

With regards to Heckathorn specifically, I think he's a pretty good prospect. While the MLB draft report says he doesn't have a ton of movement he throws hard enough that I don't expect it to be a huge problem and I've seen reports that when he relies on his two-seamer he gets reasonably good sink. Also, he does have pretty good control. This has been consistent throughout his time at Kennesaw State as he has posted BB/9's around 3.0 which is a pretty strong performance marker for a power arm like Heckathorn in college. The MLB report says that he has a good power slider and BA mentions that the slider (which they call lethal) sometimes turns into a true cutter going as high as 93. The draft report mentions his changeup as being promising since he has a feel for it. Combine all of those things with the fact that Heckathorn has an excellent pitcher's build and I think you have a pretty good prospect.

For anybody who's interested, here's BA's report on Kyle Heckathorn, who they rate the 28th best prospect in the draft.

#28 KYLE HECKATHORN, RHP, KENNESAW STATE
Heckathorn has been on scouts' radars since he started growing into his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame. As a prep junior, he had an ankle injury that prompted many of the larger schools recruiting him to hesitate, while Kennesaw State kept after him. He reciprocated their loyalty and finally was having a breakout season as a junior, after several fits and starts. Heckathorn has raw stuff on par with anyone in the draft class, even Stephen Strasburg. He runs his fastball up to 99 mph as a starter, sitting in the 94-97 range into the eighth inning against Jacksonville in a May start. His slider can be similarly lethal, sometimes turning into a true cutter at 91-93 mph, other times getting decent depth in the 85-88 mph range. He doesn't throw much that's soft and actually throws too many strikes; he hasn't yet learned how to set up hitters to chase his slider or heater out of the zone when ahead in the count. Heckathorn's quick (two outing) departure from the Cape Cod League last summer raised some red flags for teams, as has his lack of consistent dominance in the Atlantic Sun. His command also is not what it should be. Most clubs consider Heckathorn, who has a short, quick arm action, a likely reliever as a pro, as a better (they hope) version of Kyle Farnsworth.

So if there are any more draft fanatics lurking around the Batter's Box who want to participate, feel free to join the conversation over at the scout board linked or the Blue Jays MOD. The mock draft is particularly cool as you'll have a hand in choosing the players, which can make them more fun to follow in the minors in the future.

Sano, it seems to be common knowledge that the Jays scouts have been following High School pitchers a little closer than in past years.  It's been alluded to in a couple of places on the interwebs, though I can't remember where.  (perhaps even in an interview on this site)

Personally, I wouldn't be drafting any of the high school pitchers in the 1st round.  Probably I'd be going for a catcher, a shortstop or a centerfielder given the likely available talent. 

Personally, I wouldn't be drafting any of the high school pitchers in the 1st round

Why? The HS pitching is by far the strength of this draft.  The SS talent is pathetic, the C's? There is a strong group of HS catchers but HS catchers may be even more risky than HS pitchers.  We're looking at a few CF but theres absolutely zero need to draft for a specific position.

On Heckathorn, I think you guys may be underrating him some.

The first thing to me is the lack of fastball movement.  But then there's also projection him based on his size and stuff, when the performance really isn't there like you would expect.  Of course, I thought the same thing about Verlander as well.

On the other hand I really like his teammate Chad Jenkins.  Smart, ground ball pitcher with three pitches, K rate over 9 per 9, and about a 6.5:1 K:BB ratio.

Hey Tercet... Take it easy on Diaz.  Do some research.  Sure he's stuggling at the plate at LV.  But,  I think he was brought up to AAA to be a gloveman. Looking at the video and hearing the announcers, he seems to be one of the best gloves at Las Vegas.  And God knows, they need gloves in LV.  He was a great gloveman at New Hampshire and he batted 260 with a 403 OBP .  Plus, in addition to 2B, he's also outstanding at third, short and even left field.  Coats was brought in when Diaz was ejected along with the 51s Manager Basso for stridently arguing some lame called strikes in the bottom of the 8th.  Check the DL to see why the 51s were light on infielders that night.  Diaz saves runs in the field, he runs like the wind on the bases and he moves runners into scoring position with bunts just as the coachs tell him to do.  He has  value as a utility man, but his stick does need to improve to stay around at AAA.  Despite the batting average, Basso has an asset in the guy 2 or 3 games a week.

There is an overall assessment about "ceiling" vs. likelihood of reaching it.   The high school pitchers who are going to be available at #20 have a very small likelihood of reaching their ceilings, and a well below-even chance of making it to the majors.  There are no Purcellos (who I advocated drafting last year).  Instead there are many pitchers of about like quality some of whom will be available in the second round when the Jays come to draft again. 

There is an overall assessment about "ceiling" vs. likelihood of reaching it.   The high school pitchers who are going to be available at #20 have a very small likelihood of reaching their ceilings, and a well below-even chance of making it to the majors.  There are no Purcellos (who I advocated drafting last year).  Instead there are many pitchers of about like quality some of whom will be available in the second round when the Jays come to draft again.

No offense, but how can you honestly tell me that the players available have a "very small" chance of reaching their ceilings? What analysis do you have to support that claim? I wont get into the HS pitchers are risky argument because its a long one...I'll just say that John Sickels did a little analysis about a week ago on the origins of starting pitchers from last year with 10+ 'Win Shares'...of the 65 starters total 34% were first round picks VS. only 11% 2nd round picks (your statement that you'll find someone in the 2nd who is just as likely to reach their ceiling)...there were also more HS pitchers than NCAA pitchers in that group (37% vs. 35%).  Pitching is risky in general, there is however evidence that shows that regardless of HS vs. NCAA that there IS a gap between the 1st and 2nd round.

Porcello (not Purcello) was drafted 2 years ago, not last year.  Also, Porcello was a Top 3 talent who fell into the 20's because of contract demands.  If your criteria for drafting a HS pitcher is finding a Top 3 talent to fall into your lap at #20 then you may as well not even scout them because that isn't going to happen very often.  Just to drive some more points....in that same draft Tim Alderson was drafted 22nd overall, he was the SIXTH HS pitcher drafted (not counting Porcello who went after him but was more highgly thought of), and save for Madison Bumgarner, and arguably Jarrod Parker he is outperforming all of the HS pitchers who were taken before him.  That was a strong class of HS pitchers as is this one, so even though the kid may be the 5th HS kid off the board the talent dispersity isn't huge.  I'll also point to Casey Kelly who was drafted at the end of the 1st round by the Red Sox last year...he fell to the Red Sox because of some signability demands as well as some beliefs that he wouldn't sign if he was drafted as a pitcher, eventhough he fell however no one considered him to be an elite pithing prospect (last year's class of HS pitchers was weak)...he's pitched well early on, certainly much better than most people expected considering that this kid wanted to play SS.

In the case for James or Gould...both have everything you look for, and honestly, they aren't that far behind the higher tier of HS arms in this draft in terms of stuff or projectability.  The big difference is that both James and Gould are late bloomers....both showing spikes in velocity which previously held them back from being considered top talents. 

You have to give plenty of time to see how high-schoolers actually develop.  So, if you look at the period 1997-2000, there were 25 high school pitchers drafted in the first round, and many of them in the first 10 picks.  Charitably, 4 of them reached their potential (Sabathia, Beckett, Garland and Wainwright).  Most of them provided little or no value whatsoever to their organization.  I am not at all leery about drafting an exceptional high school talent like Beckett or Porcello in the first round, but the lesser talents get overblown in hype about projection and

Yes, I know it's Porcello.  Here in Toronto, we do the Porcello/Purcey spoonerism all the time. 

Generally, I'd prefer hitting over pitching in the first round due to my perception of relative risk in that round.  However, I'm with metafour on this one that Purke, Gould and James look like no-brainers to me, especially considering the unpolished hitters that may be available at the same spot.

The only way I wouldn't go with one of those three (if available, and at least one should be) is if Sheppers or Green dropped to us.

Here's a well thought out mock draft that goes 111 picks deep.  I like Jenkins (good Welsh name), though I'd go Gould/Purke given their availability.

It does give an idea of the type of talent we could amass with the five picks.

I like Jenkins' profile too, but then I am a big fan of the change. 

  I am not at all leery about drafting an exceptional high school talent like Beckett or Porcello in the first round, but the lesser talents get overblown in hype about projection

The thing is, its not just the HS pitchers, its EVERY position.  No one is drafting a HS pitcher in the first who throws 80mph with no secondary pitches, every 1st round HS pitcher has legit stuff...just like every college pitcher, or every position player you draft has tools of some sort that make them a 1st round pick.  There is no "overblowing" of lesser talents...explain to me how a big, athletic 18 year old LHP who throws as hard as 94mph with two secondary pitches that look to be plus in the future (James) is overhyped? Whether or not he pans out has nothing to do with him being overhyped, its the general risk of ANY player you draft, with HS pitchers being generally a bit more risky than most other prospects.  If you're talking something else than I apologive, it just sounds like you're saying that teams have a tendency to overdraft unworthy HS pitchers based on some projection-myth, which is why so many flop.  Of course this is far from true.

Generally, I'd prefer hitting over pitching in the first round due to my perception of relative risk in that round.  However, I'm with metafour on this one that Purke, Gould and James look like no-brainers to me, especially considering the unpolished hitters that may be available at the same spot.

The only way I wouldn't go with one of those three (if available, and at least one should be) is if Sheppers or Green dropped to us.

I'd actually strongly consider Everett Williams there, his hitting is fairly advanced and he's got a lot of upside...same with Borchering if he falls.  The thing I'm seeing is that the college pitching available at our range will be spotty.  I like Jenkins and if he's there then I'd like that pick, but a lot of mocks have him going as high as the Nationals at #10 now.  When you look more realistically its guys like Arnett and Heckathorn.  Heckathorn has LEGIT stuff but I keep cringing when I see BA's writeup that says that most teams thing he might have to move to the bullpen...one of my big draft no no's is drafting relievers in the first.  With Arnett, I'm just not sold...he scares me because he looks a bit like a 1-pitch pitcher.  He has two pitches and his slider has been labelled as inconsistent...he's big and throws hard but at that point I'd rather just go with the higher upside of a HS arm that in a few years could be far better than Arnett is right now.  Its no surprise that BA has James, Hobgood, Skaggs, and Gould going right from #20-#26: the HS pitching is desirable in that range in this draft.

Throwing 94 with an inconsistent curve, poor command, and no change used in the game (like James) is all about projection.  There is nothing wrong at all with drafting someone like that at some point, but I'd sooner draft a high schooler in the 3rd round or later who throws 91 and has a decent change. 

Not sure where you got your info...if you're using MLB's Draft reports remember that their scouting is done over 1-2 games max and isn't really updated so what you see one day could change greatly the next day.  This is BA's writeup on James:


#24 CHAD JAMES, LHP, YUKON (OKLA.) HS
James spent the offseason on a stringent conditioning program, and his hard work will pay off when he gets selected in the first round in June. After pitching in the high 80s and showing a mediocre curveball last year, he has gotten noticeably stronger. The 6-foot-4, 205-pounder now routinely sits at 90-92 mph and touches 95 with his fastball. While his curveball needs more consistency, it's close to a plus pitch at times. He continues to have success with a changeup that ranks as one of the best among this draft's high schoolers. James has some minor delivery issues, but he's so athletic that he should be able to make those tweaks with ease. His brother Justin was a fifth-round pick out of Missouri by the Blue Jays in 2003. Chad has committed to Oklahoma State, but his stock continues to rise, making it unlikely he'll make it to college.

Plus velocity for a LHP.  Curveball that looks like a potential plus pitch.  Changeup that he is already showing strong feel for.

I like Jenkins and if he's there then I'd like that pick, but a lot of mocks have him going as high as the Nationals at #10 now

I think that's only if the Nats are going with an easy signability pick at that point, or at least that's what was indicated by Mayo.  Besides that it didn't sound like he wouldn't be available at 20.

It's funny, you keep hearing about how unpredicable the draft is going to be after #1, but most mock drafts look very similar.

I think that's only if the Nats are going with an easy signability pick at that point, or at least that's what was indicated by Mayo.  Besides that it didn't sound like he wouldn't be available at 20.

Even if he doesn't go #10 I think he still could easily be gone by #20.  A lot of mocks right now have Arnett going #18-#19...and personally theres no way I'd draft Arnett ahead of Jenkins.  A lot can change, but Jenkins definitely isn't a lock to be there...even a team like Arizona could draft him with one of their back to back picks.

Hmm. 90-92 and a good change is better than 94 and no change.  Differing scouting reports are what cross-checkers, video and the like are for.  I'd like to see the actual video if I were making the decision. 

Personally, I treat Baseball America's scouting reports with a huge grain of salt.  They are well-respected, but the overall track record is, in my view, unimpressive. 

Justin James' best pitch was his changeup if I remember correctly.  You'd hope he's been able to teach it to his kid brother.

Keith Law has a new first round projection up.  James and Jenkins are both gone when the Jays pick.  Law now has the Jays taking Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt.  Heckathorn, Everett and  Arnett are also being watched by the Jays.

I'd hate that pick.

Law also has Scheppers and Purke out of the first round completely.  Outside of re-injury I fail to see why Scheppers would drop out completely, I cant see him having any bargaining leverage if the reasoning is that he wants above-slot money.  I fully expect him to sign for slot and go somwhere within the top 15.

I'd fully take Purke at #20.  I think the $4-5 million contract demands is a bluff to some extent...no backing but I feel he'll sign for much less than some of the numbers that are being throwqn around.

If the draft played like that I'd pop one of Scheppers/Purke and if you exclude them for whatever reason I'd take Everett Williams.

I would prefer the trend of focusing on up-the-middle athletic positional players (at CA, SS, CF).

Couple of high school hitters that stood out after reading their scouting reports at BA:

Catcher Wil Myers - ranked as being one of the top high school pure hitters by BA.  Some scouting comparisons to Dale Murphy.  Expected to stay behind the plate but scouts could see him at 2B or LF if catching doesnt work out.  BA had him ranked at #31 (from what i recall) - perhaps and overdraft with the Jays first round pick but likely not to be there in the supplemental round.

Shortstop Nick Franklin - ranked among the best high schoolers in strike zone judgement.  Scouting reports at BA have comparisons to Aaron Hill and Felipe Lopez.  However, unlike Hill, is fully expected to stick at SS.  Guess he is one of the big surgers recently - could possibly be there for the Jays in the supplemental round.  As I recall the last BA ranking had him at #48 but that was before he showed up in today's surger report...

I wouldnt mind one of the centerfielders that could be available - Everett Williams (HS), Mike Trout (HS), Jared Mitchell (College, with a next Carl Crawford comp).  As i recall the Jays had also been tied to AJ Pollock (College).  Trout worries me a bit as he comes from New Jersey where the high school competition is obviously weaker than what you would find in Florida or California - I am always thankful the Orioles went with Billy Rowell as opposed to another high schooler, like Snider, a few years ago...

C.

 

 

 

 

 

I like Myers, just not sure how ready he is to handle catching full time.  He's not advanced behind the plate and IMO HS catchers have quickly become the most risky prospects you can draft.  IMO if we were to draft Myers I'd strongly consider outright moving him to the OF or wherever else he's projected to fit in kind of like the Brewers did with Lawrie(sp?) because catching full time is a HUGE burden on young HS hitters.  The recent history has not been good with guys like Mesoraco transitioning horribly and even top talents like Skipworth struggling big time.

To me a much more interesting thing to look into would be drafting Luke Bailey in the 2nd/3rd round and throwing 1st to supplemental 1st round money at him.  A lot of reports are statng that he's not likely to get out of the 2nd/3rd round and that he's very much signable if you are willing to go over slot.  Remember that Bailey was the top prep catcher in the class before he was forced to undergo TJ surgery.  I'd be willing to throw money at him and let him heal, and this way you're not banking the top pick of your draft on a HS catcher so if he flops you'll still have the #20 and #38 picks to hopefully fall back on.