Funny how a 9 game losing streak shifts the Jays from massive depth in the pen and rotation with a solid offense to a team needing help everywhere :)

Lets do some overall checking...


Team OPS+: 107
Team ERA+: 106

Both are above average but neither are inspirational.  So lets dig a bit deeper.  I'm only checking majors/AAA/AA as lower levels will not be given a shot to help in 2009.

Lineup...
CA: Rod Barajas/Raul Chavez/ Michael Barrett - 101/28/40 - If Barajas doesn't play we might as well let the pitchers hit instead. 
What about the minors? 
J.P. Arencibia: 250/317/482 - recovered from a horrid start and might be almost ready.  Expect him to come up by the break or earlier if Barajas goes down.
Brian Jeroloman: 260/359/344 - in AA, hasn't done a lot and will only get to AAA when JPA gets to the majors I suspect with a shot at backup duty in 2010/2011.

1B: Overbay: 129 OPS+ has recovered.  Millar - 104 OPS+ is about the best we should hope for
Minors: Brian Dopirak: 294/365/528 and David Cooper: 247/308/346 are going opposite directions in AA, while Brett Harper/Randy Ruiz are hitting for 861 and 882 OPS in AAA but at 27 and 31 are AAAA guys now

2B: Hill: 138 OPS+ - nuff said.  Inglett hasn't played much but should be adequate based on 2008, McDonald is for defense only.
Minors: Howie Clark in AAA 755 OPS, Emaus in AA has hit 290/359/464 so far

3B: Rolen: 113 OPS+, Bautista: 114 OPS+ sweet.
Minors: Scott Campbell hitting 229/327/281 in AAA with a sub 900 fld% which isn't the best way of measuring fielding but if you are booting more than one in 10 plays you got a big issue, in AA 5 guys have 8 to 19 games at third

SS: Scutaro 124 OPS+ - WOW, McDonald 18 OPS+ in 18 PA's
Minors: Angel Sanchez: 276/352/359 in AAA, Luis Sanchez 239/321/321 in AA (only Sanchez's for SS I guess)

OF: Snider 79, Wells 92, Rios 89, Lind 120, Bautista 114 - two good, two ugh's and a guy sent back to AAA.
Minors: AAA: Buck Coats 827, Aaron Mathews 663, Jason Lane 656, AA: Cody Haerther 729, Sean Shoffit 573, Nick Gorneault 693, Adam Calderone 853 - Coats and Calderone are the only ones pushing at all for promo's

Other minors:  Al Quintana in AA has played CA/3B and hit 300/327/450 but is 26.  Russ Adams in AAA has hit 324/368/618 at DH/LF/2B but just 38 PA's.  Kyle Phillips in AAA has also done well in under 100 PA's 380/440/532 CA/1B/3B after 43 bad PA's in AA (483 OPS) and a good 2008 in AA (810 OPS).

So for offense we don't have a ton of help nearby.  Coats, Ruiz, and Harper could help on offense but doubt any will see ML action with Snider waiting to be called back up.  Campbell could've had a shot but has forgot which end of the bat to use and which hand to put the glove on in the field.  If Ruiz and Harper weren't hitting well in AAA we'd probably see Dopirak promoted soon, and still might as Matthews is near the end I suspect (at least as an everyday player) thus opening up LF for someone (and creating more fear for the pitchers regarding fly balls).

Pitching?
ML Starters...
8+ start crew - Halladay: 171 ERA+, Richmond: 124 ERA+, Tallet 104 ERA+ - a solid, if unexpected, big 3
4+ start crew - Purcey: 64 ERA+ (4.03 ERA in AAA), Ray 101 ERA+ (8 IP in minors 2 ER), Cecil: 103 ERA+ (7.43 ERA in AAA), Romero 146 ERA+ (7.07 ERA in 3 starts at 3 levels)
Others - Burres 32 ERA+ (4.61 AAA), Litsch 50 ERA+ (DL), Janssen 100 ERA+ (0.77 ERA over 23 1/3 IP in minors)
Looks like they picked the best 5 available for the moment although Cecil/Ray/Purcey will all try to regain their slots if any falter further.
Other minors: Fabio Castro has to be considered with his composite 2.01 ERA over 10 starts in AA/AAA with just 1 HR given up.  Reidier Gonzalez in AA has a 2.64.  Marc Rzepczynski has a 3.74 ERA in AA with more than a K per IP but with the log jam ahead of him I doubt he'll see ML action until next year.

ML Relief...
20+ Games: Carlson: 93 ERA+, Frasor: 186 ERA+, Downs: 175 ERA+.  All 3 have under 1 hit per IP, under 3 walks per 9, but Carlson has the worst BB-SO ratio at 1-2 and his 4.8 K/9 is way too low.
10+ Games: League: 103 ERA+, Camp 83 ERA+, Ryan 48 ERA+.  Ugh.  3.5 BB/9 is the best of this group (League) which explains why Cito hasn't shown much faith in them. 
Under 10: Murphy 142 ERA+ but 6.4 BB/9, Wolfe 79 ERA+ but 1.4 BB/9 8.5 K/9, Bullington 150 ERA+ but a walk an inning

So clearly the pen has Downs/Frasor = effective and used, Carlson = used, League/Wolfe = somewhat effective but not trusted, Camp/Ryan = emergency use only, others = AAA

Minors: Accardo 2.84 ERA with 17K in 19 IP 7 BB, Davis Romero is back to AA with 9 walks and 12 K's in 15 IP, Bayliss in AAA has a 2.48 ERA with 14 BB 33 SO in 29 IP.  Nothing that screams 'Tom Henke' down there.

The pen is a tough one to judge as ERA is very non-telling for relievers and most measures will not tell much due to their limited innings.  The rotation is strong but we need Romero, Richmond, and Tallet to stay strong (100+ in ERA+) for this team to stay with the big boys.