How would people feel about a Castro for Carlson swap?

It's ridiculous to consider demoting Jesse Carlson.   And to make him a scapegoat for the recent Jays problems is equally absurd.  Considering the demands placed on him by the Jays this year, he's done a fine job.   He has appeared in more games (23) than any other reliever in the entire league.  Fifteen of those appearances were with no days of rest, or with only one day of rest.   Yes, he's had one or two bad games (I'm thinking especially of his blown save against Cleveland on May 5 -- which the Jays eventually won) but every reliever has a couple of bad games.  In 17 of his appearances this year, Carlson did not allow any runs.   Yes, he allowed a run by the Braves last night, but you can't blame him for the loss -- the Jays failed to score a single run in the whole game!   He had a poor outing against the White Sox on May 18, but the Jays still won the game.  He took the loss against the Yankees on May 14, but the Jays scored only 2 runs in the entire game -- it would have taken a spectacular performance by the pitching staff to have won that game.  Carlson has pitched excellently for the past two seasons, with a WHIP of 1.036, and I can certainly understand Cito's faith in him.  Ideally, if BJ Ryan had been pitching up to his salary level, Cito wouldn't have needed to depend on Carlson so much this season, and he wouldn't be leading the league in appearances.  With normal rest and normal workload, he'd be pitching even better.

If we're looking for reasons for the Jays losses of late, put the blame squarely on the offence, which mustered only 5 runs in the past 4 games.  Blaming the hardest-working member of the bullpen is a little unfair.

I was kind of surprised to see him come in to face Diaz at the top of the inning

Strictly speaking, he was brought in to face the pitcher whom Cox then pinch-hit for with Diaz. I don't know if Cox had any lefties on the bench he could have gone to had Gaston opted for Frasor instead (perhaps the PH would have been Diaz regardless). I was expecting Frasor for two batters and then Carlson for the string of lefties in the 2 to 5 slots (Kotchman, Anderson, McCann and Johnson), so I share your surprise about seeing Carlson to start the inning, especially given that he's been struggling a bit lately. But Carlson seems to be a favourite of Cito's.

The worst part of the L last night was that it reduces the odds of Doc becoming the first 30-game winner since Denny McLain. 

Well, the odds were prohibitively against Halladay anyway. Even had he won, to earn his 9th win in 10 starts, he'd still have to win 21 of his remaining 23/24 starts, a clip of 88%-91%. McClain, in his big season, won 31 of 41 starts, a 76% rate.

Since 2002, Halladay has won 56% of his starts. Based on that trending, he's good for another 13 wins this season, or 21 wins in total. Just goes to show how hard it is to even win 20 games when you only start 33 or 34.

At least he was hustling. What a rollercoaster of emotions one felt in less than 1 second.

Vernon hits weak ground ball to 3B - *Sigh*

3B bobbles ball -  *we've done it, we've tied it, woo!*

3B quickly recovers, nails a genuinely hustling Wells at 1B by 1/8th step - *Oh, no we haven't. F***."

The Jays offence is coming back to earth with a thud.   Over the past six games, the Jays have hit just .190 with runners in scoring position, stranding 44 baserunners.  (Source: Jordan Bastian)   The pitching has actually been reasonably good in most games.  It's the offence that is beginning to reveal its weaknesses.

Cito, the Zen master, is inevitably preaching calm and patience. He's pointing to the 1991 season, when the Jays lost 7 games in a row in August and still won the title. "You can't panic," he told reporters calmly last night.

Not everyone will agree.  So, to quote one of Lenin's books:  What Is To Be Done? 

Cito's argument for patience is a strong one, but mostly because Wells and Rios simply can't be moved out of there.  There's really no use in trying to trade them, with their salaries and histories, and there's nobody available, realistically, who has a good chance of improving on their numbers.  The team just has to pray that the Dynamic Duo will improve, while Cito and Tennace spend their days poring over the video of their swings, looking for something, anything, to unlock their Hidden Power.

Anything else to be done?  While in church praying for the rehabilitation of Wells and Rios, we can also pray that Travis Snider finds his swing in Las Vegas and makes a quick return to the majors, although realistically that might take a few weeks at least.  Looking at the rest of the lineup -- there aren't very many obvious holes.  Even Lyle Overbay has an OBP of .370 and a SLG of .509.   But I'm becoming persuaded by those who argue that the LF/DH slot is where Ricciardi should be looking for a bat.  There's got to be someone out there -- anyone??  I like Joe Inglett as much as anyone does, but there's got to be someone better.

Yup, and his name is Nick Johnson. Apparently he can be had. Shift Lind back to LF and slide Johnson into DH.

What did Riccardi and the Gillick see in Ibanez that others didn't? Somehow they knew he would be leading the Majors in HR's after 7 weeks... We were so upset that the Jays didn't get Giambi or Burrell for cheap, although I strongly doubt either of those guys are going to keep being as bad as they have, and I doubt Ibanez will continue to be as good.

I think virtually every at bat I've seen with Wells over the past 3 games he's rolled over the ball and hit a grounder to either 3B or SS. Maybe he's a bit anxious and he's jumping at the ball too early, instead of letting it get deeper in the zone. If you constantly grounding the ball you are early.  Which is kind of ironic since he is as we all know, the pop up king. He seems to be making a lot of contact at least, I think it's only a matter of time before he starts lining the ball all over the place instead of grounding the bal to the left side. Which is too bad, I just traded him in my keeper league (someone dropped Granderson... why do people do these things?).

But hey, Wells has been a slow starter on more than one occasion, and in the grand scheme of things it is still early. And we are still in first place. It's not at that stressful breaking point where we are all saying "Well the team just needs to reel off 5 or 6 wins in a row, and we're right back in the thick of things". How often do you remember reading quotes like that last year? We are in the thick of things, right now, after a 5 game losing streak. But it sure would help if Wells and subsequently Rios can get it going.

IT'S KARMA!

Boston wins 11 in a row, New York wins 10 in a row, Toronto loses 5 in a row, our 3&4 hitters are stuggling and our bullpen is giving away games.  Our Blue Jays are still in 1st place.  It's time to look ahead.  If you are trading to improve your team, the sooner you start the better.  I doubt anything happens before Jesse Litsch is ready, but we'll see.

It was the offense that brought them back to the pack. It's going to be the rotation that fails them as they begin to lose ground.

This team just isn't as good as Boston, New York or Tampa. It might be the 4th or 5th best team in the American League, but in the end that won't matter.

As far as historical pattern of falling apart against NL teams in May, I recall a brutal sweep by Colorado Rockies in 2006 after a promising April which included a heroic extra inning win at Fenway. There are positives in today's situation, though.  1) Wildcard. 2) Ahead of the Yankees. 3) Orioles coming up with. 4) Brian Tallet and Ricky Romero coming up to be followed by Doc. 5) Hey, if you gonna lose why not get beat and find out some Stuff. 6) Technical Analysis shows a target of .925 for the Canadian Dollar near term with Dennis Gartman predicting par and beyond  medium term. 

I didn't get chance to watch the games this weekend, but was there any mention of Scott Downs be unable to pitch for any reason?  He hasn't pitched since the White Sox series according to Baseball Reference.

I know the Jays haven't had any save opportunities lately, but I'd be pretty disappointed if Camp saw action in a tie game today with both Frasor and Downs available.

It amazes me that Camp maintains his spot in the pen. He is just gawd awful! I can think of 3 or 4 pitchers in the minors who could do a much, much better job than him. The Braves announcers were saying some crazy stat like his given up 7 runs in his last 6 appearances? (not including today's disater?) His slider is oh-so hittable, hanging and asking to be crushed to left field.

And what's the deal with Cito and his lack of faith in Frasor? He should have started the inning. It was over by the time he came in thanks to Camp. 

Going forward it looks like Roy, Janssen, Richmond, Tallet and Romero. That's not a bad five.

I guess you can label it not a bad five because you really have no idea what 3 of those pitchers are going to give you.  I like Janssen but he's made one start after surgery and he didn't strike anyone out.   Romero has had 3 good starts.  Richmond is off to a good start but the track record is non-existant.  Even Tallet had made less then 10 starts in his entire career before this season.

The defense makes them look better then they have pitched.

I wasn't sold on the Yankees coming into the season, but 200+ million has bought a team that is going to win a boatload of games.  If they keep Sabathia healthy they have a chance to run away and hide even on the Red Sox. 

They still have to play the games, but there is no case to be made that the Jays can finish ahead of the Yankees other then an avalanche of injuries in New York.   The Jays bring a knife to the AL East gunfight.

I'm not saying what is going to happen.  I'm saying that any realistic look at the situation can only lead you to one expectation.  Unless injuries pile up the Yankees have a much better team and are probably going to finish well ahead of the Blue Jays. 

Anything can happen when they play the games, but you have to be realistic, if the Yankees fix the bullpen that team is a juggernaut.

The Yankees aren't as old as they used to be.

Using the baseball-reference methodolgy which isn't perfect (and includes Posada and A-Rod's injuries):

Yankees:

30.3 batting & 29.2 pitching

Baltimore:

29.6 & 29.8

Toronto:

29.9 & 28.8

Only Tampa is really younger

27.7 & 27.8