With Youkilis back in the lineup, tonight is another test for Cecil.  So far, so good.

I know it's unlikely to happen, but I wouldn't mind seeing Janssen start the finale against Baltimore and give Doc the 2 extra days rest and have him open the 2 game series vs. Boston. In either scenario Doc will make 10 more pre-AS break starts.

I predict a BoSox sweep. The Jays are starting to get a lot of attention for their efforts so far and that usually means they tank.

Also. Vernon should send Zito a thank you card for keeping his name out of discussion for who has the worst contract in the game.

Weird time to pick on Zito. He's having a fine season, and has a 2.21era, 1.15whip over his last 6 starts in 40.2ip. He might be overpaid, but he deserves credit for being to take the ball every 5th day since he signed that contract. Very few pitchers provide that sort of stability, and he hasn't exactly been Livan Hernandez-ing it.

There has been talk that Delgado's career could be over with this injury.  If so he would end with 473 home runs, 2038 hits, 1512 RBI and a 138 OPS+.  Just 2 all star games, 4 times in the top 10 for MVP (2nd his best finish).  He is at just 8 on the black ink test (avg HOF is at 27), 124 in grey ink (144 avg HOF), 109 on the HOF Monitor (100 = HOF), 44 on HOF Standards (50=avg HOF).

So, if it all ends now for Delgado is he the first 'originally signed by Toronto' player in the HOF (unless Jeff Kent beats him to it)?  What is interesting is that 5 times Fred McGriff was his most comparable by age.

Has anyone seen an explanation as to why Janssen is pitching at AA while Romero is at AAA?  Does it indicate a difference in their injury recovery times?  Does it say anything about their readiness to return to the majors, or are they both at a similar stage of readiness?   Is there any strategic reason why Janssen would be kept at AA rather than AAA?

New Hampshire did have a scheduled off-day the day before last when Romero pitched for Las Vegas.  Perhaps the club simply wanted to keep him on regular rest.

Chinafan, J.P recently made some comments about how Cecil has had just as much success at Romero at the ML level, and that he likes what Tallet and Ray have done so he's not sure if Romero will be back up any time soon. He's officially demoted... he put it as "we're making this up as we go along"...
I think that he's gonna ride the hot hand. If Ray's the closest to the chopping block so only if he falters, will Ricciardi call up Romero or Janssen... I'd say Romero would be the first one called up.
But Ray pitched fabulously in his last outing (of course, it was the slumping WhiteSox, so...)... so we'll just have to keep hoping Ray is lights out.

How 'bout that thrashing Tallet was taking last night by Boston's Cy Young announcer! he was dissing the Jays too...

I wouldn't concern myself too much with Eckersley's uninformed opinions on the Jays - he still has memories of Roberto Alomar's skip-hop the same way we do.

The REAL games begin tonight. "Knuckle" is a crap shoot - for both his team and the opposition. He can spin a magic web or an LSD induced nightmare. Last night we got the nightmare the Sox got the magic web. So be it, our guy they never heard of, spun a very nice web of his own and the next two days two other guys they've never heard of will be working some magic on Red Sox psyches.

Tonight the Sox offer up "Porky" and tomorrow they offer up "Didn't you used to be a prospect." Both these guys are beatable. Don't mean we'll beat them but it would not be an upset to beat them both.

PLEASE REMEMBER THIS - the Sox HAVE to win at least two of three of these games - at least as compared to what we HAVE to win. If we win the next two they're 4.5 back and may well be tied with the Spankies. We are in their park. To stay close they need the series or a sweep. We play these guys at Rogers next weekend. This is NOT a three game series over three days it's a six game series over thirteen days. We win four of the six and they are behind a very nice sized 8 ball. Back in the the last half of the 80's and the early 90's when we were the best team in basball over that 7 or 8 year period we lost LOTS of games - LOTS of series - LOTS of close ones.

Keep the faith, stay back in the box, wait for the pitch to come to you - and then - then - unleash an unholy fury that cracks the Green Monster - cracks it from top to bottom. We are the Jays - we own you.

On Cecil and Romero. Cecil is CLEARLY the better pitcher, the better prospect, and the better bet. He is - no question - our best pitching prospect and one of the top ten in baseball.

If Delgado is done now, no way is he a HOFer. However, I've yet to read anywhere that he is done.

He'll have hip surgery and probably be back in 12 weeks or so... or let's hope at least.

I definitely hope Delagdo`s not done.. or my fantasy season is probably done.
I think depending on how long the steroids outrage plays out.. Delgado could still have a shot even if he is done now.

Someone has a case of the "lose-a-game" blues.

Even if the Jays get swept, they are still a half-game up on the Bosox.  For late May, I'll take that thank you very much.

As long as they win one of the next two games, they will be 2.5 up on the Bosox and have the first visit to Fenway behind them.  I'll take that too.

Well put.  Even if they split those 6 games with the Bosox I will be very happy.

christaylor, what about the unknown if the confirmed-PED-users like A-Ro(i)d, Manny, Palmeiro, McGwire and, well, Bonds, never gain admission to the vaunted, cheater-free HOF?  Wouldn't that leave room for stats-poorer-stars like Delgado, and, by extension, McGriff?

Everything seems so fluid right now regarding the HOF, it's kind of frustrating.

P.S. MyLegacy, love your optimism, always good for a smile, especially after a depressing weak-pop-up-ridden game like last night.

People shouldn't be so surprised by Tallet.  Over the last 2 seasons, he has pitched 118 2/3 innings, with an ERA of 3.19, a WHIP of 1.27 and 101 K's.  He's been a very good pitcher for quite a while now, and was a starter earlier in his career.  

He has now made 7 starts since coming out of the bullpen.  In one of those, he got blasted for 10 runs, but the other starts have all been good.  His ERA in those 6 starts is 2.19.  In 5 of them he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs.  As much as I like Casey Janssen, Tallet is looking pretty solidly entrenched in the rotation.

As long as everyone in the rotation, aside from Doc, understands that the policy is a couple bad starts and you're not a starter anymore, then I'm fine with it.  What I worry is that Ray and Cecil (not so much Tallet as he seems to understand the situation better and is a vet) might be pretty let down if they have a few bad starts and are sent packing to Vegas. At some point, there has to be some loyalty to the starters who are winning you these games.  Just a question of when that loyalty kicks in.  How many quality starts do they have to give us before they're considered semi-permanent?

Sano, I hear you, but I think that the Jays have a pretty free hand to do what they want regardless of "loyalty" concerns.  On the one hand, the current fill-ins have pitched well; on the other, the rehabbing starters only lost their rotation spots due to injury.  I think the team has carte blanche to ride the hot hand(s), or not, as they see fit.

Here's the way I look at the starting pitcher situation.  Over a season, you'd like to get 1000-1050 innings out of your starters.  Knock on wood, Roy Halladay will give you 240 of those.  50-100 will be taken by pitchers who throw very just a few starts like Brian Burres.  So, you're aiming to get 700-750 innings out of Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, Robert Ray, Ricky Romero, Jesse Litsch, Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum.  That shouldn't be too hard without overtaxing any of them.  Several of them could definitely benefit from time in the bullpen at some point to reduce workload. 

My dream for 2009 culminates with a playoff rotation headed by Doc, Cecil and Marcum.

Hey, if they make it to the playoffs I'll be so happy I won't care if the top three starters are Adam Loewen, Whoopi Goldberg, and a small tray of raspberry puddings.

Oh man, I'd love some raspberry puddings right now!

In some ways the Jays are pretty lucky that the starters doing well right now are rookies because if they were veterans you'd be sure they would not react kindly to being demoted to AAA simply for getting injured.

I suppose it's a freeing situation for guys like Ray/Cecil.  The GM said they weren't ready, so all this stuff they're doing now is far beyond expectations such that even if/when they do get sent back down to AAA, it won't really feel like a demotion.  They'll feel like they actually showed their stuff to the brass.  Granted, the longer they stay up, the better they do, the harder and more management their possible demotions will be.  Suddenly expectations for a guy like Cecil have been raised tremendously, so what happens now if he starts to falter, it'll be a much harder pill to swallow for him I'd think.

Like I said before, as long as the pitching staff understands the situation, then we're ok.  It's when people's individual expectations start to get out of kilter that we run into problems.

Although I think MG was saying that his "dream" for this year ends with that rotation (an awesome dream, to be sure), I am in definite agreement that if they make the playoffs, it wouldn't matter to me who was pitching for them.  Of course, if they make the playoffs, the dream changes dramatically.

Re: cheaters -- who knows. As you say, every thing is fluid. It will however be a crime if Bonds does not get in. A-Rod will play long enough for the 'roid anger to have blown over. As for Manny, I have no idea. He's an idiot but I think that helps him in the long term. I wish the writers would just forget about "taint" and judge people on their merits but the McGwire situation points otherwise (his vote totals don't make much sense).

McGriff and Delgado (assuming he's done now, but I'm not sure if 3-4 decline years change things all that much) are clearly at best borderline HoFers. Given what they did well, hit for power, was done well in an era where it makes sense discount what they did well (not steroids but the factors of smaller ballparks, expansion thinning out the pitching). Also as defensively challenged 1B men they don't get a boost for any glove-work. I don't see either being HOFers but perhaps being viewed as clean will provide a boost as you say... I guess we'll find out soon. I see them both as being behind Thomas though, who'll almost certainly receive an anti-roid boost.

I'd like to see Blyleven. I would like to see Raines get in. They both rank higher as HOFers than McGriff or Delgado. Although I suspect I'm discounting Delgado because I was/am such a fan... so I'll say he doesn't get in, while all the while secretly hoping he's got 4+ 30 HR seasons in him and gets into the HOF with ease.

In the interim I need to find a bar in Hamilton that has TSN2 so I can see Cecil work against the Sawks.

Re: Christaylor- You said you wish the writers wouldn't worry about 'taint' and just judge people on their merits.  But isn't that exactly the point, that the writers would like to do that but because of the possible influence of steroids, they can't be sure what a player's 'merits' are.  It's almost impossible to pinpoint exactly when to start/stop counting their stats.

Fred McGriff was a Hall of Fame quality player. There's really not much to debate about it. He didn't hit enough home runs? He hit as many as Lou Gehrig, for God's sake. He was clearly a better player than Mark McGwire for almost his entire career. They were born in the same month, they came to the majors the same year, and through age 30 these were their career numbers:

          G    B   R    H   2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO BAVG  OBP  SLG  TB  SH  SF IBB HBP GDP RC  OPS+
McGriff 1147 3984 703 1136 202 16 262 710 45 23 679 920 .285 .389 .541 2156  2  32  94  17  89 860 153
McGwire  990 3342 546  834 137  5 238 657  6  7 585 756 .250 .361 .507 1695  3  47  49  29  83 640 143

The idea that McGwire was a greater player than McGriff rests entirely on the five year period that came next: the years from 1995 to 1999, when  McGwire found a way to keep his fragile body in the lineup; those years when he was able to somehow defy the normal process of decline in a way that no player in history had been able to do before him; those years when, after spending his career as one of the better first basemen of his time, but clearly not the best, he began performing at a level previously reached only by people like Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

Over the rest of their careers, before and after, McGriff was the better player - even in the final phase, when McGwire's enormous walk and homer totals made him a more productive hitter per at bat, McGriff was able to sustain a comparable and much more balanced type of production over almost three times as many games.

It seems to me that anyone who says that McGwire was a HoF quality player and McGriff was not is saying: a) the bar needs to be really, really, really high; b) McGriff could have been a HoF player too if he'd taken more interest in modern chemistry.

on the starting pitching decisions front, I thought I'd look up what our starting candidates have actually done in MLB overall....

 

career starting numbers:

J.Litsch (24): 51gms, 296.0ip, 20-19, 4.8k/9, 1.30whip, .748oops, 3.83era

B.Tallet (31): 13gms, 71.0ip, 3-4, 5.3k/9, 1.32whip, ???oops, 3.55era

S.Richmond (29): 13gms, 74.0ip, 5-5, 7.1k/9, 1.28whip, .762oops, 3.77era

R.Romero (24): 3gms, 2-0, 21.0ip, 5.6k/9, 1.10whip, .665oops, 1.71era

B.Cecil (22): 3gms, 2-0, 20.0ip, 6.8k/9, 1.05whip, .642oops, 1.80era

R.Ray (25): 3gms, 1-1, 20.0ip, 4.1k/9, 1.10whip, .723oops, 3.60era

C.Janssen (27): 17gms, 91.1ip, 4.1k/9, 1.30whip, .767oops, 5.22era

D.Purcey (27):   17gms, 90.2ip, 8.3k/9, 1.57whip, .814oops, 5.96era

Here's a brief bit on our man in Lansing:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=4125

 

 

I suppose it's a freeing situation for guys like Ray/Cecil.  The GM said they weren't ready, so all this stuff they're doing now is far beyond expectations such that even if/when they do get sent back down to AAA, it won't really feel like a demotion.

It probably raises the trade values of these young pitchers. Also, the Jays will simply not be able to drop any of them from the 40 man roster.

Also, the Jays will simply not be able to drop any of them from the 40 man roster.

Looking forward to the end of the season, who currently not on the 40 man roster needs to be put on in order to be protected? Given that other than John McDonald and Scutaro the club has no FAs, JP might be forced to trade for prospects just to make room.

I believe I was just pointing out that McGwire's totals don't make much sense and they don't make sense given the hype that surrounded him during his first year of eligibility or the hype that surrounded him during his career. No direct comparison of the two was intended to be expressed or implied. I certainly didn't mean to suggest that one was a HOF player and the other wasn't...

The one thing I wanted to get across about McGriff (and Delgado) was that their offensive production has to be adjusted according to the era that they played in. I don't think comparisons of anyone from this era to Gehrig are fair, to Gehrig. Also, Gehrig, had a little something cut his career at least 3-4 years short. Heck he could have hit 100 fewer home runs and would have been elected to the HOF. They made a movie about him. No one's going to make a movie about McGriff. But don't get me wrong... its not that I have anything against McGriff. I have fond memories of him pounding the ball and maybe with players that I like (I'm definitely like this with Delgado) I tend to think that it is unlikely that they'll be honoured by the HOF. This probably has something to do with the treatment of Tom Cheek, but I digress.

W/McGriff I don't think it is that hard for someone (note not me) to argue that he isn't a HOF player because of his career trajectory. Never finished higher than 4th in MVP. He never hit the "fame" part of the HoF. Not exactly a great argument... but I don't think the people voting need great arguments.

Blair described how he fills out his HOF ballot on the radio on Monday. He said he spends a second on each player going yes/no/no/no/yes... and so on. I have a hard time thinking that 75% of writers will ever get the gut feeling of "yes" on McGriff. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he gets in, but if he doesn't I won't be surprised because Blair flat out said "that if you need statistics to tell you that someone is a HOF player, then they're not a HOF player"... McGriff is in that category of those requiring a statistical argument; the HOF monitors and such on baseball-reference flat out tell one that. They say something different w/McGwire.

I wonder when the best time to give Cecil his bullpen holiday is, based on the returning starters' ETA, the Jays' schedule, and where he ranks among the Jays' starters in terms of talent right now (in other words, how much he's needed for a playoff push).

Inning 5. 8-0. Can someone explain to me how the hell Cito could leave this kid in to rot through the last 4 batters. He was getting clubbed. I have supported Cito all year, but today's decision was APPALLING

Watering the garden during the bottom of the fifth might have been a good idea. Cecil's first rough outing came under difficult circumstances.  For another pitcher, I would be worried about confidence levels.  In Cecil's case, I think that he'll learn from the experience.  Cito shares my view of Cecil's makeup apparently, and he, of course, is much better placed to make the judgment. 

Not coming out to at least talk to Cecil after the Ortiz HR and Youkilis scorch job was beyond inexcusable.

Coming out to talk to the pitcher is usually the pitching coach's job.

Needed more offense against Penny anyway.

Imagined conversation between Cito and Cecil after the 5th: "Remember those Sox that you made look foolish last week...THESE ain't THOSE Sox."

I wonder if Cito thought it was David Wells out on the mound.

Penny was just awful but the Jays couldn't punish him. Fell behind all game and could only throw fastballs for strikes. Jays swung at ball four on a few occasions. 3 runs on 14 hits? Ugly.

So, I would guess one more rough start will send Cecil to AAA. Personally I'd rather he be there, at least until later in the season when he's had more exposure to advanced, AAA pitching. Going to be great in the future, the stuff is all there if everything clicks to be a legit Ace, just needs time. He doesn't turn 23 until July.

Be nice to avoid a sweep tomorrow, but I have a feeling Ray's peripherals are about to catch up to him.

 

I figure maybe tonight we saw the "just faced a knuckleballer" effect.

Given that Penny wasn't exactly blowing them away.

As for Cecil, I would suggest Cito left him too long and I don't file this under "awful start" in the normal sense and I think he'd have to have another one where he just stunk before the conversation about going down would even BEGIN.

Frankly, If my theory is right, Janssen will replace Ray after the double off-days in any case and Cecil will stay until either (a) he completely falls apart; or (b) Romero or Purcey is so dominating AAA that you simply can't deny them.

I, for one, had rather see one of those guys force the issue and Cecil go down simply so that his innings can be managed as to see him go down because he became ineffective. Far better to go back with confidence you can handle the bigs than to go back doubting yourself.

Looking forward to the end of the season, who currently not on the 40 man roster needs to be put on in order to be protected? Given that other than John McDonald and Scutaro the club has no FAs, JP might be forced to trade for prospects just to make room.

Keep in mind that there are three spots open right now. In addition to the two players you named, Barajas is a FA as are Kevin Millar and Chavez.

If more room is needed, Camp could easily be non-tendered and Murphy would be no great loss if outrighted (and might not even be claimed).

That's 10 open spots.

As to who needs adding, the obvious candidates are:

Jeroloman
Campbell
Ginley
and Rieder Gonzalez.

I'm guessing Fabio Castro might also qualify but I've not looked him up.

We should be fine.

Castro would need to be added to the 40 man.

Other possibles include: Edgar Estanga (great numbers in AA), Brian Dopirak (again great in AA), maybe Brandon Magee if he really figures something out. If Joel Carreno comes back sometime and pitches like Luis Perez did last year he would likely need to be added, but that's looking remote right now.

BTW where are Carreno and Castillo Perez anyway? I would have thought Visa issues would be settled by now.

 

ouch! Forgot Dopirak.

Frankly, If my theory is right, Janssen will replace Ray after the double off-days in any case and Cecil will stay until either (a) he completely falls apart; or (b) Romero or Purcey is so dominating AAA that you simply can't deny them.

If I read that correctly, in his last 2 starts, Purcey is  17.0 IP, 14 K, 4 BB, 1 R.

It would seem to me that today's game will be crucial for the bandwagon jumpers.  If they win, the bandwagon rolls on.  But if they lose...look out.

Which is sad, really.  Tuesday was a tough loss that could go either way (and the Jays always seem to have trouble with Wakefield...at least, whenever I watch the game).  Yesterday seemed like a classic "nothing could quite go right" type game.  And today we have the biggest pitching disadvantage of the series. 

As I said before, even if they get swept, getting swept by the Bosox from May 19-21 and still being in 1st place?  I would have taken that at the beginning of the year, thank you very much.

Bobby Ray ain't going nowhere, cuz that's where he came outta from, and that is all you need to know.

There was lots of chatter in the media yesterday about sending Snider down to AAA during inter-league play.  The reason is that Snider might not play much during the road inter-league games with Lind in LF.  The issue is who do you bring up?  Obvious utility guys like Joe Inglett and Russ Adams are on the DL.  The AAA OF is Buck Coats, Jason Lane and Aaron Mathews.  Lane is hitting around .220 and Coats had been playing better but is slumping right now.  The best bats on the team are Randy Ruiz and Brett Harper, both 1B and DH types, who could be recalled for pinch hitting duties.  Inglett is the only AAA position player on the 40 man roster.

Gerry, any updates on the status of Carreno or Castillo Perez?

In the immediate future, the Jays play the Braves and then the Orioles.  With the Braves scheduled to throw 3 right-handed starters, it would be a reasonable time to give Wells and Rios a day of rest (on different days of course).  You then run out an outfield of Lind, Wells/Rios, Snider. 

A piece of sad news for a former Jays LOOGY:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4188199

Re Magpie/ #200299,

I agree with the comments about McGriff/McGwire entirely and have made much the same point here and over at Primer.  The tricky part from an analytical perspective, though, is not only McGwire but any number of other players who used chemicals at the time (perhaps including first basemen Bagwell, Palmeiro).

The other muddy aspect is that the Hall has not done a poor job of weighing offensive vs. defensive abilities.  There are any number of better overall players than Fred of the last 40 years who are not in the Hall.  So, while McGriff was, in my view, clearly a better player than McGwire, they probably should both be out, in favour of players such as Whitaker, Grich, Santo, Reggie Smith...

by the way, sign me up for the idea of inserting Janssen into one of the Atlanta or Baltimore games and pushing Doc back to the Red Sox Series.

You could do it like this

AB - Doc
AB - Janssen - 1
AB - Richmond
BO - Tallet
BO - Cecil
BO - Ray

BRS - Doc
BRS - Janssen
BRS - Richmond

LAA - Tallet
LAA - Doc
LAA - Janssen
KCR - Cecil/Romero/Purcey -2
KCR - Richmond
KCR - Tallet
 
1 = Pushes back Richmond and Tallet to the extra day's rest but it pushes one of them out of the Red Sox series since you keep them from facing a guy they just saw last week

2 = Not RR or DP's regular day, which might matter. Could be Ray also which would defeat this purpose but i inserted Cecil/Romero in front of Richmond in order to provide seperation from Tallet's spot. If it's Cecil, then you hold the promotion back until you decide it's time to send him down or put Tallet back in the pen, either of which is tough to predict right now.

In addition to Mike's remarks, there are some recent players who will erroneously be lumped together when the offensive context of the times is considered.

Run scoring in the 1980's, save for the famous anomalous year, 1987 (the balls are juiced!), was not what it was in the 90's and beyond. So players like McGriff, who played chunks of their careers in slightly run-suppressed environments, may not be getting their full due from Rosie and her BBWAA gang (to say nothing of guys like Grich who played in the far more run-suppressed 70's).

And I am totally on board with Mike in defending those middle infielders whom the BBWAA discriminates against for not hitting like corner outfielders.

But a rant against HoF voting is a futile one and the ground is very well travelled. It's a path that has drawn us all at one time or another. Kudos to those of you who continue to travel it with passion.

 

Not coming out to at least talk to Cecil after the Ortiz HR and Youkilis scorch job was beyond inexcusable.

Arnsberg came out after the Ortiz HR.