I was saving this for tomorrow, but with the prospect of three pitchers hitting the DL all at once, it seems best to add this information to the discussion.
Back in November 2006, Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote a column identifying a group of young pitchers he expected would struggle in the coming season. What concerned him was something he called the "Year-After Effect:"
It's based on a general rule of thumb among executives and pitching coaches: young pitchers should not have their innings workload increased by more than 25 or 30 innings per year.
Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to examine Toronto pitchers over the years, and see what we could see. Let's begin with the current group, work our way back, and flag anything that looks interesting:
Brett Cecil
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur Increase
2008 21 118.2 ---- 118.2 6.2
2007 20 112.0 ---- 49.2 62.1
Nothing to see here. Yet. But you can understand why a lot of people think it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Cecil may find himself working out of the Jays' bullpen later this year. If he's back in the major leagues at all. Cecil pitched mostly in relief in college, he's still very young, and I don't know that I would want to see him pitch much more than 150 innings in 2009. Well, he's almost halfway there already (73.2 IP) and it's still June.
Robert Ray
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur Increase
2008 24 167.0 ---- 167.0 ---- 100.1
2007 23 66.2 ---- 66.2 ---- 18.0
2006 22 48.2 ---- 48.2 ---- -77.1
2005 21 126.0 ---- 61.2 64.1
That 100 inning jump from 2007 to 2006 certainly looks alarming - however Ray was injured in both 2006 (14 games, 9 starts) and 2007 (18 games, 15 starts). I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news. The good news is that Ray went through injuries at ages 22 and 23 - most pitchers do - but survived to make it to the major leagues. Lots of pitchers don't, and the injuries meant he didn't throw a lot of innings at a young age. The bad news, of course, is that he got hurt. Pitchers who injure themselves once will often injure themselves again. That's what pitching does to most human arms.
Jesse Litsch
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseEverything appears as you would want it, but he hurt himself anyway. Litsch was a draft and follow out of high school in 2004 who pitched in community college before turning pro in 2005. Don't know how much he pitched, however.
2008 23 196.0 176.0 20.0 ---- 8.2
2007 22 187.1 111.0 76.1 ---- 28.2
2006 21 158.2 ---- 158.2 ---- 83.0
2005 20 75.2 ---- 75.2 ----
Ricky Romero
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseThe bump last season is 39 IP more than his previous high as a pro, but Romero pitched more than that as a 20 year old, and he pitched 155 IP in college while still a teenager. I'd still hope he can be kept below 200 IP this year.
2008 23 164.1 ---- 164.1 ---- 71.1
2007 22 93.0 ---- 93.0 ---- -32.2
2006 21 125.2 ---- 125.2 ---- -39.0
2005 20 166.2 ---- 32.2 134.0
Casey Janssen
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseNo red flags as a pro; the frightening data comes from his days at UCLA.
2008 26 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2007 25 72.2 72.2 ---- ---- -64.0
2006 24 136.2 94.0 42.2 ---- -12.0
2005 23 148.2 ---- 148.2 ---- -18.0
2004 22 166.2 ---- 50.0 116.2 94.2
2003 21 72.0 ---- ---- 72.0
David Purcey
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreasePurcey went by his previous career high by 42 IP last year - however, he was already 26 years old by that time. Like Janssen, it's that final year of college that looks most alarming.
2008 26 182.0 65.0 117.0 ---- 120.0
2007 25 62.0 ---- 62.0 ---- -78.0
2006 24 140.0 ---- 140.0 ---- 2.2
2005 23 137.1 ---- 137.1 ---- 4.2
2004 22 132.2 ---- 12.0 118.2 60.0
2003 21 ---- ---- ---- 72.2
Shaun Marcum
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseHis workload since turning pro has been remarkably consistent over the years - the drop in 2006 is largely because he spent the first month of the season pitching out of the pen. He has never thrown a complete game in the major leagues - the most pitches he has ever thrown in a major league game is 114 (last May, 8 innings of two-hit shutout against Cleveland.) The big jump in Marcum's first full year as a pro is created for the most part by his changing role - he pitched out of the bullpen in college and when he first turned pro. In 2004 he went into the rotation.
2008 26 168.1 151.1 17.0 ---- 9.1
2007 25 159.0 159.0 ---- ---- 28.0
2006 24 131.0 78.1 52.2 ---- -34.0
2005 23 165.0 8.0 157.0 ---- 17.0
2004 22 148.0 ---- 148.0 ---- 60.0
2003 21 78.0 ---- 34.0 44.0
David Bush
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseLike Cecil, Bush was a reliever at college. Bush, however, was older when he turned pro and older when he made his ML debut. Not piling up a lot of innings early on was probably good for him, but switching from the pen to the rotation did make his innings jump.
2005 25 191.1 136.1 55.0 ---- -6.1
2004 24 197.2 97.2 100.0 ---- 39.2
2003 23 158.0 ---- 158.0 ---- 62.1
2002 22 95.2 ---- 35.2 60.0 21.2
2001 21 74.0 ---- ---- 74.0
Davis Romero
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseThe big jump in Romero's innings pitched comes about because he started working as a starter in 2004 after pitching exclusively in relief as a 20 year old. He was starting some of the time, anyway. Actually, Romero went back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation for three seasons running, from 2004 through 2006. It doesn't seem to have agreed with him.
2008 25 106.2 ---- 106.2 106.2
2007 24 ---- ---- ----- -----
2006 23 134.2 16.1 118.1 10.0
2005 22 124.2 ---- 124.2 21.2
2004 21 103.0 ---- 103.0 61.1
2003 20 41.2 ---- 41.2 -8.1
2002 19 50.1 ---- 50.1
Brandon League
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseLeague was moving from short season A ball as a 19 year old to regular and advanced A ball the following season. He was working pretty well exclusively as a starter during these years - 73 of his 75 appearances in those first three seasons came as a starter.
2008 25 67.1 33.0 34.1 29.0
2007 24 38.1 11.2 26.2 -59.0
2006 23 97.1 42.2 54.2 -1.1
2005 22 98.2 35.2 63.0 -10.0
2004 21 108.2 4.2 104.0 -28.2
2003 20 137.0 ---- 137.0 51.2
2002 19 85.2 ---- 85.2 47.0
2001 18 38.2 ---- 38.2
Dustin McGowan
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseDustin McGowan shows up with two seasons flagged, which is alarming. He's also lost one season to Tommy John surgery (shortly after the first flagged season) and a second year to shoulder surgery (soon after the second flagged year.) McGowan was one of the pitchers Verducci singled out as someone to be concerned about. So yeah, I guess you could see that one coming.
2008 26 111.1 111.1 ---- -80.1
2007 25 191.2 169.2 22.0 80.1
2006 24 111.1 27.1 84.0 10.0
2005 23 101.1 45.1 56.0 70.1
2004 22 31.0 ---- 31.0 -121.1
2003 21 152.1 ---- 152.1 4.0
2002 20 148.1 ---- 148.1 81.1
2001 19 67.0 ---- 67.0 42.0
2000 18 25.0 ---- 25.0
Gustavo Chacin
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseVerducci also singled out Chacin as someone to be worried about - his 203 IP in the majors in 2005 surpassed his previous career high by 35. Chacin's arm fell off soon afterwards, of course. (The big jump in 2004 is simply Chacin returning to the rotation after pitching out of the bullpen in 2003.)
2008 27 45.2 ---- 45.2 8.2
2007 26 37.0 27.1 9.2 -65.2
2006 25 102.2 87.1 15.1 -100.8
2005 24 203.0 203.0 ---- 35.0
2004 23 168.0 14.0 154.0 98.2
2003 22 69.1 ---- 69.1 -50.1
2002 21 119.2 ---- 119.2 -20.2
2001 20 140.1 ---- 140.1 7.2
2000 19 132.2 ---- 132.2 68.2
1999 18 64.0 ---- 64.0
Roy Halladay
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseHalladay's big jump is 2001 partially reflects the fact that he'd pitched quite a bit in relief in 1999 and 2000 - he didn't actually surpass his previous career high (established when he was still a teenager) by very much. The real big jump in his season workload happens when he's 25, and it looks like he was mature enough to handle it.
2004 27 133.0 133.0 ---- -133.0
2003 26 266.0 266.0 ---- 26.2
2002 25 239.1 239.1 ---- 63.1
2001 24 176.0 105.1 70.2 34.2
2000 23 141.1 67.2 73.2 -8.0
1999 22 149.1 149.1 ---- 19.0
1998 21 130.1 14.0 116.1 -32.0
1997 20 162.1 ---- 162.1 -2.1
1996 19 164.2 ---- 164.2 114.1
1995 18 50.1 ---- 50.1
Kelvim Escobar
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseEscobar worked almost exclusively as a starter before coming to the majors (where the Blue Jays, notoriously, changed their minds roughly every five minutes as to whether he would start or relieve for them.) I don't know why he has that huge jump in 1996 - I assume there was an injury the year before when he was at Medicine Hat.
2003 27 180.1 180.1 ---- 102.1
2002 26 78.0 78.0 ---- -48.0
2001 25 126.0 126.0 ---- -54.0
2000 24 180.0 180.0 ---- 6.0
1999 23 174.0 174.0 ---- 34.2
1998 22 139.1 79.2 59.2 72.0
1997 21 67.1 31.0 36.1 -97.0
1996 20 164.1 ---- 164.1 95.0
1995 19 69.1 ---- 69.1 4.1
1994 18 65.0 65.0
Chris Carpenter
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseHis 1997 just makes the Verducci list - if he'd retired one fewer batter, it wouldn't be noted. He's been spectacularly great and spectacularly unhealthy since leaving the organization, but it's hard to pin that on anything that was done to him here.
2002 27 98.0 73.1 24.2 -117.2
2001 26 215.2 215.2 ---- 40.1
2000 25 175.1 175.1 ---- 21.1
1999 24 154.0 150.0 4.0 -21.0
1998 23 175.0 175.0 ---- -26.1
1997 22 201.1 81.1 120.0 30.0
1996 21 171.1 ---- 171.1 7.2
1995 20 163.2 ---- 163.2 79.0
1994 19 84.2 ---- 84.2
Todd Stottlemyre
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseTodd Stottlemyre was a fabulously hyped prospect back in the day - his 1989 season gets highlighted but there's really nothing to see there. He pitched out of the major league bullpen a fair amount in 1988, which reduced his innings that season. It is somewhat startling to see a 21 year old throw 200 IP in the minors. Those were the days.
1992 27 174.0 174.0 ---- -45.0
1991 26 219.0 219.0 ---- 16.0
1990 25 203.0 203.0 ---- 19.2
1989 24 183.1 127.2 55.2 37.0
1988 23 146.1 98.0 48.1 -40.1
1987 22 186.2 ---- 186.2 -16.0
1986 21 202.2 ---- 202.2
Pat Hentgen
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseHentgen's big jump in 1993, like several others we have seen, is entirely a matter of a pitcher moving from the major league bullpen to the major league rotation. That year Hentgen actually surpassed his previous career high (established when he was 18 years old!) by only 28 IP.
1996 27 265.2 265.2 ---- 65.0
1995 26 200.2 200.2 ---- 26.0
1994 25 174.2 174.2 ---- -41.2
1993 24 216.1 216.1 ---- 146.0
1992 23 70.1 50.1 20.0 -108.1
1991 22 178.2 7.1 171.1 25.1
1990 21 153.1 ---- 153.1 2.0
1989 20 151.1 ---- 151.1 0.0
1988 19 151.1 ---- 151.1 -36.2
1987 18 188.0 ---- 188.0 148.0
1986 17 40.0 ---- 40.0
Jimmy Key
Year Age IP Majors Minors Amateur IncreaseKey was a starter in college and in the minors who spent a year in the major league bullpen before moving into the rotation. Like several others on this list (Purcey, Janssen), we see a big jump in the final year of college/first year as a pro. Key was never quite the same - not quite as good, not quite as durable - after pitching 261 IP in 1987. He was still pretty good, though.
1988 27 152.2 131.1 21.1 ---- -108.1
1987 26 261.0 261.0 ---- ---- 29.0
1986 25 232.0 232.0 ---- ---- 19.8
1985 24 212.2 212.2 ---- ---- 150.2
1984 23 62.0 62.0 ---- ---- -128.1
1983 22 190.1 ---- 190.1 ---- -15.0
1982 21 205.1 ---- 89.1 116.0 104.1
1981 20 91.0 ---- ---- 91.0
David Wells
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseWells lost his age 22 season to Tommy John surgery, and eventually made it to the majors to stay as a relief pitcher. As a result, he was already 27 years old before he pitched more innings in a year than he had at A ball. Seemed to work for him, he was durable and effective forever.
1990 27 189.0 189.0 ---- 102.2
1989 26 86.1 86.1 ---- 16.1
1988 25 70.0 64.1 5.2 -68.2
1987 24 138.2 29.1 109.1 63.1
1986 23 75.1 ---- 75.1 75.1
1985 22
1984 21 101.0 ---- 101.0 -56.0
1983 20 157.0 ---- 157.0 92.1
1982 19 64.1 ---- 64.1
Luis Leal
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseLeal was used as a swing man by Bobby Mattick in 1981 - the next year, he was featured in a four man rotation, making the majority of his starts on three days rest. It didn't seem to hurt him at the time, but soon after August 1, 1984 he went right off the cliff. At that date, Leal (aged 27) was 12-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Over the rest of the season, he went 1-6, 5.95 and after beginning the next season 3-6, 5.75 his major league career was over.
1984 27 222.1 222.1 ---- 5.0
1983 26 217.1 217.1 ---- -32.1
1982 25 249.2 249.2 ---- 120.0
1981 24 129.2 129.2 ---- -40.0
1980 23 169.2 59.2 110.0 13.2
1979 22 156.0 ---- 156.0
Dave Stieb
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseEvery now and then a miracle happens. Stieb had pitched very little at all before turning pro - he was drafted as an outfielder (although the Jays scouts, even then, thought his future was on the mound) - and he turned out to be a natural. A bonafide, honest-to-goodness natural. They gave him these enormous workloads at a young age... and he didn't merely survive. He prospered. He pretty well never missed a start for more than 10 years and he was in his twelfth major league season when he finally went on the Disabled List. He was a freak, I tell you. A miracle, anyway.
1985 27 265.0 265.0 ---- -2.0
1984 26 267.0 267.0 ---- -11.0
1983 25 278.0 278.0 ---- -10.1
1982 24 288.1 288.1 ---- 104.2
1981 23 183.2 183.2 ---- -59.0
1980 22 242.2 242.2 ---- 11.1
1979 21 231.1 129.1 102.0 205.1
1978 20 26.0 ---- 26.0
Jerry Garvin
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseGarvin and Jim Clancy (the final entry) are the only pitchers considered here who began their professional careers in another organization - the Toronto Blue Jays, of course, weren't around in 1974. Garvin was drafted out of high school by Minnesota - he was a first round pick (11th overall) in 1974, and one wishes the Twins had taken better care of him. He had pitched 841 pro innings by the time he was 21, and his arm fell off when he was 22. I think he really could have amounted to something, with better management and care. This guy drew the short straw.
1982 26 75.2 58.1 17.1 22.2
1981 25 53.0 53.0 ---- -29.2
1980 24 82.2 82.2 ---- -51.0
1979 23 31.2 22.2 9.0 -113.0
1978 22 144.2 144.2 ---- -100.0
1977 21 244.2 244.2 ---- 11.2
1976 20 233.0 ---- 233.0 32.0
1975 19 201.0 ---- 201.0 38.0
1974 18 163.0 ---- 163.0
Jim Clancy
Year Age IP Majors Minors IncreaseClancy was also drafted out of high school in 1974 - Texas took him in the fourth round. The Rangers appear to have managed him prudently enough in his first three years as a pro. It was the Blue Jays who took over at that point, and started pushing vigourously to find what his limits might be. While 1977 is alarming enough, the real big jump in his 1980 season - he was 24 and he pitched 250 IP - is the one that really makes one wonder. That season, it turned out, would be the the best season of Clancy's career (he would have better W-L records as a decent team assembled behind him, but he would never pitch better.) Clancy was a big strong guy and he looked like a very dependable type of pitcher and person. But three of his Toronto seasons were disrupted by injury (1979, 1981, 1985 - appendicitis that last time) and another three seasons were ruined by sudden and total loss of effectiveness (he started 1984 by going 6-10, 5.47; he finished 1986 by going 0-7, 4.89; he started 1988 by going 4-11, 5.52).
1983 27 223.0 223.0 ---- 56.1
1982 26 266.2 166.2 ---- 141.2
1981 25 125.0 125.0 ---- -125.2
1980 24 250.2 250.2 ---- 187.0
1979 23 63.2 63.2 ---- -130.0
1978 22 193.2 193.2 ---- -1.0
1977 21 194.2 76.2 118.0 69.2
1976 20 125.0 ---- 125.0 -23.0
1975 19 148.0 ---- 148.0 95.0
1974 18 53.0 ---- 53.0
(This piece briefly went live before I had finished it - I forgot when I had set it to detonate. Silly me. But it attracted two quick comments, which then prompted me to get off my butt and actually look up what amateur numbers I could find. Which made this piece better. Lucky me!)
