Disclaimer - the following is an article I wrote for Baseball Prospectus Idol, a contest whose purpose is to find a new writer for BP. The ten finalists have been announced, and, well, I am not among them. But I wanted this piece to see the light of day, so enjoy!
Disclaimer 2 - this piece was written before, um, certain events took place. Fortunately, these events only strengthen the article's main point!
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For the last few years, the Seattle Mariners were crippled, like many teams before them, by one bad contract. However, unlike the obscenely large contracts thrown at Mike Hampton and Barry Zito, to name a couple, this handicap wasn’t a result of the sheer dollars involved; rather, of the importance placed on the position filled by the contract, and the ineptitude of the jobholder. By now, you’ve likely realized I’m referring to former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi. Well, good news: this past off-season, the Mariners finally cut their losses by firing Bavasi and hiring former Brewers’ scout Jack Zduriencik.
Zduriencik made a number of notable moves over the winter, including a large three-way trade with the Indians and Mets. Big Z also reduced the Mariners’ payroll and didn’t sign any middling free agents to the kinds of crippling contracts Bavasi was known for. In addition, he finally signed the M’s first round pick from the June 2008 draft, Josh Fields.
We knew all along that Zduriencik would bring many of the positive skills that he developed with the Brewers, namely an eye for amateur talent and a focus on internal player development. It appears at first blush that he also possesses a knack for smart financial management.
However, I am here to tell you that the Mariners made the wrong choice. Despite all of Zduriencik’s strengths, there was a candidate out there who surpasses him in nearly every field in which a GM must be competent. A candidate who understands the fiscal intricacies of running a baseball team, who is a smart and cunning negotiator and dealmaker, who can strike a balance between traditional scouting and statistical analysis, and who is well versed in roster construction.
I am speaking, of course, of Manny Ramirez.
Now, this is not an indictment of Jack Zduriencik. Far from it – of what we’ve seen so far, Jack Z appears to be an excellent GM and Mariners fans should be excited about their favourite team’s future. Rather, this is an exploration of “what could have been”. What if the government did fake the moon landing? What if the Florida ballots weren’t shaped like butterflies – what would have been the no-butterfly effect? (Pun definitely intended.) What if the Mariners hired Manny Ramirez to be their general manager? These are the questions of our time.
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Consider the “Manny situation” this past off-season. I’m sure you know the story: Manny wanted a huge contract, the economy sucked, so he signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers. This was not an uncommon situation; many other free agents signed short-term deals in an attempt to re-enter the market in a year or two. Even though San Francisco made a bit of noise, there wasn’t much doubt Manny would end up with LA, even if it did take months for a signature to appear on a contract.
Now, it seems to me, in an economy as weak as this, one would be prudent to consider all their options. If you were looking to buy a house, would you limit yourself to only those houses designed by Frank Lloyd Wright? Of course not. And Manny Ramirez shouldn’t limit himself to being just a player.
Why not? Well, for one thing, while Manny ended up with a pretty luxurious contract in terms of annual value, it was length he was really after. General managers often receive longer contracts, since there isn’t much of an inherent injury risk that accompanies the job (though there have been rumours surfacing recently that Frank Wren will miss the next 12-16 months for Tommy John surgery). Second, think about Manny’s next contract – in addition to signing in a better economic climate than this past off-season, consider how much money Manny could get if he could offer the smarts and know-how to re-build a team from the ground up along with his hall of fame-level bat?
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By now I’ve likely convinced you that Manny overlooked one of his best options for employment this winter. The remaining question, however, is why teams looking for a GM should have considered the man behind the dreads. Does Manny really have all those traits a great GM needs? Does he have an impeccable eye for talent, a knack for responsible fiscal management, a general cunningness in the trade room? The answer is a resounding yes, and here’s why.
Manny learned from the best. To begin his career, he played for eight years under the esteemed John Hart in Cleveland, and then spent another seven and a half seasons learning from Theo Epstein and the Red Sox’ formidable front office. And there’s no doubt Manny was soaking it all in – you can take that to the bank. If there’s one trait Manny is known for, it’s his uncanny prescience. One look into his eyes and one is filled with an overwhelming sensation that Manny just knows – he is so aware, aware of everything that’s going on around him, like some sort of omnipotent being.
As for an eye for talent, well, who has a better eye for talent than one of the best right-handed hitters the game has ever seen? Manny’s impressive career totals place him 3rd among active players in OPS and RBIs and 6th in home runs, and these are just a few of his offensive accomplishments. If I know anything about teaching (and as a teacher, I like to think that I do), I know that those who possess a skill to a great degree are always the best candidates to pass on their wisdom to the next generation. Mike Tyson, Ludwig Van Beethoven, Hannibal Lecter, all virtuosos in their own right who were also capable of the patience and compassion necessary to pass on their gift.
Having established Manny’s prowess as a hitter, we now turn to defense. Much has been written over the last few years about the importance of defense, and John Dewan of Fielding Bible fame even proclaimed his discovery that defense is worth about half as much as offense as “the most significant discovery of [his] career”. Thus, it has become increasingly important for general managers to be well versed in defensive metrics and evaluation, and to carefully consider the balance between offense and defense when making personnel decisions. Who better to push defensive evaluation in new, revolutionary directions than an actual baseball player with a thorough understanding of the defensive intricacies of the game?
Now, much has been made about the Mariners’ potentially historically great outfield defense this year: Endy Chavez, Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez are all above average in center field, so imagine how many fly balls they’ll be able to track down in spacious SafeCo Field. However, consider how much better they could be if they had a former outfielder running the team. Usually GMs aren’t associated with the day-to-day operation of the players and coaches, but why shouldn’t they be? Manny could add that much more to the M’s in a coach-GM capacity.
What about financial management? Does Manny really have the necessary prudence and know-how to effectively manage a 9-figure payroll? I don’t have all the answers, but I can tell you one thing: financially, Manny has done pretty damn well for himself. Recall that he signed an eight-year, 160 million dollar contract with the Red Sox in 2000, which was, at the time, the 2nd largest contract in MLB history (only A-Rod’s contract, signed 2 days earlier, was bigger). It was no small feat to get this deal from the Sox; Manny had to predict as early as 1993 that 2000 would be the best market for an inner circle hall of fame talent, and map out his career arc accordingly. Say what you will, but that kind of forecasting is simply unheard of. Hell, nobody saw our current economic crisis coming 2 months in advance. If I could go back in time, I know whom I’d install as secretary of the treasury.
-------
Often, hiring a good GM is the best move a baseball club can make. Think about the impacts Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, and Theo Epstein have had on their respective clubs in recent years. Can Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday or Dustin Pedroia come anywhere near the production of those guys? Unlikely. It is absolutely crucial for a baseball team to have smart and effective management, and the Mariners missed out on a golden opportunity this past winter. Oh well – only two more years until we may get to see what “Manny Being Manny” really means.
Disclaimer 2 - this piece was written before, um, certain events took place. Fortunately, these events only strengthen the article's main point!
-------
For the last few years, the Seattle Mariners were crippled, like many teams before them, by one bad contract. However, unlike the obscenely large contracts thrown at Mike Hampton and Barry Zito, to name a couple, this handicap wasn’t a result of the sheer dollars involved; rather, of the importance placed on the position filled by the contract, and the ineptitude of the jobholder. By now, you’ve likely realized I’m referring to former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi. Well, good news: this past off-season, the Mariners finally cut their losses by firing Bavasi and hiring former Brewers’ scout Jack Zduriencik.
Zduriencik made a number of notable moves over the winter, including a large three-way trade with the Indians and Mets. Big Z also reduced the Mariners’ payroll and didn’t sign any middling free agents to the kinds of crippling contracts Bavasi was known for. In addition, he finally signed the M’s first round pick from the June 2008 draft, Josh Fields.
We knew all along that Zduriencik would bring many of the positive skills that he developed with the Brewers, namely an eye for amateur talent and a focus on internal player development. It appears at first blush that he also possesses a knack for smart financial management.
However, I am here to tell you that the Mariners made the wrong choice. Despite all of Zduriencik’s strengths, there was a candidate out there who surpasses him in nearly every field in which a GM must be competent. A candidate who understands the fiscal intricacies of running a baseball team, who is a smart and cunning negotiator and dealmaker, who can strike a balance between traditional scouting and statistical analysis, and who is well versed in roster construction.
I am speaking, of course, of Manny Ramirez.
Now, this is not an indictment of Jack Zduriencik. Far from it – of what we’ve seen so far, Jack Z appears to be an excellent GM and Mariners fans should be excited about their favourite team’s future. Rather, this is an exploration of “what could have been”. What if the government did fake the moon landing? What if the Florida ballots weren’t shaped like butterflies – what would have been the no-butterfly effect? (Pun definitely intended.) What if the Mariners hired Manny Ramirez to be their general manager? These are the questions of our time.
-------
Consider the “Manny situation” this past off-season. I’m sure you know the story: Manny wanted a huge contract, the economy sucked, so he signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers. This was not an uncommon situation; many other free agents signed short-term deals in an attempt to re-enter the market in a year or two. Even though San Francisco made a bit of noise, there wasn’t much doubt Manny would end up with LA, even if it did take months for a signature to appear on a contract.
Now, it seems to me, in an economy as weak as this, one would be prudent to consider all their options. If you were looking to buy a house, would you limit yourself to only those houses designed by Frank Lloyd Wright? Of course not. And Manny Ramirez shouldn’t limit himself to being just a player.
Why not? Well, for one thing, while Manny ended up with a pretty luxurious contract in terms of annual value, it was length he was really after. General managers often receive longer contracts, since there isn’t much of an inherent injury risk that accompanies the job (though there have been rumours surfacing recently that Frank Wren will miss the next 12-16 months for Tommy John surgery). Second, think about Manny’s next contract – in addition to signing in a better economic climate than this past off-season, consider how much money Manny could get if he could offer the smarts and know-how to re-build a team from the ground up along with his hall of fame-level bat?
-----
By now I’ve likely convinced you that Manny overlooked one of his best options for employment this winter. The remaining question, however, is why teams looking for a GM should have considered the man behind the dreads. Does Manny really have all those traits a great GM needs? Does he have an impeccable eye for talent, a knack for responsible fiscal management, a general cunningness in the trade room? The answer is a resounding yes, and here’s why.
Manny learned from the best. To begin his career, he played for eight years under the esteemed John Hart in Cleveland, and then spent another seven and a half seasons learning from Theo Epstein and the Red Sox’ formidable front office. And there’s no doubt Manny was soaking it all in – you can take that to the bank. If there’s one trait Manny is known for, it’s his uncanny prescience. One look into his eyes and one is filled with an overwhelming sensation that Manny just knows – he is so aware, aware of everything that’s going on around him, like some sort of omnipotent being.
As for an eye for talent, well, who has a better eye for talent than one of the best right-handed hitters the game has ever seen? Manny’s impressive career totals place him 3rd among active players in OPS and RBIs and 6th in home runs, and these are just a few of his offensive accomplishments. If I know anything about teaching (and as a teacher, I like to think that I do), I know that those who possess a skill to a great degree are always the best candidates to pass on their wisdom to the next generation. Mike Tyson, Ludwig Van Beethoven, Hannibal Lecter, all virtuosos in their own right who were also capable of the patience and compassion necessary to pass on their gift.
Having established Manny’s prowess as a hitter, we now turn to defense. Much has been written over the last few years about the importance of defense, and John Dewan of Fielding Bible fame even proclaimed his discovery that defense is worth about half as much as offense as “the most significant discovery of [his] career”. Thus, it has become increasingly important for general managers to be well versed in defensive metrics and evaluation, and to carefully consider the balance between offense and defense when making personnel decisions. Who better to push defensive evaluation in new, revolutionary directions than an actual baseball player with a thorough understanding of the defensive intricacies of the game?
Now, much has been made about the Mariners’ potentially historically great outfield defense this year: Endy Chavez, Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez are all above average in center field, so imagine how many fly balls they’ll be able to track down in spacious SafeCo Field. However, consider how much better they could be if they had a former outfielder running the team. Usually GMs aren’t associated with the day-to-day operation of the players and coaches, but why shouldn’t they be? Manny could add that much more to the M’s in a coach-GM capacity.
What about financial management? Does Manny really have the necessary prudence and know-how to effectively manage a 9-figure payroll? I don’t have all the answers, but I can tell you one thing: financially, Manny has done pretty damn well for himself. Recall that he signed an eight-year, 160 million dollar contract with the Red Sox in 2000, which was, at the time, the 2nd largest contract in MLB history (only A-Rod’s contract, signed 2 days earlier, was bigger). It was no small feat to get this deal from the Sox; Manny had to predict as early as 1993 that 2000 would be the best market for an inner circle hall of fame talent, and map out his career arc accordingly. Say what you will, but that kind of forecasting is simply unheard of. Hell, nobody saw our current economic crisis coming 2 months in advance. If I could go back in time, I know whom I’d install as secretary of the treasury.
-------
Often, hiring a good GM is the best move a baseball club can make. Think about the impacts Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, and Theo Epstein have had on their respective clubs in recent years. Can Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday or Dustin Pedroia come anywhere near the production of those guys? Unlikely. It is absolutely crucial for a baseball team to have smart and effective management, and the Mariners missed out on a golden opportunity this past winter. Oh well – only two more years until we may get to see what “Manny Being Manny” really means.
