A college pitcher is probably the last thing the Jays need in the first round of the draft, but that seems to be where the value is this year.  I think bats, especially prep bats are the way to go at #20 in a normal year.

I'd like to see some HS pitching targetted in rounds 1supp through 3.

I have no problem with the Jays taking a college arm at #20 as long as it is an arm with big upside. James Paxton, a Canadian, and Andrew Oliver, are two arms that I both like, and just for JP they are both lefties. I'd like to see at least two high upside high school arms mixed into those five picks in the first three rounds. Some high school outfielders with power potential, and a power third base bat would be nice in the 5-10 rounds along with more high risk/ high reward pitching.

We have nice depth of pitching in the high minors, and lots of position players with upside but every few polished ones in the low minors. I don't care either way if JP takes high school or college arms, but he needs to be looking for guys with top three rotation spot potential. We have enough middle of the rotation and bullpen pitching, we need to start taking some chances and developing some studs

Just remember how fast the success rate goes down in the draft.

All time guys with 100+ home runs per pick (ie: 1st overall, 2nd overall, ...)

1: 15
2: 8
3: 8
4: 7 (just 1 over 200)
5: 4
6: 7 (includes Bonds, Shefffield)
7: 4 (just one over 200)
8: 5
9: 4
10: 10 (McGwire, none since 2000 have reached 25)
...
100: 1 (just 5 have hit a HR)
200: 1 (just 4 have hit a HR)
300: 0 (just 5 have made the majors, 1 with over 2 HR round 10 equivalent)
1000: 0 with just 2 reaching the majors, Tony Gwynn Jr and Carl Sadler (pitcher for 42 games)

Interesting.  Would prefer checking by round but don't see an easy way of doing that at baseball reference.

There were 42 pitchers taken among the 80 top ten picks between 1995 and 2002 in the June draft.  We should have a good idea as to whether these pitchers will ever amount to much by now.  Of the 42 pitchers I would say that 29 of them turned out to be marginal players or complete stiffs.  If you narrow it to 2000 to 2002 drafts, of the  20 pitchers taken top ten, 16 would be considered failures.  I always laugh when comments are made about taking these high upside pitchers later in the draft when the success rate amongst the high picks is so awful.  We should be counting our blessings when competent major league pitchers come out of the draft as the Jays have had.

Jay pitchers in the first round...
Halladay: 138 wins
Carpenter: 101 wins
Cerutti: 49 wins
Karsay: 32 wins 41 saves
Koch: 29 wins 163 saves
McGowan: 20 wins
6 others reached majors and had under 5 wins, 3 others never reached, plus Romero and Cecil.
So, the Jays have drafted 17 pitchers in the first round with 3 who are big successes (Halladay/Carpenter/Koch), 2 solid guys (Cerutti/Karsay) and 3 who are still active in the majors in McGowan/Romero/Cecil plus we have Trystan Magnuson and David Purcey who have shots still at being good (Zach Jackson has spent time in Clevelands pen this year).

For hitters we have the 1000 game club... (5)
Green, Moseby, Stewart, Wells, Sprague

The 500 game club... (3)
Felipe Lopez, Rios, Hill

The 100+ game club... (3)
Gross, Adams, Witt

The still potential club... (5)
Snider, Cooper, Aherns, JPA, Justin Jackson

And the 'dang' club... (14 members)
Joe Lawrence, Zosky, Stark, Augie Schmidt, etc.

So round 1 has been good for the Jays, but not great (the biggest weakness of Gillick in the 80's).

Round 2?
Derek Bell = only guy with 1000+ games played.  Craig Wilson the only other one over 500.  Tim Hyers & Ron Sheppard are the only other ones over 100.  14 never made it.
Pitchers?  David Wells (239 wins), David Bush (45 wins), Tim Crabtree (342 games in relief), Brandon League (116 games) then no one else with 7+ wins or 70 games in the majors (3 pitchers total).  4 pitchers never made it with none still kicking I suspect (most recent is from 1994).

Round 3?
A bit better for hitters.  John Olerud, Greg Myers both over 1000 games plus Chris Stynes over 500, Adam Lind & Felipe Crespo over 200, then 2 guys with a total of 16 ML games between them and 7 who never made it.
Pitchers?  Jimmy Key, David Weathers, Shaun Marcum, and 4 others who won 32 and had 0 saves between them.  12 who never pitched in the majors.

It is interesting to look at.  Also points out how hard it is to find a gem by the 3rd round but that it can be done (Olerud was a guy no one thought would sign).

Some quick notes from Friday's games:  Las Vegas won 8-1 behind a strong start from Fabio Castro who pitched eight innings of three hit ball.  He walked two and struck-out five and lowered his AAA ERA to 1.03.  Brett Harper, JP Arencibia, Buck Coats and Kyle Phillips each hit home runs.

New Hampshire won 6-2 as Marc Rzepczynski pitched 5.1 innings and gave up two runs, one earned.  Zep lowered his ERA to 2.93.

Dunedin lost game one of the doubleheader 3-2 as Tim Collins took the loss.  The FSL plays a concentrated schedule and this is the second appearance in a row against Tampa where Collins has allowed two runs.  It will be interesting to see what happens over the next month.  If Collins can't pitch well against Tampa it might suggest that Collins can be handled once teams figure him out.  I don't see it but it bears watching.  Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson had three hits each, a very encouraging sign.

Tampa won game two of the doubleheader 5-4 despite Dunedin outhitting Tampa 9-6.  Nate Starner gave up one hit through four innings but gave up four hits and a walk, and five runs in the fifth.  The last two runs scored on an error by Ahrens.  Jackson had two more hits, Ahrens one and Tolisano two. 

Lansing were rained out.