Waiver:  This statement is made with zero research to back it up.

The high amount of double plays doesn't worry me all that much, as I see it as a function of a good team OBP this year, in particular, the high walk rates for players like Scutaro.  In addition, the slow LHB like Overbay and Lind are going to be prone to double plays no matter what they do.

I guess my other comment would be, so what?  Is it worth worrying about something you can't change?  Gibbons seem to put on the hit-and-run a lot last year to avoid the double play and it didn't seem to help the team's offence overall.  Is there some way to tell players to stop doing it?  Tell them to make less contact?

Check out Hill's WPA. .300 is delivering a big game. Now think about this for a second http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=290502114

Well according to Jon Heyman from si.com, JP has finally revealed what he wants in return for Halladay. He said it would take a "boatload". I personally think Doc is worth a lot more than Sir Sidney Ponson.

In the same article, JP said Marcum could be back in August. Considering the source, that probably means August 2010.

Snyder looked very good in left in today's game. Several running catches and the catch he made near the 375 foot mark in left  was on a ball of a type that often doesn't get caught. And further on defence, Scutaro these past two games has cut across the diamond and thrown out a couple of batters from in front of Hill. First rate. And can somebody tell me, did Chavez throw out those first two basestealers or did the umpire get the call right? I couldn't see well from my seat on the first base side. I was impressed, though, by the speed of Chavez' release.

Finally, in my opinion, today's game was a really good game of baseball. Lots of situations, strategy, opportunity for second guessing, well played (except for the O's woeful bullpen). Something for everybody, no matter what  level of baseball knowledge they possess. I sat near someone from Europe who was watching his first game of baseball ever and even he was able to enjoy the competition. 

And it always helps when the Jays win, of course.

Interesting looking at the standings.  The Jays have a run differential of +35.  #2 in the AL is Boston at +19 while #3 is KC at +16.  In other words the Jays have as big a spread in runs scored vs allowed as the next two AL teams COMBINED.  Plus are on the longest active winning streak in the AL (OK, just 2 but still...

To have that run differential despite the recent implosion of the starting rotation is unreal. Yah some bats will cool, but some will also get hot and the pitching will at least get healthier. This team is pretty hard to judge right now.

More good news: Ricky Romero should be back in a couple weeks at most.  Bastian reports that Romero threw 40-45 pitches in a bullpen session on Saturday morning and felt good. He will throw another bullpen session on Monday and will likely be sent out on a Minor League rehab after that.  (My own guess: one or two rehab games should be enough, and then he'll be back.)

Meanwhile, Robert Ray pitched well enough to deserve another start.  That will be next Thursday in Los Angeles.  Not much discussion of Ray so far on this site (and I'd welcome some analysis from anyone who watched him closely on Saturday) but I think his debut was good enough to add him to the mix of potential pitchers in the starting rotation for the second half of this season (and 2010).  It's quite an amazing list:  Halladay, Romero, Richmond, Litsch, Janssen, Purcey, Cecil, Mills, Ray, Marcum, McGowan.   Choosing 5 good pitchers from that list shouldn't be hard.  And, dare I say it, the pitching depth could even offer some trade bait if the Jays need any help for a playoff run in August.  Although so many of those pitchers are so young that they still have options and can be stashed at Las Vegas for months at a time if the Jays prefer to keep them around, which might be the better strategy.

Am I the only one not encouraged by the Jays saying Marcum or McGowan may be back this year? Can we not maybe learn a lesson about rushing TJ or labrum pitchers back? This news irritates me to no end. I keep wanting to hear they are finally going to play it safe with a pitcher recovering from major surgery for once. How many arms need to go down before they do? Everyone?

Wow. Baltimore has already been swept by Toronto and Boston. Their season is looking down and out after just one month. It's disappointing seeing some teams drop out so quickly. I'm still glad for the sweep to give the Jays a little breathing space between them and the Sawks.

I'm curious what Tallet will come out with. He was left out there to take his lumps last game, and I wonder how he will come back from it. I can't wait for Cecil's start. I might try my best to watch it in the middle of the night- that's how excited I am. Last, I am really glad that Westcoast trip is real short at only 5 games. If things go wrong, the team won't lose a lot of momentum (I am sure many others here also dread the trips to the West.).

It's pretty simple. A-Rod reads his own catcher's signal and either signals pitch type or location (or both) to the hitter using some scheme that's similar to how a runner on second stealing signs would do it. A-Rod then hopes the opposing shortstop (or second baseman) would relay similar information to him.

It should be easy to look up old games and spot the at-bats provided the scheme actually worked.

Actually, I would think it will be very difficult to ever establish the truth of these claims, unless there are repeated testimonials from other players that they engaged in a quid-pro-quo with Rodriguez. However, such admissions would likely be as damaging to that player's reputation as A-Rod's would be, so I'm not sure we'll ever see them.

Interesting article today on MLB.com about the Jays bullpen and how heavily it has been utilized so far.  The Jays bullpen was used for 87.2 innings in the first 26 games of this season, which is second-highest in the AL (behind only Baltimore).  Bullpen usage by the Jays is almost 25 per cent ahead of last year's pace. 

Is this a potential issue?  With so many rookies in the rotation (and a converted reliever), the Jays will continue to depend heavily on their bullpen as the season wears on.  Could some relievers become over-used and wear down?   My own calculations suggest that Jesse Carlson at his current pace would pitch 88 innings this season, while Downs and League are on pace for 82 innings each.  Even in the minors, none of those three has ever pitched more than 70 innings as a reliever (and League a lot less), if you exclude their long-ago stints as starting pitchers.  Carlson is the one that I'd be most worried about.  Cito will have to watch very closely to avoid excessive use of these guys.  (And he promises to do so, according to the MLB.com article.)

One temporary solution is the arrival of Brian Wolfe and the imminent arrival of Accardo (who should be promoted very soon, I think).   The Jays are not using Murphy very much at all, which puts a heavier burden on Downs, Carlson and League.  If they're not going to use Murphy, send him down and replace him with Accardo.  Tallet's return to the bullpen would also be helpful in easing the burden on the others (although Tallet, too, could be over-used if you include his innings as a starter). 

Link to the MLB.com article:  http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090503&content_id=4548088&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

It should be easy to look up old games and spot the at-bats provided the scheme actually worked.

Actually, I would think it will be very difficult to ever establish the truth of these claims, unless there are repeated testimonials from other players that they engaged in a quid-pro-quo with Rodriguez. However, such admissions would likely be as damaging to that player's reputation as A-Rod's would be, so I'm not sure we'll ever see them.

Yeah, I don't expect the statistical case to be overwhelming. The accomplices would probably have to be in the same division and play in the infield.  Blowouts involving Texas in which A-Rod doesn't get a hit until the other team bring in their mop up pitcher should not surprise anyone. I don't think he ever needed help hitting poor pitching.

Let me tell you what Bedard's stat line says this year : 31ip 27h 6bb 32k 2hr.

I heard all these tired arguments about Burnett before he came here too. I don't care about any of it, only the results.

I live in Vancouver and so I get to see nearly all Mariners' games.  I would guess that I have seen 18 or 19 of Bedard's starts since he arrived in Seattle.  The bottom line results are good - no question - but there is something Leiteresque about him that has to make you think hard about whether you would pony up  significant propsects and $12m/ year (going considerably higher) to acquire him.  To wit:

- he throws so many pitches trying to strike people out that his pitch counts get high and early.  He's averaged just over 5 innings per start since arriving in Seattle.  This is not injury related.

- there's always something physically wrong with him, nearly every start comes with a question mark about whether he can go or not (listening to the M's broadcasters is comical on this topic).  This uncertainty is crippling for a pitching staff.

- this is more gut feeling (showing a negative bias I'm sure) than is probably true but somehow, someway the end results in terms of victories always seem less than what you would expect - whether due to a poorly timed walk, HB or wild pitch.

What he throws is almost unhittable and he will lead the league for starters in K/9, but the whole always seems less than the individual parts in my opinion.  That does not make him a bad pitcher, far from it, but be careful what you wish for.  If he's a jerk to boot (I have no clue one way or the other) well that's just one more reason to run not walk away.

he throws so many pitches trying to strike people out that his pitch counts get high and early. 

In his 2009 Gold Mine, Bill James reports on a study where he investigated whether strikeout pitchers do, in fact, throw more pitches. His conclusion: "So there is a pattern [between SO rate and pitches per inning]. But it's minimal."

In James' study, the high K pitchers averaged 16.3 pitches per inning. All pitchers (high K, medium K, low K) averaged 16.1. For his career, Bedard is averaging 17.2. (As an aside, Halladay is averaging 14.3, and that's from 2002 on, when he was good Roy -- the data is not available pre-2002 and probably shouldn't be considered in his case, even it were).

So it appears that Bedard, who averages just under 6 IP per start, is throwing about 6 more pitches per game (6 * (17.2-16.1)) than the average starter would. Looking at it that way, he is costing himself the ability to see one or two extra batters per outing.

But, if one takes the position that someone with Bedard's stuff should nibble less and trust his stuff more, a la Roy Halladay, then there's an argument that's he throwing about 18 more pitches (6 * (17.2-14.3)) than he should in a 6-inning span. This would be costing him about an inning per start, which of course is huge.

I have not seen Bedard pitch very often but I assume that I'd come away with the same feeling of frustration that Nigel reports, enduring a very good pitcher needlessly nibble. Juan Guzman and Kelvim Escobar were notorious in these parts for inciting the same exasperation.

Finally, back to James' 2009 Gold Mine. Like its predecessor, it's filled mainly with the odd semi-interesting factoid. But there are also a handful of essays, reminding us how Bill James can explore questions like no one else in his field, even 30 years after cobbling his early days, typewritten, photocopied, hand stapled Abstracts.

The book's best essay is an examination of hitter profiles in terms of their goundball/line drive/flyball ratios. It was a huge eye opener, and to Bill James himself when he crunched the numbers.

Can't see anybody ever being out of it in the AL West, until September 1.

The $300 clue: "Playing .500 ball."

"What is how the west was won, Alex?"

Why give up young players/prospects for Bedard when you can just go after Sheets (assuming he's healthy) as a free agent?

I think Sheets is a slam dunk to sign with Texas. They had a deal worked out already and practically half the name on the dotted line before finding out about the severity of the injury. That's right, the contract said "Ben Sh ... oh wait, he's hurt ..."

Was anyone listening to McCown? Did he say the 2001 Jays had no holes in their lineup? That team finished 16th overall in runs scored that season.

Nice job by the Jays to bounce back twice after blown leads late, but couldn't quite pull it out. Agreed on the pitch to Cabrera, catching the heart of the plate 0-2 is just irritating.

Must say though, Vernon Wells is very quickly becoming an atrocious center fielder. Thought that Martinez 'double' in the 9th was an easy fly ball. Sizemore catches that ball easily. Wells has been taking poor routes to alot of balls in center field this year, as well as just generally looking a lot slower. Few bounced off his glove that in past years would have been routine for him. I think it's time for him and Rios to switch positions.

Nice  quality start for Cecil in his ML debut. Hopefuly 3 runs is enough and the bullpen does a better job today.

6IP 6H 2R 1ER 0BB 6K

My amatuer observations on Cecil:

His slider was as advertised, was fooling a lot of hitters.

A couple of the HBP(Shoppach) were barely off the playe inside and just happened to hit shoppach's elbow pad which he had hanging over the plate.

Cecil got into a lot of deep counts early on, lots of 3-2 counts, but was better at working ahead as the game went on.

The defense let him down a couple times. Hill dropped an fairly simply pop that was ruled a hit, and there was a nice double play ball that was not turned.

The slider looked good though and as the game went on his fastball command seemed to get better.

Let's say Sheets is ready to pitch at the beginning of August and the Rangers are out of playoff contention

Fair disagreement, but two points ... one, my understanding is that the main reason Texas didn't sign him is that he almost certainly WON'T be ready until '10. Like you, I have had not luck in finding an update on that status. Two, and only a mildly less serious point, but nobody in the AL West is "out of playoff contention" until they are actually mathematically eliminated. The Rangers are actually over .500 right now, too! They may hang around until really late in the year, especially if the kid pitcher I mentioned yesterday, Derek Holland, steps up like he obviously is capable of doing.