The American League leading Toronto Blue Jays head to Minnesota to face the upstart Twins. Let's just hope the Jays aren't stuck for the next two months waiting for a recount. On to the first Advance Scout of the season!
As I'm sure you don't need to be told, the Jays come into this one with a 5-2 record, good for a first place tie in the AL (with the Mariners?!?) The Twins are 3-4, one game back of first in a tight Al Central. Of course, these standings mean next to nothing, but when was the last time the Jays were leading the league? In any event, the Twins team the Jays will face is remarkably similar to their last season iteration, a squad the Jays went 6-0 against. Denard Span is around for the whole year this time, Nick Punto slides over to short and Joe Crede is the big off-season acquisition at third. Delmon Young, he of the perpetual upside, is coming off the bench now, but other than that it's the same Twins, as all five starters also return (goodbye Livan Hernandez) and everyone's favourite closer, Joe Nathan, is still finishing games.
The Jays enter this one leading the Majors in scoring, at 6.6 runs a game. Meanwhile the Twins have been less successful - they've scored 26 runs in 7 games, 20 fewer than the Jays. The Jays have also outpitched the Twins slightly, giving up two fewer runs. The cumulative effect is that the Jays have outscored their opponents by 11 while the Twins have been outscored by the same margin - let's hope this means further success. This trip to Minnesota will also mark the last time the Jays ever compete in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (well, probably), as the Twins move into the brand new outdoor Target Field in 2010.
Lastly, if you really want to get a beat on these Twins, check out the always fantastic aarongleeman.com. Best Twins blog out there.
Tonight Jesse Litsch takes on Kevin Slowey. Litsch will try to rebound from a rough first outing against the Tigers, as is Slowey against the Mariners. The only difference is that Slowey picked up the win, and had good peripherals, striking out 5 and walking 0 in 6 innings. Slowey might be my favourite of hte Twins starters. His k/bb ratio last year was a Halladay-esque 5/1, and he managed to whiff 7.5 batters per 9 innings. The but is that Slowey is a massive fly ball pitcher: he had a .80/1 gb/fb ratio last year. The upshot of this is that he should be well served by the current arrangement in the Twins outfield, with Carlos Gomez and Denard Span covering 2/3 of the ground. As SI notes, Gomez may be the best defensive outfielder in the AL, and Span isn't half bad either. Slowey works off his low-90s fastball, and mixes in an equal number of sliders, curves and changes. No Jay has faced Slowey more than ten times, but Adam Lind is 3/5, and Snider is 3/3 with a homer. Rios, Millar and Wells have also homered.
Tomorrow Ricky Romero makes his second career start against Glenn Perkins, who is least accomplished of the Twins young starters. We all know about Romero's strong ML debut, but Perkins one-upped him, allowing one earned run in eight innings against the Mariners while taking the tough loss. Perkins is a fly ball pitcher, so he should also benefit from some improved outfield defense. Perkins' main problem is that he doesn't strike out anyone - fewer than 5 batters per 9 innngs in his career. He doesn't walk many either, at least. He throws his heater in the high-80s, as well as a changeup in the low-80s. It's too early to tell whether this is a trend, but it seems that Perkins has started throwing his slider more and his curve less - he only threw a couple of benders against the Mariners. No Jay has faced Perkins more than a handful of times, but Rios is 4/6.
On Wednesday B.C. native Scott Richmond makes his seventh career start against another Scott, Scott Baker. Richmond uncharacteristically walked two in four innings in his last start, the third and fourth walks in his career in 31 innings, against 24 strikeouts. Baker is a similar pitcher, a guy who strikes out a bunch and doesnt walk many - better than 3 to 1, a modern day Brad Radke. This will be Baker's first start of the year, as he started the season on the DL with shoulder stiffness. It didn't stop him from mowing down the Rays single-A affiliate, including a rehabbing B.J. Upton. Baker is one of the pitchers that the Twins will be relying on this year, along with Slowey and Liriano, to pitch them into the playoffs. Baker throws a fastball that reaches into the low 90s, a slider and a change, both in the low 80s, and the occasional curve. As with the Twins other starters, the Jays current Jays have only had a paltry 48 at bats against Baker. Aaron Hill has the best mark at 3/8, and Vernon has the only homer.
Thursday is a matchup of two frontline starters, Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano. Halladay's been Halladay so far, other than a bit of trouble in the seventh against Detroit. Liriano hasn't quite lived up to his end of the bargain yet this year though: he's been knocked around in both of his starts by the Mariners and the White Sox. Of concern for the Twins has to be that he's walked 4 while only striking out 6 in 11.2 innings. This comes on the heels of his 2008 season, where his walk-rate rose and his k-rate fell after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Liriano may never be the same pitcher as he was in 2006, but he wasn't bad at all last year, with a 3.79 FIP in 76 innings. After the All-Star break though Liriano was fantastic, posting a sub-3 era with good peripherals, so maybe this is just another slow start. Like every other Twins pitcher, Liriano is a fastball-slider-change guy, working in the 90-94 range with the fastball, the mid-80s with the slider and the low 80s with the change. He may never throw 98 again, but can be a very good pitcher in the majors. Remarkably, no current Jay has faced Liriano more than 3 times. Vernon Wells has the only hit off Liriano.
Elsewhere, Nick Punto is surprisingly the best hitting Twin so far, hitting .353. He's walked a bunch, but doesn't have any extra base hits.
Denard Span has cemented his grip on the leadoff spot with a strong first week, hitting .280/.419/.400, with 6 walks against 3 strikeouts. He also has one of the Twins 5 home runs.
Joe Mauer, the most important cog in the Twins offense, has started running again, and could be back in a couple of weeks.
Despite his fantastic defense, Carlos Gomez really can't hit. He had a sub-.300 OBP last year, and has only 3 hits in 22 at bats this year, with one walk against nine strikeouts.
The Twins pen figures to be a bit of a weak spot this year. Joe Nathan is the best closer in the majors, but after that things fall off. Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain are the late inning guys. Guerrier walks too many and strikes out too few, while Canadian Crain's ratios are better. He just gives up a lot of hits. Luis Ayala, Phil Humber, Craig Breslow, and Brian Duensing round out the pen. Breslow and Duensing are the lefties.
The Infirmary: As mentioned, Joe Mauer is out with a back injury and might be back by the end of the month. Boof Bonser is out for the year with a rotator cuff injury; I believe he needs TJ surgery. Speaking of TJ surgery, the unbelievably awesome Pat Neshek is out until next spring having had his surgery at the end of last year.
The 2009 Slogan: "This is Twins Territory." Grade: D. Very unimaginative and blase. They do have videos, albeit old ones, expounding on this theme, Then again, the Twins mascot is "TC Bear." People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, but man he is lame. Check out the link, seriously.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning.
As I'm sure you don't need to be told, the Jays come into this one with a 5-2 record, good for a first place tie in the AL (with the Mariners?!?) The Twins are 3-4, one game back of first in a tight Al Central. Of course, these standings mean next to nothing, but when was the last time the Jays were leading the league? In any event, the Twins team the Jays will face is remarkably similar to their last season iteration, a squad the Jays went 6-0 against. Denard Span is around for the whole year this time, Nick Punto slides over to short and Joe Crede is the big off-season acquisition at third. Delmon Young, he of the perpetual upside, is coming off the bench now, but other than that it's the same Twins, as all five starters also return (goodbye Livan Hernandez) and everyone's favourite closer, Joe Nathan, is still finishing games.
The Jays enter this one leading the Majors in scoring, at 6.6 runs a game. Meanwhile the Twins have been less successful - they've scored 26 runs in 7 games, 20 fewer than the Jays. The Jays have also outpitched the Twins slightly, giving up two fewer runs. The cumulative effect is that the Jays have outscored their opponents by 11 while the Twins have been outscored by the same margin - let's hope this means further success. This trip to Minnesota will also mark the last time the Jays ever compete in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (well, probably), as the Twins move into the brand new outdoor Target Field in 2010.
Lastly, if you really want to get a beat on these Twins, check out the always fantastic aarongleeman.com. Best Twins blog out there.
Tonight Jesse Litsch takes on Kevin Slowey. Litsch will try to rebound from a rough first outing against the Tigers, as is Slowey against the Mariners. The only difference is that Slowey picked up the win, and had good peripherals, striking out 5 and walking 0 in 6 innings. Slowey might be my favourite of hte Twins starters. His k/bb ratio last year was a Halladay-esque 5/1, and he managed to whiff 7.5 batters per 9 innings. The but is that Slowey is a massive fly ball pitcher: he had a .80/1 gb/fb ratio last year. The upshot of this is that he should be well served by the current arrangement in the Twins outfield, with Carlos Gomez and Denard Span covering 2/3 of the ground. As SI notes, Gomez may be the best defensive outfielder in the AL, and Span isn't half bad either. Slowey works off his low-90s fastball, and mixes in an equal number of sliders, curves and changes. No Jay has faced Slowey more than ten times, but Adam Lind is 3/5, and Snider is 3/3 with a homer. Rios, Millar and Wells have also homered.
Tomorrow Ricky Romero makes his second career start against Glenn Perkins, who is least accomplished of the Twins young starters. We all know about Romero's strong ML debut, but Perkins one-upped him, allowing one earned run in eight innings against the Mariners while taking the tough loss. Perkins is a fly ball pitcher, so he should also benefit from some improved outfield defense. Perkins' main problem is that he doesn't strike out anyone - fewer than 5 batters per 9 innngs in his career. He doesn't walk many either, at least. He throws his heater in the high-80s, as well as a changeup in the low-80s. It's too early to tell whether this is a trend, but it seems that Perkins has started throwing his slider more and his curve less - he only threw a couple of benders against the Mariners. No Jay has faced Perkins more than a handful of times, but Rios is 4/6.
On Wednesday B.C. native Scott Richmond makes his seventh career start against another Scott, Scott Baker. Richmond uncharacteristically walked two in four innings in his last start, the third and fourth walks in his career in 31 innings, against 24 strikeouts. Baker is a similar pitcher, a guy who strikes out a bunch and doesnt walk many - better than 3 to 1, a modern day Brad Radke. This will be Baker's first start of the year, as he started the season on the DL with shoulder stiffness. It didn't stop him from mowing down the Rays single-A affiliate, including a rehabbing B.J. Upton. Baker is one of the pitchers that the Twins will be relying on this year, along with Slowey and Liriano, to pitch them into the playoffs. Baker throws a fastball that reaches into the low 90s, a slider and a change, both in the low 80s, and the occasional curve. As with the Twins other starters, the Jays current Jays have only had a paltry 48 at bats against Baker. Aaron Hill has the best mark at 3/8, and Vernon has the only homer.
Thursday is a matchup of two frontline starters, Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano. Halladay's been Halladay so far, other than a bit of trouble in the seventh against Detroit. Liriano hasn't quite lived up to his end of the bargain yet this year though: he's been knocked around in both of his starts by the Mariners and the White Sox. Of concern for the Twins has to be that he's walked 4 while only striking out 6 in 11.2 innings. This comes on the heels of his 2008 season, where his walk-rate rose and his k-rate fell after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Liriano may never be the same pitcher as he was in 2006, but he wasn't bad at all last year, with a 3.79 FIP in 76 innings. After the All-Star break though Liriano was fantastic, posting a sub-3 era with good peripherals, so maybe this is just another slow start. Like every other Twins pitcher, Liriano is a fastball-slider-change guy, working in the 90-94 range with the fastball, the mid-80s with the slider and the low 80s with the change. He may never throw 98 again, but can be a very good pitcher in the majors. Remarkably, no current Jay has faced Liriano more than 3 times. Vernon Wells has the only hit off Liriano.
Elsewhere, Nick Punto is surprisingly the best hitting Twin so far, hitting .353. He's walked a bunch, but doesn't have any extra base hits.
Denard Span has cemented his grip on the leadoff spot with a strong first week, hitting .280/.419/.400, with 6 walks against 3 strikeouts. He also has one of the Twins 5 home runs.
Joe Mauer, the most important cog in the Twins offense, has started running again, and could be back in a couple of weeks.
Despite his fantastic defense, Carlos Gomez really can't hit. He had a sub-.300 OBP last year, and has only 3 hits in 22 at bats this year, with one walk against nine strikeouts.
The Twins pen figures to be a bit of a weak spot this year. Joe Nathan is the best closer in the majors, but after that things fall off. Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain are the late inning guys. Guerrier walks too many and strikes out too few, while Canadian Crain's ratios are better. He just gives up a lot of hits. Luis Ayala, Phil Humber, Craig Breslow, and Brian Duensing round out the pen. Breslow and Duensing are the lefties.
The Infirmary: As mentioned, Joe Mauer is out with a back injury and might be back by the end of the month. Boof Bonser is out for the year with a rotator cuff injury; I believe he needs TJ surgery. Speaking of TJ surgery, the unbelievably awesome Pat Neshek is out until next spring having had his surgery at the end of last year.
The 2009 Slogan: "This is Twins Territory." Grade: D. Very unimaginative and blase. They do have videos, albeit old ones, expounding on this theme, Then again, the Twins mascot is "TC Bear." People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, but man he is lame. Check out the link, seriously.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning.
