Wednesday is opening day for the minor leagues. Earlier this week we looked at the rosters, today Marc Hulet and I look at the key questions for each affiliate.
Las Vegas 51's
How will the marriage between the Blue Jays and Las Vegas go?
The marriage of the Jays and the 51's is like a teenage party when all the males and females hook-up until the last ugly guy and last unattractive girl are left looking at each other. Last fall all of the other major league and AAA teams linked up and the Jays and Las Vegas were left in an arranged marriage. The Jays had hoped to have their AAA team in Buffalo and Vegas were hoping for someone other than the Jays. Now they are unwillingly hooked up for at least two years. Winning cures a lot of ills and if the Jays can field a winner the affiliate will be happy and the Jays will become more desirable in the next affiliation shuffle in 2011.
With regard to winning most AAA players have major league experience and the team win/loss results can depend on which players have good years and who have bad ones. This years team looks to have a good hitting infield, an OK outfield, a good bullpen and uncertain catching and starting pitching. I say uncertain because the catching and the starting pitching will feature some the Jays prospects who are unproven at this level.
Who are the prospects on this team?
The prospects are JP Arencibia, Scott Campbell, Brad Mills and Brett Cecil. Davis Romero may join the team when he comes off the DL. otherwise the team is composed of the aforementioned former major leaguers and failed prospects.
How will Vegas impact the players?
The PCL in general adds .75 runs per game to the team. Las Vegas itself adds over 10% to runs, and just under 10% to hits, doubles and home runs. The hitters should be able to put up some good numbers in the PCL but it should raise the ERA's of the pitchers.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Brett Cecil, Brad Mills and Bill Murphy appear to be certain. The last two spots will be made up of some combination of Brian Burres, Bryan Bullington, Dirk Hayhurst and Wade Miller.
What can we expect from the prospects?
JP Arencibia will get tested yet again in AAA. Last season he didn;t show much interest in walking. AAA pitchers are usually a cagey bunch, guys with a lot of junk who can fool AAA hitters but not major league hitters. Arencibia will need to learn some plate discipline. On the plus side he could hit a lot of home runs in those PCL parks.
Scott Campbell is making the switch from second base to third. That change can sometimes hurt a players hitting if they think about it too much. Campbell saw some playing time with the Jays in the spring and that should help him in 2009. Campbell will see if he can add some power to his 2008 numbers.
Brett Cecil and Brad Mills were discussed a lot during the spring. Now that they are back in AAA they will try and get first in line for the next call-up.
Breakout Candidate: Scott Campbell
Heart-Breaker Candidate: Brad Mills
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Time has not been kind to the Fisher Cats organization. The club came into existence in 2004 as an affiliate of the Jays. That year the team went 84-57 and won the Eastern League championship title. Over the next four seasons, though, the club finished fifth, fourth, third and finally sixth in 2008 (with a record of 61-81).
Who are the prospects on the team?
The players to watch on the Fisher Cats this season include pitchers Luis Perez, Marc Rzepczynski, catcher Brian Jeroloman, infielders David Cooper, Brad Emaus, as well as outfielder Sean Shoffit. David Cooper was the club's 2008 first-round draft pick and he played at three levels last year, topping out in High-A. Emaus is an up-and-coming prospect who had a breakout 2008 season in Dunedin and also hit very well in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league. Shoffit is a converted infielder, who was rated the club's best defensive outfielder (by Baseball America) in the entire system after just one year at the position. Consistency at the plate has eluded him in previous years, but Shoffit has reworked his stance and received rave reviews in spring training.
Are there any sleepers?
Recently, Leon Boyd was signed off the Netherlands team that played in the World Baseball Classic. The Canadian reliever will get his first taste of North American professional baseball after playing overseas for the last few years. Both Nate Starner and Adrian Martin, who impressed in spring but has inconsisent fastball velocity, both deserve the sleeper tag, as does former Cubs prospect Brian Dopirak, who is in a make-or-break year. He hit 29 home runs last year and drove in more than 100 runs, but he has spent most of his seven seasons below Double-A and has never been able to solve it.
Are there any surprise additions?
Pitcher Fabio Castro is a former Rule 5 draft pick who has played at the Major League and Triple-A levels. Both Perez and Rzepczynski are southpaws who skipped over High-A Dunedin, after pitching in Lansing last season.Kyle Phillips, who resigned with the club in the off-season, will be playing in Double-A for the second straight season even after hitting .306/.370/.455 last year. Outfielder Nick Gorneault, a former Angels prospect, is back in Double-A after four straight seasons in Triple-A.
Who are the starters?
Reider Gonzalez, Perez, Rzepczynski, Castro and either Starner or Martin. The highest ceilings belong to Perez and Rzepczynski. Rommie Lewis could also see time in the rotation.
Breakout Candidate: Luis Perez
Heart-Breaker Candidate: Brian Dopirak
Dunedin Blue Jays
Who are the prospects on the team?
There are a lot of players to follow on the Dunedin team, Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, John Tolisano, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen, Eric Thames, and seven or eight pitchers. Pitchers to watch include Kyle Ginley, Andrew Liebel, Trystan Magnuson, Marcus Walden, Bobby Bell, Tim Collins, Alan Farina and Danny Farquhar.
Will the young guys learn pitch recognition?
Jackson, Ahrens and Tolisano played for Lansing last season and their major weakness was the level of strikeouts. 2009 is their second full season and one of the signs we would like to see is a reduction in the number of strikeouts. Each of these players hit in the mid 200's in 2008, it would be nice to see an offensive breakout in 2009 but remember these guys are in high A at age 20, that itself is good progress.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Kyle Ginley is back in Dunedin after some time in the Arizona fall league. The Jays hope Ginley learned to use all his pitches. Trystan Magnuson moves up to Dunedin after limited innings last year in Lansing. Magnuson was a four year college player so he needs to move up more this season. Brandon Magee moves down to A ball after a year in AA. Magee has had poor starts to the season in 2007 and 2008, 2009 needs to be different. Andrew Liebel was the top pitcher selected in the 2008 draft by the Jays. He was considered an advanced pitcher with good/average stuff but with an advanced feel for pitching. Liebel didn't pitch much for the Jays in 2008 due to injuries, this season will be our first extended look at him. The final spot goes to Marcus Walden who started for Auburn last season. Walden is the youngest pitcher of the starters, just 20 years old. Walden made 11 starts for Auburn with a 4.80 ERA.
Who plays in the outfield?
The Dunedin team could field an all-Canadian outfield with BC's Adam Loewen and Ontario's Chris Emanuele and Jon Baksh. However it is likely that a couple of the non-Canadians will get a lot of at-bats. The priority list for outfield at-bats is probably: Loewen, Thames, Sierra, Baksh, Emanuele, and Darin Mastroianni.
How good is that bullpen?
Alan Farina, Tim Collins and Danny Farquhar are all top 30 prospects. Bobby Bell was a 2008 draftee who was described as having the best change-up in the minors. Add Edgar Estanga, Ryan Page and Chad Beck and you have a strong pen.
Breakout Candidate: Moises Sierra
Heart-Breaker Candidate: Andrew Liebel
Lansing Lugnuts
Who are the prospects?
Pitchers Henderson Alvarez, Josh Wells, catchers Jon Talley, Antonio Jimenez, infielders Tyler Pastornicky, Balbino Fuenmayor, Michael McDade, outfielders Johermyn Chavez, Markus Brisker, and Kenny Wilson.
Are there any sleepers on the team?
Left-hander John Anderson, 20, has posted some good strikeout numbers and had a great spring. He was drafted out of junior college last season in the 28th round. Jonas Cuotto, 22, had a really nice North American debut in 2008. He allowed just seven walks in 51.2 rookie ball innings last year. Other sleepers include infielders Jonathan Del Campo, and Justin McClanahan (who has an interesting combination of speed and power), as well as outfielder Brian Van Kirk.
Are there any surprise additions?
Alvarez is only 18 years old (He'll be 19 in a week or so). Anderson won a spot with a strong spring. Southpaw reliever Frank Gailey returns to Lansing despite a 1.26 ERA in 20 games last season. His FIP, though, was a more-telling 2.70. Australian catcher Chris House is finally out of short-season ball despite hitting just .222/.325/.278 and appearing in only 28 games in Auburn last year. Teenagers and 2008 draftees Brisker and Wilson were expected to spend another year in short-season ball in 2009, but were promoted over older 2008 college draftees Brad McElroy and Chris Hopkins. A surprise ommission would be outfielder Eric Eiland beginning the year in extended spring training for the second straight season. He entered the spring with an outside shot of beginning the year in Dunedin with fellow 2007 prep picks Ahrens, Jackson and Tolisano.
Who are the starters?
The starting rotation should feature Alvarez, Wells, Anderson, Cuotto, and Charles Huggins. Hunter Moody could also figure into the equation.
Breakout Candidate: Jon Talley
Heart-Breaker Candidate: Kenny Wilson
