When you're in the Top 5 in team salary in Major League Baseball, the questions surrounding your team entering the season are often of lesser significance than most. Such is the case with the Boston Red Sox, one of the richest and most dominating clubs in the sport. The impressive thing about the Sox, though, is that it truly is a very well-run organization that makes smart decision both off and on the field. With that said, though, no team is without question marks. Let's have a look at the biggest mysteries surrounding the Sox as the club prepares to enter the 2009 season in search of another World Series title.
Will Jed Lowrie retain the starting shortstop job when Julio Lugo comes off the disabled list?
The incumbent shortstop was making things interesting early on in spring training by hitting more than .400, but the 24-year-old Lowrie will now take the position everyday until Lugo returns from minor knee surgery. He is aiming for a mid-April return, although that may be wishful thinking (and the Sox may be in no rush to get him back). Last season, Lugo hit .268/.355/.330 with just one home run and 12 stolen bases (261 at-bats). Lowrie, on the other hand, hit .258/.339/.400 with two homers in his first taste of MLB baseball (260 at-bats). Neither player is a great defensive shortstop. Once the veteran returns, he will likely be given the opportunity - at least early on - to prove that he should be playing everyday, with Lowrie going back to the super utility role, which will likely be held by Nick Green on opening day.
What will be Justin Masterson's role in 2009... and just how good can he be?
The starting rotation is expected to feature: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny. That leaves Masterson out in the cold, or more specifically in the bullpen. People don't really understand - yet - just how good Masterson is... and the move to bullpen will probably help make him even better. The right-hander doesn't strike out a ton of guys (6.93 K/9 in 88.1 IP in 2008) but his sinking fastball has been likened to a bowling ball. Opposing batters lifted balls-in-play into the air against Masterson just 27.3% of the time last year (Halladay was 26.9% with a 7.54 K/9). In the bullpen, Masterson will be able to focus on throwing that sinking fastball while also mixing in his solid slider. By the end of the year... he'll be the eighth inning guy.
Can Jacoby Ellsbury build on the second half of his 2008 season?
With Dustin Pedroia having taken his game to the next level (and stratosphere), it is now Ellsbury's turn. He hit .272/.343/.378 with 35 stolen bases in the first half of the 2008 season and then .290/.325/.416 with 15 steals in the second portion. It's not a huge difference, but the outfielder got on base and used his speed pre-All-Star break and then hit for a better average and with more power in the latter half of the season. Ellsbury had a really nice last month: .340/.367/.521. He needs to put it all together now: .285/.340/.400 with 60 steals would be nice (and reasonable). So far this spring, he's hitting just .255 with one steal.
Can Boston hold off the Tampa Bay Rays and the resurgent New York Yankees?
Tampa Bay had a really good year in 2008, but the club might also be one of the most overrated teams in baseball. The club relies heavily on young everyday players and starting pitchers, both of which are notoriously inconsistent. The bullpen depth is worrisome (unless Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen discover the Fountain of Youth). Don't get me wrong, the club is good but it's not ready to be up there with the Yankees and Red Sox year-after-year. The Yankees organization made a lot of moves in the off-season, bringing in big-ticket items like C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, but clubs that make a lot of changes in the off-season tend to get off to slow starts as the team learns to play... well, as a team. The A-Rod injury and off-season fiasco will not help either. Boston needs to take the opportunity to jump out ahead of Tampa Bay and New York early on in 2009 - if the opportunity presents itself.
How much of an impact will Brad Penny and John Smoltz have on the club in 2009?
Penny is expected - fingers crossed - to be ready by the time the Sox need a fifth starter by mid-April. His spring numbers, in two starts, have been encouraging: Four hits and one walk in seven innings of work (but just three strikeouts). If he can stay healthy for the first half of the season, at the very least, then the club can look to... Smoltz, 41, who could be a difference-maker in the second half if he returns to form after shoulder surgery. He's been impressing the coaches in spring training. The club also has young arms in Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz, both of whom would probably be opening 2009 in the starting rotation for almost any other club in Major League Baseball.
Will Jason Varitek be able to justify his new contract?
The Red Sox organization has the money to burn, so it can afford to pay Varitek for his leadership skills, even if the defensive skills are eroding and the offensive skills are gone. And $5 million is not really that bad, although it's more like $8 million given that Varitek has a player option for 2010 at $3 million, while the club has a $5 million option. The problem, though, is that the Sox lineup is getting older (Lowell, Ortiz, Drew) and cannot afford to carry his stick once his on-the-field skills dwindle beyond their current levels. Last season, the team's captain hit .220/.313/.359. There is no obvious successor in the system. Varitek's contract will probably not hurt the club in 2009 as his field and leadership skills are likely worth that much... for one more season.
When will top prospect Lars Anderson force his way into the big league picture, and how will it impact the big-league club?
Anderson had a very nice 2008 season, while splitting the year between High-A ball and Double-A. His numbers at the lower level were skewed a bit by playing in one of the best hitting environments in minor league baseball. As a result, it's probably better to look at his Double-A numbers, which included a line of .316/.436/.526 with five homers in 133 at-bats. Anderson will probably be a typical first baseman in that he'll strikeout a lot. The 21-year-old currently has just average power for his position, but he's still young and learning. He is a plus defender with a strong arm. Kevin Youkilis currently mans first base for Boston, but both David Ortiz and Mike Lowell will see their contracts expire after the 2010 season... and Anderson should definitely be ready to play everyday by then. Boston will have the opportunity to relocate Youkilis (the inferior fielder) to either third base (again) or designated hitter.
Is David Ortiz slipping?
You cannot judge Ortiz on numbers alone from 2008, which included his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since 2001, as well as his lowest slugging percentage since 2002. The slugger had a wrist injury, which definitely affected his numbers. Scouts, though, also noticed a decrease in his bat speed last year... and Ortiz also changed his approach at the plate. Only 33, though, the left-handed hitter could rebound. So far this spring, he's hitting .294 with three homers. Ortiz probably won't hit 40 or 50 homers again but he'll probably find a way to drive in 100 runs, if healthy. It might be time to hang things up, though, when his contract runs out at the end of 2010. If he gets hurt this season, Chris Carter (a personal favorite of mine for many years) deserves an everyday opportunity, after making the club as a bench player.
Can J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell stay healthy? If not, who is going to back them up?
Drew has, of course, already had an injury scare this spring after getting hit on the right hand/wrist and missing time, but he's played in 13 spring games. He's hitting just .242 with one extra base hit. Remind me again why Boston signed him to a five-year contract through 2011? Rocco Baldelli, who also knows a thing or two about the DL, is the main back-up. Lowell, who had surgery last season for a similar injury that took out A-Rod) has appeared in just 12 spring games. He hasn't been hurt this spring; Boston is just being cautious with him. Early on this season, Nick Green will be the back-up infielder and that is not a good thing. The top third-base prospects (Michael Almanzar and Will Middlebrooks) are just moving out of rookie ball.
How deep is the Boston bullpen?
Jonathan Papelbon is one of the Top 3 closers in the American League, if not the Majors. Ramon Ramirez (acquired in the off-season from KC) and Manny Delcarmen are good arms, but they're largely unproven as eighth-inning, go-to guys. Justin Masterson, as mentioned above, could be a lights-out eighth inning guy by the end of the year - or a solid long reliever, if needed earlier in the season. Takashi Saito has had a nice spring after being let go by the Dodgers. He's an injury risk, though, and 39 years old. That said, he's saved 81 games over the last three seasons. The left-handers will likely be Javier Lopez (.182 vs left-handed batters in 2008) and Hideki Okajima (.181) . The seventh guy is still undecided, but it could be Devern Hansack. Yeah, the bullpen should be pretty good... It's the best in the AL East. And there is some guy named Daniel Bard knocking on the door.
Well... there you have it. The Boston Red Sox version 2009. The club has talent, veteran leadership and they're proven winners with great management. It sounds like a recipe for success to me... and possibly a 100-win season. That's go conservative, though, and say 94-68 with a first-place finish... followed by the Yankees, then Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore. The club finished 95-67 in 2008 and won the wild card, behind the surprising Tampa Bay Rays.
Will Jed Lowrie retain the starting shortstop job when Julio Lugo comes off the disabled list?
The incumbent shortstop was making things interesting early on in spring training by hitting more than .400, but the 24-year-old Lowrie will now take the position everyday until Lugo returns from minor knee surgery. He is aiming for a mid-April return, although that may be wishful thinking (and the Sox may be in no rush to get him back). Last season, Lugo hit .268/.355/.330 with just one home run and 12 stolen bases (261 at-bats). Lowrie, on the other hand, hit .258/.339/.400 with two homers in his first taste of MLB baseball (260 at-bats). Neither player is a great defensive shortstop. Once the veteran returns, he will likely be given the opportunity - at least early on - to prove that he should be playing everyday, with Lowrie going back to the super utility role, which will likely be held by Nick Green on opening day.
What will be Justin Masterson's role in 2009... and just how good can he be?
The starting rotation is expected to feature: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny. That leaves Masterson out in the cold, or more specifically in the bullpen. People don't really understand - yet - just how good Masterson is... and the move to bullpen will probably help make him even better. The right-hander doesn't strike out a ton of guys (6.93 K/9 in 88.1 IP in 2008) but his sinking fastball has been likened to a bowling ball. Opposing batters lifted balls-in-play into the air against Masterson just 27.3% of the time last year (Halladay was 26.9% with a 7.54 K/9). In the bullpen, Masterson will be able to focus on throwing that sinking fastball while also mixing in his solid slider. By the end of the year... he'll be the eighth inning guy.
Can Jacoby Ellsbury build on the second half of his 2008 season?
With Dustin Pedroia having taken his game to the next level (and stratosphere), it is now Ellsbury's turn. He hit .272/.343/.378 with 35 stolen bases in the first half of the 2008 season and then .290/.325/.416 with 15 steals in the second portion. It's not a huge difference, but the outfielder got on base and used his speed pre-All-Star break and then hit for a better average and with more power in the latter half of the season. Ellsbury had a really nice last month: .340/.367/.521. He needs to put it all together now: .285/.340/.400 with 60 steals would be nice (and reasonable). So far this spring, he's hitting just .255 with one steal.
Can Boston hold off the Tampa Bay Rays and the resurgent New York Yankees?
Tampa Bay had a really good year in 2008, but the club might also be one of the most overrated teams in baseball. The club relies heavily on young everyday players and starting pitchers, both of which are notoriously inconsistent. The bullpen depth is worrisome (unless Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen discover the Fountain of Youth). Don't get me wrong, the club is good but it's not ready to be up there with the Yankees and Red Sox year-after-year. The Yankees organization made a lot of moves in the off-season, bringing in big-ticket items like C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, but clubs that make a lot of changes in the off-season tend to get off to slow starts as the team learns to play... well, as a team. The A-Rod injury and off-season fiasco will not help either. Boston needs to take the opportunity to jump out ahead of Tampa Bay and New York early on in 2009 - if the opportunity presents itself.
How much of an impact will Brad Penny and John Smoltz have on the club in 2009?
Penny is expected - fingers crossed - to be ready by the time the Sox need a fifth starter by mid-April. His spring numbers, in two starts, have been encouraging: Four hits and one walk in seven innings of work (but just three strikeouts). If he can stay healthy for the first half of the season, at the very least, then the club can look to... Smoltz, 41, who could be a difference-maker in the second half if he returns to form after shoulder surgery. He's been impressing the coaches in spring training. The club also has young arms in Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz, both of whom would probably be opening 2009 in the starting rotation for almost any other club in Major League Baseball.
Will Jason Varitek be able to justify his new contract?
The Red Sox organization has the money to burn, so it can afford to pay Varitek for his leadership skills, even if the defensive skills are eroding and the offensive skills are gone. And $5 million is not really that bad, although it's more like $8 million given that Varitek has a player option for 2010 at $3 million, while the club has a $5 million option. The problem, though, is that the Sox lineup is getting older (Lowell, Ortiz, Drew) and cannot afford to carry his stick once his on-the-field skills dwindle beyond their current levels. Last season, the team's captain hit .220/.313/.359. There is no obvious successor in the system. Varitek's contract will probably not hurt the club in 2009 as his field and leadership skills are likely worth that much... for one more season.
When will top prospect Lars Anderson force his way into the big league picture, and how will it impact the big-league club?
Anderson had a very nice 2008 season, while splitting the year between High-A ball and Double-A. His numbers at the lower level were skewed a bit by playing in one of the best hitting environments in minor league baseball. As a result, it's probably better to look at his Double-A numbers, which included a line of .316/.436/.526 with five homers in 133 at-bats. Anderson will probably be a typical first baseman in that he'll strikeout a lot. The 21-year-old currently has just average power for his position, but he's still young and learning. He is a plus defender with a strong arm. Kevin Youkilis currently mans first base for Boston, but both David Ortiz and Mike Lowell will see their contracts expire after the 2010 season... and Anderson should definitely be ready to play everyday by then. Boston will have the opportunity to relocate Youkilis (the inferior fielder) to either third base (again) or designated hitter.
Is David Ortiz slipping?
You cannot judge Ortiz on numbers alone from 2008, which included his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since 2001, as well as his lowest slugging percentage since 2002. The slugger had a wrist injury, which definitely affected his numbers. Scouts, though, also noticed a decrease in his bat speed last year... and Ortiz also changed his approach at the plate. Only 33, though, the left-handed hitter could rebound. So far this spring, he's hitting .294 with three homers. Ortiz probably won't hit 40 or 50 homers again but he'll probably find a way to drive in 100 runs, if healthy. It might be time to hang things up, though, when his contract runs out at the end of 2010. If he gets hurt this season, Chris Carter (a personal favorite of mine for many years) deserves an everyday opportunity, after making the club as a bench player.
Can J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell stay healthy? If not, who is going to back them up?
Drew has, of course, already had an injury scare this spring after getting hit on the right hand/wrist and missing time, but he's played in 13 spring games. He's hitting just .242 with one extra base hit. Remind me again why Boston signed him to a five-year contract through 2011? Rocco Baldelli, who also knows a thing or two about the DL, is the main back-up. Lowell, who had surgery last season for a similar injury that took out A-Rod) has appeared in just 12 spring games. He hasn't been hurt this spring; Boston is just being cautious with him. Early on this season, Nick Green will be the back-up infielder and that is not a good thing. The top third-base prospects (Michael Almanzar and Will Middlebrooks) are just moving out of rookie ball.
How deep is the Boston bullpen?
Jonathan Papelbon is one of the Top 3 closers in the American League, if not the Majors. Ramon Ramirez (acquired in the off-season from KC) and Manny Delcarmen are good arms, but they're largely unproven as eighth-inning, go-to guys. Justin Masterson, as mentioned above, could be a lights-out eighth inning guy by the end of the year - or a solid long reliever, if needed earlier in the season. Takashi Saito has had a nice spring after being let go by the Dodgers. He's an injury risk, though, and 39 years old. That said, he's saved 81 games over the last three seasons. The left-handers will likely be Javier Lopez (.182 vs left-handed batters in 2008) and Hideki Okajima (.181) . The seventh guy is still undecided, but it could be Devern Hansack. Yeah, the bullpen should be pretty good... It's the best in the AL East. And there is some guy named Daniel Bard knocking on the door.
Well... there you have it. The Boston Red Sox version 2009. The club has talent, veteran leadership and they're proven winners with great management. It sounds like a recipe for success to me... and possibly a 100-win season. That's go conservative, though, and say 94-68 with a first-place finish... followed by the Yankees, then Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore. The club finished 95-67 in 2008 and won the wild card, behind the surprising Tampa Bay Rays.
