Obviously you don't want to be bringing Marcum back in 2009 for no reason, but if there is one, he might have a better chance at success than the typical returnee from TJ. Marcum has never relied on his velocity to be effective - he's a pitcher, not a thrower.

I don't think he has a better chance than anyone else considering he's a control pitcher not a power pitcher.  Control is what pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery have the most problems with and he's never had the velocity to throw pitches past guys.

That being said - think how much better he would be if he does pick up a couple extra MPH when he's cleared to pitch again?  Going from 88-89 to 90-91mph with a Plus plus changeup and we've almost got ourselves Johan Santana!

You lose control too? I thought it was velocity! And ever since he started the whole Doc approach with cutters and 2-seamers, he hasn't been throwing 88-89. His fastball has been more like 86-87.

Pretty sure you (eventually) gain velocity, and its the control that is the problem post TJ.  Thats why I'd rather Dustin have had the TJ than Marcum...

Glad to see Romero get a shot. At least we can finally answer the question of whether or not he's going to be a contributor to this team.  I'll reserve judgement on him until at least August though.  Plenty of guys have success the first time they see a lineup.

Dustin already had TJ in May 2004.

There have been quite a few relievers with power stuff who have succeeded over the long haul post-TJ. The closest thing to a power starter would be John Smoltz, but he spent quite a few years in the pen after.  On the other hand, Tommy John and David Wells did succeed with the soft stuff out of the rotation for many years post-TJ.  I still believe that Marcum can follow in the footsteps if these guys.

Romero seems like a guy that's easy to root for.

With Wells being a risk for an injury seemingly all the time (hamstring, and now wrist again) I thought it was a little interesting that the Jays sent Lane down and seemingly are keeping just 4 OFs, with one of them likely to be DHing most of the time.  I would think he'd be more valuable than Millar, whose only position is backup 1B and DH.

It'll be interesting to see if the Jays make a trade involving a reliever before the season starts (like Blair promised us!) and/or if there's a reliever that comes up with a surprising 'injury'.

"I thought it was a little interesting that the Jays sent Lane down and seemingly are keeping just 4 OFs"

How do you figure? Bautista and Millar can both cover OF spots, as can Scutaro with JMac at SS.

It would have been nice if the Jays had a surplus of relievers, allowing them to utilize one or two of the relievers as a bargaining chip, as Blair had predicted.  But that surplus is vanishing fast.  Brian Wolfe has been sent to the minors, following his earlier injury.  Casey Janssen is not a bullpen option until May at the earliest, due to his injury.  BJ Ryan got dinged again today for two hits and an earned run in one inning in the Yankees game, and his lost velocity has already sparked speculation that he'll be put on the DL at the start of the season so that he can recover his normal velocity in extended spring training (as was done with Brandon League last season).  This would leave only 7 available pitchers for the bullpen:  Downs, League, Tallet, Carlson, Camp, Frasor, Accardo.   Of those seven pitchers, there are question marks about several of them -- Accardo has looked less than effective in the pre-season, Downs is recovering from injury, etc.   (Scott Richmond could conceivably be added to the bullpen too, as a long reliever, but he is -- to say the least -- unproven as a major-league reliever.)   All of this is just to say:  there ain't any bullpen surplus any more.  Ricciardi knows that he doesn't have bargaining chips any more -- he needs all hands on deck.

How do you figure? Bautista and Millar can both cover OF spots, as can Scutaro with JMac at SS.

I'm not looking for an emergency OF.  That trio combined for 3 appearances in the OF last year (all Scuturo).

Didn't Ricciardi sign half the left-handed relief arms in the developed world this off-season?    What was up with that, anyways?

It is nice to enter a season with no expectations.  That way if things go really well, you can savour it. 

Chavez is clearly a better defensive catcher than Barrett, but there have been questions about his bat - he has never had a decent OBP in the majors. On the other hand, Barrett hasn't set spring training on fire with his bat or anything, and his 2007-2008 hitting numbers haven't exactly been inspiring. I'm not exactly sure why he's still seen as having a lot of upside - he's doing what you'd expect a catcher his age to do, in terms of offensive regression, and his defense has always been major league marginal, even in his prime.

Meanwhile, Chavez is hitting very well, addressing his perceived weak point in an admittedly unrepresentative sample. If this was a real competition, I'd be inclined to give it to Chavez as a superior defensive substitute, who's about to work with a lot kids, and who has stepped up in spring training. If he plays himself out of the opportunity, other options exist.

If they give the job to Barrett, on the other hand, that says to me that there never was a competition, and their minds were made up from day 1.

Who thinks this was the right choice? The wrong choice? And why?

I was really sad to see Wolfe and Lane sent to the minors.
I think that Lane is much more useful that old Millar... c'mon first-base can't be all that hard to teach... Carlos Delgado is a case in point.
I can't believe that Shawn Camp is better than Wolfe!

However, I am very pleased that Romero made the club! Now, there was a surprise, no one on this site predicted this a month ago!
April is going to be tons of fun to watch the Jays because we get a real look at our younguns Snider, Purcey, Lind and Romero.
For that reason, I'm hoping that Mills makes the club too... although I can understand why Ricciardi would want Richmond to be a stopgap until Cecil arrives mid-season. It's easier to demote a minor league vet than to potentially damage a high ceiling prospect psychologically.

Can't wait until Sunday!

just wanted to put this out there...

Wily Mo Pena a.k.a "The Next David Ortiz" was placed on waivers by the Nats.
He's got a $2 mil contract... He's only 27, he hit 26 homers at the tender age of 22 in just 336 at-bats. I say we should replace Millar with him on the roster. I think it's a good $2mil gamble.

It's not quite true that nobody on this site predicted Romero winning a spot in the starting rotation.   One person -- Gerry -- did make the correct prediction on Feb. 24 in his preview of the starting pitchers.  Here's what he wrote:  "That leaves the fifth spot to Ricky romero or Brett cecil.  This job will go to the guy who pitches well in the first three weeks of spring training.  If it is tied Cecil doesn't have as much experience as romero and JP has more invested in Ricky so if it is a tie I think Ricky will get the chance."   So kudos to Gerry for his accurate prediction.

There were only two small errors in his analysis.  It ended up being Mills and Richmond, rather than Cecil and Richmond, who were fighting with Romero for a spot in the rotation.  And Romero did not pitch well in the first three weeks of spring training -- he pitched well in the last couple weeks instead.  But overall, not a bad crystal ball, Gerry.

 

It's interesting that Cecil - arguably the best of the Young Guns was the first sent down. I expect, a) It's because he's just 22 and b) he has a bit of work to do on giving away two of his pitches by the way he "shows" his hand.

Purcey is a "stuff" guy as is Cecil. What little I've seen of Mills screams Jimmy Key or Ted Lilly - definitely not chopped liver. Romero has always had four "good" pitches, not much of a "get 'em out" pitch, and not so much control and command - a late bloomer? Just might be - Arnsberg has apparently - "tweaked" something in his throwing mechanics. 

Litsch, Purcey, Cecil, Mills, Romero all more or less ready when we need them. Three of these guys HAVE to be ready for Prime Time NOW for us to have a winning season (82+ wins). We're still the underdog - no question - but...but...maybe...

The real concern now is Wells - wrist injuries are bit*hes to heal - especially when - like his - it is still a problem a year later. I have a feeling that Wells contract is going to be the one that keeps us on the outside looking in. I predict his contract will lead to Halladay being traded to save money AND to bring in a REAL SIGNIFICANT bopper.

Hey, why not. The Jays should have an easier time sounding convincing when they tell him to throw strikes, given that he's pitching in neutral Toronto not Las Vegas. And in front of the Jays' defense, which should be good again. And for a team that few expect to seriously contend. Go get 'em Ricky. We're all on your side.

(I still would've liked to see the other Romero get a shot, but if there can only be one Wandy Rodriguez at a time, I am at peace with that. Only in light of the Jays' pitching depth, though.)

Romero is apparently #24. People who bought powder blue Matt Stairs jerseys last year are now going to be perceived as diehard Ricky Romero fans, and, by extension, militant JP loyalists. Suckers. Maybe that's why Yankees fans get names on the back of their Jeter jerseys, so there can be no doubt who their true hero is lest his jersey number fall into the possession of Willie Bloomquist.

On the other hand, Tommy John and David Wells did succeed with the soft stuff out of the rotation for many years post-TJ.

That covers David Wells' entire career, and while we may remember the Boomer for his outstanding control (on the mound anyway), he threw pretty hard when he was a young fellow and always did have a pretty decent heater.

Thanks China Fan, good catch.

I still think that the club would be best served by using Scott Richmond in the fifth spot.  Brad Mills is a talented and smart player but he needs some more experience with top level hitters and he needs to learn how to miss more bats.  If the team is really thinking about 2010 they should send Mills down.

My scouting report on Ricky Romero is from 2007 but I remember a scouts comments to me "he has the weapons now let's see if he can use them".  Ricky has big league pitches, he needs consistency with them, somewhat like Purcey when he first came up.  Ricky will probably have his ups and downs and might have to go back to AAA for a while but hopefully it is just part of the learning curve.

"I'm not looking for an emergency OF. That trio combined for 3 appearances in the OF last year (all Scuturo)."

Isn't that what your 5th OF is, an emergency OF? You're basically saying 2 of Lind/Snider/Wells/Rios have to be injured, but not for long enough that they require DL stints. I see Bautista/Scutaro as ample coverage for such a scenario. I'd much rather Millar's bat on the bench than Lane's (rate stats be damned Millar did go 20-72 last year), but I'm sure we'll see Lane/Inglett make their way back up over the season.

Wilner described Cecil's demotion has having as much to do with inning management as anything else - it's easier to take a successful starter out after 5 innings regardless in the minors than in the majors.

Cecil is also reworking his delivery somewhat to better hide the ball in his setup.  That work is best handled in the minors.

IMO, this is a big step up for Ricciardi (as long as he doesn't jerk around the kids). He would never have trusted this much youth in the rotation past years. It also helps that the Jays aren't playing the tough AL East teams until later,so it makes sense to have the kids up right now rather than later (unless they are working on something in their mechanics).

BTW, another projection system has the Jays at -50 for their run differential. I just can't see a team that was +100 drop 150 runs in differential.

I can.  Delete Burnett, McGowan and Marcum from the rotation, add in 3 unproven guys, make no improvements to the lineup...voila!  -150 runs!

That's the pessimism in me coming out.  I actually agree with you - I don't think they will drop that far, but they will drop, and I don't think it's an unrealistic projection, at all.  I would not at all be surprised if that happened.

Isn't that what your 5th OF is, an emergency OF? You're basically saying 2 of Lind/Snider/Wells/Rios have to be injured

On most days you’re going to have Wells, Rios, Lind and Snider playing the OF and DH.   

If there’s an injury in a game, you’re going to have to play your emergency OF or lose the DH (moving the DH to the field).

You can’t pinch hit for the LH OF that plays (Lind or Snider) if they face a lefty late in a game unless you put the emergency OF in the game (and presumably if you’re pinch hitting the game is close where you wouldn’t want an emergency OF in the field).

If you want to give an OF a day off you’re going to have a bad DH unless you’re playing a team starting a LHP (which isn’t solved by Lane being on the team).

I think the bottom line for me is, is that if you're going to use an OF almost exclusively at DH (which the Jays should) you don't have any backup OFs available.  Another OF to me is more valuable in the flexibility it allows you than a 7th infielder, when one of them is tied to 1B only.

Of course, after I write all that I realize Inglett could (and should) be that guy.... I'm not sure why I forgot about him.

Burnett, McGowan and Marcum only pitched about 480 innings with an era just over 4.00.  The replacements would have to pitch at about a 7.00 era level to be 150 runs off, which could happen but given our defense I don't see it. 

This team has alot of upside.  Really.  Start with Purcey, and Romero, these guys are first round talents who are showing tantalizing signs of putting it together.   Is it that hard to see Jesse Litsch putting together a season that looks like one of Halladay's merely good (2006/2007) ones??  What if Scott Rolen and Aaron Hill are healthy and playing well??  Lind and Snider obviously have tremendous upside (compared to last year, Thomas and Stairs, 40 year olds with mainly downside).  And all Halladay has to do is stay healthy and pitch like he can.

And Wells and Rios.  I compare them to two other talented but imperfect outfielders.  What if Cito can pull off the same magic he did with Carter and Devon White many years ago??   White and Carter both came into Toronto with sub-300 obp's, really both in career crisis (we forget now in retrospect).  Cito just let them play and got the most out of them despite the warts...  Wells and Rios are about the same age and have a better starting point.

I have no idea what to expect from this team.  When I say upside...  well don't get me wrong I see scenarios where they could implode. 

 

 

What Pistol said.  The decision to have Millar instead of Inglett on the bench was strange.  Inglett really ought to be getting 300-400 PAs backing up Hill, Rolen and the corner OFs.

The power myth lives, I guess.

W/R/T how will this team do or where will they finish?  I heard once (either here or by a writer) that the Jays are for the most part guarenteed out of the gate to be 10 games OVER 0.500 before you get to starters 2 thru 5 [THANK YOU Mr. Halladay!!]

So the real question heading into `09 is:  Is the relatively inexperienced 4 starters and the basically untouched lineup enough to perform at the additional 10 games over 0.500 clip that's needed?  Not to mention that we have to hope that the bullpen performance equals their performance of the past 2 seasons!

Fingers crossed...

JP loves his OBP guys, and Millar sure can draw a walk.

I don't get it either.  Maybe Jays brass doesn't have a lot of a faith in Snider's immediate success and figure they'll need a DH when Snider is sent down and Lind has to move back to LF?

Well, a potentially more offensive (in all respects) option just showed up.

Gary Sheffield released by Tigers. He only had a 90 OPS+ last year, 141 lifetime but hasn't done that since 2004. He did hit 265/378/462 in 2007 but is now viewed as a DH only. Batting right handed he'd be a compliment to Snider/Lind/Overbay but would he accept that role? Would JP want another guy on the edge of 500 HR who he might have to release mid-season? Of course, he'd only cost the ML minimum so the cost is a heck of a lot less.

I would LOVE J.P. to sign Sheff.

Look, I'm not claiming I think he is going to be the answer to our prayers, but it would be league minimum!

I would LOVE J.P. to sign Sheff.

Yeah, that's right...let's sign another broken-down, disgruntled DH to take at-bats away from Lind & Snider.  It worked really well with Frank Thomas, didn't it?

Unbelievable...

It is a VERY different situation.

The key is that they would only have to pay Sheff league minimum. It would allow the Jays to keep Snider in AAA until mid-May, and it would let them rotate players out for off-days.

This would ne a no-lose proposition.

Sheff is not done. The question is, who gets the last of him?

Sheff was only marginally better than Millar last year and comes with a lot more baggage, while Millar has been known work very well with young players.

Sheffield: .225 / .326 / .400
Millar: .234 / .323 / .394

"Sheffield: .225 / .326 / .400
Millar: .234 / .323 / .394 "

That's precisely the reason you sign Sheffield. Sheffield, at his worst suffering through a shoulder injury that killed his bat speed, still posted better rate stats than Millar did. Sheffield hit .265/.378/.462 in a considerable # of ABs in 2007, while Millar really hasn't done anything resembling that in 5 years. I also feel like there's going to be an inclination to keep Millar around because he's a good guy, which is another reason I would sign Sheff - if he's hitting he's happy and you keep him, if he isn't you're benching him and he's pissed and you can easily release him.

Kevin Millar to me is Mencherson all over again, and it infuriates me to see him likely being handed a roster spot over Inglett.

92-93 -- you might want to look up the concept of "statistical significance" somewhere...