I have had the "privilege" to live in the media epicenter of both these teams; I live in North Texas -- moved here from New York 12 years ago -- where you can see the new Dallas Cowboys stadium being built from a window down the hall from my office. But where love/hate is concerned, Tony Romo is no Derek Jeter. Where controversial Hall of Fame talents are concerned, even recent 'Boy departure Terrell Owens is no Alex Rodriguez. Where Jerry Jones is secretly relieved that, as a meddlesome, loudmouthed owner, he is now being compared to Hank, not George Steinbrenner.
That's right, welcome to New York Yankees v.2009, where an entire borough is seeking an answer to the question, "What the hell is going on? Why haven't we won a World Series this entire century?"
Yes, kids, the Yankees' most recent title came in the year 2000, the final year of the 20th century. Oh, the Bombers have played in two Series since then, compiling a 5-8 game record and two series losses to the legendary baseball powerhouses that are the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Florida Marlins in 2003. Since then, though? Nothing remotely Fall Classic-ish in the Bronx.
The Phillies won their first title since around 1776 last year. Geewhilikers, the Red Sox -- the Red Sox! -- have won TWO titles in the 21st century. It's Baseball Weirdness on a Twilight Zone scale for the Yankee faithful around North America -- and yes, they are still all around North America, living amongst you, interspersed among their Yankee-hating neighbors and "friends."
The Yankees have now gone eight consecutive seasons without winning a title, halfway to matching the 16-year drought from 1979-94, which in itself eclipsed the 14-year title-free string from 1963-76. To put that in perspective, the Yankee franchise had never before that gone more than three years without a title since winning its first ring in 1922.
So anyway, it's about *&^%$#@! time for the pinstriped baseballin' machine to salt away its 40th pennant and 27th World title. They've committed more than $200 million in payroll to that goal in 2009, and more than half a billion dollars in guaranteed contract dollars going forward overall. That's not to mention the cost of a new new Yankee Stadium, so now Joe and Jane Bronxresident can opt between buying tickets for a family night at the ballgame some summer's eve or paying to send Joe Jr. to Princeton for a year.
If the Yankees have the year they're paying to have -- and are, frankly, expecting -- then Joe Jr. can pack his bags for SUNY-Albany or SUNY-Binghamton; heck, if the answers to, say, two-thirds of the questions listed below go the Yankee way, J.J. might be headed to SUNY-Plattsburgh or even Clinton Community College in Plattsburgh.
Loyal Bauxites, you are hereby invited to share your thoughts on the answers to the below questions. Fair warning: given that most readers of this fine publication are in the "vehement abhorrence" category of Yankee follower mentioned earlier ... play nice!
New stadium, new managing partner. Does any of that matter?
The new Yankee Stadium, by all accounts, is awesome, and despite the insane price range for the tickets, will probably turn out to be a cash cow for the Yankees. "The House that George Built," though, will be inhabited most noticeably by Hank Steinbrenner, stepping into his father's shoes in ways that might not thrill many a player, while potentially making the careers of any number of Gotham media shills.
To say that Hank is trying to demonstrate he is like his father in bringing the Yankees championships might stir fond memories in pinstriped followers of the halcyon days of 1996-98-99; but if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs again, Hank might could call to mind another championship era, the 1977-78 Yankees of "straw who stirs the drink" and "one's a born liar, the other's convicted." If the back pages of the Post and the Daily News are plastered with photos of a blustering Hank in 2009, that's bad news for the Yankees.
We can't have a Yankee preview without obsessing about A-Rod, now can we?
Listen -- the guy's the best player in baseball. Yes, he's self-centered and a seemingly willing controversy magnet. Yes, he handled the steroids situation poorly. Yes, he's injured and will miss up to two months of the season (probably a little less than that). But he's one of the few players who can miss that amount of time and still be considered a reasonable MVP candidate. He might come back and hit 40 homers in 120 games, lead the Yanks to the post-season and earn those MVP votes. Certainly, it's also possible he comes back for 105 games, hits .240 with moderate power and lives every day hearing variations on the same steroid questions.
Regardless, what the game's highest-paid player really needs to do is focus on NOT being in Madonna's hotel room or with a high-priced call girl in Canada. (P.S. "Not being" is different from "Not being caught," Alex!) If he comes back from injury and is simply the best third baseman in baseball for four and a half months -- as he should be -- then the Yankees probably go to the post-season. Which raises a whole different set of A-Rod questions which we will not delve into at this time. New York media and bloggers alike are carefully tagging their season preview questions as "non-A-Rod questions" -- go ahead, Google it -- there are nearly 100 returns on that exact phrase.
While we wait for A-Rod to get healthified, your Yankee starting third baseman is one Cody Ransom. A .251 hitter in parts of six seasons, mostly with the Giants, Ransom is no Graig Nettles -- not even Mike Pagliarulo, really -- and the Yankees better hope his .302 showing with four homers in 43 at-bats in a brief Bronx fling last season is the real thing. But prior to that little run, he was a career .236 hitter with three homers in 140 at-bats, so caveat emptor, Bronxites.
Mark Teixeira?
Okay, everybody knew free agent Tex was going to end up in the AL East -- either in the money-falling-from-the-sky wonderlands of Boston or New York, or in his hometown of Baltimore. Did he make the right choice?
Well, he has a career batting average of .232 at Fenway Park, so that probably made Boston seem a little less favorable -- but think about it, do you really want to play for the Yankees with a reputation as a guy who can't hit in Boston? New York's bloggers and some mainstream media have started referring to the new Yankee first baseman by the obvious yet painful shortcut nickname "M-Tex" -- is this a nod to the big-money, big-offense, Texas-Ranger-roots commonalities he shares with the similarly-nicknamed A-Rod? Nah. Write it down -- Tex is a .280/35/110 guy who can do that anywhere he plays, and he will be the kind of first baseman the Yankees have lacked -- offensively and defensively , Mr. Giambi -- since Donnie Baseball retired at the age of 34. (Tex turns 29 in two weeks.) He may not reproduce the .301/43/144 line he put up for the 2005 Rangers, but this free agent signing is one nobody in the Bronx will regret.
Is the Yankee rotation really all that?
You have to admit, a five-man front of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain, on paper, could work out to be the best rotation in the major leagues. (Given the questions about the lineup, it had better be close.) But each and every one of those five starters carries at least one Huge, Looming Question. To wit:
- Sabathia: Can he adjust from the moderate media markets of Cleveland and Milwuakee to the glare of the Big Apple? Or will he go all Ed Whitson on the Yankees?
- Burnett: Can he stay healthy? (Jay fans should know this tune by now.) Or will he remind the Yankee faithful of another ex-Marlin post-season hero they once knew in Carl Pavano?
- Wang: Is he back and healthy? Can the two-time (2006-07) 19-game winner bounce back from an injury-shortened 8-2 campaign last season to further build on his Guidry-esque 54-20 career mark?
- Pettitte: Is he reaching "over the hill" status? Entering his age-37 season, Pettitte was extraordinarily average last year, finishing 14-14 with an ERA+ of 98 (first time under 100, career mark is 117). Still, he did that over more than 200 innings -- the 10th time he has eclipsed that plateau -- and the Yankees would probably take that from the wily lefty in 2009.
- Chamberlain: Doesn't he belong in the bullpen? Well, the big kid made 12 starts last season -- and 30 relief outings -- in compiling a 4-3 mark in a snoodge over 100 innings. Some Yankee faithful look at his build and repertoire and see Roger Clemens (pre-AllTheStuffGoingOnNow) and others see the Next One to eventually replace Mariano Rivera. Mo's still around, so WWJD? (What will Joba do?) Well, he'll start out as a starter. If that doesn't go well or if Rivera suddenly realizes he's almost 40, there could be a quick shuffle back to the bullpen -- remember, the Sandman himself began his career in the starting rotation for the Yankees back in '95, so there is some precedent for that. That said, Rivera's ERA+ in 2008 was a career-best 317 and that's saying something for the guy who is MLB's all-time leader in that category.
Combs, DiMaggio, Mantle, Murcer, Rivers, Henderson, Williams -- the Yankees always seem to be well beyond good, ranging from near-great to Hall-worthy, in center field. Presumably that trend continues with ...
Um, well, ladies and gentlemen of the Bronx, meet Brett Gardner, slated to be your 2009 Opening Day center fielder. The young man -- this is his age-26 season -- hit .228 last year as a rookie with no home runs and just seven extra base hits in 127 at-bats. He did steal 13 bases in 14 attempts, so he might be a nice addition to your fantasy team if you're looking for steals, but last time the Yankees went straight-speed in CF was the not-so-memorable Omar Moreno era.
So Teixeira is 29. But the Yankees overall are really old, aren't they? How are they stacked up depth-wise?
Well, that rotation is 29-32-29-37-24, so it's not young, but it's not oppressively old. either, especially with Hughes and Ian Kennedy around, ready and hoping to poach a spot. Behind the plate, though, could be a problem -- Jorge Posada is in his age-37 season, and his backup, Jose Molina, is in his own age-34 year. Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are all in their age-35 campaigns, with A-Rod at 33/34. Other than Texeira and Robby Cano (26/27), nobody is really even arguably on the "uphill" part of their careers as Yankees. Even the "new kids," Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady, are in their age-28 and age-30 seasons, respectively. Non-roster invitees like Brett Tomko (35), Kevin Cash (31) and Shelley Duncan (29) may play a role if there are injuries. But honestly, if there is a significant injury, that probably means Hank deals Hughes and/or Kennedy for immediate help, which means Joba has to stay in the rotation, which means Rivera has to stay healthy and effective which means ...
... which means, no, the Yankees aren't very deep, especially for a team with a $200M payroll.
Is the AL East too strong for the Yankees to win?
The 2008 AL MVP, Dustin Pedroia, is in Boston. The stolen base lader, Jacoby Ellsbury, is also in Boston. The top RBI totals in the 2008 AL East were in Boston (Youkilis) and Baltimore (Huff, Mora). The best pitcher in the American League, Roy Halladay, is in Toronto. Halladay was one of only two AL East pitchers to win 20 games last year; the other, Mike Mussina, did it for the Yankees. He's retired now. The AL East saves leader last year was Boston's Jon Papelbon. The major league saves leader is in New York now, but Francisco Rodriguez is a Met. The '08 AL champs are in Tampa Bay.
Who's missing from that list of leaders? With the retirement of Mussina, there are no Yankees to be found. Still, with Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira on board, this team that won 89 games last season (though Pythoagoras had them just at 87), should be good for 92-95 wins this season. That might get them into the playoffs.
Joe Girardi -- is he on the path to be a Fall Classic Guy or inevitably an overmatched, soon-to-be-fired fall guy?
The answer to this question is completely wrapped up in the answer to the previous question. If the Yankees win, get into the playoffs and nail down that pesky 27th title, then Girardi draws Hank Steinbrenner's praise and comparisons to another Joe, Torre. If the Yankees start slow, struggle at .500 or so, and fall to an early fourth-place rut, then Hank-n-Stein's monster rises to axe Girardi before Memorial Day.
Welcome to the new stadium, same as the old stadium.
So what's the final word?
Rivera stays healthy. Teixeira wins the MVP. There are other health issues and A-Rod isn't quite the MVP candidate he can be. Stir, mix, shake, and that's 93 wins, good for a third-place tie -- with your Toronto Blue Jays -- in the AL East, one gutwrenching game behind the Wild Card winning Boston Red Sox.
But then, I'm always wrong with these projections.
