It's a bit enerving that the guys leading the team in RBI (Lane, Campbell, Emaus) are not likely to make the team. And I'm not even talking about Snider.

I totally agree.  Again, it's seems to be who you are (or aren't) instead of how you perform.  We need Jason Lane.

By the way, I noticed Snider only batted once in Wednesday's game and didn't play at all yesterday.  Not hurt, is he??

Considering Wells, and Rios have been missing, its not all that bad. Would like to see Lind do a little more but its still early. I pretty excited to see Emaus up there, could provide a solid replacement for Rolen if needed.

I am reminded of Major League 2:

Rube Baker: Wow, Willie's really got some power!

Lou Brown: ...Off a guy who'll be bagging groceries in a couple weeks.

If I wasn't so lazy, I'd look up how the Jays' Spring Training RBI leaders have fared against legitimate major league pitching.  If Lane's jacks all came against guys who pitched a full season in the majors last year, I'd be a lot more optimistic.  Remember Gabe Gross?

A huge performance in Spring Training isn't necessarily reflective of one's actual major league ability.  The kids and the hopefuls obviously get a ton more plate appearances because they're the ones on the bubble, and when you're paying a guy $100M over the next few years, he is not getting cut and sent down no matter how weak his numbers are in ST.

We need Jason Lane.

 

No, we don't.  I'm "terrified" at the prospect of him taking playing time away from Snider and Lind. 

 

 

Spring rarely shows you the truth.  Back in the glory days the Jays would often stink up spring and get 400 averages from guys like Luis Sojo and Matt Stark (a catching prospect who had very little ML time).  ML'ers are working on getting their bodies into shape, their timing down, and trying new things out.  Teams are playing guys out of position to see if they can handle it (Cecil Fielder at 3B was an adventure).  Getting tons of hits off of ML pitchers doesn't mean a ton, nor does getting it off of AAA or AA or A guys. 

This is the time of year fans can get excited over the Jason Lane's of the world, but the team has to look deeper and see that Lane is 32 and has hit 241/314/457over 1200 AB's in the majors.  As a right handed hitter he could be useful in a mix and match with Snider/Lind/Overbay.  I'd rather he was here than McDonald at this stage, but he won't be going anywhere but AAA if the Jays don't keep him on the ML roster.

John,

I completely agree with you about Jason Lane.  Recent memory recalls Gabe Gross and Simon Pond having huge springs for the Jays before crashing back down to earth as soon as the real season began.

Lane looked fairly promising a few years ago - he had excellent numbers in the minors, and a pretty good debut in the majors, hitting 272/348/463 in '04 and 267/319/499 in'05. Not great, and a bit old, but he could be a useful role player.

Emaus obviously isn't going to make the big league club, but I wonder if he might end up skipping AA.

Lucky,

Snider's knee is sore. Doesn't sound like anything serious.

Ex-assistant Jays GM Bart Given has a blog: http://www.insidethemajors.com/

I doubt Emaus will skip AA.  AAA is a hitters heaven in Vegas so odds are the Jays will try to avoid pushing kids there in order to avoid bad habits (swinging for the fences) from occurring.

With Scott Campbell due for AAA 2B is taken there.  Although if the Jays put Campbell at 3B, or shift Emaus back there an opening could occur.  In the AAA mix are vets Brandon Fahey and Kevin Melillo (SS/2B main positions respectively). Emaus could easily displace Melillo, but if Inglett goes down (as is the rumour) then Inglett will be all over the place eating playing time so Emaus must stick in AA.

Thanks for the link, Barry. I haven't yet had the chance to read much of it, but it looks interesting.

Interesting how Mills is going about stuff lately.  He gave up 6 hits in 5 IP (not bad), 1 walk, 4 strikeouts (solid), 1 home run (not good, but not horrid) but gave up 4 runs (bad).  Seems like he is having issues with everything matching up just right to get runs in.  Don't know what that says about him, if it is a focus issue or just dumb luck.  Last time he gave up 5 walks, 2 strikeouts, 4 hits in 4 innings but only 2 runs scored.  Go figure.

Frasor got a shutout inning in so far, while the hitters are killing Tampa pitching in the 5th/6th innings (8 runs in two innings so far).   FYI: Lane was 2 for 3 vs Garza with a double. Of course Adams also was 2 for 3 with a triple and is hitting 357 so spring stat sample warning is still in effect.

If Mills does not crack the opening day rotation, is he expected to likely start the year at AA or AAA? We could have an interesting mix at AAA potentially...if Richmond and Clement are the 4/5 starters, R Romero, Cecil, Mills and Janssen could be very solid 6-9 insurance (truth be told, better than the 4/5 starters)...

This subject was covered earlier here, but lets dig in more now that we have more info.

Cecil is in AAA for certain, as is Bill Murphy and Davis Romero and Ricky Romero.  Clement likely is as well.  That covers AAA.

So, what to do with the loser from the battle for #4/5 - Richmond, Janssen, or Mills?  I could see the Jays putting Janssen or Mills there to keep them from the trauma that Las Vegas will be.  Clement could be sent to A+ as a 'rehab' stint.  Is Davis Romero hurt?  If so then that opens a slot as well in AAA. 

It will be interesting this year with the mass of pitching talent and the Vegas nightmare (major hitters paradise).  Of course, that will teach the pitchers to keep the ball down.

How do the Jays use their AA/AAA teams? I'm asking because I really don't know. Some teams -- the Rangers of recent years come to mind -- often use AA as the real jumping-off-point to the majors and for major/minor shuttling, then use AAA as a stashing point for vets and 4A guys. I think that's one reason Texas moved their AA club to Frisco, which is 45 minutes from Arlington.

What do the Jays do?

Blair reports that Janssen will throw Tuesday and the Jays are talking to Shawn Hill. 

Hill needs to pitch, but probably not at the major level.

I figure Frasor is still on the trading block which would free a spot in the bullpen for Richmond or Janssen.

The only guy Lane could still ABs from is Millar who  is older, can't really play anywhere but 1B/DH and hasn't been anything special so far.

Mills has good stuff, but might need more seasoning. Was that his first game pitching to Barajas? 

I'm not sure labelling Casey 'the Fugitive' is going to hold a lot of traction. But if you always accompany it with a picture of Famke, I suppose anything is possible. I wonder how well it would work to give Casey the nickname 'Phoenix', then with Wolverine already in the pen, you've got the makings of an X-men squad out there. You could give Carlson 'Iceman', League 'Storm', Frasor 'Cyclops', Downs 'Beast' and Ryan 'Magneto'. 

I'll try to answer Mick's question.  Historically, the Jays have tended to put their prospects through both double A and triple A, although there has been a tendency to accumulate the very best prospects in New Hampshire. Now that the triple A team has moved from Syracuse to Las Vegas, you might guess that the club would be more inclined to promote top prospects directly from double A.

Cecil is in AAA for certain, as is Bill Murphy and Davis Romero and Ricky Romero.  Clement likely is as well.  That covers AAA.

And that neglects not only whoever loses out in the majors but Bullington.

I have no source but i have a hunch that Murphy might end up in the pen in that situation.

Right now I have one of two scenerios -

a. Janssen's health doesn't set him back too much to make opening day =
Doc/Listch/Purcey/Janssen/Richmond in the majors
Cecil/Mills/R. Romero/Clement/Bullington in Vegas with D. romero and Murphy in the pen

b. Janssen is on the DL = Janssen stays in Dunedin for extended ST and a tune up with the D-Jays if necessary, Mills or Clement is in the Jays rotation and Murphy is in the Vegas rotation. When Janssen gets healthy he stands to bump either Richmond or Clement (I dont think they take Mills north with the idea he gets bumped) and Bastian keeps saying Cecil won't be down long which presents an interesting conundrum.

Honestly, I have no idea why the Jays are talking to Hill, they have no room for him.

But then, I can't figure why they keep clinging to Murphy either...

I think that we have to at least take Jason Lane up north with the big club. He's younger than Millar and could be taught to play 1B and possibly get a lot of time in the outfield/DH against lefties. I think that it would be a good move to spell one of Snider and Lind EVERYTIME we play a really good lefty pitcher, and there in itself, we've created a role for Lane. Of course, Bautista gets a shot at these games but solely for Overbay at firstbase.

Btw, Jeff Keppinger is out of options and he seems to be out of Cincy's plans. Surely, we can swing a trade like Camp for him. Keppinger's a .300 hitter. He didn't do so hot last year but he was battling a fractured hand and knee injuries. I haven't seen him play in the field but he's got to be a passable defender at shortstop.
What I like most about him is that he's sported a 90% contact rate and that means lots of balls in play and a low strikeout total.
JP, get on the phone on this one asap!

If Clement keeps pitching well, he'll opt for free agency.  The only way he stays with the club is if Mills and Janssen really struggle the rest of ST.

I like the idea of keeping Jason Lane as well.  I know that the conventional wisdom argues that spring stats don't matter, but what about for the players who come to camp to fight for jobs?  JP has talked about having 'character' players and a 'winning attitude' - in that case, shouldn't players have the opportunity to have a great off-season, then come to camp and win a job?

I'm not talking a major role here - spelling Lind and Snider is a solid usage of him .  Lane has shown more than Millar, has more upside (admittedly, it's not much, but still) and would easily be more valuable than a 7th reliever in the early going.  If it doesn't work, demote / release him when a 7th guy is needed in the pen.  If it does, free talent, and you show the 'freely available talent' players that Toronto is a place where they can win a job out of camp. 

 

I'm with you, I've been wondering about Keppinger for the last few years. He may not solve the Jays' SS problem, but he can hit and at the very least we are desperate for the depth. Unless the price is too high, and it shouldn't be since he seems to be falling out of favor in Cincy, I think he's got Jays written all over him. This is one low cost guy it would really make sense for the Jays to take a chance on.

With Clement, he can opt out his contract on June 1st. So we can still work with him in the minors until then. Althought given the current setup, I see him as above Richmond, Janssen and Mills so we should just give him a shot and see how it goes.

As far as the bench goes, I think a lot of our problems could be solved if we considered Aaron Hill to be our backup SS.  That allows us to keep Inglett as our backup 2B.  Bench would be Barrett, Bautista, Inglett and Lane/Miller (at this point, I'd take Lane but there's three weeks to go).

If we keep Jmac as a backup SS over Inglett, I'd be disappointed.  Even though Inglett has an option, he deserves to be on our bench.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090315&content_id=3993452&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor There's the link

I remember that Robert Ray was reassigned to AAA a week ago too. 

Considering Cito's love for Scutaro and the fact he is not a long term solution at shortstop I don't see why they can't just ride Marco into the ground and use Inglett or Bautista as the backup at shortstop.  If you can get 130 games out of Scutaro you only need 32 starts out of those guys.  Less if you bring someone else up as a september callup.  If no one wants him you might even be able to convince McDonald to go live it up in vegas for a few months to see if this is doable and he can gamble away the multi year deal he never should have got.

Of course the other alternative is just to have one less pitcher but if all you're going to use Mac for is 40 starts at shortstop with a bat barely better then the pitcher, a couple times as a defensive sub and half a dozen pinch running appearances thats probably as big of a waste of a roster spot as the 12th pitcher.  Plus you might decide to play him at 2nd or 3rd just to get him into games which is an even worse idea.

Honestly, I have no idea why the Jays are talking to Hill, they have no room for him.

Perhaps because Hill has for more upside and potential than a guy like Murphy. A lot of people seem to believe that he had 2/3 starter potential and he may be needed at some point. Plus, I believe he has at least one more year of arbitration eligibility next year so it gives the Jays quite a few options. Not that this is necessarily what will happen, but I'm guessing that the ML and AAA rotation will maybe be something like this.

ML: Halladay, Litsch, Purcey, Richmond and Mills

AAA: Clement, R Romero, Hill, Janssen and Cecil (not in any particular order). This would push guys like Bullington, D Romero and Murphy to the pen unless someone stays behind in extended ST which seems very possible.

I think that is excellent depth for the 6-10 starters and hopefully McGowan is back around the same time that Clement is ready to opt-out.

Also, taking a look at the 40 man roster on MLB.com, the Jays only have 12 spots attributed to hitters (22 pitchers). Presumably, Barret or another catcher will be added, Millar or Lane will be added and Inglett will be sent to the minors barring injury. Mills will also be added and I suppose Clement could be as well. The Jays will likely move one of Frasor/Tallet/Camp and Wolfe (possibly even two) and the Padres are looking for bullpen help. At some point during the year Cecil will likely be added to the 40 man and JPA might as well late in the year. Murphy seems extremely expendable to me. Overall, I like the depth that Jays have amongst their pitchers and I fully expect that the Jays will be able to grow virtually all of their own cheap pitching and, as long as we can keep Halladay and have some good injury luck for once, we are in excellent shape for 2010 and beyond. Of course, it is still the AL East...

Sigh. This is why I love this place, I can been knee deep in a PhD thesis, during my favourite time of the baseball calendar and all I need do is login, look at the posts and know that everything will be all-right and Griffin is, as always, all-wrong.

OK, Blue Jays, let's, play, ball! (insert crack of the bat here).

Anyone who thinks it's silly to sign high potential starting pitchers to minor league contracts is silly. It'll be great if we can get Shawn Hill. It's a good risk to take considering its high rewards. Hell, we might get a real steal out of Clement if he's regained his form.


btw, Chris, what are you writing your PhD thesis on?

David Pinto at Baseballmusings.com, using a combination of projection systems has forecasted the Jays to score approximately 75 runs more this year then last. I remember Mike G forecasting the Jays to allow about 90 runs more.

Taking -15 off their net runs for/against last year would make the Jays what, 1 or 2 wins less than their expected total from last year?

Are the Blue Jays this years dark horse team? They certainly seem to be flying under just about everyone radars. And, for some people,they are so far below their radar they are essentially non existant.

Perhaps a year of reduced expectations would allow them to finally overachieve their expected won-loss record.

Dear SheldonL,

I study Perception & Cognition @ McMaster University in Hamilton, ON, CANADA. I can be found on the web:

http://psych.mcmaster.ca/taylorcp

As for Clement, yes, he was a steal -- but can the Jays keep him until after the trading deadline, is he healthy? I've (obviously) been out of the loop for the classic and most of spring training, yet I still have websites I check in on from time to time.

Thank you to zepplinkm, earlier, for having my back.

Two comments...

FIRST: christaylor..."Perception and Cognition"..."Temporal properties of modal and amodal completion in noise."

When I went to your site I was going to come back here and playfully rib you by uttering some clever backhanded put down...then I saw the shit you do...so I'm reduced to simply saying, "WTF?" And offer one bit of advise...When I was a management consultant I used to joke that, "a guy with a BA has a higher ceiling, in whatever line of work he found himself in, than a guy with a HS diploma. A guy with a Masters had a higher ceiling than the guy with a BA,  AND a guy with a PhD - who now knew almost EVERYTHING about VERY LITTLE  was qualified to drive cab. Good luck my friend! But seriously - wow - you are studying some seriously cool stuff!

SECOND: zeppelinkim - you question, "Are the BlueJays this years dark horse team?" And I respond - They might have been if not for the fact that pitching wins ballgames and the Yanks, Boston and even TB all have quite wonderful starting pitching this year. Baseball is a marathon - pitching bludgens you over the long haul. We will be MUCH better offensively than last year - significantly worse pitching wise (though still quite good - just not league leading good). By seasons end we will consider it having been a most successful campaign - in the AL East - IF we can get a winning record for a solid fourth place finish. Anything more would be a season for the ages.

  Jordan Bastian, in his blog today, reveals that Ricky Romero is back in contention for a starting-rotation job.   After a reputedly impressive stint in the minor-league camp, he's been handed six innings in tomorrow's "A" game against the Reds.   I find this quite astonishing, but I see two possible explanations -- contradictory ones.  Cito is giving it the positive spin:  "Arnsberg has been working with him and he really says he's come on quick," quoth Cito.  But the second possibility is that the Jays are getting desperate.  The Jays have already confirmed that Janssen's injury setback means that he will need more time in Florida in extended spring training when the season begins.  Cecil is not ready.  Mills pitched most of last season in Lansing and he might not be ready.  Clement is a shadow of his former self, and the Jays have clearly signalled that they don't want to start the season with him in the rotation if they can help it.  Richmond might be adeqiate for one of the two open slots, but they still need someone else.  The attempt to sign Shawn Hill is another sign of the desperation.  Three months from now, the Jays might be flush with a surplus of good pitchers, but they urgently need help now -- and that could be the break that Ricky Romero needs. 

Clement got creamed today, giving up 8 runs, tons of baserunners including 7 walks.  Richmond relieved in the middle of the 5th and wasn't much better, giving up another 2 runs in the inning.   I just hope Janssen recovers soon, because those last 2 spots in the rotation are looking very suspect without him.

On the last two spots - we have two talented REAL prospects - both (nearly) ready for prime time - I'd rather Cecil and Mills take their lumps and we lose, as they learn, rather than we watch Clement and Richmond take their lumps and we just lose. At least with Mills and Cecil we've got the HOPE they'll amount to something. Bearing in mind the proviso we all know - young pitchers will break your heart.

Are you sure it isn't April 6th yet?

I sure hope Brian Tallet's arm is stretched out. He's probably going to be needed to go 4 innings twice a week. At this point, it seems strange as to why Cecil was sent down to minor league camp. He wasn't getting bombed by the other teams and should have been given more rope considering he's the teams top prospect. The Jays find themselves in a position where they will likely give out 2 rotation spots to 2 players that haven't earned it. If the Jays have learned anything the past couple of years, it should be that washed up veterans that appear not to have anything left in the tank probably don't (i.e. Clement, Maroth, Okha, Thompson, Zambrano).

Spring traning has gone on forever. Let's get to the games that count!

How much of an impact will the reduced capabilities of the starting rotation have on the bullpen? If part of the reason last year's pen was so good was because the starters were (thus allowing the pen to be better rested, deployed in the best manner possible, etc), how much of a reduction in productivity can we expect from the pen, just from the fact that they will be used more often, and perhaps less often in ideal situations (since Cito's hand would presumably be forced at times to put a reliever in he would rather not).

Is this such a small factor that it's impact will be mitigated by other circumstances? (Such as full health BJ Ryan, etc)?

A bit of 'dis and a bit of 'dat....

'DIS -

Since we're going to need EVERY ounce of offense we can beg, steal or borrow - I look at Lane (Hits R) 378/396/822 5HR in 45 AB's - I look at Emaus (Hits R) 343/410/743 3HR in 36 AB's.... AND I think is there ANY way we can work those bats into the mix? For instance - could either one platoon with Lind at DH? Lind (Hits L) in 37 AB's 297/357/432 with 1HR. AND/OR platoon with - Overbay at First? Overbay (Hits L) is hitting 238/333/429 1HR in 21AB's.

'DAT -

Snider is hitting 361/376/694 with 3HR in 36AB's. Bautista is hitting 500/560/591 1HR in 22 AB's. Rolen is hitting 313/421/750 1HR in 17AB's. Rios and Wells have both been absent  - BUT both have had letters from their Mother's excuising them from PT.

CLEARLY - we've got more offense than we've had in awhile - just our luck that this is the year we start out with Abbott and Costello pitching in the 4 and 5 spots. Despite all this turmoil - maybe even because of it - I'm REALLY looking forward to the season - to quote my 9 year old neice - "I'm SOOOO excited!"

These last few years, it seems like the Jays either have good/great pitching, and inadequate hitting, or vice-versa.  This year looks like our hitters might surprise us (not blow us away, but be better than league average, if Snider and Lind, Hill perform to abilities and we don't have major injuries to guys like Rolen/Wells/Rios), but our pitching is looking likely to be below league average, at least until the 2nd half of the year.

Our defense looks like it will be pretty good as well, so how can we upgrade our pitching odds?

How about talking NOW to the Korean teams that have pitchers on their WBC team?  2-3 of their pitchers (including the guy who dismantled Venezuela last night, Yoon) could be all we need!  And I've said before how great their 1st baseman would look as a Jay (leads WBC in hrs, rbi, gold glove D), and apparently he is a FREE AGENT!  (according to announcers, though perhaps they meant after this upcoming year, so let's plant the seeds now).

Can the Jays invest in some sort of arrangement with a korean organization (baseball academys, etc), to give us an advantage in recruiting their future players?

Are any of da BOX following the WBC anymore, after Canada's elmination?  Would appreciate some thoughts on it...  format could definitely could be improved (seeding matches seem frivolous), be the caliber of baseball has been very good IMO.

I'm back from Arizona and have a spring training story to tell.  On St. Patrick's Day, we went to see the D'Backs host the White Sox in Tucson.  My better half asked at the outset whether there were any ex-Jays in the game.  There were none.  In the fifth inning, Ryan Roberts entered the game to play second base for Arizona.  I gave my wife the quick and dirty scouting report on the first ex-Jay in the game- more power than you'd expect from a middle infielder and not much range.  Roberts came up in the bottom of the fifth and smacked a two run shot to left.  Later he doubled off the left-centerfield wall to drive in another, but also came up a little short defensively on a couple of balls in the hole.

Scott Schoeneweis came on later, and to my surprise, did not look completely done yet.  I think that he can still get out lefties.

As the kids who surround me and who use facebook each and everyday say around me, now, "I like this!"

Thanks mylegacy for your compliments. As for the cab, I only have my G1 (grew up in Mimico) so if it is cabs for me, oh me, oh my...I am toast.

However, I tell everyone who'll listen (and no one does) my dream job has always been to work as/for the GM of my hometown baseball team. It'll never happen, but I'll play with matlab, latex and the internet and see where this degree takes me, here's hoping it isn't too far south (I've fallen in love with the cold over the past 4 years).

To quote my 9 year old neice - "I'm SOOOO excited!"

I agree with her, I've got my tickets to the April 7th game (out in LF, with my gal, Julia Pietrus) so we can check out the pen before the game and make our way to 130B, Row 12 and just have a great time like we did about 2 or so years ago when we watched that Japanese sensation pitch his first game at the dome. I saw no trick pitches, so I though that, um, what's his name Andrew "Dice" something or other would be good for the league, if not the Blue Jays. Chacin pitched. I liked him. He made his debut on my birthday in 2004.

The Jays find themselves in a position where they will likely give out 2 rotation spots to 2 players that haven't earned it. If the Jays have learned anything the past couple of years, it should be that washed up veterans that appear not to have anything left in the tank probably don't (i.e. Clement, Maroth, Okha, Thompson, Zambrano).

While I know that JP is criticized for some of these signings, I think these guys work well as placeholders instead of simply having the young pitchers being thrown into the fire. For example, would McGowan have been as good in 2007 if he had to start the year in the majors? He probably would have been shuttled between the bullpen and rotation all year and that didn't work in 2006. Would Purcey have been as good last year if he didn't dominate AAA first? Maybe, but it seems unlikely.

While I certainly don't want the Jays to go below .500 or anything, I think the number one goal of the year is to develop prospects at the ML level properly and at the right pace. We have enough pitchers who will start at AAA with solid potential; surely by the end of April one or two will be pushing for a big league job. If Clement and Richmond (or other organizational fodder) have to be placeholders and lose a few times, I don't mind, as long as it means the young pitchers are in the majors at the right time and not too early.

It’s hard to say if McGowan would have performed well in 2007 if he started in the Majors instead of the minors. We will never find out the answer to that question.

My point of view is that I would much rather watch a young pitcher like Cecil struggle in the Majors than watch the Ohka’s and Clement’s of the world struggle. At least one presents upside while the other 2 don’t. While there’s no guarantee, a young pitcher will succeed in the majors, you won’t find out unless you give them a chance. Excluding Litsch’s demotion last season, he only pitched 15 innings at the AAA level before pitching for the Jays with positive results. And because this is clearly a rebuilding year for the Jays, they have nothing to lose in finding out what they have in the kids. Let them pitch and if they fail, than you can bring up the retreads. The same goes for a young hitter like Snider. Even if Snider was batting .200 I would still let him start in the Majors this season.

Rather than writing the experienced players off and falling for the prospect hype that is the burden of our era, I like the plan of giving vets a change to try and use what they've learned in the league to generate outs/runs. Sure it didn't work to begin 2007 with the three headed monster, but in each case the pitchers did have their moments. In summary, it was a failure, but the 2007 Jays did not miss the playoffs because of that experiment. I doubt on the whole we'd have seen McG/Marcum/Litsch do better out of the gate.

McG had a wonderful moment against COL in June, but for most of the season he was good start, bad start, good start, bad start. Add to that, time missed by Doc because a vestigal organ decided to go hay-wire, AJ being fickle, Reed's back exploding because of his masochism with HBP at the plate, Overbay's hand getting in the way of a power pitcher's fastball (I didn't see this injury, so my memory is drawing blank, I've filled in the the player with Brandon McCarthy or some-such player). No, the 2007 Jays were a good team in some respects, but the concept needed to be beta tested and debugged something fierce. I still have enough faith in JP as a GM (I'm not sure why... but I do... except when he calls players out on the radio) to believe that while he's following the same script and changing the actors, perhaps the sound-track and cinematographer are a touch different.

Finally, good game tonight... although, I felt it wasn't so much a baseball game but an exercise in a clash of style. Any guess on how many games the Japan team would win in the AL East (note: I realize a one game series is not the same as a 162 game schedule, so the strength of opponent in this instance is irrelevant).

My point of view is that I would much rather watch a young pitcher like Cecil struggle in the Majors than watch the Ohka’s and Clement’s of the world struggle. At least one presents upside while the other 2 don’t. While there’s no guarantee, a young pitcher will succeed in the majors, you won’t find out unless you give them a chance. Excluding Litsch’s demotion last season, he only pitched 15 innings at the AAA level before pitching for the Jays with positive results. And because this is clearly a rebuilding year for the Jays, they have nothing to lose in finding out what they have in the kids. Let them pitch and if they fail, than you can bring up the retreads. The same goes for a young hitter like Snider. Even if Snider was batting .200 I would still let him start in the Majors this season.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.  Baseball is a mental game as well as a physical one and throwing someone who isn't ready into the fire COULD (not will) stunt their "growth".  Baseball history is littered with too many examples of this to even start naming any.  The last thing I would want the Blue Jays to do is to ruin some perfectly good pitching prospects just for my own entertainment.  I'd much rather they learned what they need before they hit the majors.  Jesse Litsch is the exception not the rule.

An article in the print edition of the Globe and Mail today suggested that Ricky Romero had a shot at the opening day rotation, but that Brett Cecil would likely be called up early in the year. 

You can justify different approaches to the development of Snider and Cecil, but for myself, I'd be happiest if both started out 2009 in triple A. 

There's still the question: if no one stumbles, how do we use all these guys?

Let's say - for the most difficult situation - that Romero and Mills are in the last two slots and they both do well enough not to warrant a demotion....

Janssen should be stretched out enough to be ready by late April...

Cecil has been told he'll be down less than six weeks...

Richmond is sitting there buried in line like he's late to the DMV...

McGowan Might be ready around mid-season....

Hill, if he signed, would be an available option....

Davis Romero wishes he was as far up in line as Richmond....

Robert Ray is trying to figure out who's leg he has to break to make it into the Vegas rotation...

Sure you can say "Janssen to the pen, D-Ro to the pen" but that still leaves a lot of crowding (hell it crowds the pen for one thing).

*

It's for this reason that I'm not worried about the rotation...if we get sucky work from two spots in the rotation that means not 2 pitchers failed but 5 or more have - I just don't see that happening.

You also forgot recent signee Leon Boyd who pitched pretty darn well on the Netherlands WBC team.

It's for this reason that I'm not worried about the rotation...if we get sucky work from two spots in the rotation that means not 2 pitchers failed but 5 or more have - I just don't see that happening.

I think you're being a little optimistic that Purcey and Litsch are rock solid starters.  Not that I'm expecting it, but they could both easily pitch poorly and be down in Las Vegas by the end of April (I still have adjusted to typing Las Vegas instead of Syracuse).

The problem with sorting through the starters to find a couple (or more) that are effective is that it takes time to find out which ones they're going to be, and the games start counting on April 6th.  If you're playing to figure things out for the 2010 season there's no problems (you have all year!), but if there's hope of contending this year the Jays better figure out which pitchers are going to be the best ones starting on day 1 because the margin for error in this division is really low.

Ricky Romero doing very well: 4 IP, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB, 6 hits (all singles)

Shawn Hill has signed with the Padres, so he's out of the Jays picture.    In reply to WillRain:  nobody is suggesting that the current Jays pitching problems are a result of the "failure" of five pitchers.  They are not failing -- they're just not ready yet.  Richmond might be ready.  Clement is not, and maybe he is failing (based on his performance yesterday, especially).  But the others -- Cecil, Mills, Janssen, Ricky Romero, McGowan etc. -- are not failing at all.  They're just not ready for the majors at this point.  If the team is lucky, Mills or Romero MIGHT be ready very soon.  Janssen might be ready in a few weeks, and Cecil maybe in May or June.  None of them are failures -- they just haven't had enough time at the AAA level, or they haven't had enough time to recover from injury.  Yes, in sheer numbers the Jays would seem to have enough pitchers that you'd assume that one or two would be capable of plugging the rotation holes.  But quantity doesn't solve the problem of quality.

These last few years, it seems like the Jays either have good/great pitching, and inadequate hitting, or vice-versa.  This year looks like our hitters might surprise us (not blow us away, but be better than league average, if Snider and Lind, Hill perform to abilities and we don't have major injuries to guys like Rolen/Wells/Rios), but our pitching is looking likely to be below league average, at least until the 2nd half of the year.

 

Last year, Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan gave us 484.0ip of 3.92era.

If we had replaced those 484 innings with a godawful 6.00era, the Jays would have had a team ERA of 4.19 - which would have tied them with STL for 13th in baseball.

If we had replaced those 484 innings with a bad 5.00era, the Jays would have had a team ERA of 3.85, which would have placed them 3rd in the league last year, and 2nd in the AL behind only Tampa's 3.82.

Just sayin'.

 

I think you're being a little optimistic that Purcey and Litsch are rock solid starters.  Not that I'm expecting it, but they could both easily pitch poorly and be down in Las Vegas by the end of April

Anything's possible, particularly with pitchers, but I think they'd have to pitch beyond poorly - horribly or atrociously, perhaps - to get demoted by the end of April. If they're pitching poorly in May or June and someone's hot in AAA or even AA, then you might see a demotion. And while there's admittedly cause for concern with Purcey, Litsch has been a solid MLB pitcher for two years now - I'd be surprised if he became a considerably below-average starter now.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.  Baseball is a mental game as well as a physical one and throwing someone who isn't ready into the fire COULD (not will) stunt their "growth".  Baseball history is littered with too many examples of this to even start naming any.  The last thing I would want the Blue Jays to do is to ruin some perfectly good pitching prospects just for my own entertainment.  I'd much rather they learned what they need before they hit the majors.  Jesse Litsch is the exception not the rule.

How do you know a pitcher like Cecil isn't ready to pitch at the Major League level? You don't know and I don't know. The only way to find out is to give him a chance.

Litsch has been a solid MLB pitcher for two years now

He was also sent back to Syracuse for a few starts last season (something about not relying on a pitch as much or working on a pitch he didn't use enough... I forget exactly) so it's not out of the realm of possibility to happen again this year.

From Jon Heyman of si.com:

 "Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan is throwing in the "low 80s,'' according to one AL scout. "I don't know if he's just pacing himself or this is all he's got,'' the scout said. The implication was that if this was all he had, that's a bad sign."

How do you know Cecil isn't ready?  You don't.  What you do know is that very few pitchers successfully make the transition to the majors without a 25-30 starts between double A and triple A.  Tim Lincecum did it, but then he was striking out 14 per 9 innings and not walking many.  If Lincecum strikes out 3-4 fewer per nine innings at the major league level (as he has), he can still be very, very effective (as he has). If Cecil strikes out 3-4 fewer per nine innings, he will not likely be very effective. The Lincecums of the pitching world are the exception, and it is perfectly reasonable to have a general rule that one's top pitching prospects will put in 25-30 high minors starts, at least.  Bill James suggested this 20-25 years ago; it made sense then to me, and it still does.

My point of view is that I would much rather watch a young pitcher like Cecil struggle in the Majors than watch the Ohka’s and Clement’s of the world struggle. At least one presents upside

Has the David Clyde Experiment taught baseball nothing?

Brett Cecil has already made a total of 24 starts in AA and AAA.   So, by that measure, he satisfies the Bill James rule about high-minors starts (or near enough).  However, he averaged less than 5 innings per start in those 24 starts, so maybe he does need more high-minors experience. 

Maybe it's Brad Mills that you're thinking about, rather than Cecil?   He's only had 6 starts at the AA level, and none at all at AAA.   So, by the Bill James rule, he certainly needs a lot more experience in the high minors.  Yet, weirdly enough, it is Mills, rather than Cecil, who still has a shot at joining the Jays starting rotation on opening day.

How do you know Cecil isn't ready?  You don't.  What you do know is that very few pitchers successfully make the transition to the majors without a 25-30 starts between double A and triple A.  Tim Lincecum did it, but then he was striking out 14 per 9 innings and not walking many.  If Lincecum strikes out 3-4 fewer per nine innings at the major league level (as he has), he can still be very, very effective (as he has). If Cecil strikes out 3-4 fewer per nine innings, he will not likely be very effective. The Lincecums of the pitching world are the exception, and it is perfectly reasonable to have a general rule that one's top pitching prospects will put in 25-30 high minors starts, at least.  Bill James suggested this 20-25 years ago; it made sense then to me, and it still does.

What do:Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Ervin Santana, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, Scott Kazmir, Josh Beckett,, Oliver Perez,  Jered Weaver, Manny Parra, Javier Vazquez, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, Barry Zito, Rogers Clemens, Jeremey Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Erik Bedard, Clayton Kershaw, Jesse Litsch, and Chris Young have in common?

All of them made less than 25 appearances in AA +AAA before reaching the Majors.

As you can see, it's not uncommon for pitchers to make less than 25 apperances in AA+AAA and succedd in the majors. The only way to find out if Cecil can join this group is to give him a chance. It's not like the Jays have to pull a Halladay type pitcher out of the rotation to make room for Cecil. You would be looking at the Scott Richmond's of the world.

 nobody is suggesting that the current Jays pitching problems are a result of the "failure" of five pitchers.

Understand it in context please. a "failure" to produce quality work in April or May 2009 is not a "failure" of a career. But the point remains either we get quality work, or someone has failed to deliver quality work.

 They are not failing -- they're just not ready yet. 

I'm aware of that - nevertheless, he who is "not ready yet" will "fail" to produce acceptable results.

Richmond might be ready.  Clement is not, and maybe he is failing (based on his performance yesterday, especially).

Clement is a failure in this context, but I never expected otherwise.

  But the others -- Cecil, Mills, Janssen, Ricky Romero, McGowan etc. -- are not failing at all.  They're just not ready for the majors at this point.

It seems to me you are arguing an irrelevant point. If Mills goes out and puts up an ERA over 6 in April, he failed to pitch well in April - THAT is the context of my point. I'm not saying, or suggesting anyone else is, that this would mean he was a failure forever as a major leaguer.

but it would be a failure of the Toronto Blue Jays to get good work out of his spot in the rotation.

 If the team is lucky, Mills or Romero MIGHT be ready very soon.  Janssen might be ready in a few weeks, and Cecil maybe in May or June.  None of them are failures -- they just haven't had enough time at the AAA level, or they haven't had enough time to recover from injury.  Yes, in sheer numbers the Jays would seem to have enough pitchers that you'd assume that one or two would be capable of plugging the rotation holes.  But quantity doesn't solve the problem of quality.

And yet you seem to be arguing (as I would) that there is quality along with quantity.

To re-state the point in a more direct way:

in order for the Jays to have poor results from 2 (or 4 if one doubts Listch and Purcey) then the Jays have to fail to receive quality work from ALL of 6-8 pitchers (or more)

Put another way, can the Jays come up with 128 pretty good starts (on average) from some combination of Listch, Purcey, McGowan, Janssen, Richmond, Cecil, Mills, Romero, and Romero?

I think so.

On the mental side of pitching...

The Jays RUSHED Litsch - basically he was ready...BA said about him that, "The Blue Jays can't say enough about his makeup." Mills is a 24 year old graduate Civil Engineer BA says, "Even playing catch with Mills is a challenge."

I FULLY expect Halladay, Purcey and Litsch to be quality starters this year. Romero has had maturity bludgened into him as he's slowly progressed - however Ricky's stuff has never been in question. Mills is a mature, confident gifted pitcher with an outstanding "changeup." Brett Cecil is a horse sized Jimmy Key or Ted Lilly. Janssen, McGowan and Ray will all be breathing heavily down any neck that falters. Our starting pitching will be BETTER than league average - but not as good as last year.

Our problem is that the Yanks, Boston and TB ALL have quite extraordinary starting pitching. We WILL be a better team in 09 - mainly because of the strongly improved offense - unfortunately the BEST we can hope for is a winning record and 4th place. Sigh.

in order for the Jays to have poor results from 2 (or 4 if one doubts Listch and Purcey) then the Jays have to fail to receive quality work from ALL of 6-8 pitchers (or more)

But you don't get to pitch all 6-8 guys and cherry-pick the best individual performances from the group.  A couple (or four if Purcey/Litch aren't for real) will get major league innings this season and if they get shelled you're still stuck with those results regardless of whether those guys are still pitching in the majors in June.

They don't have to fail to receive quality work from ALL those guys in order to fall out of contention early.  It'll take a certain number of regular-season starts to determine whether each prospect is ready, and those starts count whether the pitcher is in control or horribly overmatched.

Put another way, can the Jays come up with 128 pretty good starts (on average) from some combination of Listch, Purcey, McGowan, Janssen, Richmond, Cecil, Mills, Romero, and Romero?

I am sure they could, but again, they're forced to take the bad with the good and it'll take time to find out who is bad and who is good.

And those games count either way.

Actually, I thought that Cecil had made fewer than 20 high minors starts.  It's not a big deal. I guess they're planning to bring him up Longoria-style in late April for service time reasons.  It's hard to figure doing that with Cecil, and not with Snider.

Many of the pitchers who were mentioned by Ron above were brought up prematurely and struggled mightily for a couple of years ( including guys like Bonderman and Vazquez who are/were legitimately good pitchers).  Many of the others (Lincecum, Kazmir, Beckett, Verlander, Big Felix, Kershaw and Clemens) fall into the superior stuff/strikeout exception.  Several who were brought up quickly were given substantial time in the bullpen to start (Santana, Buehrle).  The best example of a starter without exceptional stuff who was promoted quickly and succeeded is Dontrelle Willis. 

Actually, I thought that Cecil had made fewer than 20 high minors starts.  It's not a big deal. I guess they're planning to bring him up Longoria-style in late April for service time reasons.  It's hard to figure doing that with Cecil, and not with Snider.

I really think that they just wanted to take 12 weeks instead of 6 weeks to stretch Cecil out.  I think there initial plan was to try it over the course of Spring Training and weren't comfortable with the results.  Remember he didn't throw 90 pitches until July last year.  You said it yourself Mike....why would they be worried about service time with Cecil and not with Snider?  Well, maybe they aren't....

Of course, one reason to worry about service time for a pitcher and not for a hitter is that there seems to be a 50/50 chance of a pitcher going under the knife and losing a year or two.  A team may feel more comfortable in foresaking service time issues and inking the "Longoria" contract with a hitter, rather than a pitcher.

I don't want Cecil to be completely exhausted when the ALDS rolls around. He would be really useful against Oakland or Cleveland.

unfortunately the BEST we can hope for is a winning record and 4th place. Sigh.

Nonsense. That's the EXPECTED outcome, the "normal" result....not the BEST. The best any team can hope for is always, by definition, better than the normal outcome.

But you don't get to pitch all 6-8 guys and cherry-pick the best individual performances from the group.  A couple (or four if Purcey/Litch aren't for real) will get major league innings this season and if they get shelled you're still stuck with those results regardless of whether those guys are still pitching in the majors in June.

They don't have to fail to receive quality work from ALL those guys in order to fall out of contention early.  It'll take a certain number of regular-season starts to determine whether each prospect is ready, and those starts count whether the pitcher is in control or horribly overmatched.

Of course. But so it is in every season. In 2007 we got bad starts from a number of pitchers and still had the second best staff in the league when the year was done - we didn't fail in the standings because of some bad starts.

Even last year, what was AJ's ERA on July 1? Plenty of bad starts there and yet we had the best staff in the majors. See uglyone's point earlier in the thread about replacing AJ/Dusty/Marcum's innings with a 5.00 ERA.

Bad starts, even from good pitcher's, are a fact of life. that's why I said good work on average not in EVERY start.

I am sure they could, but again, they're forced to take the bad with the good and it'll take time to find out who is bad and who is good.

And those games count either way.

Just like 2007? Again, pitching didn't cost us in 2007.

I agree with all the people about their being too many starters for rotation spots for around the beginning of June or whatever if all goes as planned. However, attrition will likely solve some of this problem. Janssen has already gotten injured ( or at least injured enough to preclude him from being in the opening day rotation). There will be other injuries. Remember that wonderful point last year when Halladay, Burnett, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch had made virtually all of our starts and many, myself included, felt that replacing Burnett with Cecil, Purcey, Romero or someone else wouldn't be the end of the world? Well then injury strikes and puts a massive dent into those plans.

But, yes, hopefully there will be a pitching surplus as some point which can finally land us a quality young SS that we need. Certainly one of these young starters could net us at least Jason Donald when the Phillies need more pitching. Maybe Escobar from the Brewers? That may be a stretch, but a pitcher with an average ceiling seems to be worth more than a hitter with an above average ceiling on today's trade market. After all, a completely unproven Edison Volquez (I believe that Keith Law called him a 5th starter prior to 2008) netted Josh Hamilton after a dominant half season (though he obviously had his baggage). I just hope that at some point JP doesn't get completely married to one of these pitchers and pulls the trigger to fill the one gaping hole that is impossible to fill internally by 2010.

Now from all of these young starters, Litsch probably has the most trade value at this point (though perhaps it is Cecil, who knows). A lot of people predict he will regress this year, but surely some teams value a young starter who has been very solid so far in his young career (and has added that fastball to his repertoire). Could he land Escobar from Milwaukee if Litsch has a solid couple of months to begin 2009? Who knows, perhaps it wouldn't make sense to trade a proven commodity for an unproven high ceiling SS. But maybe this could be our 2010 team with one simple trade:

SS: Escobar

RF: Rios

LF: Snider

CF: Wells

DH: Lind

C: Arencibia

3B: Rolen

1B: Overbay

2B: Hill

 

SP1: Halladay

SP2: McGowan

SP3: Cecil

SP4/5: Purcey/Mills/Janssen/R Romero etc.

 

BP: Ryan/Downs/League/Carlson/Accardo etc.

To me, that looks like it has the potential to be a 90+ win team in the AL East. Now obviously there are a ton of things that need to go right and many of the young players have to perform reasonably well or hit their ceilings...but at least we have some higher ceilings on the roster this year and next year.

This is a very long-winded way of saying that young pitching is BY FAR the best currency to possess on the market. Sure, we aren't loaded with high ceiling arms, but certainly enough guys that can be 3/4 starters who are cheap and surely teams will covet that. Our surplus of starters is a great thing. Hopefully it will land us a nice young SS by midseason...

 

As you can see, it's not uncommon for pitchers to make less than 25 apperances in AA+AAA and succedd in the majors. The only way to find out if Cecil can join this group is to give him a chance.

That's just silly. I doubt few, if any, of the pitchers you listed were promoted to the majors just to "give him a chance." The people in their organizations evaluated them and made a judgement about the pitcher's ability to adjust to MLB hitters. And some of them were wrong - did it benefit anyone to have Javier Vazquez jump from 6 starts at AA to the majors, where he put up a 6.06 ERA?

(Johan Santana also doesn't count, since he was a Rule V pick and had to be on the roster.)

It's true that neither you nor I nor anyone here likely knows if Cecil is ready. But it's possible that Cito Gaston and Brad Arnsberg have an idea. They're clearly not opposed to promoting a pitcher quickly if he's ready - Mills has even less experience than Cecil, but remains in the race.

I would assume Cito & Co. are making their decisions on which kids can be "rushed" faster and which should be taken more slowly entirely based on their assessment of these kids' respective mental makeups, confidence, and maturity.

I respect your optimism, Will.

Catching lightning in a bottle is a great thing for a team, but expecting it to happen seems a little premature.  In 2007, the team's pitching would've been in a lot of trouble if Litsch/McGowan/Marcum hadn't been immediately successful.  That's the point I'm trying to make here, that if your backup plan starters don't work out either, that's another bunch of starts where the pitching is overpowered.  I'll be the happiest guy around if Mills/Cecil/Romero manage a repeat of 2007's surprise rotation but counting on it to happen is a little too optimistic for me.

I know that bad starts from quality pitchers is a fact of life, but if the guy is giving you nothing BUT bad starts, how long can you afford to wait before you cut him loose or demote him?  Then, the same question applies to his replacement in the rotation.  Obviously this would be moot if the pitcher enjoys immediate success, but as I said before I sure wouldn't bet on it.

I think it's reasonable to be optimistic about the Jays' pitching.  I do worry, however, about the effect on the Jays' relievers of increased usage.  Even if the Jays get performance approaching league average at the #4 and #5 rotation slots, I think it's unreasonable to expect more than 5-6 innings per start from whomever fills those two roles.

Hopefully, the comebacks of Janssen and Accardo, plus a full season of League, alleviate some of those extra-bullpen-innings concerns.

Janssen may be hurt, or at least have his recovery slowed down, and Accardo hasn't had a good spring, which may or may not be meaningful but certainly isn't encouraging. Richmond would be a good addition to the bullpen, as you could throw him out there for 3-5 innings if a starter faltered. And Dirk Hayhurst has had a strong spring and good minor league numbers, so might be an option. They need at least one other long man, or Brian Tallet's arm is going to fall off by the end of May.

I like Purcey a lot, but expecting him to be good and to throw 6+ innings per start is not really reasonable in light of his minor league record.  Efficiency has not been a hallmark for his career so far.

It would be nice if the club tried a 4 man rotation with Halladay, Litsch, tandem and tandem.  It isn't happening, of course.

League gets the ball in the ninth today.  With Ryan struggling and perhaps not 100%, it would not be a shocker if the magic closer dust is sprinkled on League's lei.  If they're going to do it in the regular season, I advise that they not have a DP combination of Bautista/Emaus behind him or Brandon might explode.

"If they're going to do it in the regular season, I advise that they not have a DP combination of Bautista/Emaus behind him or Brandon might explode."

Oh, is that how he managed to give up 3 runs off 4 singles and no walks?

Sorry 92-93, no logs in spring training to tell us what kind of singles we're talking about. 

Incidentally, for Bauxites who did not know, John Brattain passed away yesterday.  He was a well-known Primer and THT contributor, and sometimes posted here. 

Wow, that's a real tragedy. I enjoyed reading his articles, even considering their length. I believe he had some young girls too, very sad.

Wow I am shocked too. I read his sight on a semi regular basis.

RIP to you John Brattain. My condolences to your family.

Bluebird Banter has a game thread up with a psuedo play-by-play of the game.  It looks like all fo Leauge's singles and outs were on ground balls.

Brittain was one of the few writers whose columns I never missed; his posts on BTF were one of the bright spots of the site.  Rest in peace, John.

Incidentally, for Bauxites who did not know, John Brattain passed away yesterday.  He was a well-known Primer and THT contributor, and sometimes posted here.

Wow, that really sucks.  He was probably the most prominent Blue Jay writer out there from his THT work.

Hey, I over at THT perusing their articles on fantasy baseball and noticed this little blub:

Earlier in the offseason Dustin McGowen had the looks of a good DL stash, but now because of a recent setback he is not expected to return until closer to July or possibly 2010. Forget about him for now.

Anyone have anymore information?  I haven't seen anything here like that; it sure puts a dent in the Jays' plans.

Excellent article on Clemens' 'roid days on the Jays...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9370578/Excerpt-from-'The-Rocket-that-Fell-to-Earth'