On the heels of the release of Vegas' over/unders, I got to thinking: Bauxites are pretty smart, think you can out-predict the oddsmakers?
Update: contest entry closes Monday, so get your picks in!
Update 2: Contest closed! Thanks for all the entries everybody!
For context, in 2007 PECOTA and Rob Neyer were about 5 wins off on average, while Buster Olney and Steve Phillips were the worst with an average deviation of 6.5-7 wins. They used a different measure for last year's results (RSME) which is more mathy, so I won't bore you with it.
So, think you can beat the "experts"? Here's your chance. Post your predictions on this thread and I'll keep track of how everyone's doing and keep the contest regularly updated throughout the season, and at the end of the season the best seer will be awarded some sort of no-prize or yes-prize.
(By the way, if this sounds familiar, it's because I was planning on doing it last year, but I did some stupid thing whereby people had to enter their predictions in a google spreadsheet or something, and then only like 2 people did it and I got lazy and never kept track. But this year I will, I promise!)
I'll throw down the gauntlet with my own predictions (also, you can conveniently copy and paste my formatting so you don't have to write out all the team names!)
Yankees: 91 wins
Red Sox: 96
Rays: 91
Jays: 82
Orioles: 71
White Sox: 78
Twins: 83
Indians: 85
Royals: 73
Tigers: 80
Angels: 88
Athletics: 90
Rangers: 77
Mariners: 68
Braves: 89
Mets: 92
Phillies: 86
Marlins: 80
Nationals: 66
Cubs: 94
Brewers: 84
Cardinals: 82
Astros: 70
Reds: 72
Pirates: 63
Dodgers: 90
Diamondbacks: 85
Giants: 74
Rockies: 79
Padres: 71
Update: contest entry closes Monday, so get your picks in!
Update 2: Contest closed! Thanks for all the entries everybody!
For context, in 2007 PECOTA and Rob Neyer were about 5 wins off on average, while Buster Olney and Steve Phillips were the worst with an average deviation of 6.5-7 wins. They used a different measure for last year's results (RSME) which is more mathy, so I won't bore you with it.
So, think you can beat the "experts"? Here's your chance. Post your predictions on this thread and I'll keep track of how everyone's doing and keep the contest regularly updated throughout the season, and at the end of the season the best seer will be awarded some sort of no-prize or yes-prize.
(By the way, if this sounds familiar, it's because I was planning on doing it last year, but I did some stupid thing whereby people had to enter their predictions in a google spreadsheet or something, and then only like 2 people did it and I got lazy and never kept track. But this year I will, I promise!)
I'll throw down the gauntlet with my own predictions (also, you can conveniently copy and paste my formatting so you don't have to write out all the team names!)
Yankees: 91 wins
Red Sox: 96
Rays: 91
Jays: 82
Orioles: 71
White Sox: 78
Twins: 83
Indians: 85
Royals: 73
Tigers: 80
Angels: 88
Athletics: 90
Rangers: 77
Mariners: 68
Braves: 89
Mets: 92
Phillies: 86
Marlins: 80
Nationals: 66
Cubs: 94
Brewers: 84
Cardinals: 82
Astros: 70
Reds: 72
Pirates: 63
Dodgers: 90
Diamondbacks: 85
Giants: 74
Rockies: 79
Padres: 71
