Under: Yankees (but not by THAT much, Mike), A's (who are going to suck)
Over: Rangers, Tigers, Giants (the oddsmakers just hate the G-men, huh?)

The typically inflated New York bump really helps the Yankee number, but the Mets are right about where they should be. If I had to pick one or the other, I'd go "under" for them, too, though.

Yankees under

CWS over

Det over

Minn over

Flor over

Hou over

St.L over

Arizona under

I think it is hard to pick which of the bottom teams are really going to take and win 60 games. I think it might be San Diego this time.

This is can be a disaster. 

With all due respect, disaster is probably a wee bit of an overstatement. While Wolfe has pitched well in his limited, low-leverage innings the past two seasons, he could rank as low as 10th on the bullpen depth chart. LHR: Ryan, Carlson, Downs, Tallet. RHR: League, Frasor, Accardo, Janssen, Camp.

If I may interject the Vegas-speak to ask, are there going to be team previews this year?

We are discussing that currently. I think the short answer is yes, but not precisely as they've been done in past years. More information forthcoming, presumably.

Was that vague enough? I *love* PR!

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090311&content_id=3965304&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

Does anyone know what kind of pitch Richmond is throwing in the picture?

BC: It really depends. I love closing; I love the intensity of it. I think I have more of the makeup to be a closer, but as of right now I think I'm better suited, and can help the team better, as a starting pitcher. That's just because I can use all of my pitches; I think I'm pretty good at setting people up and working the counts—stuff like that."

Actually, I was being unintentionally vague, which is more my life than my profession.

I am a Firefox guy, but here at work we are mandated to use MSIE, so I guess that was the issue.

I'm surprised so many people are picking the Jays for under, and calling it a good bet at that. The bar wasn't exactly set high for them.

They still have Roy Halladay. He of a career 131 - 66. He went 19-7 one year when the Jays went 78-84. That was a bad ball club. This years pitching staff is definitely better than that year's club - the guys who started for the Jays that year aside from Doc, and their ERA+ that year?

Loaiza (25 starts, 81 ERA+), Walker (20 starts, 107 ERA+), Miller (18 starts, 84 ERA+), Parris, Carpenter, Prokopec, and Lyon started a combined 49 games and their ERA+ ranged from 68 - 88. Pretty brutal group. The bullpen was not good. Certainly not incredibly awesome, like this years club is.

Their offence had Delgado (had a terrific year), Hinske (had a good year). Shannon Stewart and Woodward were the next two best starters on offence. (Josh Phelps did play well in 74 games).

So what am I saying is? It is hard to go under .500 when you have Doc Halladay making 30+ starts in a season. Infact, that is the only season in his career the team finished below .500 and he started more than 30 games. They went 80-82 in 2005 when he made 19 starts. Pretty sure another 10 starts and that team would have comfortable finished at something like 85-77.

This year we have an excellent defensive ballclub. We have Hill returning to 2B, which on a whole, will upgrade the infield D. Our OF defence will remain largely unchanged. We have an outstanding bullpen.  Our offence will be better than last year through addition by subtraction (no Stewart, Wilkerson, Mench, replace them with Lind/Snider). I think it's a safe bet Rios will be better than last year, although admittedly, we have some pretty significant question marks in Overbay, Rolen, and I would say even Wells, given his bipolar hitting track record. 

If you think the team can go 22 - 11 in 33 Doc starts (which is clearly the basis for my argument), they would have to go 59 - 70 in their remaining other games. I think this team is better then that.

It's pretty easy to be very positive about this team, just like it's pretty easy to be very negative.

Why am I choosing the positive side (other than the fact that I'm a deranged homer)?

CITO GASTON.

That's right - i'll gladly make the sacreligious claim that MANAGERS ARE IMPORTANT IN BASEBALL.

The vast turnaround in the team once Cito got here last year was no fluke, IMO - especially the impact he had on key guys like Rios and Wells.

The way I see it, this team was vastly underrated last year. They were 4th in all of baseball in run differential, playing in the toughest division in baseball.

That means something.

Our pitching wasn't just good last year - it was crazy awesome spectacular, and far, far better than anyone else's pitching. Our pitching can take quite a hit from last year and STILL be a well above average pitching staff.

Meanwhile, our offense wasn't awful last year - it was merely average. And once Cito came in, and Lind and Snider were added to the lineup fulltime....our offense was just plain GOOD.

Meanwhile, we have some very, very talented kids coming up right in the roles that we are most lacking - we've got Cecil and Mills, two ace minor leaguers last year with great stuff and makeup, to slot into the gaping holes in the rotation. We've also got one of the best slugging prospects in baseball to step into the big slugging hole in the middle of the lineup. Is it a coincidence that our best and most MLB-ready prospects happen to fill our greatest needs at the moment?....or is it a sign that our luck is finally turning?

(The answer is obviously the latter, of course).

I don't think there's much of a stretch at all to predict that both the pitching and the offense could both be well above average this year.

And who knows? maybe we not only stop failing our friend Pythagoras, but maybe finally we just get outright lucky and do better than even Mr.Pythagoras would guess.

In summary....CITO GASTON IS THE BAD LUCK BUSTING GOD OF INTANGIBLES.

No more underachiving players, giving us a lineup riddled with career worst seasons every year.

No more underachieving team, significantly underperforming their Pythag every year.

Cito Gaston, baby.

The team needs to do a better job of aligning players with their strengths. Overbay should definitely be starting every game against RHP, while Bautista, if they can make his D passable at first, should be starting the bulk of the games against LHP. The offence will be better as a result, and the defence worse but it is a trade-off I'll gladly take.

Further to that note, Wells should be moved out of CF to allow the superior defender who plays next to him to take over in CF. Just sticking to these two things would improve the Jays a bit without changing anything about the team, just the way they're deployed. I know I'm beating a dead horse on this issue around these parts, but it is so maddeningly frustrating to see relatively easy ways to improve the team and not know if they'll be followed.

Unfortunately, politics play too much of a role to allow the best course of action to always be taken.

Unfortunately, politics play too much of a role to allow the best course of action to always be taken.

With respect to position changes, that is a problem as old as the game. Unless players come forth and suggest a position change (isn't this what Robin Yount did?), it is awfully difficult to move an entrenched player from a position at which he was once a top notch defender or, in the case of Jeter, perceived as such. Would that it weren't so, but those are shark infested ego-filled waters for management to navigate (to mix a metaphor or three). I think Wells will only be moved out of center field long past the point he should have been.

Cito has been all over the map with what he's said this spring, Bastian said Cito has now said Accardo has to make the team and that League and Frasor are now in the lead for the righties in the pen.

LINK

Well the rotation race has been narrowed down some what, on Jordan Bastian's twitter page this morning he said that Cecil was retuned to the minors camp and it's up to Maroth to either head to the minors camp or take and unconditional release.

Link

Don't mind my spelling mistakes above, sorry about the double post but Bastian's written in his blog regarding Cecil and Maroth if you'd rather read that than the two lines on his twitter page:

Bastian's Blog

Bastian also hints, in an article yesterday, that Matt Clement might open the season in the minors because he needs more time to build strength after his injuries.  So that would leave three candidates for two open slots:  Janssen, Richmond and Mills.   In today's game against the Reds, meanwhile, Mills has (so far) pitched three shutout innings, to reduce his spring ERA to 2.08.   Sounds like he has a genuine chance to make the team. Rather remarkable for a kid who spent most of last season (81 innings) at Lansing.

Personally, I'd be delighted to see Roy, Lirtch (not a spelling mistake), Purcey, Janssen and Mills start the season. Earlier I thought that Richmond and Clement would be in those two spots.

Quietly, day by day, at bat by at bat - Rolen is slowly beomming Rolen.

I predict Lind, Rolen, Hill and Snider will all be real improvements with Wells - who knows and Rios - ugh. Rios has been batting in the WBC like my great Aunt Maude - he looks hopeless.

Bautista and Lane DESERVE to make it. Inglett deserves to make it from what he did last year - and he's a left handed bat. Millar has been a bag of balls for sometime. Barrett looks like he's been watching Rios.

I get a kick out of the US announcers continually calling the Dutch, "The Kingdom of The Netherlands." Cool.

Anyone see the Dutch catcher throw a guy our at second from his knees? Kid's got some arm.

Hardball Times has an good article up on Vernon Wells and whether or not he's worth his contract.  It doesn't look good:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/will-vernon-wells-be-worth-the-price/