Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List

Well, it's officially Prospect List season. Three Blue Jays hopefuls make the Top 100 this year, though not necessarily in the order you might have thought.

Ok, the list can be found here.

Orioles' Catcher Matt Wieters edged out Tampa's David Price for the #1 slot. As for the Jays:

Travis Snider ranked 6th, J.P. Arencibia 43rd, and Brett Cecil 72nd.

As you may recall, the Box crew ranked Cecil ahead of Arencibia. Though I don't have my notes handy, I recall Cecil being #2 almost unanimously on our individual lists.

Other notes from BA's list:

- Colby Rasmus ranking #3 overall. Despite hitting 252/351/401 in 90 injury plagued games, Rasmus somehow moved up two slots.

- Tampa SS Reid Brignac's fall from grace continues. After dropping from 17th to 39th between 2007 and 2008, Brignac's 0-for-10 stint in the Majors and .188 average in AAA after his demotion earned him another drop, this time to 78th overall.

- Canadian Brett Lawrie finds himself 81st overall, while fellow Canuck Phillippe Aumont ranks 93rd.

- As for the rest of the AL East, the Rays lay claim to #s 2 (Price), 28 (SS Tim Beckham), 32 (SP Wade Davis), 78 (SS Brignac), and 80 (OF Desmond Jennings).

- The Orioles feature four of their own: #1 (C Wieters), 22 (SP Chris Tillman), 25 (SP Brian Matusz), and 67 (SP Jake Arrieta).

- The Red Sox list lost some lustre with the graduation of Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. That said, they're still fairly well represented by #17 (1B Lars Anderson), 83 (SP Michael Bowden), and 98 (SP Daniel Bard).

- The Yankees' contingent is perhaps the weakest in the division with OF Austin Jackson 36th, Catcher Jesus Montero 38th, and SP Andrew Brackman 92nd. A note on Brackman, though. He's yet to throw a professional pitch despite being drafted in 2007. Brackman underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft and is expected to make his debut this April. Many predict great things from Brackman so he may vault up this list fairly quickly.

So, all that said, feel free to post your own thoughts on BA's list or any others you find out there.

Posted by braden on Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 11:19 AM EST.

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List | 27 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

John Northey - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 12:37 PM EST (#196759) #

I've posted this before I'm sure but it is relevant each year at this time.
Blue Jays in BA's top 100 historically...
2009: Snider (#6), Arencibia, Cecil
2008: Snider (#11)
2007: Lind, Snider
2006: McGowan, R Romero
2005: Hill, League,Quiroz
2004: Rios (#4), McGowan, Quiroz, Gross, Rosario, Hill
2003: McGowan, Werth, Arnold
2002: Phelps, Werth, Gross, Hudson, McGowan
2001: Wells (#12), F Lopez, Lawrence
2000: Wells (#4), F Lopez, Izturis

Top 10 finishes I listed with rank plus showing other ranks for guys who made the top 10. Boy, did BA hate the Jays system last year eh? An average team should have 3 on the list plus a 4th every 3 years. The JP draft era (2003-now) has a total of 20 guys over 6 years, or 3 1/3 per year - dead on average. However, many of the early ones were from the Ash years.

Some guys listed were total flops (Arnold, Lawrence, Quiroz, Rosario) but the 3 top 10's (Wells, Rios, Snider) are containing 2 quality outfielders and a 3rd who looks likely to be. Note how Litsch, Purcey, Carlson, and Wolfe have never been on the list, giving strength to the idea that pitchers are extremely hard to predict.

92-93 - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 12:56 PM EST (#196763) #

It seems that Keith Law and Da Box faithful are the only ones really buying into Mr. Cecil. Let's hope we are right and everyone else is wrong.

braden - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:18 PM EST (#196768) #

Just a little bonus content from the BA chat:

David Cooper ranked 103, just barely missing the cut.

Mike Green - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:19 PM EST (#196769) #

David Golobewski at Fangraphs likes Cecil, too.

braden - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:25 PM EST (#196770) #

According to the By the Numbers report on BA, there are four Canadians on the Top 100. I covered Lawrie and Aumont. Who are the other two? I took another quick glance and couldn't figure it out.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:31 PM EST (#196772) #

Shaun Marcum never made the list, either, despite an excellent minor league career.

BA's bias is pretty clear and consistent, though: You can teach technique, but not raw talent. They're always going to like the guy with the blazing fastball or tape-measure power.

davidcanavan - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:45 PM EST (#196773) #

nick weglarz (58), and mike saunders (65) are the other 2 canadians.

davidcanavan - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:48 PM EST (#196774) #

Kyle Lotzkar might have had a shot if he pitched more innings. His K/9 last year was unreal in low A ball

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:56 PM EST (#196775) #

Jamey Newberg reports that the Rangers have seven of the Top 100 as well as #101.

Is that the most of any organization? Does any team have 0?

braden - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:05 PM EST (#196776) #

Mick,

The A's and Rangers each had seven.

As for the low end, the Tigers, Astros, Padres, and Nationals each had but one.

braden - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:07 PM EST (#196777) #

Ah, thanks david.

I glossed right over Saunders and somehow didn't know Weglarz was Canadian.

davidcanavan - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:19 PM EST (#196778) #

I like weglarz alot as a prospect. Maybe its because ive heard the sound the ball makes when it leaves his bat from a pitchers perspective. The walks are also impressive

Pistol - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:21 PM EST (#196779) #

For subscribers, here's Kevin Goldstein's list and Keith Law's list.

To me it's not surprising that Arencibia is ranked higher than Cecil by Goldstein and BA (especially since Goldstein is essentially a BA guy writing at BP... they probably have the nearly all the same sources). They value tools a little more and Arencibia obviously has strong power, but his future OBP isn't properly reflected. That's not to say they don't recognize it, but I don't think they factor that properly enough when ordering players. I think Law does a better job of translating a player's scouting report into a projection, factoring in probability as well, in his rankings.

Said another way, two players that are identical, but one hits .280/.400/.400 is probably going to be ranked significantly lower by BA/Goldstein than a player that hits .300/.330/.470 since he doesn't have '25 HR power' when the reality is that the first player is more valuable.

So when Law has Cecil in the 40s and Arencibia in the 90s and BA & Goldstein are just the opposite, I'm more inclined to weigh Law's opinion higher.

Of course, I could be off base... it'd be interesting to see a comparison of lists and see how players that were ranked considerably different ended up working out from year's past.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:27 PM EST (#196780) #

At the BA "100 prospects chat" ...on Snider "He is also one of the safest power bets on the list because he's performed all the way up through the minors. He just turned 21 this month." and "Snider mashes."

Ron - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:58 PM EST (#196781) #

I know it's a curse to have the label as future catcher of the Jays, but I'm interested to see what kind of player JP Arencibia develops into. At this point, if everything breaks right, he could be the next Rod Barajas or Miguel Olivio. You're basically looking at solid work behind the plate mixed with a low OBP and some pop with the bat.

Before Arencibia played in the AFL, he was told to work on commanding the strike zone. I didn't watch any AFL games, but based on the stats, it looked like he didn't really improve. I can't find Arencibia's college stats. I'm interested to know if he was also allergic to walking in college. With his kind of power, you would think pitchers would nibble more and as a result, throw less strikes.

Ron - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 03:04 PM EST (#196782) #

I just found Arencibia' stats when he was in College. This was his batting line:

2005: .332/.379/..534
2006: .352/..419/..583
2007: .330/.450/.545

I can't find how many IBB he got, but it appears he became a walk machine in 2007. The power he showed in College, has so far, translated to the minor leagues.

MatO - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 04:12 PM EST (#196787) #

Since everyone is jumping on JPA let pme oint out some good things. He doesn't have minor power like Barajas, he has big time power. I charted his HR's in Dunedin last year and they were hit evenly to all fields. He has power to CF and RF to go along with traditional pull power. Secondly, while he walked about as much as Damaso Garcia, his K rate was not too bad for a power hitter with no patience.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 04:46 PM EST (#196789) #

I'd say that if everything breaks right, Arencibia's ceiling is a heck of a lot higher than Barajas or Olivo. If he improves his plate discipline, if he makes better contact, he could be an excellent player. That's not to say that he will - he could totally flame out at AAA, too, and he's going to have to make some improvements to have any success in the majors. But I don't think BA would rank a guy that highly if his upside was Rod Barajas. (who never placed on any top 100)

Mike Green - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 04:59 PM EST (#196790) #

MatO has a point. When I cited Barajas as a reasonable comp for Arencibia, I did not account for the difference between High Desert/El Paso and Dunedin/New Hampshire. It's a big, big difference.

That said, I have real difficulty in finding a player who succeeded with Arencibia's profile. Almost invariably, catchers have a better handle on the strike zone by age 22 than Arencibia has shown. They usually walk more, and if they don't, they strike out much less. I guess the prototype for Arencibia might be Lance Parrish.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 05:35 PM EST (#196792) #

Benito Santiago?

TamRa - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 07:29 PM EST (#196796) #

At this point, if everything breaks right, he could be the next Rod Barajas or Miguel Olivio. You're basically looking at solid work behind the plate mixed with a low OBP and some pop with the bat.

What????

That said, I have real difficulty in finding a player who succeeded with Arencibia's profile.

I got one for you...Player A is Arencibia, Player P is someone else:

age - level - AB - BB - OBP - SLG

P: 20 - A+ - 412 - 16 - .306 - .405 (FSL)
A: in college

P: 21 - AA/AAA - 420 - 19 - .308 - .400 (E?/PCL)
A: 21 - ....A....- - 228 - 14 - .309 - .377 (NYP)

P: 22 - AAA --- 228 - 16 - .307 - ..316 (PCL)
A: 22 - A+/AA - 510 - 18 - .322 - .527 (FSL/EL)

P: 23 - AA/AAA - 383 - 13 - .336 - .473 (EL/PCL)

In AA, in the Eastern League, at the age of 23, on his second go around in that league (after dissapointing in AAA at 22) Player P put up this line: .322 - .443 - .765 in 228 at bats.

In 262 at bats in the same league last year JPA - at 22 - posted a .302 - .496 - .798 line.

Player P is AJ Pierzinski who has a posted .326/.428/.753 in 11 season in the majors. that, IMO, is JPA's future if he's a disappointment. He could be noticably better.

Mike Green - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 09:12 PM EST (#196797) #

Pierzynski had much better control of the strike zone and much less power than Arencibia. When I plugged into BBRef's Play Index, a catcher (or shortstop or centerfielder) who in his first season between ages 24 and 26 hit .280 or higher, with an OBP of .330 or lower and a slug of .450 or greater, I got precisely one match (Chris Singleton, 1999). I tried playing around with it any number of ways, and even lowered the age to 23 (all that did was get Alexei Ramirez, 2008). Playing around even further, the best I could do was Dan Uggla, 2006.

TamRa - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 12:02 AM EST (#196798) #

Well I wasn't thinking so much about power as the "lack of walks" complaint.

Yes JPA has considerably more power than AJP BUT

I don't know what to say about "control of the strike zone" - JPA has a better history of OBP than AJP at the same point in his career. That he had more hits than Peirzinski seems to me to be irrelevant. Do you have less control of the strike zone because you actually HIT the ball instead of walking? Especially in a player who walks so seldom anyway?

Maybe I should step back and ask you what you mean that Peirzinski has "better control of the strike zone" because I can't see how you get there.

Greg - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 02:00 AM EST (#196802) #

I think he might be referring to k-rates. My quick take has Arencibia striking out in 21% of AB in his minor league career

Pierzynski had an 11.9% k-rate as a 22 and 23 year old at AA and AAA.

Unless I've entirely messed up the math here

Greg - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 02:02 AM EST (#196803) #

Of course I should have been doing K/PA

Which is 18.5% for JP and closer to 10% for AJ

Richard S.S. - Thursday, February 26 2009 @ 11:35 AM EST (#196838) #

Baseball Prospectus 2009 has Travis Snider #5, J.P.Arenciba #41, David Cooper #88 and Brett Cecil #90. Price #2 and Cecil #90; tell me this is not wrong. Any comparison of these two prospects: Brett Cecil - 118 1/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.90 K:9
David Price - 109 2/3 IP, 2.31 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.98 K:9 shows similar stats. Tampa needed to call Price up when they did: http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=tb&playerID=456034 , the Bullpen was hurting and running out of gas. The #2 ranking comes from: http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=tb&playerID=456034&statType=2 . The #90 rating sucks.

92-93 - Thursday, February 26 2009 @ 02:17 PM EST (#196845) #

Prospects lists are based on tools, not results. Someone reading the list 2 years ago prior to the 2007 season would have seen Phillip Hughes, Homer Bailey, and Andrew Miller (and Buchholz further down) in or near the top 10. Each has done nothing at the big league level, while homegrowns like Marcum and Litsch have had stellar starts to their careers. I wouldn't worry about where Cecil ranks in relation to Price - just follow what Brett does this year and concern yourself with that.

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