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On a heads-up by bauxite timpinder, bluejays.com says center fielder Vernon Wells has pulled his left hamstring and is expected to miss at least a month.  Yes, it is the same hamstring he pulled last season.

UPDATE - The Associated Press says Wells is now expected to miss two weeks with the worst-case scenario being he'll have to DH on Opening Day.



I guess working out with a personal trainer really paid off, didn't it?  I wonder if he worked out with these guys.   It appears Travis Snider is now a stone cold lock to make the roster.  Drown your sorrows, er, share your thoughts here on what this means for the 2009 edition of the Fighting Jays.

General manager J.P. Ricciardi spoke with the FAN 590 about Wells' wonky hamstring as well as other topics.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Glevin - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 05:31 PM EST (#196719) #
Well, at least it happened now and not in a month. Wells is looking more and more like he's just an injury-prone player. In the last two years (less, actually) Wells had missed large chunks of time with a broken wrist, a left shoulder injury, and twice with hamstring problems. The upside of this could be that the Jays decide to play him at RF and move Rios to centre. I doubt it, but the Jays could claim that it was to save Wells' hamstring
Ozzieball - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 05:54 PM EST (#196721) #
Using the broken wrist and shoulder cyst to qualify Wells as injury prone is to qualify Doc as the same for having appendicitis and getting struck by a Kevin Millar line drive. This is a single injury that has repeated itself once, and while his girthly form is cause for concern it would be Griffinesque to call Vernon "injury prone" already.
sduguid - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 06:08 PM EST (#196723) #
and so it begins.....

I think the Jays really need things to break right to have a chance.  This is not great news but hopefully he can be ready for Opening Day (or soon after) and avoid his usual slow start.  I had hoped that having the full-time services of a personal trainer might help to avoid this sort of injury.

92-93 - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 07:03 PM EST (#196725) #
Injuring the same hamstring that you pulled last year when you first show up to camp is a sign of extremely poor conditioning. I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that this injury defines him as injury prone. And I really don't want this to turn into a semantics argument over when a player can be considered "prone". It's nothing short of pathetic that he pulls a hammy in the first few days of spring training - was he not working on the part of his body that gave him trouble last year all winter?
zeppelinkm - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 08:14 PM EST (#196729) #

I'm with Glevin in hoping that this leads to more Rios in CF and Wells at one of the corners. They should definitely try. This would be a good, tactful way to protect his ego and get him out of CF. "Well Vern, we really want you in the lineup, so we're going to put Alexi in CF and let him do all that extra running so we can protect you. We REALLY want you in the lineup, you're just that important to us."

Politics should have no place on the ball diamond. Unfortunately, as we saw with A-Rod and Jeter, they play far too big a role.

I'm with 92-93 on this one too, this is pathethic that Wells has reinjured this hamstring already.

Mylegacy - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 08:15 PM EST (#196730) #

Hammy's can be a real b*tch. I remember in a Jays Mariners preseason game in Vancouver years ago Edgar Martinez pulled his hammy and was more or less out all season. Vernons got a REAL problem - when you get recurring injuries to your hamstring you gotta think they'll keep coming back.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rios in center, Lind in left (HOPEFULLY platooned with Patterson who would face lefties - I've gotta' keep working for my man Ryan), Snider in right, with Vernon "the Gimp" Wells at DH.

With 42 days before Detroit's at the Rogers for the opener - at least we've time to get Vernon well enough to DH if nothing else.

scottt - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 08:43 PM EST (#196731) #
Could be a lot worse. At this point, who's the 5th outfielder? Millar? Bautista? Inglett?

Buck Coats was on the starting roster last year because of Stairs.

How does protect a hamstring? Compression shorts?

Magpie - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 08:50 PM EST (#196732) #
Peter Gammons today:

this winter [Wells] hired a trainer from the Athletes Performance Institute in Tempe, Ariz., took the trainer to his home in Dallas, brought him to spring training and will continue to use him all season, for a total investment of between $150,000 and $200,000.

Damn. Just doesn't buy what it used to...
brent - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 09:08 PM EST (#196734) #
IF Vernon can't stay healthy, that contract will be doom for the Jays. Courtesy of fangraphs, Vernon has been worth less than 10 million combined for the last two years. IF this continues, you would have to hope he would just opt out of the contract to avoid a deluge of wrath from fans. Vernon sure has a lot to prove now out on the field. Good luck, Vernon.
Mike Green - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 09:29 PM EST (#196735) #
What can you do to prevent hamstring re-injury?  A proper stretching routine, sufficient warm-up time, and building up strength and endurance of the muscle.   Basic stuff.  If you've got a personal trainer coming to your home in the off-season and you are not in a game situation, a hamstring strain upon arrival at spring training is a bit of an embarrassment...
greenfrog - Monday, February 23 2009 @ 09:30 PM EST (#196736) #
Well, at least JP can start loading up on excuses for the Jays' 2009 performance.
christaylor - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 12:11 AM EST (#196737) #
Wells' hamstring is a problem (I'll wait until a third pull or a pull that causes him to miss some games to call it a chronic injury - which is what people truly mean when they say "injury prone") but, let's not get too caught up in this JP and crew have used injuries to manage expectations before... I get the sense that the "Wells not in WBC" was going to blow-up in a bad way for him and the team and this makes that story irrelevant. If his misses opening day, I'll think differently, but until then... I'll pay attention to the players who truly matter during spring training, the pitchers.
timpinder - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:07 AM EST (#196738) #

In Blair's blog he quoted Vernon as saying, "They're saying it could be scar tissue", resulting from the hamstring strain from the previous season.

I ask this question with admitted ingnorance, but could the MRI show that this is nothing at all to worry about?  I remember when Burnett thought he had re-injured his elbow and it turned out that it was just scar tissue breaking up from his previous TJ surgery.

Jays2010 - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 02:25 AM EST (#196739) #

I hate the fact that (potentially) VW's contract could preclude extending Doc. Let's face it, we need VW to have an all-star first part of the year so we can trade him to a contender who needs a power OF bat - he still has the reputation of a GG winner so maybe if someone sweeps in and takes ManRam from the Dodgers, those old talks of VW to the Dodgers could be rekindled...if he gets healthy and productive. If all this season provides is a chance to watch the kids break in at various points in the year, dumping VW without taking a bad contract back and extending Doc, it'll be almost as good as making the playoffs...the refuge of a Blue Jays fan (sigh).

DRising - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 04:33 AM EST (#196740) #
re. who will be the 5th outfielder, injury story cites gaston as saying that bautista will be playing in the spring training opener, for whatever that's worth

Gaston said Jose Bautista could replace Wells in center field Wednesday when the Blue Jays play the New York Yankees in their spring training opener. Bautista played center in the Caribbean Series this month and has played 133 games in the outfield, 65 in center, during his five major league seasons.



scottt - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 05:38 AM EST (#196741) #
I don't see how they could trade Wells this year and still have a run in 2010. After that, it's a different story.

I think it's embarrassing for the trainer. What's his name again?
SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 09:49 AM EST (#196746) #

Moving Wells to one of the corners and putting Rios in CF full-time has to be a consideration at this point. Vernon's defense already took a hit last season, and it figures to get worse if his hamstring isssues continue to pop up. At some point, putting Wells at DH and having an OF of Lind-Rios-Snider left to right might have to be a consideration, but that is only if Wells continues to get hurt, which remains to be seen.

Wells is not going to opt-out of his contract. I believe his opt-out is after the 2011 season, when he's owed $63 million over the final three years of his contract. No team in their right mind is going to offer Vernon more than $21 million per on his next deal, unless Ricciardi/Godfrey are running another ballclub by then. He will be here until the end of his contract, unless the Jays swing a deal for an equally bad contract (i.e. Michael Young, Barry Zito, etc).

John Northey - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 10:17 AM EST (#196749) #
Never say never to an opt-out.  If Wells has a good 2010 and a strong 2011 (not out of the question) and the baseball economy has fully recovered by then (given the gross spending by all governments we could see some ugly inflation by then for all of us) a $20 million contract could look cheap.  Scary thought eh?  But 3 baseball seasons is a long time and a lot can happen between now and then.  Heck, who though AJ would opt out after 3 years if he had a slightly better than average ERA in year 3 (105 ERA+) plus 0 Cy Young votes (not even a pity 3rd place or 10th place MVP) way back when his deal was signed, then get a richer contract than what the Jays gave him (by $5.5 million a year over another 5 years)?
timpinder - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 12:15 PM EST (#196757) #

Blair reports that Wells' injury isn't as bad as originally thought, and they're now considering 4 weeks a "worst case scenario".  That's the good news.  The bad news (and it's really bad news, especially for a CF) is that because of the nature of the injury Wells will now have chronic hamstring problems.  Blair even mused in his blog that for the rest of Wells' career he'll essentially be, "day-to-day".  Perhaps Wells to LF and Snider to RF might be an even better option than switching Wells with Rios.  It's scary to think that Wells might eventually become one very expensive DH.  Yikes.

http://sports.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090224.wsptvernon0224/GSStory/GlobeSports/home

92-93 - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 01:03 PM EST (#196767) #
"No team in their right mind is going to offer Vernon more than $21 million per on his next deal, unless Ricciardi/Godfrey are running another ballclub by then. "

What if the team offers to hold his current salary (which may be affordable by 2012) but will tack on 2/25 or 3/30 for his age 37-39 seasons? Certainly that's a possibility, and he'd be silly not to guarantee himself that additional money.
Timbuck2 - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 03:12 PM EST (#196783) #
It's not the trainers fault so please stop blaming him.  VW just has to do things a little different than everyone else...

Summed up from VW in a Jeff Blair article:

“They told me from the beginning this is a unique injury and has a chance of coming back, rupturing the tendon and stuff like that. It's just a strain of some scar tissue, so hopefully in a couple of weeks I'll be ready to go.”

Wells said he's been told that the major issue with his injury is that he split the tendon, instead of tearing it laterally.

“Normally, they say when you tear a tendon you tear it straight across and it's something where I decided to do something different,” Wells said, smiling ruefully. “When your body heals itself it's going to have scar tissue, It's in an odd place, you hope it won't re-occur, but most likely it will.”

Glevin - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 07:08 PM EST (#196794) #
"What if the team offers to hold his current salary (which may be affordable by 2012) but will tack on 2/25 or 3/30 for his age 37-39 seasons? Certainly that's a possibility, and he'd be silly not to guarantee himself that additional money."

At this point, it seems incredibly unlikely that any team would want Wells without the Jays eating a massive part of his salary. Adam Dunn who is a much better hitter than Wells and still in his prime, just signed a two-year 20 million dollars contract. Abreu just signed a one-year five million dollar one. Wells has remaining a 6-year roughly-$117 million left on his contract.
timpinder - Tuesday, February 24 2009 @ 07:27 PM EST (#196795) #
Glevin, if you had written that post a couple years ago I'd have argued that comparing Wells to Dunn or Abreu was like comparing apples to oranges since Wells played plus defense at a premium position.  However, right now I agree with you completely.  If the hamstring injury continues to be a chronic problem as has been recently reported and Wells is forced to move to a corner outfield position or, worst case scenario, designated hitter, then he will be completely un-tradable and his contract could handicap the Jays for the next half decade.
92-93 - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 12:45 AM EST (#196799) #
Comparing today's baseball economic market to where it might be 3 years from now does not make any sense. Three winters ago Burnett's 5/55 was seen as outlandish - he got 5/80 this time around. That's nearly a 50% increase and it's not like he did very much during his tenure in Toronto that DEMANDED a pay raise. If you start comparing contracts to Abreu and Dunn it's a lost cause.
Geoff - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 01:02 AM EST (#196800) #
Will there be an article on Canada's entry in the WBC forthcoming? If so perhaps we may include discussion of a certain player.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 09:30 AM EST (#196805) #

How many players make/made $20 million in a season even with the economy in good shape? I can't imagine that list includes even 10 players. A-Rod, Ramirez, Jeter, Giambi, Bonds, Sabathia, Santana, Teixeira.....??? Those are elite players. Even Delgado, arguably the greatest hitter in Blue Jays history, never touched $20 million in a season. So even if Vernon does well in 2009-11, what are the chances that a team pays a non-elite talent like him more than what the Jays already owe him? Unless Wells turns into Pujols over night, I would say the chances of him opting out are somewhere between unlikely and not in a million years (closer to the latter).

Burnett made a non-elite salary for a starter, even when the Jays overpaid him initially. He wasn't one of the top 10 paid players in the league, not even close, so it wasn't unreasonable to assume he would opt-out if he had a breakout season or two. Wells will be one of top 10-15 highest paid players in baseball when his salary starts to kick into the $20M+ range. Hard to improve on that, especially now with his health being a question mark long-term (which may effectively kill his "2-way" status as a player by the end of 2011).

John Northey - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 10:13 AM EST (#196806) #
Except Burnett didn't have a breakout season or two, he had one year where he started over 25 games with an ERA around league average.  Basically he is the same guy the Jays signed a few years ago except with more wear and tear on him.

Baseball salaries have, on average, increase about 10% a year.  $10 million in 1997 was like $25 million today (the White Sox were viewed as crazy to sign Albert Belle to a deal that high).  So $20 million today (2009) will be more like $15 million by the time the 2012 season starts and $12 million by the 2014 season (roughly).  Will Wells in 2012, if he has a strong 2011, be worth the equivalent of $15 million today?  It isn't unreasonable to think he could be. 

As to who made $20 million in 2008 - via Baseball Reference - A-Rod, Giambi, Jeter.  A few others could be argued to be depending on how you allocate bonus money.  All time there are 8 contracts that were over $20 mil a year in annual value - ARod (twice), Clemens (twice), Sabathia, Santana, Teixeira, Ramirez (a second for him is on the way I'm sure).  There are another 12 in the $18-19 million range.  Most have been signed in the past 3 years.  Delgado is not a relevent point as his contract ran out in 2004, well before $20 million annual values started being common (he signed when A-Rod, Manny, and Jeter got their big contracts).  It would be like saying 'Dave Stieb never got $10 million a year so it is crazy to pay that to Halladay' or 'Tom Henke didn't so neither should Ryan'.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 10:55 AM EST (#196807) #

Except Burnett didn't have a breakout season or two, he had one year where he started over 25 games with an ERA around league average.  Basically he is the same guy the Jays signed a few years ago except with more wear and tear on him.

I think most observers will tell you that Burnett pitched a lot better than his ERA indicated in 2008, especially down the stretch against Boston and New York. Take out his April (where I believe he had a finger nail problem), and he had a 3.75 ERA over 192 innings. He also lead the league in strike outs and threw 220 innings overall. That's in the AL East, not the National League. Burnett's value increased dramatically from the time he signed the contract to his opt-out. A flame throwing #2 starter in his early-30's is far more likely to get big dollars in free agency than a corner OF with bad hammy's and non-elite performance (what Wells might be in 2012).

As to who made $20 million in 2008 - via Baseball Reference - A-Rod, Giambi, Jeter.  A few others could be argued to be depending on how you allocate bonus money.  All time there are 8 contracts that were over $20 mil a year in annual value - ARod (twice), Clemens (twice), Sabathia, Santana, Teixeira, Ramirez (a second for him is on the way I'm sure).  There are another 12 in the $18-19 million range.  Most have been signed in the past 3 years.

Out of that list (steroids aside), there are four guaranteed Hall of Famers (Manny/A-Rod/Clemens/Jeter), probably the only starter in this generation young enough to get a chance at 300 wins (Sabathia), a top 3 starter in all of baseball (Santana), a hitter with the 47th best adjusted OPS+ in baseball history (Giambi), and a career .919 OPS hitter still in his prime (Teix). Those are elite talent. Where does Wells fit into that equation? He's not even close.

Even if the market does get better three years from now, how does that eliminate the warts in Vernon's game? You are assuming that $21 million will be the equivalent of $15 million today (for example), but many would argue $15 million today is an overpayment for Wells. Two years after Wells signed his contract, he is now enormously overpaid, and that is despite the fact that he had one of his better seasons in 2008 (offensively).

Delgado is not a relevent point as his contract ran out in 2004, well before $20 million annual values started being common (he signed when A-Rod, Manny, and Jeter got their big contracts).  It would be like saying 'Dave Stieb never got $10 million a year so it is crazy to pay that to Halladay' or 'Tom Henke didn't so neither should Ryan'.

Delgado signed his contract at the height of salaries in the late-90's/early-00's, right before the market went down again in 2002-ish. Those were the days when Chan Ho Park was getting $15 million a season, and (as you mentioned) guys like Jeter and Ramirez got their big contracts. The market for elite position players did not change much from Delgado's contract to Vernon's. It went down a bit after Delgado's contract (2002-04) but went up again after that. An elite offensive player would get $15-20 million back then, with the real top guys in the 20's. That is still the case today (Manny, Teix) and two years ago when Wells was signed. Of course some teams are foolish (Toronto with Wells, Anaheim with Hunter, etc), but I think since the beginning of the decade $20M has been the barometer for elite talent. Delgado came very very close to that, but never touched it. Wells will surpass it from 2010-2014. We are talking one of the richest contracts EVER. In the history of the game.

Whether you feel Delgado is a relevant comparison or not, doesn't change the fact that Vernon's salary is still reserved for the cream of the crop in baseball. He's not even close from a talent standpoint. Sure, salaries could inflate again. Then again, Ramirez signed his contract in 2000. Nine years later, how many players have surpassed him in salary? A-Rod, Clemens, Sabathia, etc? Less than 10, closer to 5. That's accounting for quite a bit of market change since it covers almost a decade.

My point is, if Wells were making $12-15 million a year, then an opt-out was at least a realistic possibility depending on performance. But expecting the market to change so much to the point where A-Rod money becomes a starting point for an 110 OPS+ corner OF in his 30's is a tad premature, IMO.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 11:23 AM EST (#196808) #
I think most observers will tell you that Burnett pitched a lot better than his ERA indicated in 2008, especially down the stretch against Boston and New York. Take out his April (where I believe he had a finger nail problem), and he had a 3.75 ERA over 192 innings. He also lead the league in strike outs and threw 220 innings overall. That's in the AL East, not the National League. Burnett's value increased dramatically from the time he signed the contract to his opt-out. A flame throwing #2 starter in his early-30's is far more likely to get big dollars in free agency than a corner OF with bad hammy's and non-elite performance (what Wells might be in 2012).

If you're picking and choosing which of Burnett's numbers matter - and I'd generally agree with your appraisal - then it's only fair to point out that Wells hit 318/365/566 in the second half, once he was over his injuries. Which is probably just as close to "elite" as Burnett.

The hamstring issue is a problem, no doubt. But 2008 was also the first time three years Burnett pitched 200 innings, and I don't know how many people think he's going to do that on a regular basis. If his elbow problems flare up again and he's limited to ~150 innings a year, he's not going to be worth the money any more than Wells is.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 11:24 AM EST (#196809) #
Good points SK in NJ.  I think a big question is what happened to baseball salaries too.  Since 2001 when the first $20 million contracts were being signed we haven't seen the growth that one should expect.  Based on the historical average of 10% increases we should've seen contracts for (if you put $20 mil as the peak in 2001) $43 million a year by now.  Adjust to 5% and you get A-Rod type levels of $29.5 million for 2009 (he signed a year ago when it should've hit $28 mil a year which is about what he got).

What is very odd is baseball revenues have skyrocketed in those years.  With MLB online doing amazingly well, new stadiums and sources of income, etc. we've seen player salaries drop as a percentage of overall team revenue quite significantly.  It might be time for all of us to adjust our estimates to a 5% raise for players per year rather than 10%, or for a major market correction to come about (ie: salaries jumping drastically).  Adjust to 5% and $20 million in 2012 will be like $17 million in 2012 rather than $15 million.  By 2014 it shifts to the equivalent of  $15.7 vs $12.4 million.  A significant difference which cuts down the odds of Vernon leaving, for good or ill.
AWeb - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 11:29 AM EST (#196810) #
Baseball salaries have, on average, increase about 10% a year.

That may have been true for the past decade(s), but that doesn't mean it will continue to happen. Revenue has gone up with rising ticket prices and higher attendance, with rising franchise values, rising TV deals, etc, etc. None of these things can continue indefinitely. Baseball money can't grow at 10% a year when everything else is shrinking right now. Growth in baseball money can't outpace the general economy forever, even if things were going well (which they are not, and likely won't be for a few years at best).

Sports, with the 24 hour coverage on dozens of channels (just in Canada, if you count the specialty sports channels), and baseball's best friend the internet, is far more massive than it was 20-30 years ago, but it is entertainment...there's only so much of the economy that can be dedicated to not producing anything, as we are all finding out at this point. My only point is essentially that baseball player salaries can't outpace inflation by as much as they have forever.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 12:22 PM EST (#196812) #
"But 2008 was also the first time three years Burnett pitched 200 innings, and I don't know how many people think he's going to do that on a regular basis. If his elbow problems flare up again and he's limited to ~150 innings a year, he's not going to be worth the money any more than Wells is."

I think what people are missing here as well is the Yankee factor. Who is worth $20 million a year to the Yankees is not who is worth $20 million a year to the Jays or Rays or really any other team in baseball. Burnett's contract is very likely to be terrible, but the Yankees can afford to eat it when their payroll $200 million plus. The Jays cannot afford to have anyone on the team making $20 million dollars, especially someone who is not near a superstar. Last year, only three players made more than $20 million and contracts (except for the Yankees) went down this year. The same team that spent an awful $90-million on Torii Hunter, got Bobby Abreu for five million this year. The price of closers dropped dramatically as well. I think it will be a few years before we see salaries rise again at all. I think to the Yankees, Wells is worth about $100 million over the next six years, to the Jays, it's more like 60 million which is about half of what he's going to get paid.

Name-OFers who signed this year
Abreu-1 year/5 million
Dunn 2 years/20 million
Burrell-2 years/16 million
Ibanez 3 years/31.5 million(yuck)
Griffey-1 year/ 2 million
Bradley-3 years/30 million
Anderson-1 year/2.5 million
Rivera-3 years/12.75 million

What is noticable is two things
1) The Phillies made a stupid mistake spending much more mone on Ibanez. (Bradley also was overpaid)
2) In general, salaries have come down a lot.  Very good hitters are making between 8-10 million/year and short-term contracts.In 2007, Aaron Rowand signed for 5 years and 60 million. If he were a free agent this year, I'd expect something like 3 years-22 million. Mike Cameron signed for 1 year/7 million. This year,I'd expect something more like 1 year/4 million.  Geoff Jenkins signed 2 years/13 million. If the economy was the way it is now, that salary would be cut in half.. The thing is that Wells' contract was bad even before this downturn. It's very unlikely that Wells' contract won't be one of the worst in baseball in a few years.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 12:27 PM EST (#196813) #
Agreed AWeb that they can't outpace the rest of the world forever, however we do know that MLB revenues have skyrocketed in the past decade - even Bud admits it.  Over $200 million per team in revenue.

I suspect the biggest reason salaries stopped raising at the same (or higher) pace than revenue is revenue sharing.  Every dollar that is shared is a dollar you get regardless of how much you spend on players.  In fact, the less you spend (thus making your team weaker in theory) the more revenue sharing you will probably end up with.  The Yankees know that they will never (most likely) collect on revenue sharing thus blow their wad each winter.  Thus paying A-Rod $27.5+ mil a year, thus going for 3 free agents this past winter, thus expecting them to keep doing it as those players are worth $25-45 million to the Yankees even if they aren't to teams that collect on revenue sharing.  The Red Sox are similar but have a fully sold out stadium and are running out of new sources of revenue while (probably) getting close to the peak that their die hard fans will pay thus a few million more for players won't bring in as much as it will for the Yanks. 

What is funny (sad) is the Jays should be one of those who benefit from this situation due to being in a large market with a fan base that has packed the stadium whenever a hint of decent play is there.  However, Rogers knows that they can collect a chunk of cash from Bud by crying poor (the currency adjustment) and by sitting back and getting some revenue sharing (or at least not paying into it). 

The players union in the next agreement just might agree to a salary cap and floor as long as it is set at 50% (at least) of revenue (vs the 40 something they get now and the high 50's they used to get).
Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 02:23 PM EST (#196819) #
2) In general, salaries have come down a lot.  Very good hitters are making between 8-10 million/year and short-term contracts.

Sure. But was anyone predicting that six months ago, let alone two years ago when Wells signed the contract? And at that point, Wells was 28 and coming off a 303/357/542 season, which is pretty close to being a superstar, and he'd been very healthy for most of his career.

And yes, he followed up that with his worst professional season. And he followed that up with an injury-plagued season (in which he put up a 121 OPS+). And yes, his contract looks bad.

But most contracts signed over the past few years look bad. Alex Rios will be making $12 million a year, which would give you Dunn & Griffey right now.

I'm not going to say the Wells contract is unambiguously good, but it's a questionable contract that was made much worse by relatively unpredictable circumstances.

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 04:57 PM EST (#196826) #
Alex Rios is full value for $12 million when you include defence (with arm).  He's worth much, much more than that as a centerfielder.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 05:54 PM EST (#196830) #
One does wonder how all these salary adjustment will affect Halladay this winter.  Will he sign for less, figuring that he should take it while he can?  Or will he figure it has to recover soon and wait until the winter of 2010 to head off.  Will the Jays figure on that and trade him first or will they try to sign him mid-season?

Should be an interesting year.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 06:29 PM EST (#196831) #
I don't actually have any problem with the Rios contract. But if the Jays had waited until this off-season to sign him long-term, they might have gotten a substantially better deal: He had a much weaker season, and the free agent market crashed.

I don't think Roy has much to worry about. There will always be someone like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, or Dodgers willing to throw a ton of money at an elite pitcher like him.

Pistol - Wednesday, February 25 2009 @ 08:03 PM EST (#196832) #
$12 million a year, which would give you Dunn & Griffey right now

Except the GM ran his mouth so Dunn would almost never consider Toronto and I'm not sure why Griffey would either, and certainly not at that price.

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