Gerrit Ritt, a fantasy writer for foxsports, writes "David Purcey, SP, TOR: I just love the potential of this kid. It doesn't even seem as if he's throwing the ball hard when he's out there, but he was a strikeout machine in the minors (476 Ks in 468 minor league innings), then put up 58 of them in 65 innings with the big club last year. He got beat around a bit as a rookie, but six of his 12 games were deemed "quality starts" and had four outings in which he allowed either one or no runs. Keep him locked in the No. 3 hole in the Jays' rotation and you may see him drop that ERA closer to 3.80-4.10 with 180-200 strikeouts. That would be a solid person to have on your fantasy roster."

http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/baseball/story/9075414

Alright, I'm excited!

While it isn't in the links above this seems a good place to ask this question the logic might be a bit convoluted but please, bear with me.

Given a recent McLeod G&M post put the reduction in payroll squarely on Beeston and implied that Rogers was willing to keep payroll at already establish levels for the Blue Jays, it seems reasonable to conclude that the decision to cut payroll was Beeston's and Beeston's alone. Only someone who believed that the Jays were not close to competing would cut the Jays payroll. There are/were many free agent bargains to be had and this offseason it was quite easy for a team to get significantly better for $22M (the salaries that might have been paid out to AJ and Thomas if things had worked out differently). Beeston must believe that the talent available for $22M (be it 1 Manny, a pitcher and a Burrell/Dunn/Alou what have you) would not be enough to make the Jays into a playoff team. Beeston must have used some sort of evidence to come to this decision. Therefore I want to know:

1) How many Blue Jays games did Beeston watch in 2008?
2) Does Beeston know the Jays run differential from 2008?
3) Does Beeston know the total of third order wins the Jays had in 2008?

If he doesn't know each of these piece of evidence (and more) he's not qualified to run the team and set payroll. I was quite happy believing that the decision to cut payroll came from corporate headquarters. Bean counting will make people/orgs do very strange things as I'm sure we all know, but this news makes the payroll decision sound like a baseball decision, if that's the case, I'm ticked. 

I think that Rogers/Beeston's problem is that the Canadian dollar has declined since the Jays set their 2008 payroll. I haven't done the math, but I suspect that the Jays are paying roughly the same amount in Canadian dollars that they did last year - it's just that the loonie isn't going as far any more.

A 20% decline in the Canadian dollar is roughly equivalent to the salaries of Thomas and Burnett, I figure.

The dollar disparity is overplayed.  When the 2008 budget was set, the Canadian dollar was at or slightly better than par.  I'd bet the budget was set, though, reflecting market expectations that the dollar would average between 90-95 cents during 2008.  The 2009 budget was set when the dollar was .$80, but it was forecast to average around .85 cents for 2009.

While the spot rates of the Canadian dollar may have been off 25 cents from 2007 to 2008, budgets are set on forecasted and hedged exchange rates, and this difference was in the 5-10 cent range.

That doesn't consider the MLB equalization compensation for a below bar C$.

 

A certain amount of it can be explained by Beeston's (wise) opinion (if indeed this is his opinion) that the needs of 2009 being adressed by multi-year deals would create problems in future years.

That would not explain why, when the market crashed, he did not look for opportunities to ad, for instance, an Abreu on a one-year deal of course. But i said all along that outside of Manny (because he's Manny) and Furcal (because both SS and lead-off are such persistant issues here) that most of the free agents were guys who'd help in 2009 and be at least superfolus in succeding years.

Therefore I want to know:

1) How many Blue Jays games did Beeston watch in 2008?
2) Does Beeston know the Jays run differential from 2008?
3) Does Beeston know the total of third order wins the Jays had in 2008?

If he doesn't know each of these piece of evidence (and more) he's not qualified to run the team and set payroll.

I'd be more interested in knowing what he thinks the team is going to do THIS year (as well as every other team), because last year is nearly irrelevant now.

"I'd be more interested in knowing what he thinks the team is going to do THIS year (as well as every other team), because last year is nearly irrelevant now."

That question isn't as nearly as relevant as his evaluation of the roster when he set the payroll - if he'd set the payroll higher, obviously his and everyone else's perception of what the team was going to do this would be improved. 

That approach/opinion of not stepping on the toes of future years might explain why the main rumors that have been around this off-season were for Furcal (and now, O-Cab). However, just for example, it is hard to believe that a bargain Sheets wouldn't help this squad if signed onto a multi-year incentive laden deal... 2009 might seem to need more help than future years, but I guarantee that the roster will have holes in 2010 and 2011 - having more talent under contract (signed at reasonable value) can only help with that situation.

As an aside, this is a similar situation to what occurred with the Dunn deal for Washington. On the surface one can say the deal makes no sense, given the log jam WAS has with OF/1B, while they a surplus now, obviously that surplus can be parlayed later on if the team needs help in other areas. For a Jays team that signed pitching this off-season the situation to WAS would be analogous - if there's room in the budget and deals to be had, better is better and there's no sense in leaving opportunities on the table because there might be an "excess" of talent on the roster at some point the future.

If he doesn't know each of these piece of evidence (and more) he's not qualified to run the team and set payroll. I was quite happy believing that the decision to cut payroll came from corporate headquarters. Bean counting will make people/orgs do very strange things as I'm sure we all know, but this news makes the payroll decision sound like a baseball decision, if that's the case, I'm ticked.

Christaylor, I'm in complete agreement with you here, and it does sound from the article like Beeston recommended this budget.  While I'm not optimistic about the Jays this year, if they had, for example, Sheets on an incentive-based contract and Abreu DHing and leading off, I'd be much, much more optimistic.  It seems downright wrong not to at least try and field a competitive team, and even if you are 100% certain that this roster, even with 2 free agents, couldn't compete, you could still build for the future by signing players like these when they are at their lowest market value and sell high on them or others at the trade deadline / score draft picks at the end of the year.  Warren Buffet got rich buying when everyone else was afraid too, I'd love to see the Jays follow the same credo. 

Any chance they sign a last minute, still on the table value-type free agent? 

"Oil Can hasn't pitched since 1991, but claims his velocity is back up in the low 90s, and his curveball is back to form. He's always dreamt of carrying on Satchel Paige's legend and pitching into his 60s. Boyd's quote:

""I have nothing to lose, and all a major league team has to lose is 15 minutes," said Boyd. "Give me 15 minutes and I'll show I can still pitch. That's all I want."

I'm almost expecting JP to sign him - if you can lift your arm over your head, JP is interested.

Don't want Dave Cash
Don't need Don Money
Aint got no stash
This Bud's for You

Aint played by A-Rod
Aint played by Bonds
Don't get played by nobody
Make me look like Zaun
This Bud's for you

Happy family day, Ontario Bauxites.

heh.  Now that I'd love to see.  Some club taking a flier on Oil Can Boyd.  He'd be entering his age 49 season hitting 50 on October 6th.  As I recall (and B-R confirms it) he wasn't doing that bad at the end.  A 125 ERA+ in his first healthy season in 1990, then an 83 but largely thanks to more hits, his BB-SO and HR ratio to IP was almost identical to the year before.  An entertainer on the mound - you always got your money's worth when he pitched.  An independent team giving him yet another shot would be the most likely situation.  Last pitched in 2005 in the Can-Am league according to The Baseball Cube with a 3.83 ERA.

I'd give him 15 min before I'd give them to Mike Maroth...