I am ready!  There will be a lot of evaluation and placement to do this spring. If I read about Florida and try really hard and don't look out the window, I can almost believe spring is coming soon. Thanks for your contribution to the cause.

At the risk of being disingenuous ...Is Russ Adams still with the Jays ?  

 He is still showing up as a non-roster invitee to spring training

  http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/team/roster_nri.jsp?c_id=tor 

The Jays removed Adams and Curtis Thigpen from the 40-man rosters.  Other clubs then had the opportunity to claim them for their own 40-man rosters.  If no-one claimed them, which appears to be the case, the players are still part of the Jays organization but now they are generic minor leaguers.

I know this topic is being beaten to death, but Maury Brown's site has a fascinating bit on free agent spending (hey, what happened to the link function?)

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2956:yankees-bust-the-bank-while-other-clubs-play-it-cool-in-free-agency&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

The chart in the article states that the Yankee spent the most by a huge margin at $441,000,000 (40.84% of the total spent by all teams, with the Cubs second at $88,425,000 and 8.19%. The Orioles at ninth with $24,000,000 and 2.22%, the Red Sox at 13th with $19,000,000 and 1.76%, Rays at 14th with $18,975,000 and 1.76%, and the Jays tied for dead last with the Rangers at zero dollars.

I think you can make a pretty strong argument for saving your bullets when the competion in your division spends more than 46% of the whole league, but I do hope this means there's money to be spent elsewhere, or at another time.

Yikes, half a Billion dollars in our division.

I know Lynch, Condotta (both Canadian) and Walter were released. Rivera was a minor league free agent who had a poor season. 

I've just had a GREAT baseball day! 

I ordered my tickets for Opening Day and the rest of the Detroit series in April and the first game of the Oakland series. It'll be my first ever opening day! All five games tickets are in section 121,  just behind home plate on the first base side. I'll be spending two weeks at the Renaissance Hotel at Rogers Center - stayed there in 2006 for a few weeks - great place to see the team and have breakfast with several of the players just down the street at Cora's!

in ADDITION - my BA Prospect Handbook just arrived! Matt Eddy's writing is SO good I can actually SEE the Jay's  players from his descriptions. Oh WHAT A DAY!

Is is April yet?

i'm sad I wasn't able to connect to BB yesterday. I followed links to a frightening article about JP saying they would consider trading Halladay mid next season if the team is losing. he did say the team wasn't looking to trade him, but it really makes me wonder if they'll make the effort to resign him. if ANYONE should be kept at all costs it's him.. i wish the budget wasn't hamstrung by Vernon. If I remember correctly the article states that JP tried to trade Vernon last season but there was no interest.

I'll see if I can find the link again.

The quote isn't as bad as i remember... but i still don't like it.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02152009/sports/moresports/jays_may_deal_halladay_at_deadline__losi_155293.htm

Yeah, not nice that Halladay could be a traded (from the sounds of it ownership has no interest in trading him but JP might).  Still, as I said before, from a pure logic POV it makes sense.  The Jays have his rights for his age 32 and 33 seasons.  An extension would be $20 per (at least) for 3 years (at least) covering ages 34-36 or more.  Those are not prime years, close to them but not prime.  Halladay could still be an ace and I'd prefer him here, but if I was a GM and someone offered me 3 quality prospects plus freeing up $20 mil a year for 2011-2013 it would be very, very tempting and I'd probably do it. 

However, the reality of it is the Jays would be lucky to get 3 B level prospects due to the potential flood of high level players should teams have to cut payroll (Detroit being the prime 'flooder' team).  In that case holding Halladay for 2009 at least makes a lot of sense and if the Jays think they can contend for 2011-2013 then extending Halladay could make a lot of sense (Tampa getting expensive as last years guys hit arbitration, NYY defense on the left side going into the toilet as Jeter & ARod get old, Papi showing signs of age as DH's in the mid to late 30's rarely age well).  I suspect this upcoming winter will be the ideal time to extend Halladay as he'll see the economy tanking for ballplayers this spring and will be open to a cheaper deal to stick around (bird in the hand vs two in the bush which could become a very thorny bush).

It's hard to get too excited about a team that doesn't even believe it itself this year.  From Cito:

"Nobody likes to use rebuilding. That's a bad word. We're not really rebuilding. We're getting ready for 2010."

"It'd be a different ball game (if they Marcum and McGowan were healthy for this season) and I'm pretty sure J.P. and Paul Beeston would've gone out and gotten some people and tried to keep A.J. or even just picked up another hitter.

"But making trades and signing free agents to expensive multiyear contracts didn't make sense because, for next season, we're saying that Dustin will be back in form and we know that Marcum will be back," he added. "Thus, the Jays did virtually no off-season dealing. Right now we need to use all the tools we have to survive against the Yankees, Boston, and this team down here (Tampa Bay)."

Yes we can.... in 2010!

While I don't disagree with the sentiment it seems interesting that the team is so honest about their (lack of) expectations this year.

I think it is a case of knowing that anyone who can put two and two together will guess the Jays aren't going for it in 2009.  Tampa is likely to be high 80s/low 90's, Boston & NY are both blowing their budgets to be mid to high 90's.  Meanwhile we have AJ heading to NY and Marcum out for 2009 with McGowan out for a month (most likely).  I'd have loved to see a free agent signing or two but realistically would they have shifted us from 3rd to wild card or division winner?

I suspect Beeston limiting the budget was his attempt to be fiscally responsible.  Blowing another $20 million would've upgraded our DH and rotation, but by how much is tough to say.  Guess we'll see as the season progresses.

"I suspect Beeston limiting the budget was his attempt to be fiscally responsible.  Blowing another $20 million would've upgraded our DH and rotation, but by how much is tough to say.  Guess we'll see as the season progresses."

The problem was not that the Jays didn't go crazy on free agents-they were simply not going to compete this year regardless, it's that many free agents would have come very cheap. Abreu or Giambi would have strengthened this team a fair bit and only cos t$5million for one year. One of  Brad Penny and John Smoltz also only cost the same. Even if the Jays had to go more than that to land these guys, $12 million for one year commitment to strengthen your team is not much. Look at it this way. If the Jays were willing to pay Burnett 54 million for 4 years, (at least) why could they not spend a fraction of that on bargains. This year, there were a few overpaid players (almost all signed by the Yankees) and the rest are bargains. Obviously Dunn wasn't going to come here, but he was incredibly cheap.

I suspect Beeston limiting the budget was his attempt to be fiscally responsible.

The old chestnut about losing the battle and winning the war can optimistically be applied to Beeston's strategy, if, in fact, his winter of (the fans') discontent is truly a short-term tactic, and not the kernel of a long-term strategy.

Punting 2009 (and yes, Bauxite detractors, I already know your arguments to the contrary) will presumably mean diminished revenue due to drops in attendance and TV viewership. But, I am imagining (hoping?) that Beeston figures a one-year punt can be quickly recovered from in 2010, whereas a longer rebuilding process might be an untenable business model in light of the non-entrenchedness of Blue Jay fans. Chicago may support lovable losers. Toronto won't, unless they're wearing skates.

 

The problem was not that the Jays didn't go crazy on free agents-they were simply not going to compete this year regardless, it's that many free agents would have come very cheap.

From the perspective of a baseball fan who figures to watch more of this team than is reasonable (I am describing myself here, though may well be describing Glevin also, I don't know), I can understand and agree with what I believe to be Beeston's plan, but I also understand wanting to watch a team with just a little more talent win just a little more often, even if it is not destined for the playoffs. This depressed marketplace offered the opportunity to make a one-year commitment without throwing a wrench into a broader strategy.

A $5M one-year DH and a season (or less) of AAA for Snider would have suited me fine.

I think the Jays could be quite good in 2010 (if still a notch below the competition), but is it realistic to expect the team to start spending again in a year (which they'll likely need to do to add a few key parts)? I think it's unlikely. The global economy is going to be slow to recover, and I don't accept that the team's restricted payroll this year is all Beeston's doing. Most companies around the world are reining in costs.

The Jays seem to have four options: (1) trade Halladay now; (2) trade him later (say, at the deadline or next off-season); (3) keep him through 2010, let him walk, and take the draft picks; (4) extend him to a multiyear deal at $20M+ year.

I think we can safely rule out (1). As for (2) and (3), the problem is that the longer the Jays keep him, the less they're going to get in a trade. Halladay has a lot of value right now b/c of the two years remaining on his contract, his reasonable annual salary (about $15M per year), and the fact that he's still in his prime. On the other hand, if the team is serious about contending in 2010, they're going to need Halladay. Whether (4) is feasible depends on the team's projected payroll and strategy going forward. Which seems to be a big mystery around these parts.

personally, I'm loving the low expectations.

We've seen too many horrible starts to the season from this team, obviously burdened by heightened expectations every year, seeing the team out of contention by May only to then turn it on later in the year.

Keep the expectations low.

With the way this team hit with Cito and Geno in charge last year, and with the fact that we still have the best starter in baseball and the best bullpen in baseball, as well as a number of quality young arms with the potential to fill out the rotation effectively, who knows what could happen?

but keep the expectations low.  no pressure.

Couple of things...

Vernon has a "personal trainer" - GOOD. However, in an interview I saw he basically admitted that he had not taken getting in shape a priority - that blows my mind. This guy signs a 7 year 126 million dollar contract and then admits he hadn't taken getting into shape seriously - yikes! The good news of this is that FINALLY he is - could be he has a standout season.

Rios - in the same TV interview (I think it was on TSN's sports round up show)  said he doesn't do much over the winter - just hangs out in Peurto Rico. A guy like Rios IF he put on 10 to 15 pounds of muscle would be  a MONSTER. I can't believe these guys don't seem to care more than most of us slobs that live and die by how they play.

Hill - I've been saying he's NOT the 2nd baseman until he WINS it back. What I'm seeing and hearing from Spring Training has me thinking Aaron is going to be up to the challenge and then some. I'm beginning to think his bulked up size is going to produce at least 15 homers. I PREDICT - Hill will hit 20 homers in 2009.

A little of MyLegacy's perpetual optimism is rubbing off on me, combined with some Steam Whistle pilsners on my day off.  It is the season, after all.  It's certainly an uphill battle, but a playoff berth is not out of reach if some things go well.  The bullpen needs to repeat 2008 (I'm not worried about that).  If Wells is healthy and in his 2003, 2006 or 2008 form, Rios and Hill rebound, Lind shows his minor league numbers were no fluke, and Rolen's September with the new swing was for real, then the Jays' offense should be just fine.  A Longoria type rookie season from Snider would seal the deal.  Halladay will be Halladay, Litsch should be Litsch, Purcey needs to be the good Purcey consistently, and Cecil needs to be Cecil now, or Janssen and/or McGowan need to be fully recovered.  If those things happen, the Jays will be battling neck and neck with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

"Is it April yet?"  (MyLegacy - Everyday)

Hey, I'm going to Spring Training from February 27th to March 3rd, staying in Clearwater and getting to two games. Just wondering if anyone had any tips about the stadium, nearby food, internet places, etc? Many thanks!

Timpinder - I like the cut of your jib.

OK - pitching, our pen is mightier than most teams swords - no need to even go into the details. Starters: we need 162 starts from - Halladay (34 max possible starts), Litsch (34), Purcey (34), Richmond (34), Clement (20), Maroath (20), Janssen (20), McGowan (20), Cecil (25), Romero (25). SO we have 286 POSSIBLE starts to fill 162 ACTUAL starts. I'm happy.

Offensively - Lind (in his age 25 year - the age power starts to really show), Rios (now listed at 6' 5" 215 pounds - hopefully that extra weight will translate into more power), Wells (FINALLY - taking getting in shapre SERIOUSLY!), Snider (we know what he's going to be - he just has to be it starting this year), Hill (extra weight = extra power? I think so!), Rolen (clearly his stats were better after he "developed his new swing" - in September, in 88 at bats, he hit 307/354/523 with 3 home runs!), Overbay (now FULLY recovered from his broken hand should be back to the 20 homer level), Barajas (good for 15 to 20 dingers and JP is JUST about busting down the door) and last and least is Scoots (the BEST SS on the Jays - OK the only SS on the Jays. Even he is not a real black hole.)

The bottom line offensively is that I predict we'll be significantly improved.

We WILL be a BETTER team in 09 than we were in 08 - I'm NEVER wrong...er..hardly ever...

Our problem of course in the rest of the SH*TS in the AL Most. I feel TB over performed last year - however I'm in LOVE with Price. This year I expect them to be pretty near the same as last year. The Yanks are improved pitching wise with a fromidable one through 5 starters BUT AJ and Joba are BOTH huge injury risks, and Rivera starts 09 at 39 years of age, surely the guy has to slow down sometime? - in my humble opinion.  Offensively they've lost Giambi's 32 homers and Abreu's 20 homers but have gained the "Mighty (but overrated)Tex." Boston's got Drew hurt already, Lowell not fully recovered from his hip surgery (will a 35 year old 3rd baseman ever really "recover" from a serious hip surgery?), and unless Bay plays the full year like he did in the 184 at bats he got in 08 for the Sox their offense is going to be down a fair bit. Did I mention Manny doesn't play there anymore?

SO - what's it all about Alfie? What it's about is that we've a chance - maybe not great - BUT - we've got a real chance! Who knows we just might be contenders - perhaps - dare I say it - even Champs. Gosh that felt good. Definitely time to pour me a scotch - a double - single malt of course.

Are you SURE it's not April yet?

Let's play: What If?  Toronto signs Sabathia and Teixeira for the same $ 241.0 M  (Of fair value).  Toronto extends Roy Halladay`s contract 7 years, $140.0 M (Of good value).  (Of course Overbay, Rolen, Ryan and Wells are untradeable).  Shouldn`t make life too easy.

Adam Lind and Travis Snider, which one do you keep, which one do you trade, because you don`t have room for both.  With Teixeira blocking 1B and DH for a long time Snider and Lind cannot spend more than a year in the minors before they start blocking someone else.  David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Scott Richmond, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Davis Romero, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Brad Mills, which 4 or 5 do you keep, which 4 or 5 do you trade, because you don`t have enough room for all.  With both Sabathia and Halladay occupying two spots there is not enough room to keep ALL the pitchers, because they too start blocking others.  If you trade anyone you must get fair value for fair value.

With the contracts of Ryan, Rolen and Overbay expiring in 2010, an emergence for the minors starts a parade of young quality, ready to take the next step.  Between now and then there are many questions that must be answered, before the team irrevocably commits major time and major money into the future.  Ted Rogers passes; World markets crash; Violence becomes more prevalent, more vicious; Valuations change.  No longer can this team waste value before they learn it`s value.  Everyone gets their chance this year and next, beyond this all bets are off.

The Rays signed Adam Kennedy and are responsible for 400K in salary this year. They just keep making brilliant little moves, one after another.  If Iwamura goes down, they've got a first rate sub for peanuts. 

I thought it was a good signing for the Rays (cheap enough) but ...
Kennedy in 2008: 280/321/372 82 OPS+ playing 2B/RF/1B after a 50 OPS+ year in 2007.  87 lifetime and he is entering his age 33 season.  The odds of a rebound to his peak years (96-110 OPS+) is very, very slim.  He is a backup now who can only cover 2B and the defensively challenged positions (ie: 1B/RF/LF/DH).  I'd much rather have Inglett (98 OPS+ and can play 3B or SS in an emergency) , Scutaro, and Bautista (91 OPS+ lifetime, age 28 season).  McDonald...well...you do need someone who can play a strong SS defensively (although his contract is much too high at $1.9 million given what he brings to the table).

Off topic: someone deserving got a pile of dough.

"A $5M one-year DH and a season (or less) of AAA for Snider would have suited me fine."

I, for one, disagree with this, and have explained why numerous times. Despite many believing that payroll budget and draft budget are mutually exclusive, I simply don't believe that to be true (and if they are, it's terrible accounting). I'd much rather pump that $5m into the draft and international signings than pick up a useless DH bat for a team that isn't one bat away from contending. To me there is nothing worse than mediocre organizations spending cash on veterans that do nothing but make a non-contending team a win or two better (see : Washington Nationals, Adam Dunn, or the Pitssburgh Pirates of this decade).

I should clarify the above - I'm completely in favour of Snider staying in AAA to start the season, just not because we are paying someone else to do his job. The Jays already wasted 2.5m on Bautista, and I'd rather see him and Inglett (or minimum salaried vet pickups) platoon the DH spot if Snider isn't ready to go. And I really hope the Jays aren't rushing him and that he is only brought north if he really deserves it - there is no reason to start the clock early in 2009.

Inglett, who is a valuable player, is different from Kennedy.  Kennedy is still an above-average defender, it seems, while Inglett is a better hitter. 

My point wasn't to compare the Rays and Jays.  The Rays are likely to be fighting it out with the Red Sox and Yanks; it is moves like this one that increase their chances.  I guess if Pedroia went down, the Sox would go with Lowrie and Lugo in the middle infield.  If Cano went down, who would the Yanks' Plan B be?  Someone a fair piece behind Kennedy, I am quite sure.

I'd much rather pump that $5m into the draft and international signings than pick up a useless DH bat for a team that isn't one bat away from contending. 

Given that my $5M was fictitious, I'm wondering if your dichotomy isn't a false one. The organization has not announced that it has $5M to spend and has to decide how to spend it (i.e., DH or draft).

I decided that the Rogers' coffers could withstand being $5M lighter to make me the tiniest bit better entertained, thus my request for a DH. I can extend my fiction to $10M and you and I can both get what we want.

A good question is what Beeston did propose to Rogers for the budget in 2009.  It is certainly possible he pushed for an $85 million payroll and an expanded draft budget and/or an expanded international budget.  We won't know those two figures until after the draft and as international free agents sign up with various teams.  Given Beeston is very, very smart I suspect he sees the value in the draft and international signings - how the first 3 years a player is in the majors you pay them the minimum or close to it, followed by arbitration which tends to be cheaper than free agency (with this year being the exception).  A $10 million bonus to a player who might be worth $30 million+ in their first 3 years in the majors is an extremely good investment - as long as more than 1 out of 3 of those bonus babies don't flop of course.  Quite easily an extra $3-5 million in the draft could be worth $20-30 million in future value vs signing a DH to a $5 million deal who might produce $10-15 million in value.  There also might be more cash for the minors in the way of trainers/coaches/etc.

Like I said, these are things we really can't tell until after the draft and if we see some international players signed to big bonuses.  Lets hope, as I do want to cheer this team on in the 2010's and 2020's :)

I guess I should've added examples. 
From FanGraphs (not perfect, but gives an idea)...
McGowan: 4 seasons (2 full) worth $27.7 million for the minimum each year
Marcum: 4 seasons (2 full) worth $17.5 million for the minimum each year
Lind: 3 seasons (all partial) worth $3.6 million for the minimum each year
Rios: first 3 seasons worth $22.1 million for about $1 million total

Heck, Snider in his brief time in the majors is listed at $1.5 million of value for the minimum.  Easy to see how value can come out of this method quickly.  And none of these guys were ranked as high end prospects when signed iirc (Rios was viewed as a 'cheap' pick).    Yeah, the draft is where you want to spend your money.  Although I'd be spending more on getting the best scouts as finding 2nd round or later talent (such as Orlando Hudson who was in the 40's) is where you really make hay.