A-Rod may have tested positive in '03. I'm not sure to be happy or upset about this.  We are never going to know how far and wide these steroids actually went, and that scares the crap out of me.

this is a far less defensible contract than Bautista's, IMO.

Not that Bautista isn't overpaid, but one can make at least a weak case for how he fits onto the team. Camp is the eighth man in a seven man pen. And that doesn't count Wolfe nor the other several players (including Beam now) who are likely able to do anything Camp can do.

Just goofy that we tendered this guy.

I like Kemp. I enjoyed watching him pitch.

We did not get CC or Tex, nor I suspect will we get Manny. Our team has lost two of our three best pitchers. We are not being given the money we need to vastly improve the team. In fairness MOST teams are cutting back - some more so than the Jays. The ONLY "league leading" type strength on the team is the bullpen. People will under perform, people will get injured. I am a "happy Camp-er" with this signing.

Rodriguez' steroid of choice was apparently primobolan, a more expensive steroid designed specifically to avoid detection through urine tests and avoid detection through obvious bulk muscle development. He used it in combination with a second steroid.

Arod of course, never thought steroid use was a big deal or cheating. That's why like all of the ped guys, he was so candid about his steroid use and why he paid extra to try and beat the detection screening.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071216&content_id=2327912&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Dear Media:

Nobody really cares (I'm talking about enough to be turned off the sport) about who takes/took performance enhancing drugs so stop shoving these stories down our throat.

Sincerely,
Baseball Fans

Nobody really cares (I'm talking about enough to be turned off the sport) about who takes/took performance enhancing drugs so stop shoving these stories down our throat.

I don't agree, Ron, and that's a red herring. It is presenting a false choice to say that I have to either ignore steroids or ignore baseball. I will do neither and I feel totally justified in doing so.

I really care and this is a bad day for baseball.

Also: What ComeByDeanChance said.

Mike D, I understand where you are coming from.

I just feel like the media has made these stories bigger than they really are. Heck the A-Rod story is the main story over at cnn.com right now. I've read so many stories regarding performance enhancing drugs in baseball that I simply don't care anymore. I can't speak for everybody but I know several others that feel the same way.

A-Rod? Naughty boy.

Unlike some - I care. It is CLEAR that, in some instances at least,  roids turn elite athletes into; "Oh my Gawd, did you see that!" athletes. Ben Johnson comes to this Canadian's mind. I feel REALLY sorry for the HONEST player that, had he been juiced "woulda' been a contender."

HOWEVER, I now believe that PROFESSIONAL sports are this ages answer to the Gladiators and like the Gladiators I'm all for letting the stupid bastards do what they want. If YOU want GLORY and RICHES more than testicles and living past 50 then - what the hell - go for it. I REALLY enjoyed watching  Mark McGwire bat - I admit it - I knew he was juicing and every time he came up to bat I stopped and watched.

The only HONEST way to level the playing field is to open it up to whatever shit they want to put into their bodies. As to the HONEST players - those that would like to keep their testicles and live past 50 - join a good Independent League Team and play for the love of the game.

I generally agree with Ron that steroids are overblown, but it's hard not to say this shouldn't be a story.

ARod is one of the people Canseco named, correct?  As hard as it is to believe him he seems to be proven correct again and again.

And given ARod's 'I got it' actions a couple years ago it's not that hard to believe he'd do something like steroids if he was comfortable being unethical with everyone watching.

According to this Will Carroll interview, performance-enhancing substances are still around and evolving:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8470

I would be really annoyed if I were a marginal or part-time MLB player who never used anything illegal--maybe someone like Josh Phelps (assuming he's always been clean)--knowing that one reason I just missed the cut was because a significant proportion of the league was using performance enhancers.

I'm not sure of the appropriate place to put this, but we're going to Dunedin with another couple from March 6th - March 14th, staying in a condo and catching some games at Knology.  It's our first time there and I was hoping to get some advice from those who have been there before, regarding sites to see, restaurants and clubs worth visiting, etc...  I thought Batter's Box would have some regulars.  E-mails welcome if you have any advice.  Thanks.

It's not Knology anymore - they changed the name back to (Grant Field/Dunedin Field?? - not sure).

I was going there this year BUT plans have changed. I'd like to hear what some of the Boxites that have been there have to say about your question.

I'm not sure of the appropriate place to put this, but we're going to Dunedin with another couple from March 6th - March 14th, staying in a condo and catching some games at Knology. It's our first time there and I was hoping to get some advice from those who have been there before, regarding sites to see, restaurants and clubs worth visiting, etc....

Dunedin's a bit of a sleepy borough. It's not known for its nightlife. Nevertheless, you and your wife should be able to find lots of enjoyable things there.

1. The Pinellas Trail runs right through. It's a bicyling/walking trail that goes from much farther north to St. Pete's. You can either rent bikes at a little shop on the trail in Dunedin just north of the ballpark, or if you're a bit more motivated, buy second-hand ones for cheap at a Sally Ann or Goodwill.

2. There are two state parks nearby, within biking range. One, Honeymoon Island, has an osprey sanctuary. When you're at the park, look at the top of the cement post on the third base line, and like most tall things without foliage, there should be an osprey nest on top. Also look in the outfield lights. The osprey sanctuary is a good morning walk.

3. There's a nice winebar on the main street, just west of where it meets the Trail.

4. If you're looking for nice restaurants, there are 3 I can think of. 1 is in Clearwater, to the right after the causeway but before you get to the beach on Island Way. It's called the Island Way Grill. It's upscale, romantic and a very good wine list. Better, you can buy your own wine at Total Wines in Dunedin, a huge boxstore with more wine than the LCBO at half or third the ripoff LCBO prices. A second is Eli's BBQ in Dunedin, where you sit outside on picnic tables. They only bbq a couple of days a week and the lines aren't short. A third is Aunt Lee's Soul Food restaurant in Clearwater at N. Myrtle.

Assuming that the Jays open the season with:

Halladay
Litsch
Janssen
Purcey
Richmond(most people seem to agree with this but I'm not sold on him)

Then you have the following bullpen:

Ryan
Downs
Accardo
Frasor
Tallet
Wolfe
Carlson

Almost all of these guys are guaranteed a roster spot because of past experience. One could argue against Accardo, but I find it had to believe that a guy who used to be your full-time closer (with success) and who before he got injured was your primary setup man would be shunted aside. Wolfe has had two fantastic seasons so it would be hard to cut him, Frasor contrary to what most Bauxites believe is a very good and preventing inherited runners from scoring, and despite Carlson's season from nowhere he was to good in very good situations last year to be cut.

It's possible that Wolfe and Tallet will be competing for the last rotation spot with Richmond. So there's the possibility that there might be an opening in the bullpen.
So contending for any bullpen spot are:
T.J. Beam
Bullington (also competing for the rotation spot)
Brian Burres (a.c.f.t.r.s)
Shawn Camp
Hayhurst
Brandon League
Richmond (a.c.f.t.r.s)
Davis Romero (a.c.f.t.r.s)
Matt Clement(a.c.f.t.r.s)
Mike Maroth (a.c.f.t.r.s)
Ken Takahashi
Brett Cecil (a.c.f.t.r.s)

It's going to be very interesting to see how this pans out! I can't wait for spring training games. There'll be a reason to watch this year!

Btw, I'm assuming that Purcey will be given the number 4 slot outright because he's at that point in his career where he has done everything he needs to at the minor-league level and must sink or swim at the major-league level (similar to McGowan's situation in 2007).

MGL has a useful piece on fangraphs about the scooping element of defence for first baseman.  Lyle Overbay is a leader and his contributions in this regard are worth roughly  2.5 runs per season.

I would definitely expect a trade towards the end of spring training... at the very least, a surprising Reed Johnson-esque release or a Chad Gaudin-ish trade for a PTBNL.

I would think that League is ahead of both Accardo and Wolfe on that depth chart.

The pen this year is very nuts.
Locks...
Ryan, Downs
Virtual locks...
Tallet, Frasor
Showed what they can do in '08...
Carlson, League
Recovering but if healthy/effective a lock...
Accardo
Deserve a slot but numbers game in play...
Wolfe, Camp
Vet's coming in...
Beam, Bullington, Burres, Hayhurst, Maroth, Clement, Takahashi
Kids...
Cecil, Romero's, etc.

A few of these guys are only fighting for the rotation imo and will be in AAA or released if they don't make the rotation (Clement, the kids, ...).  I don't know who still has options, but Carlson could be sent down if he still has them in order to keep someone who does not early on (ie: Wolfe, Camp, Accardo who I think have all used up their options).  I count 9 guys who should be in the pen if healthy before factoring in the new old guys and the kids.  We'll probably get a surprise or two in the spring if injuries don't take over or a option trade doesn't happen (ala the Werth for Frasor trade years ago - hmm... could we do that one again?  Doubt Phillies would go for that).

Sheldon, IMO , you are grossly over-rating Wolfe's chances and neglecting League.
Cito used League a lot down the stretch last year while Wolfe was squeezed out. Unless Brandon blows up again I can't see him not making the cut.

If nothing else, this post has reminded me of one very important fact:  the Blue Jays' third uniforms are ugly as sin.  Not that the first and second are anything to write home about, either...

I like League better than Wolfe, it's just that I think Wolfe's work the past two years can't be ignored. For that reason and that alone, I would rank Wolfe ahead of League.
Looking back on monthly splits, I can see that League was leaned on heavily in August and he performed well. Wolfe however was hurt a couple of times too.

I just think that tendering Camp shows that J.P has plans for him in the bullpen which logically can only happen via a trade. IMO, Camp is a replaceable minor league reliever (sometimes they work out) and not really a necessary piece. To me, it's between Wolfe and League for the last spot in the 'pen. And the only way to work this out is to deal Jason Frasor. I think he's going to be the odd man out.
The other contenders as clearly outlined by Northey, the "Vets", are really not gonna get a sniff unless they absolutely wow.

I think that Cecil should be paired up with Janssen as a one gets 5innings, the other gets 4 innings, as a way of stretching them out. The moment one has enough gas to go 6 innings, we should immediately give them both their own rightful spot in the rotation. This process should take about a month or two after which point we can truly decide whether Purcey has shown enough in those two months to warrant a spot. If he has, then we're in an awesome problem because McGowan will be back by then.

I keep forgetting about Janssen.  I figure he'll be in AAA to start the season then brought up if injury/ineffectiveness hits anyone.  Wolfe I could see taking the #5 starter slot quite easily as he was being shifted to a starting role in the minors (in theory) .  Thus seeing a pitching staff of...
Rotation: Halladay/Litsch/Purcey/Wolfe/Richmond (Richmond to AAA when McGowan is set, Janssen #1 to call up)
Pen: Ryan/Downs/Tallet/Frasor/League/Carlson/Accardo with Camp #1 to slip in for injury/ineffectiveness

Cecil and the kids will have to earn their slots or hope for someone to get injured.

Lets hope someone out there needs a reliever and has a right handed hitter they want to clear out or a guy with options so we can keep as many players around as possible.

Hmm.... G and IP under Cito in September (once he knew who he had) in games played order...

Carlson: 13 - 13.1 IP
Tallet: 10 - 12.1 IP
Ryan: 10 - 10 IP
League: 8 - 7 IP
Downs: 7 - 7 IP
Frasor: 4 - 3.1 IP
Wolfe: 3 - 4.0 IP
Camp: 3 - 1.1 IP
Also: Parrish for 4 relief and 1 start (gone now).

So, what does that tell us?  Cito loved Carlson, Tallet, and Ryan with League and Downs well mixed in.  Downs and Frasor had wildness in Sept (6 walks each plus ERA's over 6) but I don't know how much that will influence things this year.  I suspect the usage does tell us that Cito picks his 5 man pen and goes with it while #6 and #7 are going to be bench warmers. 

In August the big 5 were Downs/League/Ryan/Carlson/Frasor all getting 9+ games and 8+ IP while Camp 6 games and 6 2/3 IP and Tallet 4 games and 4 IP. 
In July 7 guys got between 7 and 10 games in led by Downs & Carlson at 10 each. 

Seems from the numbers Cito went from using the full pen (ala Gibbons) to a core 5.  Good news for Carlson, Tallet, and League but bad news for Frasor, Wolfe and Camp.  I suspect Cito would like to cut back to a 6 man pen with lefties Carlson/Tallet/Ryan/Downs and right hander League with Camp/Wolfe/Accardo fighting it out for that last slot. 

Also of note: In September (expanded rosters) Cito used 12 hitters for 30+ AB's, while 3 more reached double digits in AB's.  13 in double digits for games plus Mench at 9 and Thigpen at 6.  So his 15th hitter (#6 off the bench) played in more games than the #6 guy in the pen that month (Frasor).   The 14th hitter vs #6 reliever is Wolfe vs Mench (or Wilkerson) depending on Games or PA's (Frasor faced 20 batters in 3 1/3 IP vs Wolfe's 14 in 4 IP).  Wolfe's 3 games vs Mench's 9 or Wolfe's 14 batters faced vs Wilkerson's 13 PA's.  An interesting bit of info eh? 

Errr... the last bit should say 14th hitter vs #7 reliever.

Tao linked an article from a TN paper (how do they find these things?) Frasor went down to get Doug Bochtler to teach him a change-up (don't laugh, apparently he taught it to Hoffman and Santana) and Bochtler says that in his opinion it's game ready now. That Frasor picked it up in just a couple of days.

Of course, all players make happy noises but the book on Frasor (even according to Frasor) was that he didn't have a pitch to take hitters off his fastball and if he's really found that, it's yet another reason to have confidence in the bullpen.

It will be interesting to see if the club tries to lengthen Frasor out, with a view to converting him to a starting role.  The new pitch conceivably could give him a repertoire that would work. He has looked profoundly uncomfortable coming out of the pen over the last couple of years; a change of role might help his mental approach to pitching.  If the club intends to go with a 5 man rotation, I can think of worse options bearing in mind the crowded pen and the opening(s) in the rotation.

For what it's worth, BP simulates the Jays to go .500 this year, although I'm not sure all the kinks have been worked out.

Matt Bush Former number one picked up.

HERE is the draft day story from MLB

"We are very excited about Matt Bush," said director of scouting Bill "Chief" Gayton. "He's a player that we've watched for several years now and we project him to perform at a high level once he reaches the Majors. Bush has one of the best arms I've ever scouted. He's a player who's a local talent that you rarely get an opportunity to bring into your system."

PLUS an interesting video of him showcasing his pitching.

Perhaps he just needs a change of scenery?  Josh Hamilton part Deux?

Well the video is on the draft day page anyways...

I won't deny a certain level of intrigue with the K numbers he posted in that tiny sample, but I have serious concerns about the personality issues.

The question is, does he or will he have pitches other than the impressive fastball to fool hitters at a higher level. If I heard a report that he had an impressive change-up or slider or curve, I'd perhaps begin to consider him a nice pick-up.

BP has the Jays going 81-81 despite a +37 run differential. Very interesting. If the Jays fall substantially short of their first-order Pythag yet again this year, I will be surprised, but BP's computer is a lot smarter than I am.

What is interesting at BP's projected rankings is that they have a total of 2 AL teams outside the east reaching 500.  The A's at 82-80 and Cleveland at 84-78. Meanwhile the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all at 90+ wins.  Ugh.  In the AL the Jays come in 3rd for runs allowed, behind the Red Sox and Yankees (really?).  The offensive is expected to be very poor, just 5 runs out of last in the AL and over 100 runs behind everyone else in the AL East.

Actually Will if you had read the draft day report he apparently had a Plus Curve coming out of Highschool.  In the Video link on the page he is shown showcasing all his pitches and the curve certainly has some bite.

The 5-foot-11, 170-pound right-handed hitting infielder also can pitch, hitting the gun in the low 90s with his fastball and is reported to have a plus curveball.

The offensive is expected to be very poor, just 5 runs out of last in the AL

And given that Seattle's park suppresses scoring the way it does, BP's model effectively ranks the Jays' offense dead last.

 

 

Maybe. There's also the AL East factor. On paper, this is going to be an ungodly difficult division to hit in, with Toronto playing 30-35 extra games against the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees (and Orioles) that the rest of the league won't.

You could make the case that the BP projections have the Jays pegged as the fourth-best team in the AL, going 81-81 in their absurd division when the best team in any of the other two divisions is going 84-78. I'm curious to see whether the projections have Marcum out, Hill bad and McGowan and Janssen adjusted to reflect that they're coming off injury. If they are accounting for all that, that's remarkable.

Maybe. There's also the AL East factor.

True enough. The Jays will be in a lot of games versus pitching staffs that BP's model really likes. That may well have more of a run dampening effect than Safeco will on Seattle.