I wouldn't mind Millar as a platoon 1b/backup corners/DH type off the bench.

A+ for the headline!

And a question, really I don't know -- why is that Tallet''s nickname?

Also re: Sports Weekly, it wasn't great when it was Baseball Weekly...but I've long since stopped reading.

Mick - Wolverine is a Comic book/ Cartoon/ Movie Character with big sideburns.  Much like Tallets.

Of course Elvis was known for the same.  I think he looks more like Elvis than Wolverine myself....

Thanks, TB2. I used to be a huge Marvel/X-Men guy ("Secret Wars" era) so I wondered if that had something to do with it. But I didn't think to go look at a photo of Tallet for sideburns. That's why my last name starts with "Doh!"

Just heard on the FAN that The Blue Jays DFA'd Russ Adams to make room for a pitcher from the Pirates (very sorry for the severe lack of information on that...didn't catch his name in time, only that he was 2-2 with a 4 something ERA).

Ok, it was TJ Beam from the Pirates. 

Well, if you're not going to be good, you might as well increase the entertainment factor.

I’ve got nothing against T.J. Beam, from what I can see his numbers suggest that he could very well be at least an average major leaguer, but I really fail to see the logic of continuing to stockpile all of these relievers. With Beam, we now have an astounding 18 relievers on our 40-man roster (Accardo, Beam, Bullington, Burres, Camp, Carlson, Castro, Downs, Frasor, Hayhurst, League, Murphy, Perez, D. Romero, Ryan, Santos, Tallet, Wolfe). Admittedly, some of these guys (Burres, D. Romero, Bullington) are tweeners, and could be used as either a starter or reliever. But seriously, why would we devote nearly half of our roster to relievers given that it was our greatest strength last year, and everyone from last year’s pen (except for minor contributor John Parrish) is returning this season?

If you really think these guys can contribute at a major league level, why wouldn’t you either trade some of our current relievers to shore up depth in our weaker areas or, given we’re operating in a tight budget, let a player like Jason Frasor walk and pay one of these other guys half his salary to fill his middle reliever role? This seems like a pretty inefficient allocation of resources to me.

I would like to see what the over/under is on a GM taking a flier on Russ Adams is.

There are always those players who flounder in the organzations that picked them, who then turn around and have successful careers elsewhere.  I have feeling Russ is that type of player.

Beam me up, Scotty.  Back on the beam.  The Beam-er.  Not to be confused with this J. Beam.

Now that I got that out of my system, a former Jay is the reason Beam is here according to bucsdugout.com.  His full name is Theodore Lester Beam.  From the various scouting reports, he's a 6-7, 200 pound righty who throws a low 90's fastball, slider and split-change with his slider being his big pitch.  He made his ML debut in '06 with the Yankees and earned his first win on June 20th (my b-day!).  Isn't Wikipedia great? 

Wait, Beam is a righty?

That doesn't make any sense. I thought the Jays just wanted lefthanders.

I smell a trade..... sooner or later.  Unless the Jays think  a 15 man pitching staff is the way to go.

I agree - are there any teams out there right now that could use BJ and Downs in a package?

Me thinks there's a trade brewing too... I think the Jays might be making a Jason Frasor trade similar to the Gaudin one a few years back... I think it's purely to shed salary since Frasor's pretty damn good contrary to the opinions of some Bauxites.

It just seems to me that his spot in the pen appears replaceable by the like of League or Camp or one of the many guys competing for a bullpen spot.

I'll miss Frasor and I hope that we'll get something of substance out it!

On an aside, Ben Sheets may have to do elbow surgery, I don't think it's TJ but it's supposed to require months of rehab if he does do surgery. If I'm J.P., I would try to sign him to a 3-4 year deal for something like $10 mil a year. It's a gamble no doubt but I think it's a good one if it pans out and you've got to take chances to succeed in the AL East!

I'm unsure, undecided, of two minds, hesitant, underwhelmed and ambivalent about Cowboys - even when they bring their own "up." So I'm changing the subject...

Mighty Mouse and the Wild Thing.

Consider 2nd baseman Oliver Dominguez, a 5' 9", 156 pound 19 years old (during the 08 season) who hit 305/404/466 in 266 at bats with 5 homers at the Dominican Summer League Blue Jay's 2 Team. Interestingly, Mighty Mouse's 5 homers LED the team! Not bad for a little guy, eh?

Also consider, Kenllie Santana a 6' 192 pounder, a team mate of Oliver, who is a LHP and was 18 in 08. His ERA was 3.21 in 28 innings he gave up just 14 hits and struck out 40!! 40 strikeouts in 28 innings - atta go Kenllie! Too bad he also gave up 40 BB's - our very own Wild Thing.

I smell a trade..... sooner or later.  Unless the Jays think  a 15 man pitching staff is the way to go.

JP has had puzzling rosters out of spring before which didn't amount to much -. we've seen, too many relievers, too many catchers, too many middle infielders on the roster before.   That said, there are a lot of good players out there and a few which should come very cheap and some teams could still make a big noise next year with a few moves and good one year contracts.  I'd like to see Pedro Martinez in our rotation, maybe even Ken Griffey if he is willing to start early in the year and play the veteran presence for the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm all for signing Ken Griffey too. He rakes against righties. I'd like to see us add Moises Alou too. The man kills lefties.
These two can form our two-headed DH monster.
Move Lind to 1B and keep Snider at LF.
I wonder if we can also sign Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede too.
Yeah, throw in Pedro Martinez as well.

Yes, I know I'm getting a bit carried away. But I think that all of these guys should be on our radar. I'm not saying give them lucrative offers. I'm saying give them a low offer and see if they bite. For example, offer Griffey $3mil and see if he'll take it. I think that if we wait until a week into March and these guys are still available, they can each be had for less than $3 mil.

What's up with this market! Orlando Hudson's still out there!

I'm all for signing Ken Griffey too... He rakes against righties. I'd like to see us add Moises Alou too. The man kills lefties.

The Jays are not realistically going to compete in 2009 so stocking up on brittle 40-year olds would not seem to be the soundest way to build for the future.

I wonder if we can also sign Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede too.

Because Cabrera was offered arbitration, he'll cost the team that signs him a first round pick. That and his salary demands are making him unattractive to many would be suitors. As for Crede, the team already has a fragile third baseman. Why would they want two?

Clearly the tonic for many to a chilly February is the hot stove world of treating the home nine like a fantasy team. But the Jays are not a few small pieces away from being a contender, so spending money on broken down players the wrong side of 30 would seem an extravagance both in terms of money and major league playing time, a valuable currency that is often overlooked.

While I totally agree with your statement that for the Jays "spending money on broken down players the wrong side of 30 would seem an extravagance both in terms of money and major league playing time" but I don't agree with the statement, that you and many others have offered that, "The Jays are not realistically going to compete in 2009".

Each an every year teams surprise, was TB a realistic contender in 2009, were the Twins? Or on the flip-side were the Tigers, Indians or Yankees? Good surprises tend to come from teams that when we all look back at the previous year (in this case 2008) we all slap our foreheads and say, "Oh how did I miss x, y, z." the 2009 Jays are just that sort of team with their 2008 stats showing that they had an excellent run differential. Not only that, but if the Jays offense scored as many runs (754, IRC) as they did in 2007, in 2008 (when their run allowed was 610), their pythagorean records would have been 96 wins. No one thought the 2007 offense was a juggernaut. The 2009 pitching isn't as bad as people make it out to be. Marcum and Burnett aren't the huge losses that people make them out to be.

I'm not saying that the Jays will compete, but it is silly just to write off cheap improvements to the 2009 team because the team won't "realistically compete"... the playoffs aren't made on paper.

Finally, I get the sense that JP has been quiet this off season partly out of the desire to have something left in the budget tank at around the trade deadline to add pieces. The past three years, he's spent to the limit in the off-season and had 0 ability to take on salary. If the team surprises, I wouldn't be surprised to see salary added mid-season.

Griffey and Alou would be fine acquisitions if you could get them for $5 million total on 1 year contracts.  Good luck with that.  It's not so much their age, as the expected cost relative to performance and the team's limited budget.  This club would have use for a DH to give Snider more development time.  Burrell was the guy who could have delivered the goods at a reasonable price.

Why bother with Crede when we have Bautista?  Crede is a lifetime 257/306/447 hitter who is entering his age 31 season.  Bautista is 239/324/398 hitter who is entering his age 28 season.  Crede is a positive defensively vs Bautista who isn't but this isn't an improvement that will shift the team by more than 1 win over the season.  Of course, it also adds emphasis to why Bautista was not a good guy to hold onto as he was replaceable but what is, is and there is no point in wasting cash on marginal improvements imo.

Now, Alou could be tempting as he'd compliment our LF/DH/1B situation perfectly and if he is available for under $3 million (ideally a minor league contract with spring invite and salary based on days on active roster) I'd say go for it.

Chris - while Marcum and Burnett might not be "huge losses" (which I disagree with, they are devasting losses), who is going to replace what they provided?

Who is going to give the Jays the 375 innings of 114 ERA+ that Marcum and Burnett provided? It is beyond optimistic to expect some combination of Purcey, Richmond, and Jannsen to provide it. I think every Jays fan would be positively thrilled if these 3 guys provided us those number of innings at something close to league average. However, league average would represent a significant step back for the Jays overall run preventation.

While yes, every year a team or two surprises that people didn't expect to "realistically compete", you cannot spend money on marginal upgrades in the hope that this is the year every conceivable break goes the Jays way and they are the team that surprises people.  That's like betting on that 5% chance of happening, whereas the 95% odd is that the Jays are worse then last year and not better, which is a fairly ridiculous way to run a ball club.

Beam was designated for assignment to make room for Eric Hinske resulting in the designating of Adams.   Weird.

Beam seems more useful than Adams, so good move.  Last year Adams lost what little offence he had.  Given that he can't play defence, it was time to give up on him.

I wonder if all the stockpiling of AAA and AAAA guys has anything to do with Las Vegas?  I expect they go through pitchers pretty good there and they might have put on some pressure on the Jays to give them a decent team.

It's impossible to be precise, but I did kind of an overview on this over a month ago. You can break down the Jays rotation into five "slots" and account for almost every start in the season, although there are places where the rotation was modified and you have to make some assumptions.

Ranked by quality of work,

Slot one was Doc - a 2.78 ERA (33 starts)
Slot two was Marcum  and Richmond - a combined 3.48 ERA (30)
Slot three was Listch and Parrish - 3.80  (34)
Slot four was A.J. - 4.07 (34)
Slot five was McGowan and Purcey - 4.80 (31)

Again, this is imprecise because there are about five spot starts that just don't fit a normal rotation pattern.
But it's a fair ballpark

Now, in the first slot Doc will be Doc. He might not pitch that well again, of course, but that possibility is not what doomsayers are pointing too so I'll call that one  a wash and move on.

I'll skip #2 for a sec

At #3, we'd be asking Litsch to replicate a 3.80 - a reasonable expectation.

At #4 - can we expect Casey Janssen to equal a 4.07 (105 ERA+)? IF he's healthy, I think he can do that or get pretty darn close to it. One of the question marks to be sure. But it's not an unreasonable goal.

In the #5 spot, we have to ask Purcey to do at least a 4.80 - frankly, I see no reason at all why he can't do that.

So assuming Janssen is back to his healthy form, we have a solid chance - not a certainty but not a wistful dream either - of getting very similar production to last year in 4 of 5 slots.

The big question then, is #2 - McGowan and whoever keeps his spot warm until he returns.

I think it would be remarkable - bordering on pipe-dream - to suggest McGowan, coming off injury, and Richmond (or whoever) would pitch that well. In fact, i would assume at a minimum a full run's difference at a minimum.

Marcum and Richmond combined for 178.1 innings in 2008 while giving up 69 earned runs. If they had, instead, given up 89 earned runs, their ERA would have been a full run higher (4.49)  take it up to 99 runs and it's 5.00

So as a worst case in that spot you are looking at giving up maybe 25 more runs than you did last year. But that team total (635) would have still been #1 in baseball last year.

The question then becomes, will the offense improve enough to make up for that many run's If the Jays offense can produce an average of one additional run every  SIX games is a margin of 27 more  runs, which is right in the area of what I described above.
Now, you can nitpick and say Doc will give up more runs, and I could counter with "Purcey will likely be better than 4.80" but that's quibbling.

It still seems to me that we have a decent shot at a run differential in the 90-100 area, which pythag says is 90 wins or better.

To put numbers to it for clarity - the Twins' RD was 85 which pythag says is 89 wins (they won 88)
Ours was 104.

So if the offense scores a measly 27 more runs (which would have only moved our ranking in MLB up by ONE spot last year) then the pitchng can give up 46 more runs and still have an 89 win pythag (who can say how many we'd actually win).

I don't see why the rotation described above couldn't produce AT LEAST that kind of result.

I don't see why the rotation described above couldn't produce AT LEAST that kind of result.

You don't see why Janssen, coming off surgery for a torn labrum, couldn't just replicate Burnett's 2008 results? Really? He struggled as a starter, when healthy, in 2006. And now you concoct a model predicated on Janssen simply replacing Burnett?

One man's science is another man's wishcasting.

I see it differently Will...

We have Doc and Litsch returning from last year.

We can basically say that McGowan, Purcey, and Richmond combined as a group to be our #5 starter last year (as a group they made 36 starts) with a combined ERA of roughly 4.75 and approximately 200 innings.  We know what Burnett and Marcum did (371 excellent innings - 114 ERA+). That is essentially how our starts were covered last year.

We are expecting a combination of McGowan, Purcey, Richmond, and Janssen to replace their very average 200 innings from last year and another 371 very good innings.

Who wants to bet on that?

Looking at the Jays 2nd-half of 2008 pitching staff is probably instructive, since it's likely predictive of 2009's staff, and also because it was largely "Cito's Team," which performed very well (.580).

Doc: Was awesome. Will be awesome.
Burnett: 14 GS, 94.1ip, 1.18 whip, 2.86 ERA.   This will be missed, obviously.
Marcum: first-half Marcum was awesome, second half was pitching with a bum elbow. 10 GS, 52.1 ip, 1.46 WHIP, 4.78 ERA.  Not difficult to replace; Janssen-esque?
Litsch: 10 GS, 65.2 innings, 1.11 WHIP, 2.60 ERA. I wouldn't expect him to be that good over a full season, but his full-season numbers - 3.58 ERA over 176 innings - should be doable.
Purcey: 10 GS, 57.2 ip, 1.35 whip, 4.84 ERA. I don't really know what to expect - he could get better, he could lose some command. He feels McGowan-esque to me -probably has at least half a season of inconsistency before really settling in. On the whole, probably a repeatable performance. Better, if he only ever has to face Tampa.
Richmond: 5 GS, 27 ip, 1.26 WHIP, 4.00 ERA.  Something like that, probably with a higher ERA, is likely. He's probably the least-likely to remain in the rotation if he struggles or someone else is pushing.

So yeah, losing Burnett sucks. But the rest of the rotation should be about the same, making it probably average-to-above. But all you need is one or two things to go well: Purcey could take a step forward, Cecil could make a strong debut, McGowan or Janssen could return stronger or faster than expected.

And yes, of course, Purcey could lose the strike zone, McGowan and Janssen could both fail to recover, Litsch could finally have that collapse people keep predicting, and Doc could be killed by a falling piece of the dome. At which point there will be no shortage of people clamouring to say "I told you so."

I know this has nothing to do with Kevin Millar......but

Mr Beeston. You're known for making popular decisions and are a well respected man in the city, the country and in the baseball world.  Please find it in your heart to re-brand the Toronto Blue Jays with the familiar logo and colors.  The "Angry Jay" is cool and all, and the newish uniforms are pretty sharp but that's Paul Godfrey stuff.  Is this too much to ask? Thanks.

"You don't see why Janssen, coming off surgery for a torn labrum, couldn't just replicate Burnett's 2008 results? Really? He struggled as a starter, when healthy, in 2006. One man's science is another man's wishcasting."

And one man's memory isn't very good. Janssen started off VERY WELL in the rotation over his first half of starts, and then fell apart due to him pitching through an injury (or at least so he claimed). In his first 9 starts he threw 55.2ip 3.07era 0.91whip and a 3:1 k:bb.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Janssen can throw 34 starts with a 4.07era, I just don't think it's completely out of reach. In 2007 the Jays entered the season with a rotation of Halladay-Burnett-Chacin-Ohka-Towers and finished with Marcum-McGowan-Litsch stepping up for the back 3 and doing a tremendous job. I think a big factor in this is our defense - throw the ball over the plate and keep it in the park and you are going to have success pitching in front of this team. If I had to guess today, there will be a young pitcher who throws 20+ starts with an ERA better than Burnett's, and it won't be Janssen. Could be Cecil, either Romero, Richmond, Mills...I have no idea - I'm just not worried about the rotation. It will be good enough to get us by if the offense is actually up to par to contending this year, and that's the bottom line. Without a rejuvenated offense (healthier Wells, Hill and Rolen, more productive Rios and Overbay, actually receiving offense from LF and DH) this team isn't going anywhere anyway, so a possible decline in the rotation will be balanced out by a likely improved offense.

Yes!! Tell me the time and place and I'll be there holding a placard (speaking of which anyone recall Stengel talking about placards the Mets fans would hold during their first season from the Ken Burns doc - pure gold) at any protest that has this as its aim.

Hey hey ho ho - angry Jay has got to go!
Hey hey hee hee - BJ Birdy is who we want to see!
Hey hey hack hack - Blue Jays are blue and not black!

You don't see why Janssen, coming off surgery for a torn labrum, couldn't just replicate Burnett's 2008 results? Really? He struggled as a starter, when healthy, in 2006. And now you concoct a model predicated on Janssen simply replacing Burnett?

One man's science is another man's wishcasting.

Janssen - 2006

First nine appearances (all starts)-

55.2 IP, 43 H, 19 ER, 4 HR, 8 BB, 27 K, 3.07 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .210 BAA, .573 OPSA

Last 10 appearances (8 starts) -

38.1 IP, 60 H, 34 ER, 8 HR, 13 BB, 17 K, 7.98 ERA, 1.90, .353 BAA, .980 OPSA

Janssen and the team both said he suffered a back injury which he witheald from the trainers (much to the teams displeasure) in June.

Excuse? Lie?

Perhaps. But I personally don't believe a man gets THAT much worse overnight for no apparent reason. Does that mean I think Janssen will have an ERA close to 3.07? no, especially not coming off an injury. But I see no reason why he could post one in the low 4's.

The problem with being skeptical of the comparison is overlooking how average AJ's year was overall. This is natural because AJ pitched like a house afire in the second half and those are he freshest memories. I don't know that Janssen will EVER pitch a full half at that level...but I also don't think he will have those inexplicable disasters AJ had in the first half that drove his season totals up.

Still not convinced? Here's Janssen's total minor league career:

241.2 - 215 - 79 - 8 - 38 - 211

EIGHT HR in 241 IP? 

Doc gave up 19 in 246 IP in his excellent year last year.

5.55 K:BB?

Doc was #1 among qualifying starters last year and his wasn't that high.

7.86 K:9?

Doc was second in the majors last year and his wasn't that high.

1.42 BB/9?

Almost identical to Halladay's rate last year.

1.05 WHIP?

The best WHIP among starters in the majors last year was Halladay's 1.05

Am I arguing Janssen is as good as Doc? Obviously not. But his track record is good enough that I'm not basing my whole case on 9 starts in 2006 either.

Janssen is only a question mark because of the injury. If not for that, I'd be very confident predicting he could pitch as well as Marcum did last year if not better (let alone AJ). Don't underestimate him.

We are expecting a combination of McGowan, Purcey, Richmond, and Janssen to replace their very average 200 innings from last year and another 371 very good innings.

Using your breakdown instead of mine...

We are asking Doc and Listch to maintain
We are asking Purcey to cover that 4.75 you mentioned

And the question we are left with is how close McGowan and Janssen and(presumably) Richmond can come to what we got from AJ and marcum.

i reiterate my opinion that Janssen - IF healthy - can get very close to, if not better, AJ's 105 ERA+ season.

That leaves the gap between Marcum (and Parrish) in 2008 and McGowan (and Richmond) in 2009 (assuming a surprise by Cecil or someone doesn't upset the formula.

Again, this is a health question since we don't know what we'll get from McGowan, but IF he returned to his previous form, there's not a huge gap there.

So even if you parse them out your way instead of mine, I still come tp pretty much the same conclusion - if our offense improves as it should, our run differential should be +80 or better next season.

Will, it would really help if you read the posts. You just spent like 50 lines saying the same thing I said in a paragraph. Your posts can really get tiring and annoying, and most of the time it's completely unnecessary to respond line by line to other people's posts like you consistently do. I hope you don't take this the wrong way, just some constructive criticism that I suspect more than a few people in here have been holding in for awhile.

So i reply to posts as i come to them instead of reviewing the whole thread...

As for the length, yes it's longer (partly because I spread it out more) but it also has quite a bit of different content, I didn't say anything about the defense, or about the other candidates - you didn't say anything about Janssen's minor league record.

And while we both mentioned what happened in 2006, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that showing the numbers is a different thing that making a non-specific reference to them.

I guess though, that I'll just take note of your comments.

It does kind of get a guy down that everywhere he posts people have style complaints. I figured live and let live but so be it.

I'm perfectly fine with WillRain's form and style;

He breaks it down really well and in an organized fashion, and I enjoy that he rebuts each line that was a critique.

We're not writing Euclid's Elements here! It's a discussion, and we're all non-linear thinkers so you're bound to have repetition.

Keep it up, Will!

PS: Thank god somebody mentioned the disparity in Janssen's career starts. Most people write him because of those disastrous last 8 starts but forget the incredible first 9 starts. And it was his first taste in the bigs as a starter! How many guys have performed superbly in their first 17 starts? One need only look to Marcum, McGowan and Purcey to realize this.

I'll echo the "I'm perfectly fine with the style" sentiment because generally dissenting voices are louder than people who are OK with things. I'm OK with things. Long posts can be skipped over. Discussion is good.

On the other hand, it is good form to read a thread before replying... but in the excitement to reply any of us can forget to do so. Not a major transgression, but worth keeping in mind.