Stoeten makes a good point at DJF (which I ripped off for a post of my own) about how the failure of the Peavy deal - and what the Braves were willing to pay - is instructive concerning what the Jays might expect if the did market Doc.

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/

Joel Sherman says we are OUT on Furcal:

http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2008/12/jays_out_of_run.html

Apparently between his strong desire to stay with the Dodgers and the A's having guaranteed 4 years, we're out either way.

The Phillies gave Jamie Moyer another 2 years.

The Phillies gave Jamie Moyer another 2 years.

Meanwhile, a painting hidden away in a closet grows ever more grey.

Bravo Chuck!

Ahhh good ol DJF.

WillRain and Stoeten bring up excellent points. This notion that somehow Halladay would definitely garner a king's ransom of talent in return is naive at best.  Even a team as deseprate as the San Diego Padres are (surely the Jays aren`t half as desperate) to trade the cornerstone of their franchise aren`t finding a package acceptable to them. 

Chuck, best line here on Da Box  in a year or more. Bravissimo!

I wanna win! BUT, not as much as I want to be a Jays fan for the next 60 years (that will be till I'm 122).

The Jays had a "window" of 07/08/09 with this present group. Rolen's and Overbay's injuries and no breakout from Lind and Rios to the next level killed 08. The loss of AJ, McGowan and Marcum has killed that chance in 09. Dead - fini.

JP with limited resources needed everything to go well to seriously be competitive. JP is not the enemy.

HOWEVER, I'm REALLY looking FORWARD to 09! I want to see Lind and Snider grow and I want to watch the "youngsters."

Pitchers: (ON THE CUSP) Scott Richmond (this guy is a damn good pitcher), Brett Cecil, Brian Wolfe, Davis Romero, Mike MacDonald, Ricky Romero. Janssen and Accardo back from injury. (SOON ON THE CUSP) Robert Ray, Nathan Starner, Brad Mills, Kenny Rodriguez, Jonas Cuotto. AND (JUST BELOW THE CUSP - BUT SOON TO BE ON DECK) at least a DOZEN others.

Position Players: (ON THE CUSP) Lind, Snider, Jeroloman, Patterson (vs lefties), Campbell, Arencibia, Dopirak, Cooper, Emaus. (SOON ON THE CUSP) Aherns, Jackson, Tolisano, Eiland, Collins, Talley. (THE SUPER SLEEPERS) Adam Loewen and Eric Thames - both these guys MIGHT be STARS!!

2009 is going to be a very entertaining year. At the Major League level with little pressure on them and if Rolen and Overbay visit Lourdes we might even surprise. In the minors - lots of interesting guys to follow - root for and - enjoy!

SO - remember LIFE's the journey, not the destination. Get a happy face on AND keep it!

 Stoeten makes a good point at DJF (which I ripped off for a post of my own) about how the failure of the Peavy deal - and what the Braves were willing to pay - is instructive concerning what the Jays might expect if the did market Doc.

Peavy has little market value as he has a full no trade contract,  in effect he can veto any trade offer. Also every trade partner  knows, that the  Padres owner, who's going through divorce desperately needs to unload salary.  The Padres despite Peavy's talent have very little leverage in trying to establish a trade market for this player

Halladay looks to be a 10 and five player, meaning he has total veto over being traded as well. I'm  afraid obtaining true market value for either player is not feasible.

Even though I don't think that the Jays will sniff the playoffs, I'm looking forward to 2009 as well.  I'm going to Dunedin for spring training for the first time, which should be fun, and I'm looking forward to watching some or all of Romero, Mills, and Cecil make their debuts. 

I would like to see Lind get a regular position though.  I'm worried that his hitting will suffer at DH based on his performance in that role last year and the fact that he's still young.

I understood the general temperature among Phillies fans about the impending reign of Amaro Jr. as GM was pretty hot with fear that he would screw things up.

I'm a bit surprised he's gone after Park, but even more so after Ibanez. Moyer will probably never leave. The news I was hoping to hear this offseason was that the Phillies have awarded a boat load of dough to one Manny Ramirez and his sideshow. In my mind it was the perfect destination for Manny. Defending champs in search of left fielder who can slug it in the middle of the order. Philly fans would take him for all whacked out charm. Manny wouldn't see the pressure to bring home a championship on the defending team. Not that the pressure would bother him, he's only better off not being dogged with questions about how much pressure he feels.  Whether the finicky and fickle Ramirez would embrace Philly as his home is uncertain, but really I think they were made for each other.

Alas, the big signings will be Ibanez, Park and Moyer for the defending champs it seems. Oh well, more free agents for the Yankees.

Where's O-dog rumored to be headed?

Halladay looks to be a 10 and five player, meaning he has total veto over being traded as well.

Actually I take that back. According to Cots Halladay has 9.047 of service time( they haven't updated the past season yet). Also he does not appear to have a no trade contract,  at least  it's not documented on the usually reliable Cots.  If this is indeed the case, Peavy and Halladay have little in common in regards to potential trade value.
 

Mylegacy's comment here would make a good final thought for the year for many of DaBox's posters.

Surely many of us saw that the Jays would need everything to go right in order to win over the past few seasons, and everything didn't go right and they didn't win. That hardly means that the general manager is incompetent. Once again there are signs that pieces are in place that will allow for optimism again someday soon. Enjoy the games.

I'm a bit surprised he's gone after Park, but even more so after Ibanez.

The middle of the Phillies' lineup figures to be Utley-Howard-Ibanez meaning that teams in the NL East should be stocking up on LOOGYS. Were he not run out of town, Schoeneweis could have earned his Mets' paycheque solely in games against the Phillies.

"The middle of the Phillies' lineup figures to be Utley-Howard-Ibanez meaning that teams in the NL East should be stocking up on LOOGYS."

If I had to guess he will break that L-L-L up with Werth at #5 and Ibanez #6, at least vs. LHP.

"If this is indeed the case, Peavy and Halladay have little in common in regards to potential trade value.."

Peavy is also not interested in leaving the NL (smart guy). Look, nobody is saying trade Halladay for the sake of trading him, but the Jays need to be open about the possibility. At this point, it would not be a big surprise if he chose to sign elsewhere. Players ultimately, all want to win. Getting nothing more than picks for a guy like Halladay would be a disaster.

In the spirit of talking about '09 in a non-doomsday light, I've got to say that Travis Snider for me is the most exciting young player to come up in a long time.  It will be very interesting when/if he breaks camp with Toronto, and see how he handles the everyday grind. 

If this is indeed the case, Peavy and Halladay have little in common in regards to potential trade value.

I disagree. Everyone knows the Jays are only going to deal Doc if Doc tells them to. I think everyone can assume then, that in that case they would HAVE to deal him (to say nothing of the admitted financial pressures)

Furthermore, it seems quite unlikely that you go deal Doc to "just anyone"....Admittedly Peavy has hamstrung his GM in a way that Doc would not do - and that is one factor in the equation...but you can't just assume that other teams wouldn't sense a similar desperation on the part of the Jays.

In any case, when you factor in ability (Doc is better) and age and contract (both cut for Peavy) and GM flexibility (favors Doc) you still, at the end of the calculation, come away with values that are not very dissimilar. Even if you give a marginal edge to Doc, how much of a premium in terms of player potential are you willing to pay for that margin?

"SO - remember LIFE's the journey, not the destination. Get a happy face on AND keep it!"

As some one who does aging research from time to time, that's an attitude that'll help you be a Jays fan for 60+ years. I try to adopt it myself (and many of the other attitudes/habits of the highly functioned aged (90+) subjects we get for my lab's aging studies)...

...so a message to all the JP haters, the pessimism is bad for your health.

 .but you can't just assume that other teams wouldn't sense a similar desperation on the part of the Jays.

Why would the Jays be desperate? Unlike the Padres they don't have to cut further salary  ( in fact the Padres owner is now thinking of selling). If Halladay demanded a trade they could tell simply tell him no.  The Blue Jays hold all the cards in this situation .You trade Halladay because you feel the players coming back will exceed the value of his remaining contract value, simple as that. It's a business transaction.

Now I'm not arguing that he should be traded, but I am saying his value, unfettered on the open market , if the Blue Jays choose to explore this avenue, would be greater than Peavy's. In any arbitrage situation all it takes is two parties interested in one commodity to drive up the value. Peavy and his agent have not let an open auction take place. They limit potential suitors, and they also are demanding that his contract be reopened and renegotiated, no wonder there's been limited interest.

Considering Peavy is only willing to go to 2 or 3 teams and has completely blocked out the AL (thanks to his no-trade clause), I don't see how the situations are even on the same planet, much less comparable.

If Halladay leaves in two years and all the Jays get is two draft picks, then this team will head into the crapper. Seriously, if the Jays don't plan on spending money now to win with Halladay, then what is the point of keeping him? To finish with 75-85 wins? That doesn't benefit Roy or the Blue Jays.

I suspect Halladay is quite comfortable here in Toronto.  He has been here for his entire ML career, he is fairly popular locally with a friendly media (I don't recall any negative stories about Halladay since his 10+ ERA days and even then they were just on performance not on who he was iirc).  He was born in Denver so I doubt he wants to go 'home' to pitch (no pitcher in his right mind goes there without a contract big enough to last a lifetime).  While the playoffs are the goal for every competitive player I suspect seeing the Rays win the AL East last year actually gives Roy hope.  He seems smart enough to figure out the Jays were similar in runs for/against and it was largely due to luck (good for Rays, bad for Jays) that caused the spread in standings.  He knows the Jays could make it and he knows if they do he can feel a big part of it vs going to NY and just being a hired gun. 

In the end I think if the Jays present a competitive offer to Halladay he'd sign up for another 3-5 years after 2010.  If he leaves we'd be losing a guy for his age 34-36 years (3 year) or 34-38 years (5 year) - a risky age for pro athletes as some keep going (Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux, etc.) and some don't (Dave Stieb, Frank Viola, looks like Kevin Millwood will join the group, many others).  The Jays could end up with a $18-$22 million a year deal for a pitcher who finally breaks down, or they could have an ace.  Losing Halladay would hurt, no doubt.  However, if he leaves after 2010 or is traded before then it will not mean the Jays are doomed any more than losing Jimmy Key (between 92 and 93), Tom Henke (likewise), Dave Winfield (likewise), George Bell, or Carlos Delgado did (Jays have won 80+ every year since Delgado left vs 67 the last year he was here) to name just a few.

Looking back it hit me how many free agents were lost between 92 and 93.  The Jays had 7 bonus picks to replace David Cone, Jimmy Key, Tom Henke, and Manny Lee.  Guys taken included Chris Carpenter and a batch of nothing.  Wow, Gillick really blew it that year didn't he?  Of course, looking at that draft there was a whole lot of nothing out there (check B-R for details - outside of the top picks it was ugly).

It looks like the Braves are going to sign Furcal:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3772663

I've read that Yunel Escobar will be available if Furcal is signed.  I wonder what it would take to get him.  He'd solve the SS problem now and in the future at low cost, but unfortunately the Braves are looking for pitching and the Jays don't have many arms to give up right now.

I think it depends on how much Rogers expects to spend after 2010 (assuming ownership hasn't changed hands). I think Halladay will remain a Blue Jays through at least 2009 because of economic uncertainty. At this time next year, Rogers will have a better sense of how the economy (and the Jays' payroll) is likely to trend. If the company plans to stay in the $80-100M range for at least a few years, then keeping Halladay, who could be worth somewhere around $20-25M/year, looks untenable. You can't compete if half your payroll comprises two players (Wells and Doc). Of course, that assumes Halladay maintains his high level of performance as he approaches his mid-30s.

I've read that Yunel Escobar will be available if Furcal is signed.

Another rumour is that the Braves will move Furcal to second and Kelly Johnson to left field. I'm sure they're not set on either option though, and would certainly entertain offers for Escobar.

Atlanta getting Furcal seems a bit odd. Given the shortage of SS in free agency one would expect him to land his best deal with a team that has a SS shortage.

Escobar has a lifetime 109 OPS+ over 2 seasons and 942 PA's which is extremely good for a shortstop, plus he is still in his cheap years (team picks salary for 2009, arbitration most likely after that as I suspect he would be a super-two). Kelly Johnson at 2B has hit for a 108 OPS+ which is great at 2B but mediocre in LF. Of course, their 3 regular outfielders all hit for a sub-100 OPS+ last year but that should be a lot cheaper to find than signing Furcal who has a 96 lifetime OPS+.

So Atlanta, if this signing happens, drops their offense with possibly an increase in defense depending on how Furcal is rated vs Escobar vs Johnson vs an average LF.

I suspect there is a trade coming, the question is who and to what team. Escobar would appear the most valuable in a trade plus it would minimize their moves elsewhere, although Johnson was a LF who moved to 2B so his defense might be suspect.

Furcal: RZR is 812-841 since 2005
Escobar: RZR is 848 and 843 the past two years, 826 at 2B in limited playing time.
Johnson: RZR is 813/826 the past two years at 2B, 678 (glug) in LF (Lind is just shy of 900 for comparison).

I just don't get it. Escobar/Johnson is reasonable in middle infield, Furcal is a drop in defense and offense. Has to be a big trade coming.

I'm not sure I'd trust those LF numbers for Johnson. If he's reasonable at 2B, you'd have to expect him to be better defensively, relative to average, in LF. Similarly, Furcal's defensive value should increase moving to 2B. Per a poster on BBTF, Furcal's weakness is his arm, so 2B should suit him if that's the plan.

I wouldn't trade Escobar if I were the Braves. Relying on a mediocre defensive shortstop on the wrong side of 30 coming off an injury-plagued season is risky at best.

"Per a poster on BBTF, Furcal's weakness is his arm, so 2B should suit him if that's the plan."

Furcal has a cannon.

Since I haven't watched Furcal much and there aren't great stats on arm strength, I'll defer to you, 92-93. Here's the thread at BBTF I referred to before. I was wrong; the poster actually didn't say Furcal's arm is a weakness, he just said Escobar's is better.

My initial reaction on hearing about the Furcal signing was "that's odd, but obviously Furcal wants to go back to Atlanta." And I'd guess that in this instance, it's more about the player's desire than the big-picture plans of the club.

Seems Furcal has listened to all those who are surprised he would return to Atlanta and has gone all 'Rod Barajas' on the fans of the Braves. story

One agent hammering out a deal with one team as another agent hammers out a deal with another team. I'm still waiting for the story of the professional athlete who employs three agents to negotiate terms with three teams.

Or even three agents negotiating with one team, if that team happens to be the Yankees. 

I'm not pleased that Capuano re-signed with the Brewers to a minor-league deal worth just $500K, with innings incentives/games started incentives that total $2.5 mil!

We could have offered $1.5 guaranteed money with additional incentives to lure him away!

Griffin finally wrote a good column. Even though it is based upon his hatred of AJ - he has a good suggestion for righting a wrong in baseball, that AJ has a bigger contract than Doc. Griffin's solution is nice, a bigger contract for Doc, the Jays are on the hook for 0 extra dollars in 2009-2010 and Doc can still opt out after two years if he wants to go for a big pay-day.

JP ought to offer this contract immediately. This would be a nice favour to Doc for accepting a below-market deal.

So the Jays should be basing their contract offers on the NYY system of over payment?  Maybe the Jays should work on signing Roy to another below market deal, seeing as that would be best for the Jays.

I have a copuple of Thursday morning questions:

1. Assuming that no-one we sign from here on in  makes the starting rotation, and we don't move Downsie in, do any other MLB teams have starting rotations made up of players who have only pitched for one organisation?

2. Can someone explain to me why we would waste a year of Travis' service clock in 2009? While I am not as pessimistic as some I do believe this is a time for a Minnesoat Twins approach to him. A year on the back end will be more valuable to us than 09. Unfortunately, I fear short term considerations (JP's job - contingent on the perception the farm is better and 1 or 2 wins in a meaningless season) will trump these with the corresponding effect on salary juggling down the line.

The answer to the second question is obvious.  Snider will be a much better player in 2010 if he is facing major-league pitching for a full season in 2009.  (Not to mention the fact that he could be actually better than any other LF that the team could find for 2009.)   Forget about service-clocks or other arcane financial trivia.   Even if the team has little chance of the playoffs in 2009, it certainly wants to be a contender in 2010.   And Snider will be a huge part of that 2010 team.  So, it's obvious:  accelerate his development, speed up his adjustment to major-league pitching, and you've got a stronger player in 2010.  Don't leave him in the minors when he has already proven that he doesn't need it.   The only potential downside is if Snider is over-matched in the majors and loses his confidence.  But that was precisely the value of his September call-up last season (which many people didn't understand at the time).  He did fine in September, and now the Jays can be pretty sure that he is mature enough and confident enough to handle a full season in the majors.  (I don't think he will suffer a Lind-like regression in 2009.)  And by 2010 he should be a major contributor on a team that -- if the pitching bounces back -- could be a contender.

Another point to remember with Snider is that the worst case situation (financially) is 2009/2010 he will be at the ML minimum (or whatever the Jays choose to pay him) then arbitration in 2011-2014 before becoming a free agent in 2015.  That is the same window we have Wells, Rios, and Hill signed for.  By 2015 the Jays will be starting a new cycle with (probably) one or two of those 4 sticking around while the others leave.  Kids from the minors will be taking over, Halladay (if resigned) will be getting on in years.  To worry about having Snider in 2015 or not during the 2009 season seems a bit of an overreaction.

I think my point is not whether we have him in 2015 but rather what we will be paying him 2012 -14.

One year of extra service time will have correspondingly large impacts on annual salary values throughout that (crucial) time period.

Did Justin Morneau take extra time to adapt given his 'treatment'? Is he a lesser hitter now?

 

I don't know about extra time (who knows what would have been?), but Morneau did struggle in his first full mlb season at the age of 24, after a great half-season at 23. He batted just .239/.304/.437. It wasn't until his second full mlb season that he broke out.

It is not at all obvious whether Snider's pre-free agency career will be enhanced by having a year at triple A or a year in MLB in 2009.  He did not absolutely dominate double A like Vladimir Guerrero did at a similar age.  The Reds allowed Adam Dunn to destroy double A and triple A (albeit briefly) before giving him the call. 

Ricciardi's history would seem to suggest he's probably looking for a veteran of/DH so he Snider doesn't have to play in Toronto all year, and can spend some time at AAA if necessary. That's fine, as long as it's closer to Matt Stairs than Brad Wilkerson.

That would be the right move, and I agree that it is one that Ricciardi has usually made.  The Jays did however call up Rios too early because of insufficient OF depth and unfortunate injuries. 

1. Assuming that no-one we sign from here on in makes the starting rotation, and we don't move Downsie in, do any other MLB teams have starting rotations made up of players who have only pitched for one organisation?

I can't think of any others off the top of my head. The Twins have 4 home grown starters in Blackburn, Slowey, Baker and Perkins, and Liriano has only pitched for one major league team, but was drafted by SF.

Got me thinking about Jay rotations over the years.  They came darn close in 1991 - in decending order of games started for the Jays that year...
Stottlemyre, Key, Wells, Guzman, (Candiotti), Stieb, Boucher, (Acker), Timlin, Hentgen, (Willie Fraser).  Fraser had just 1 start, Candiotti 19, Acker 4.  A total of 24 starts by non-home grown talent (Acker reached the majors in Toronto but was drafted by Atlanta and at this point was on his 2nd tour with the Jays).  Not bad for home grown rotation eh?  Just imagine if Clemens had been drafted a few years earlier too :)

The year before it was Stieb, Stottlemyre, Key, Wells, Cerutti, (Flanagan - 5), Willie Blair, (Frank Wills - 4), and 2 each for (Candelaria), (Black) and Cummings.  Total of 4 non-Jay products with 13 starts total.

Can anyone find more by a teams own product without going to the days of 3 man staffs?

Ernie to lead Canada in the WBC,

Former major-leaguer and veteran manager Ernie Whitt will once again be the Canadian skipper, returning to the role he held during the 2006 Classic. Whitt led Canada to a 2-1 record during the inaugural event, but Canada was eliminated on a tiebreaking rule.

"Stottlemyre, Key, Wells, Guzman, (Candiotti), Stieb, Boucher, (Acker), Timlin, Hentgen, (Willie Fraser)."

Guzman was drafted by LA & came over for Mike Sharperson (RIP)

 

Sweat,

Why should Doc sign another below market deal? Paying Doc a million more wouldn't be over payment, in fact it'd be another below market deal.

It is frankly disgusting that any Jays fan would suggest that the Jays milk Halladay because of his loyalty - he deserves to be rewarded, not taken advantage of... Doc has been nothing but a fine member of this organization.

One of the newest Blue Jays describes a classic prank at BA in his non-prospect diary.  It is worth the read.

Christaylor:

We have a difference of opinion on the subject.  While I won't refer to yours as disgusting, I do think you are wrong.  

One, I didn't suggest that Doc should sign another below market deal, I suggested that the Jays should try and sign Doc to a below market deal.  Two, Doc has been rewarded, as he is rich beyond belief. 

2 other points:  If Roy desperately wants to win, he might want to play somewhere else, whatever offer the Jays make. If Roy want's to win with the Jays, he probably would like them to have some money to spend on other players.  Just my opinion.

Guzman was drafted by LA & came over for Mike Sharperson (RIP)

That's largely correct. While he was traded for Sharperson, Juan was an undrafted free agent when he signed with the Dodgers. One of the best trades in the history of trades.

The Jays did however call up Rios too early because of insufficient OF depth and unfortunate injuries.

At that point though, the Jays were still in salary-cutting mode; In 2004, Ricciardi did not yet intend to compete. He was simply trying to fill the right field slot without spending money on it. Ricciardi is once again cash strapped, however he intends to compete this year. It seems more likely that he will get an experienced DH for the sake of competing. Snider could start at AAA and come up if Lind/Wells/Rios/Overbay/the DH get hurt or underperform, which is certain to happen at some point in the year.

Doh!  Forgot that Guzman was a Jay via trade.  Sigh, I guess the memory is what goes first :P

Hmm... checking the Jays of 2008...
(AJ 34 starts), Halladay, Litsch, Marcum, McGowan, Purcey, Richmond, (Parrish 6).  A total of 40 starts by 2 pitchers who were not 'born Blue Jays'. 

2001, the last year of Ash...
Carpenter, (Loaiza 30), (Hamilton 22), (Parris 19), (Michalak 18), Halladay, Lyon, Escobar, Coco.  89 starts by non-'born Jays'.  The always Jays were all over 100 for ERA+ that year, the imports were all at 100 (on the nose) or less.

Just an interesting contrast in how they each built their rotations.

ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox  are out of the Texiera sweepstakes.  Perhaps this is some sort of negotiating tactic, but the story implies that an eight year offer was tabled by someone and John Henry is quoted as saying Boston is moving on. 

IMO, this is a pretty big blow for the Sox and great news for the Jays.  Not having to face that guy eighteen times a season is a big relief.  Now all we need is for Pedroia and Youkillis to come back to earth and have Ortiz continue to degrade and we might have something here. 

Hayhurst is clearly an evil genius. Now I'm really rooting for him....

That Hayhurst story is incredible, and very well written.

I was just looking at his stats, and he seems to have put 2 very solid seasons in a row, and 2008 was entirely in the PCL. What's the scouting report on him? Why was he moved from starter to reliever in 2007? Is he someone that could potentially become a mainstay in the 2009 bullpen, sort of like a Jesse Carlson who very few people had on their radar prior to 2008?

What Hayhurst story? i saw one impressive Q&A with him looking for what you might be talking about but I don't know if it's what you mean.

Nevertheless I'm a fan based on the one I saw.

Will it's the article Gerry has linked too above. It's hilarious.

Wow, now _THAT_ was well worth the read.  Dirk Hayhurst is a very cruel and funny man.  Thanks Gerry for that got me laughing.  Throughout it I could just imagine the guy pacing and thinking and pacing and thinking 'can I really make myself do that for that much'.  

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-diary/2008/267206.html for those who don't feel like searching through the thread.

I really, really hope he can pull off a 'Jesse Carlson' and get a career here next year somehow.

The more I read, the more I like. So much so that I wrote a blog post myself praising the guy. Here are a couple of other links you'll want to read. One is a blog post he wrote in August:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/features/264668.html

The other is an interview done at a Padres blog just after the waiver claim:

http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/10/chatting-with-dirk-hayhurst-redux.html

This dude has great skill as a writer and a heckuva lot of class, apparently.

In case it hasn't dawned on anyone who might know how to make it happen, someone should lobby Dick to drop some of his humorous insight around here.

Sending out invitations never hurt anyone.

"someone should lobby  'Dick' ...   Sending out invitations never hurt anyone."     This sounds like an invitation to an article right up his alley.  He really does have a talent for writing about near fame and irony ...

"Jays Listening on Wells"

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/jays-listening.html

I would be surprised to see something happen, but you never know. How many teams (1) need a CF, (2) can afford Wells's contract, and (3) are willing to make him a priority over other lower-cost or lower-risk acquisitions?

Still, it's disconcerting to see more evidence that the Jays are abandoning the moves towards competitiveness--Vernon's contract, contract extensions to some key players, willingness to acquire marquee free agents--that ownership was prepared to make just a couple of years ago.

I don't think I would worry too much about the Jays listening to inquiries about Wells.  It's not the same thing as shopping him around.  If the right offer came along they would be fools not to at least listen.  What it may indicate though is other teams may sense blood in the water and are attempting to pull a fast one. At this point I don't see desperation in the front office... perhaps a little frustration, but not to the point of giving away talent.

For you Daniel Cabrera fans (both of ya) you might be interested in knowing he's singed with the Nationals.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/nationals-sign.html

That's fantastic for Daniel Cabrera. I didn't think he would get that much money but good for him! Plus, I think he's going to benefit greatly from the big RFK Stadium and the weaker NL hitters(i.e. their "DH's"). Don't be surprised if he posts an Ervin Santana type turnaround next year (i.e. 200IP, 200K's, sub4.25 ERA).

Another guy I wanted the Jays to sign has resigned with his 2008 team - Juan Rivera. Like Cabrera, he too got the best possible deal - 3 years, $12.75 mil.
I still can't believe that Anaheim gave him that when they've already got a clogged outfield with Matthews Jr., Guerrero, Willits, Hunter and possibly Chone Figgins.

Nothing earth shattering, but Ricciardi has some quotes in the Boston Globe today.

Drat. That link isn't working for me.

Here is the article from the Boston Globe:

 

Jays' Ricciardi knows the deal
From his first day as general manager of the Blue Jays in 2001, J.P. Ricciardi has known that the Red Sox and Yankees operate on a different plane. Already this offseason, Ricciardi has seen CC Sabathia and his former pitcher, A.J. Burnett, join the Yankees for enormous sums of money. He's watched the Red Sox-Mark Teixeira drama unfold and realizes that this is what the Sox and Yankees go through and there's not a lot he can do about it.

Ricciardi was told to lop some $20 million off last year's payroll, bringing this season's to $85 million. Burnett's departure will save him $12 million.

Ricciardi was involved in talks for free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal, who finalized a deal with the Dodgers Friday, but he wasn't able to move a high-priced player to afford Furcal

Ricciardi is a big fan of Derek Lowe, but the GM questions whether Lowe would consider Toronto, and if he did, Ricciardi said he'd have to "rob Peter to pay Paul".

Ricciardi, who said "there are still a lot of excellent players on the board," might resort to bottom feeding for free agents.

The Worcester native respects the job the Rays did en route to their Cinderella season.

"They have tremendous young players and they've done a wonderful job grooming those kids into top-shelf major league players," he said.

Unlike the Rays, whose consistently poor seasons led to high draft picks, the Jays' average seasons haven't resulted in a bumper crop of young talent.

Ricciardi feels he must be more creative than ever.

"Orlando Hudson is out there. Jason Giambi is out there. We'll have to see who's out there still when the music stops and see who we might be able to get," Ricciardi said.

If a deal is appealing, Ricciardi might move Scott Rolen or Lyle Overbay. He would have to be blown away by an offer to part with closer B.J. Ryan.

The Nats don't play in RFK anymore though and Nationals park plays much more neutral than RFK. I have huge doubts about Cabrera because unlike Santana his K/BB ratios have always been lousy. I'm glad JP didn't go anywhere near him as I think the O's know even more about him beyond his lousy numbers.

Hopefully, a lot of teams will be scared away from spending and so free agents will have to reduce their demands and then maybe a guy like Orlando Hudson or Bradley can be had for $6 million anually instead of the $9 mil he covets. Similarly, a guy like Sheets may be able to be signed for around $11-12 mil... I guess we just have to wait and see what the domino effect of Teixeira's contract is going to be.
History seems to suggest that contracts are just going to inflate as evidenced by the Ibanez and Burnett deals.

In my informal research over this offseason, I find that there ARE years when the average salary goes down, but they are one year reversals of a few percent...the overall trend is up-up-up.

The average salary in 2009 was 290.5% of the average salary in 1992.

That's against "real world" inflation of 46%

I think that there's a good possibility that signings like the Ibanez deal will be looked upon as ahead of the 2008 market and bad moves.

But that doesn't mean I think the market will really contract for the top guys. Still, I'm optimistic about  late January signings.

Anyone who was betting on Joe Posnanski to sign Mark Teixera can now officially give up the ghost, as he claims to be pulling out of the bidding. Time will tell if this is a ruse or if he really is withdrawing.

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/12/22/an-announcement/

"I don't think I would worry too much about the Jays listening to inquiries about Wells"

In fact, I think any team would be crazy not to listen to offers for everyone you have. Sure, you don't want to trade Snider, but nobody is untouchable if a team is willing to give up the right players. Wells' contract makes him unlikely to be dealt, but it would be a huge salary relief for the Jays if they could unload him.


"For you Daniel Cabrera fans (both of ya) you might be interested in knowing he's singed with the Nationals."

Any fan of Cabrera has obviously never owned him in fantasy baseball.

Teixeira to the Yankees.  The four highest-played players in baseball now are all in the Bronx.

And yet...even now, are they as good as Boston?  Tampa?

The $Yankees$ got Teixeira:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3790141

In addition to being very frustrated with the fact that the Yankees and Red Sox spend half a billion dollars on players and face the Jays 18 times each (while some of their "competition" for the wild card gets to beat up on weaker teams in the Central 18 times each), I'm also disappointed that the compensation for Burnett will now be even worse.  Sandwich pick and a 3rd rounder now?  Terrible. 

All I want for Christmas is a salary cap and new schedule or playoff format.  It's a hard time to be a Jays' fan.

Makes it even easier to "hate" the Yankee now, doesn't it and I'll echo the cap/schedule/playoff format sentiments.

So... Texiera to the Yankees....

 

That means we get what, a 3rd round pick for Burnett??  nicely done JP, I know you couldn't have predicted this, but it was alwasy possible with the Yankees.  I'm sure gald you hung on to AJ at the deadline...

So seriously, who do the Jays need to bribe to get moved to the NL East?

At least NYC is benefitting from the Yankees version of an economic stimulus plan.

I'm trying to look at the bright side of things, and the good news is that the Jays will probably get a very high draft pick in 2010!  Maybe the only way to get into the playoffs will be to follow the Rays' model of many straight last place finishes in order to get many straight first overall picks, thus being good for a couple years before losing those players to the rich teams and repeating the cycle.  I can't wait!

Last rant, I promise.

"All I want for Christmas is a salary cap and new schedule or playoff format.  It's a hard time to be a Jays' fan."

I'll echo that although I hate the idea of a salary cap like in the NFL or NHL as it just creates a whole lot of mediocrity and punishes teams who draft well. The problem is that the Yankees outspend everyone by so much that it's insane. The difference between the #1 and #2 teams in spending last year was the same as the difference between #2 and #18. I could go with a high cap which most teams would never reach but would ensure that no team could spend so insanely (maybe like $140 million or something). Still.. F***ing Yankees. All I want for Christmas is Sabathia to be the second coming of James Baldwin and for John McDonald to outhit Teixera.

On the bright side, Burnett could implode, mentally or physically, at any time. And maybe Sabathia's workload and physique will finally take its toll on him. And Teixera... well, I got nothing for him. He looks pretty good, at least for the next few years. Maybe years 6-8 will be ugly. That is our window, though maybe at that point the Yankees will sign Travis Snider to a $30 million-a-year deal.

I'm trying to look at the bright side of things, and the good news is that the Jays will probably get a very high draft pick in 2010!  Maybe the only way to get into the playoffs will be to follow the Rays' model of many straight last place finishes in order to get many straight first overall picks, thus being good for a couple years before losing those players to the rich teams and repeating the cycle.  I can't wait!

Baloney.

But there's really no point in me explaining again that the Jays were just as good as the Rays were last year except in one category - luck.

And we did it without being a last place team for 10 years.

Yes, this sucks, but frankly, except for the draft pick, I prefer Tex with the Yanks than with the Red Sox because the Yankees have more potential for unexpected bad outcomes.