So who is left unprotected?

Ryan Patterson

Can't Marcum be moved to the 60-day disabled list to free up a roster spot?

I would have kept Patterson over Coates.  Patterson can't do much against your average righthander, but he's always mashed lefties and can play anywhere in the outfield.  He seems like the type of potential fourth outfielder you need if Lind and Snider are out there in left.  Coates is a lefty who can play defense, but I'd think you'd want your fourth outfielder to have a platoon advantage.

The DL cannot be used out of season, if it could there would be a lot of guys on the DL over the winter.

I have no love for Coats at all, but I also think there's a few excess pitchers that would have slid through waivers. Hell, Russ Adams has no future here and no trade value - why is he still on the roster?

I doubt Patterson would be taken.  He's not good enough to stick on someone else's roster all year.

Hell, Russ Adams has no future here and no trade value - why is he still on the roster?

Because the GM that drafted him in the first round is still with the Jays. If the Jays had a new GM or Adams was let's say, a 8th round pick, he probably wouldn't be on the 40 man roster.

What are the Jays going to do without Walrond? They're tragically short of lefthanded pitching now.

         one of many things I didn't know ... as per Ken Rosenthal... Jason Fraser allowed the second lowest percentage of inherited runners to score last season (minimum 30 inherited runners) .   His 12.5 percent was behind J.P. Howell's 11.4 and ahead of 3rd place finisher Jonathan Papelpon's 13.3 percent ... whoda thunk ?

I don't like that stat at all as it doesn't take into account which base the inherited runner was on or how many were on. I don't recall Frasor getting tapped for those bases loaded no out extra-inning situations (Jesse Carlson and his moment in the sun - ahh - good times).

If the Jays' 40 man is full now, JP can't participate in the rule V draft. Is that correct (not that the team probably wants to carry another Corey Thurman)?

Correct that the Jays can't select in the Rule V draft if their roster is full, but the draft isn't until December 11th and with the 40-man carrying 25 pitchers, I suspect a few more moves to be made by JP between now and then.

Mind you, he might not participate even if a roster spot or two is open.

Right now the key with the 40 man is that anyone on it who is dropped has to clear waivers, guys not on it are subject to the Rule 5 draft unless put on by then.  So, who in the system who is eligible for the draft is likely to be taken?  Not too many I suspect thus no need to drop guys like Adams - yet.

Odds are if JP signs a free agent (mandatory to be put onto 40 man roster) or does a trade with an uneven number of 40 man guys we'll see changes and that Adams is high on the list of guys to be dropped. 

As to the Jays doing stuff in the Rule 5 - they'd have to carry the guy all year.  If you assume a 7 man bullpen and a 4 man bench then you have on the bench McDonald/Scutaro (one is the regular shortstop) Inglett and Bautista and a catcher.  While I'd dump McDonald in a second with Bautista the next on my list to go odds are the Jays won't for a Rule 5 guy.  The pen right now is left handers Ryan/Carlson/Downs/Tallet and right handers Frasor/Camp/League/Wolfe/Accardo plus Janssen is in the mix somewhere (starting or relieving) and that is a total of potentially 10 relievers.  Even if 3 of them go into the rotation to join Halladay and Litsch (Wolfe/Janssen/Downs) you still have a full bullpen plus then you have to find a slot for Purcey while figuring out what to do when McGowan comes back. 

Phew.  Right now I just don't see anywhere a rule 5 pick can go on this team.  Our pen is overloaded (plus the guys JP signed this winter) and our bench is so small that it is hard to see someone being added to it.

Ron, your reponse to the why keep Russ Adams on the 40 man is what I have suspected for years.  Is it an ego thing, or the fact that they made a mistake and put so much money in him?  If it's the money, which I suspect it is, why keep wasting it by keeping him hanging on?  I read somewhere that the Jays released Brian Pettway.  Why him and not Russ Adams?  What's the difference??

Also, this is for Gerry.  Are there any minor league free agents that were in the Jays system that you think they will resign?  Kratz, Smith, and a few others come to mind.

 I read somewhere that the Jays released Brian Pettway.  Why him and not Russ Adams?  What's the difference??

Well first off Brian Pettway couldn't hit his way out of A ball, after several years they gave him a shot as a pitcher last year, and apparently were not too impressed with. Russ Adams has hit decent enough in the minors to be a AAAA depth guy. He is what he is, he is depth, in the past we have had very little infield depth so Adams was a decent player to have down in AAA, he's pretty much a Hector Luna type of utility guy that some team would probably waste a 40 man roster spot on just to have the AAA depth there to prevent rushing prospects.

Lucky:

It is hard to say, it comes down to how much interest there is in that player from other organizations.  In general those players would go elsewhere if there is a team that likes them.  The players know that the Jays don't have them targetted for the major leagues so if they think there is a path through another team they will take it.  However if that option isn't available to them, if there is not a lot of interest, those players will often return for several reasons.  One, the organization is comfortable to them; second they know the home cities and might have friends there; and finally the pay should be reflective of the low risk to the organization from that player.

Most first time minor league free agents are looking to get to the majors and will take a deal with that in mind.  Most minor league free agents who have been free agents before are looking for the best financial deal.

The Jays will have gaps to fill and will need free agents from somewhere.  If Kratz comes back he would be backup to Arencibia or Jeroloman so I see him trying hard to land somewhere else.  Smith would get playing time but at what level?  The other advantage free agents have is being able to get a commitment from the team as to where they play.  So David Smith could say I will re-sign but only if you guarantee me a AAA spot.

In summary the Jays would probably like to have the players back but the players will try hard to find some other organization that thinks more highly of them.

The AFL is over, and Arencibia finished with 5 BB and 26 K in 100 PA, and didn't draw a walk in at least his team's last 10 games (can't see further). The final line was .275/.298/.484. For someone who was told to go there and not worry about his stats but rather plate coverage and pitch recognition, that's not very good. I've read others here say he projects like a Rod Barajas, and if that's true, his value as a prospect right now is probably higher than it will ever be as a big-league C. I'd consider moving him for the right SS/3B prospect.

Most teams have a couple "What's that guy doing on the roster?" types. Last winter, I don't know how many people thought Joe Inglett was deserving of a spot; iirc, BP berated the Jays for keeping Inglett and letting Jamie Vermilyea go.

Adams could be a useful piece if someone gets injured. It wouldn't be a huge loss if he was left off the roster, but neither is Ryan Patterson or (particularly) Brian Pettway. 

After 2003, Russ Adams had just turned 23 and put in decent offensive half-years at Dunedin and New Hampshire, with good plate control and a smidgen of pop.  The club insisted that he was likely to be an adequate defender at shortstop despite significant concerns about his arm.  Arencibia is likely a mirror image of Adams with good pop, a smidgen of plate control (charitably), a good arm but questions about his overall defensive capability behind the plate.  The one commonality is the nagging low-level concern about approach to dealing with their respective weaknesses.

BP historically has preferred the Adams skill set to the Arencibia, while BA historically has preferred the Arencibia skill set.  For myself, in both cases, I think that the prospect would be best off to be moved early to a position which does not challenge the limits of their defensive capabilities and told to work hard on their offensive games.  The prospect should not, in my view, be moved up until he performs well offensively at each level, notwithstanding draft status.

Ricciardi's promotion of Arencibia as a realistic option as a catcher for 2009 is, in my view, runs counter to Arencibia's developmental progress, in the same way that Ricciardi's early promotion of Adams years ago as a realistic option as a shortstop for the big-league club was contrary to Adams' developmental needs. The prospect does not need to be told that he is almost ready when he is clearly not. 

Has Ricciardi actually suggested Arencibia making the team in 2009? I've seen speculation in a few places about it, but nothing official; I'd agree that promoting him to the majors would be a pretty terrible idea right now. I could see him making it to Toronto around mid-season if he tears AAA apart, but that's about it.

I think Kratz is one of a few catchers the Jays have their eyes on. They need a ML backup and if they feel Jeroloman and/or JPA are not ready then whoever is signed as a AAAA guy has a great shot at a job. Also, when catchers get hurt (and they do) there needs to be a guy who isn't being developed in AAA to call up and Kratz could land into that slot. It all depends on how the Jays feel about Thigpen vs Kratz - if they indicate to Kratz that he'll be the one called up instead of Thigpen then Kratz will probably come back, if not then he'll go elsewhere.

I suspect Kratz is a secondary option. Primary is to find a guy with some ML experience behind the plate who keeps bouncing between AAA and the majors thus will be cheap and able to be sent to AAA if a kid develops.

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2008/11/21/7484636-sun.html

Looks like the Jays haven't ruled out a 5 year contract offer to AJ Burnett. If not from the Jays, it looks like AJ will receive a 5 year deal from another club. Giving a 5 year deal to any pitcher in their 30's is insane. I hope it won't be the Jays.

As much as everyone bleeds over the Adams pick, it was actually having the Negron, Gross and Adams consecutive first-rounders that really set the Jays back. The Adams pick wouldn't have had to be so crucial if there had been a little help from those other two.

Looks like the Jays haven't ruled out a 5 year contract offer to AJ Burnett. If not from the Jays, it looks like AJ will receive a 5 year deal from another club. Giving a 5 year deal to any pitcher in their 30's is insane. I hope it won't be the Jays.

One thing I do like: JP stated up front they would NOT be the highest bidder. If there's enough of a discount, then it would be like an expensive 4-year contract, but paid/played over 5 years. Might be doable.

The Jays could always waive Adams during the rule V draft if someone impressive was around that they could grab, right?

It all depends on how the Jays feel about Thigpen vs Kratz - if they indicate to Kratz that he'll be the one called up instead of Thigpen then Kratz will probably come back, if not then he'll go elsewhere. [....] Primary is to find a guy with some ML experience behind the plate who keeps bouncing between AAA and the majors thus will be cheap and able to be sent to AAA if a kid develops.

I agree, though in my opinion, I want to see BOTH Kratz and Thigpen fighting for AAA starting catcher work; with Arencibia and Jeroloman on the wings from AA.
For backup catching at the MLB level, there have been quite a few solid backups or veterans stuck in AAA minors this year. In my opionion, Pierre Luc LaForest, a canadian recently released by the Phillies AAA is an option.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7983



 

Why on earth would anyone REMOTELY consider Kratz a potential major leaguer?

He's a 28 year old organization soldier with a AA ceiling. Because he lucked into a few extra HR in Syracuse last year he's suddenly got a future?

No.

Not to speak in defense of Thigpen but if Thiggy is not the man, there will be a signing...David ross maybe, or Josh Bard...at least a JR House.

Hell, it's pretty tough to find a FA catcher who's NOT a much surer bet than Kratz and a lot of them could be signed to a minor league deal.  That's not to say that, if they do give Thiggy the major league reserve role, they won't sign kratz to sere as a backup in AAA or AA...but he's not going to be in the majors.

Speaking of minor leaguers who need signing....check out this guy:

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jesus%20Guzman&pos=3B&sid=l135&t=p_pbp&pid=461882

Inexplicably left off the 40 man roster by the A's, he's a minor league free agent. If anyone signed him now he'd be subject to the Rule V draft, but given the tremendus sucktitude that has been our lot at 3B in AAA for some time now, this is a guy we ought to be sitting on the moment the draft is done.

Some other guys the Jays could use in AAA next season: (look 'em up)

Tim Raines, Jr
Joel Guzman (of not Jesus)
JR House or Pete LaForesst (or both if you want to give them a shot at the major leage backup job too)
Ryan Wagner (maybe it's too much to hope for but I'd like to give Queen or Arnsberg a chance to figue him out)
Chris George - (actually finished 2008 in the Jays system but i don't know if they had enough time to figure him out)

All this talk of backup catchers would make it appear to the casual fan that the Jays were looking solid for next year and were in the luxurious position of just needing to add the final small pieces to their roster.

All this talk of backup catchers would make it appear to the casual fan that the Jays were looking solid for next year and were in the luxurious position of just needing to add the final small pieces to their roster.

That's more true, actually, than you realize. Aside from the gaping hole at DH (assuming Snider is in AAA) and the annual question of SS, they pretty much are set.
Consider:

In the rotation, three jobs are set and a fourth will be filled when McGowan returns. For the fifth job, there are as many as five internal candidates who will, I'm sure, be joined by "small piece" or two  I still like Janssen over almost any of the potential cheap imports anyway.

It goes without saying that the bullpen has so many candidates we are going to have to ru na couple of them out of town.

In the field, you have:

Set players at 3B, 2B, RF, and CF
A 1B who, assuming he stays, pounds righties and needs a platoon partner - enter Jose Bautista who pounds lefties. Between them that's a fine offensive 1B.
Overbay v. RHP: .291 - .384 - .481 - .865
Bautista v. LHP: .250 - .339 - .546 - .885

If you pro-rate Bautista's counting stats to the number of at bats Overbay got against lefties last year, then you are looking at a 1B production of 33 doubles, 27 HR, and 86 RBI. Their combined averages would be .279 - .375 - .496 - .871

That 1B would have been almost identical to Carlos Pena, except for a higher batting average.

 Bautista also serves as one half of a platoon of players who can work 3B if something goes wrong with Rolen. Using the same formula, and taking Overbay's number of at bats as a working figure, the INglett/Bautista 3B combination would produce the following third baseman: .285 - .348 - .449 - .787
Essentially Alex Gordon or Adrian Beltre. (and yes I know Bautsta can't do both at once - if Rolen gets hurt you lose production at 1B - lose some at 3B to if I'm right about Rolen's potential for next year)

Which Adam Lind shows up in LF in 2009? I dunno. But we've gotta put him out there and find out.

You need an occasional reserve outfielder - both Inglett and Bautista can play the outfield corners when they are not busy in the infield. You'll take  little offensive hit somewhere but then you expect to when you play reserves.

Barring a trade, Scutero is your SS and he at least gets on base and catches the ball. McDonald is the reserve of course and that's not likely to change. Inglett of course backs up 2B (and if Rolen's on the shelf that presses Mcdonald into full time play which is a big offensive hit too)

The Jays have settled on their starting catcher - I don't like him but there's no getting around it. That's everything one can possibly do in the field accounted for except reserve catcher.

Plus, of course, they need a DH.

So yeah, baring we find a way to pry loose JJ Hardy or some such - it's mostly minor stuff outside the DH question.

We need a decent reserve catcher (out of  a pool which included Barnett, Bard, and Ross on the major league level and House on the minor league level)

We need someone with some potential at 3B in AAA - one of the Guzmans or Marte maybe (I know, I know, but there are no Dallas MacPhearsons lying around) - maybe Russel Branyan if you can get him to play in the minors. If we had a guy like Branyan parked, then if Rolen went down you wouldn't compromise your offense in other places by redirecting Inglett and Bautista to splitting 3B.

and we could gamble a flier on a couple of one-year stopgaps for the rotation on make-good deals.

Pretty much minor parts.

Is that a playoff team? i think the odds are against that, but it's not a bad team and it's one with an outside chance. Kinda like the Twins. And if you break it down, that's about all you can get without spending a boatload of money. You can say "we need a better 1B or a better 3B" but when you look at the available talent out there...there's not a lot of chance that you can do that.
Likewise, if you spend a bunch of money on a SP like Sheets (as an example) then you are tying up a rotation spot and a bunch of money in future years that could be better used on someone else.

If all we did the rest of the winter was plug in a good DH (be it a high profile guy like Bradley or a more creative solution like Juan Rivera or trading for Blalock or something) and then come up with a decent hitting reserve catcher and a good AAA fallback 3B and called it a day.....I'd still say we're going to have a decent little team with a puncher's chance to take advantage if other teams struggle for whatever reason.

or a more creative solution like Juan Rivera

His name has been bandied about a fair bit in these parts and I don't know why. A few years ago, in his mid-20's, before his broken leg, I'd have argued that he was an undervalued talent, especially given his good defense. But now in his 30's, with limited on-base skills and his peak behind him, I don't see him as a sleeper DH.

Bautista looked atrocious in limited (thankfully) appearances at 1B.

Bautista looked atrocious in limited (thankfully) appearances at 1B.


Well yeah, had he ever played even one game there before?

Give Butter the spring to work with him and he'll be competent. If you can play a decent 3B you can play 1B with a bit of teaching.

At age 25-27, Bautista has put up a .256/.354/.461 line against LHP in the weaker league.  That's better than Overbay does against portsiders, but not enough to make much of a difference bearing in mind that Overbay is a better fielder.  Bautista can fill in during Rolen's injuries as well, but actually Joe Inglett is a better match because he allows the manager to give Rolen a rest periodically while gaining the platoon advantage.

Say one thing about Arencibia, he's working on his clutch OBP by taking a cue from Reed Johnson.

That game where Bautista made the 3 errors at first was an important game. I know we were like light years behind Boston but we played them like 6 times in 10 days and a sweep would have gained so much ground, but Gaston wrote the lineup card in Bautista's favour because we were facing a lefty (Lester?)... oh well, whatcha gonna do!

Anyway, this just in, Furcal is garnering strong interest from the Pirates which absolutely baffles me! Why in the world would a small market team want to handcuff themselves with a $12 mil/a year shortstop?!?
Anyway, so they're trying to rid themselves of Jack Wilson and his $7.4 mil salary (plus $600K buyout because there's a club option of $8.6 in '10 instead... who would pick him up at that price, really!?!?).
Detroit is apparently prepared to make a deal, and I think the Jays should throw their names in the hat as well.

I've seen video of this guy and defensively he's a wiz! He's just as good as Johnny Mac. At the plate though, he's either a .260/.315/.350 hitter or a very good hitter .300/.350/.460. I think that if we can present a salary swap trade (i.e. Frasor, Scutaro, Wolfe for Wilson), then we'll have a pretty good shortstop and shed some salary. Perhaps we can even pry away some of their underachieving young arms: Dumatrait, Snell, Gorzelanny or Duke... I think Snell is more likely because he just signed a fairly big deal; also we could take Sanchez instead who is due to make $6.1 mil next year with a vesting option of $8 mil if he gets 635 plate appearances. HIs arrival could move Hill over to SS.

Btw, Da Box doesn't give much love to Jason Frasor.
"Carlson, Frasor stranding runners: According to The Sports Xchange notes: A revealing stat showing the effectiveness of relievers is the number of inherited runners they have allowed to score. It is a far better measuring stick than a reliever's ERA. On the Jays, LHP Jesse Carlson is the most effective reliever they have when it comes to stranding runners. Of the 35 runners he has inherited this season, just four have scored. A surprising second on the club is RHP Jason Frasor, who has inherited 28 runners and allowed four to score. Carlson's ERA in 44 appearances is 2.00, while Frasor, who has made 36 appearances, has an ERA of 3.71. "
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/448928

"Serious Baseball: What Makes a Good Relief Pitcher?"
http://www.athomeplate.com/sb92605.shtml

More on why Frasor is really good
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/touchingbase/2008/10/relief-report-the-08-finale.html

"The Measure of a Middle Reliever"
http://clevelandtribeblog.blogspot.com/2007/06/measure-of-middle-reliever.html

At age 25-27, Bautista has put up a .256/.354/.461 line against LHP in the weaker league

That's not the three-year stats ESPN reports. They have it:

.263 - .370 - .500 - .870


Given the fact that Overbay's OPS v. LHP was .540 in 2008, even the stat line you reported would be a considerable upgrade (albeit I don't expect he'll be that weak vs lefties again)

If all we did the rest of the winter was plug in a good DH (be it a high profile guy like Bradley or a more creative solution like Juan Rivera or trading for Blalock or something) and then come up with a decent hitting reserve catcher and a good AAA fallback 3B and called it a day.....I'd still say we're going to have a decent little team with a puncher's chance to take advantage if other teams struggle for whatever reason.

How about Scott Thorman, 2000 first rounder by the Atlanta Braves. Although he fell out of favor after his struggle and the arrival of Teixeira and Kotchman, Thorman is still young enough as a post corner infielder prospect  to play at AAA.